证券研究报告 | 公司点评 | 中药Ⅱ 华润三九(000999) 报告日期：2025 年 03 月 14 日 内生业务增长亮眼，天士力并购在即 ——华润三九 2024 年年报点评 投资要点 ❑ 风险提示：政策调整风险、成本波动风险、并购整合风险 | 财务摘要 | | --- | | [Table_Forcast] (百万元) | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 27,617 | 30,758 | 34,654 | 39,023 | | (+/-) (%) | 11.63% | 11.37% | 12.67% | 12.61% | | 归母净利润 | 3,368 | 3,837 | 4,425 | 5,071 | | (+/-) (%) | 18.05% | 13.94% | 15.31% | 14.60% | | 每股收益(元) | 2.62 | 2.99 | 3.45 | 3.95 | | P/E | 15.98 | 14.02 | 12.16 | 10.61 | | 资料来源：浙商证券研究所 | ...

投资要点 业绩前瞻 2025Q1，预计主要上市险企 NBV 平稳增长，同比增速平均为 11.8%，产险综合 成本率（COR）优化可观，净利润延续景气，同比增速平均为 17.8%。 驱动因素 （1）寿险 NBV：2025Q1，预计 NBV 保持平稳增长，归因：①个险渠道：随着 队伍高质量转型的纵深推进，预计代理人队伍规模降幅收窄，且队伍人均产能延 续提升，个险渠道起到稳定压舱石作用。②银保渠道："报行合一"政策实施 后，2024 年银保渠道新业务价值率显著提升，今年预计在产品结构优化驱动 下，新业务价值率仍将稳步提升；受益于客户防御性的理财需求持续旺盛，以及 银行存款利率下调，以增额终身寿险及养老年金险为代表的储蓄险在银保渠道继 续畅销，预计银保渠道的 NBV 贡献进一步加大。预计 2025Q1 各家 NBV 平稳增 长，具体为新华保险（13.7%）＞中国太保（12.4%）＞中国平安（11.9%）＞中 国人寿（9.1%）。 证券研究报告 | 季度行业策略报告 | 保险Ⅱ （2）产险 COR：中国财险 2025Q1 的 COR 预计同比显著优化 1.5pt，至 96.4%，归因：①今年一季度，冰雪、冻雨等大型自然 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for China People's Insurance Company (601319) for the first time [6]. Core Views - China People's Insurance Company is a leading player in the property insurance sector, with a strong focus on both property and life insurance, showing promising transformation results in its life insurance segment [4][14]. - The company has demonstrated stable growth in investment management, with a compound annual growth rate of 8.6% in total investment assets from 2015 to 2023 [3]. - The forecast for revenue growth is 14% in 2024, followed by 6% and 8% in 2025 and 2026, respectively, with a significant expected increase in net profit in 2024 [4]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - China People's Insurance Company has a long-standing history and is recognized as a pioneer in the insurance industry, with a comprehensive business model covering property, life, and health insurance [14][15]. - The company has maintained a dominant position in the property insurance market, with property insurance accounting for over 70% of its revenue [15][16]. Property Insurance - The company leads the market with a property insurance premium market share of 31.8% as of the end of 2024, significantly ahead of its competitors [18]. - The combined operating ratio (COR) for auto insurance is 96.4% in 2024H1, indicating strong underwriting profitability [39]. - Non-auto insurance premiums are expected to be a major growth driver, with a projected share of 44.7% in 2024 [37]. Life Insurance - The new business value (NBV) for life insurance has shown a remarkable recovery, with a year-on-year growth of 69.6% in 2023 and 91% in 2024H1 [2]. - The bank insurance channel has become a significant contributor, accounting for 49.1% of the NBV in 2024H1 [2]. - The health insurance segment has also seen substantial growth, with a 159% increase in NBV in 2024H1 compared to the previous year [2]. Investment Performance - The total investment assets reached 1.53 trillion yuan by the end of 2024H1, with an average net investment return of 5.1% from 2015 to 2024H1, outperforming major competitors [3]. - The company has maintained a stable investment performance with low volatility, contributing positively to its overall profitability [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve a revenue growth of 14% in 2024, with net profit projected to increase by 88% [4]. - The target price is set at 7.88 yuan, corresponding to a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 1.21 times for 2025 [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for China Resources Sanjiu (华润三九) is "Buy" (maintained) [3] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 27.617 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 11.63%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.368 billion yuan, up 18.05% year-on-year [6] - The CHC (Consumer Health Care) business showed rapid growth, with revenue reaching 12.482 billion yuan, a 14.13% increase year-on-year, while the prescription drug business also performed well with a revenue of 6.006 billion yuan, up 15.05% year-on-year [6] - The merger with Tianjin Tasly has received approval from the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, which is expected to enhance the company's core competitiveness in the traditional Chinese medicine sector [6] - The company anticipates double-digit revenue growth in 2025, with net profit expected to match revenue growth levels [6] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2024 to 2027 are as follows: 27.617 billion yuan (2024), 30.758 billion yuan (2025E), 34.654 billion yuan (2026E), and 39.023 billion yuan (2027E), with respective growth rates of 11.63%, 11.37%, 12.67%, and 12.61% [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 3.368 billion yuan (2024), 3.837 billion yuan (2025E), 4.425 billion yuan (2026E), and 5.071 billion yuan (2027E), with growth rates of 18.05%, 13.94%, 15.31%, and 14.60% respectively [2] - Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 2.62 yuan (2024), 2.99 yuan (2025E), 3.45 yuan (2026E), and 3.95 yuan (2027E) [2] Business Performance - The company achieved a gross profit margin of 51.86% in 2024, a slight decrease of 1.38 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to business structure adjustments [6] - The net profit margin for 2024 was 12.20%, an increase of 0.67 percentage points year-on-year, and the weighted average return on equity (ROE) was 17.33%, up 1.47 percentage points year-on-year [6] - The integration of Kunming Pharmaceutical Group is progressing, with its revenue for 2024 reported at 8.401 billion yuan, a slight decline of 0.34% year-on-year, but with a net profit increase of 19.86% [6]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for Junting Hotel [6][14]. Core Views - Junting Hotel differentiates itself in the competitive mid-to-high-end hotel market by adopting a "one store, one product" strategy, which enhances its RevPAR and profitability per store [1][3][13]. - The company is leveraging various expansion strategies, including direct management, franchising, and external funds, to minimize risks and achieve nonlinear growth despite its smaller scale compared to competitors [1][3][13]. - The mid-to-high-end hotel market is experiencing a transformation, with domestic brands poised to emerge as leaders due to changing consumer preferences and the increasing importance of differentiated offerings [2][42]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Junting Hotel Group is a leading operator of mid-to-high-end business and resort hotels in China, focusing on a service system that emphasizes "design selection, cultural selection, and lifestyle selection" [22][24]. - The company has undergone several phases of development, including brand optimization and expansion into high-end resort markets, culminating in its listing on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange [23][24]. Market Dynamics - The mid-to-high-end hotel market is expanding, with a growing demand for differentiated services and experiences, driven by younger consumers willing to pay a premium [2][35]. - The supply-demand mismatch in the hotel market is expected to diminish, with a projected increase in the number of mid-range hotel rooms [36][40]. Growth Strategy - Junting Hotel's growth strategy includes enhancing its direct management stores, launching a franchise model, and utilizing external funds to support expansion [3][4][12]. - The company aims to establish a thousand-store scale within three years through its franchise business, which is set to commence in 2025 [3][4]. Financial Projections - The report forecasts Junting Hotel's revenue to reach 627 million, 790 million, and 1.031 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 17.42%, 26.05%, and 30.42% [4][5]. - The projected net profit for the same period is expected to be 29 million, 65 million, and 144 million yuan, with significant growth anticipated in the latter years [4][5].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is not explicitly stated in the provided documents, but it follows a relative rating system based on performance against the CSI 300 index [6]. Core Viewpoints - The bond market has been experiencing a continuous pullback since February, leading to weakened trading sentiment. Institutions with liquidity needs and sensitivity to net value are advised to adopt a cautious approach and selectively allocate investments [4]. - Market expectations for interest rate cuts have shifted post the Two Sessions, causing potential adjustments in the long-end of the bond market [4]. - The report emphasizes a focus on ultra-long credit bonds and provides a market outlook [4]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - On Thursday, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.4%, with the CSI 300 also down by 0.4%. The ChiNext Index decreased by 1.2%, while the Hang Seng Index dropped by 0.6% [3]. - The best-performing sectors included coal (+4.2%), beauty and personal care (+1.6%), steel (+1.2%), utilities (+0.9%), and oil and petrochemicals (+0.8%). Conversely, the worst-performing sectors were machinery (-2.6%), electronics (-2.4%), computers (-2.1%), automobiles (-1.9%), and media (-1.8%) [2][3]. Important Insights - The report discusses the ultra-long credit bonds market, indicating that the peak is approaching and suggesting a selective allocation strategy [4]. - The market's delayed pricing of interest rate cuts may lead to further adjustments in the long-end of the bond market [4]. - The report highlights the impact of a strong equity market on the bond market, suggesting a need for cautious positioning [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Longsheng Technology is maintained as "Buy" [3] Core Views - Longsheng Technology has made a strategic investment in Weihan Intelligent, which will become a controlling subsidiary, enhancing its capabilities in the robotics sector [7] - The investment aims to leverage Weihan's precision manufacturing technology to accelerate the development of core transmission systems for humanoid robots, creating a closed-loop innovation model [7] - The company plans to integrate government, academic, and overseas resources to build an industrial ecosystem that combines precision manufacturing of automotive parts with robotics technology [7] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for Longsheng Technology are as follows: - 2024: 26.61 billion, YOY growth of 45.6% - 2025: 33.47 billion, YOY growth of 25.8% - 2026: 40.67 billion, YOY growth of 21.5% [7] - Net profit forecasts are: - 2024: 2.38 billion, YOY growth of 61.9% - 2025: 3.15 billion, YOY growth of 32.6% - 2026: 3.98 billion, YOY growth of 26.2% [7] - Earnings per share (EPS) estimates are: - 2024: 1.03 yuan - 2025: 1.36 yuan - 2026: 1.72 yuan [7] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are projected to be: - 2024: 36.92 - 2025: 27.85 - 2026: 22.07 [7] Strategic Developments - The investment in Weihan Intelligent is based on its expertise in precision harmonic reducers and integrated joint actuators, which aligns with Longsheng's strategy to enhance its robotics capabilities [7] - The company aims to create a dual empowerment model that meets the needs of mainstream automotive manufacturers in smart manufacturing and robotics development [7]

证券研究报告 | 行业专题 | 农林牧渔 大豆库销比再下调，国内玉米库存收紧 ——3 月 USDA 供需报告分析 投资要点 ❑ 海外库存相对宽松，中国库存显著下调 本月 USDA 供需报告中，对 2024/25 年度全球（除中国外）玉米的预计产量上调 了 170 万吨，至 9.19 亿吨，同比上一年度减少 2.1%。其中，美国玉米供需数据 与上月相比没有变化；印度产量上调 200 万吨，反映了其种植面积增加，且季风 降雨理想，使得单产潜力改善；根据当地的最新数据，俄罗斯和乌克兰的产量分 别上调了 75 万吨和 30 万吨。贸易方面，全球贸易的主要调整包括巴西出口下调 了 200 万吨，南非出口下调了 90 万吨，中国玉米进口下调了 200 万吨。最终，全 球（除中国外）2024/25 年度玉米结转期末库存上调 62 万吨至 8775 万吨，同比减 少 14.5%；库销比上调 0.1pct 至 9.5%。 ❑ 南北美主产区产量未做调整，全球大豆库销比再度下调 本月 USDA 供需报告中，2024/25 年度全球（除中国外）新季大豆产量未做调整， 维持 4.0 亿吨，同比上一年度增加 6.9%。其中，南美和北美产 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" (maintained) [6] Core Viewpoints - The securities sector is expected to focus on recovery, mergers and acquisitions, and performance growth. The first quarter of 2024 saw a significant decline in net profit for listed brokers, but a rebound is anticipated in the first quarter of 2025 due to improved market conditions and increased trading volume [1][2] - The merger and acquisition theme continues to gain traction, with several significant developments in the industry, including the restructuring of major shareholders and the expansion of the market expectations for mergers among brokerages [1][2] - The financial technology sector is highlighted as a key area for investment, with a focus on companies that can leverage AI technology and offer high cost-performance ratios [3] Summary by Sections Securities Sector - The first quarter of 2024 saw a net profit of 29.4 billion yuan for 43 listed brokers, a year-on-year decline of 32%. However, the first quarter of 2025 is expected to show significant growth due to a low base effect and improved market conditions [1] - The brokerage index has underperformed compared to major indices, presenting a potential for recovery as market activity increases [2] Mergers and Acquisitions - There have been numerous merger and acquisition activities in the brokerage sector since the beginning of the year, with notable announcements from various firms indicating a trend towards consolidation [1][8] Financial Technology - The report emphasizes the importance of identifying high-value financial technology stocks that can benefit from the ongoing AI revolution, particularly those with lower valuations compared to their peers [3][4] Investment Recommendations - Specific recommendations include brokers such as China Galaxy, CITIC Securities, and GF Securities, as well as financial technology firms like Tonghuashun and Dingdian Software [4]