证券研究报告 | 行业定期报告 2025 年 05 月 16 日 泡泡玛特 Labubu 三代搪胶毛绒全球发售，关注腾讯一季报 传媒互联网行业周报 TMT 及中小盘/传媒 近期我们继续坚定推荐各个细分行业龙头公司，我们继续坚定看好【神州泰岳】 【南方传媒】【分众传媒】【完美世界】【恺英网络】【巨人网络】【腾讯控 股】【昆仑万维】【中国科传】【芒果超媒】【哔哩哔哩】【中文在线】等 ❑ 过去的一周，传媒行业上涨了 2.79%，在所有行业中排名第 11 位，传媒板块 年初到现在上涨了 4.61%，排名所有板块第 5 名。近期，传媒板块走势相对 稳定，游戏出版营销影视都相对平稳，但在这个位置，我们继续坚定看好游 戏板块和 AI 应用板块，特别是 AGENT 板块，我们最近一直持续紧密跟踪国内 外 AI 应用，因为贸易争端带来的海外科技大跌，最先反弹甚至创新高的就是 像多邻国，PALANTIR，APP 这样的 AI 应用公司，他们创新高的核心推动力就 是 AI 帮助其收入业绩和产品快速提升。同样，国内的 AI 应用也在蓄势待发， 我们继续坚定看好受 AI 变革影响较大的游戏互联网巨头（中概互联的腾讯、 美图、第四范式、 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Add" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company demonstrates resilience in performance despite industry challenges, with profit margins expected to improve through quality enhancement and efficiency [2][9] - The company has actively closed 1,078 stores in 2024, primarily in the second half of the year, which has had a short-term impact on revenue growth but is anticipated to enhance profitability in the long run [2][9] - The company plans to increase cash dividends to enhance shareholder returns, distributing a total of 788 million yuan in cash dividends in 2024, which represents 51.56% of net profit [2] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 24.062 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.53%, and a net profit of 1.529 billion yuan, reflecting an 8.26% increase [1][4] - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 6.009 billion yuan, with a net profit of 449 million yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 10.51% [1] - The company expects to achieve net profits of 1.759 billion yuan, 2.025 billion yuan, and 2.297 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 19, 16, and 14 [9][12] Market Position and Strategy - The company has a well-established specialized store network, with a focus on regional expansion, having opened 2,512 new stores in 2024 [9] - The company has embraced online new retail, generating online revenue of 2.127 billion yuan in 2024, with O2O contributing 1.721 billion yuan [9] - The company continues to enhance its digital transformation and supply chain optimization, which is expected to drive profitability improvements [2][9]

证券研究报告 | 行业定期报告 2025 年 05 月 15 日 龙头轻装上阵，景气改善可期 乳制品 24 年及 25 年一季报回顾 消费品/食品饮料 相关报告 1、《业绩磨底产业出清，第二阶段 具备配置价值—白酒行业 24 年年报 25 年一季报回顾》2025-05-12 2、《食品饮料行业周报（5.11）— 成长赛道仍具看点，关注股东大会催 化》2025-05-12 24 年行业需求承压，伊利蒙牛等龙头企业去库存梳理渠道，同时一次性计提商 誉减值，理清包袱轻装上阵。奶价下行板块毛利率有所提升，同时费用更加高 效投入，25Q1 企业盈利呈现改善态势。全年来看，行业供给侧上游牧场加速 去化，需求端政策预期增强，今年有望实现供需平衡的进一步改善，景气度提 升，板块龙头业绩改善确定性更强。 推荐（维持） 行业规模 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 143 | 2.8 | | 食品饮料 (%) | | 沪深300 | | 总市值（十亿元） 30 | 5149.7 | 6.0 | | 流通市值（十亿 20 | 4901.8 | 6.2 | 行业指数 0 % 1m ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [1][7]. Core Insights - The company's revenue for Q1 2025 reached 5.57 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 57%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 0.665 billion yuan, up 138% year-on-year, primarily due to the consolidation of COFCO Packaging [1][6]. - The report indicates that the acquisition of COFCO Packaging is expected to enhance revenue and net profit, with a stable profit margin and potential for improved profitability in the two-piece can segment [1][7]. - The report forecasts net profits for 2025-2027 to be 1.24 billion yuan, 1.28 billion yuan, and 1.49 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 56%, 4%, and 16% respectively [7]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 13.67 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 1.2% year-on-year, with a net profit of 0.791 billion yuan, an increase of 2.1% year-on-year [6][10]. - The gross margin for 2024 was 16.3%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 5.7%, up 0.3 percentage points year-on-year [6][11]. - The company’s total assets are projected to reach 28.37 billion yuan by 2025, with a total liability of 17.93 billion yuan, indicating a healthy balance sheet [9][10]. Business Segmentation - The metal packaging segment generated revenue of 12.12 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 0.7%, with a gross margin of 18.13% [6][7]. - Domestic revenue for 2024 was 12.49 billion yuan, down 1.2% year-on-year, while overseas sales were 1.18 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.4% year-on-year [6][7]. Operational Efficiency - The company’s inventory turnover days improved from 52 days in 2024 to 42 days in Q1 2025, indicating better inventory management [6][7]. - The cash flow from operating activities was negative in Q1 2025 at -0.4 billion yuan, primarily due to acquisition-related expenditures [6][7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the poultry farming industry is "Strongly Recommended" for key companies such as Shengnong Development, Wens Foodstuffs, and Lihua Co., Ltd. [2][32] Core Insights - In April 2025, chicken prices for both yellow feather and white feather chickens showed signs of recovery, leading to significant improvements in the profitability of the farming sector. The holiday consumption supported this price increase, and leading companies optimized their sales structures to achieve better product premiums [1][8]. - The report highlights that the breeding costs for leading yellow chicken enterprises have decreased to low levels, and with the seasonal price recovery, there is potential for substantial profit release [1][8]. - The supply of chicken chicks is currently abundant, with a slight price increase observed. The average price of chicken chicks in April was 2.87 yuan per chick, down 13% year-on-year but up 2.1% month-on-month [9][10]. Summary by Sections White Feather Chicken - The average price of white feather chicken in April was 7.42 yuan per kilogram, a year-on-year decrease of 5.4% but a month-on-month increase of 4.1%. The average price of chicken products was 8913 yuan per ton, down 7% year-on-year and 0.9% month-on-month [8][9]. - The profitability of the breeding sector is gradually improving, with leading companies like Shengnong Development achieving better sales prices compared to the industry average [8][10]. - The demand for quality parent stock chicken chicks is expected to remain strong in 2025, with supply tightening in the second half of the year due to decreased overseas imports [10][32]. Yellow Feather Chicken - The average price for fast-growing yellow feather chickens in April was 4.84 yuan per jin, down 6.3% year-on-year and 1.3% month-on-month, while the price for slow-growing chickens was 8.17 yuan per jin, down 1.4% year-on-year but up 16% month-on-month [21][24]. - The report indicates a divergence in price trends between fast and slow-growing chickens, suggesting improved household consumption driven by holiday demand [21][25]. - The breeding costs for yellow feather chickens have decreased significantly, with costs for leading companies like Wens and Lihua dropping to around 5.6 yuan and 5.5 yuan per jin, respectively [25][32]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the white chicken breeding sector due to its favorable outlook, particularly for integrated leading companies like Shengnong Development [32]. - For yellow feather chickens, the report suggests that the current low levels of parent stock will support future price increases, with companies like Lihua Co., Ltd. and Dekang Agriculture being highlighted as key investment opportunities [32][33].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" investment rating for the company [3]. Core Views - The company is a leading player in the domestic ophthalmic medical device industry, focusing on innovation, particularly in intraocular lenses and orthokeratology lenses. The business is expected to gradually recover from the impact of centralized procurement, with the launch of the dual-focus intraocular lens contributing to revenue growth [1][6]. - The company has received special approval from the National Medical Products Administration for its refractive intraocular lens, which is anticipated to facilitate domestic substitution and enhance performance [1][6]. - Revenue projections for the company are optimistic, with expected revenues of 1.734 billion yuan in 2025, representing a 23% year-on-year growth, and net profit expected to reach 465 million yuan, also reflecting a 20% increase [2][6]. Financial Data and Valuation - The company’s total revenue is projected to grow from 951 million yuan in 2023 to 2.56 billion yuan in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 64%, 48%, 23%, 22%, and 21% respectively [2][8]. - Operating profit is expected to increase from 327 million yuan in 2023 to 750 million yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 26%, 32%, 20%, 21%, and 19% [2][8]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to rise from 1.57 yuan in 2023 to 3.49 yuan in 2027, with a corresponding decrease in the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio from 49.5 to 22.3 over the same period [2][8]. Market Performance - The current stock price is 77.91 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 15 billion yuan [3]. - The company has experienced a decline in stock performance, with absolute performance down by 25% over the past month and six months, and down 11% over the past year [5]. Shareholder Information - The major shareholder is Xie Jiangbing, holding a 12.68% stake in the company [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the banking sector, indicating a recommendation for investment based on the favorable macroeconomic indicators and the expected performance of the sector relative to the market index [4][39]. Core Insights - The central bank has significantly increased its support for the capital market, with a record monthly increase of 370 billion yuan in April, the highest since 2007, indicating strong backing for market stability [1]. - Fiscal strength is robust, with the constructed "Fiscal Strength 2" indicator showing a value of 0.6 trillion yuan in April, a substantial increase from the previous year's negative value, reflecting a proactive fiscal stance [2]. - Credit and M1 growth are weak, with April's credit increase of 0.28 trillion yuan falling short of expectations, and M1 showing a net decrease of approximately 4.35 trillion yuan, suggesting ongoing challenges in the real economy [3]. - M2 and non-bank deposits have seen high growth, with M2 increasing by 1 percentage point and non-bank deposits contributing significantly to this rise, indicating a shift of deposits towards financial markets [3]. Summary by Sections Monetary Policy and Financial Data - The central bank's asset growth in "claims on other financial companies" reached 370 billion yuan in April, marking a significant increase and reflecting strong support for the capital market [1]. - The fiscal strength indicator for April was 0.6 trillion yuan, a notable increase from the previous year's -0.4 trillion yuan, indicating a more aggressive fiscal policy [2]. Credit and Deposit Trends - April's credit growth was only 0.28 trillion yuan, with a decrease in both corporate and household loans, suggesting a potential overextension from the previous quarter [3]. - M1 growth was weak, with a net decrease of about 4.35 trillion yuan, indicating challenges in the circulation of the real economy [3]. - M2 growth rebounded, with a monthly increase of 2.72 trillion yuan, primarily driven by a 1.9 trillion yuan increase in non-bank deposits [3]. Market Outlook and Investment Recommendations - The overall economic environment shows a dichotomy where the capital market is active while the real economy remains sluggish, suggesting a need for policy optimization, particularly in fiscal measures [4]. - The banking sector is expected to benefit from increased fiscal spending directed towards consumption, particularly for families with children and low-income elderly, which could enhance overall economic activity [4]. - The report suggests a balanced investment strategy across state-owned, joint-stock, and regional banks, focusing on those with superior free cash flow valuations [8].

Group 1: Automotive Industry - The automotive production and sales showed steady growth in April, with production reaching 2.619 million units and sales at 2.590 million units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 8.9% for production and 10.8% for sales in the first four months [14][21] - The sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs) in April reached 1.251 million units, with a year-on-year growth of 43.81%, and a rolling three-month growth rate of 44.04% [16][21] - Exports of automobiles, including chassis, amounted to $11.164 billion in April, with a year-on-year increase of 4.36% [18][21] Group 2: Information Technology - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose by 14.38% to 4,931.36 points, while the Taiwan Semiconductor Industry Index increased by 5.40% to 595.25 points [23][24] - The price of DDR4 DRAM memory increased by 11.32% for 8GB modules and 8.48% for 16GB modules, indicating a positive trend in memory pricing [26][27] - The software industry saw a cumulative profit increase of 1-3 months, with a year-on-year growth rate expanding [22][23] Group 3: Midstream Manufacturing - The sales of various excavators and loaders showed an expanding year-on-year growth rate in April, indicating a recovery in the construction machinery sector [3][22] - The price index for photovoltaic products decreased, reflecting challenges in the solar energy market [3][22] Group 4: Consumer Demand - The retail sales of home appliances, including air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines, showed a year-on-year increase, indicating a recovery in consumer spending [3][22] - The average wholesale price index for liquor decreased, while the price index for fresh milk and sugar also declined [3][22] Group 5: Resource Products - The prices of industrial metals showed mixed trends, with aluminum, tin, cobalt, and lead prices rising, while copper, zinc, and nickel prices fell [3][22] - The Brent crude oil price increased by 5.23%, indicating a rise in global oil prices [10][22]

Core Insights - The report indicates that the recent changes in the performance benchmark for public funds may lead to a rebalancing of industry allocations, creating structural opportunities in underweight sectors. However, the short-term impact is expected to be less than market expectations due to the fact that the CSI 300 is not the only benchmark index [1][3][8]. Liquidity and Market Dynamics - The report highlights that the net inflow of funds in the secondary market has shifted from net outflow to net inflow, with a net buy of 115.8 billion yuan in financing funds. Conversely, there was a net outflow of 113.0 billion yuan in ETFs [2][3][34]. - The liquidity indicators show a decrease in public fund issuance to 6.08 billion units, while the financing balance has increased to 1.78727 trillion yuan as of May 9 [2][34]. Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - The People's Bank of China conducted a net withdrawal of 781.7 billion yuan in the open market, with a future expectation of 836.1 billion yuan in reverse repos and 125 billion yuan in MLF maturing [3][22]. - Short-term interest rates have decreased, with the R007 and DR007 down by 25.9 basis points and 25.8 basis points respectively, while the yield on 1-year government bonds has decreased by 4.0 basis points [3][22]. Market Sentiment and Preferences - The report notes an increase in trading activity among financing funds, with a decrease in equity risk premium. The sectors that attracted significant net inflows include electronics, computers, and defense industries, while banks and utilities saw net outflows [3][56]. - The report also indicates that the net inflow for the electronics sector was 44.1 billion yuan, while the banking sector experienced a net outflow of 20.7 billion yuan [57]. Regulatory Developments - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has released a plan to promote the high-quality development of public funds, which emphasizes the role of performance benchmarks in assessing fund managers [3][21]. - The report outlines several regulatory measures aimed at enhancing the efficiency of financial services for small and micro enterprises, indicating a focus on supporting economic recovery [21].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive investment outlook for the semiconductor industry, particularly focusing on segments like storage, SoC, and materials, driven by a marginal recovery in the economic cycle and accelerated innovation [15]. Core Insights - The semiconductor industry has shown a quick revenue growth in Q1 2025, particularly in segments like SoC and equipment, benefiting from policies and increased demand from downstream clients [1][2]. - The report highlights the importance of domestic AI ecosystem development and the trend of domestic substitution in various segments, including foundry, equipment, and components [1][15]. - The semiconductor index in April outperformed both the Taiwan semiconductor index and the Philadelphia semiconductor index, indicating a strong market performance [1]. Demand Side Summary - The consumer electronics sector is witnessing a recovery, with global smartphone shipments increasing by 1.5% year-on-year in Q1 2025, and a notable growth in AI applications in local devices [1][7]. - The PC market saw a 4.9% year-on-year increase in shipments, although challenges are anticipated for the full year [1][7]. - Wearable devices, particularly AI glasses, experienced a significant growth of 216% year-on-year in shipments [1][7]. - The automotive sector is also showing positive trends, with domestic passenger car sales increasing [1][7]. Supply Side Summary - TSMC is increasing its capital expenditure for advanced process lines in the U.S., while memory manufacturers are focusing on high-end storage like HBM [2][11]. - The report notes that TSMC's capital expenditure guidance remains at $38-42 billion for 2025, with additional investments planned for advanced fabs [2][11]. - The supply of DDR4 memory is tightening, leading to price increases, while the prices of analog chips remain stable [3][7]. Price Trends Summary - DDR4 prices have shown significant increases due to reduced supply from manufacturers and recovering demand, with April prices rising by 11.2% for 16GB modules and 7.4% for 8GB modules [3][7]. - Overall semiconductor sales in March 2025 reached $55.9 billion, marking an 18.8% year-on-year increase [7]. Industry Chain Tracking Summary - The report indicates a marginal improvement in various segments of the semiconductor industry, with a focus on companies that are expected to perform well in Q1 2025 and Q2 2025 [1][15]. - The design and IDM sectors are benefiting from the recovery in consumer demand, particularly in AI-related chips [1][15]. - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic substitution and the recovery of the storage segment, particularly in HBM and niche storage markets [1][15]. Investment Recommendations Summary - The report recommends focusing on segments experiencing marginal recovery and innovation acceleration, such as storage, SoC, and analog sectors [15]. - Specific companies to watch include domestic semiconductor equipment manufacturers like Northern Huachuang and Zhongwei Company, as well as storage chip manufacturers like Zhaoyi Innovation and Puran Shares [15][16].