证券研究报告 | 策略专题报告 2025 年 12 月 21 日 中央经济工作会议后，中财办、各部委有哪些增量表态？ ——国内外产业政策周报（1221） 本周国内政策方面，第一，中央经济工作会议后，中财办、各部委均有增量表 态，根据我们的梳理，建议重点关注五方面增量信息。第二，《保险公司资产 负债管理办法（征求意见稿）》发布，重点关注两方面变化。第三，各地十五 五建议稿出台。海外政策方面，本周美国九家药企达成协议，日央行加息落地、 美股科技大幅反弹。 专题报告 相关报告 1、《今年以来服务消费政策部 署梳理，美政府结束停摆——国 内外产业政策周报（1116）》 2、《黄金税收政策调整，美国 与亚洲多国达成合作——国内 外产业政策周报（1103）》 3、《发布会召开介绍和解读四 中全会精神，有哪些增量信息？ — — 国 内 外 产 业 政 策 周 报 （1025）》 4、《整治内卷聚焦价格治理， 特朗普威胁对华大幅加征关税 — — 国 内 外 产 业 政 策 周 报 （1011）》 5、《钢铁建材等稳增长方案陆 续印发，美国众议院代表团访华 — — 国 内 外 产 业 政 策 周 报 （0927）》 6、《三行 ...

事件： 美光于12月18日公布FY26Q1财报，营收136.4亿美元，同比+57%/环比+21%； 毛利率 56.8%，同比+11.1pcts/环比+11pcts。 评论： 1、FY26Q1 收入和毛利率均超指引上限，盈利能力同环比大幅提升。 FY26Q1 收入 136.4 亿美元，同比+57%/环比+21%，超指引上限（125±3 亿美 元）；毛利率 56.8%，同比+11.1pcts/环比+11pcts，超指引上限（51.5%±1pct）； 净利率 40.2%，同比+16.8pcts/环比+9.5pcts；EPS 4.78 美金，超指引预期。 2、DRAM 及 NAND 位元出货量有所增长，ASP 环比持续提升。 证券研究报告 | 行业简评报告 2025 年 12 月 19 日 业绩及指引大超预期，指引 25-28 年 HBM CAGR 达 40% 美光 FY26Q1 跟踪报告 TMT 及中小盘/电子 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 1.5 38.4 38.1 相对表现 1.9 20.1 21.4 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 -20 0 20 40 60 Dec/24 Apr/25 Aug/25 No ...

2）零部件制造商：国内周期向上背景下，零部件企业基本面有望迎来整 体改善，同时各家企业受益于新兴业务多元化拓展催化，建议关注【恒 立液压】【艾迪精密】【长龄液压】【唯万密封】。 3）高机/叉车制造商：短期看，新兴市场提供新增长点，发达市场或将 迎来新一轮景气周期，板块业绩有望稳健增长；长期看，除突出的国际 化、锂电化α外，各家企业针对无人化新品的积极布局将打开成长空间、 增强核心竞争力。建议关注【浙江鼎力】【安徽合力】【杭叉集团】。 ❑ 矿山机械：美元降息→资本开支上行→矿机需求景气。 证券研究报告 | 行业策略报告 2025 年 12 月 19 日 紧握确定性，拥抱新成长 工业品出口链 2026 年度策略报告 中游制造/机械 回顾 2025 年，内需支撑有限、海外摩擦不断的背景下，国内工业品出口链企业 通过把握新兴市场结构性景气的机遇，整体显现了突出的韧性。展望 2026 年， 美联储降息预期升温、能源供给持续紧张的背景下，发达市场有望迎来需求复 苏，海外β或将由区域分化迈向统一向上，工业品出口链充分受益，其中：① 从确定性的角度，我们重点看好工程机械板块投资机会；②从成长性的角度， 我们重点看好矿山机械、 ...

证券研究报告 | 策略研究 2025 年 12 月 19 日 美联储如期降息，国内 ETF 转为净流出 ——金融市场流动性与监管动态周报（1219） 上周二级市场可跟踪资金净流入，其中融资仍作为主力增量资金。上周美联储 如期降息 25bp，整体内容基本符合市场对"鹰派降息"的预期，并且重新开启 扩表、启用 RMP 补充流动性。往后看，需要关注即将公布的日本央行利率决定， 流动性的变化将持续影响市场走势。 定期报告 相关报告 1. 《招商 A 股流动性研究体系与 流动性指数——A 股市流动性研 究之四》，2016 年 8 月 2. 《A 股机构投资者全景图—股 票市场 SCP 范式研究之一》， 2017 年 10 月 3. 《保险资金股票投资风险因子 下调如何影响 A 股？——金融市 场流动性与监管动态周报 （1209）》 | 招商 A 股流动性指数 | | | --- | --- | | 流动性指标 | 数值/金额（亿元） | | 资金供给 | | | 公募基金发行 | 111.10↑ | | ETF 净申购 | 31.16↑ | | 融资净买入 | 76.43↓ | | 资金需求 | | | 限售解禁 | ...

Macro Analysis - The central economic work conference highlighted ongoing challenges in the economy, including external environmental changes and risks in key sectors, while emphasizing the need to balance domestic economic work and international trade struggles [2][3] - The conference introduced five "musts" for economic work, focusing on the integration of investment in physical and human capital and the importance of internal strengthening to address external challenges [2] Policy Orientation - The policy tone for the upcoming year shifts from "strengthening extraordinary counter-cyclical adjustments" to "increasing counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustment efforts," indicating a decrease in urgency but maintaining a proactive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policy [3] - Fiscal policy will maintain necessary levels of deficit, debt, and total expenditure, while monetary policy will focus on stabilizing growth and promoting inflation, with expectations for adjustments in interest rates and reserve requirements [3] Key Economic Work Areas - The economic work for the next year will focus on eight key areas, with an emphasis on expanding domestic demand through urban renewal policies and increasing investment scale to counteract negative growth in investment [7] - The conference reiterated the importance of stabilizing the real estate market through targeted measures, including inventory reduction and supply optimization, indicating a potentially more proactive stance on real estate policies [8][18] Real Estate Market Insights - The conference emphasized "high-quality urban renewal" as a crucial strategy for expanding investment and stimulating domestic demand, with expectations for financial tools to support urban renewal projects [17] - The focus on stabilizing the real estate market has shifted from aggressive measures to a more balanced approach, with an emphasis on controlling supply and inventory while encouraging the acquisition of existing properties for affordable housing [18][20] ESG Developments - The report highlighted significant ESG policies, including the expansion of the national carbon trading market and the promotion of integrated development in the renewable energy sector, which are crucial for achieving carbon neutrality goals [21][22] - The issuance of green financial bonds and the successful launch of digital green bonds in Hong Kong reflect growing market recognition and support for sustainable finance initiatives [24][25]

Investment Rating - The report gives an "Accumulate" investment rating for the company [3]. Core Insights - The company is a leading enterprise in the domestic high-temperature alloy recycling technology, focusing on high-return recycling of high-temperature alloys and key strategic material import substitution [5][11]. - The company has shown significant breakthroughs in the preparation of high-temperature alloy recycling and has a strong market potential across multiple industries, including aerospace, gas turbines, and nuclear engineering [5][11]. - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 26.57 billion yuan in 2025 to 35.60 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding net profits of 1.19 billion yuan and 2.09 billion yuan respectively [5][6]. Financial Data and Valuation - Total revenue (in million yuan) for the years 2023 to 2027 is projected as follows: 2035, 2508, 2657, 3043, and 3560, with year-on-year growth rates of 58%, 23%, 6%, 15%, and 17% respectively [2]. - The company’s net profit for the same period is expected to be 151 million, 162 million, 119 million, 159 million, and 209 million yuan, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 41%, 7%, -26%, 34%, and 32% [6]. - The company’s current market capitalization is 12.6 billion yuan, with a circulating market value of 9.5 billion yuan [3]. Company Overview - The company, established in August 2007, is a key production and R&D base for high-end equipment manufacturing materials in China, focusing on high-temperature alloys and special alloy materials [11]. - The company has a diverse shareholding structure, with the main shareholder holding 15.13% of the shares [3][11]. - The company’s main products include high-temperature alloys, high-performance alloys, and high-quality special stainless steels, which are crucial for various high-end industries [17][21]. Market Demand and Growth Potential - The demand for high-temperature alloys is expected to grow significantly due to increasing defense budgets, military aircraft upgrades, and the acceleration of domestic engine replacements in the civil aviation sector [5][11]. - The aerospace sector is projected to see a rise in the number and quality of rocket launches, leading to increased demand for high-temperature alloys used in rocket engines [5][11]. - The nuclear power sector is also expected to grow rapidly due to the acceleration of nuclear power station construction and equipment exports [5][11]. Technology and Competitive Advantage - The company has developed advanced recycling technologies that significantly reduce costs and improve efficiency, achieving a quality and stability level that surpasses new materials [5][11]. - The company’s high-temperature alloy products are primarily deformation alloys, which are widely used in critical components for aerospace, nuclear engineering, and gas turbines [5][11]. - The company has established itself as a leader in the domestic market for high-temperature alloy recycling technology, with a focus on achieving high-value, high-efficiency, and high-technology recycling of strategic materials [5][11].

证券研究报告 | 行业定期报告 2025 年 12 月 17 日 中国 AI 大模型快速发展，巨人《超自然行动组》表现强劲 传媒互联网行业周报 TMT 及中小盘/传媒 近期我们继续坚定推荐各个细分行业龙头公司，我们继续坚定看好【神州泰岳】 【南方传媒】【分众传媒】【完美世界】【恺英网络】【巨人网络】【腾讯控 股】【昆仑万维】【中国科传】【芒果超媒】【哔哩哔哩】【中文在线】等 ❑ 风险提示：互联网行业监管风险、游戏行业市场竞争加剧的风险、关税政策 风险等。 行业规模 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 160 | 3.1 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 1857.5 | 1.8 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 1710.6 | 1.8 | 行业指数 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 -5.4 7.9 1.4 相对表现 -2.6 -8.2 -13.6 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 Dec/24 Apr/25 Aug/25 Nov/25 (%) 传媒 沪深300 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 相关报告 1、《互联网行业周报—GPT-5.2 发布， 关注 20 ...

Market Overview and Outlook - The recent Hong Kong stock market has not stabilized following overseas interest rate cuts, primarily due to two internal liquidity issues: the implementation of new public fund benchmark regulations, which may lead to selling of some over-allocated Hong Kong stocks, and a significant demand for funds in the market [2][4] - Despite these narratives, the overall impact on the market is considered limited, with attention on upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data that could reignite rate cut expectations if significantly below forecasts, potentially improving market sentiment [2][4] Industry and Index Recommendations - Recommended sectors include Internet (CSI 30), Non-ferrous Metals (CSI 931947), and Non-bank financials (CSI 931024) [4][17] - The Internet sector is highlighted for its strong cloud revenue growth and low valuations following recent declines [17] - The Non-ferrous Metals sector is expected to benefit from an impending interest rate cut cycle and global inflation trends [17] - The insurance sector is poised to gain from increased equity positions and expanding interest margins [17] Recent Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market experienced more declines than gains last week, with the Hang Seng Index down 0.42% and the Hang Seng Tech Index down 0.43% [18][21] - The market saw limited sector performance, with only the financial and information technology sectors showing gains, while the energy sector led the declines [21][18] Micro Liquidity Analysis - The average daily trading volume in the Hong Kong market reached 2,071 million HKD, reflecting a 203 million HKD increase week-on-week, placing it in the 72.8 percentile over the past three years [25] - The 14-day RSI for the Hang Seng Index is at 42.6, indicating a neutral sentiment [27] Fund Flow Analysis - Southbound funds recorded a net outflow of 3.4 billion HKD for the first time in six months, while local and foreign funds saw simultaneous net inflows [30][37] - Local ETFs experienced a net inflow of 5.1 billion HKD last week, totaling 45.9 billion HKD year-to-date [31] - Foreign funds through ETFs net bought 2.63 million USD, with cumulative net inflows since 2024 reaching 14.4 billion USD [34] Valuation Levels - The current P/E ratio for the Hang Seng Index is 11.5, compared to a three-year median of 10.1 and an eight-year average of 10.1 [41] Funding Demand - As of December 12, the funding demand for Hong Kong-listed companies in December is estimated at 18.6 billion HKD, with IPO and placement needs at 9.8 billion and 8.1 billion HKD, respectively [45]

汽车行业点评报告 特斯拉股价年内新高简评和更新 中游制造/汽车 12 月 15 日，马斯克证实奥斯汀开始测试 robotaxi 去掉安全员；当日特斯拉估 计创年内新高。我们点评如下。 ❑ 事件： 12 月 15 日，马斯克证实奥斯汀开始测试 robotaxi 去掉安全员。特斯拉股价 在纳指回调背景下收涨 3.56%，市值 1.58 万亿美元，创年内新高，紧逼 24 年末历史峰值。 ❑ 简评： 1）近期股价走强主要交易 robotaxi 进展。我们多次强调，奥斯汀去掉安全员 是年末最重要催化，是 robotaxi 商业化落地的里程碑。马斯克多次重申年内 达成。 2）在补贴取消导致汽车业务展望受损后，特斯拉股价在 Q4 仍向上突破，验 证了市场对特斯拉的估值向 AI（robotaxi+机器人）切换的叙事有韧性。 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 266 | 5.2 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 4531.3 | 4.3 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 3913.0 | 4.1 | ❑ 更新： 1）FSD 方面，11 月底特斯拉推送 FSD V14 免费试用。第 ...

Group 1: Brand Segment - High-End Leading, Mass Market Under Pressure - Luxury goods in China have shown sequential improvement in sales, driven by a low base in 2024 and the wealth effect from the capital market, leading to stable purchasing power among high-net-worth individuals [2][13] - High-end jewelry is experiencing rapid growth due to rising gold prices and the integration of traditional Chinese culture into high-end brand craftsmanship, with companies like Lao Pu and Chao Hong Ji achieving significant revenue increases [2][17] - High-end sportswear brands are meeting the demands of affluent consumers for running, outdoor activities, and casual wear, with brands like ON and Amer Sports reporting over 100% and 40% growth in the Greater China region, respectively [2][25] Group 2: Mass Market Pressure - Mass market apparel brands like Hailan and Semir are expected to see low single-digit growth, with discounting not significantly improving [3] - Traditional mass-market jewelry brands are facing revenue declines due to rising gold prices and a decrease in purchasing power among their consumer base, leading to a noticeable downward trend in income [3][61] Group 3: Manufacturing Segment - Weak Recovery Expected - The demand for apparel in the U.S. is showing steady growth, with retail inventory levels at a low point, suggesting a potential for inventory replenishment in 2026 [4][64] - Major OEM manufacturers are expected to see improved order growth and marginal profit recovery in 2026, despite cautious expansion due to previous tariff impacts [4][73] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The trend towards high-end jewelry is solidifying, with industry leaders shifting from channel expansion and product homogeneity to focusing on product differentiation and quality [5] - Recommended brands include Lao Pu for its unique gold craftsmanship, and Chow Tai Fook for its brand and channel upgrades [9] - In the sportswear sector, Li Ning is highlighted for its marketing upgrades and product innovations, with a focus on serving the Chinese Olympic Committee and launching new technologies [9][56]