Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on the lithium hexafluorophosphate sector due to rising prices of related products [4]. Core Insights - The chemical sector experienced a decline of 3.95% in the third week of October, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.80 percentage points [10]. - The dynamic PE for the chemical sector is 24.75 times, which is significantly higher than the average PE of 9.73 times since 2015 [10]. - The report highlights significant price increases for sulfuric acid (+6.21%) and hydrogen peroxide (+6.04%), while liquid chlorine saw a dramatic rise of +176.79% [3][17]. - The report indicates that only one sub-industry, daily chemical products, saw an increase (+0.51%), while 31 sub-industries declined, with fiberglass experiencing the largest drop (-10.12%) [2][14]. Industry Performance - The top five stocks in the chemical sector for the week included Chengxing Co. (+25.12%) and Shida Shenghua (+18.01%), while the worst performers included Hubei Yihua (-14.09%) and Guoci Materials (-13.8%) [10]. - The report notes that the chemical industry had a total of 449 listed companies with a total market value of 6710.3 billion [5]. Price and Spread Trends - The report lists the top five products with the highest weekly price increases, including liquid chlorine (+176.79%) and sulfuric acid (+6.21%) [3][17]. - The report also details the top five products with the largest price spread increases, such as PTA spread (+28.74%) and heavy soda ash spread (+18.88%) [38][40]. Inventory Changes - Significant inventory changes were noted, with the largest decrease in inventory for chlorpyrifos (-8.70%) and an increase for urea (+8.16%) [57].

Key Points of the Report 1. Investment Rating of the Reported Industry The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The report focuses on the weekly situation of local government bonds in 2025, analyzing the primary and secondary market conditions, including net financing, issuance terms, issuance spreads, secondary spreads, and trading volume, to help investors understand the market trends and potential investment opportunities [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Primary Market Issuance Situation - **Net Financing**: This week, local government bonds issued a total of 323 billion yuan, with a net repayment of 198 billion yuan due to a repayment volume of 521 billion yuan. New general bonds were 0 billion yuan, new special bonds were 201 billion yuan, refinancing general bonds were 25 billion yuan, and refinancing special bonds were 97 billion yuan [1][9]. - **Issuance Terms**: The 20 - year local government bonds had the highest issuance proportion (32%) this week, and the issuance proportion of bonds with a term of 10 years and above was 79%, an increase compared to last week. The 20 - year issuance proportion increased significantly, while the 7 - year decreased by about 43 percentage points [1][11]. - **Debt - Resolution - Related Local Government Bonds**: This week, 62 billion yuan of special refinancing bonds were issued. In 2025, 33 regions have disclosed plans to issue a total of 20,233 billion yuan of special bonds to replace hidden debts, with Jiangsu, Guizhou, Hunan, and Henan having 2,511 billion yuan, 1,324 billion yuan, 1,288 billion yuan, and 1,151 billion yuan respectively. Also, 31 billion yuan of special special bonds were issued this week, and as of the end of this week, 12,374 billion yuan of special special bonds have been disclosed for issuance in 2025, with Jiangsu, Guangdong, Yunnan, and Hebei issuing 1,189 billion yuan, 1,027 billion yuan, 730 billion yuan, and 702 billion yuan respectively [2][14][17]. - **Issuance Spreads**: The weighted average issuance spread of local government bonds this week was 16.4bp, narrowing compared to last week. The 15 - year local government bonds had the highest weighted average issuance spread at 24.0bp. The weighted average issuance spread of 10 - year local government bonds narrowed, while that of 7 - year bonds widened. Jilin and Liaoning had a weighted average issuance spread of over 20bp [1][22]. - **Fund - Raising Allocations**: As of the end of this week, the main allocation directions of new special bond funds in 2025 were cold - chain logistics, municipal and industrial park infrastructure construction (29%), transportation infrastructure (18%), land reserve (15%), affordable housing projects (12%), and social undertakings (11%). The proportion of land reserve increased by 15% compared to 2024, while that of cold - chain logistics, municipal and industrial park infrastructure construction decreased by 7.9% [2][26]. - **Issuance Plan**: As of the end of this week, 35 regions have disclosed the local government bond issuance plan for the fourth quarter of 2025, with a total planned issuance scale of 9,313 billion yuan, of which 5,423 billion yuan is for October. The planned issuance of new bonds and refinancing bonds in the fourth quarter is 5,832 billion yuan and 3,481 billion yuan respectively. Next week, local government bonds are planned to issue 2,472 billion yuan, with a repayment volume of 815 billion yuan and a net financing of 1,658 billion yuan, an increase of 1,855 billion yuan compared to this week [3][30][34]. Secondary Market Situation - **Secondary Spreads**: This week, the secondary spreads of 20 - year and 5 - year local government bonds were relatively high, at 16.6bp and 16.4bp respectively. The secondary spreads of 1 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 15 - year local government bonds narrowed, while those of other terms widened. From the perspective of the historical quantile in the past 3 years, the historical quantiles of the secondary spreads of 5 - year and 7 - year local government bonds were relatively high, reaching 69% and 74% respectively. Regionally, the secondary spreads of 3 - 7 - year local government bonds in each region were relatively high, all greater than or close to 15bp, and the 15 - 20 - year local government bonds in medium - level regions also had relatively high secondary spreads [4][5][37]. - **Trading Volume**: This week, the trading volume and turnover rate of local government bonds increased compared to last week. Guangdong's local government bonds had a high turnover rate. The trading volume of local government bonds this week reached 3,086 billion yuan, with a turnover rate of 0.58%. Guangdong's local government bonds had a large trading volume of 601 billion yuan and the highest turnover rate of 1.7%, higher than Ningxia's 1.1% [5][42].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [3]. Core Insights - The company achieved record high quarterly revenue and profit in Q3, exceeding market expectations, with revenue of 5.33 billion yuan and net profit of 899 million yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 25.7% and 48.7% respectively [7]. - The company has a strong order backlog, with sufficient orders supporting continued revenue growth, and has seen significant growth in overseas orders since 2024 [7]. - The company is expanding its product range and enhancing its market share, particularly in high-value products, which is expected to improve profit margins [7]. - The company is strategically investing in overseas markets, with increasing contributions from regions like Europe, North America, and Southeast Asia [7]. - The report projects significant revenue growth for the company, with expected revenues of 29.0 billion yuan, 37.5 billion yuan, and 47.0 billion yuan for 2025 to 2027 [7]. Financial Data and Valuation - Total revenue is projected to grow from 12.46 billion yuan in 2023 to 28.29 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 20% [2][24]. - Operating profit is expected to increase from 1.78 billion yuan in 2023 to 5.59 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of 25% [2][24]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to rise from 1.56 billion yuan in 2023 to 4.70 billion yuan in 2027, with a CAGR of 25% [2][24]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected to decrease from 53.3 in 2023 to 17.7 in 2027, indicating improving valuation metrics [2][24].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the industry, indicating a focus on sectors with good performance and potential recovery in demand [3]. Core Insights - The liquor sector is experiencing a gradual improvement in sales dynamics, with a continued focus on clearing inventory. The report suggests that when performance no longer declines, it will signal a potential recovery in stock prices [7][13]. - The food sector shows a divergence in performance, with new consumption categories maintaining good momentum while traditional categories face weaker demand. The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the recovery in traditional consumption [21][31]. Summary by Sections Liquor Sector - Sales dynamics in Q3 improved compared to May-June, but the report anticipates continued inventory clearance with a double-digit year-on-year decline expected. The demand from government and business sectors remains under pressure, while the banquet and mass consumption markets are relatively stable [7][13]. - Major brands like Moutai and Wuliangye are expected to see varied performance, with Moutai projected to achieve a 4% increase in revenue year-on-year, while Wuliangye may experience an 8% decline [14][16]. Food Sector - The overall demand environment in Q3 was relatively weak, with retail sales growth slowing down. However, sectors like snacks and beverages continue to show good performance, while traditional categories like seasonings and beer remain subdued [21][31]. - The report highlights that raw material costs are generally declining, but the trend is slowing down. Packaging prices have increased, impacting profit margins across various segments [24][25]. - Specific companies such as Yili and Mengniu are facing growth pressures, while new dairy companies are expected to maintain strong growth due to structural improvements [31][35]. Investment Strategy - The report recommends focusing on sectors with good performance, such as snacks and beverages, while also keeping an eye on traditional consumption recovery. Specific stock recommendations include West Wheat Foods in the snack sector and leading liquor brands like Shanxi Fenjiu and Luzhou Laojiao [10][11].

证券研究报告 | 宏观点评报告 2025 年 10 月 19 日 仍需耐心 ——宏观与大类资产周报 频率：每周 国内方面，1）9 月进出口数据好于预期，9 月财政数据显示财政支出力度较上 月增加。从 10 月高频数据来看，国庆假期前后中上游生产指标趋稳，仅地产 链处于相对低迷状态。总体而言，Q3 以来经济增速回落，但并未出现去年同 期的加速下行状态。2）稳增长政策已落地两项，政策或暂进入观望阶段。 5000 亿新型金融政策性工具以及 5000 亿地方政府债务结存限额为节前预计的 稳增长政策，未来 1-2 个月或暂时进入政策效果观望期。 海外方面，1）10 月 14 日鲍威尔表示就业下行风险的上升改变了美联储对风 险平衡的评估，暗示 10 月将继续降息、并可能即将结束缩表。2）美国地区商 业银行风险持续发酵，但与 23 年 3 月 SVB 破产事件不同，本次风险主要是坏 账问题，暂时不具有系统性。 1、《财政进入年末集中发力期 ——2025 年 9 月财政数据点 评》2025-10-18 2、《9 月金融数据怎么看》 2025-10-16 3、《PPI 回升基础得到进一步 巩固——2025 年 9 月通胀数据 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业定期报告 2025 年 10 月 19 日 新房网签面积同比降幅扩大，二手房网签面积同比转负 推荐（维持） ——样本城市周度高频数据全追踪 周期/房地产 一、核心要点 图 1：样本城市新房及二手房网签面积同比（截至 10 月 16 日） 资料来源：Wind、房管局、招商证券等 表 1：样本城市新房及二手房网签面积同比（截至 10 月 16 日） | 新房（10 | 月 | 1 日-10 月 | 16 日） | 二手房（10 | 月 | 1 日-10 月 | 16 日） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 城市能级 | 同比 | 较 | 9 月 | 城市能级 | 同比 | 较 | 9 月 | | 样本城市 | -28% | -扩大 | -25 PCT | 样本城市 | -28% | 转负 | -42 PCT | | （39 城） | | | | （16 城） | | | | | 一线城市 | -31% | 转负 | -40 PCT | 一线城市 | -30% | 转负 | -55 PCT | | （4 城） | | | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "strongly recommend" rating for several key companies in the military industry, including 中航西飞, 中航光电, 航天彩虹, and others [10]. Core Insights - The military industry is experiencing a significant rebound, with the SW National Defense Military Index increasing by 13.28% year-to-date as of October 17, 2025, although it has underperformed compared to the CSI 300 Index [14][20]. - Key events include the successful launches of two major commercial satellite constellations, which are expected to enhance the industry's growth potential [22][24]. - The upcoming 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session from October 20 to 23, 2025, is anticipated to outline new directions for the military industry, particularly in unmanned, intelligent, and systematic combat equipment [24]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The military industry has shown a decline of 4.70% in the SW National Defense Military Index this week, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 2.48 percentage points [14]. - The overall industry has ranked 16th among 31 sub-industries in terms of performance [14]. Key Events - The report highlights the recent launches of the 星网 and 千帆 satellite constellations, with 星网 completing five launches in 21 days and 千帆 planning to accelerate its launch schedule significantly [22][23]. Catalysts - The report emphasizes the importance of the upcoming 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session, which will focus on the 15th Five-Year Plan and its implications for the military industry [24]. Company Performance - The report lists several companies with strong performance expectations, including 中航沈飞, 中航西飞, and 航发动力, all rated as "strongly recommend" [10]. - The report also notes the financial metrics of these companies, indicating a robust outlook for their earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios [10]. Industry Valuation - The military industry maintains a high valuation, with the current PE ratio at 83.33 times earnings, reflecting strong investor interest despite recent market fluctuations [20].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Strong Buy" for key companies such as Shengnong Development, Wens Foodstuffs, and Lihua Co., with expected significant growth in stock prices [2][31]. Core Insights - The white feather chicken sector is experiencing a tight supply of chicks, leading to a slight increase in chick prices, but overall profitability is declining due to rising costs and low prices for broilers [1][9]. - The yellow feather chicken market shows significant recovery in both volume and price, with major companies reporting improved profitability due to rising demand and lower production costs [1][21]. - The overall poultry industry is expected to see a tightening supply of parent stock, which will positively impact chick prices in the future [9][31]. Summary by Sections White Feather Chicken - Chick prices in September averaged 3.27 yuan per chick, down 8.3% year-on-year and 0.7% month-on-month [8]. - The average price for broilers was 6.99 yuan per kilogram, down 3.2% year-on-year and 2.4% month-on-month, leading to a loss of 1 yuan per chick for producers [9]. - The supply of parent stock is expected to tighten in the second half of 2025, impacting the availability of commercial broiler chicks in 2026 [9][31]. Yellow Feather Chicken - In September, the average price for fast-growing chickens was 5.41 yuan per jin, up 2.5% year-on-year and 6% month-on-month, indicating a recovery in prices [24]. - Major companies like Wens and Lihua reported increased sales volumes, with Wens selling 123 million broilers, a 4.8% increase year-on-year [21]. - The cost of raising yellow feather chickens has decreased, with Wens' cost dropping to 5.6 yuan per jin, setting the stage for improved profitability in the fourth quarter [25][31]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the white chicken breeding sector, highlighting Shengnong Development as a key player due to its cost improvements [31]. - For yellow feather chickens, Lihua Co. and Dekang Agriculture are recommended as they are well-positioned to benefit from the expected price recovery and improved market conditions [31].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the non-ferrous metal sector, particularly highlighting the attractiveness of resource stocks due to historically low valuations expected by 2026 [1][2]. Core Insights - The ongoing tariff disputes and the potential for U.S. interest rate cuts have driven a surge in precious metal prices, while industrial metals have seen a temporary halt in price increases due to tariff threats [1]. - The report emphasizes the long-term bullish narrative for non-ferrous metals, particularly copper, and suggests that short-term adjustments present buying opportunities [1]. - Key focus areas include copper, silver, aluminum, cobalt, rare earths, tungsten, antimony, and uranium, along with new materials related to technological growth [1]. Industry Overview - The non-ferrous metal sector consists of 236 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 586.38 billion yuan, representing 5.7% of the overall market [2]. - The sector's performance over the past month shows an absolute increase of 2.7%, a 6-month increase of 48.5%, and a 12-month increase of 61.6% [3]. - The report notes that the precious metals index has outperformed other sub-sectors, with significant gains in silver and gold prices due to geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties [4]. Specific Metal Insights - **Copper**: As of October 16, copper inventories increased by 11,200 tons to 177,500 tons, while total inventories decreased by 51,700 tons year-on-year. The report anticipates a tightening supply situation for copper, with long-term price increases expected [4]. - **Aluminum**: Domestic aluminum ingot inventories decreased to 627,000 tons, indicating a positive supply-demand balance. However, macroeconomic risks may still pressure aluminum prices [4]. - **Cobalt**: Cobalt prices have risen due to supply constraints from the Democratic Republic of Congo, with strong demand from the electric vehicle and consumer electronics sectors [4]. - **Rare Earths**: The report highlights a mixed performance in rare earth prices, with a significant drop in praseodymium-neodymium oxide prices due to increased supply and cautious purchasing from downstream manufacturers [4]. New Materials and Technologies - The report discusses advancements in fusion energy and the potential for increased demand for uranium, with a focus on companies involved in uranium mining and production [5]. - It also notes the optimistic outlook for lithium and nickel due to strong demand in battery manufacturing, with prices for lithium carbonate showing slight increases [5].

证券研究报告 | 金融工程 2025 年 10 月 19 日 利率价量择时信号整体仍偏多 ——利率市场趋势定量跟踪 20251017 利率市场结构变化 - 10 年期国债到期收益率录得 1.82%，相对上周下降 2.14BP。当前 利率水平、期限和凸性结构读数分别为 1.64%、0.38%、-0.09%， 从均值回归视角看，目前处于水平结构点位偏低、期限结构点位 偏低、凸性结构点位接近历史低位的状态。 利率价量周期择时信号：5 年期看多、10 年期中性、30 年期看多 美债价量周期择时信号：偏多 - 基于 5 年国债 YTM 测算的利率多周期择时信号为：长周期向下突 破、中周期无信号、短周期向下突破。综合来看，当前合计下行突 破 2 票、上行突破 0 票，最终信号的综合评分结果为看多。 - 基于 10 年国债 YTM 测算的利率多周期择时信号为：长周期无信 号、中周期无信号、短周期向下突破。综合来看，当前合计下行突 破 1 票、上行突破 0 票，最终信号的综合评分结果为中性震荡。 - 基于 30 年国债 YTM 测算的利率多周期择时信号为：长周期无信 号、中周期向下突破、短周期向下突破。综合来看，当前合计下行 ...