Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the outdoor industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this sector [5]. Core Insights - The outdoor industry emphasizes the importance of deepening niche markets and enhancing product functionality to strengthen brand power. The Chinese market is experiencing a gradual segmentation of outdoor demand, making it crucial for brands to select quality niches, enhance product functionality, and expand categories [1][2]. Summary by Sections Functionality as Core Element - Outdoor apparel focuses on moisture-wicking, three-proofing (waterproof, windproof, and breathable), and thermal insulation. Footwear emphasizes waterproofing, slip resistance, and stability. The three-layer layering system is central to apparel: base layer (e.g., Coolmax, Powerdry), insulation layer (e.g., Polartec fleece, Primaloft), and protective layer (e.g., Gore-Tex Pro, eVent) [1][14][16]. Competitive Analysis of Amer Sports - Product-wise, continuous iteration of functional technology and precise coverage of niche scenarios are key. Amer Sports' Arc'teryx utilizes Gore-Tex technology and proprietary materials to create a professional barrier, while Salomon focuses on trail running shoes with innovative sole technology [2][48]. - Channel-wise, Amer Sports adopts differentiated strategies based on regional consumption habits, with a significant increase in direct-to-consumer (DTC) sales in Asia, rising from 22% to 44% from 2020 to 2024 [2][48]. - Marketing strategies involve deepening niche markets and community engagement through event sponsorships and social media activities, enhancing brand influence [2][3]. Development of Domestic Market by Kailas - Kailas focuses on product functionality through core technologies like Gore-Tex and self-developed FILTERTEC, continuously enhancing product performance. The company has diversified its channels with offline flagship stores and rapid online growth exceeding 50% [3][48]. Industry Performance Metrics - The outdoor industry comprises 296 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 1,837.6 billion. The industry has shown a 25.4% absolute performance over the past 12 months [5][7].

Market Outlook - The market is expected to show an upward breakthrough in July, with technology and non-bank sectors likely to outperform [2][3][21] - Fiscal indices and resilient consumption have led to a marginal improvement in total demand growth in Q2, creating a favorable environment for upcoming mid-year performance disclosures [3][21] - Despite high-frequency data indicating export pressures in the second half, total demand is expected to remain stable, reducing the likelihood of significant economic downturns [3][21] Industry Recommendations - Focus on sectors with expected mid-year performance improvements, particularly in technology, consumer goods, and midstream manufacturing [4][17] - Recommended sectors include electronics (semiconductors), machinery (automation equipment), pharmaceuticals (chemical drugs), defense and military, non-ferrous metals (industrial, precious, and minor metals), and computers [4][17] - Key investment tracks for July include solid-state batteries, domestic computing power, non-bank finance, defense and military, and innovative pharmaceuticals [18] Economic Indicators - Total demand growth rebounded to 5.7% in May, indicating stability, with industrial enterprise revenue growth at 3.2% [22][23] - Government financing has significantly contributed to social financing growth, supporting economic recovery and creating a favorable financial environment for the stock market [24][27] - Fiscal spending has accelerated, with a 26% year-on-year increase in broad fiscal spending in the first five months, playing a crucial role in improving economic data [30]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the automotive industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [5]. Core Insights - The automotive industry experienced an overall increase of 2.6% from June 22 to June 28, with significant developments in electric vehicles and autonomous driving technology [1][11]. - Xiaomi's YU7 model exceeded expectations with over 200,000 pre-orders within 3 minutes of launch, and 240,000 orders within 18 hours, highlighting strong consumer interest [23][24]. - Tesla achieved a milestone by delivering a Model Y autonomously for the first time, showcasing advancements in self-driving technology [29]. Market Performance Overview - The automotive sector's secondary segments saw comprehensive growth, with automotive parts and services rising by 4.6% and 4.3% respectively [11]. - Notable individual stock performances included Construction Industry (+35.9%), Haitai Technology (+35.7%), and Patel (+31.3%) [3][14]. Recent Industry Developments - The report highlights several key industry events, including the launch of the Wanjie M8 model, which achieved over 30,000 deliveries in 58 days, and the introduction of a strategic investment of 5 billion RMB in Seris Automotive [21][27]. - The establishment of new companies, such as Yipai Automotive by Dongfeng Motor, aims to enhance the company's capabilities in the electric and intelligent vehicle sectors [22]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong sales performance or potential blockbuster vehicles, including BYD, Seris, Great Wall Motors, and Jianghuai Automotive [5]. - For commercial vehicles, it recommends Yutong Bus, China National Heavy Duty Truck, and Weichai Power, while highlighting quality enterprises in parts manufacturing such as Fuyao Glass and Top Group [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong buy rating for the company, with a target valuation not specified [5]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve high-quality growth in FY25, with a projected revenue increase of 11.6% and a net profit increase of 14.3%, demonstrating strong operational resilience amid a warm winter [1][11]. - The company is focusing on the "fashion functional technology apparel" segment while optimizing its product categories and channel quality [11]. Revenue and Profitability - For FY25, the company's total revenue reached 25.9 billion RMB, with a significant increase in operating profit by 12.9% to 4.97 billion RMB and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.51 billion RMB, reflecting a 14.3% year-on-year growth [11][10]. - The gross margin for the brand's down jackets decreased by 2.3 percentage points to 57.3%, while the net profit margin increased by 0.4 percentage points to 13.6% due to expense optimization [4][11]. Brand Performance - The brand's down jacket revenue grew by 11.0% to 21.67 billion RMB, with the main brand contributing 85.3% of total down jacket revenue [10][2]. - Online and offline sales for the brand's down jackets were 7.48 billion RMB (+9.4%) and 14.19 billion RMB (+11.9%), respectively [2]. Channel and Retail Expansion - The company added 253 retail outlets, bringing the total to 3,470, with a significant presence in first and second-tier cities [2]. - The self-operated and wholesale channels generated revenues of 15.09 billion RMB (+5.2%) and 5.72 billion RMB (+24.3%), respectively [2]. Financial Health - The company maintains healthy cash flow and inventory turnover, with a cash flow net amount of 3.98 billion RMB, which is 1.13 times the net profit [11]. - The asset-liability ratio stands at 37.9%, indicating a solid financial position [5][14]. Future Projections - The company forecasts net profits of 3.91 billion RMB, 4.34 billion RMB, and 4.76 billion RMB for FY26, FY27, and FY28, respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 11% [11][10]. - Revenue projections for FY26, FY27, and FY28 are 28.5 billion RMB, 31.3 billion RMB, and 34.2 billion RMB, with growth rates of 10%, 10%, and 9% [11][10].

Group 1: Geopolitical Developments - Iran and Israel announced a ceasefire, with concerns about the potential for renewed military action if negotiations fail[5] - NATO summit agreed to increase defense spending to 5% of GDP by 2035, with 3.5% for core defense and 1.5% for broader measures[10] - Ongoing U.S. trade negotiations with multiple countries, including China, Japan, and South Korea, with a focus on tariffs and trade barriers[13] Group 2: Trade and Economic Policies - U.S. tariffs on various goods remain a critical issue, with a focus on semiconductor and pharmaceutical investigations initiated in April[16] - The U.S. is considering extending tariff suspension for countries participating in trade negotiations until July 9[16] - The potential for a shift in U.S. trade policy towards more strategic protectionism, particularly in key supply chains[16] Group 3: Risks and Future Outlook - Risks include unexpected changes in U.S. policy and international relations, particularly regarding Iran and trade negotiations[4] - The geopolitical landscape is shifting, with a focus on balancing relations between major powers, including the U.S., Russia, and China[19] - Long-term uncertainties may arise from internal U.S. political dynamics affecting foreign policy and trade strategies[20]

证券研究报告 | 行业定期报告 2025 年 06 月 29 日 基本面宏观面共振 铜向上突破 金属行业周报 周期/金属及材料 宏观和地缘局势缓和，市场风险偏好回升。下半年，我们预计金属市场步入全 球宽松和金属价格受益进入上行通道。当前风险因素依然较多。美国和中国之 外关税 90 天豁免临近结束，仍需关注。铜基本面很强，一方面消费韧性，另 外美国 232 带来的大量铜蜂拥至美国，导致非美地区供应吃紧。预计近期随着 LME 逼仓，国内库存重回下降，基本面走强，但是需要警惕 232 消息的扰动。 黄金价格近期调整，但是长期看涨逻辑未变，我们继续看多。此外，关注自主 可控相关以及时间友好的科技、机器人、可控核聚变等相关材料标的。 推荐（维持） 行业规模 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 235 | 4.6 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 4242.0 | 4.8 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 3944.2 | 4.9 | 行业指数 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 7.7 13.0 32.6 相对表现 5.5 14.5 19.1 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 - ...

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Recommended" based on the positive outlook for the digital asset sector and its expected growth due to regulatory advancements [2][32]. Core Insights - The digital asset market is poised for accelerated growth as regulatory frameworks are established, with Hong Kong aiming to become a global innovation hub for digital assets [5][16]. - The release of the "Hong Kong Digital Asset Development Policy Declaration 2.0" emphasizes the LEAP framework, which focuses on legal and regulatory optimization, expanding tokenized product categories, promoting application scenarios, and developing talent and partnerships [16][17]. - The approval of 41 institutions for license upgrades indicates a growing acceptance and integration of virtual asset services within traditional financial frameworks [10][13]. Summary by Sections 1. Hong Kong Digital Asset Regulatory Legislation - Guotai Junan International has become the first Hong Kong-based Chinese broker to offer comprehensive virtual asset trading services after upgrading its license [9]. - A total of 41 institutions have received license upgrades, including 38 brokers, 1 bank, and 1 internet company, indicating a significant shift towards virtual asset services [10][13]. 2. Artificial Intelligence Industry Chain Update - Multiple domestic companies are accelerating their deployment in the AI agent sector, transitioning from technical exploration to practical applications across various industries [20][24]. - Intel plans to outsource marketing positions to Accenture, aiming to enhance operational efficiency and digital capabilities through AI [20]. 3. Market Performance Review - The computer sector saw a 7.71% increase in the fourth week of June 2025, with notable performers including Tianli Technology and ST Guangdao [25].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes the primary and secondary market conditions of local government bonds in the week of June 29, 2025, and predicts the issuance plan for the third quarter of 2025. It shows that the issuance volume and net financing of local government bonds in the primary market have increased, the proportion of long - term issuance has risen, and the issuance spread has widened. In the secondary market, the secondary spreads of 3Y, 15Y, and 30Y local government bonds are advantageous, and the turnover rates of local government bonds in Fujian, Sichuan, and Shandong are relatively high. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Primary Market Issuance Situation - **Net Financing**: This week, local government bonds issued a total of 641.6 billion yuan, with a repayment of 81.3 billion yuan and a net financing of 560.4 billion yuan. The issuance volume and net financing increased [1]. - **Issuance Term**: The issuance proportion of 10Y local government bonds was the highest this week (27%), and the proportion of 10Y and above issuance was 73%, showing an increase compared with last week. The issuance proportion of 7Y local government bonds decreased significantly, with a month - on - month decrease of about 10 percentage points [1][12]. - **Debt - Resolution - Related Local Government Bonds**: This week, special refinancing bonds issued a total of 5.97 billion yuan. In 2025, 33 regions have disclosed plans to issue special bonds to replace hidden debts, with a total of 179.59 billion yuan. Among them, Jiangsu, Sichuan, Shandong, and Yunnan plan to issue 25.11 billion yuan, 11.48 billion yuan, 11.13 billion yuan, and 8.78 billion yuan respectively [15][16]. - **Issuance Spread**: The weighted average issuance spread of local government bonds this week was 11.9bp, which widened compared with last week. The weighted average issuance spread of 30Y local government bonds was the highest, reaching 18.8bp. Except for the 5Y, 10Y, and 20Y local government bonds, the weighted average issuance spreads of other terms narrowed [1][24]. - **Raised Funds Allocation**: As of the end of this week, the main allocation directions of newly - added special bond funds in 2025 were cold - chain logistics, municipal and industrial park infrastructure construction (30%), transportation infrastructure (20%), affordable housing projects (13%), and social undertakings (12%). The proportion of land reserve allocation increased by 10.9% compared with 2024, while the proportion of cold - chain logistics, municipal and industrial park infrastructure construction decreased by 6.9% [2][28]. - **Issuance Plan**: As of the end of this week, 30 regions have disclosed the local government bond issuance plan for the third quarter of 2025, with a total of 2.56 trillion yuan. Among them, the planned issuance in July is 128.1 billion yuan. In addition, the planned issuance of new bonds and refinancing bonds in the third quarter is 161.23 billion yuan and 94.7 billion yuan respectively. Next week, the planned issuance of local government bonds is 6.14 billion yuan, with a repayment of 5.05 billion yuan and a net financing of 1.09 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 54.94 billion yuan [3][30]. 3.2 Secondary Market Situation - **Secondary Spread**: This week, the secondary spreads of 3Y, 15Y, and 30Y local government bonds were advantageous, and the widening amplitudes of the secondary spreads of 3Y and 30Y local government bonds were relatively large. The secondary spreads of 3Y, 15Y, and 30Y local government bonds were relatively high, reaching 17.2bp, 18.5bp, and 18.3bp respectively. From the perspective of the historical quantile in the past three years, the historical quantile of the secondary spread of 30Y local government bonds was relatively high, reaching 77%. Regionally, the secondary spreads of local government bonds over 20Y in various types of regions were relatively high, and the secondary spreads of 10 - 20Y local government bonds in medium - level regions were also relatively high [5][35]. - **Trading Volume**: This week, the trading volume and turnover rate of local government bonds basically remained at the same level as last week. The turnover rates of local government bonds in Fujian, Sichuan, and Shandong were relatively high. The trading volume of local government bonds this week reached 520.6 billion yuan, with a turnover rate of 1.01%. Among them, the trading volumes of local government bonds in Shandong and Jiangsu were large, reaching 5.05 billion yuan and 4.86 billion yuan respectively; the turnover rates in Fujian, Sichuan, Shandong and other places were all higher than 1.6% [5][39].

证券研究报告 | 宏观点评报告 2025 年 06 月 29 日 "强美股+弱美元"提振非美风偏 ——宏观与大类资产周报 频率：每月 国内方面， 1）6 月最后一周生产端高频数据继续呈现淡季特征，预计 6 月生 产增速进一步回落。2）进入暑期后消费高频数据反弹成为结构性亮点，出行 流量也出现改善。3）地产偏弱态势仍然延续，30 城 6 月成交量与去年同期的 差距较 5 月扩大。4）资产价格方面，近期的"强美股+弱美元"格局有助于提 振非美权益风险偏好及流动性，预计 7 月国内权益风险偏好进一步改善，仍维 持哑铃型策略占优、科技与类债资产表现较强、H 股优于 A 股的判断。 海外方面，1）从贝森特和特朗普近期发言来看 7 月关税豁免期继续延长为大 概率，但有三点不确定性：未来几周美国或公布涵盖半导体、制药和关键矿物 等核心行业的 232 调查结果；欧盟、印度等经济体有望在 7 月 9 日前与美国达 成类似英美的框架性协议；关注美国是否利用关税向越南等国施压、进而影响 中国出口转口和企业出海。2）根据 CRFB 估计，6 月 28 日参议院最新版本的 OBBB 法案将使考虑利息后的总赤字增加 3.5-4.2 万亿 ...

证券研究报告 | 金融工程 2025 年 6 月 29 日 利率择时信号中性偏空 ——利率市场趋势定量跟踪 20250627 利率市场结构变化 - 10 年期国债到期收益率录得 1.65%，相对上周升高 0.66BP。当前 利率水平、期限和凸性结构读数分别为 1.51%、0.3%、0.02%，从 均值回归视角看，目前处于水平结构点位较低、期限结构点位偏 低、凸性结构点位偏低的状态。 梁雨辰 S1090523070008 liangyuchen2@cmschina.com.cn 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 利率价量周期择时信号：中性偏空 - 利率数据的多周期择时信号为：长周期向上突破、中周期无信号、 短周期向下突破。综合来看，当前合计下行突破 1 票、上行突破 1 票，由于 3 种周期下的同向突破总得票数未达 2/3，最终信号的综 合评分结果为中性震荡。同时，由于价量择时的最新趋势在 6 月 25 日转为看空，随后又转为中性震荡，但当前上行突破信号票数 仍大于等于下行突破信号票数，因此整体而言价量信号呈中性偏空 观点。 公募债基行为跟踪：久期提升、分歧微降 利率价量多周期择时策略表现 - 自 2023 年底以来，策 ...