证券研究报告 | 宏观专题研究 | 中国宏观 2）企业端，3 月企（事）业单位贷款增加 28400 亿元，同比多增 5000 亿元，其 中，短期贷款增加 14400 亿元，同比多增 4600 亿元，是核心支撑项，中长期贷 款增加 15800 亿元，同比少增 200 亿元，降幅显著收窄，票据融资减少 1986 亿 元，同比少减 514 亿元。 对于后续货币政策，二季度财政支出节奏加快，预计存在降准落地的"窗口期"。此 外若中美博弈升级，央行或将首要目标从国际收支与金融稳定切换至稳增长和促进物 价合理回升，届时有望通过降准降息对冲外部冲击，维持流动性宽松以支持内需。全 年看，预计 2025 年货币政策维持宽松基调，与财政政策、产业政策形成政策合力， 预计全年降准幅度约 100BP，降息约 30BP。 ❑ 3 月信贷新增 3.64 万亿元，企业贷款是核心拉动 3 月人民币贷款新增 36400 亿元（高于市场预期和我们的预期），同比多增 5500 亿元，存量同比增速 7.4%，前值 7.3%。信贷结构中，居民、企业、非银贷款均 同比多增，其中企业贷款是核心拉动项。 短期贷款方面，3 月企业短期贷款同比多增，增幅为 2 ...

重要推荐 重要观点 精品报告 2025 年 04 月 14 日 ：张延兵 执业证书编号：S1230511010020 ：021-80106048 ：zhangyanbing@stocke.com.cn 证券研究报告 | 浙商早知道 报告日期：2025 年 04 月 14 日 浙商早知道 【浙商中小盘 钟凯锋/宋伟/史凡可】民士达（833394）公司点评：一季度开门红，进口替代迎来机遇期——20250412 1 重要推荐 1.1 【浙商传媒互联网 冯翠婷/陈磊】英派斯（002899）公司深度：进军 AI 眼镜行业，应用场景优 势明显——20250410 1、传媒互联网-英派斯（002899） http://www.stocke.com.cn 1/6 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 【浙商传媒互联网 冯翠婷/陈磊】英派斯（002899）公司深度：进军 AI 眼镜行业，应用场景优势明显——20250410 【浙商汽车 刘巍】凌云股份（600480）公司深度：多细分赛道龙头主业稳健向上，布局传感器广阔赛道——20250410 【浙商医药 孙建/郭双喜/盖文化】科伦博泰生物-B（06990）公司深度：国际化 ADC ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Insights - The company's ICT business revenue has significantly increased, with a total revenue of 79.49 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 27.64% [8] - The company has successfully delivered major projects in the rail transit sector, including Guangzhou Metro Line 11 and Shenzhen Metro Line 13, and has signed new orders in over ten cities [1] - The AI model technology has advanced, with the "Zhixing Traffic Model" reaching version 2.0, enhancing traffic management and operational efficiency [3] - Operating cash flow has improved significantly, with a net cash flow from operating activities of 180 million yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 117.57% [4] - The company expects continued revenue growth in 2025, driven by new orders in the intelligent transportation business and a contract asset balance of 2.012 billion yuan [2] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of -115 million yuan, but the adjusted net profit (excluding non-recurring items) was 24 million yuan, indicating a turnaround [8][9] - The gross profit margin for industry solutions improved to 19.6%, and overall operating expenses decreased by 1.87% year-on-year [4] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 88.96 billion, 95.36 billion, and 102.77 billion yuan, with net profits expected to be 1.35 billion, 1.85 billion, and 2.5 billion yuan respectively [9]

证券研究报告 钢铁周报：宏观上美国关税扰动，但产业层面继续去库 行业评级：看好 2025 年 04 月 13 日 | 分析师 | 沈皓俊 | 研究助理 | 张轩 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 邮箱 | shenhaojun@stocke.com.cn | 邮箱 | zhangxuan01@stocke.com.cn | | 证书编号 | S1230523080011 | | | 1 | 【浙商金属】钢铁周度数据（2025年4月13日） | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 价 | 格 | 周涨跌幅 | 年初至今涨跌幅 | 上证指数 | 3,238 | -3.1% | -3.4% | | | | 沪深300 | 3,751 | -2.9% | -4.7% | 板 | SW钢铁指数 | 2,109 | -6.3% | 0.3% | | | SW普钢指数 | 块 | 2,122 | -5.9% | 1.7% | SW特钢指数 | 3,761 | -7.4% ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Accumulate" [5] Core Views - The company demonstrated resilience in a weak economic environment, with a significant increase in dividend payout [4] - In 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 26.9 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.5%, and a net profit of 6.34 billion yuan, up 12.8% year-on-year [1][5] - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with projected revenues of 29.38 billion yuan, 31.93 billion yuan, and 34.34 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting growth rates of 9.2%, 8.7%, and 7.6% [5] Revenue Breakdown - In 2024, revenue from soy sauce, seasoning sauce, oyster sauce, and other products was 13.76 billion yuan, 2.67 billion yuan, 4.62 billion yuan, and 4.09 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 8.9%, 10.0%, 8.6%, and 16.8% [2] - Online sales grew significantly, with a year-on-year increase of 39.8% in 2024, while offline sales increased by 8.9% [2] - Revenue from different regions showed varied growth, with the southern region achieving a 12.9% increase year-on-year [2] Profitability and Margins - The gross margin improved to 37.0% in 2024, an increase of 2.3 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin reached 23.6%, up 0.7 percentage points [4] - The company has increased its dividend payout ratio to 75% in 2024, reflecting a 10 percentage point increase year-on-year [4] Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for the company's earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 1.25 yuan in 2025, 1.38 yuan in 2026, and 1.51 yuan in 2027 [5] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 36.85 in 2024 to 27.89 by 2027, indicating an improving valuation over time [5]

证券研究报告 | 宏观深度报告 | 中国宏观 经济周周看：经济景气度连续两周回落 ——宏观经济周度高频前瞻报告 核心观点 基于前期报告《经济周周看：整体向上，生产偏强，需求涨跌互现——宏观经济周度 高频前瞻报告》中构建的生产端景气周度跟踪框架，我们进一步编制 GDP 周度高频 景气指数，更好地综合把握经济景气强度及变化方向。 从我们构建的 GDP 周度高频景气指数历史回溯来看，GDP 周度高频景气指数在趋势、 节奏上与月度 GDP 的趋势节奏有较好的拟合度，例如 2024 年二季度的回落、三季度 筑底与四季度的大幅改善得到较好拟合，在拐点上有较好提示。未来随着高频数据质 量的进一步完善，有望更好地拟合周度 GDP，使其在弹性强度上更为准确。由于模型 使用数据的更新频率不同，随着模型数据持续更新，数据质量提升，对前两周 GDP 测 算进行相应修订。 GDP 周度高频景气指数本周（截至 4 月 12 日）为 5.6%，较上周修订值 5.7%略有放 缓，或表征一季度经济开门红脉冲后，经济增长景气有所回摆。我们认为，随着美国 加征关税的冲击，GDP 周频景气指数或有所承压，有待持续跟踪验证。 从生产法来看，服务业、工 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Insights - The company demonstrated resilience in operations with steady profit growth and improved operating cash flow. The total revenue for the year was 2.146 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 12.08%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 204 million, an increase of 4.88%. The operating cash flow reached 264 million, a significant year-on-year increase of 419.77% [1][12] Business Performance - The smart procurement business segment generated revenue of 948 million, down 7.17% year-on-year, while the procurement operation business achieved revenue of 388 million, up 6.33% year-on-year. The overall gross margin remained stable at 61.20% [1] - The company secured multiple large projects, including the procurement bidding platform for Dongfeng Motor Corporation and the electronic procurement platform upgrade for China Energy Conservation and Environmental Protection Group, reinforcing its leading position in the industry [2] - The company is actively integrating AI technology into its operations, launching the "Trading Brain" project, which is the first AI model innovation in the public resource trading sector [2][3] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 2.291 billion, 2.520 billion, and 2.804 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 237 million, 281 million, and 348 million. The expected EPS for these years is 0.72, 0.85, and 1.05, with a PE ratio of 42.33 for 2025 [10][12]

Core Insights - The report highlights that China's economic resilience has improved compared to the previous trade friction, suggesting that internal stability may be the best countermeasure against external pressures [1] - It anticipates that policies aimed at stabilizing growth will likely be intensified, with a focus on expanding consumption and monetary easing [1][3] - The report recommends focusing on three main lines: self-sufficiency and industrial trends (semiconductors, AI, rare earths, military industry), boosting domestic demand and growth transformation (new consumption, service consumption, fertility), and defensive attributes with stable dividends [1] Group 1: Expanding Domestic Consumption - The report emphasizes that expanding domestic consumption is a priority, especially in light of increased tariffs from the U.S. which may significantly impact exports [2][21] - It suggests that existing policies supporting new consumption may see increased intensity, including broader subsidy ratios and product support ranges [2] - The service consumption sector, which constitutes a significant portion of overall consumer spending, could benefit from subsidies if extended beyond goods to services, positively impacting sectors like tourism and hospitality [26] Group 2: Monetary Policy and Structural Tools - There is an expectation of rising monetary easing, with potential for both reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions to support economic growth [3][38] - The report notes that structural policy tools related to consumption and exports are likely to be introduced, which could further stimulate economic activity [3] - Historical data indicates that monetary easing typically benefits small-cap growth stocks, suggesting a potential shift in investment focus towards these sectors [39] Group 3: Fiscal Policy and Real Estate - The report anticipates a faster pace of fiscal spending, with potential expansions in areas such as consumption, employment, and foreign trade [4] - It predicts a new round of real estate policy measures may open up in the second quarter, aimed at sustaining the recovery momentum in the housing market [5] - The report highlights that the necessity to expand domestic demand is greater this year than in previous years, indicating a strategic focus on real estate as a key area for policy intervention [5][14] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors that align with self-sufficiency and industrial trends, particularly in technology and strategic resources such as semiconductors and military industries [6] - It also recommends investing in consumer sectors that can benefit from domestic demand boosts, including electronics, retail, and services related to tourism and hospitality [6] - Additionally, it highlights the importance of defensive assets with stable dividends, such as utilities and consumer staples, which may provide resilience in uncertain market conditions [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 14.63 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 7.1%, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.14 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 1.4% [1] - Despite fluctuations in profit margins due to channel investments, the company demonstrated confidence in its growth by actively opening new stores [1][4] - The children's clothing segment showed strong growth, with a revenue increase of 9.6% year-on-year, highlighting the resilience of the leading brand [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 5.23 billion yuan, up 9.8% year-on-year, and a net profit of 380 million yuan, reflecting a significant increase of 32.1% [1] - The gross margin for 2024 was 43.8%, with a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points, while the sales expense ratio increased by 1.5 percentage points due to proactive marketing and store openings [3] Business Segments - The children's clothing and leisure segments generated revenues of 10.27 billion yuan and 4.19 billion yuan, respectively, with gross margins of 47.3% and 35.5% [2] - The company opened a net of 280 new children's clothing stores and 108 leisure stores, bringing the total to 5,514 and 2,811 stores, respectively [2] Future Outlook - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 15.65 billion yuan, 16.56 billion yuan, and 17.42 billion yuan, with corresponding growth rates of 7.0%, 5.8%, and 5.2% [4] - The company plans to maintain a high dividend payout ratio of 83% in 2024, indicating a commitment to shareholder returns [4]

证券研究报告 | 债券市场专题研究 | 债券研究 债券市场专题研究 报告日期：2025 年 04 月 13 日 增量资金入场，利好稳健类转债 核心观点 我们认为权益市场短期增量资金主要是汇金公司，市场风格倾向于大盘稳健风格，短 期建议投资者关注高等级、基本面稳健的转债，而对于新质生产力相关转债，短期已 经有充分调整，也可逢低买入。 ❑ 风偏回落，继续关注稳健类转债 过去一周（4 月 7 日至 4 月 11 日，下同）转债指数普遍下跌，其中可转债信息 技术、可选消费、公用事业行业指数，AA+转债指数领跌。估值方面，债性、平 衡性、股性转债的估值普遍上升。可转债市场的价格中位数小幅下降到 118.45 元，处在 2017 年以来的 69.74%水平。整体来看，当前转债市场相对此前的高涨 状态逐渐降温。 我们认为当前可转债市场跟随权益出现滞涨状态，一方面在于新质生产力相关板 块短期涨幅过高，市场在年报密集披露前后定价核心重回基本面，而该部分相关 标的普遍短期业绩预期无法落地，市场或有风格切换的可能性；另一方面，基于 2024 年财报，有关国九条新规将要落地实行，市场风格也将更加关注基本面而 非成长预期；此外，评级公 ...