Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Multi-Cycle Timing Model Based on Bond YTM - **Model Construction Idea**: The model uses kernel regression algorithms to capture the trend patterns of interest rates, depicting the support and resistance lines of interest rate data. It provides multi-cycle composite timing views based on the shape breakthrough situations of interest rate trends in different investment cycles[10][18]. - **Model Construction Process**: - **Data Source**: 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year government bond YTM data. - **Signal Calculation**: - Long cycle: monthly frequency - Medium cycle: bi-weekly frequency - Short cycle: weekly frequency - **Signal Interpretation**: - 5-year bond YTM: Long cycle no signal, medium cycle downward breakthrough, short cycle no signal. Final signal: neutral oscillation[10][12]. - 10-year bond YTM: Long cycle downward breakthrough, medium cycle downward breakthrough, short cycle downward breakthrough. Final signal: bullish[13][15]. - 30-year bond YTM: Long cycle no signal, medium cycle downward breakthrough, short cycle downward breakthrough. Final signal: bullish[16][17]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively captures the trend patterns of interest rates and provides clear timing signals based on multi-cycle analysis. Model Backtesting Results 1. Multi-Cycle Timing Model Based on 5-Year Bond YTM - **Annualized Return**: 2.15% since the end of 2024[4][22]. - **Maximum Drawdown**: 0.73%[4]. - **Return-Drawdown Ratio**: 3.64[4]. - **Excess Return**: 0.8% relative to the performance benchmark[4]. - **Probability of Positive Annual Absolute Return**: Close to 100% since 2008[4]. 2. Multi-Cycle Timing Model Based on 10-Year Bond YTM - **Annualized Return**: 2.47% since the end of 2024[4][25]. - **Maximum Drawdown**: 0.98%[4]. - **Return-Drawdown Ratio**: 4.28[4]. - **Excess Return**: 1.32% relative to the performance benchmark[4]. - **Probability of Positive Annual Absolute Return**: Close to 100% since 2008[4]. 3. Multi-Cycle Timing Model Based on 30-Year Bond YTM - **Annualized Return**: 3.07% since the end of 2024[4][30]. - **Maximum Drawdown**: 1.72%[4]. - **Return-Drawdown Ratio**: 3.35[4]. - **Excess Return**: 2.78% relative to the performance benchmark[4]. - **Probability of Positive Annual Absolute Return**: Close to 100% since 2008[4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in the humanoid robotics sector [5]. Core Insights - The humanoid robotics sector has shown a slight adjustment, with the index underperforming the broader market. The humanoid robotics index fell by 1.54% during the week, while the CSI 300 index decreased by 0.28% [10][12]. - Key developments include Tesla's release of its annual humanoid robot report, showcasing significant technological advancements in its Optimus robot, and the launch of the U.S. national AI "Genesis Project," which aims to accelerate scientific discovery through AI [16][18]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring supply chain orders related to the T-chain and emphasizes the need to focus on suppliers with strong certainty [16]. Industry Overview - The humanoid robotics sector is characterized by a total of 474 listed companies with a total market capitalization of approximately 4,799.3 billion [5]. - The sector's performance over the past month shows a 1.0% increase over one month, a 27.1% increase over six months, and a 37.5% increase over twelve months [7]. - The report identifies several key companies and their respective sectors, including Tier 1 suppliers like Changying Precision, Sanhua Intelligent Control, and Top Group, as well as other relevant companies in the robotics supply chain [4][9]. Recent Developments - Tesla's Optimus robot has made significant progress in its capabilities, including basic movements and complex interactions, with plans for mass production starting in late 2026 [16][17]. - The U.S. "Genesis Project" involves major tech companies like OpenAI and Google, aiming to create a national AI-driven research platform [18]. - Domestic developments include partnerships between companies like Unibot and Texas Instruments, as well as the deployment of humanoid robots in various production lines [20][21][22]. Market Performance - The liquidity in the humanoid robotics sector has been declining, with core stocks accounting for 5.10% of total A-share trading volume, indicating a decrease in market activity [12]. - The report lists the top-performing stocks in the humanoid robotics sector, with notable gains from companies like Zhongyou Technology and Junsheng Electronics, while others like Zhongjian Technology and Zhejiang Haideman faced significant declines [14][15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Li Ning [4] Core Views - Since Q4 2025, the company has accelerated its layout in new products and channels, with positive market feedback on new running shoes featuring the latest super-bounce capsule technology [1][8] - The company has opened its first outdoor specialty store and a flagship store in Beijing, indicating a strategic expansion into new market segments [3] - With channel inventory returning to a healthy level, the company is expected to see a turnaround in operations in 2026, supported by aggressive marketing and major events [1][10] Inventory and Product Structure - As of Q3 2025, the channel inventory has decreased to a controllable level of 4-5 months, with 82% of inventory being new products under 6 months [2] - The product structure is healthy, with 77% of the company's inventory also consisting of new products under 6 months [2] Store Expansion - The total number of Li Ning stores reached 6,132 by the end of Q3 2025, with a net increase of 33 stores from the previous quarter [3] - The company has also increased its focus on outdoor and premium product lines, with new store openings catering to diverse consumer needs [3] Financial Performance and Projections - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 27,696 million yuan, with a growth rate of 6%, while 2025 revenue is expected to remain flat at 28,744 million yuan [9][24] - Net profit for 2025 is estimated at 2,395 million yuan, reflecting a decline of 21% year-on-year, but is expected to recover in subsequent years [9][24] - The report anticipates a gradual recovery in revenue growth starting in 2026, driven by new product launches and enhanced marketing efforts [10] Shareholder Activity - The controlling shareholder has been actively increasing their stake in the company, which is seen as a positive signal for corporate governance and long-term investment value [10][11]

Domestic Economic Insights - November economic data shows supply exceeding demand, with external demand outpacing internal demand, indicating a shift towards new growth drivers[5] - The growth rate of retail sales in November hit a new low for the year at 1.3%, reflecting a need for time to repair household balance sheets[18] - The focus of the "14th Five-Year Plan" is likely to be on optimizing income distribution and expanding domestic demand, with significant reforms expected in secondary distribution during the plan period[15] International Economic Developments - The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.75% on December 19, with a potential terminal rate forecasted between 1.0% and 1.25%[16] - Former President Trump signed a $901 billion defense authorization bill, which includes measures to lower commodity prices and reform housing[16] Asset Market Trends - The USD/JPY exchange rate remains in the 155-160 range, with negative impacts from yen carry trades on overseas markets still ongoing[17] - December is approaching a potential window for risk capital allocation, with a focus on domestic equities for a spring rally in 2026, particularly in technology and financial sectors[17] Monetary Policy and Liquidity - The People's Bank of China conducted a net withdrawal of 2110 billion yuan through open market operations, with a total of 4575 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos maturing next week[22] - The average weekly rate for DR001 decreased by 1.530 basis points to 1.2728%, indicating a loosening of liquidity conditions[23] Market Performance Overview - A-share indices showed mixed results, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.34% while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.84%[38] - The U.S. stock market also displayed mixed performance, with the Dow Jones reaching a historical high while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices experienced declines[12]

证券研究报告 | 行业定期报告 2025 年 12 月 21 日 11 月推盘未售去化周期较 10 月上升 ——样本城市周度高频数据全追踪 周期/房地产 一、核心要点 图 1：样本城市新房及二手房网签面积同比（截至 12 月 18 日） 挂牌价调涨占比：2025 年 11 月，12 个样本城市挂牌价调涨房源占比从 10 月 的 5.5%下降 0.1 PCT 至 5.4%，同比降幅较 10 月收窄 7.0 PCT 至-48.6%。 周观点：（一）2025 年中央经济工作会议对房地产市场的定调从过去的"更大 力度推动房地产市场止跌回稳"变为"着力稳定房地产市场"。"高质量推进 城市更新"、"深化住房公积金制度改革"、"有序推动'好房子'建设"等 表述值得关注，后续或可关注专项债和专项借款等金融工具进一步支持城市更 新，以及住房公积金贷款利率进一步调降、额度进一步提高和住房公积金用途 拓宽等可能性。行业基本面下政策的边际变化可能以及针对未来的压力测试或 依然是资本市场关注的要点。（二）判断净租金回报率与按揭利率之差收窄是 推动新房及二手房的合计总需求筑底的关键观察点；重视在供应缩量预期、供 给品质优化以及购房者画像 ...

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Short-term Timing Strategy - **Model Construction Idea**: The model aims to provide short-term market timing signals by analyzing macroeconomic fundamentals, valuation metrics, sentiment indicators, and liquidity conditions. It integrates these factors into a comprehensive signal for market timing decisions [16][17] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. **Macroeconomic Fundamentals**: - Manufacturing PMI: A value above 50 indicates expansion, while below 50 indicates contraction. The latest PMI is 49.20, giving a cautious signal [16][19] - Credit Impulse: The current long-term loan pulse growth rate is at the 54.24% percentile over the past 5 years, providing a neutral signal [16][19] - M1 Growth Rate: The filtered M1 growth rate is at the 86.44% percentile, indicating strong growth and a positive signal [16][19] 2. **Valuation Metrics**: - PE Median: The current PE median is at the 93.55% percentile over the past 5 years, signaling caution [16][19] - PB Median: The current PB median is at the 90.57% percentile, also signaling caution [16][19] 3. **Sentiment Indicators**: - Beta Dispersion: At the 44.07% percentile, providing a neutral signal [17][19] - Volume Sentiment Score: At the 24.15% percentile, indicating weak sentiment and a cautious signal [17][19] - Volatility: At the 32.01% percentile, providing a neutral signal [17][19] 4. **Liquidity Conditions**: - Money Market Rate: At the 30.51% percentile, indicating relatively loose liquidity and a positive signal [17][19] - Exchange Rate Expectation: At the 30.51% percentile, indicating a strong RMB and a positive signal [17][19] - Average 5-day Financing Inflows: At the 51.70% percentile, providing a neutral signal [17][19] - **Model Evaluation**: The model demonstrates strong performance with significant annualized returns and reduced drawdowns compared to the benchmark [18][21] 2. Model Name: Growth-Value Style Rotation Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model identifies rotation opportunities between growth and value styles based on macroeconomic cycles, valuation spreads, and sentiment differences [27][28] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. **Macroeconomic Fundamentals**: - Profit Cycle Slope: A steep slope benefits growth styles [27][29] - Interest Rate Cycle: High levels favor value styles [27][29] - Credit Cycle: Strengthening credit cycles benefit growth styles [27][29] 2. **Valuation Metrics**: - PE Spread: The 5-year percentile of the growth-value PE spread is 30.29%, favoring growth styles [27][29] - PB Spread: The 5-year percentile of the growth-value PB spread is 47.25%, also favoring growth styles [27][29] 3. **Sentiment Indicators**: - Turnover Spread: At the 40.86% percentile, indicating a neutral signal [28][29] - Volatility Spread: At the 65.89% percentile, indicating a neutral signal [28][29] - **Model Evaluation**: The model has delivered consistent annualized returns and outperformed the benchmark in most years, though it underperformed slightly in 2025 [28][30] 3. Model Name: Small-Cap vs. Large-Cap Rotation Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model evaluates the relative performance of small-cap and large-cap stocks using 11 effective rotation indicators, including liquidity, sentiment, and valuation metrics [31][33] - **Model Construction Process**: - Key Indicators: - **Liquidity Metrics**: R007 and financing balance changes, both favoring large-cap stocks [31][33] - **Sentiment Metrics**: Theme trading sentiment and beta dispersion, both favoring large-cap stocks [31][33] - **Valuation Metrics**: PB dispersion and MACD signals, favoring large-cap stocks [31][33] - Comprehensive Signal: The model aggregates these indicators into a composite signal, which currently suggests a 100% allocation to large-cap stocks [31][33] - **Model Evaluation**: The model has consistently generated positive annualized excess returns since 2014, with strong performance in 2025 [32][33] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Short-term Timing Strategy - **Annualized Return**: 16.37% (Benchmark: 4.76%) [18][21] - **Annualized Volatility**: 14.79% (Benchmark: 11.59%) [18][21] - **Maximum Drawdown**: 14.07% (Benchmark: 31.41%) [18][21] - **Sharpe Ratio**: 0.9641 (Benchmark: 0.2865) [18][21] - **2025 Performance**: Strategy Return: 23.60%, Benchmark Return: 13.41%, Excess Return: 10.19% [18][21] 2. Growth-Value Style Rotation Model - **Annualized Return**: 12.71% (Benchmark: 7.96%) [28][30] - **Annualized Volatility**: 20.79% (Benchmark: 20.64%) [28][30] - **Maximum Drawdown**: 43.07% (Benchmark: 44.13%) [28][30] - **Sharpe Ratio**: 0.5842 (Benchmark: 0.3782) [28][30] - **2025 Performance**: Strategy Return: 25.36%, Benchmark Return: 26.19%, Excess Return: -0.84% [28][30] 3. Small-Cap vs. Large-Cap Rotation Model - **Annualized Return**: 33.64% (Benchmark: 22.11%) [32][33] - **Annualized Excess Return**: 11.53% [32][33] - **Maximum Drawdown**: 40.70% [32][33] - **2025 Performance**: Strategy Return: 33.64%, Benchmark Return: 22.11%, Excess Return: 11.53% [32][33]

Group 1: Geopolitical Developments - Progress in US-Ukraine talks may lead to a security assurance agreement, with Ukraine potentially promising not to join NATO in exchange for a collective defense framework similar to Article 5 of the NATO treaty[2] - Trump's administration has ordered a complete blockade on sanctioned oil tankers entering or leaving Venezuela, causing fluctuations in international oil prices, with Brent crude oil rising by 3% on December 17 and decreasing by 1.8% over the week[12] - The US Congress has passed the 2026 National Defense Authorization Act, increasing military spending to a record $901 billion, which is $8 billion more than the Trump administration's request[16] Group 2: Future Focus Areas - Continued attention on US-China trade relations, particularly regarding tariffs and strategic industries, including semiconductors and critical minerals[22] - Ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, with a focus on the potential for renewed conflict in Gaza and the status of Iran nuclear negotiations[18] - The US government's strategy aims to strengthen control over the Western Hemisphere, with a focus on countering leftist governments in Latin America and securing energy resources[14]

汽车行业周报 首批 L3 车型获得准入许可，高阶智驾迎密集催化 中游制造/汽车 12 月 14 日至 12 月 20 日，汽车行业整体上涨 0.1%。本周，工业和信息化部正 式公布我国首批 L3 级有条件自动驾驶车型准入许可，两款分别适配城市拥堵、 高速路段的车型将在北京、重庆指定区域开展上路试点，标志着我国 L3 级自动 驾驶从测试阶段迈入商业化应用的关键一步。另外，小鹏获 L3 级自动驾驶道路 测试牌照；比亚迪展开 L3 量产内测，已完成 15 万公里道路验证；广州基本实 现自动驾驶全域开放；深圳启动 L3 自动驾驶内测。 ❑ 市场板块行情回顾 本周 CS 汽车+0.1%。本周（12 月 14 日至 12 月 20 日，下同）上证 A 指周 度持平，深证 A 指涨跌幅为-0.3%，创业板涨跌幅为-2.3%。本周各行业板块 多数下跌，涨幅较大的行业板块为 CS 商贸零售（+6.6%）、CS 消费者服务 （+4.4%）和 CS 非银行金融（+3.0%），下跌的行业板块为 CS 电新（-3.1%）、 CS 电子（-3.0%）和 CS 机械（-1.7%）。 汽车产业链各板块行情：本周，汽车行业二级板块多数上涨，其 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's fundamentals and expected performance relative to the benchmark index [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights the significant advancements in the Doubao model family, particularly the release of Doubao Model 1.8 and Seedance 1.5 pro, which have achieved top-tier capabilities in multimodal understanding and generation [8][11]. - The Doubao model's daily token usage has surpassed 50 trillion, ranking first in China and third globally, with over 100 enterprises utilizing the platform [11][12]. - The introduction of the "AI Savings Plan" aims to optimize model usage costs for enterprises, offering discounts of up to 47% based on usage volume [8][18]. - Zhihui Technology has successfully passed the Hong Kong Stock Exchange listing hearing, marking a significant milestone as the first company in Hong Kong focused on AGI foundational models [18]. - Zhihui's revenue is projected to grow from 57 million yuan in 2022 to 312 million yuan in 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of over 130%, despite increasing losses due to R&D investments [23][28]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report emphasizes the rapid iteration of AI large models and the intensifying competition for super OS entry points, urging continued attention to AI applications [8][28]. Company Performance - Zhihui's MaaS platform offers a comprehensive range of models, including language, multimodal, agent, and code models, with a focus on adaptability and extensive application scenarios [20][22]. - The company's revenue structure shows a strong growth trajectory, with significant R&D expenditures impacting net profits [23][27]. Market Performance - The computer sector experienced a slight decline of 0.68% in the third week of December 2025, with notable stock performances from companies like Xinghuan Technology and Wanjitech [29][30].

证券研究报告 | 策略定期报告 2025 年 12 月 21 日 ——A 股投资策略周报（1221） 《中央经济工作会议与美联储货 币政策变化对 A 股的影响 —— A 股投资策略周报（1214）》 《近期政策端变化如何影响 A 股 市场？——A 股投资策略周报 （1207）》 《A 股调整的原因和恢复上涨的 信 号 — — A 股投资策略周报 （1123）》 《近期国内外流动性变化及其对 市场的影响？——A 股投资策略 周报（1116）》 多项信号显示，一轮经典的"跨年—春季"行情正在酝酿，并已徐徐拉开帷幕。一 方面，2026 年开年后各项工作有望提前发力，尤其是中央预算内投资有望加快落地； 另一方面，当前已有重要机构投资者持续增持 A500 ETF 等宽基品种，为市场带来 稳定增量资金。风格方面，行情主线很可能聚焦以沪深 300、上证 50 为代表的蓝 筹指数；行业层面，应重点关注顺周期相关品种。 风险提示：经济数据不及预期，政策理解不全面，海外政策超预期收紧 定期报告 A 股跨年行情加春季躁动或将拉开帷幕 相关报告 《近期的商品涨价行情对 A 股市 场有何影响？——A 股投资策略 周报（1108）》 《 ...