Investment Rating - The report rates the chemical industry as "Outperform" [2] Core Views - The chemical industry has been significantly impacted by tariff-related policies and fluctuations in crude oil prices. Key areas of focus for June include safety regulations affecting the pesticide and intermediate sectors, performance volatility due to export dynamics, the importance of self-sufficiency in electronic materials, and stable dividend policies in energy companies [4][11] - The report suggests a medium to long-term investment strategy focusing on high oil prices, robust performance in the oil and gas extraction sector, and the growth potential in new materials, particularly in electronic and renewable energy materials [4][11] Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - As of June 15, the TTM price-to-earnings ratio for the SW basic chemicals sector is 22.21, at the 62.94 percentile historically, while the price-to-book ratio is 1.81, at the 12.56 percentile historically. For the SW oil and petrochemical sector, the TTM price-to-earnings ratio is 11.50, at the 21.43 percentile historically, and the price-to-book ratio is 1.22, at the 4.50 percentile historically [4][11] Price Changes - In the week of June 9-15, among 100 tracked chemical products, 23 saw price increases, 47 saw decreases, and 30 remained stable. The products with the highest weekly price increases included hydrochloric acid (up 31%), WTI crude oil, and methanol, while those with the largest decreases included liquid chlorine and TDI [10][27] Oil Market Insights - International oil prices saw significant increases, with WTI crude oil futures closing at $72.98 per barrel, a weekly increase of 13.01%, and Brent crude at $74.23 per barrel, up 11.67%. The report notes that U.S. oil production has increased, and demand for gasoline and distillates has risen [28] TDI and Methionine Prices - TDI prices have dropped significantly, with the average price at 11,300 CNY per ton, down 8.87% from the previous week. The report indicates that demand from downstream industries remains weak, with limited new orders [29] - Conversely, methionine prices have risen to 22.20 CNY per kilogram, up 1.05% from the previous week, driven by supply constraints and increased production costs [30]

Core Insights - The report highlights that the economic growth target for 2025 remains unchanged at around 5%, with monetary policy tasks also remaining consistent [6][9] - The financial data for May indicates that new social financing (社融) slightly exceeded expectations, while new RMB loans were slightly below expectations, reflecting a mixed outlook for corporate financing demand [6][9] Macroeconomic Overview - In May, new social financing amounted to 2.29 trillion yuan, an increase of 227.1 billion yuan year-on-year, and higher than the expected 2.05 trillion yuan [6][7] - The stock of social financing grew by 8.7% year-on-year, maintaining the same growth rate as April, but slightly below the expected 8.8% [6][7] - The growth rates for M0, M1, and M2 in May were 12.1%, 2.3%, and 7.9% respectively, with M1 increasing by 0.8 percentage points compared to April [7][8] Financing Structure - The report notes a shift in the structure of social financing, with government bonds seeing an increase in proportion, while RMB loans and bills saw a decrease [7][8] - The trend of "deposit migration" continues, with financial institutions reporting an increase of 2.18 trillion yuan in new deposits in May, up by 500 billion yuan year-on-year [8] Corporate Financing Demand - There is a noted weakness in corporate loan demand, with new loans totaling 620 billion yuan in May, reflecting a decline in short-term and residential loans compared to the previous year [8][9] - The report suggests that internal demand is weak, influenced by unclear U.S. tariff expectations and downward revisions of global economic growth forecasts by international institutions [8][9] Industry Performance - The report provides insights into industry performance, with sectors such as oil and petrochemicals showing positive growth, while sectors like beauty care and media experienced declines [4]

策略研究 | 证券研究报告 — 总量点评 2025 年 6 月 16 日 市场点评报告 车企承诺" 60 天账期"，供应链迎重构契机 车企"60 天账期"承诺有望提升供应链效率，但执行仍面临旧有惯性和转型 挑战。 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 策略研究 证券分析师：王君 (8610)66229061 jun.wang@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300519060003 证券分析师：徐沛东 (8621)20328702 peidong.xu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300518020001 车企"60 天账期"承诺，促进产业健康发展。6 月 10 日晚至 11 日凌晨， 广汽集团、中国一汽、东风汽车、赛力斯、吉利汽车、比亚迪汽车等多 家车企集体发声，承诺供应商账期不超过 60 天，以保障供应链资金高效 周转，助力产业链良好协同发展。此次国内车企集体发声，是响应 2025 年 6 月 1 日施行的《保障中小企业款项支付条例》。 "60 天账期"的调整对汽车行业及其供应链带来了积极影响。首先，缩 短账期有效减轻了供应商的资金压力 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating an expectation that the industry index will perform better than the benchmark index over the next 6-12 months [30]. Core Insights - ByteDance launched several new products at the Volcano Engine Force conference, including the Doubao model 1.6 and the Seedance 1.0 pro video generation model, which has shown outstanding performance in complex reasoning and multi-turn dialogue tests [11][12]. - The Doubao model has a daily token usage exceeding 16.4 trillion, with a market share of 46.4% in China's public cloud model market, leading the sector [12]. - The new generation of domestic optical quantum computer "TurningQ Gen2" was showcased at the Shanghai International Technology Fair, demonstrating computational power comparable to top supercomputers while being energy-efficient and compact [13][14]. - NVIDIA plans to build over 20 AI factories in Europe to enhance AI computing power by tenfold by 2026, collaborating with Mistral AI to create a comprehensive AI ecosystem [15][16]. Summary by Sections Company Developments - iFlytek held a product upgrade conference, launching the upgraded version of its intelligent interaction product, which enhances multilingual capabilities and integrates code generation features [22]. - Suzhou Technology disclosed that its high-precision Lovesim simulation engine has been applied in various aerospace control systems [22]. Investment Recommendations - Attention is recommended for companies in the ByteDance supply chain, including Dazhi Technology, Borui Data, and others, due to the strong market position of the Doubao model [4].

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Macro Economy - The report indicates a rise in global risk aversion following Israel's attack on Iran, leading to a decline in stock markets, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 0.3% and the CSI 1000 down by 0.8% for the week [1][3] - The A-share market saw over 4,400 stocks decline on June 12, influenced by geopolitical tensions, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices in the US also experienced slight declines of 0.4% and 0.6% respectively [1][3] - The report highlights that the medical sector has shown resilience, increasing by 1.4% for the week, marking its eighth consecutive week of gains [1] Market Performance - The average daily trading volume for the week was 1.37 trillion yuan, a 13% increase from the previous week, indicating a recovery in trading activity [1][3] - The turnover rate for the entire A-share market was recorded at 1.6%, with a Z-score increase from 0.4 to 0.8, suggesting higher trading activity compared to historical averages [1][10] - The report notes that the oil and petrochemical sectors, along with non-ferrous metals and media, led the market in gains, while the food and beverage sector, home appliances, and construction materials faced declines [1][7] Valuation Metrics - As of the report's closing, the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the CSI 300 was 12.7, with a Z-score of -0.1, while the CSI 1000 had a P/E ratio of 39.9 and a Z-score of -0.3, indicating relatively low valuations compared to historical data [1][3] - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 had P/E ratios of 26.8 and 33.6 respectively, with Z-scores of 0.5 and 0.8, suggesting that these indices are trading at higher valuations compared to their historical averages [1][3]

Macro Economic Overview - The report highlights three major factors affecting external demand: the potential 50% tariff on various steel household appliances by the US, geopolitical complexities, and the World Bank's downward revision of global GDP growth forecast from 2.7% to 2.3% for 2025 [6][19][20] - The report suggests that the uncertainty in external demand may lead to a greater reliance on domestic demand, with potential for enhanced macro policies to stimulate internal consumption [6][19] Asset Performance Review - The report notes a decline in risk asset prices, with the CSI 300 index down by 0.25% and futures showing a slight increase of 0.04% [2][12] - The yield on ten-year government bonds decreased by 1 basis point to 1.64%, while the active ten-year government bond futures rose by 0.09% [2][12] Asset Allocation Recommendations - The report recommends an overweight position in stocks, focusing on the implementation of "incremental" policies, while suggesting a lower allocation to bonds due to potential short-term impacts from the "stock-bond seesaw" effect [4][13] - Commodities are recommended for standard allocation, with attention to the progress of fiscal incremental policies [4][13] Economic Data Insights - In May, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell by 0.1% year-on-year, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 3.3% [5][19] - The report indicates that the total value of China's goods trade in the first five months reached 17.94 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%, with exports growing by 7.2% [20][21] Market Sentiment and Trends - The report observes a high risk aversion preference in the market, with A-shares showing a downward trend, particularly in small-cap stocks [12][36] - The report notes that the automotive market continues to grow, with production and sales of vehicles increasing by 11.6% and 11.2% year-on-year, respectively [39]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [1][38] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the ongoing growth in the electric equipment and new energy sectors, particularly in the electric vehicle (EV) market, where sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs) continue to rise, with May 2025 sales reaching 1.31 million units, a year-on-year increase of 37% [2][26] - The report emphasizes the importance of solid-state battery technology, with companies like Xiaomi filing patents, indicating a shift towards advanced battery technologies [1][26] - In the photovoltaic (PV) sector, the report notes the recognition of new technologies such as BC components in overseas markets and the improvement in conversion efficiency by leading companies [1][26] - The hydrogen energy sector is also highlighted, with ongoing policy support for its industrialization and recommendations to focus on companies with cost and technological advantages in electrolyzer production [1][26] Summary by Relevant Sections New Energy Vehicles - In May 2025, NEV production and sales reached 1.27 million and 1.31 million units, respectively, marking a year-on-year growth of 35% and 37% [2][26] - Major automakers have announced a reduction in payment terms for suppliers to 60 days to enhance supply chain efficiency [1][26] Power Batteries - In May 2025, the installed capacity of power batteries was 57.1 GWh, a month-on-month increase of 5.5%, with ternary batteries accounting for 10.5 GWh [2][26] - The report mentions Xiaomi's new solid-state battery technology patent, which aims to enhance ion transport efficiency [1][26] Photovoltaics - The report notes the launch of HIBC technology by Longi, achieving a conversion efficiency of 27.81%, pushing the efficiency of PV modules into the "25%+" era [1][26] - The focus on supply-side reforms in the PV sector is emphasized, particularly in the silicon material segment [1][26] Hydrogen Energy - The report discusses ongoing policy initiatives to promote hydrogen energy, including pilot projects in the energy sector [1][26] - Recommendations are made to pay attention to companies benefiting from hydrogen infrastructure development [1][26] Industry Dynamics - The report summarizes key industry dynamics, including the actions of major automakers to streamline supplier payment terms and the growth in NEV sales [1][26] - It also highlights the investment plans in nuclear fusion by the UK government, indicating a broader interest in energy innovation [1][26]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a market price of RMB 8.88 and a sector rating of "Outperform" [2][5]. Core Views - The report highlights the deep integration of oil and gas with new energy, enhancing the company's sustainable development capabilities. It emphasizes the acceleration of CCUS (Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage) projects in Xinjiang Oilfield, aiming for a carbon injection target of 1 million tons by 2025 and 10 million tons by 2030 [4][5][10]. - The company is expected to achieve significant growth in oil and gas production, with shale oil projects exceeding 1 million tons in 2024. The focus is on clean energy alternatives and strategic transitions towards green development [4][5][10]. Financial Summary - The projected net profit for 2025-2027 is RMB 167.96 billion, RMB 169.23 billion, and RMB 179.88 billion, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 9.7x, 9.6x, and 9.0x [7][9]. - The main revenue for 2025 is estimated at RMB 2,951.03 billion, with a slight growth rate of 0.4%. EBITDA is projected at RMB 328.76 billion, with a net profit growth rate of 2.0% [9][11]. - The company plans to maintain high capital expenditures in oil and gas projects, with an estimated capital expenditure of RMB 210 billion for 2025, focusing on unconventional resources and clean energy initiatives [10][11].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the A-share merger and acquisition market in China continues to exhibit high activity, characterized by a high frequency of transactions, diverse participants, and a wide range of sectors involved [1][3] - During the reporting period, a total of 56 merger and acquisition events were disclosed, with a cumulative transaction amount of 159.08 billion RMB, showing an increase in the number of significant events but a decrease in transaction amounts compared to the previous period [3][4] - Key sectors driving the merger and acquisition activity include semiconductors, new energy, pharmaceuticals, and state-owned enterprise reforms, with private enterprises and local state-owned enterprises actively engaging in horizontal integration and strategic cooperation [1][3][4] Group 2 - The report notes that 28 listed companies announced or planned restructuring, with an average bi-weekly increase of 3.48% in their stock prices, while 17 companies achieved significant progress post-announcement, with an average increase of 0.98% [3][6] - The report highlights that the restructuring index showed a bi-weekly change of 0.62%, underperforming the overall A-share index, indicating a slight decline in research enthusiasm despite the increase in significant restructuring events [3][10] - Regulatory changes, including the modification of the "Management Measures for Major Asset Restructuring of Listed Companies," are expected to further stimulate the merger and acquisition market by optimizing the regulatory environment [3][17]