乐方金城国际信用评估有限公司 东方金诚宏观研究 | | - 2025年1月PMI 数据点评 | | --- | --- | | 受春节假期临近等影响，1 月宏观经济景气度下行 | 王青 闫骏 冯琳 | 事件: 根据国家统计局公布的数据, 2025年1月, 中国制造业采购经理指数(PMI)为 49.1%，比 上月下降1个百分点;1月,非制造业商务活动指数为50.2%,比上月下降2个百分点,其中,建筑业 商务活动指数为 49.3%，比上月下降 3.9个百分点，服务业 PMI 指数为50.3%，比上月下降 1.7个百分 点;1月综合PMI 产出指数为50.1%,比上月下降2.1个百分点。 1月PMI 数据要点解读如下: 2025年１月制造业 PMI 指数下行 1 个百分点,再度进入收缩区间,主要是受三个因素影响:一是 李节性因素。可以看到,过去10年中,"春节月"的制造业 PMI 指数"7降3升",其中生产指数下 滑的拖累效应明显。背后是春节临近,员工休假、特别是农民工放假返乡对制造业生产端会形成较强 的下拉效应。可以看到,1月主要行业开工率普遍下行,当月制造业 PMI 中的生产指数为49.8%,较上 月大幅下行 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the convertible bond market in 2024 and 2025 Core Insights - In 2024, the issuance of new convertible bonds is expected to decline significantly due to stringent refinancing policies, with the total issuance dropping to 36.757 billion yuan, a decrease of nearly 75% compared to the previous year [6][10] - The convertible bond market is anticipated to experience fluctuations in 2025, with external and internal economic pressures continuing to impact performance, although a recovery trend may begin to emerge in the fourth quarter [1][2] - The report highlights that the market is likely to see a reduction in outstanding convertible bonds by approximately 100 billion yuan in 2025 due to a combination of new issuances and redemptions [2] Summary by Sections 1. 2024 Convertible Bond Market Review - The refinancing policy remains strict, leading to a significant reduction in the willingness of listed companies to issue convertible bonds, resulting in only 41 bonds being issued in 2024, the lowest since 2017 [6][10] - The total issuance scale for 2024 is 36.757 billion yuan, with an average issuance size of 8.97 million yuan per bond, down from 10.17 million yuan in 2023 [6][10] - The report notes that private enterprises dominate the issuance, contributing over 90% of the total, while state-owned enterprises see a sharp decline in issuance [10][11] 2. 2025 Outlook - The expected issuance of new convertible bonds in 2025 is around 60 billion yuan, with a significant number of bonds reaching maturity and being redeemed [2] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring policy changes and credit risks, which could impact the convertible bond market's performance [2] - The sectors expected to perform well include technology innovation, manufacturing upgrades, and high-dividend stocks, driven by domestic demand policies [2] 3. Market Performance - The convertible bond market experienced a significant rebound in the fourth quarter of 2024, following a series of supportive policies that restored market confidence [25][30] - The report outlines four phases of market performance throughout 2024, highlighting the volatility and eventual recovery driven by policy interventions [25][30] - The banking sector's convertible bonds showed strong performance, with an average increase of over 13%, outperforming other sectors [36]

Group 1: LPR Pricing and Market Expectations - The LPR for January 2025 remains unchanged at 3.10% for the 1-year term and 3.60% for the 5-year term, consistent with market expectations[1] - The stability in LPR pricing is attributed to the unchanged central bank's 7-day reverse repurchase rate, which has been stable since January[2] - The net interest margin of commercial banks fell to 1.53% in Q3 2024, the lowest in history, indicating a lack of motivation for banks to lower LPR pricing further[2] Group 2: Economic Outlook and Policy Implications - Economic growth accelerated in Q4 2024, with GDP rising to 5.4%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points from the previous quarter, reducing the necessity for immediate rate cuts[2] - The central bank is expected to implement significant rate cuts in 2025, potentially lowering rates by 50 basis points, exceeding the 30 basis points cut from the previous year[3] - Structural monetary policy tools will also see rate reductions to support key sectors of the economy, including agriculture and technology[3] Group 3: Future Monetary Policy Directions - There is a possibility of targeted interest rate cuts for residential mortgages to stabilize the real estate market[4] - The central bank aims to alleviate pressure on banks' net interest margins by guiding deposit rates downward and enhancing bank capital[4] - External factors, such as adjustments in the Federal Reserve's rate cuts and fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate, are not expected to significantly impact the central bank's monetary policy stance[4]

Economic Growth - In Q4 2024, GDP growth reached 5.4%, up from 4.6% in Q3, exceeding market expectations[1] - The annual GDP growth for 2024 was 5.0%, slightly down from 5.2% in the previous year[1] - Industrial added value in December grew by 6.2%, compared to 5.4% in November, with an annual cumulative growth of 5.8%[1] Investment and Consumption - Fixed asset investment for the entire year increased by 3.2%, slightly down from 3.3% in the previous year[1] - Retail sales of consumer goods in December grew by 3.7%, up from 3.0% in November, with an annual cumulative growth of 3.5%, significantly lower than the previous year's 7.2%[1] - The real estate sector saw a decline in investment, with a 10.6% drop for the year, indicating ongoing market adjustments[21] Policy Impact - A series of incremental policies effectively boosted economic growth, particularly in Q4, leading to a significant rebound in market confidence[2] - The service sector's production growth improved to 5.8%, a 1 percentage point increase from the previous quarter, driven by enhanced market confidence and consumption policies[2] - The government aims to maintain a GDP growth target of around 5.0% for 2025, with challenges expected from external economic conditions[6] Future Outlook - For 2025, GDP growth is projected to be around 4.7%, supported by counter-cyclical adjustments and the resilience of export enterprises amid trade tensions[6] - Industrial production growth is expected to slow to approximately 4.4% in 2025 due to increased external pressures, although domestic demand may provide some support[11] - Consumer spending is anticipated to recover to a growth rate of about 5.5% in 2025, driven by enhanced consumption policies and support measures[14]

Group 1: Financial Data Overview - In December 2024, new RMB loans amounted to 990 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 180 billion[1] - The new social financing scale in December reached 28,575 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9,249 billion[1] - By the end of December, M2 grew by 7.3% year-on-year, with an acceleration of 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month[1] Group 2: Loan and Financing Trends - December saw a continued decline in new RMB loans, particularly in medium to long-term corporate loans, which only reached 40 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 8,212 billion[2] - Residential medium to long-term loans increased by 1,538 billion year-on-year, marking the third consecutive month of growth[2] - Total new RMB loans for 2024 were 18.09 trillion, a significant decrease of 4.66 trillion compared to 2023[7] Group 3: Social Financing Insights - December's new social financing of 2.86 trillion marked the first year-on-year increase in four months, driven mainly by bond financing, particularly government bonds which increased by 8,288 billion year-on-year[8] - For the entire year of 2024, total social financing was 32.26 trillion, a year-on-year decrease of 3.33 trillion, primarily due to a 5.17 trillion drop in loans to the real economy[10] Group 4: Monetary Policy Outlook - In 2025, the central bank is expected to adopt a moderately loose monetary policy, with new loans and social financing likely to see year-on-year increases[3] - The central bank may implement 2-3 rate cuts totaling 50 basis points in 2025, which is higher than the 30 basis points cut in 2024[16] - The central bank's reserve requirement ratio is currently at 6.6%, with potential for a 1.6 percentage point reduction in 2025[16]

Group 1: Market Overview - Gold prices continued to rise due to increased inflation expectations and safe-haven demand, with Shanghai gold futures up 1.19% to 635.46 CNY/g and COMEX gold futures up 2.44% to 2717.40 USD/oz[2] - The significant rise in gold prices was supported by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Russia, which heightened market demand for safe-haven assets[2] - The international gold basis turned negative to -29.75 USD/oz, a decrease of 33.65 USD/oz from the previous week, while the Shanghai gold basis rose to 1.46 CNY/g, an increase of 1.47 CNY/g[6] Group 2: Price Trends and Predictions - For the week of January 13, gold prices are expected to fluctuate at high levels, influenced by rising inflation and debt risks in the U.S.[3] - The upcoming U.S. CPI data for December is anticipated to show an increase, reinforcing inflation expectations and supporting gold prices[3] - The gold T+D trading volume increased by 20.69% week-on-week, indicating growing market activity[13] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The U.S. December non-farm payrolls added 256,000 jobs, significantly exceeding the expected 165,000, with the unemployment rate dropping to 4.1%[20] - The ISM services PMI for December was reported at 54.1, above expectations, indicating strong economic activity[18] - The U.S. dollar index rose by 0.68% to 109.66, driven by strong employment data and inflation expectations[34]

Export Performance - In December 2024, export value increased by 10.7% year-on-year, a significant rise of 4 percentage points from November's 6.7% growth[2] - December exports to the US surged by 15.6%, accelerating by 7.6 percentage points compared to the previous month[4] - The overall export growth for 2024 reached a historical high with a year-on-year increase of 5.9%, up from a decline of 4.7% in 2023[4] Import Performance - December 2024 saw a 1.0% year-on-year increase in import value, rebounding from a 3.9% decline in November[2] - The annual import growth for 2024 was 1.1%, an increase of 6.6 percentage points compared to the previous year[11] - Despite the positive December performance, the import growth remains low, primarily due to insufficient domestic demand[8] Market Trends and Outlook - The global trade growth rate is expected to rise from 3.1% in 2024 to 3.4% in 2025, indicating a continued recovery in external demand[6] - The electronics sector, particularly integrated circuits, is projected to drive export growth, with export volume and value increasing by 11.6% and 17.4% respectively in 2024[5] - The forecast for early 2025 suggests a potential slowdown in export growth to around 1.0% due to high base effects from the previous year[6]

Summary of Conference Call Company and Industry - The conference call primarily discusses the performance and outlook of a waterproofing materials company, specifically focusing on its operations in the construction and civil engineering sectors. Key Points and Arguments 1. Q4 Performance and Shipping Volume - The company reported a significant increase in shipping volume in December 2024, with a growth of over 40% for rolled materials and 70% for a specific product line, Huartou Liang [2][3][4] 2. Market Conditions and Demand - The demand for waterproofing materials has not shown a clear improvement despite the growth in shipping volume, largely due to a low base effect from the previous year [2][3] - The company noted that the construction sector is undergoing a "deconstruction" process, impacting accounts receivable and cash flow [4][5] 3. Business Strategy and Transformation - The company is shifting its business model from a focus on large-scale construction projects to developing retail channels and partnerships, particularly in non-residential sectors [5][6] - The company aims to maintain a domestic revenue base of approximately 30 billion [9] 4. Industry Challenges - The waterproofing industry has faced significant declines, with a reported drop of 20-30% in overall market demand in 2024 [10][27] - The company anticipates continued pressure on demand in 2025, particularly in the construction sector, but expects to perform better than in 2024 due to structural adjustments [12][18] 5. Competitive Landscape - The industry is experiencing a shakeout, with many small and mid-sized companies exiting due to financial pressures, while larger firms are expected to benefit from increased market share [32][33] - The company is focusing on enhancing its product offerings and leveraging its established brand to capture market opportunities [46][47] 6. International Expansion - The company is expanding its operations in Southeast Asia and the U.S., with ongoing projects in Malaysia and Texas [8][42] - The U.S. market presents significant growth potential, with an expected annual growth rate of over 10% [42] 7. Product Application and Market Segmentation - The waterproofing materials are used in various applications, including residential renovations, repairs, and large-scale construction projects [22][23][24] - The company is focusing on improving its service offerings to differentiate itself from competitors, particularly in the U.S. market [48][49] 8. Financial Management - The company is actively working to reduce accounts receivable and improve cash flow, with a focus on converting inventory into cash [20][39] Other Important Content - The company is optimistic about its ability to navigate the current market challenges and believes that its strategic transformation will position it well for future growth [34][35] - The management emphasized the importance of maintaining a customer-centric approach and enhancing service quality to build long-term relationships with clients [48][49]

Monetary Policy Actions - The central bank will issue 60 billion yuan in central bank bills in the Hong Kong market, aimed at tightening offshore RMB liquidity and stabilizing the exchange rate[2] - This issuance is part of a broader strategy to prevent excessive depreciation expectations of the RMB and to signal a commitment to maintaining market order[2] Exchange Rate Dynamics - Recent fluctuations in the RMB have increased, with the onshore RMB breaching the 7.3 mark on January 3, raising market concerns[3] - The depreciation pressure on the RMB is influenced by the strengthening of the US dollar, driven by concerns over US tariffs and changing interest rate expectations[3] Future Outlook - The RMB's exchange rate flexibility is expected to increase by 2025, with a higher tolerance for depreciation while still fluctuating around a reasonable equilibrium level[4] - In the short term, the RMB may have further downward space, but risks in the exchange market remain limited due to stable domestic economic fundamentals[5] Regulatory Measures - The regulatory authorities are prepared to intervene in the exchange market if there are significant deviations in the RMB's exchange rate from fundamental values[5] - Various policy tools may be employed, including adjusting the macro-prudential parameters for cross-border financing and foreign exchange reserve requirements, to guide market expectations and mitigate risks[5]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In December 2024, the CPI year-on-year growth rate was 0.1%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month[1] - The food CPI turned negative at -0.5% year-on-year, significantly down 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, primarily due to falling prices of vegetables, fruits, and pork[4] - The overall CPI decline was influenced by a high base from the previous year, with non-food prices remaining stable and showing a slight increase compared to the previous month[3] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The PPI year-on-year decline was 2.3%, narrowing by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, attributed to a lower base effect[1] - December PPI saw a month-on-month decrease of 0.1%, contrasting with a 0.1% increase in the previous month, indicating weakening marginal trends[8] - The decline in coal prices and reduced momentum in steel and non-ferrous metal prices contributed to the overall PPI weakness, with the PPI for durable consumer goods also declining[9] Group 3: Economic Outlook - In January 2025, the CPI is expected to rise to around 1.0% due to concentrated consumer demand ahead of the Spring Festival[2] - The PPI year-on-year decline is projected to narrow to approximately -2.1% in January 2025, supported by a lower base and increased growth policies[10] - The overall economic recovery and stabilization of the real estate market will be crucial for improving consumer confidence and demand in 2025[6]