新元肇启-电新行业投资观点 长江证券研究所电力设备与新能源研究小组 2025-06-12 %% %% %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 证券研究报告 • 证券研究报告 • 评级 看好 维持 分析师及联系人 | 分析师 邬博华 分析师 曹海花 | 分析师 叶之楠 | 分析师 司鸿历 | | --- | --- | --- | | SAC执业证书编号：S0490522030001 | SAC执业证书编号：S0490520090003 | SAC执业证书编号：S0490520080002 | | | | SFC执业证书编号：BUD284 | | 分析师 王耀 | 分析师 任佳惠 | 分析师 周圣钧 | | SAC执业证书编号：S0490524120006 | SAC执业证书编号：S0490524070005 | SAC执业证书编号：S0490524120003 | | SAC执业证书编号：S0490514040001 SFC执业证书编号：BQK482 分析师 袁澎 SAC执业证书编号：S0490524010001 | | | %% %% research.95579.com 2 01 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [3][8]. Core Viewpoints - The company is a high-quality phosphate chemical enterprise with a stable compound fertilizer business and rapid expansion of phosphate mining capacity, which is expected to drive performance growth [3][8]. - The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are estimated at 1.28 billion, 1.44 billion, and 1.56 billion yuan respectively [3][8]. Company Overview - The company has over 30 years of experience in compound fertilizer and is the first listed company in this sector. It focuses on the research, production, and sales of compound fertilizers, forming a synergistic development pattern with phosphate chemicals [5][18]. - The company has obtained mining rights for the Xiaogaozhai phosphate mine, with an annual production capacity of 2 million tons of phosphate ore and an additional 900,000 tons under construction [5][18]. - The company has a clear shareholding structure, and its revenue has been steadily increasing, with the contribution from phosphate mining continuing to rise [5][26]. Phosphate Mining - Phosphate ore is a strategic resource and is essential for the phosphate chemical industry, primarily used in fertilizers and various industrial applications [6][43]. - The global distribution of phosphate resources is uneven, and China has a relatively low phosphate ore reserve-to-production ratio, leading to its classification as a strategic mineral resource [6][49]. - The value of phosphate ore has been steadily increasing, with the price per ton rising from approximately 0.2 tons of corn in the 1960s to about 1.0 ton of corn in recent years [6][62]. Compound Fertilizer Business - The compound fertilizer industry in China has a stable demand, with annual consumption fluctuating around 50 million tons [7][18]. - The industry is experiencing consolidation, with leading companies expanding their competitive advantages through technology and supply chain integration [7][18]. - The company is one of the major producers of compound fertilizers in China, leveraging its high-quality phosphate resources to enhance its competitive position [7][18]. Financial Performance - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to be 3.31 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.1%, and a net profit of 410 million yuan, reflecting a significant increase of 57.7% [26][40]. - The contribution from phosphate mining has been substantial, with gross profit from this segment reaching 590 million yuan in 2024, accounting for 64.4% of total gross profit [26][40]. - The company has a generous dividend policy, planning to distribute at least 60% of its cumulative profits as dividends from 2024 to 2026, with a projected dividend of 270 million yuan for 2024 [26][40].

丨证券研究报告丨 公司研究丨点评报告丨青岛银行（002948.SZ） [Table_Title] 国信集团增持释放强烈信号，驱动价值重估 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 6 月 11 日公告国信集团拟通过其子公司增持青岛银行股份，增持后国信集团合计持有青岛银行 股份比例预计不超过 19.99%。增持释放强烈信号，明确看好中长期价值。2024 年末青岛国信 集团及其子公司合计持股比例 14.99%（其中 A 股 11.25%），为青岛银行第三大股东，此次增 持如果按照上限完成，青岛国信集团将上升为第一大股东。2023 年以来在新三年战略规划下， 迈入质效提升周期，2024 年以来经营业绩持续超预期，基本面推动价值重估，目前 A 股 2025 年预期 PB 估值仅 0.73x、H 股仅 0.55x，仍有显著修复空间。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 马祥云 盛悦菲 SAC：S0490521120002 SAC：S0490524070002 SFC：BUT916 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 青岛银行（002948.SZ） c ...

Inflation Data Summary - In May 2025, the US CPI increased by 2.4% year-on-year, slightly up from 2.3% in the previous month, matching market expectations[5] - Core CPI rose by 2.8% year-on-year, unchanged from the previous month but below the expected 2.9%[5] Monthly Changes - The overall CPI month-on-month growth rate fell to 0.1%, below the expected 0.2%[8] - Core CPI month-on-month growth also decreased to 0.1%, lower than the expected 0.3%[8] Sector Analysis - Food CPI month-on-month growth rose to 0.3%, driven by higher prices in meat, poultry, fish, and eggs, contributing 0.04 percentage points to the overall CPI[8] - Energy CPI month-on-month growth turned negative, contributing -0.06 percentage points to the overall CPI, indicating reduced inflation pressure in this sector[8] Core Goods and Services - Core goods CPI month-on-month growth was flat at 0.0%, with car prices continuing to decline and clothing prices dropping to -0.4%[8] - Housing inflation remained stable, with housing CPI month-on-month growth holding steady at 0.3%, contributing 0.11 percentage points to the overall CPI[8] Future Outlook - The report suggests that the Federal Reserve has ample decision-making space due to stable employment, declining inflation, and easing trade tensions, likely leading to a wait-and-see approach[8] - The outcome of international trade negotiations and the potential impact of tariffs on the US economy will be crucial for future monetary policy decisions[8] Risk Factors - There is a risk of inflation exceeding expectations, particularly with the ongoing uncertainty surrounding tariffs and trade policies, which could hinder the Fed's ability to lower interest rates[40]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [11]. Core Views - The report indicates that the domestic two-piece can prices and profitability are expected to recover, with the company actively seeking opportunities in overseas markets [7][9]. - The company's net profit for Q1 2025 is approximately 190 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 28%, primarily due to the pressure on two-piece can business profits [8]. - The completion of the acquisition of COFCO Packaging has significantly reduced the risk of over-reliance on a single customer, with the current major customer revenue proportion expected to drop to around 20% [8]. - The report anticipates that the two-piece can business will see a price increase in the second half of 2025, driven by rising aluminum processing fees and improved bargaining power [9]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The average market price of aluminum ingots (A00) for April-May 2025 is projected to be 19,990 yuan/ton, a decrease of 443 yuan/ton compared to the average price of 20,433 yuan/ton in Q1 2025 [2][7]. Financial Performance - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 1.414 billion yuan in 2025, with projected profits of 1.422 billion yuan in 2026 and 1.709 billion yuan in 2027, corresponding to P/E ratios of 11, 10, and 9 respectively [19]. Business Strategy - The company is focusing on integrating the operations of COFCO Packaging and relocating excess domestic production lines overseas, which is expected to optimize the supply-demand and competitive landscape for two-piece cans in China [9][15]. - The combined production capacity of the company and COFCO Packaging is estimated to be around 27.5 billion cans, leading to a market share of nearly 40%, significantly ahead of competitors [15]. Future Outlook - The report suggests that the company’s performance drivers may include the recovery of two-piece can gross margins, expansion of overseas business, improvement in domestic consumption demand, and an increase in the proportion of high-margin innovative products [15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the pet hospital industry [13]. Core Insights - The pet hospital industry is experiencing growth driven by the pet economy, with a projected market size of 51.7 billion yuan by 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 21% from 2016 to 2024. The industry is characterized by a fragmented market with many small players, but leading companies are advancing in chain operations and professional transformation to enhance profitability [4][9][21]. - The report emphasizes the need for standardization and replicability in personnel and management to achieve economies of scale, alongside the establishment of a specialized integrated diagnosis and treatment system focusing on tiered diagnosis and specialty construction to optimize resource allocation and improve profit margins [4][10][20]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The pet hospital market is expanding due to strong growth in the pet economy and the essential nature of pet care, with the market expected to reach 51.7 billion yuan in 2024. The market is currently fragmented, with leading companies accelerating their chain operations amidst a backdrop of high costs and low efficiency [9][21]. Industry Structure - The industry exhibits a "large market, many players, small shares" characteristic, with a low concentration level. As of 2024, there are 34,426 registered animal diagnosis institutions, but the top players hold only a small market share, indicating significant room for growth and consolidation [30][39]. Chain Operations and Professionalization - Chain operations are essential for growth, but rapid expansion can lead to high costs and low efficiency. The report suggests that successful chain hospitals must focus on standardizing operations and enhancing management practices to avoid pitfalls associated with rapid scaling [10][62]. - The establishment of a tiered diagnosis system and specialty services is crucial for optimizing medical resources and increasing profitability. This approach aligns with changing pet demographics and consumer expectations [10][34]. Company Spotlight: Ruipai Pet Hospital - Ruipai Pet Hospital, a leading chain in the industry, has over 600 locations across more than 70 cities, with an average annual revenue of over 3 million yuan per store. The company is expected to continue enhancing its chain rate and profitability through innovative management and specialized services [11][21].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [6] Core Insights - For FY2025 (April 1, 2024 - March 31, 2025), Deckers achieved revenue of $4.99 billion, a year-on-year increase of 16.3%, aligning with expectations [2][4] - Gross margin increased by 2.3 percentage points to 57.9%, primarily driven by a shift in product mix towards higher-margin products [2][4] - Q4 revenue was $1.02 billion, showing a year-on-year growth of 6.5%, with a gross margin increase of 0.5 percentage points to 56.7% [2][4] Revenue Breakdown - Annual performance was strong, but Q4 growth showed a significant slowdown [5] - By brand, UGG, HOKA, and other brands had annual revenues increasing by 13.1%, 23.6%, and 8.6% respectively, reaching $2.53 billion, $2.23 billion, and $220 million [5] - HOKA's revenue growth was robust across channels and regions, with DTC (Direct-to-Consumer) and wholesale channels growing by 23% and 24% respectively [5] - UGG's wholesale channel grew by 15% due to enhanced brand exposure through influential retailers, while DTC grew by 11% driven by global customer acquisition [5] Channel and Regional Performance - For the year, DTC and wholesale revenues were $2.13 billion and $2.86 billion, reflecting growth rates of 14.8% and 17.4% respectively [5] - Revenue from the U.S. and other regions was $3.19 billion and $1.80 billion, with growth rates of 11.3% and 26.3% respectively [5] - In Q4, HOKA and UGG revenues grew by 10% and 4% year-on-year, with HOKA facing challenges from weak market demand and UGG impacted by insufficient inventory of key styles [5] Inventory and Cost Implications - At the end of FY2025, the company's inventory increased by 4.4% to $500 million, indicating a relatively healthy inventory level [5] - Tariff uncertainties are expected to increase sales costs by up to $150 million in FY2026, with strategies in place to mitigate some of the impacts [5] Performance Guidance - The company expects Q1 FY2026 revenue to be between $890 million and $910 million, representing a year-on-year growth of 7.8% to 10.3%, with HOKA anticipated to grow at least in the double digits and UGG in the mid-single digits [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the context of a volatile bond market and a passive widening of credit spreads, investors should prioritize high - coupon assets for certain returns and prepare in advance for the spread compression market driven by the seasonal inflow of wealth management funds in July [1][5]. - The current core contradiction in the credit bond market is the co - existence of weakening allocation demand and a passive widening of spreads in a volatile environment. Investors should seize pricing deviation opportunities under the protection of coupon safety cushions [5]. - The volatile market pattern caused by the interplay of multiple factors will continue, providing tactical opportunities for layout during market adjustments [6]. - The coupon strategy is the optimal solution in a volatile market, and portfolios should be constructed in a stratified manner according to the characteristics of liabilities [7]. - Investors should "pre - position" for the seasonal spread compression market in July and seize structural opportunities in specific bond varieties [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Yield and Spread Overview 3.1.1 Yields and Changes of Each Tenor - Yields of various types of bonds at different tenors are presented, along with their weekly changes and historical percentiles. For example, the 0.5 - year Treasury yield is 1.41%, down 4.0bp from last week, with a historical percentile of 8.4% [14]. 3.1.2 Spreads and Changes of Each Tenor - Credit spreads of various types of bonds at different tenors are shown, including their weekly changes and historical percentiles. For instance, the 0.5 - year credit spread of public non - perpetual urban investment bonds is 25bp, up 2.1bp from last week, with a historical percentile of 12.7% [16]. 3.2 Yields and Spreads of Credit Bonds by Category (Hermite Algorithm) 3.2.1 Yields and Spreads of Urban Investment Bonds by Region - **Yields and Changes of Each Tenor**: Yields of public non - perpetual urban investment bonds in different provinces at key tenors, their weekly changes, and historical percentiles are provided. For example, the 0.5 - year yield of Anhui's public non - perpetual urban investment bonds is 1.77%, up 2.6bp from last week, with a historical percentile of 1.1% [19]. - **Spreads and Changes of Each Tenor**: Credit spreads of public non - perpetual urban investment bonds in different provinces at key tenors, their weekly changes, and historical percentiles are given. For example, the 0.5 - year credit spread of Anhui's public non - perpetual urban investment bonds is 30.41bp, up 4.6bp from last week, with a historical percentile of 7.2% [22]. - **Yields and Changes of Each Implied Rating**: Yields of public non - perpetual urban investment bonds in different provinces for each implied rating, their weekly changes, and historical percentiles are presented. For example, the AAA - rated yield of Anhui's public non - perpetual urban investment bonds is 1.80%, up 3.8bp from last week, with a historical percentile of 5.1% [26]. - **Spreads and Changes of Each Implied Rating**: Credit spreads of public non - perpetual urban investment bonds in different provinces for each implied rating, their weekly changes, and historical percentiles are shown. For example, the AAA - rated credit spread of Anhui's public non - perpetual urban investment bonds is 28.96bp, up 4.8bp from last week, with a historical percentile of 32.2% [31]. - **Yields and Changes of Each Administrative Level**: Yields of public non - perpetual urban investment bonds in different provinces at each administrative level, their weekly changes, and historical percentiles are provided. For example, the provincial - level yield of Anhui's public non - perpetual urban investment bonds is 1.80%, up 3.5bp from last week, with a historical percentile of 3.7% [35].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7]. Core Viewpoints - The photovoltaic industry is at the bottom of the cycle, and new technologies are seen as a crucial path for breaking through. The company's ABC products, launched in 2022, are expected to enter a harvest period by 2024, with significant performance improvements anticipated in 2025 [3][5]. - The company achieved a sales volume of 4.54GW in Q1 2025, reaching full production capacity, with both gross margin and operating cash flow turning positive [3][6]. Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Overview - The photovoltaic industry is currently facing overcapacity, with prices continuously declining, leading to significant pressure on profitability. The average component price has fallen below 0.7 yuan/W, resulting in many companies operating at a loss [5][16]. - The transformation in battery technology is a key path to overcoming the current cycle's challenges, with the BC battery technology emerging as a leading option due to its efficiency and aesthetic advantages [5][27]. Company Performance - The company has made significant advancements in its BC battery production, achieving a mass production efficiency of 24.6% and a maximum efficiency exceeding 25% for its "full-screen" components, which are set to be delivered starting March 2025 [6][73]. - The company has successfully reduced the manufacturing cost difference between BC and TOPCon technologies to within 0.05 yuan/W, with further cost reduction expected as production scales up [48]. Market Position and Strategy - The company has established a strong market presence, securing over 5GW in new sales orders in Q1 2025, which ensures robust future sales volume [6][72]. - The company is actively expanding its production capacity through joint ventures and partnerships, aiming to enhance its BC production ecosystem [6][51]. Financial Outlook - The company has successfully turned around its financial performance, with Q1 2025 showing positive gross margins and operating cash flow, alleviating previous financial pressures [6][32]. - The company’s debt levels are expected to decrease as operational performance improves, with a focus on maintaining a healthy balance sheet [6][32].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [8] Core Insights - The machine vision industry is characterized by long growth periods and high ceilings, with the global market size reaching 92.5 billion yuan in 2023, and the Chinese market becoming a major driver of growth [2][21] - The company is expanding from industrial vision to consumer-level vision and has made acquisitions to enter the linear motor and motion component markets, aiming to provide comprehensive system solutions [2][6] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 171 million, 240 million, and 333 million yuan from 2025 to 2027, corresponding to PE ratios of 63, 45, and 32 times [8] Summary by Sections Industry Growth and Trends - The machine vision market in China is projected to grow from 181 billion yuan in 2024 to 208 billion yuan in 2025, with a CAGR of 17.84% from 2020 to 2024, significantly outpacing global growth [2][21] - In 2023, the application distribution of machine vision functions in China was 31.4% for positioning, 29.7% for recognition, 25.6% for detection, and 13.3% for measurement [20][21] Technological Advancements - AI is breaking the limitations of traditional algorithms in machine vision, enhancing efficiency and reducing costs through advancements like the SAM model, which allows for high-quality segmentation with minimal data [5][38] - The company is leveraging its extensive industrial data and AI experience to develop lightweight, high-precision models that can operate efficiently on low-power devices [36][51] Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company has established a strong position in the domestic 3D vision market, with plans to expand its product line to include consumer-level robotics and 3D vision applications [6][7] - The company’s core technologies in 3D vision and AI algorithms position it as a key supplier in the global intelligent detection solutions market [7][8] Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from the ongoing automation trends in industries such as consumer electronics and automotive, driven by the need for cost reduction and efficiency improvements [56][57] - The integration of AI technologies into machine vision systems is anticipated to create more intelligent and user-friendly solutions, expanding the range of applications [56][58]