证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 08 月 26 日 冰轮环境（000811.SZ） 传统下游资本开支下降，业绩略承压，AI 液冷有亮点 中游制造/机械 营收利润双降，业绩表现略低于预期。尽管如此，公司上半年毛利率仍实现同 比的小幅提升，表明公司产品和订单的结构仍显优质。公司上半年收入、利润 下降主要归因于传统下游的资本开支增速下滑，反映到行业螺杆压缩机销量数 据中亦有所体现。亮点在于烟台冰轮（香港）的收入小幅增长，而利润增幅更 大，表明 AIDC 方向的高价值量液冷机组显著贡献业绩。长期来看，传统业务 逐步企稳+AIDC 液冷机组持续贡献增量，公司业绩有望行稳致远。给予"强烈 推荐"评级。 强烈推荐（维持） 目标估值：NA 当前股价：14.23 元 基础数据 | 总股本（百万股） | 993 | | --- | --- | | 已上市流通股（百万股） | 970 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 14.1 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 13.8 | | 每股净资产（MRQ） | 5.9 | | ROE（TTM） | 9.6 | | 资产负债率 | 46.1% | | 烟台国丰投资控股集团有限 主要 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [3] Core Views - The company's revenue and net profit for H1 2025 were 1.19 billion yuan and 12.43 million yuan, respectively, showing a year-on-year increase of 10.4% in revenue but a significant decline of 82.1% in net profit [1][6] - In Q2 2025, the company experienced a quarter-on-quarter revenue growth rebound, with significant growth in coffee and plant-based products, although profit margins were pressured by rising raw material costs and increased marketing expenses [1][6] - The company is expected to continue expanding its consumer market efforts, particularly in coffee and plant-based products, which are anticipated to maintain rapid growth in H2 2025, despite ongoing profit pressures [1][6] Financial Data and Valuation - The projected total revenue for 2023 is 2.841 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 17%, but a decline of 19% is expected in 2024 [2][12] - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 0.11 yuan, 0.18 yuan, and 0.23 yuan, respectively [2][12] - The company’s total assets are projected to reach 3.639 billion yuan by 2025, with a total liability of 742 million yuan [11][12] Performance Analysis - In Q2 2025, the company reported revenues of 615 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 15.5%, while net profit decreased by 64.1% [6][12] - The gross margin for H1 2025 was 12.4%, down 5.5 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to rising raw material costs and changes in product structure [6][12] - The company’s major products, including powdered oils, coffee, and plant-based products, showed varied performance, with coffee and plant-based products experiencing significant growth of 72% and 65.4% year-on-year, respectively [6][12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [3]. Core Insights - The company has shown impressive growth in lithium battery and automotive sectors, with a significant recovery in gross margin [6]. - For the first half of 2025, the company reported revenue of 1.461 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.68%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 282 million yuan, up 26.49% year-on-year [1]. - The second quarter of 2025 saw revenue of 841 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.79% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 35.65% [1]. - The company is expected to maintain rapid growth, with projected revenues of 2.898 billion yuan in 2025, 3.502 billion yuan in 2026, and 3.853 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 16%, 21%, and 10% respectively [2][6]. Financial Performance - The company's gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 39.1%, an increase of 3.46 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 19.28%, up 1.19 percentage points year-on-year [6]. - The company has successfully optimized its product structure to enhance gross margins, particularly through the development of high-margin products [6]. - The overseas revenue for the first half of 2025 reached 5.182 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 126%, with the number of overseas customers growing by 71.74% [6]. Financial Data and Valuation - The company’s total market capitalization is 17.4 billion yuan, with a circulating market value of 12.7 billion yuan [3]. - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected to be 33.5 for 2025, decreasing to 23.7 by 2027 [2][13]. - The return on equity (ROE) is reported at 11.0% [3]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates continued demand from downstream lithium battery clients and growth in the automotive sector due to new model launches and technological advancements [6]. - The company is expected to benefit from increasing demand in the 3C sector, particularly from VR/AR devices and new Apple products [6].

证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 08 月 26 日 仙乐健康（300791.SZ） 营收环比改善，内生利润率提升 消费品/食品饮料 25Q2 公司收入/归母净利润分别同比+4.66%/+1.13%，整体收入端环比改善， BF 亏损扩大，但内生净利率受益于降本增效有所提升。公司锚定全球营养健康 食品行业 CDMO 龙头，积极探索完善产品矩阵寻求开发更多客户，洞察需求提 升成长能力。同时公司前瞻布局高潜赛道，聚焦孕婴童、女性、益生菌与现代 汉方等前沿领域打造全生命周期营养产品矩阵，前瞻布局宠物赛道，打造"人 类营养技术迁移+宠物风味场景适配"创新模式，有望支撑未来增长。我们认为 公司 H2 有望延续全年逐季改善的态势，同时建议关注 BF 个护业务剥离进展， 及其带动的盈利能力显著改善的弹性。考虑到 BF 个护业务对亏损扩大对全年 业绩的影响，我们对此前盈利预测有所调整，预计 25-26 年 EPS 分别为 1.17 元、1.35 元，维持"强烈推荐"投资评级。 强烈推荐（维持） 目标估值：NA 当前股价：25.2 元 基础数据 | 总股本（百万股） | 307 | | --- | --- | | 已 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [3]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 32.049 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 20.42%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.613 billion yuan, with a slight increase of 0.24% year-on-year [1]. - The company is focusing on expanding its capabilities in deep-sea wind power and enhancing its leadership position in marine energy interconnection. It is actively involved in new infrastructure projects under the national marine power strategy [7]. - The company is advancing its global operations strategy, with simultaneous developments in cross-ocean communication and energy interconnection. As of the report date, the company had 7.5 billion yuan in orders related to marine communication and approximately 20 billion yuan in energy interconnection projects [7]. Financial Data and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve total revenue of 66.808 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 11%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 3.330 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 20% [2][15]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 1.35 yuan in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 15.0 [2][15]. - The company’s total assets are estimated to be 63.152 billion yuan in 2025, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 46.4% [13][15]. Performance Metrics - The company achieved a gross margin of 13.1% and a net margin of 5.0% in 2025 [15]. - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 11.1% in 2025, indicating a strong profitability outlook [15]. - The company has a total market capitalization of approximately 49.9 billion yuan, with a circulating market value of 49.4 billion yuan [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [2][4]. Core Views - The company is a leading player in the domestic fiber optic communication and submarine cable sectors, with a strong position in sub-segments such as optical communication, renewable energy, and power systems. The transition from a "product supplier" to a "system integration service provider" in the energy sector positions the company as a global leader in energy network system solutions. The submarine cable business is expected to be a new growth driver in the coming years [2]. - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 3.43 billion yuan, 3.96 billion yuan, and 4.48 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, representing growth rates of 21%, 16%, and 13% respectively. The corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are expected to be 15.8X, 13.7X, and 12.1X [2]. Financial Data and Valuation - The company reported total revenue of 45.065 billion yuan in 2023, with a year-on-year growth of 12%. The projected revenues for 2024, 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 48.055 billion yuan, 55.515 billion yuan, 61.525 billion yuan, and 67.081 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 7%, 16%, 11%, and 9% [3][14]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 3.117 billion yuan in 2023, decreasing to 2.838 billion yuan in 2024, and then increasing to 3.426 billion yuan, 3.959 billion yuan, and 4.482 billion yuan in the following years, with corresponding growth rates of -3%, -9%, 21%, 16%, and 13% [3][14]. - The company’s current stock price is 15.85 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 54.1 billion yuan [4]. Business Growth Drivers - The renewable energy market is rapidly growing, contributing to steady performance improvements. In the second quarter of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 13.844 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.08%. The energy network sector is benefiting from national reforms in renewable energy pricing, leading to a surge in new installations [7]. - There is strong demand for submarine cables overseas, with the global market entering a new growth cycle. The company has secured significant projects and is expanding its global production capacity, including establishing a manufacturing base in Saudi Arabia [7]. - The company is enhancing its competitive edge in offshore engineering by developing advanced marine vessels and strengthening its capabilities across the entire industry chain, which includes construction, installation, and maintenance [7].

Policy Directions - The two main policy directions for the second half of the year are anti-involution and expanding domestic demand, aimed at stabilizing price levels[1] - Anti-involution policies are expected to further expand in industries like steel, cement, and photovoltaics, with potential governance in other sectors such as lithium batteries[1] Economic Indicators - Recent high-frequency indicators show a weakening in both supply and demand, with production rates for asphalt, cement, and rebar declining[1] - The national average operating rate for asphalt companies was 30.7%, down 2.2 percentage points week-on-week, but up 15.8% year-on-year[9] - The average operating rate for electric furnaces was 62.82%, a decrease of 0.64 percentage points week-on-week, with a year-on-year increase of 24.1%[12] Production and Prices - The average daily crude steel production in early August was 2.074 million tons, an increase of 92,000 tons from late July, with a year-on-year growth of 3.5%[72] - Cement production last week was 13.337 million tons, down 2.979 million tons week-on-week, but up 1.1% year-on-year[92] - The average price of cement in East China was 433 RMB/ton, up 15 RMB/ton week-on-week, while in Southwest China, it was 460 RMB/ton, up 17 RMB/ton[100] Market Risks - Key risks include geopolitical tensions, domestic policy implementation falling short of expectations, global recession, and major economies' monetary policies exceeding expectations[2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 1.214 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 21.26%, with a net profit of 425 million yuan, up 24.11% year-on-year [1] - The company's core product, PFA, has gained rapid acceptance in major hospitals, with over 800 procedures completed [5] - The vascular intervention business continues to expand, with coronary business revenue reaching 654 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.02% [5] - International business revenue grew by 23.84% year-on-year, with a notable 34.56% increase in key overseas markets [5] - The overall gross margin improved to 73.51%, contributing to a net profit margin increase to 34.51% [5] Financial Performance - The company expects revenues of 2.691 billion yuan, 3.475 billion yuan, and 4.553 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with growth rates of 30%, 29%, and 31% [6] - The projected net profit for the same years is 900 million yuan, 1.172 billion yuan, and 1.535 billion yuan, with growth rates of 34%, 30%, and 31% [6] - The company's PE ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 44, 34, and 26 respectively [6] Key Financial Ratios - The company's gross margin is expected to improve gradually, reaching 73.3% by 2027 [9] - The net profit margin is projected to stabilize around 33.7% by 2027 [9] - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to increase to 31.6% by 2027 [9]

Core Insights - The report highlights the release of DeepSeek-V3.1, which features a hybrid reasoning architecture, improved thinking efficiency, and enhanced agent capabilities, marking a significant advancement in domestic AI models [2][5][15] - Tesla has partnered with ByteDance's Volcano Engine to integrate AI models into its smart cockpit, utilizing the Doubao model for voice commands and DeepSeek for AI chat services, indicating a shift towards local AI solutions [25][26] - NVIDIA is set to launch a "New Brain" for humanoid robots, showcasing its commitment to advancing robotics and AI applications [27][29] Industry Trends - The report emphasizes the importance of AI applications and hardware, non-bank financial services, defense and military industries, and innovative pharmaceuticals as key sectors to watch for marginal improvements in August [30][31] - The introduction of "quasi-fiscal" tools, amounting to 500 billion yuan, aims to support emerging industries and infrastructure, reflecting a proactive approach to economic stimulus [5] - The global stock market showed a positive trend, with consumer discretionary and daily consumption sectors performing well, while public utilities lagged [32][33] Company Developments - DeepSeek-V3.1 has undergone significant upgrades, including a new API that supports function calling and integration with the Anthropic API ecosystem, enhancing its usability for developers [16][18][21] - The performance metrics of DeepSeek-V3.1 have shown substantial improvements in code repair and search capabilities compared to previous models, indicating a leap in technological advancement [19][20] - Tesla's integration of local AI models is a strategic move to comply with new regulations and enhance user experience in its vehicles, positioning itself competitively against local rivals [25][26]

Market Outlook and Strategy - The improvement in liquidity narrative is expected to support a rebound in the Hong Kong stock market, narrowing the gap with the rapidly rising A-share market [1][3] - The current earnings forecast rate for Hong Kong stocks is at its highest since 2022, indicating a positive outlook for earnings improvement [1][6] - It is recommended to focus on sectors that differ from A-shares, with a suggested investment sequence of innovative drugs first, followed by the internet sector, and finally new consumption [1][7] Sector Recommendations - Recommended sectors include innovative drugs, internet, and non-bank financials, with specific indices provided for each [1][9] - The innovative drug sector is highlighted due to alleviated liquidity risks and high growth potential [9] - The internet sector is seen as having fully priced in earnings pressures, making it a potential area for growth in a loosening liquidity environment [9] - Non-bank financials are considered a good base choice in a bull market, with valuations significantly lower than A-shares, indicating potential for catch-up [9] Performance Review - The Hong Kong stock market saw a slight increase last week, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.27% and the Hang Seng Tech Index increasing by 1.89% [12][15] - The AH premium index expanded to 125.33, reflecting positive market sentiment [12] - The majority of sectors experienced gains, particularly non-essential consumption, information technology, and telecommunications, while materials, energy, and utilities lagged [15] Micro Liquidity Analysis - Average daily trading volume in the Hong Kong market reached 280.3 billion HKD, indicating a significant increase in trading activity [18] - There was a net inflow of 179 billion HKD from southbound funds, primarily directed towards financial, information technology, and healthcare sectors [29] - Local ETFs saw a net inflow of 5.5 billion HKD last week, contributing to a total net inflow of 45.1 billion HKD year-to-date [24][27] Earnings Disclosure - As of August 25, 2023, 699 Hong Kong-listed companies have issued earnings warnings, with 41% indicating positive earnings revisions, the highest rate in three years [6][8] - The technology, pharmaceutical, and new consumption sectors in Hong Kong have a higher representation compared to A-shares, suggesting potential for continued earnings improvement [6] Valuation Levels - The forward P/E ratio for the Hang Seng Index is currently at 11.6X, placing it in the 69.3 percentile since 2020, while the Hang Seng Tech Index stands at 19.3X, in the 24.6 percentile since its inception [33][35]