Domestic Macro - Demand Side - As of July 17, 2025, retail sales of passenger cars reached 571,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 5.7%, but a month-on-month decrease of 6.7%[2] - The average number of domestic flights in July was 14,500, a month-on-month increase of 13.08% and a year-on-year increase of 2.28%[2] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) averaged 1630.4 in July, a month-on-month decrease of 2.7% and a year-on-year decrease of 14.8%[2] Domestic Macro - Production Side - As of July 20, 2025, the average operating rate of blast furnaces decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 83.35%[3] - The operating rate of asphalt plants increased by 6.58 percentage points to 32.4%[3] - The operating rate of rebar production increased by 0.36 percentage points to 43.06%[3] Price Performance - As of July 18, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork increased by 0.2% week-on-week, while the average wholesale price of 28 monitored vegetables decreased by 0.09%[2] - WTI and Brent crude oil prices fell by 1.44% and 1.05% respectively as of July 18, 2025[3] - The price of glass increased by 8.66% due to the "anti-involution" policy and a decrease in production[3] Fiscal and Investment - This week, new special bonds issued amounted to 123 billion, with local general bonds at 19 billion, achieving a 60.8% issuance progress[3] - The issuance of special bonds (excluding debt relief) reached 1,315 billion, with a 53.0% progress[3] Overseas Macro - The U.S. CPI for June was 2.7% year-on-year, with core CPI at 2.9%, indicating controlled inflation despite tariff impacts[4] - The U.S. retail sales nominal month-on-month growth was 0.6%, exceeding expectations primarily due to price increases rather than volume[4]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market continues to gain momentum with accelerated rotation of market hotspots, as evidenced by the performance of major indices [1][2] - For the week of July 14 to July 18, the Hang Seng Index rose by 2.84%, the Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 5.53%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index climbed by 3.44% [2][4] - Among the ten sectors in the Hong Kong stock market, all but the real estate sector saw gains, with healthcare, information technology, and consumer staples leading the way with increases of 9.52%, 4.16%, and 3.92% respectively [2][7] Group 2 - The average daily trading volume on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange for the week was HKD 246.725 billion, an increase of HKD 4.213 billion from the previous week [2][13] - Southbound capital recorded a net inflow of HKD 21.456 billion, which is a decrease of HKD 4.899 billion compared to the previous week [2][13] - The price-to-earnings (PE) and price-to-book (PB) ratios for the Hang Seng Index as of July 18 were 11.04 and 1.16, respectively, both of which are at the 81% and 82% percentile levels since 2019 [2][18] Group 3 - The report highlights that the overall valuation of the Hong Kong stock market is relatively low compared to global equity markets, with the Hang Seng Index's risk premium at 4.62%, which is at the 8% percentile since 2010 [2][20] - The report suggests that sectors benefiting from favorable policies, such as stablecoin concept stocks, innovative pharmaceuticals, AI industry chains, and "anti-involution" industries, should be closely monitored [2][37] - The performance of companies exceeding expectations in their mid-year reports is expected to rebound, indicating potential investment opportunities [2][38]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market continues to gain momentum with accelerated rotation of market hotspots, as evidenced by the performance of major indices [1][2] - For the week of July 14 to July 18, the Hang Seng Index rose by 2.84%, the Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 5.53%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index climbed by 3.44% [2][4] - Among the ten sectors in the Hong Kong stock market, all but the real estate sector saw gains, with healthcare, information technology, and consumer staples leading the way with increases of 9.52%, 4.16%, and 3.92% respectively [2][7] Group 2 - The average daily trading volume on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange for the week was HKD 246.725 billion, an increase of HKD 4.213 billion from the previous week [2][13] - Southbound capital recorded a net inflow of HKD 21.456 billion, which is a decrease of HKD 4.899 billion compared to the previous week [2][13] - The price-to-earnings (PE) and price-to-book (PB) ratios for the Hang Seng Index as of July 18 were 11.04 and 1.16, respectively, both reflecting increases of 2.69% from the previous week [2][18] Group 3 - The report highlights that the overall valuation of the Hong Kong stock market is relatively low compared to global equity markets, with the Hang Seng Index's risk premium at 4.62%, indicating a favorable investment environment [2][20] - The report suggests focusing on sectors that may benefit from favorable policies, such as stablecoin concept stocks, innovative pharmaceuticals, AI industry chains, and sectors showing better-than-expected interim performance [2][37][38] - The report notes that the performance of the Chinese economy remains resilient, with GDP growth of 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, and a strong industrial output growth of 6.8% in June [2][36]

Domestic Macro - Demand Side - The travel market is heating up during the summer, with domestic flight numbers averaging 14,500 per day, a 13.08% increase month-on-month and a 2.28% increase year-on-year[2] - Retail sales of passenger cars reached 571,000 units in the first two weeks of July, a year-on-year increase of 5.7%, but a month-on-month decrease of 6.7%[2] Domestic Macro - Production Side - The average operating rate of blast furnaces decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 83.35% as of July 20, while the operating rate of coke ovens fell by 0.94 percentage points to 72.93%[2] - The operating rate of asphalt plants increased by 6.58 percentage points to 32.4%, indicating significant growth in real estate infrastructure[2] Price Performance - As of July 18, the average wholesale price of pork rose by 0.2% week-on-week, while the average wholesale price of 28 monitored vegetables fell by 0.09%[2] - The PPI showed a decline in oil prices, with WTI and Brent crude oil prices dropping by 1.44% and 1.05%, respectively[3] Fiscal and Investment - This week saw the issuance of special government bonds increase significantly, with 123 billion yuan in new special bonds and 1,315 billion yuan in new special bonds (excluding debt relief) issued, marking a notable acceleration in issuance[3] - The cement shipment rate has rebounded, indicating an increase in construction activity, particularly in water conservancy and public facilities projects[3] Overseas Macro - The U.S. inflation rate for June was 2.7% year-on-year, with core inflation at 2.9%, indicating manageable inflation levels despite tariff impacts[4] - The U.S. "GENIUS Act" and other cryptocurrency-related bills have passed the House, supporting the development of private sector digital currencies and reinforcing the dollar's position[3]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook on the AI sector, highlighting significant growth potential and investment opportunities in both domestic and international markets [4][9]. Core Insights - The AI sector is experiencing a robust growth trajectory, with the U.S. AI industry showing an 80.19% increase since the beginning of 2024, significantly outperforming the Nasdaq index, which rose by 38.47% during the same period [9][13]. - Domestic AI tools are rapidly gaining market share through low-cost strategies, fostering user habits that could lead to long-term profitability [9][12]. - The report emphasizes the importance of building a complete AI ecosystem in China, driven by domestic innovation and a large user base, which is expected to enhance the commercial viability of AI applications [9][34]. Summary by Sections 1. U.S. AI Market Review - The U.S. AI sector has shown a clear upward trend in 2024, driven by technological advancements and product upgrades, with significant contributions from major companies like OpenAI and Google [13][17]. - The report notes that the AI sector's performance is supported by macroeconomic improvements and increased investor interest in AI-related stocks [17][21]. 2. Comparison of U.S. and Chinese AI Industries - The U.S. maintains a lead in AI due to early investments and advancements in foundational research and chip technology, while China is rapidly catching up through policy support and a rich application landscape [24][28]. - Chinese companies are narrowing the performance gap with innovative models and open-source strategies, which are expected to enhance their competitive edge [24][30]. 3. AI Applications Across Industries - The report categorizes AI applications into various sectors, including advertising, content generation, e-commerce, and education, highlighting their transformative potential [11][47]. - AI's integration into advertising is particularly emphasized, with advancements in content generation and targeted ad placements driving efficiency and effectiveness [47][52]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies such as Alibaba, Meitu, Kuaishou, and others that are well-positioned to benefit from the ongoing AI revolution [9][12]. - It suggests that the ongoing evolution of foundational AI models will facilitate broader application across industries, leading to significant investment opportunities [9][12].

Group 1: Middle East Geopolitical Risks - The Middle East region has high geopolitical uncertainty, with structural conflicts persisting despite temporary de-escalations[5] - The potential for localized control or conflict in the Strait of Hormuz poses significant risks to global shipping and energy supply[6] - In extreme scenarios, a blockade of the Strait could lead to a supply gap of approximately 12.7% of global oil demand[6] Group 2: Impact on Global Supply Chains - If conflicts escalate, oil and chemical transport through the Strait of Hormuz could decrease by 25% compared to pre-conflict levels[6] - Asian economies, particularly China, India, Japan, and South Korea, face the highest exposure to risks from Middle Eastern energy supplies[7] - The chemical industry will be directly impacted, with disruptions likely to affect downstream sectors such as transportation, pharmaceuticals, and electronics[8] Group 3: China's Response and Strategies - China must diversify its import sources for products heavily reliant on Middle Eastern supplies, particularly in energy and chemicals[8] - Key products at risk include liquefied propane and butane (50.5% reliance), crude oil and asphalt (48.2%), and various chemical compounds (42.4%)[8] - The report suggests enhancing domestic production capabilities and exploring alternative import channels from countries like Canada, Algeria, and Brazil[73]

Group 1: Core CPI Trends - Core CPI has shown continuous recovery since February, with a year-on-year increase of 0.7% in June, marking a 0.1 percentage point rise from the previous month and the highest in nearly 14 months[1] - The increase in gold prices, the "old-for-new" policy supporting durable goods prices, and a moderate recovery in service prices are the main drivers of the core CPI's sustained recovery[1] - In the third quarter, core CPI is expected to continue rising due to support from durable consumer goods and summer travel demand, while a slight decline may occur in the fourth quarter[1] Group 2: Gold Prices and Durable Goods - Gold prices have been fluctuating at a high level, with a year-on-year increase of 41.3% in June and a cumulative increase of 38.3% from January to June[1] - The contribution of gold and platinum jewelry prices to the core CPI's year-on-year growth is estimated at approximately 0.29 percentage points, accounting for nearly half of the June core CPI increase[1] - Durable goods prices are expected to rise initially due to the "old-for-new" policy but may experience a slight decline later in the year due to early demand release and high base effects[1] Group 3: Service Prices and Employment Impact - Service prices have shown a year-on-year increase of 0.5% in June, with a cumulative growth of 0.4% from January to June[1] - The rental market is influenced by the youth unemployment rate, which has improved, leading to a narrowing of rental price declines, thus supporting core CPI recovery[1] - The upcoming graduation season, with an estimated 12.22 million graduates, may increase pressure on the job market, potentially slowing the recovery of rental prices in the second half of the year[1]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook on the AI sector, highlighting significant growth potential and investment opportunities in both domestic and international markets [4][9]. Core Insights - The AI sector is experiencing a robust growth trajectory, with the U.S. AI industry showing an 80.19% increase since the beginning of 2024, significantly outperforming the Nasdaq index, which rose by 38.47% during the same period [9][13]. - Domestic AI tools are rapidly gaining market share through low-cost strategies, fostering user habits that could lead to long-term profitability [9][12]. - The report emphasizes the importance of building a complete AI ecosystem in China, driven by domestic innovation and a large user base, which is expected to enhance the commercial value of AI applications [9][34]. Summary by Sections 1. U.S. AI Market Review - The U.S. AI sector has shown a clear upward trend in 2024, driven by technological advancements and product upgrades, with significant contributions from major companies like OpenAI and Google [13][17]. - The report notes that the AI applications in the U.S. have established a solid commercial foundation, particularly in B2B models, which is expected to diversify application scenarios and promote industry development [17][21]. 2. Comparison of U.S. and Chinese AI Industries - The U.S. maintains a lead in AI due to early advantages in foundational research and chip technology, while China is accelerating its catch-up through policy support and a rich application landscape [24][28]. - Chinese companies are narrowing the performance gap with innovative models and open-source strategies, which are expected to enhance global AI development [24][28]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies such as Alibaba, Meitu, Kuaishou, and others that are well-positioned to benefit from the ongoing AI revolution [9][12]. - It highlights the potential for significant returns in the AI sector, particularly as applications become more integrated across various industries [9][12]. 4. AI Application Categories - The report categorizes AI applications into several areas, including advertising, content generation, e-commerce, and education, each showing substantial growth potential [11][47]. - AI's role in advertising is particularly emphasized, with advancements in content generation and targeted marketing strategies expected to reshape the industry [47][48]. 5. Future Market Projections - The report forecasts that China's AI core industry will exceed 750 billion yuan by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 14.5% expected through 2030 [34][36]. - The increasing penetration of AI across various sectors, including healthcare and education, is anticipated to drive significant market growth [34][36].

Group 1: Core CPI Trends - Core CPI has shown continuous recovery since February, with a year-on-year increase of 0.7% in June, marking a 0.1 percentage point rise from the previous month and the highest in nearly 14 months[1] - The increase in gold prices, the "old-for-new" policy supporting durable goods prices, and a moderate recovery in service prices are the main drivers of the core CPI recovery[1] - In the third quarter, core CPI growth is expected to continue rising due to support from durable consumer goods and summer travel demand, but a slight decline may occur in the fourth quarter[1] Group 2: Gold Prices and Durable Goods - Gold prices have been on an upward trend, with a year-on-year increase of 41.3% in June and a cumulative increase of 38.3% from January to June[1] - The contribution of gold and platinum jewelry prices to the core CPI year-on-year growth is estimated at approximately 0.29 percentage points, nearly half of the June core CPI growth[1] - Durable goods prices are expected to rise initially due to the "old-for-new" policy but may see a slight decline later in the year due to early demand release and high base effects[1] Group 3: Service Prices and Employment Impact - Service prices have shown recovery, with a year-on-year increase of 0.5% in June and a cumulative growth of 0.4% from January to June[1] - The rental market is influenced by youth unemployment rates, with a correlation between rental demand and employment conditions, particularly for recent graduates[1] - The upcoming graduation season, with an estimated 12.22 million graduates, may increase pressure on the job market and slow the recovery of rental prices in the second half of the year[1]

Geopolitical Risks - The Middle East region has high geopolitical uncertainty, with structural conflicts persisting despite temporary de-escalation[8] - Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz remains a significant risk factor for global shipping, even if complete blockage is unlikely[9] Impact on Global Supply Chains - If conflicts escalate, oil and chemical transport through the Strait of Hormuz could decrease by 25%, affecting over 12.7% of global oil demand[10] - In extreme scenarios, a blockade could leave a supply gap of approximately 13.1 million barrels per day, equating to 12.7% of global oil demand[10] Regional Vulnerabilities - Asian economies, particularly China, India, Japan, and South Korea, face the highest risks due to their reliance on Middle Eastern oil and gas[11] - In 2025, China is projected to import 5.4 million barrels per day, making it the largest importer through the Strait[58] Sector-Specific Impacts - The energy and chemical sectors will experience the most immediate impacts, with potential disruptions cascading to transportation, pharmaceuticals, and electronics[11] - High-tech manufacturing, particularly in Israel, may face supply chain disruptions, affecting exports of weapons, medical devices, and semiconductor components[11] Recommendations for China - China should diversify its import sources for products heavily reliant on the Middle East, such as fertilizers (87.7% dependency) and liquefied propane (50.5% dependency)[15] - The country is encouraged to enhance domestic production capabilities and explore alternative suppliers from countries like Canada, Algeria, and Brazil[87]