证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 08 月 25 日 中国黄金国际（02099.HK） | 总股本（百万股） | 396 | | --- | --- | | 香港股（百万股） | 396 | | 总市值（十亿港元） | 33.6 | | 香港股市值（十亿港元） | 33.6 | | 每股净资产（港元） | 4.9 | | ROE（TTM） | 3.2 | | 资产负债率 | 36.3% | | 主要股东 | 中国黄金集团香港有限公司 | | 主要股东持股比例 | 40.0058% | 股价表现 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 22 84 106 相对表现 21 76 62 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 -50 0 50 100 150 Aug/24 Dec/24 Apr/25 Jul/25 (%) 中国黄金国际 恒生指数 半年度业绩超预期，期待甲玛矿未来产能提升 周期/金属及材料 公司 2025H1 实现营业收入 41.5 亿元，同比+179.6%，实现归母净利润 14.3 亿元，同比+735%。2025Q2 实现营业收入 22.0 亿元，同比/环比分别 +108.6%/+12.5%，实现归母净 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [2][6]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 13.876 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 204.4% [6]. - Adjusted net profit reached 4.710 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 362.8%, and an adjusted net profit margin of 33.94%, up by 11.6 percentage points [6]. - The company’s IP matrix continues to grow, with significant contributions from top IPs and a rapid increase in new IP cultivation [6]. Financial Performance - Revenue breakdown shows that the top IPs generated significant income, with "The monsters" contributing 4.81 billion yuan, "Molly" 1.36 billion yuan, and "Skullpanda" 1.22 billion yuan, among others [6]. - The plush category saw a staggering growth of 1276.2% to 6.139 billion yuan, becoming the highest revenue-generating category [6]. - The company’s gross margin improved to 70.3%, a year-on-year increase of 6.3 percentage points, driven by better cost control and a higher proportion of overseas high-margin business [6]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company forecasts total revenue of 30.05 billion yuan for 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 130% [7]. - Adjusted net profit is projected to reach 10.368 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth of 205% [7]. - The adjusted PE ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 37.4x, 27.3x, and 22.4x respectively [7]. Market Expansion - The company reported a revenue of 8.28 billion yuan from the China region, a year-on-year increase of 135.2%, with significant growth in offline channels [6]. - Overseas revenue reached 5.59 billion yuan, marking a remarkable growth of 439.6%, with the Americas showing a particularly high growth rate of 1142.3% [6]. - The company plans to expand its overseas store count to 200 by the end of the year, with a focus on emerging markets such as the Middle East and South Asia [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong buy rating for the company, with a target valuation not specified [3][7]. Core Views - The company's revenue and net profit for H1 2025 showed a year-on-year increase of 9% and a decrease of 17%, respectively, due to pressure from old customer orders and capacity mismatch [1][7]. - The company is expected to experience a decline in net profit for 2025, followed by growth in 2026 and 2027, with projected net profits of 3.51 billion, 4.18 billion, and 4.95 billion yuan, respectively [1][7]. - The company is expanding its production capacity in Southeast Asia, with new factories in Vietnam and Indonesia expected to come online in the second half of the year [6][7]. Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company's revenue reached 12.66 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.4%, while net profit was 1.67 billion yuan, a decrease of 11.1% [1][7]. - The gross profit margin decreased by 6.38 percentage points to 21.85% in H1 2025, with a net profit margin of 13.2% [6][7]. - The company’s cash flow from operating activities was 1.564 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.18% year-on-year [6][7]. Business Segmentation - Revenue from the sports shoe segment increased by 10.8% to 11.34 billion yuan, while outdoor footwear revenue decreased by 57.3% to 261 million yuan [1][2]. - Revenue from North America decreased by 0.4% to 9.89 billion yuan, while European revenue increased by 88.94% to 2.397 billion yuan [2][6]. Capacity and Efficiency - The company's capacity utilization rate was 95.78% in H1 2025, with domestic utilization at 98.7% [6][7]. - New factories in Vietnam and Indonesia are expected to enhance production efficiency, although current efficiency is lower than that of older factories [6][7]. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 26.49 billion, 30.02 billion, and 33.96 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with growth rates of 10%, 13%, and 13% [7]. - The current market capitalization corresponds to a PE ratio of 18x for 2025 and 15x for 2026 [1][7].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report focuses on the primary and secondary market conditions of local government bonds in the week of August 25, 2025, including issuance volume, net financing, maturity structure, issuance spreads, capital investment, and trading volume and turnover rate [1][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Primary Market Issuance Situation - **Net Financing**: This week, local government bonds issued a total of 369.2 billion yuan, with an increase in issuance volume and net financing. The net financing was 208.8 billion yuan, including 9.5 billion yuan in new general bonds, 239.3 billion yuan in new special bonds, 46.9 billion yuan in refinancing general bonds, and 73.5 billion yuan in refinancing special bonds [1]. - **Issuance Maturity**: The issuance proportion of 30 - year local government bonds was the highest at 29%, and the proportion of 10 - year and above issuances was 84%, the same as last week. The 30 - year issuance proportion increased by about 18 percentage points, while the 10 - year decreased by about 39 percentage points [1]. - **Local Government Bonds Related to Debt Resolution**: This week, 24.5 billion yuan of special refinancing bonds were issued. In 2025, 33 regions have disclosed plans to issue a total of 1,936.7 billion yuan in special bonds to replace hidden debts, with Jiangsu, Sichuan, Shandong, and Guizhou having 251.1 billion yuan, 114.8 billion yuan, 111.3 billion yuan, and 109.2 billion yuan respectively [2]. - **Issuance Spread**: The weighted average issuance spread of local government bonds this week was 23.3bp, widening compared to last week. The 15 - year weighted average issuance spread was the highest at 33.0bp. The spreads of 3 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year bonds narrowed, while others widened. Shandong, Hebei, Hunan, and Jilin had higher spreads over 27bp, while Zhejiang had a relatively low spread [2]. - **Fund Raising Allocation**: As of the end of this week, the main allocation of new special bond funds in 2025 was to cold - chain logistics, municipal and industrial park infrastructure (25%), social undertakings (18%), affordable housing projects (18%), transportation infrastructure (15%), and land reserves (11%). The proportion of land reserve allocation increased by 10.3% compared to 2024, while cold - chain logistics, municipal and industrial park infrastructure decreased by 11.6% [2]. - **Issuance Plan**: As of the end of this week, 35 regions have disclosed their local government bond issuance plans for the third quarter of 2025, with a total expected issuance of 2.9 trillion yuan. The planned issuance in August is 1,006.9 billion yuan. Next week, the planned issuance is 351.6 billion yuan, with a repayment of 108.1 billion yuan and a net financing of 243.5 billion yuan, a 34.7 - billion - yuan increase from last week [3]. 2. Secondary Market Situation - **Secondary Spread**: This week, the secondary spread of 15 - year local government bonds was relatively high, and the spreads of 15 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year bonds widened significantly. The 15 - year secondary spread was 21.7bp, and the 30 - year secondary spread's historical quantile in the past three years was 57%. Regionally, the secondary spreads of 10 - 15 - year bonds in various regions were relatively high, and those of 15 - 20 - year bonds in medium - level regions were also relatively high [6]. - **Trading Volume**: This week, the trading volume and turnover rate of local government bonds decreased compared to last week. The trading volume was 337.5 billion yuan, and the turnover rate was 0.64%. Hebei, Guangdong, and Hunan had relatively high turnover rates, all above 1.4% [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [4]. Core Insights - The company has shown continuous strong performance, with significant growth in both domestic and international business segments. In the first half of 2025, it achieved revenue of 387 million yuan and a net profit of 84 million yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 29.38% and 47.81% respectively [1]. - The domestic business is performing robustly, with a revenue increase of 36.7% in the first half of 2025, while international revenue also grew by 22.9% [8]. - The company is benefiting from the increasing emphasis on early-stage research and development in the biopharmaceutical sector, leading to a sustained upward trend in revenue and profit margins over the past three quarters [8]. - The company has successfully developed nearly 60 high-quality GMP-grade products, with significant sales growth in core recombinant protein varieties and other clinical products [8]. - The report projects a positive outlook for the company's net profit, estimating 182 million yuan, 237 million yuan, and 299 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 53, 41, and 33 [8]. Financial Data and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve total revenue of 839 million yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 30% [3]. - The projected net profit for 2025 is 182 million yuan, reflecting a 47% increase compared to the previous year [3]. - The current stock price is 57.83 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 9.7 billion yuan [4]. - The company has a low debt-to-asset ratio of 9.3%, indicating strong financial stability [4]. Performance Metrics - The company has shown a significant increase in quarterly revenue, with Q2 2025 revenue reaching 201 million yuan, a 30.95% increase year-on-year [1]. - The gross profit margin remains stable at around 90.5%, indicating strong pricing power and cost management [10]. - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to improve from 5.8% in the trailing twelve months to 9.9% by 2027 [4][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong buy rating for the company [4][8] Core Views - The company experienced a revenue growth of 3% in H1 2025, but net profit declined by 11%. The running category showed good growth, and the management is committed to optimizing channel structure and investing in Olympic marketing resources. The management maintains a guidance for flat revenue and a high single-digit net profit margin for 2025 [1][8] - The projected net profit for 2025-2027 is estimated at 2.38 billion, 2.53 billion, and 2.72 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of -21%, 7%, and 7% respectively. The current stock price corresponds to a PE of 20 times for 2025 [1][8] Revenue Breakdown - E-commerce revenue grew by 7% to 4.3 billion yuan in H1 2025, accounting for 29% of total revenue. Offline direct sales revenue decreased by 3% to 3.4 billion yuan, representing 23% of total revenue, while franchise revenue increased by 4% to 6.9 billion yuan, making up 47% of total revenue [2] Store Performance - As of June 2025, the total number of stores was 7,534, a decrease of 143 stores year-on-year. The average store area for flagship stores was 242 square meters, with an average monthly sales of 300,000 yuan, slightly down from 310,000 yuan in H1 2024 [2] Inventory Management - The company's channel inventory increased by a low single-digit percentage year-on-year, maintaining a healthy inventory-to-sales ratio for four consecutive months. New products within six months accounted for 82% of the channel inventory [2] Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 14.817 billion yuan in H1 2025, a 3.3% year-on-year increase, while net profit decreased by 11% to 1.737 billion yuan. The board proposed an interim dividend of 0.3359 yuan per share, with a payout ratio of 50% [7][8] - The gross margin slightly declined by 0.4 percentage points to 50%, while the operating profit margin decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 16.5% [8] Profitability Forecast - The company is expected to maintain its focus on Olympic and technological advancements to enhance brand influence and diversify product offerings. Revenue and profit are under pressure due to weak consumer demand and intensified market competition. The projected revenue for 2025-2027 is 28.744 billion, 29.956 billion, and 31.112 billion yuan, with growth rates of 0%, 4%, and 4% respectively [8][9]

证券研究报告 | 行业点评报告 2025 年 08 月 25 日 分类评级规定修订，突出功能性和经营效率，支持中小机构差异发展 资本市场改革发展系列点评 总量研究/非银行金融 事件：2025 年 8 月 22 日，证监会发布实施《证券公司分类评价规定》（后称《新 规》），整体契合 2024 年版国九条扶优限劣、支持中小机构差异化发展特色化 经营的导向。 ❑ 时隔五年，对照防风险强监管促高质量发展要求，分类评价规定再迎修订。 2020 版《证券公司分类监管规定》突出合规审慎导向，以券商风险管理能力、 持续合规状况为基础，结合业务发展，对券商进行分类评价。区别于 2020 年 版，《新规》聚焦券商功能性发挥情况，引导行业机构聚焦高质量发展、经 营效率提升，支持中小机构差异化发展和特色化经营。 ❑ 《新规》修改内容主要包括： 《新规》突出促进证券公司功能发挥的导向、完善评价框架。《新规》将"引 导证券公司更好发挥功能作用，提升专业能力"作为立法目的写入第一条， 修改"实现持续规范发展"为"实现高质量发展"，调整现有评价框架为"风 险管理能力、持续合规状况、业务发展和功能发挥状况"，且明确功能发挥 情况包含服务实体经 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [2][3]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 7.88 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 10.5%, and an adjusted net profit of 410 million yuan, up 14.6% year-on-year, indicating robust revenue growth and profit exceeding expectations [2][6]. - The long-term profit growth potential is viewed positively due to the company's solid market competitiveness and ongoing expansion of its store network [2][6]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 13.601 billion yuan - 2024: 14.759 billion yuan (growth of 8.5%) - 2025E: 16.364 billion yuan (growth of 10.9%) - 2026E: 17.737 billion yuan (growth of 8.4%) - 2027E: 19.106 billion yuan (growth of 7.7%) [3][8]. - Adjusted net profit estimates are: - 2023: 481 million yuan - 2024: 624 million yuan (growth of 29.7%) - 2025E: 786 million yuan (growth of 25.9%) - 2026E: 899 million yuan (growth of 14.4%) - 2027E: 1.051 billion yuan (growth of 16.9%) [3][8]. - The company’s earnings per share (Non-GAAP) are projected to be: - 2023: 0.59 yuan - 2024: 0.76 yuan - 2025E: 0.96 yuan - 2026E: 1.10 yuan - 2027E: 1.28 yuan [3][9]. Market Position and Expansion - As of the first half of 2025, the company has expanded its store network to 7,205 locations, a net increase of 894 stores year-on-year, with a coverage rate of 70% in counties with over 20,000 passenger vehicles [6][8]. - The company has seen a 23.8% year-on-year increase in transaction users on its app, reaching 26.5 million, with an average monthly active user count of 13.5 million, up 17.5% year-on-year [6][8]. Valuation - The target valuation for the company is set at 26.3 HKD per share, with the current stock price at 20.74 HKD [3][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong buy rating for several key companies in the military industry, including AVIC Xi'an Aircraft Industry Group (中航西飞), AVIC Optoelectronics (中航光电), and Aerospace Rainbow (航天彩虹) [8]. Core Insights - The military industry index increased by 3.07% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.11 percentage points. Year-to-date, the military industry index has risen by 25.49%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 14.23 percentage points [1][13]. - The report highlights that the mid-year performance of certain sub-sectors, such as artillery and military electronics, has shown initial signs of recovery, with strong year-on-year growth in revenues for key companies [21][24]. - The report anticipates a significant acceleration in performance for the commercial aerospace sector in the second half of the year, driven by an increase in launch activities [24]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The military industry index rose by 3.07% this week, lagging behind the CSI 300 index. The aerospace equipment, military electronics, and aviation equipment sub-sectors outperformed the military industry index, with increases of 4.42%, 3.69%, and 3.64% respectively [1][15]. Key Events - The mid-year performance reports indicate a strong recovery in the artillery sector, with a 17.36% revenue growth for China North Arrow (中兵红箭) and a significant increase in specialized equipment manufacturing [24]. - In the military electronics sector, companies like Hongyuan Electronics (鸿远电子) and Torch Electronics (火炬电子) reported rapid revenue and profit recovery, with year-on-year increases of 22.3% and 24.2% respectively [24]. Forward-Looking Catalysts - The establishment of new policy financial tools is expected to support emerging industries, with an estimated investment of around 500 billion yuan, potentially benefiting sectors like commercial aerospace and deep-sea technology [26]. - The development of unmanned equipment is highlighted as a new force in maritime defense, with various unmanned systems being introduced, such as the HSU-001 unmanned submersible and the "Whale" unmanned vessel [26][27].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's fundamentals and expectations for the industry index to outperform the benchmark index [6]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the year-on-year decline in the area of second-hand housing contracts has narrowed, while the decline in new housing contracts has expanded. This reflects a mixed performance across different city tiers [4][8]. - The analysis suggests that the net rental yield and mortgage rate differential is a key observation point for total demand in both new and second-hand housing markets. It emphasizes the potential for earlier improvement in the new housing market compared to the second-hand market due to supply contraction and quality optimization [4]. - The report also notes that the current price-to-book (PB) ratio for the sector is approximately 1.0 times, which reflects concerns about the impact of current housing sales on business models. It suggests that the sector has entered an investment range, with leading companies showing an average PB of about 0.7 times [4]. Summary by Sections New Housing Contracts - The year-on-year decline in new housing contracts has expanded, with a notable decrease of 22% across sample cities, which is a worsening of 3 percentage points compared to July [3]. - The report indicates that the new housing contract area is at a low level compared to the same period over the past five years [8]. Second-hand Housing Contracts - The year-on-year decline in second-hand housing contracts has narrowed to 1%, showing an improvement of 6 percentage points compared to July [3]. - The report states that the average number of viewings for second-hand homes in 12 sample cities has decreased by 0.4 percentage points month-on-month, while the year-on-year increase has expanded by 3.0 percentage points [4][42]. Land Transactions - The cumulative area of land transactions from January to July 2025 has seen a year-on-year decline of 6%, with the average transaction price increasing by 32% [23]. - The report notes that the land transaction volume and average price trends indicate a tightening market, with a decrease in the proportion of properties with rising listing prices [4][48]. Inventory and Supply - The report highlights a decrease in the unsold inventory of new housing, indicating a potential improvement in the market dynamics [32]. - It also mentions that the unsold inventory cycle for new housing has decreased compared to June, suggesting a tightening supply situation [32].