1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The current adjustment of the dividend yield has alleviated the pressure of the over - valued bond market, and the odds have increased marginally. The current cost - performance advantage of bonds is gradually emerging, which may provide a more favorable valuation support environment for the phased layout of interest - rate bonds [7][18]. - The liquidity environment provides a relatively stable operating foundation for the bond market. The social financing growth rate may peak in the third quarter and then decline trend - wise, and the expected impact of structural changes on the bond market is limited. The bond market faces a relatively friendly liquidity environment [7][24]. - The central bank has clearly shown its attitude of protecting liquidity, and the money market is expected to return to a balanced and loose state. The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond may decline to around 1.6%. It is recommended to pay continuous attention to the yield curve and various convex point opportunities, and the spread may continue to be flattened in late July. It is advisable to first focus on interest - rate bonds and Tier 2 capital bonds, and then on credit bonds [7][34]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Recent Bond Market Callback - From July 7th to July 16th, the yields of the bond market generally increased. The yields of the 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury bonds increased by 2bp and 3bp respectively, and the short - end yields increased more significantly. The adjustment of Tier 2 capital bonds was more obvious [5][12]. Bond Market Odds Gradually Rising - The adjustment of the dividend yield has alleviated the pressure of the over - valued bond market, and the odds have increased marginally. The decline of the CSI 300 dividend yield from the May average of 3.47% to 3.0% on July 14th is conducive to the inflow of funds into the bond market [7][18]. - The liquidity environment provides a stable foundation for the bond market. The social financing growth rate is expected to reach a high of about 9.0% in July and then decline to around 8.2% by the end of the year. The support of government bonds for social financing may weaken in the fourth quarter, and the substitution effect of special refinancing bonds on RMB loans will continue. The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy, and the bond market's liquidity environment is friendly [7][24]. 10 - year Treasury Bond Has Certain Odds Above 1.65%, Recommend First Interest - rate and Tier 2 Capital Bonds, Then Credit Bonds - Due to the disturbance of the money market at the beginning of the quarter and the strengthening of the equity market, the Tier 2 capital bonds and credit bonds with previously compressed spreads have given back their gains, especially the medium - and long - term and some medium - and low - grade varieties. However, the core logic of Tier 2 capital bonds has not changed [33]. - Since July 10th, the central bank has shifted to net investment in open - market operations. The money market is expected to return to a balanced and loose state, and the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond may decline to around 1.6%. It is recommended to seize the layout opportunities after the adjustment, with medium - and short - term varieties as the basis for coupon income, and medium - and high - grade 3 - 5 - year varieties having better elasticity in interest - rate band operations [34].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Positive" and maintained [8] Core Insights - Since Q2 2025, the pressure on volume and price has continued to increase, approaching policy thresholds, posing new challenges to the goal of stabilizing the market. Expectations for policy easing are gradually strengthening, with significant meetings potentially serving as a buying window for the sector. The trading level in July is expected to be lower than in September [2][11] - The report suggests prioritizing high-quality real estate companies with relatively low inventory pressure and strong product capabilities. It also recommends considering companies undergoing marginal improvements and debt restructuring. In the context of low interest rates and asset shortages, leading enterprises in commercial real estate, property management, and brokerage with stable cash flows and potential high dividends remain medium to long-term investment opportunities [2][11] Summary by Sections Market Performance - From January to June 2025, national sales of commercial housing decreased by 5.5% in value and 3.5% in area year-on-year, with the decline in sales accelerating in June to 10.8% in value and 5.5% in area. The sales area decline aligns with trends in key cities and top 100 real estate companies [11] - In June, the price index for new and second-hand homes in 70 cities fell by 0.3% and 0.6% month-on-month, respectively, with the decline in first-tier cities also accelerating [11] Construction and Investment Trends - The year-on-year decline in new construction area from January to June 2025 was 20.0%, with a smaller decline of 9.4% in June. The completion area also saw a year-on-year decline of 14.8% [11] - The total funds available to real estate companies decreased by 6.2% year-on-year, with a notable decline in deposits and pre-sales [11] Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the most challenging period for the real estate industry may be nearing its end, with expectations of double-digit declines in construction and investment for the year 2025. Sales performance will depend on the effectiveness of future policies [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][6]. Core Insights - As of the end of June, the company's PE ratio stands at 37.51x, which is at the 55th percentile historically since 2016, indicating a certain level of investment value. It is expected that with the continued enhancement of the mutual access policy in the Hong Kong capital market, liquidity in the Hong Kong stock market will continue to rise, leading to an increase in overall market activity and valuation. The company is projected to achieve revenues and other income of HKD 27.4 billion, 29.9 billion, and 32.4 billion for 2025-2027, with net profits attributable to shareholders of HKD 16.8 billion, 17.6 billion, and 19.4 billion, corresponding to PE valuations of 32.2x, 30.8x, and 27.9x respectively [2][48]. Market Environment - The Hong Kong stock market continued its upward trend in June, driven by domestic policy support, with the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index rising by 20.0% and 18.7% respectively compared to the end of 2024. The average daily trading volume (ADT) for the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in June was HKD 230.2 billion, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 9.4% and a year-on-year increase of 106.9% [11][17]. - The IPO scale in June saw 15 new stocks listed, totaling HKD 27.9 billion, which is a significant year-on-year increase of 606% despite a month-on-month decrease of 51% [27][28]. Business Segments - **Spot Market**: The overall Hong Kong stock market showed high trading activity, with the ADT for the Hong Kong stock market reaching HKD 230.2 billion in June, up 9.4% month-on-month and 106.9% year-on-year. Northbound trading ADT was HKD 162.9 billion, and southbound trading ADT was HKD 120.8 billion, reflecting increases of 7.5% and 27.9% month-on-month respectively [8][17]. - **Derivatives Market**: In June, the average daily volume (ADV) for futures was 57.3 million contracts, down 2.4% month-on-month and 8.4% year-on-year, while the ADV for options was 82.0 million contracts, up 1.9% month-on-month and 9.7% year-on-year [21]. - **Commodity Market**: The LME daily average trading volume in June was 749,000 contracts, reflecting increases of 6.0% month-on-month and 11.2% year-on-year [24]. - **Primary Market**: The number of new listings in the Hong Kong stock market for the first half of 2025 reached 43, with a total scale of HKD 1,067 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 688.6% [27]. Investment Income - As of the end of June, the HIBOR rates for 6 months, 1 month, and overnight were 2.38%, 0.73%, and 0.03% respectively, showing a month-on-month increase while year-on-year rates have decreased [36].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [8] Core Insights - Recent updates of overseas large models have led to significant performance improvements, driving the AI application landing phase [4][5] - The demand for computing infrastructure is surging due to the increased usage of large models, indicating a high growth cycle for the computing infrastructure industry [5][28] - Domestic AI applications are growing but at a slower pace compared to overseas counterparts, with potential acceleration as domestic models close the performance gap [6][34] Summary by Sections Overseas Large Models and AI Application Growth - Continuous updates from major overseas model developers like xAI, Google, and Anthropic have enhanced model performance, leading to a substantial increase in AI application usage [4][16] - For instance, Google's AI Token monthly usage surged from 9.7 trillion in April 2024 to 480 trillion in April 2025, marking a 50-fold increase [25] Domestic AI Model Development - Domestic AI applications are experiencing growth, with notable MAU figures for various applications as of June 2025, such as Quark (15,618 million) and Doubao (12,594 million) [31][34] - The performance gap between domestic and overseas models is narrowing, particularly with advancements from companies like DeepSeek and Qwen [34] Investment Recommendations - Focus on infrastructure tailored to Chinese characteristics, emphasizing data, computing optimization, and adaptation, particularly in IDC and domestic computing supply chains [7][38] - Highlight significant application scenarios for AI, such as education, justice, and healthcare, where AI applications are expected to thrive [7][38]

Report Overview - Report Title: "How to View Photovoltaic Convertible Bonds under the Background of 'Anti-Involution' - Convertible Bond Weekly Report 20250712" - Report Type: Fixed Income Asset Allocation | Comment Report - Report Date: 2025-07-16 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - From July 7 to July 12, 2025, the convertible bond market continued its mild recovery, with increased trading activity. Medium - sized and convertible bonds with expected elasticity performed relatively well. The equity market was highly differentiated, with low - valuation and cyclical manufacturing sectors becoming the main investment directions [2][6]. - The photovoltaic equipment sector has low market attention and congestion. Photovoltaic convertible bonds have cost - effective valuations. Driven by the "anti - involution" policy, the industry's fundamentals are expected to recover, and the holdings of active equity funds may gradually increase [2][6]. - The valuation of the convertible bond market is differentiated by the parity range. The low - parity range shows significant differentiation, while the valuation of the high - parity range has increased. The implied volatility has declined, and the market sentiment is cautious [2][6]. - The primary market supply of convertible bonds is steadily released, and the clause game shows intensified differences. It is recommended to focus on the layout opportunities in the low - valuation and high - safety - margin directions, taking into account the rhythm and rotation [2][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Weekly Review - **Photovoltaic Equipment Sector**: The market attention and capital participation of the photovoltaic equipment sector are at a relatively low historical level. The allocation ratio of active funds has significantly decreased, and the turnover and trading volume are weak. There are signs of chip clearing, and the congestion is at a relatively low historical level. Under the "anti - involution" policy, the supply - side clearing is expected to repair the fundamentals. Photovoltaic convertible bonds have strong bond - bottom returns and valuation advantages, showing valuation repair and risk - return matching [9]. - **A - share Market**: The A - share market continued to rise in shock, with obvious style differentiation. Funds were concentrated on low - valuation and cyclical manufacturing sectors. The real estate, steel and other sectors led the gains, and the trading activity increased significantly, reflecting the strengthened expectation of valuation repair. There was increased differentiation within the growth direction, with some sectors maintaining high popularity and others experiencing a decline in trading. The trading rhythm of the market accelerated, and the rotation characteristics were enhanced [9]. - **Convertible Bond Market**: The convertible bond market continued to rise moderately, with increased trading activity. Medium - sized convertible bonds performed well, and the style slightly inclined to elastic varieties. The valuation of the convertible bond market showed a differentiated trend according to the parity range. The implied volatility fluctuated and declined, and the sentiment became more cautious. In terms of industries, the financial and pharmaceutical sectors attracted capital inflows, and the cyclical sectors were relatively strong [9]. - **Primary Market of Convertible Bonds**: The primary market of convertible bonds maintained a stable rhythm. One convertible bond was open for subscription, two new bonds were listed, and five companies updated their issuance plans. The issuance momentum is expected to continue to be steadily released. In terms of clause games, there were no proposals for downward revisions, and some bonds clearly stated not to revise downward. Multiple varieties announced forced redemptions, and some promised not to redeem in advance [9]. 3.2 Market Theme Weekly Review - **Equity Theme**: The A - share market continued its structural differentiation, with increased short - term trading activity. Gaming funds continued to concentrate on high - elasticity directions, and the financial technology theme was strong. The new energy sector was highly differentiated, and the digital economy showed a structural recovery. The overall market trading sentiment was high, and the theme rotation accelerated [24]. - **Convertible Bond Theme**: The convertible bond market continued to rise, with the increase rate moderately narrowing. The trading activity reached a recent high, and medium - sized convertible bonds performed better. The valuation of the convertible bond market was differentiated by the parity and market price ranges. The implied volatility declined, and the market sentiment was slightly cautious. The non - banking, coal, and pharmaceutical sectors led the gains, and the trading volume was concentrated in the pharmaceutical and biochemical sectors [27]. 3.3 Market Weekly Tracking - **Main Stock Indexes**: The main A - share stock indexes continued to strengthen, with small and medium - sized and science - innovation stocks performing prominently. The market capital showed a net outflow, but the scale of the net outflow decreased, indicating a marginal improvement in market sentiment [29][30]. - **Industry Performance**: The A - share market showed a structural market dominated by low - valuation sectors. The real estate sector led the gains, followed by the steel, comprehensive, and non - banking financial sectors. The automobile sector led the decline, and some previous hot sectors faced correction pressure. The market capital was concentrated on low - valuation cyclical sectors and also considered structural opportunities in the growth track [34]. - **Convertible Bond Market**: The convertible bond market continued to rise, with the increase rate moderately narrowing. Medium - sized convertible bonds performed better, and the trading activity reached a recent high. The valuation of the convertible bond market was differentiated by the parity and market price ranges. The implied volatility declined, and the market sentiment was slightly cautious. The non - banking, coal, and social service sectors led the gains, and the pharmaceutical, basic chemical, and power equipment sectors had the highest trading volume [45][55]. 3.4 Primary Market Tracking and Clause Game - **New Bond Issuance**: One convertible bond was open for subscription (Guanghe Convertible Bond), and two new bonds were listed (Huachen Convertible Bond and Luwei Convertible Bond). Five listed companies updated their convertible bond issuance plans, including three accepted by the exchange and two approved by the general meeting of shareholders [66][67]. - **Clause Game**: There were no proposals for downward revisions of convertible bonds during the week, and some bonds clearly stated not to revise downward. Multiple varieties announced forced redemptions, and some promised not to redeem in advance. There were 3 convertible bonds that announced they were expected to trigger downward revisions, 13 that announced no downward revisions, 2 that announced they were expected to trigger redemptions, 3 that announced no early redemptions, and 4 that announced early redemptions [75][80].

Group 1: Foreign Capital Flow - In Q2 2025, northbound funds showed a net inflow of approximately 53.74 billion CNY, an increase compared to Q1 2025[2] - Foreign capital in A-shares saw significant net inflows in the financial, industrial, telecommunications, and healthcare sectors, each exceeding 10 billion CNY[6] - In contrast, foreign capital in the Hong Kong stock market experienced a net outflow of about 113.3 billion HKD in Q2 2025 compared to Q1 2025[6] Group 2: Sector Performance - The technology and financial sectors were among the top performers in the Hong Kong market, contributing to significant profit-taking activities in Q2 2025[8] - Specific A-share manufacturing leaders attracted substantial foreign investment during their Hong Kong IPOs, particularly in the energy storage sector[19] - The banking sector saw a divergence in foreign investment, with northbound funds increasing their holdings in A-share banks while foreign intermediaries reduced their holdings in Hong Kong banks[27] Group 3: Investment Trends - The top sectors for foreign capital inflow in the Hong Kong market included information technology, industrials, and essential consumer goods[6] - Notably, the energy storage devices and telecommunications equipment sectors attracted significant foreign investment in Hong Kong[20] - The report highlights a trend where foreign capital is favoring technology and new consumption sectors in Hong Kong, while A-shares are more focused on industrial and financial sectors[22]

丨证券研究报告丨 公司研究丨点评报告丨四川路桥（600039.SH） 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490520080022 SAC：S0490522060005 SFC：BUT917 张弛 张智杰 袁志芃 龚子逸 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 [Table_Title] 二季度订单加速增长，省内基建持续景气 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 公司发布二季度经营情况公告，公司二季度中标总额 375.59 亿元，同比增长 25%，上半年累 计中标 722.4 亿元，同比增长 22.2%。 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 四川路桥（600039.SH） cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title2] 二季度订单加速增长，省内基建持续景气 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 公司发布二季度经营情况公告，公司二季度中标总额 375.59 亿元，同比增长 25%，上半年累 计中标 722.4 亿元，同比增长 22.2%。 事件评论 风险提示 1、省内基建推进不及预期； 2、蜀道集团支持力度不及预期。 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 丨证券 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 世界经济与海外市场丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 通胀如期回升，美联储或继续观望 ——美国 6 月 CPI 数据点评 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2025 年 6 月，美国 CPI 上升略超预期，核心 CPI 符合预期。那么结构上的走势有何具体变化？ 对美联储降息有何影响？其一，地缘局势升温，使能源环比涨幅上升。其二，汽车、服装环比 一下一上，核心商品通胀压力上升；住房通胀环比增速回落，核心服务通胀压力温和。往前看， 我们认为：短期，美国就业稳健、通胀温和、关税暂缓期延长，美联储决策空间充足，7 月大 概率继续观望；中期，各国贸易谈判的结果仍是重点，关税实质落地规模，及其对美国经济的 影响将是决定后续货币政策的关键。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 于博 敬成宇 SAC：S0490520090001 SFC：BUX667 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 通胀如期回升，美联储或继续观望 2] ——美国 6 月 CPI 数据点评 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the construction and engineering industry [10]. Core Insights - The Central Urban Work Conference held on July 14-15 emphasized the transition of urbanization in China from a rapid growth phase to a stable development phase, focusing on quality urban renewal rather than large-scale expansion [8][13]. - The conference outlined key tasks for urban development, including optimizing modern urban systems, building innovative cities, and enhancing livability and sustainability [13]. - The report highlights the historical significance of this conference, marking a shift towards high-quality urban development, contrasting with previous meetings that focused on rapid expansion and basic infrastructure [13]. - Future funding for urban renewal is expected to come from various sources, including special central budget investments and local government bonds, indicating potential for increased capital inflow into the sector [13]. - The report suggests that the construction sector should focus on leading companies and the entire design-construction-operation chain, particularly in urban renewal projects [13]. Summary by Sections Event Description - The Central Urban Work Conference took place in Beijing, with significant speeches from top leaders, indicating a strategic shift in urbanization policy [8][9]. Market Performance - The report includes a market performance comparison over the past 12 months, showing a relative performance of the construction and engineering sector against the CSI 300 index [11]. Related Research - The report references several related studies that discuss urban renewal and the construction industry's response to current challenges [12].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [10] Core Insights - In the first half of the year, narrow infrastructure investment reached 9.2 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%, with a sequential decrease of 1.0 percentage points. Broad infrastructure investment totaled 12.4 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.8%, with a sequential decrease of 1.2 percentage points [2][8][13] - Water conservancy investment growth has slowed down, while transportation investment has accelerated significantly. In June, water conservancy and public facility management investment recorded a negative growth of -5.2%, with a year-on-year decrease of -8.4%. In contrast, transportation investment increased by 9.5% year-on-year, with significant growth in railway and road investments [13] - Cement production showed weakness in June, but high-frequency data indicated improvement in July. Cement output in the first half of the year decreased by 4.3% year-on-year, while July data showed a slight recovery in demand [13] - The overall economic data for the first half of the year showed stable growth, with marginal weakening in investment. However, infrastructure is expected to remain supported throughout the year due to the gradual use of fiscal funds and new policies [13] - Emphasis on the investment value of central and state-owned construction enterprises, with potential "real dividend" attributes in certain quality segments and regions [13] Summary by Sections Infrastructure Investment - Narrow infrastructure investment was 9.2 trillion yuan, up 4.6% year-on-year, with a sequential decrease of 1.0 percentage points. Broad infrastructure investment was 12.4 trillion yuan, up 8.8% year-on-year, with a sequential decrease of 1.2 percentage points [2][8][13] Sector Performance - Water conservancy investment growth has turned negative, while transportation investment has accelerated. In June, water conservancy investment decreased by 5.2% month-on-month, while transportation investment increased by 9.5% year-on-year [13] Cement Production - Cement production in the first half of the year decreased by 4.3% year-on-year, with signs of recovery in July [13] Economic Outlook - The overall economic data indicates stable growth, with infrastructure expected to remain supported due to fiscal policies [13] Investment Opportunities - Focus on the investment value of central and state-owned construction enterprises, particularly in quality segments and regions [13]