1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, the stock indices fluctuated within a narrow range. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 181.55 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.84 billion yuan from the previous day. Since late June, some stocks have had significant gains, leading to profit - taking needs. The stock indices need a short - term consolidation phase. The recent rebound of the stock indices is mainly driven by policy expectations, and the market sentiment is generally optimistic. Domestic policies have boosted the price and profit recovery expectations of related industries, and the official start of the Yarlung Zangbo River hydropower project has increased the expectation of policy support. Currently, the trading volume of the stock market is at a high level, indicating that investors' risk appetite is high. In general, the stock indices will be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term. [4] - The implied volatility of options has rebounded. Considering the upward trend of the stock indices, investors can continue to hold bull spreads or ratio spreads for a mild bullish view. [4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Option Indicators - On July 25, 2025, the 50ETF fell 0.58% to 2.916; the 300ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) fell 0.52% to 4.203; the 300ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) fell 0.50% to 4.338; the CSI 300 Index fell 0.53% to 4127.16; the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.08% to 6706.61; the 500ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) rose 0.03% to 6.365; the 500ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) fell 0.08% to 2.543; the GEM ETF fell 0.30% to 2.318; the Shenzhen 100ETF fell 0.48% to 2.932; the SSE 50 Index fell 0.60% to 2795.51; the Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF rose 2.12% to 1.11; the E Fund Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF rose 2.08% to 1.08. [6] - The trading volume PCR and position PCR of various options changed compared to the previous trading day. For example, the trading volume PCR of the SSE 50ETF option was 83.28 (89.38 the previous day), and the position PCR was 97.93 (108.57 the previous day). [7] - The implied volatility of the at - the - money options in August 2025 and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying assets of various options were provided. For example, the implied volatility of the at - the - money options of the SSE 50ETF option was 15.45%, and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying asset was 8.12%. [8] 3.2 Relevant Charts - **SSE 50ETF Option**: Charts include the SSE 50ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and implied volatility of at - the - money options for different terms. [10][12][14] - **SSE 300ETF Option**: Charts cover the SSE 300ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and implied volatility of at - the - money options for different terms. [21] - **SZSE 300ETF Option**: Charts involve the SZSE 300ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and implied volatility of at - the - money options for different terms. [24] - **CSI 300 Index Option**: Charts include the CSI 300 index trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and implied volatility of at - the - money options for different terms. [37] - **CSI 1000 Index Option**: Charts cover the CSI 1000 index trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and implied volatility of at - the - money options for different terms. [50] - **SSE 500ETF Option**: Charts involve the SSE 500ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and implied volatility of at - the - money options for different terms. [63] - **SZSE 500ETF Option**: Charts include the SZSE 500ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and implied volatility of at - the - money options for different terms. [76] - **GEM ETF Option**: Charts cover the GEM ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and implied volatility of at - the - money options for different terms. [90] - **Shenzhen 100ETF Option**: Charts involve the Shenzhen 100ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and implied volatility of at - the - money options for different terms. [103] - **SSE 50 Index Option**: Charts include the SSE 50 index trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and implied volatility of at - the - money options for different terms. [116] - **Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF Option**: Charts cover the Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and implied volatility of at - the - money options for different terms. [129] - **E Fund Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF Option**: Charts involve the E Fund Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and implied volatility of at - the - money options for different terms. [132]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract price of rebar oscillated upwards with a daily increase of 2.32%, and the volume and open interest expanded. With both supply and demand increasing, the fundamentals of rebar have not improved substantially. The relatively positive factor is the low inventory level, with few real - world contradictions. Coupled with the strong cost support from raw materials, it is expected that the rebar price will continue to oscillate at a high level. Attention should be paid to domestic policies [4]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil strengthened, with a daily increase of 1.98%, and the volume and open interest expanded. Currently, both the supply and demand of hot - rolled coil have weakened, and the fundamentals have weakened again. There is a slight inventory build - up, but the overall contradiction is not significant. The strong raw materials boost market sentiment. It is expected that the hot - rolled coil price will maintain a high - level oscillating trend. Attention should be paid to overseas risks [4]. - The main contract price of iron ore oscillated weakly, with a daily decline of 1.11%. The volume increased while the open interest decreased. Currently, market sentiment has stabilized. Coupled with the suppression of high coking coal prices, the iron ore price has fallen from its high level. However, with supply being weak and demand being strong, the fundamentals of iron ore are still acceptable, and the short - term downward space is limited. It is expected that the iron ore price will continue to oscillate and consolidate at a high level. Attention should be paid to the shipping situation of miners [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - In the first half of 2025, the national general public budget expenditure was 1.41271 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. The expenditure on social security and employment increased by 9.2% year - on - year, science and technology expenditure increased by 9.1% year - on - year, education expenditure increased by 5.9% year - on - year, and health expenditure increased by 4.3% year - on - year. The national general public budget revenue was 1.15566 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3%. National tax revenue was 929.15 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.2%, and non - tax revenue was 226.51 billion yuan, an increase of 3.7% [6]. - The National Development and Reform Commission is promoting large - scale equipment renewal and consumer goods trade - ins. The "Two New" policy system and working mechanism are continuously improving. The State Council has issued an action plan, and the National Development and Reform Commission has issued support measures and expansion policies, and established an inter - ministerial joint meeting system [7]. - In the second quarter of 2025, FMG's iron ore production was 5.44 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7%. The annual production in fiscal year 2025 reached 201 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6%. The shipping volume in the second quarter was 5.52 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3%. The annual shipping volume in fiscal year 2025 reached 198 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4%. The shipping target for fiscal year 2026 is 195 - 205 million tons [8]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,400 yuan, 3,360 yuan, and 3,463 yuan respectively; the spot prices of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,470 yuan, 3,440 yuan, and 3,514 yuan respectively. The price of Tangshan billet was 3,130 yuan, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2,140 yuan. The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar was 70 yuan, and the spread between rebar and scrap was 1,260 yuan [9]. - The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 784 yuan, and the price of Tangshan iron concentrate was 748 yuan. The ocean freight from Australia was 10.40 yuan, and from Brazil was 24.18 yuan. The SGX swap price (current month) was 100.01 yuan, and the Platts Index (CFR, 62%) was 104.50 yuan [9]. 3.3 Futures Market | Variety | Active Contract | Closing Price | Increase/Decrease (%) | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Open Interest Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | - | 3,356 | 2.32 | 3,358 | 3,288 | 2,878,137 | 344,884 | 1,998,652 | 92,300 | | Hot - rolled Coil | - | 3,507 | 1.98 | 3,508 | 3,452 | 995,111 | 142,246 | 1,554,563 | 46,781 | | Iron Ore | - | 802.5 | - 1.11 | 815.5 | 790.0 | 533,058 | 134,404 | 528,991 | - 33,844 | [11] 3.4 Relevant Charts - The report presents various charts related to steel and iron ore inventories, including weekly changes in rebar and hot - rolled coil inventories, total inventories of rebar and hot - rolled coil (steel mills + social inventory), national 45 - port iron ore inventories, 247 - steel mill iron ore inventories, and domestic mine iron concentrate inventories [13][14][16]. - Charts on steel mill production conditions are also included, such as the blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate of 247 sample steel mills, the proportion of profitable steel mills among 247 steel mills, the operating rate of 87 independent electric furnaces, and the profit and loss situation of 75 building material independent electric arc furnace steel mills [27][29][32]. 3.5后市研判 - Rebar: Supply has increased with a weekly output increase of 2.90 tons, and there is room for further increase. Demand has improved with a weekly apparent demand increase of 10.41 tons, mainly due to speculative demand. However, both supply and demand are still at low levels in recent years, and the sustainability of demand improvement is weak. With low inventory and strong raw material cost support, the rebar price is expected to continue to operate at a high level. Attention should be paid to policy changes [35]. - Hot - rolled Coil: Both supply and demand have weakened. The weekly output has decreased by 3.65 tons, and the weekly apparent demand has decreased by 8.55 tons. Although high - frequency trading is good due to speculative demand, and downstream cold - rolled production is high, the narrowing internal - external price spread and potential tariff disturbances may lead to overseas demand risks. The price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation. Attention should be paid to overseas risks [36]. - Iron Ore: The terminal consumption of iron ore has declined slightly, but the demand is still resilient due to the good profitability of steel mills. The arrival at domestic ports has decreased, and the short - term overseas supply is low. However, the shipping of overseas miners is increasing, and the domestic supply is also stable with a slight increase. With stable market sentiment and the suppression of high coking coal prices, the iron ore price has fallen from its high level. It is expected to continue to oscillate and consolidate at a high level. Attention should be paid to the shipping situation of miners [37].

Group 1: Report Core View - Hot-rolled coil supply and demand have both weakened, with the fundamentals deteriorating again and a slight inventory build-up. However, the overall contradiction is not significant, and strong raw materials are boosting market sentiment. It is expected that hot-rolled coil prices will maintain a high-level oscillating trend, and attention should be paid to overseas risks [7] Group 2: Supply - The weekly production of hot-rolled coils was 3.1749 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 36,500 tons, and a month-on-month decrease of 97,500 tons. The supply continued to contract but remained at a relatively high level for the year [2] - The blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90.81%, a week-on-week decrease of 0.08 percentage points and a month-on-month decrease of 0.02 percentage points [2] Group 3: Demand - The apparent weekly demand for hot-rolled coils was 3.1524 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 85,500 tons and a month-on-month decrease of 110,100 tons [2] - The weekly production of cold-rolled coils was 869,600 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 500 tons and a month-on-month decrease of 11,000 tons [2] Group 4: Inventory - The total inventory of hot-rolled coils was 3.4516 million tons, a decrease of 850,000 tons [2] - The in-plant inventory was 780,000 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 2,200 tons and a month-on-month decrease of 178,100 tons [2] - The social inventory was 2.6716 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 42,200 tons and a month-on-month decrease of 671,900 tons [2]

| 服务国家 | 走向世界 | | 诚信至上 | 合规经营 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 知行合一 | 专业敬业 | CONNECT CONSULTION CHARDING CALL PRODUCT COLL AND WANT CHOOL CHANAL | 那道管理 | 开拓进取 | 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明：本人具有中国期货业协会授予的期货从业资格证 书，期货投资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤勉的职业态度， 独立、客观地出具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反映了本人的 研究观点。本人不会因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观点而直 接或间接接收到任何形式的报酬。 本周值 环比变化 上月末值 本月变化 同期值 同期变化 45港铁矿石库存 13,790.38 5.17 13,930.23 -139.85 15,279.94 -1,489.56 247家钢厂进口矿库存 8,885.22 63.06 8,847.47 37.75 9,2 ...

本周值 环比变化 上月末值 本月变化 同期值 同期变化 周度产量 211.96 2.90 217.84 -5.88 216.69 -4.73 高炉产能利用率（%） 90.81 -0.08 90.83 -0.02 89.61 1.20 表观需求量 216.58 10.41 219.91 -3.33 227.02 -10.44 钢联建材成交周均值 11.41 2.04 9.87 1.54 10.33 1.08 总库存 538.64 -4.62 549.00 -10.36 760.24 -221.60 厂内库存 165.67 -7.43 185.60 -19.93 193.65 -27.98 社会库存 372.97 2.81 363.40 9.57 566.59 -193.62 螺纹钢周度数据（20250725） 供给 需求 库存 150 200 250 300 350 400 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 螺纹钢周产量 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 70 75 80 85 90 95 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 1 ...

7 月锰硅期现价格延续上涨态势，主力合约期价由月初最低 5576 元/吨震荡上行并突破 6000 元/ 吨整数关口，创下近 4 个月新高。相应的主流地区现货价格同样走强，内蒙古、宁夏地区现货价格 同期分别上涨 200 元/吨、290 元/吨，涨幅低于期货，基差有所走弱。 7 月权益市场与商品市场均大幅上涨，主要受益于"反内卷"政策的利好预期。不过，"反内卷"仅 是黑色金属上涨的触发因素，本轮上行具备产业和宏观层面的基础。具体来看，黑色产业在淡季的 矛盾累积有限，部分品种价格跌至边际成本附近。叠加"反内卷"引发市场对供给侧结构性改革预期， 品种低价与政策预期共同引燃了市场看多情绪，推动黑色金属触底回升。拉长周期看，与 2015— 2016 年的供给侧结构性改革不同，本轮过剩主要集中在汽车、光伏等终端制造业，"反内卷"对煤焦 钢等上游原料而言或构成潜在利空。在需求难有持续上行动能、供应相对过剩的背景下，锰硅反弹 空间或受限制，后续走势有待政策出台及执行力度的配合，同时需关注下游行业对原料涨价的承接 能力。 回归到锰硅产业格局来看，本轮黑色系上涨过程中双焦表现最强，为锰硅提供了成本端支撑。 得益于超跌修复及贸易环节 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided reports [1][5][6] 2. Core View of the Report - The report is bullish on both coking coal and coke in the short - term, medium - term, and intraday periods, suggesting a long - biased trading approach for both commodities [1][5][6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Coking Coal (JM) - **Price and Market Sentiment**: The latest quotation of Mongolian coking coal at the Ganqimaodu Port is 1030.0 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 8.42%. The market sentiment is optimistic, driving the main contract of coking coal to rise significantly [5] - **Industry Policy**: A document on coal mine production inspection and rectification of over - production coal mines was released on July 22, covering major coal - producing areas in China. However, the impact of this inspection in Shanxi, a major coking coal - producing area, needs further tracking as over - production has been curbed since 2024 [5] 3.2 Coke (J) - **Price and Market Sentiment**: The latest quotation of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port is 1320 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 8.20%, and at Qingdao Port is 1380 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 8.66%. The third round of price increases for coke has been initiated, and the market atmosphere is optimistic, with the main contract remaining strong [6] - **Industry Policy**: The anti - involution work in the coal industry is advancing, and the notice on coal mine production inspection is confirmed. However, over - production in Shanxi has been curbed since 2024 [6]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2) Report's Core View - The methanol 2509 contract is expected to maintain a moderately strong and volatile trend. In the short - term, it shows a moderately strong trend; in the medium - term, it is in a volatile state; and on the day, it also presents a moderately strong trend. The main reason is that under the improved macro - factors and the support of the continuous rebound of domestic coal futures prices, the bullish sentiment outweighs the weak supply - demand structure of methanol [1][5]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Trend - The methanol 2509 contract is moderately strong in the short - term, volatile in the medium - term, and moderately strong on the day, with an overall view of a moderately strong operation [1][5]. - On Thursday night, domestic methanol futures maintained a moderately strong and volatile trend, with the futures price rising slightly by 1.180% to 2494 yuan/ton, and it is expected to maintain this trend on Friday [5]. Driving Logic - Recently, the US and Japan reached a trade agreement, China and the US will hold an economic and trade meeting in Sweden from July 27th to 30th, and there are rumors that Europe and the US will also reach a tariff agreement. The risk appetite in the commodity market has significantly increased under the improved macro - factors [5]. - The continuous rebound of domestic coal futures prices supports the methanol market, overshadowing the weak supply - demand structure of methanol [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - Both Shanghai rubber and synthetic rubber are expected to run strongly, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday views being oscillatory and strong [1][5][7] Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Price Performance**: On Thursday night, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2509 contract maintained an oscillatory and strong trend, with the futures price rising 1.75% to 15405 yuan/ton [5] - **Driving Factors**: The improvement of macro factors such as trade agreements between the US and Japan, upcoming China - US economic and trade meetings, and rumored EU - US tariff agreements have increased the risk appetite in the commodity market. The military conflict between Thailand and Cambodia has raised concerns about supply disruptions in Southeast Asian rubber - producing areas [5] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Price Performance**: On Thursday night, the synthetic rubber futures 2509 contract maintained an oscillatory and strong trend, with the futures price rising 1.91% to 12285 yuan/ton [7] - **Driving Factors**: The improvement of macro factors has increased the risk appetite in the commodity market. The stabilization and strengthening of crude oil futures prices, along with the joint rise of Shanghai rubber and standard rubber futures, have led to the resonance of positive factors [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - The domestic crude oil futures contract 2509 is expected to run strongly, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends being oscillatory, oscillatory, and oscillatory - bullish respectively. The improvement of macro factors leads to a bullish trend, and although some major oil - producing countries plan to increase production in August, the negative impact is gradually digested, and the future space for further expansion of production is limited [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price and Trend - The domestic crude oil futures 2509 contract slightly rose 0.56% to 507.1 yuan/barrel in the night session on Thursday, and is expected to maintain an oscillatory - bullish trend on Friday [5]. 3.2 Time - cycle Views - Short - term (within one week): The trend of crude oil 2509 is oscillatory [1]. - Medium - term (two weeks to one month): The trend of crude oil 2509 is oscillatory [1]. - Intraday: The trend of crude oil 2509 is oscillatory - bullish [1][5]. 3.3 Core Logic - Macro factors have improved. The US and Japan reached a trade agreement, China and the US will hold an economic and trade meeting in Sweden from July 27th to 30th, and there are rumors that Europe and the US will also reach a tariff agreement, which has significantly increased the risk appetite of the commodity market [5]. - Although 8 major oil - producing countries in OPEC and non - OPEC decided to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, exceeding market expectations, the negative impact of the production increase is gradually digested, and the future space for further expansion of production is limited as the original production - increase plan of the oil - producing countries is gradually realized [5].