Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.4%, while the CSI 300 increased by 0.2%. The STAR Market 50 index fell by 0.9%, and the ChiNext index decreased by 0.2%. The Hang Seng Index dropped by 0.9% [6] - The best-performing sectors included comprehensive (+2.6%), pharmaceutical and biological (+1.8%), banking (+1.5%), non-ferrous metals (+1.5%), and public utilities (+1.1%). The worst-performing sectors were computer (-1.2%), retail (-0.8%), telecommunications (-0.5%), media (-0.4%), and electric equipment (-0.4%) [6] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 14,660 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 5.22 billion Hong Kong dollars from southbound funds [6] Important Recommendations Company: 科创新源 (300731) - The recommendation logic indicates that the new energy battery and data center thermal management business are expected to drive the company into a rapid growth cycle, especially with the collaboration with Dongguan Zhaoke, potentially entering the overseas AI core industry chain [7] - Expected revenue for 2025-2027 is projected at 1,449.79 million, 2,420.74 million, and 3,370.63 million yuan, with growth rates of 51.32%, 66.97%, and 39.24% respectively. Net profit is forecasted at 91.67 million, 156.54 million, and 218.58 million yuan, with growth rates of 430.54%, 70.76%, and 39.63% [7] Company: 卫龙美味 (09985) - The recommendation logic highlights that as a leading spicy snack company, it is positioned in a high-growth sector, with the rapid growth of konjac products expected to drive performance beyond expectations [8] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 7,881 million, 9,494 million, and 11,265 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 26%, 20%, and 19%. Net profit is expected to be 1,360 million, 1,670 million, and 1,984 million yuan, with growth rates of 27%, 23%, and 19% [9] Important Insights Sector: Precious Metals - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of interest rate cuts, maintaining a bullish outlook on gold. The market currently prices in a 75% probability of a Fed rate cut in September [10] - The report suggests that the existing upward short-term event catalysts have been fully priced in, and the overall bullish logic for gold remains unchanged despite market skepticism [10] Company: 奥比中光 (688322) - The company has achieved a turnaround in the first five months of 2025, driven by the accelerated implementation of its "technology innovation investment - commercial results transformation" strategy [11] - Key catalysts include the acceleration of humanoid robot mass production and the enhancement of the value of the company's visual solutions [11]

Market Overview - On June 30, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.59%, the CSI 300 increased by 0.37%, the STAR 50 climbed by 1.54%, the CSI 1000 went up by 1.26%, the ChiNext Index gained 1.35%, while the Hang Seng Index fell by 0.87% [4][5] - The best-performing sectors on June 30 were defense and military (+4.35%), media (+2.82%), telecommunications (+1.9%), electronics (+1.44%), and textiles and apparel (+1.41%). The worst-performing sectors included non-bank financials (-0.77%), banking (-0.34%), transportation (-0.09%), conglomerates (+0.06%), and oil and petrochemicals (+0.11%) [4][5] - The total trading volume for the A-share market on June 30 was 15,173.7 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 5.22 billion Hong Kong dollars from southbound funds [4][5] Key Recommendations - The report highlights Huitong Co., Ltd. (688219) as a leading player in modified materials, emphasizing its continuous expansion and the development of special materials to create new growth curves [6] - The recommendation logic includes the company's deep focus on modified plastics, significant competitive advantages, and potential for sustained growth, particularly in emerging fields such as robotics and low-altitude materials [6] - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 7,195 million yuan, 8,512 million yuan, and 9,985 million yuan from 2025 to 2027, with revenue growth rates of 18.19%, 18.31%, and 17.30% respectively. Net profits are projected to be 245 million yuan, 327 million yuan, and 428 million yuan, with growth rates of 26.47%, 33.34%, and 30.76% respectively [6] Industry Insights - The report discusses the rapid growth phase of the unmanned vehicle industry, particularly focusing on Robovans in logistics and the potential for Robo-X in other scenarios [7] - Investment opportunities are identified in unmanned vehicle-related stocks that are likely to achieve early volume in closed and specialized scenarios [8] - Catalysts for growth include unexpected policy support and technological advancements, while risks involve potential underperformance in volume growth and changes in competitive dynamics [8]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities [4]. Core Viewpoints - The company is a leading player in the spicy snack sector, benefiting from the growth of the konjac product category, which has driven rapid revenue growth over the past 25 years. The company possesses strong brand power and product development capabilities, supported by a big product strategy and refined channel management for long-term growth [1][2]. Summary by Sections Future Development Highlights - The konjac snack industry is projected to reach a scale of 12 billion yuan in 2024, characterized by high customer unit prices, broad audience coverage, and health benefits, indicating significant market potential. The company, as a pioneer in the konjac category, is expected to generate over 3 billion yuan in revenue from konjac products in 2024, maintaining its industry leadership [2]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for the company from 2025 to 2027 are 7.881 billion, 9.494 billion, and 11.265 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 26%, 20%, and 19% respectively. Net profit forecasts for the same period are 1.360 billion, 1.670 billion, and 1.984 billion yuan, with growth rates of 27%, 23%, and 19%. The expected EPS for 2025-2027 is 0.56, 0.69, and 0.82 yuan, corresponding to P/E ratios of 23.68, 19.29, and 16.24 times. The company is currently in a konjac product growth phase, with a valuation of 25-30 times P/E, translating to a market value of 34-40.8 billion yuan, indicating further upside potential [4][6]. Financial Summary - The company's revenue has shown steady growth, increasing from 2.76 billion yuan in 2018 to 6.266 billion yuan in 2024, with a CAGR of 14.6%. The net profit has also risen from 476 million yuan in 2018 to 1.069 billion yuan in 2024, with a net profit margin of 17.06% in 2024, reflecting strong profitability [24][30]. Core Competitiveness - The company has established a robust brand foundation and a comprehensive product matrix, with a strong focus on the spicy snack market. The konjac product line has emerged as a significant growth driver, with revenue from this category increasing from 298 million yuan in 2018 to 3.371 billion yuan in 2024, achieving a CAGR of 49.84% [36][37]. Product Foundation - The company has a well-structured product matrix, including traditional spicy snacks, vegetable products, and bean products. The konjac product "Konjac Delight" has become a key growth driver, while traditional spicy snacks remain a core product line despite a decrease in revenue share [41][43].

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for June is 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from May, indicating ongoing economic recovery but with increased uncertainty in the economic fundamentals[1] - The production index in June is 51.0%, rising 0.3 percentage points from May, suggesting a return to normal operations in manufacturing[3] - The new orders index is at 50.2%, up 0.4 percentage points from last month, reflecting a moderate recovery in domestic demand[11] Group 2: Industry Performance - The equipment manufacturing PMI is 51.4%, high-tech manufacturing PMI is 50.9%, and consumer goods PMI is 50.4%, all indicating expansion for two consecutive months[1] - The high-energy consumption industry PMI is 47.8%, up 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, showing improvement in the sector[1] - The strategic emerging industries PMI (EPMI) fell to 47.9%, down 3.1 percentage points from May, indicating a seasonal decline in industry performance[16] Group 3: Market Outlook - The expectation for the second half of the year is a dual bull market in stocks and bonds, supported by a potential easing of US-China trade relations and risk-averse funds[2] - The 10-year government bond yield is projected to decline to around 1.5% amid low probability of large-scale domestic demand stimulus[2] - The overall GDP growth target for 2025 is expected to be around 5%, with quarterly growth rates of 5.2%, 4.8%, and 4.7% anticipated for Q2, Q3, and Q4 respectively[20]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company [6]. Core Insights - The company is positioned to enter a high growth cycle driven by its dual focus on polymer materials and thermal management systems, particularly in the booming sectors of new energy vehicles and data centers [1][4]. - The company has experienced a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14.05% in revenue from 2017 to 2023, with a significant revenue increase of 72% year-over-year in 2024, primarily due to the rapid expansion in the new energy battery sector [1][29]. - The company is expected to achieve substantial revenue growth, with projections of 1.45 billion, 2.42 billion, and 3.37 billion yuan in revenue for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting year-over-year growth rates of 51.3%, 67.0%, and 39.2% [4][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Thermal Management System Business - The company has established a dual business model focusing on polymer materials and thermal management, serving major clients such as Huawei and CATL [18][19]. - In 2024, the company plans to invest 90 million yuan in a new project for large-area cooling liquid plates for new energy vehicles to meet the production demands of major clients [3]. 2. AI Liquid Cooling - The demand for AI-driven data centers is expected to surge, with the company aiming to penetrate the supply chain of leading server manufacturers by establishing a subsidiary focused on data center cooling solutions [2][40]. - The company plans to acquire a 51% stake in Dongguan Zhaoke, a thermal interface materials company, to enhance its product offerings and market reach [2][24]. 3. Vehicle Cooling Plates - The company is set to benefit from the increasing production of CATL's Kirin and Shenxing batteries, which will enhance the value of its liquid cooling plates used in electric vehicles [3][75]. - The new energy business is projected to generate significant revenue, with a forecasted increase of 361.36% year-over-year in 2024 [35]. 4. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to enter a rapid growth phase driven by its new energy battery and data center thermal management businesses, with a projected net profit of 0.92 billion, 1.57 billion, and 2.19 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4][12]. - The report anticipates a significant improvement in profitability, with net profit growth rates of 430.5%, 70.8%, and 39.6% for the same years [4].

海外科技周度复盘 ——海外科技产业跟踪（2025.6.23-6.29） 跟踪要点 ❑ 一周海外科技行情 6 月 23 日- 6 月 29 日，标普 500 指数上涨 3.4%，纳斯达克指数上涨 4.2%， NVDA 上涨 9.7%，TSLA 上涨 0.5%，AAPL 基本持平，MSFT 上涨 3.9%， AMZN 上涨 6.5%，META 上涨 7.5%，GOOGL 上涨 7.1%，AVGO 上涨 7.7%。 ❑ 近期海外科技重点事件 软银对 OpenAI 的总投资将达到 332 亿美元。6 月 27 日，软银 CEO 孙正义在软 银集团的股东大会上表示，软银向 OpenAI 的总投资将达到 4.8 万亿日元（约合 332 亿美元）。 马斯克宣布 7 月 4 日后发布 Grok 4 模型。6 月 27 日，马斯克在 X 上宣布，将于 7 月 4 日后发布 Grok 4。他透露，"和 xAI 团队通宵打磨 Grok，下一代模型将 被称为 Grok 4，在独立日（7 月 4 日）之后就发布。还需针对专业编程模型进行 一次重大调试。" OpenAI 希望通过谷歌云租用的 TPU 芯片降低推理计算成本。据媒体报道，作 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [8] Core Views - The company achieved a turnaround in profitability from January to May 2025, with revenue of 363 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 117%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 55 million yuan, marking a return to profitability [1] - The company's strategy of "technology innovation investment - commercialization of results" is accelerating, providing a strong foundation for technological iteration and innovation across various sectors, including humanoid robots and AI hardware upgrades [1] - The humanoid robot industry is entering a rapid expansion phase, with an estimated demand of approximately 2.1 million units and a market space of about 314.6 billion yuan by 2030 [1][2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first five months of 2025, the company reported revenue of 363 million yuan and a net profit of 55 million yuan, indicating a significant recovery [1] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 1.03 billion, 1.63 billion, and 2.16 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 82%, 58%, and 32% respectively [5][7] Market Position - The company is positioned in the top tier of global 3D vision technology, with a comprehensive R&D capability and a wide-ranging technology layout [3] - The demand for 3D vision sensors in humanoid robots is expected to grow from 14 million yuan in 2025 to 915 million yuan by 2030, with a CAGR of 132% [2] Product Development - The company has a strong product matrix that is widely recognized across various industries, serving over 1,000 clients including major players like Ant Group and China Mobile [3] - Continuous R&D investment has led to the development of advanced products such as the Femto series ToF cameras and Gemini series binocular structured light cameras [3] Strategic Partnerships - Ant Group has announced its entry into the humanoid robot sector, which may lead to deeper collaboration with the company in the field of robot vision sensors [4]

Report Information - Report Title: What are the Patterns in Credit Bond Transactions in the Past Year? — One of the Series on Analyzing Bonds through Volatility [1] - Analyst: Du Jian, CFA from Zheshang Fixed Income [1] - Date: June 27, 2025 [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - The report analyzes the indicators for observing secondary - market credit bond transactions and the patterns in credit bond transactions over the past year, including increased preference for second - tier and perpetual (二永) bonds, reduced sustainability of the duration strategy, the potential of the deviation of 二永 bonds from valuation in trading as a leading indicator of yields, and increased selling pressure on long - duration credit bonds during adjustments [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Through which indicators to observe credit bond secondary transactions? - "Price" indicators: Broker transactions can collect a large amount of market trading information. After filtering out invalid quotes, they provide the best price to customers, reflecting comprehensive price information. Suitable for constructing price indicators such as trading deviation, trading yield, and high - valuation trading ratio [4][8] - "Volume" indicators: Traders use brokers to find prices and trading counterparts and then complete transactions on the China Foreign Exchange Trade System (CFETS) or exchange platforms. Platform transactions can fully reflect the specific scale of trading volume, suitable for constructing volume indicators such as trading duration and turnover rate [4][8] 3.2成交规律一：对二永债的偏好大幅提升 - Since July 2024, the trading activity of credit bonds has significantly increased compared to previous years, with the increase in trading volume mainly in 二永 bonds. The reasons are that 二永 bonds are interest - rate amplifiers, facilitating capital gain speculation in a strong downward - interest - rate market, and investors prefer 二永 bonds for their better liquidity during market adjustments. Investors' preference is mainly concentrated on state - owned and joint - stock bank 二永 bonds [12] 3.3成交规律二：久期策略持续性降低 - Since August 2024, long - duration credit bonds have shown a "fast - up - fast - down" pattern, with liquidity issues during corrections. They failed to provide stable excess returns as in 2023 - H1 2024. The trading duration centers of urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, and 二永 bonds have remained at 2.5 years, 3 years, and 3.5 years respectively [13] 3.4成交规律二：近期机构对于城投、产业拉久期诉求高于二永 - In recent duration strategies, the market has focused on extending the duration of medium - and high - grade urban investment and industrial bonds, while the trading duration of state - owned and joint - stock bank 二永 bonds has not significantly increased. This is because the trading duration of 二永 bonds is already high, and the market also wants to balance coupon income. Since March, the yield of short - duration credit bonds has dropped too fast, and since June, it has been difficult for institutions to obtain short - term bonds with a yield above 2%, leading to passive extension of duration to make up for the lack of coupon income [17][18][19] 3.5成交规律三：二永债偏离估值成交幅度或可视作收益率领先指标 - The trading deviation of 二永 bonds from valuation generally leads credit bond yields by 1 - 3 trading days. In the past year, this indicator led the turning points of credit bond yields on September 26, 2024, October 9, 2024, and January 2 - 3, 2025 [25] 3.6成交规律四：调整期间长久期信用债抛售压力加大 - Since 2024, long - duration credit bonds have seen their liquidity issues magnified during market adjustments, with a significantly higher trading deviation than short - duration credit bonds. In 2023, the trading deviation of 二永 bonds across all durations was around 1bp, and the average trading price of general credit bonds over 5 years was even 0.5bp lower than the valuation. In 2024, the high - valuation trading ratio of long - term bonds was higher than that of short - term bonds [29][31][37]

Group 1: Key Recommendations - The report highlights 京北方 (002987) as a leading financial technology service provider, benefiting from the acceleration of the digital currency strategy and the deep integration of AI in the financial sector, with expected business growth exceeding market expectations [4] - The report anticipates that the company's revenue will grow from 5147 million in 2025 to 6291 million in 2027, with a net profit growth rate of 16.34% in 2025 [5] - The report identifies 珍酒李渡 (06979) as a rare leader in the sauce liquor market, with multiple brands and a flexible operational strategy, poised for performance growth as consumer demand recovers [6] Group 2: Market Insights - The report suggests increasing attention to small and mid-cap stocks, emphasizing financial, growth, and consumer sectors, particularly banks, brokers, and TMT [8] - It notes that the market is expected to experience clearer trading opportunities in July, despite increased uncertainties, with a focus on internal policy developments and mid-report performance disclosures [8] - The report indicates that the industrial profit growth is on a slow recovery path, requiring effective demand to strengthen and industrial product prices to rise reasonably [10] Group 3: Profit Forecasts and Valuations - For 京北方, the target price is set at 28.11 yuan, indicating an upside potential of 54.39%, with a PE ratio forecasted to decrease from 44 in 2025 to 33 in 2027 [5] - For 珍酒李渡, the revenue growth rates are projected at 2%, 5%, and 7% from 2025 to 2027, with net profit growth rates of 14%, 8%, and 10% respectively [7] - The report emphasizes the importance of policy developments as catalysts for both companies, particularly in the context of market recovery and demand restoration [6][10]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The convertible bond ratings are expected to be fully announced by June 30, 2025. The recovery of conversion ability supports the performance of the convertible bond market. Most convertible bonds are priced based on the equity nature of the underlying stocks, and the market is unlikely to be disturbed by rating adjustments. However, during the rating announcement period from May to June, market sentiment will be affected, and the valuation center will continue to decline [1]. - The convertible bonds with rating adjustments in 2025 are mostly not the mainstream bonds of institutions, so the impact on the market is relatively limited. The market is in an upward phase, and although rating adjustments impact the performance of convertible bonds on the day of adjustment, the decline amplitude is relatively small [7]. - The recovery of conversion ability is the core reason for the limited credit risk disturbance in 2025. As of now, each rating index has not shown significant adjustments, and low - rated small - cap stocks have greater elasticity. In May - June, the market has a learning effect, and the convertible bond premium rate has significantly decreased. After April 7, small - cap stocks have been in an upward oscillation phase, and the Treasury bond yield has first risen and then fallen. The conversion parity of the convertible bond market is around 90, and the conversion ability has significantly improved [9]. - After the easing of the Middle - East situation, the equity market has seen an improvement in sentiment and has risen above key points. The convertible bond market has performed well driven by the equity market in the past week. The ratings of several key targets of convertible bonds in the photovoltaic industry, which investors are most concerned about, have remained unchanged, and the rating risk has basically landed, with limited impact on the market. In the third quarter, the valuation center of balanced convertible bonds is expected to return to the upward repair channel, and attention should be paid to the refinement of rhythm and target selection. The allocation strategy is recommended to focus on three main lines: strengthening band - trading on a neutral position to improve position flexibility; selecting high - rated, large - cap, bond - biased convertible bonds to build a defensive bottom - position and combining low - priced balanced individual bonds to obtain elastic returns; closely monitoring the windows of redemption, downward adjustment and other clauses and credit rating changes to strengthen the ability to capture clause - game and event - driven returns [10][12]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1 Market Observation - As of June 27, 2025, 433 convertible bonds have disclosed their 2025 annual ratings, accounting for over 90%. Among them, 32 convertible bonds have had their ratings downgraded, accounting for 7.4%, and the rating adjustment ratio is slightly lower than that in 2024. Another 5 convertible bonds had their ratings downgraded before May, and their ratings remained unchanged in this annual review. Only 5 of these convertible bonds with rating adjustments have a bond balance greater than 1 billion, and their initial ratings are mostly A+ and below, so they are not mainstream bonds of institutions, and the impact on the market is relatively limited [7]. - Taking Wenti Convertible Bond as an example, on June 18, it opened with a decline of over 4%, and its pricing credit rating was downgraded from AA to AA-. Then it repaired upwards. Due to the good overall market sentiment this week, it recovered to above 110, only falling 1 yuan compared to before the rating adjustment. Most convertible bonds with rating adjustments are priced above 115 and are priced based on equity nature, so the decline in the bond floor caused by rating downgrades does not affect the convertible bond price [7]. 2 Convertible Bond Market Tracking 2.1 Convertible Bond Market Trends - The report provides the performance data of various convertible bond indexes in different time periods (near - week, near - two - week, since March, near - one - month, near - two - months, near - half - year, near - one - year), such as the WanDe Convertible Bond Energy Index, WanDe Convertible Bond Materials Index, etc. [16]. 2.2 Individual Convertible Bonds - Information on the top five and bottom five individual convertible bonds in terms of price increase and decrease in the near - week is presented [17][19]. 2.3 Convertible Bond Valuation - Valuation trend charts of bond - nature, balanced, and equity - nature convertible bonds, as well as the conversion premium rate valuation trend charts of convertible bonds with different parities (90 - 100, 100 - 110, 110 - 120) are provided [21][23][29]. 2.4 Convertible Bond Prices - Charts showing the proportion trends of high - priced bonds, low - priced bonds, bonds breaking below the bond floor, and the median price trend of the convertible bond market are provided [32][35][38].