Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of TL2509 is oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the intraday view is weakly oscillating, with an overall view of oscillation. The core logic is that the monetary policy environment is relatively loose, but the possibility of a short - term interest rate cut is low [1]. - For the main bond futures varieties (TL, T, TF, TS), the intraday view is weakly oscillating, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillating. The short - term bond futures will mainly oscillate and consolidate. The reasons include the central bank's net withdrawal of liquidity this week, a tightening of market liquidity, a rise in market interest rates due to the easing of Sino - US economic and trade relations, limited upward space for market interest rates due to the anchoring effect of policy rates, the existence of insufficient domestic effective demand, the need for a loose monetary environment to support the economy in the second half of the year, an expected interest rate cut, and the unchanged LPR in July making a short - term interest rate cut less likely [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the variety TL2509, short - term (within one week) is oscillation, medium - term (two weeks to one month) is oscillation, intraday is weakly oscillating, and the overall view is oscillation. The core logic is that the monetary policy environment is loose, but the short - term possibility of an interest rate cut is low [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include TL, T, TF, TS. The intraday view is weakly oscillating, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillating. The central bank's net withdrawal of liquidity this week tightened market liquidity and raised market interest rates. The easing of Sino - US economic and trade relations led to a positive macro - economic outlook and a rise in market interest rates since July. The upward space for market interest rates is limited due to the policy rate anchor. There is still insufficient domestic effective demand, and a loose monetary environment is needed in the second half of the year, with an expected interest rate cut. However, the unchanged LPR in July makes a short - term interest rate cut less likely, so short - term bond futures will mainly oscillate and consolidate [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term view of the stock index futures market is optimistic, with short - term intraday being volatile and strong, and medium - term being on an upward trend. The reference view is an upward trend, mainly supported by positive policy expectations [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2509, the short - term trend is volatile, the medium - term is upward, the intraday trend is volatile and strong, and the reference view is an upward trend. The core logic is that the positive policy expectations provide strong support [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Regarding IF, IH, IC, and IM, the intraday view is volatile and strong, the medium - term view is upward, and the reference view is an upward trend. The core logic is that the stock indexes oscillated and rose yesterday. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 1873.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 24.5 billion yuan from the previous day. The current high trading volume indicates investors' positive risk preference. The rebound momentum of the stock index comes from positive policy expectations, and the anti - involution policy helps drive the performance repair expectations of related industries. The market liquidity was loose at the beginning of July, which increased the stock index valuation. After the continuous rebound since June, some stocks have risen significantly. With the tightening of market liquidity recently, the capital market may enter a rotation state. Attention should be paid to domestic policy guidance [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the reports. 2. Report Core Views - **Gold**: Short - term outlook is bearish, with short - term decline, medium - term consolidation, and intraday consolidation with a weak bias. The key factor is that the gradual reaching of US foreign tariff agreements leads to a rise in market risk appetite, which is negative for gold prices [1][3]. - **Copper**: Short - term outlook is bullish, with short - term and medium - term increases, and intraday consolidation with a strong bias. After the market digests the impact of US tariffs, the improvement of domestic and foreign macro - economies boosts copper prices [1][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold (AU) - **Price Performance**: This week, the gold price first rose and then fell. New York gold once approached the $3450 mark, and faced strong technical resistance at this level in the second quarter. Yesterday, it maintained a weak trend and dropped to the $3350 mark [3]. - **Market News**: The EU and the US are about to reach a trade agreement with a 15% tariff on European imports. Trump announced a trade agreement with Japan on the 22nd, with a 15% tariff on Japan and $550 billion of Japanese investment in the US. China's Vice - Premier He Lifeng will hold economic and trade talks with the US in Sweden from July 27th to 30th. As key countries reach or are close to reaching agreements with the US, market uncertainty decreases, and risk appetite rises, which is negative for gold [3]. - **Outlook**: It is expected that the gold price will maintain a weak trend [3]. Copper (CU) - **Price Performance**: Yesterday, the copper price first rose and then fell. Technically, LME copper faces some pressure at the $10,000 mark, and SHFE copper faces pressure at the 80,000 yuan mark [4]. - **Macro - level**: Overseas, the implementation of the US foreign tariff policy has led to a recovery in market risk appetite. In China, the short - term bullish sentiment has cooled, and the willingness of bulls to close positions has increased [4]. - **Industry - level**: The inventory of electrolytic copper is low in China and high abroad, the futures price is strong in China and weak abroad. It is expected that the SHFE - LME ratio will continue to strengthen, and import profits will widen. Short - term attention should be paid to the long - short game at the 80,000 - yuan mark, and the support of the 10 - day moving average can be watched below [4].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore price is expected to maintain a volatile adjustment, and attention should be paid to the support level of MA10. The supply - demand pattern is changing, and the price is adjusting with fluctuations [1]. - The optimistic sentiment is weakening, the high - valued iron ore price is falling with fluctuations, but the fundamentals are still acceptable under the situation of weak supply and strong demand, and the downward space may be limited. The performance of finished steel should be monitored [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For iron ore 2509, the short - term and medium - term trends are both volatile, and the intraday trend is slightly bullish. The core logic is that the supply - demand pattern is changing, and the price is adjusting with fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the support at the MA10 line [1]. Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has changed. Steel mill production is weakly stable, and the terminal consumption of ore has slightly declined. However, the profitability of steel mills is good, and the demand for ore has certain resilience, which supports the price. - The arrival of ore at domestic ports has dropped significantly, while the shipment of overseas miners has started to rise. According to the shipping schedule, the domestic arrival will still decrease, and the short - term supply of overseas ore is difficult to increase. The domestic ore production is rising steadily, and the overall supply remains at a relatively low level [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall view of soybean meal futures prices is influenced by market sentiment and fluctuates significantly. In the short - term, it may turn to a volatile trend, while the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all bullish with a volatile bias [5]. - Palm oil futures prices are boosted by the slight rebound of international oil prices and the oil - meal arbitrage. In the short - term, it benefits from biodiesel demand and international crude oil prices, and the intraday and medium - term views are bullish with a volatile bias [8]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Time - frame Views**: Short - term: bullish; Medium - term: bullish; Intraday: bullish with a volatile bias; Reference view: bullish with a volatile bias [5][7] - **Core Logic**: After the concentrated exit of long - position funds, the futures price dropped significantly. The market is waiting for the result of the US trade negotiations with other countries, which will affect the export prospects of US soybeans. Before the final result is announced, the US soybean futures price will remain volatile. The price of soybean meal futures is more affected by market sentiment and fluctuates violently. In the short - term, it may turn to a volatile trend [5]. Palm Oil (P) - **Time - frame Views**: Short - term: bullish with a volatile bias; Medium - term: volatile; Intraday: bullish with a volatile bias; Reference view: bullish with a volatile bias [7][8] - **Core Logic**: The slight rebound of international oil prices boosts the entire oil and fat sector. As the variety with the strongest energy attribute in the oil and fat sector, palm oil is the first to be affected and shows strength. In addition, it is favored by funds due to the oil - meal arbitrage. In the short - term, it benefits from biodiesel demand and international crude oil prices. Attention should also be paid to the possible adverse impact of the Indonesian fire on palm oil production in some areas [8]. Other Information - **Time Cycle Definition**: Short - term is within one week; Medium - term is from two weeks to one month (based on the previous day's night - session closing price) [7] - **Calculation of Price Fluctuation**: For varieties with night - session trading, the starting price is the night - session closing price; for those without, it is the previous day's closing price. The ending price is the day - session closing price of the current day. The definition of price trends is: a decline of more than 1% is considered weak; a decline of 0 - 1% is considered weakly volatile; an increase of 0 - 1% is considered strongly volatile; an increase of more than 1% is considered strong. The views of strongly/weakly volatile only apply to intraday views, and no distinction is made between short - term and medium - term [2][3][4]

◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2510 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线支撑 | 基本面弱稳运行，钢价高位震荡 | 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 7 月 25 日） 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 螺纹钢供需格局变化不大，螺纹周产量小幅回升，考虑到品种吨钢利润较好，后续仍有增量空 间，低供应格局难续。与此同时，螺纹需求同样改善，高频需求指标均回升，多因投机需求放量所 致，但仍是近年来同期低位，且下游未见好转，淡季需求特征尚存。目前来看，供需双增局面下螺 纹钢基本面并无 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Today, all treasury bond futures fluctuated and pulled back. This week, the central bank's open - market operations led to a net withdrawal of liquidity, tightening the loose state of market liquidity and causing market interest rates to rise. Since July, due to the easing of Sino - US economic and trade relations and positive macro - economic expectations, market interest rates have gradually increased. However, considering the anchoring effect of policy rates, the room for further upward movement of market interest rates is limited. On the other hand, the problem of insufficient domestic effective demand still exists, and a relatively loose monetary environment is still needed to support the economy in the second half of the year, so there is still an expectation of interest rate cuts. But the LPR remained unchanged in July, and the possibility of an interest rate cut in the short term is low. In general, treasury bond futures will mainly fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [4] Group 3: Summary of Related Catalogs 1. Industry News and Related Charts - On July 24, 2025, the central bank announced that on July 25, it will conduct 400 billion yuan of 1 - year MLF operations in a fixed - quantity, interest - rate tender, and multiple - price winning bid manner. - On July 24, 2025, the central bank conducted 331 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at an operating interest rate of 1.40% [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The document does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoint - On July 24, soybeans declined significantly while oils and fats were generally strong. Soybean No. 1 futures prices fluctuated weakly, relying on the 5 - day moving average. Soybean No. 2 futures prices dropped by over 1.5%. Soybean meal futures prices fell sharply by over 2%, and rapeseed meal futures prices dropped by over 2.6%. Among oils and fats, soybean oil futures prices rose by over 1%, palm oil futures prices rose by over 1.3%, and rapeseed oil futures prices fluctuated weakly [4]. - In the soybean market, with the departure of long - position funds, futures prices dropped significantly. The market is waiting for the result of US trade negotiations, which will affect US soybean export prospects. In the short term, the market is more volatile, but the rebound trend remains intact. In the oil and fat market, palm oil led the rise, followed by soybean oil. Energy attributes and oil - meal arbitrage boosted the market [5][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics - **Brazilian soybean exports**: In July 2025, Brazil's soybean export volume is estimated to be 12.11 million tons, lower than the previous estimate. It is 26% higher than the same period last year but 10% lower than June. From July 20 - 26, the weekly export volume increased by 9.9% [8]. - **US soybean yield forecast**: South American crop expert Michael Cordonnier maintained the 2025 US soybean yield forecast at 52.5 bushels per acre. The USDA predicted the 2025/26 US soybean yield at 52.5 bushels per acre, with a production of 4.335 billion bushels [8]. - **Paraguayan soybean exports**: In the first half of 2025, Paraguay's soybean export volume was 4.106112 million tons, a 25.1% decrease from the same period last year. The export value decreased by 30.5%. Due to drought, the 2025 production is expected to decline [9]. - **Indonesian palm oil production and trade**: In May 2025, Indonesia's crude palm oil production decreased by 7.01% to 4.165 million tons. Domestic consumption decreased by 3.4%, and exports increased by 49.75%. From January - May, the production was about 2.08% higher than the same period in 2024 [10]. - **US - Indonesia - Malaysia palm oil trade**: After the US reduced the tariff on Indonesia to 19%, Indonesia is expected to maintain its dominant position in the US palm oil market. Malaysia is still negotiating with the US, facing a 25% tariff [12]. 2. Spot Market Prices - The prices of imported second - class soybeans in Dalian and the average soybean price remained unchanged. The prices of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang and the average price decreased. The prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil in relevant regions increased [13][15]. 3. Oil Mill Pressing Profits - The pressing profits of oil mills vary by location and the type of soybeans used (domestic or imported). For example, in Heilongjiang, the profit is 3.40 yuan/ton, while in Dalian (domestic), it is - 219.60 yuan/ton [16]. 4. Related Charts - The document mentions multiple charts including soybean port inventory, soybean盘面压榨利润, soybean oil port inventory, palm oil port inventory, soybean oil basis, and palm oil basis, but no specific chart analysis content is provided [17][19][21][23][25][27].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2509 contract is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger pattern due to enhanced domestic macro - atmosphere and potential threats to rubber supply from the military conflict in Thailand and Cambodia [4]. - The domestic methanol futures 2509 contract is likely to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend as the sharp rise in domestic coal futures offsets the weak supply - demand fundamentals of methanol [4]. - Domestic and foreign crude oil futures prices are expected to maintain a volatile and stable trend as the negative impact of production increase fades, the planned production increase is realized, and it is the peak oil - consumption season in the Northern Hemisphere [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Rubber**: As of July 20, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 634,600 tons, a decrease of 0.28%. The capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire and full - steel tire sample enterprises increased. In June 2025, the inventory warning index of Chinese auto dealers was 56.6%. From January to June 2025, China's auto production and sales exceeded 15 million for the first time, with new energy vehicle production and sales growing significantly [8][9]. - **Methanol**: As of the week of July 11, 2025, the domestic methanol average开工率 was 72.09%, with significant week - on - week and month - on - month declines. The production, inventories, and the开工 rates of related downstream products showed various changes [10][11]. - **Crude Oil**: As of the week of July 11, 2025, the number of active drilling rigs in the US decreased, and the commercial crude oil inventory decreased significantly. The refinery operating rate was 93.9%. The non - commercial net long positions of WTI crude oil decreased, while those of Brent crude oil increased [13][14]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change | Futures Main Contract | Change | Basis | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Shanghai Rubber | 15,150 yuan/ton | +200 yuan/ton | 15,245 yuan/ton | +260 yuan/ton | - 95 yuan/ton | - 60 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,480 yuan/ton | +30 yuan/ton | 2,480 yuan/ton | +69 yuan/ton | 0 yuan/ton | - 39 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 478.6 yuan/barrel | - 0.2 yuan/barrel | 508.9 yuan/barrel | +5.2 yuan/barrel | - 30.3 yuan/barrel | - 5.4 yuan/barrel | [16] 3.3 Related Charts - **Rubber**: Charts include rubber basis, 9 - 1 month spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, full - steel tire and semi - steel tire opening rate trends [17][21][26]. - **Methanol**: Charts cover methanol basis, 9 - 1 month spread, domestic port inventory, inland social inventory, methanol - to - olefin opening rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [29][33][39]. - **Crude Oil**: Charts involve crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US crude oil commercial inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI and Brent crude oil net position changes [42][44][52].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract price of rebar oscillated and rebounded with a daily increase of 0.34%, and the volume and open interest shrank. Currently, both supply and demand of rebar have increased, but the fundamentals have not improved substantially. The relatively positive factor is the low inventory level, and the real - world contradictions are not significant. Coupled with the cost support from strong raw materials, it is expected that the rebar price will continue to operate at a high level. Attention should be paid to policy changes [4]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil oscillated at a high level with a daily increase of 0.35%, the volume decreased and the open interest increased. Currently, both supply and demand of hot - rolled coil have weakened, the fundamentals have weakened again, and the inventory has slightly increased. However, the overall contradictions are not significant, and the strong raw materials have boosted market sentiment. It is expected that the hot - rolled coil price will maintain a high - level oscillating operation. Attention should be paid to overseas risks [4]. - The main contract price of iron ore oscillated, with a daily decline of 0.55%, and the volume and open interest shrank. Currently, the optimistic sentiment has weakened, and the over - valued iron ore price has declined. However, in the situation of weak supply and increasing demand, the fundamentals of iron ore are still acceptable, and the downward space may be limited. It is expected that the iron ore price will shift to a high - level oscillating adjustment. Attention should be paid to the performance of finished products [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Industry Dynamics - The State Administration for Market Regulation is focusing on rectifying the "involution - style" competition in the quality field. It has exposed a number of typical cases of illegal competition in the quality field. These malicious competition behaviors have led to a decline in overall product quality, directly affecting consumer rights and damaging the long - term healthy development of the industry [6]. - From July 1 - 20, the retail sales of the national passenger car market reached 978,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 11% and a month - on - month decrease of 12%. The cumulative retail sales this year reached 11.88 million units, a year - on - year increase of 11%. The wholesale volume of national passenger car manufacturers was 960,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 22% and a month - on - month decrease of 12%. The cumulative wholesale volume this year was 14.24 million units, a year - on - year increase of 13%. For new energy vehicles, the retail sales of the national passenger car new energy market were 537,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 23% and a month - on - month decrease of 12%. The retail penetration rate was 54.9%. The cumulative retail sales this year were 6.006 million units, a year - on - year increase of 32%. The wholesale volume of national passenger car manufacturers' new energy vehicles was 514,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 25% and a month - on - month decrease of 12%. The wholesale penetration rate was 53.6%, and the cumulative wholesale volume this year was 6.962 million units, a year - on - year increase of 36% [7]. - In mid - July 2025, key steel enterprises produced 21.41 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 2.141 million tons, a daily - output month - on - month increase of 2.1%; 19.44 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 194,400 tons, a daily - output month - on - month increase of 0.6%; and 20.8 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 208,000 tons, a daily - output month - on - month increase of 4.6% [8]. Spot Market - The spot price of rebar (HRB400E, 20mm) in Shanghai was 3,350 yuan, in Tianjin was 3,340 yuan, and the national average price was 3,442 yuan. The spot price of hot - rolled coil (Shanghai, 4.75mm) in Shanghai was 3,470 yuan, in Tianjin was 3,410 yuan, and the national average price was 3,489 yuan. The price of Tangshan steel billet (Q235) was 3,110 yuan, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap (≥6mm) was 2,140 yuan. The volume - to - rebar price difference was 120 yuan, and the rebar - to - scrap price difference was 1,210 yuan [9]. - The price of 61.5% PB powder (Shandong port) was 786 yuan, the price of Tangshan iron concentrate powder (wet basis) was 748 yuan, the Australian sea freight was 9.87 yuan, the Brazilian sea freight was 23.59 yuan, the SGX swap (current month) was 99.85 yuan, and the Platts Index (CFR, 62%) was 104.00 yuan [9]. Futures Market - The closing price of the active rebar contract was 3,294 yuan, with a change rate of 0.34%, the highest price was 3,330 yuan, the lowest price was 3,249 yuan, the trading volume was 2,533,253 lots, the volume difference was - 314,207 lots, the open interest was 1,906,352 lots, and the open - interest difference was - 16,346 lots [11]. - The closing price of the active hot - rolled coil contract was 3,456 yuan, with a change rate of 0.35%, the highest price was 3,484 yuan, the lowest price was 3,406 yuan, the trading volume was 852,865 lots, the volume difference was - 233,709 lots, the open interest was 1,507,782 lots, and the open - interest difference was 12,461 lots [11]. - The closing price of the active iron ore contract was 811.0 yuan, with a change rate of - 0.55%, the highest price was 822.5 yuan, the lowest price was 803.5 yuan, the trading volume was 398,654 lots, the volume difference was - 86,357 lots, the open interest was 562,835 lots, and the open - interest difference was - 17,104 lots [11]. Related Charts - The report provides various charts related to steel and iron ore inventories, including weekly changes in rebar and hot - rolled coil inventories, total inventories (steel mills + social inventory), national 45 - port iron ore inventories, 247 - steel - mill iron ore inventories, domestic mine iron concentrate powder inventories, and steel - mill production - related charts such as blast furnace operating rates, capacity utilization rates, and the proportion of profitable steel mills [13][18][29] 后市研判 - For rebar, both supply and demand have increased. The weekly output of rebar increased by 29,000 tons month - on - month, and the demand improved with a week - on - week increase in weekly apparent demand of 104,100 tons. However, both supply and demand are still at relatively low levels in recent years, and the sustainability of demand improvement is weak. It is expected that the rebar price will continue to operate at a high level, and attention should be paid to policy changes [33]. - For hot - rolled coil, both supply and demand have weakened. The weekly output decreased by 36,500 tons month - on - month, and the weekly apparent demand decreased by 85,500 tons. Although the high - frequency trading volume is acceptable, the external risks may ferment. It is expected that the hot - rolled coil price will maintain a high - level oscillating operation, and attention should be paid to overseas risks [34]. - For iron ore, the supply - demand pattern has improved. The terminal consumption of iron ore has increased, and the supply has decreased. The optimistic sentiment has weakened, and the over - valued iron ore price has declined. However, the downward space may be limited. It is expected that the iron ore price will shift to a high - level oscillating adjustment, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished products [35].