Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [3]. Core Insights - The company has demonstrated superior profitability compared to the industry, leveraging cost optimization and product structure adjustments to mitigate risks associated with low chicken prices. The outlook for the white-feathered chicken breeding segment is promising, which is expected to benefit the downstream market, indicating potential for value extraction across the entire industry chain [1][6]. - The company is projected to achieve significant revenue growth, with total revenue expected to reach 21,519 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a 16% year-on-year increase. The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 1,398 million yuan, representing a 93% increase compared to the previous year [2][20]. - The company is focusing on cost reduction and efficiency improvements, with a projected decline of over 5% in comprehensive meat production costs in 2025. The C-end revenue is expected to grow by over 30%, with offline channels seeing growth exceeding 40% [6][13]. Financial Data and Valuation - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: 18,487 million yuan in 2023, 18,586 million yuan in 2024, 21,519 million yuan in 2025, 23,646 million yuan in 2026, and 26,008 million yuan in 2027 [2][20]. - The company's operating profit is expected to grow significantly, with estimates of 1,606 million yuan in 2025 and 2,193 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a 100% increase in 2025 and a 29% increase in 2027 [2][20]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 1.12 yuan in 2025 and 1.58 yuan in 2027, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio expected to decrease from 14.4 in 2025 to 10.2 in 2027 [2][21]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is well-positioned in the market with a breeding capacity exceeding 700 million birds and a steady increase in slaughter volume. The integration of the entire industry chain and self-sufficiency in breeding sources provide a buffer against industry cyclicality [6][13]. - The company is actively expanding its deep processing capabilities and implementing a multi-channel strategy, which has successfully opened up growth opportunities in its food business [6][13]. - The white-feathered chicken breeding segment is expected to maintain high profitability due to a decrease in imported breeding stock and the impact of avian influenza on supply, which will likely affect the downstream market positively [6][13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for leading internet companies with stable performance and strong AI sector positioning, such as Tencent Holdings, Kuaishou, Bilibili, and Meitu [1]. Core Insights - The internet industry is witnessing accelerated iterations in various applications and edge computing, highlighted by the successful IPOs of Zhipu and MiniMax, which are expected to drive investment opportunities [1]. - MiniMax, a global AI company, achieved a market capitalization exceeding HKD 100 billion shortly after its IPO, reflecting strong market interest and growth potential in the AI sector [1][11]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on companies that are leading in AI applications and have shown robust performance in recent quarters [1]. Industry Overview - The internet industry comprises 160 listed companies with a total market capitalization of approximately CNY 2,329.4 billion and a circulating market value of CNY 2,142.5 billion [4]. - The overall market performance from January 5 to January 11 shows the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 3.82%, while the Hang Seng Internet Technology Index fell by 1.08% [13]. - The industry indices indicate a strong performance in the integrated service sector, with a 20.73% increase during the same period [13]. Company Performance - Tencent Holdings reported a slight decline of 1.93% in its stock price, while Kuaishou and Bilibili saw increases of 12.75% and 11.87%, respectively [18]. - The report highlights the strong revenue growth of Tencent's gaming business, with a 23% year-on-year increase in Q3, driven by popular titles and international market expansion [20].

Fiscal Overview - In FY 2026, the weighted average fiscal expenditure of major global economies is projected to increase from 33.2% of GDP in FY 2025 to 33.5%[6] - The deficit rate is expected to rise from 5.7% in FY 2025 to 6.0% in FY 2026, indicating a further expansion of fiscal policies[6] Economic Differentiation - Countries like China, the US, Eurozone, Japan, and South Korea will see an increase in fiscal expenditure as a percentage of GDP, while the UK, Canada, Australia, and Russia will experience a decrease[10] - The US will implement significant tax cuts under the "Great American Act," reducing fiscal revenue as a percentage of GDP, while other economies are expected to enhance fiscal revenue efforts[11] Investment Focus - Most economies are prioritizing fiscal investment in military and emerging industries, with the US increasing military and homeland security spending in FY 2026[12] - The Eurozone will boost defense spending, while Japan will introduce new defense-related taxes to support its military budget[12] Country-Specific Insights - **United States**: Fiscal expenditure is projected to rise from 22.8% of GDP in FY 2025 to 23.3% in FY 2026, despite tax cuts[23] - **Eurozone**: Fiscal expenditure is expected to increase from 51.5% of GDP in FY 2025 to 51.7% in FY 2026[2] - **Japan**: The fiscal expenditure is anticipated to rise from 19.9% of GDP in FY 2025 to a historical high in FY 2026[2] - **South Korea**: Fiscal expenditure will increase from 25.5% of GDP in FY 2025 to 26.6% in FY 2026, with a focus on emerging industries and national security[2] - **Canada**: Fiscal expenditure is projected to decrease from 18.4% of GDP in FY 2025 to 18.0% in FY 2026, while aiming to increase capital investment[2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the commercial aerospace industry, particularly focusing on the investment opportunities in the rocket supply chain due to existing supply gaps and the long-term potential of rocket manufacturers and satellite industry chains with commercial model advantages [1]. Core Insights - The Chinese commercial aerospace industry is identified as a strategic emerging industry that resonates with national strategies and industrial trends, expected to witness significant developments in 2026, including reusable rocket technology validation and IPO progress of commercial aerospace companies [1]. - The current core bottleneck in the industry is the insufficient launch capacity, which is crucial for the scaled development of the sector. The report highlights that in 2025, the global launch capacity is dominated by the US, with a significant gap compared to China [5][6]. - The report emphasizes the importance of reusable rocket technology, which can transform rockets from disposable assets to reusable ones, significantly reducing launch costs and increasing launch frequency and payload capacity [5][6]. Industry Overview - The commercial aerospace industry in China has developed a complete industrial chain consisting of satellites, rockets, and launch sites, gradually extending to measurement and control and applications [5]. - As of 2025, the US has conducted 193 rocket launches, while China has conducted 92, indicating a competitive landscape where the US currently leads [5]. - The report notes that the US has deployed 3,724 satellites compared to China's 372, highlighting the disparity in satellite deployment capabilities [5]. Investment Logic - Short-term opportunities are identified in the rocket supply chain due to the current launch capacity constraints, with specific recommendations for companies involved in high-value components and materials [6]. - Long-term prospects are focused on the transformation of rocket manufacturers' business models towards launch operations and the anticipated growth in satellite demand once the launch capacity bottleneck is resolved [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the semiconductor industry, particularly for TSMC, with expectations of strong revenue growth and profitability in the coming years [4][23]. Core Insights - TSMC's Q4 2025 revenue reached $33.73 billion, exceeding guidance, with a year-over-year growth of 25.5% and a gross margin of 62.3% [1][19]. - The company anticipates Q1 2026 revenue between $34.6 billion and $35.8 billion, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 38.6% [3][23]. - TSMC's capital expenditure for 2026 is projected to be between $52 billion and $56 billion, with a significant portion allocated to advanced process technologies [4][25]. - The AI market is expected to drive substantial growth, with AI accelerator revenue projected to account for 15% of total revenue in 2025 [4][26]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - TSMC's Q4 2025 revenue was $33.73 billion, with a gross margin of 62.3%, driven by improved capacity utilization and cost optimization [1][19]. - The company reported a net profit of $16.37 billion for Q4 2025, a year-over-year increase of 34.98% [1][19]. - For the full year 2025, TSMC's revenue was $122 billion, reflecting a 35.9% year-over-year growth [1][22]. Advanced Technology and Market Segmentation - Advanced process technologies (3nm, 5nm, and 7nm) accounted for 77% of TSMC's revenue, with 3nm technology representing 28% [2][20]. - The high-performance computing (HPC) segment generated $18.55 billion in revenue, while smartphone revenue was $10.79 billion [2][20]. Capital Expenditure and Growth Projections - TSMC's capital expenditure for 2025 was $40.9 billion, with 70%-80% allocated to advanced process technologies [4][25]. - The company has raised its CAGR forecast for AI-related revenue from 2024 to 2029 to 55%-59% [4][26]. Future Outlook - TSMC expects Q1 2026 gross margin to be between 63% and 65%, with potential dilution from overseas expansion and new technology ramp-up [3][24]. - The company plans to enhance production efficiency and expand capacity to meet growing demand, particularly in AI and HPC sectors [26][27].

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating to "Strong Buy" for the company [4]. Core Views - The company is expected to experience performance elasticity driven by high copper paste and storage businesses, with a focus on its aerospace and space photovoltaic layout [7]. - The company anticipates a net profit loss of 200-300 million yuan for 2025, with a non-recurring net profit loss of 160-240 million yuan [1]. - The rapid increase in silver prices is expected to accelerate the replacement of precious metal pastes, with the company's high copper paste expected to see significant volume in 2026 [7]. - The acquisition of Sot has positioned the company as a global leader in photovoltaic paste market share, leveraging global customer advantages in new space photovoltaic scenarios [7]. - The semiconductor second curve is beginning to ramp up, with the storage chip business projected to generate approximately 500 million yuan in revenue for 2025 [7]. - The company is expected to achieve net profits of -250 million, 530 million, and 740 million yuan from 2025 to 2027, respectively [7]. Financial Data and Valuation - Total revenue is projected to grow from 9,603 million yuan in 2023 to 22,032 million yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 155% in 2023 and 10% in 2027 [3][11]. - The company's net profit is expected to recover from a loss of 247 million yuan in 2025 to a profit of 740 million yuan in 2027 [3][11]. - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected to decrease from 30.4 in 2023 to 15.8 in 2027, indicating improved valuation over time [3][11]. - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve from -16.1% in 2025 to 32.7% in 2027 [11].

证券研究报告 | 行业定期报告 2026 年 01 月 15 日 智谱和 Minimax 上市表现亮眼，AI 应用爆发 传媒互联网行业周报 TMT 及中小盘/传媒 近期我们继续坚定推荐各个细分行业龙头公司，我们继续坚定看好【神州泰岳】 【南方传媒】【分众传媒】【完美世界】【恺英网络】【巨人网络】【腾讯控 股】【昆仑万维】【中国科传】【芒果超媒】【哔哩哔哩】【中文在线】等 ❑ 过去的一周，传媒行业上涨了 13.55%，在所有行业中排名第 2 位，传媒板块 年初到现在上涨了 23.49%，排名所有板块第 1 名。开年一周，传媒板块在游 戏和 AI 应用的双重带动下突飞猛进，AI 应用龙头公司蓝色光标，易点天下， 昆仑万维等涨幅巨大，而 AI 应用背后大涨的原因，我们认为有三件事值得关 注：一件事就是近期阿里加大投入淘宝闪购，股价出现调整，但美股阿里巴 巴大涨，毫无疑问，这是投资者对其未来 AI 业务发展的肯定和期待；其次， MINIMAX 已经于 1 月 9 日敲钟上市，创下近年来港股 IPO 机构认购历史记录。 此次参与 MiniMaxIPO 认购的机构超过 460 家，超额认购达 70 多倍。而且很 多都是各 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the poultry farming industry is "Strongly Recommended" for key companies such as Shengnong Development, Wens Foodstuff Group, and Lihua Co., Ltd. [4] Core Insights - The report highlights that the price of white feather chickens has reached a yearly high, significantly improving profitability in the breeding sector. The supply of chickens is tightening, and the impact of avian influenza on imports is expected to boost the breeding segment's outlook. Yellow feather chickens continue to maintain good profitability. [2][10][12] Summary by Sections White Feather Chicken - The average price of broiler chickens in December reached 7.44 yuan/kg, showing a year-on-year decrease of 1.5% but a month-on-month increase of 4.3%. The average price of chicken products was 9088 yuan/ton, down 2.4% year-on-year but up 2% month-on-month. The breeding sector saw a loss of 0.26 yuan per chicken, but profitability has improved significantly compared to the previous year. [10][11] - The average price of chicken seedlings in December was 3.54 yuan per chick, down 11.1% year-on-year but up 1.2% month-on-month. Major companies like Yisheng sold 61.74 million chicks, a year-on-year increase of 39.6%. [11] - The report notes that the import volume of grandparent stock white feather chickens in China decreased by over 10% year-on-year, and avian influenza outbreaks in France have further impacted imports, leading to a positive outlook for the breeding segment. [12][31] Yellow Feather Chicken - The average price of fast-growing yellow feather chickens in December was 4.24 yuan per jin, down 13.4% year-on-year and 12% month-on-month. The average price of Xueshan grass chickens was 7.93 yuan per jin, down 5% year-on-year but up 3.3% month-on-month. The winter season has improved consumption, maintaining good profitability in the breeding sector. [22][26] - The report indicates that the production capacity of parent yellow feather chickens has dropped to historically low levels, which, combined with prolonged industry losses, is expected to lead to a supply contraction and set the stage for price increases in 2026. [27][31] - The cost of raising yellow feather chickens has decreased, with major companies reporting costs around 5.7 yuan per jin for Wens and 5.5-5.6 yuan per jin for Lihua. A recovery in chicken prices is anticipated to significantly enhance profitability. [27][31] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the breeding segment of white feather chickens, with Shengnong Development highlighted as a key investment opportunity. For yellow feather chickens, Lihua Co., Ltd. and Dekang Agriculture are recommended due to their favorable cost structures and potential for profitability in the upcoming period. [30][31]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the agricultural sector, indicating a positive outlook for the industry fundamentals [14]. Core Insights - The USDA's January report revises global corn, soybean, and wheat production forecasts upwards, suggesting a more favorable supply situation for these crops [14]. - The report highlights a significant narrowing of the global corn supply-demand gap, with total demand expected to reach a record 1.3 billion tons for the 2025/26 season [1][2]. - Global wheat supply is projected to be ample, with an increase in the ending stock-to-use ratio, which is expected to rise to 33.8% for the 2025/26 season [7][8]. - The soybean market is characterized by a slight increase in global production expectations, primarily driven by favorable conditions in Brazil and the U.S., despite a minor downward adjustment in China's production [10][11]. Summary by Sections Corn - The USDA report revises the 2025/26 global corn production forecast upwards by approximately 13.05 million tons to 1.296 billion tons, a 5.3% increase year-on-year [1]. - The U.S. corn production is adjusted to a record 170 million bushels, reflecting a 14.3% increase from the previous year [2]. - The global corn ending stock-to-use ratio is projected at 22.4%, down 1.16 percentage points from the previous year [1][5]. Wheat - The global wheat production forecast is raised by about 4.36 million tons to 842 million tons for the 2025/26 season, a 5.2% year-on-year increase [7]. - The report indicates a total global wheat consumption increase of 0.11% year-on-year, with a projected surplus of 18.26 million tons [7][8]. - The ending stock-to-use ratio for wheat is expected to increase to 33.8%, reflecting a more comfortable supply situation [7][8]. Soybeans - The global soybean production forecast is increased by approximately 3.14 million tons to 426 million tons for the 2025/26 season, despite a slight decrease in China's production [10][12]. - U.S. soybean production is adjusted to 116 million tons, a 2.6% decrease year-on-year, while total consumption is expected to rise by 5.6% [11][13]. - The global soybean ending stock-to-use ratio is projected at 29.4%, down 0.44 percentage points from the previous year [10][12].

证券研究报告 | 行业联合报告 2026 年 01 月 14 日 招商证券 | 总量的视野 电话会议纪要（20260111） 研究部/总量研究 【宏观】1 月降息预期打消；【策略】2026 开年产业趋势新变化；【固收】开 年债市急跌的原因及后续展望；【银行】存款到期规模与可能的流向；【非银】 16 连阳，看好券商保险；【地产】REITs：25 年回顾及 26 年展望；【资配】 A 股择时轮动模型年度复盘及展望；【基金评价】公开募集证券投资基金销售 费用解读；【ESG】12 月国内 ESG 动态跟踪 【宏观 张岸天】1 月降息预期打消 12 月美国非农数据细节冷热参差，尽管私营部门就业增速放缓，整体上失业率 回落和时薪增速反弹的数据组合基本打消了海外市场对美联储1 月降息的预期。 分行业来看，周期性行业多表现疲弱，同时政府部门就业增速转正，DOGE 减 员的滞后统计影响出现消退。制造业连续三个月减员，录得-0.8 万人（前值-0.2 万人）。建筑业减员 1.1 万人（前值 2.2 万人），移民政策变化致使供需双弱。 零售业减员 2.5 万人（前值-1.7 万人），运输仓储业减员-0.7 万人（前值-2.5 万人 ...