证券研究报告 | 行业定期报告 2025 年 05 月 15 日 龙头轻装上阵，景气改善可期 乳制品 24 年及 25 年一季报回顾 消费品/食品饮料 相关报告 1、《业绩磨底产业出清，第二阶段 具备配置价值—白酒行业 24 年年报 25 年一季报回顾》2025-05-12 2、《食品饮料行业周报（5.11）— 成长赛道仍具看点，关注股东大会催 化》2025-05-12 24 年行业需求承压，伊利蒙牛等龙头企业去库存梳理渠道，同时一次性计提商 誉减值，理清包袱轻装上阵。奶价下行板块毛利率有所提升，同时费用更加高 效投入，25Q1 企业盈利呈现改善态势。全年来看，行业供给侧上游牧场加速 去化，需求端政策预期增强，今年有望实现供需平衡的进一步改善，景气度提 升，板块龙头业绩改善确定性更强。 推荐（维持） 行业规模 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 143 | 2.8 | | 食品饮料 (%) | | 沪深300 | | 总市值（十亿元） 30 | 5149.7 | 6.0 | | 流通市值（十亿 20 | 4901.8 | 6.2 | 行业指数 0 % 1m ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [1][7]. Core Insights - The company's revenue for Q1 2025 reached 5.57 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 57%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 0.665 billion yuan, up 138% year-on-year, primarily due to the consolidation of COFCO Packaging [1][6]. - The report indicates that the acquisition of COFCO Packaging is expected to enhance revenue and net profit, with a stable profit margin and potential for improved profitability in the two-piece can segment [1][7]. - The report forecasts net profits for 2025-2027 to be 1.24 billion yuan, 1.28 billion yuan, and 1.49 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 56%, 4%, and 16% respectively [7]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 13.67 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 1.2% year-on-year, with a net profit of 0.791 billion yuan, an increase of 2.1% year-on-year [6][10]. - The gross margin for 2024 was 16.3%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 5.7%, up 0.3 percentage points year-on-year [6][11]. - The company’s total assets are projected to reach 28.37 billion yuan by 2025, with a total liability of 17.93 billion yuan, indicating a healthy balance sheet [9][10]. Business Segmentation - The metal packaging segment generated revenue of 12.12 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 0.7%, with a gross margin of 18.13% [6][7]. - Domestic revenue for 2024 was 12.49 billion yuan, down 1.2% year-on-year, while overseas sales were 1.18 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.4% year-on-year [6][7]. Operational Efficiency - The company’s inventory turnover days improved from 52 days in 2024 to 42 days in Q1 2025, indicating better inventory management [6][7]. - The cash flow from operating activities was negative in Q1 2025 at -0.4 billion yuan, primarily due to acquisition-related expenditures [6][7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the poultry farming industry is "Strongly Recommended" for key companies such as Shengnong Development, Wens Foodstuffs, and Lihua Co., Ltd. [2][32] Core Insights - In April 2025, chicken prices for both yellow feather and white feather chickens showed signs of recovery, leading to significant improvements in the profitability of the farming sector. The holiday consumption supported this price increase, and leading companies optimized their sales structures to achieve better product premiums [1][8]. - The report highlights that the breeding costs for leading yellow chicken enterprises have decreased to low levels, and with the seasonal price recovery, there is potential for substantial profit release [1][8]. - The supply of chicken chicks is currently abundant, with a slight price increase observed. The average price of chicken chicks in April was 2.87 yuan per chick, down 13% year-on-year but up 2.1% month-on-month [9][10]. Summary by Sections White Feather Chicken - The average price of white feather chicken in April was 7.42 yuan per kilogram, a year-on-year decrease of 5.4% but a month-on-month increase of 4.1%. The average price of chicken products was 8913 yuan per ton, down 7% year-on-year and 0.9% month-on-month [8][9]. - The profitability of the breeding sector is gradually improving, with leading companies like Shengnong Development achieving better sales prices compared to the industry average [8][10]. - The demand for quality parent stock chicken chicks is expected to remain strong in 2025, with supply tightening in the second half of the year due to decreased overseas imports [10][32]. Yellow Feather Chicken - The average price for fast-growing yellow feather chickens in April was 4.84 yuan per jin, down 6.3% year-on-year and 1.3% month-on-month, while the price for slow-growing chickens was 8.17 yuan per jin, down 1.4% year-on-year but up 16% month-on-month [21][24]. - The report indicates a divergence in price trends between fast and slow-growing chickens, suggesting improved household consumption driven by holiday demand [21][25]. - The breeding costs for yellow feather chickens have decreased significantly, with costs for leading companies like Wens and Lihua dropping to around 5.6 yuan and 5.5 yuan per jin, respectively [25][32]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the white chicken breeding sector due to its favorable outlook, particularly for integrated leading companies like Shengnong Development [32]. - For yellow feather chickens, the report suggests that the current low levels of parent stock will support future price increases, with companies like Lihua Co., Ltd. and Dekang Agriculture being highlighted as key investment opportunities [32][33].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" investment rating for the company [3]. Core Views - The company is a leading player in the domestic ophthalmic medical device industry, focusing on innovation, particularly in intraocular lenses and orthokeratology lenses. The business is expected to gradually recover from the impact of centralized procurement, with the launch of the dual-focus intraocular lens contributing to revenue growth [1][6]. - The company has received special approval from the National Medical Products Administration for its refractive intraocular lens, which is anticipated to facilitate domestic substitution and enhance performance [1][6]. - Revenue projections for the company are optimistic, with expected revenues of 1.734 billion yuan in 2025, representing a 23% year-on-year growth, and net profit expected to reach 465 million yuan, also reflecting a 20% increase [2][6]. Financial Data and Valuation - The company’s total revenue is projected to grow from 951 million yuan in 2023 to 2.56 billion yuan in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 64%, 48%, 23%, 22%, and 21% respectively [2][8]. - Operating profit is expected to increase from 327 million yuan in 2023 to 750 million yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 26%, 32%, 20%, 21%, and 19% [2][8]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to rise from 1.57 yuan in 2023 to 3.49 yuan in 2027, with a corresponding decrease in the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio from 49.5 to 22.3 over the same period [2][8]. Market Performance - The current stock price is 77.91 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 15 billion yuan [3]. - The company has experienced a decline in stock performance, with absolute performance down by 25% over the past month and six months, and down 11% over the past year [5]. Shareholder Information - The major shareholder is Xie Jiangbing, holding a 12.68% stake in the company [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the banking sector, indicating a recommendation for investment based on the favorable macroeconomic indicators and the expected performance of the sector relative to the market index [4][39]. Core Insights - The central bank has significantly increased its support for the capital market, with a record monthly increase of 370 billion yuan in April, the highest since 2007, indicating strong backing for market stability [1]. - Fiscal strength is robust, with the constructed "Fiscal Strength 2" indicator showing a value of 0.6 trillion yuan in April, a substantial increase from the previous year's negative value, reflecting a proactive fiscal stance [2]. - Credit and M1 growth are weak, with April's credit increase of 0.28 trillion yuan falling short of expectations, and M1 showing a net decrease of approximately 4.35 trillion yuan, suggesting ongoing challenges in the real economy [3]. - M2 and non-bank deposits have seen high growth, with M2 increasing by 1 percentage point and non-bank deposits contributing significantly to this rise, indicating a shift of deposits towards financial markets [3]. Summary by Sections Monetary Policy and Financial Data - The central bank's asset growth in "claims on other financial companies" reached 370 billion yuan in April, marking a significant increase and reflecting strong support for the capital market [1]. - The fiscal strength indicator for April was 0.6 trillion yuan, a notable increase from the previous year's -0.4 trillion yuan, indicating a more aggressive fiscal policy [2]. Credit and Deposit Trends - April's credit growth was only 0.28 trillion yuan, with a decrease in both corporate and household loans, suggesting a potential overextension from the previous quarter [3]. - M1 growth was weak, with a net decrease of about 4.35 trillion yuan, indicating challenges in the circulation of the real economy [3]. - M2 growth rebounded, with a monthly increase of 2.72 trillion yuan, primarily driven by a 1.9 trillion yuan increase in non-bank deposits [3]. Market Outlook and Investment Recommendations - The overall economic environment shows a dichotomy where the capital market is active while the real economy remains sluggish, suggesting a need for policy optimization, particularly in fiscal measures [4]. - The banking sector is expected to benefit from increased fiscal spending directed towards consumption, particularly for families with children and low-income elderly, which could enhance overall economic activity [4]. - The report suggests a balanced investment strategy across state-owned, joint-stock, and regional banks, focusing on those with superior free cash flow valuations [8].

Group 1: Automotive Industry - The automotive production and sales showed steady growth in April, with production reaching 2.619 million units and sales at 2.590 million units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 8.9% for production and 10.8% for sales in the first four months [14][21] - The sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs) in April reached 1.251 million units, with a year-on-year growth of 43.81%, and a rolling three-month growth rate of 44.04% [16][21] - Exports of automobiles, including chassis, amounted to $11.164 billion in April, with a year-on-year increase of 4.36% [18][21] Group 2: Information Technology - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose by 14.38% to 4,931.36 points, while the Taiwan Semiconductor Industry Index increased by 5.40% to 595.25 points [23][24] - The price of DDR4 DRAM memory increased by 11.32% for 8GB modules and 8.48% for 16GB modules, indicating a positive trend in memory pricing [26][27] - The software industry saw a cumulative profit increase of 1-3 months, with a year-on-year growth rate expanding [22][23] Group 3: Midstream Manufacturing - The sales of various excavators and loaders showed an expanding year-on-year growth rate in April, indicating a recovery in the construction machinery sector [3][22] - The price index for photovoltaic products decreased, reflecting challenges in the solar energy market [3][22] Group 4: Consumer Demand - The retail sales of home appliances, including air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines, showed a year-on-year increase, indicating a recovery in consumer spending [3][22] - The average wholesale price index for liquor decreased, while the price index for fresh milk and sugar also declined [3][22] Group 5: Resource Products - The prices of industrial metals showed mixed trends, with aluminum, tin, cobalt, and lead prices rising, while copper, zinc, and nickel prices fell [3][22] - The Brent crude oil price increased by 5.23%, indicating a rise in global oil prices [10][22]

Core Insights - The report indicates that the recent changes in the performance benchmark for public funds may lead to a rebalancing of industry allocations, creating structural opportunities in underweight sectors. However, the short-term impact is expected to be less than market expectations due to the fact that the CSI 300 is not the only benchmark index [1][3][8]. Liquidity and Market Dynamics - The report highlights that the net inflow of funds in the secondary market has shifted from net outflow to net inflow, with a net buy of 115.8 billion yuan in financing funds. Conversely, there was a net outflow of 113.0 billion yuan in ETFs [2][3][34]. - The liquidity indicators show a decrease in public fund issuance to 6.08 billion units, while the financing balance has increased to 1.78727 trillion yuan as of May 9 [2][34]. Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - The People's Bank of China conducted a net withdrawal of 781.7 billion yuan in the open market, with a future expectation of 836.1 billion yuan in reverse repos and 125 billion yuan in MLF maturing [3][22]. - Short-term interest rates have decreased, with the R007 and DR007 down by 25.9 basis points and 25.8 basis points respectively, while the yield on 1-year government bonds has decreased by 4.0 basis points [3][22]. Market Sentiment and Preferences - The report notes an increase in trading activity among financing funds, with a decrease in equity risk premium. The sectors that attracted significant net inflows include electronics, computers, and defense industries, while banks and utilities saw net outflows [3][56]. - The report also indicates that the net inflow for the electronics sector was 44.1 billion yuan, while the banking sector experienced a net outflow of 20.7 billion yuan [57]. Regulatory Developments - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has released a plan to promote the high-quality development of public funds, which emphasizes the role of performance benchmarks in assessing fund managers [3][21]. - The report outlines several regulatory measures aimed at enhancing the efficiency of financial services for small and micro enterprises, indicating a focus on supporting economic recovery [21].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive investment outlook for the semiconductor industry, particularly focusing on segments like storage, SoC, and materials, driven by a marginal recovery in the economic cycle and accelerated innovation [15]. Core Insights - The semiconductor industry has shown a quick revenue growth in Q1 2025, particularly in segments like SoC and equipment, benefiting from policies and increased demand from downstream clients [1][2]. - The report highlights the importance of domestic AI ecosystem development and the trend of domestic substitution in various segments, including foundry, equipment, and components [1][15]. - The semiconductor index in April outperformed both the Taiwan semiconductor index and the Philadelphia semiconductor index, indicating a strong market performance [1]. Demand Side Summary - The consumer electronics sector is witnessing a recovery, with global smartphone shipments increasing by 1.5% year-on-year in Q1 2025, and a notable growth in AI applications in local devices [1][7]. - The PC market saw a 4.9% year-on-year increase in shipments, although challenges are anticipated for the full year [1][7]. - Wearable devices, particularly AI glasses, experienced a significant growth of 216% year-on-year in shipments [1][7]. - The automotive sector is also showing positive trends, with domestic passenger car sales increasing [1][7]. Supply Side Summary - TSMC is increasing its capital expenditure for advanced process lines in the U.S., while memory manufacturers are focusing on high-end storage like HBM [2][11]. - The report notes that TSMC's capital expenditure guidance remains at $38-42 billion for 2025, with additional investments planned for advanced fabs [2][11]. - The supply of DDR4 memory is tightening, leading to price increases, while the prices of analog chips remain stable [3][7]. Price Trends Summary - DDR4 prices have shown significant increases due to reduced supply from manufacturers and recovering demand, with April prices rising by 11.2% for 16GB modules and 7.4% for 8GB modules [3][7]. - Overall semiconductor sales in March 2025 reached $55.9 billion, marking an 18.8% year-on-year increase [7]. Industry Chain Tracking Summary - The report indicates a marginal improvement in various segments of the semiconductor industry, with a focus on companies that are expected to perform well in Q1 2025 and Q2 2025 [1][15]. - The design and IDM sectors are benefiting from the recovery in consumer demand, particularly in AI-related chips [1][15]. - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic substitution and the recovery of the storage segment, particularly in HBM and niche storage markets [1][15]. Investment Recommendations Summary - The report recommends focusing on segments experiencing marginal recovery and innovation acceleration, such as storage, SoC, and analog sectors [15]. - Specific companies to watch include domestic semiconductor equipment manufacturers like Northern Huachuang and Zhongwei Company, as well as storage chip manufacturers like Zhaoyi Innovation and Puran Shares [15][16].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for JD Group with a target price of HKD 173 per share [4][6]. Core Insights - JD Group's Q1 2025 performance exceeded expectations, with total revenue reaching CNY 301.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 15.8%, driven by strong growth in retail and user acquisition [2][6]. - The retail revenue was CNY 263.8 billion, up 16.3% year-on-year, with a notable increase in operating profit and non-GAAP net profit [2][6]. - The report highlights the rapid development of JD's food delivery business, which is expected to synergize with its core e-commerce operations in the long term [2][6]. Financial Performance - For the fiscal year 2023, JD Group's main revenue is projected at CNY 1,084.66 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 4% [4][10]. - Non-GAAP net profit for 2023 is estimated at CNY 35.2 billion, reflecting a 25% increase [4][10]. - The report anticipates a steady increase in revenue and profit, with projections for 2025 showing a revenue of CNY 1,309.18 billion and a non-GAAP net profit of CNY 46.576 billion [4][10]. User Growth and Market Position - JD Group experienced over 20% growth in active users during Q1 2025, attributed to improved user experience and the expansion of new business lines like JD Joy and food delivery [2][6]. - The report notes that the platform service revenue grew by 15.7% year-on-year, indicating a robust ecosystem development [2][6]. Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was reported at 15.9%, with an operating profit margin of 3.5%, both showing improvements compared to market expectations [2][6]. - The report projects that JD's retail operating profit will achieve double-digit growth year-on-year for 2025 [2][6]. Future Outlook - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the progress of JD's food delivery business and its long-term integration with the e-commerce sector [2][6]. - The anticipated financial performance for 2025-2027 includes non-GAAP net profits of CNY 46.6 billion, CNY 52.2 billion, and CNY 56.8 billion respectively, reflecting a solid growth trajectory [4][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [2][6]. Core Views - The company is expected to see upward trends in Q2 driven by strong order demand, structural optimization, and price increases in line with industry trends [6]. - The company’s S8/S9 materials are gaining market share among overseas clients, enhancing the revenue contribution from high-speed materials [6]. - The outlook for the next few years is positive, with expectations of continued growth driven by AI computing needs and high-end material demand [6]. Summary by Sections Current Stock Price and Market Data - Current stock price is 26.2 CNY - Total shares outstanding: 2,429 million - Total market capitalization: 63.6 billion CNY - Circulating market capitalization: 62.1 billion CNY - Net asset value per share: 6.4 CNY - Return on equity (ROE): 12.2% - Debt-to-asset ratio: 39.2% [2]. Financial Performance and Projections - Revenue projections for 2025 are set at 250.6 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 23% - Net profit for 2025 is projected to be 27.0 billion CNY, also reflecting a 55% increase from the previous year - The company’s PE ratios are forecasted to be 23.6, 18.3, and 15.0 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [7][10]. Market Trends and Competitive Position - The report highlights that the demand for high-speed CCL (Copper Clad Laminate) is expected to remain strong due to AI computing infrastructure developments - The company is positioned to benefit from a tight supply-demand balance in high-end CCL, with expectations of increased market share among key clients [6]. - The company’s ability to manage supply chain challenges, particularly in raw materials like glass cloth, is noted as a competitive advantage [6].