Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The convertible bond ratings are expected to be fully announced by June 30, 2025. The recovery of conversion ability supports the performance of the convertible bond market. Most convertible bonds are priced based on the equity nature of the underlying stocks, and the market is unlikely to be disturbed by rating adjustments. However, during the rating announcement period from May to June, market sentiment will be affected, and the valuation center will continue to decline [1]. - The convertible bonds with rating adjustments in 2025 are mostly not the mainstream bonds of institutions, so the impact on the market is relatively limited. The market is in an upward phase, and although rating adjustments impact the performance of convertible bonds on the day of adjustment, the decline amplitude is relatively small [7]. - The recovery of conversion ability is the core reason for the limited credit risk disturbance in 2025. As of now, each rating index has not shown significant adjustments, and low - rated small - cap stocks have greater elasticity. In May - June, the market has a learning effect, and the convertible bond premium rate has significantly decreased. After April 7, small - cap stocks have been in an upward oscillation phase, and the Treasury bond yield has first risen and then fallen. The conversion parity of the convertible bond market is around 90, and the conversion ability has significantly improved [9]. - After the easing of the Middle - East situation, the equity market has seen an improvement in sentiment and has risen above key points. The convertible bond market has performed well driven by the equity market in the past week. The ratings of several key targets of convertible bonds in the photovoltaic industry, which investors are most concerned about, have remained unchanged, and the rating risk has basically landed, with limited impact on the market. In the third quarter, the valuation center of balanced convertible bonds is expected to return to the upward repair channel, and attention should be paid to the refinement of rhythm and target selection. The allocation strategy is recommended to focus on three main lines: strengthening band - trading on a neutral position to improve position flexibility; selecting high - rated, large - cap, bond - biased convertible bonds to build a defensive bottom - position and combining low - priced balanced individual bonds to obtain elastic returns; closely monitoring the windows of redemption, downward adjustment and other clauses and credit rating changes to strengthen the ability to capture clause - game and event - driven returns [10][12]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1 Market Observation - As of June 27, 2025, 433 convertible bonds have disclosed their 2025 annual ratings, accounting for over 90%. Among them, 32 convertible bonds have had their ratings downgraded, accounting for 7.4%, and the rating adjustment ratio is slightly lower than that in 2024. Another 5 convertible bonds had their ratings downgraded before May, and their ratings remained unchanged in this annual review. Only 5 of these convertible bonds with rating adjustments have a bond balance greater than 1 billion, and their initial ratings are mostly A+ and below, so they are not mainstream bonds of institutions, and the impact on the market is relatively limited [7]. - Taking Wenti Convertible Bond as an example, on June 18, it opened with a decline of over 4%, and its pricing credit rating was downgraded from AA to AA-. Then it repaired upwards. Due to the good overall market sentiment this week, it recovered to above 110, only falling 1 yuan compared to before the rating adjustment. Most convertible bonds with rating adjustments are priced above 115 and are priced based on equity nature, so the decline in the bond floor caused by rating downgrades does not affect the convertible bond price [7]. 2 Convertible Bond Market Tracking 2.1 Convertible Bond Market Trends - The report provides the performance data of various convertible bond indexes in different time periods (near - week, near - two - week, since March, near - one - month, near - two - months, near - half - year, near - one - year), such as the WanDe Convertible Bond Energy Index, WanDe Convertible Bond Materials Index, etc. [16]. 2.2 Individual Convertible Bonds - Information on the top five and bottom five individual convertible bonds in terms of price increase and decrease in the near - week is presented [17][19]. 2.3 Convertible Bond Valuation - Valuation trend charts of bond - nature, balanced, and equity - nature convertible bonds, as well as the conversion premium rate valuation trend charts of convertible bonds with different parities (90 - 100, 100 - 110, 110 - 120) are provided [21][23][29]. 2.4 Convertible Bond Prices - Charts showing the proportion trends of high - priced bonds, low - priced bonds, bonds breaking below the bond floor, and the median price trend of the convertible bond market are provided [32][35][38].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - In May 2025, China's engineering machinery export value reached 36.168 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.1%, with a cumulative export value of 165.91 billion yuan from January to May, also up by 10.2% year-on-year [2][3] - The globalization of the engineering machinery industry is ongoing, with an expected continuous increase in overseas market share, where exports are becoming a major source of profit [2] - The "Belt and Road" initiative is driving demand growth and market share enhancement, particularly in emerging markets benefiting from urbanization and industrialization [2] Summary by Sections Export Performance - In May 2025, the export value of engineering machinery was 5.024 billion USD, a year-on-year increase of 8.5%, with a cumulative export value of 23.095 billion USD from January to May, up by 9.0% year-on-year [2] - The export volume of excavators from January to May increased by 23%, with an export value growth of 22% [14] Market Share and Profitability - The top three Chinese manufacturers, XCMG, SANY, and Zoomlion, hold a combined market share of 12.4% in the global top 50 engineering machinery manufacturers, indicating significant room for growth [2] - The overseas revenue and gross profit margins of the five major manufacturers are projected to reach 52% and 61% respectively in 2024, with year-on-year growth rates of 16% and 17%, surpassing domestic growth rates [2] Regional Export Breakdown - From January to May 2025, exports to Africa reached 3.21 billion USD, up by 49.3%, while exports to Asia were 10.163 billion USD, up by 15.6% [2] - Exports to countries along the "Belt and Road" totaled 11.13 billion USD, a year-on-year increase of 9.8%, accounting for 48.2% of total exports [2] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on industry leaders such as SANY Heavy Industry, XCMG, Shantui, Hengli Hydraulic, Zoomlion, LiuGong, Hangcha Group, Anhui Heli, and Zhongli [2]

Key Points Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives rating criteria for different types of bonds: - **Interest - rate bonds**: Based on the net price change of interest - rate bonds within 3 months after the report date. "Increase holding" means interest risk decreases and net price has room to rise; "Neutral" means interest risk is stable and net price has minor fluctuations; "Reduce holding" means interest risk increases and net price has room to fall [40]. - **Credit bonds**: Based on the net price change of credit bonds within 3 months after the report date. "Increase holding" means credit risk decreases and net price has room to rise; "Neutral" means credit risk is stable and net price has minor fluctuations; "Reduce holding" means credit risk increases and net price has room to fall [41]. - **Convertible bonds**: Based on the change of convertible bond price relative to the CSI Convertible Bond Index within 3 months after the report date. "Increase holding" means convertible bonds perform better than the index; "Neutral" means performance is the same as the index; "Reduce holding" means performance is worse than the index [42]. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Funds**: In the next week, the net financing scale of government bonds will decline, and the central bank is expected to withdraw funds as usual at the beginning of the month. The funds market is likely to maintain a balanced operation and cross the month smoothly [1]. - **Certificates of Deposit (CDs)**: In the next week, the maturity scale of CDs is about 0.25 trillion yuan, and the supply pressure will decrease. The funds market at the beginning of the month is expected to return to a balanced and loose state, and CD yields may show a volatile trend [1]. - **Institutional Behavior**: Funds, rural commercial banks, and other products are the main buyers of interest - rate bonds, and the net buying power of rural commercial banks has significantly rebounded [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Liquidity Tracking 3.1.1 Funds Review - **Central Bank's Operations**: From June 23 - 27, 2025, the central bank had a net funds injection of 1267.2 billion yuan. This month, the net injection of MLF was 118 billion yuan, and the net injection of outright repurchase was 20 billion yuan. The OMO stock increased to 2027.5 billion yuan [10]. - **Exchange Rate Movement**: During the statistical period, the RMB depreciated by 1.62 basis points against the US dollar due to uncertainties in US tariffs and the increasing expectation of Fed rate cuts [10]. - **Government Bond Progress**: In the past week, the net financing of national bonds was 111 billion yuan, and the net financing since the beginning of the year was 3350.16 billion yuan, completing 50.3% of the annual plan. The issuance of new local bonds was 479.467 billion yuan, and the issuance since the beginning of the year was 2558.12 billion yuan, completing 49.2% of the annual plan. As of June 27, the issuance of special refinancing bonds for replacing implicit debts was 1.8 trillion yuan, completing 89.8% of the annual plan [13]. - **Funds Structure**: During the statistical period, the lending scale of national and joint - stock banks exceeded 5 trillion yuan, the lending scale of money market funds and wealth management products decreased, and the overall borrowing scale of non - bank institutions decreased significantly. Due to the strong demand for cross - month funds, the core funds rate increased marginally, and the R - series and DR - series moved basically in sync, with an obvious increase in liquidity stratification [16]. 3.1.2 CD Review - **Primary Market**: From June 23 - 27, 2025, the net financing of inter - bank CDs was - 411.35 billion yuan, and the issuance totaled 736.46 billion yuan, with a maturity volume of 1137.81 billion yuan. The average primary issuance rate was 1.6409% (previous value: 1.6556%). In the next three weeks, the maturities of inter - bank CDs will be 245.79 billion, 510.52 billion, and 802.81 billion yuan respectively [19]. - **Secondary Market**: During the statistical period, large banks, money market funds, and wealth management products continued to increase their holdings, while insurance companies and other product accounts continued to hold. Joint - stock banks changed from buying to selling. City and rural commercial banks were still the largest counterparties. The secondary market yield of CDs fluctuated slightly upward, the yield curve remained inverted, and the curve above 3M steepened. The yields of 1M/3M/6M/9M/1Y CDs changed by 3.37BP/0.50BP/1.00BP/0.35BP/0.85BP respectively [21]. 3.1.3 Next Week's Focus - **Funds**: The central bank continued to over - renew MLF in June, and has been renewing MLF for 4 consecutive months to inject liquidity, combined with a net injection of 20 billion yuan in outright repurchase. The funds market was in a balanced and loose state. In the next week, the net financing scale of government bonds will decline, and the central bank is expected to withdraw funds as usual at the beginning of the month. The funds market is likely to maintain a balanced operation and cross the month smoothly [25]. - **CDs**: In the past month, the net financing of CDs remained negative. The central bank's increased open - market operations effectively relieved the banks' liability pressure, and the central level of primary CD rates decreased. In the next week, the maturity scale of CDs is about 0.25 trillion yuan, and the supply pressure will decrease. The funds market at the beginning of the month is expected to return to a balanced and loose state, and CD yields may show a volatile trend [26]. 3.2 Weekly Institutional Behavior Tracking - **Long - term Bond Funds' Duration**: On June 27, the median of the 10 - day rolling average duration of long - term bond funds was 3.91 years, a slight increase from the previous period [31]. - **Institutional Bond - Buying Behavior** - **Large Banks' Bond - Buying**: In the past week, large banks bought 28.7 billion yuan of national bonds (previous week: 51.7 billion yuan), a slight decline [31]. - **Interest - rate Bond Buyers**: Funds, rural commercial banks, and other products are the main buyers. Rural commercial banks' net buying power has significantly rebounded. In the past week, funds' net buying of interest - rate bonds was 89 billion yuan (previous week: 141.3 billion yuan), rural commercial banks' net buying was 47.3 billion yuan (previous week: - 127.2 billion yuan), and other products' net buying was 23.6 billion yuan (previous week: 42.8 billion yuan) [31]. - **CD Buyers**: Large banks, money market funds, wealth management products, and insurance companies are the main buyers. The net buying power of large banks and money market funds has significantly increased, while that of wealth management products and other products has decreased. In the past week, large banks' net buying of CDs was 73.2 billion yuan (previous week: 33.7 billion yuan), money market funds' net buying was 57.3 billion yuan (previous week: 41.6 billion yuan), wealth management products' net buying was 48.4 billion yuan (previous week: 80.9 billion yuan), and insurance companies' net buying was 23.5 billion yuan (previous week: 28 billion yuan) [31]. - **Credit Bond Buyers**: The net buying scale of major non - bank buyers of credit bonds has slightly declined. For credit bonds over 5 years, the net buying scale of non - bank buyers remained basically the same. Overall, funds, wealth management products, other products, money market funds, and insurance companies all participated in buying credit bonds, showing a balanced situation. For credit bonds over 5 years, insurance companies, wealth management products, and other products had strong buying power [31]. - **Secondary Bond Buyers**: The overall net buying demand is not strong. The net buying power of secondary bonds within 2 years has declined, and wealth management products are still the main net buyers. The demand for secondary bonds between 2 - 5 years and over 5 years has also declined significantly [31]. - **Institutional Leverage Level**: In the past week, the bond market leverage ratio was 107.93%, a continued increase from the previous period [32]. - **Key Spreads**: On June 27, the 10Y CDB - 10Y national bond term spread was 3.63bp, and the spread was converging; the 1Y CDB - R001 spread was 5.41BP, and the spread between short - term bond yields and funds prices widened slightly [34].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The report highlights the recovery of demand in European markets and emerging markets, while the trade friction with the US is expected to stabilize demand due to the nature of the products being essential and less price-sensitive [1] - The report indicates that the sentiment in the export chain is likely to improve due to positive signals regarding tariffs and the anticipated interest rate cuts in the US [4][1] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the upcoming CPI data on July 15, which could influence the timing of potential interest rate cuts [4] Summary by Sections Export Direction - Focus on the recovery of demand in European lines and growth in emerging markets [1] - Trade friction with the US is expected to stabilize demand, with tariffs easing and essential products maintaining steady orders [1] Stock Price Review - As of June 28, 31 export companies have shown an average stock price increase of 0.7% since April 2, with about 32% of companies recovering to their April 2 levels [2] - Some companies, like TaoTao Automotive and Spring Power, have significantly exceeded their April 2 highs, while Giant Star Technology still has considerable valuation recovery potential [2] Key Events and Policy Expectations - Positive signals regarding tariffs are expected to alleviate sentiment pressures in the export chain [4] - Market expectations for interest rate cuts have increased, with a 74.8% probability of the first cut occurring in September [4] - The acceleration of tax reform is anticipated to boost terminal demand and corporate CAPEx investment [4] Investment Recommendations - For North America, the report recommends focusing on companies like Giant Star Technology, TaoTao Automotive, and Spring Power, among others [4] - For non-US markets, it suggests companies with both cyclical and growth potential, including Huadong Cable and Sany Heavy Industry [4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Insights - The controllable nuclear fusion industry is experiencing accelerated progress, with increasing attention on core equipment suppliers due to recent industrial and financing catalysts [1] - Shanghai Superconductor's IPO application has been accepted, which is expected to accelerate the industrialization process of fusion. The company aims to raise 1.2 billion for the production of second-generation high-temperature superconducting tapes, with an expected annual output of 6,000 kilometers once fully operational [1] - China’s nuclear fusion roadmap indicates significant advancements, with the CFEDR engineering pile expected to be completed in the 2030s and the PFPP prototype power station in the 2050s [2] - Investment suggestions focus on core equipment suppliers benefiting from the ITER project delivery and new experimental pile construction, including companies like Lianchuang Optoelectronics, Guoguang Electric, and Xuguang Electronics [2] Summary by Sections Recent Developments - The controllable nuclear fusion industry is gaining momentum with significant financing activities and industrial advancements [1] - Shanghai Superconductor is one of the few manufacturers capable of producing over 1,000 kilometers of second-generation high-temperature superconducting tapes annually, holding over 80% market share domestically [1] Technological Progress - The current phase is the engineering feasibility verification stage, with a clear path from "fusion reaction" to "engineering" [2] - The CRAFT project is a key technological guarantee for the CFEDR engineering pile, which has achieved 70% overall progress [2] Investment Recommendations - Focus on midstream equipment suppliers and upstream material providers that are expected to benefit from the ongoing developments in the nuclear fusion sector [2]

Group 1: Industrial Profit Trends - In the first five months of 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises reached CNY 27,204.3 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1%[2] - The profit growth rate slowed down, with May showing a significant decline of 9.1% year-on-year[2] - The impact of short-term investment income fluctuations is evident, with a 1.7 percentage point drop in profit growth attributed to high base effects from the previous year[2] Group 2: Policy and Sector Contributions - The "Two New" policies have positively influenced profit recovery, with general and specialized equipment industries seeing profit increases of 10.6% and 7.1% respectively, contributing 0.6 percentage points to overall industrial profit growth[3] - New energy and high-tech manufacturing sectors showed strong profit growth, with electronics and electrical machinery sectors growing by 39.3% and 26.7% respectively[3] Group 3: Demand and Pricing Dynamics - Industrial producer prices fell by 3.3% year-on-year in May 2025, indicating low effective demand relative to supply, which continues to pressure profit growth[4] - The revenue profit margin for industrial enterprises was 4.97% in the first five months, slightly lower than the previous year by 0.19 percentage points[4] Group 4: Future Outlook and Risks - Industrial profit growth is expected to improve slightly in the second half of 2025, with an annual growth forecast of 2.1%[10] - The ongoing U.S. tariff war poses a manageable risk to overall industrial profits, but certain light industries are under significant pressure due to their high export dependency[6][8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Insights - The company is actively researching stablecoin-related digital solutions and seeking partners for potential collaboration in stablecoin issuance and operation [1][17] - The company has accumulated relevant technology and experience in stablecoin operations, with overseas revenue reaching 129 million, accounting for 7.43% of total revenue in 2024 [2][23] - Stablecoins are recognized for their importance in enhancing payment efficiency and the status of fiat currencies, with significant implications for the internationalization of the RMB [3][42] Summary by Sections Section 1: Technology Accumulation and Overseas Experience - The company is engaged in the development of digital solutions for stablecoins and is exploring partnerships for issuance and operation [1][17] - It has extensive experience in building systems for stablecoin operations, having successfully implemented projects in Southeast Asia [2][21] - Major tech companies are entering the stablecoin space, which may present opportunities for the company [26] Section 2: Strategic Significance of Stablecoins - Stablecoins are transforming global payment methods, significantly reducing cross-border transaction costs and settlement times [3][34] - The dominance of USD-pegged stablecoins in the market enhances the influence of the US dollar globally, with implications for the RMB's internationalization [3][42] Section 3: Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company’s revenue is projected to reach 1.999 billion, 2.334 billion, and 2.695 billion from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding net profits of 116 million, 164 million, and 206 million [4][12] - The projected P/E ratios for 2025-2027 are 126.26, 88.92, and 70.87, respectively [4][12]

Core Viewpoints - Despite a turbulent external environment, domestic economic growth is likely to exceed 5% in the first half of the year [1][29] - The market is expected to welcome clearer trading opportunities in July, with increased uncertainty and potential for amplified market volatility [1][29] - There is a recommendation to focus on mid and small-cap stocks, particularly in the financial, growth, and consumer sectors, with an emphasis on banks, brokerages, and TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) [1][5] Market Style Rotation - The market style is shifting towards mid and small-cap stocks, with mid-cap stocks expected to outperform small and large-cap stocks [2][12] - Valuation styles show no significant difference between value and growth indices, indicating a balanced distribution of growth and value styles [2][12] - The industry style ranking suggests that consumption, finance, and growth sectors are expected to outperform, while dividend styles rank lower [2][12] Industry Allocation - The banking sector is viewed as a stabilizing force, while brokerages are expected to find their rhythm, and there is a bullish outlook on TMT [3][5] - Key industries to watch include banks, which are benefiting from asset scarcity and new regulations, brokerages with low valuations and high potential, media driven by short drama trends, and electronics benefiting from semiconductor sales cycles [3][5] Calendar Effect - Historical data from 2010 to 2024 indicates that mid-cap growth styles tend to outperform in July [4][12] - The performance of various indices shows that mid-cap growth indices like the CSI 500 and STAR Market 50 have historically had better outcomes compared to small-cap indices [4][12] Next Month's Sector Allocation Recommendations - The report suggests a focus on financial and technology sectors, with a positive outlook on mid and small-cap stocks [5][29] - The anticipated market dynamics will revolve around internal policy developments, mid-year earnings disclosures, and external changes, which may lead to increased market volatility [5][29]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.2%, the CSI 300 decreased by 0.4%, the STAR Market 50 dropped by 0.6%, the CSI 1000 declined by 0.5%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.7%. The Hang Seng Index also fell by 0.6% [4] - The best-performing sectors on Thursday were banking (+1.0%), telecommunications (+0.8%), defense and military industry (+0.6%), social services (+0.4%), and oil and petrochemicals (+0.3%). The worst-performing sectors included automotive (-1.4%), non-bank financials (-1.2%), pharmaceutical and biotechnology (-1%), beauty and personal care (-1%), and steel (-0.8%) [4] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 15,832 billion, with a net inflow of 5.29 billion Hong Kong dollars from southbound funds [4] Company Insights XCMG Machinery (000425) - On May 15, XCMG delivered 100 units of fully electric unmanned mining trucks to Huaneng Yimin Open-pit Coal Mine for operation [5] - The company is expanding its mining machinery footprint, continuously breaking through with key clients [5] - Investment opportunities include the official operation of 100 unmanned electric mining trucks, positioning the company towards becoming a global leader in construction machinery [5] - Catalysts for growth include exceeding order expectations, higher-than-expected growth in real estate, infrastructure, and mining investments, and continuous breakthroughs with clients [5] Media and Internet Industry - With the summer season approaching, 94 films have been scheduled for release, indicating a rise in both quantity and quality, which is expected to lead to a significant year-on-year increase in box office revenue [6] - The export of television dramas with romantic themes is anticipated to generate substantial growth, while interactive film and game sectors are emerging as potential high-return opportunities with low costs [6] - Investment opportunities in the film sector include companies like Maoyan Entertainment, Guomai Culture, Alibaba Pictures, Light Media, and Huayi Brothers; in the television drama sector, companies like Zhangyue Technology and Huace Film & TV are highlighted; and in the interactive film and game sector, companies like Huanrui Century and Shanghai Film are noted [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Standing at the end of June and looking forward to July, investors' consensus on the bond market may have shifted to going long on long - term and ultra - long - term bonds. The increase in the proportion of bullish sentiment indicates a higher possibility of a stronger bond market. The capital market remains the core concern of investors, and their preference for medium - and low - grade and high - grade urban investment bonds has marginally weakened [1]. - Four mainstream expectations for the July bond market from investors are summarized based on the survey: the expected range of long - term Treasury yields is concentrated, showing a "ceiling and floor" state; the bullish sentiment in the bond market is rising, corresponding to the current relatively strong market; external factors may have limited impact on the macro - economy, and investors' overall expectation of the second - quarter economy has improved, with limited possibility of short - term monetary policy easing, while monetary policy and the capital market remain the core concerns; due to the front - running market in June, investors' consensus may have shifted to going long on long - term and ultra - long - term bonds, and the proportion of those bullish on ultra - long and long - term interest - rate bonds has increased significantly compared to the June survey [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Questionnaire Background - A bond market questionnaire "How to view the July bond market?" was released on June 24, 2025, targeting the main concerns of the June 2025 bond market. By 17:00 on June 25, 245 valid questionnaires were received, covering various institutional and individual investors [8]. 3.2 Expectations for Treasury Yields - **10 - year Treasury Yields**: 47% of investors think the lower limit of the 10 - year Treasury yield will fall within 1.55% - 1.60%, and 27% think it will fall within 1.50% - 1.55%. 68% believe the upper limit will not exceed 1.70%. The probability of the 10 - year Treasury rate breaking below 1.6% is increasing [10]. - **30 - year Treasury Yields**: Over 64% of investors think the lower limit of the 30 - year Treasury yield will fall within 1.80% - 1.90%, and about 45% think the upper limit will fall within 1.75% - 1.80%. Investors' expectation of continuous oscillation of the 30 - year Treasury yield has been strengthened [12]. 3.3 Economic Outlook - Regarding the second - quarter economic trend, 12% of investors are optimistic, 23% think it will be "year - on - year recovery, month - on - month in line with seasonality", 35% think it will be "year - on - year recovery, month - on - month weaker than seasonality", and 30% are relatively pessimistic. Overall, investors' expectation of the second - quarter economy has improved, and the proportion of pessimistic expectations has decreased from 39% to 30% [13][16]. 3.4 Monetary Policy Expectations - **降准**: 20% of investors think there will be no more reserve requirement ratio cuts this year, 50% think the next cut may be in the third quarter, and 25% think it will be postponed to the fourth quarter. - **降息**: 17% of investors think there will be no more interest rate cuts this year, nearly 50% think the next cut may be in the third quarter, and 33% think it will be postponed to the fourth quarter. The game around monetary policy may continue [17]. 3.5 Impact of Geopolitical Events - 67% of investors think the Israel - Iran conflict will have limited impact on the domestic bond market. Those who think it may have an impact mostly believe it may trigger a global risk - aversion sentiment, pushing funds into the gold and Treasury markets and lowering bond yields [18]. 3.6 Market Trend and Operation - **Market Trend**: 70% of investors think the bond market will strengthen in July, with 33% expecting a bull - steepening yield curve and 37% expecting a bull - flattening yield curve. Due to the front - running market in June, investors' consensus has shifted to going long on long - term and ultra - long - term bonds, and institutional investors' clustering may boost the market [23]. - **Operation**: 55% of investors think they should keep their positions stable, 14% think they should hold cash and wait for a callback to add positions, 11% think they can start adding positions, 16% think they should take profits and reduce positions, and about 4% think they should reduce duration to control risks [24]. 3.7 Preferred Bond Types - Ultra - long and long - term interest - rate bonds are the most favored by investors, while the preference for medium - and low - grade urban investment bonds has declined [26]. 3.8 Bond Pricing Logic - Monetary policy and the capital market are still the core concerns of bond investors. Investors' attention to institutional behavior games has increased, while their attention to the performance of the equity market has decreased marginally [29].