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宝城期货螺纹钢早报(2025年11月7日)-20251107
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-11-07 01:38
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel price of rebar continues to be under pressure and is expected to continue the trend of oscillating to find the bottom, with the cost still providing support, and attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2601, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends are oscillating, oscillating, and oscillating weakly respectively. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line, and the core logic is that the industrial contradictions are unresolved and the steel price is oscillating to find the bottom [2] 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The supply and demand of rebar have both weakened. The output has slightly declined, the inventory reduction is limited, and the supply pressure has not been alleviated. At the same time, the demand has weakened as expected, with high - frequency indicators falling and remaining at a low level in recent years. As the off - season approaches, the demand is likely to weaken, continuing to put pressure on the steel price. Overall, the industrial contradictions are unresolved under the situation of weak supply and demand, and the steel price is under pressure [3]
宝城期货动力煤早报(2025年11月7日)-20251107
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-11-07 01:37
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report suggests that the domestic thermal coal price is stabilizing, and the coastal terminal restocking demand is driving the port thermal coal market to operate strongly. The market is expected to continue to be influenced by the safety inspection situation in the main production areas [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Price and Market Conditions - The domestic thermal coal price is stabilizing, but the optimistic atmosphere in the coal market has not been reversed. There are still many coal mines raising prices, and traders' purchasing enthusiasm is good [5]. 3.2 Supply Side - Although the import volume of foreign trade coal is stable, more coal mines will stop production after completing their production targets at the end of the month. In addition, the Central Safety Production Inspection and Inspection Team will enter the main production areas in November, leading to market expectations of supply contraction at the end of the year, which supports the coal price to operate strongly [5]. 3.3 Demand Side - Recently, many places in the north have continued to cool down and have entered the winter mode ahead of schedule. The demand in southern coastal cities has declined in the off - season after the cooling in October. However, the coal inventory level of coastal power plants is low, and there is still restocking demand, which will support the coal market atmosphere [5]. 3.4 Inventory - As of October 31, the total coal inventory of 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 23.169 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 800,000 tons and 2.729 million tons lower than the same period last year. The potential restocking demand of downstream users supports the port coal price [5].
宝城期货铁矿石早报(2025年11月7日)-20251107
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-11-07 01:37
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term and intraday view of Iron Ore 2601 is oscillating weakly, and the medium - term view is oscillating. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the MA5 line. The core logic is that the supply - demand pattern has weakened, and the ore price is under pressure [2]. - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore continues to weaken, with a significant increase in inventory. Under the disturbance of production restrictions, steel mill production weakens, the terminal consumption of ore continues to decline, and the weak demand in the steel market suppresses the ore price. The supply pressure continues to increase, and the ore price is under pressure to run weakly [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For Iron Ore 2601, the short - term view is oscillating weakly, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the intraday view is oscillating weakly. The reference view is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line, and the core logic is the weakening supply - demand pattern and the ore price under pressure [2]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore continues to weaken, with a large inventory build - up. Steel mill production weakens under production restrictions, and ore terminal consumption declines. The weak demand in the steel market restrains the ore price. The arrival of ore at domestic ports has recovered as expected, and the overseas miners' shipments have declined but are still at a high level this year. The supply pressure continues to increase, and the ore price is under pressure [3].
宝城期货橡胶早报-20251107
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-11-07 01:36
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The short - term and intraday views of both Shanghai rubber (RU) 2601 and synthetic rubber (BR) 2601 are weak, and the medium - term view is oscillatory, with an overall outlook of weak operation [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Price Performance**: On Thursday night, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract maintained an oscillatory and stable trend, with the futures price slightly rising 0.57% to 15,035 yuan/ton, but the continued rise was blocked by the 10 - day moving average [5]. - **Core Logic**: After the meeting between the Chinese and US presidents in Busan, South Korea, the positive progress in economic and trade tariffs was slightly lower than market expectations. As the macro - positive sentiment faded, the driving force of macro factors weakened, and the market saw profit - taking. After the rubber market returned to being dominated by supply - demand fundamentals, the rubber price was under pressure. It is expected that the Shanghai rubber 2601 contract may maintain a weak trend on Friday [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Price Performance**: On Thursday night, the domestic synthetic rubber futures 2601 contract showed an oscillatory and stable trend, with the futures price slightly rising 0.34% to 10,230 yuan/ton, but there was resistance to continued rise [7]. - **Core Logic**: Similar to Shanghai rubber, after the meeting between the Chinese and US presidents, the positive progress in economic and trade tariffs was slightly lower than market expectations. As the macro - positive sentiment faded, the market shifted from "expectation - driven" to "reality - dominated", and investors' sentiment became cautious. It is expected that the domestic synthetic rubber futures 2601 contract may maintain a weak trend on Friday [7].
市场情绪回升,股指全面上涨
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-11-06 11:51
Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The stock market had a volume - increasing rebound, indicating a rise in market sentiment. However, the market is still in a stage of game between the fermentation rhythm of policy -利好 expectations and the profit - taking rhythm of funds. The Shanghai Composite Index is near the 4000 - point integer mark, and there is still a need for short - term shock consolidation of stock indices. [3] - In November, the incremental signals on the policy side weakened, and although external risk factors eased, uncertainties still remained, so the upward driving force of stock indices was limited. [3] - With the significant increase in the stock valuation, there is still a need for technical consolidation of stock indices. But the policy -利好 expectations strongly support the stock indices, and the downward space of stock indices is limited. In general, stock indices will mainly fluctuate within a range in the short term. [3] - Currently, the implied volatility of options is at a relatively low historical quantile level. Considering the long - term upward trend of stock indices, the idea of bull spreads or covered calls is maintained. [3] Summaries by Related Catalogs 1 Option Indicators - On November 6, 2025, 50ETF rose 1.27% to 3.190; 300ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) rose 1.48% to 4.805; 300ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) rose 1.54% to 4.956; the CSI 300 Index rose 1.43% to 4693.40; the CSI 1000 Index rose 1.17% to 7551.83; 500ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) rose 1.65% to 7.451; 500ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) rose 1.67% to 2.979; the GEM ETF rose 1.88% to 3.201; the Shenzhen 100ETF rose 1.82% to 3.590; the SSE 50 Index rose 1.22% to 3044.74; the STAR 50ETF rose 3.36% to 1.51; and the E Fund STAR 50ETF rose 3.39% to 1.46. [5] - The trading volume PCR and position PCR of various options on November 6, 2025, and their changes compared with the previous trading day are provided, including 50ETF options, SSE 300ETF options, SZSE 300ETF options, CSI 300 Index options, CSI 1000 Index options, SSE 500ETF options, SZSE 500ETF options, GEM ETF options, Shenzhen 100ETF options, SSE 50 Index options, STAR 50ETF options, and E Fund STAR 50ETF options. [6] - The implied volatility of at - the - money options in November 2025 and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying assets of various options are given, such as 50ETF options, SSE 300ETF options, SZSE 300ETF options, CSI 300 Index options, CSI 1000 Index options, SSE 500ETF options, SZSE 500ETF options, GEM ETF options, Shenzhen 100ETF options, SSE 50 Index options, STAR 50ETF options, and E Fund STAR 50ETF options. [7][8] 2 Related Charts - **SSE 50ETF Options**: Include charts of SSE 50ETF trends, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curves, and at - the - money implied volatility of various tenors. [9][11][13][17] - **SSE 300ETF Options**: Include charts of SSE 300ETF trends, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curves, and at - the - money implied volatility of various tenors. [20][22][24][30] - **SZSE 300ETF Options**: Include charts of SZSE 300ETF trends, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curves, and at - the - money implied volatility of various tenors. [33][35][37][41] - **CSI 300 Index Options**: Include charts of CSI 300 index trends, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curves, and at - the - money implied volatility of various tenors. [45] - **CSI 1000 Index Options**: Include charts of CSI 1000 index trends, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curves, and at - the - money implied volatility of various tenors. [47] - **SSE 500ETF Options**: Include charts of SSE 500ETF trends, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curves, and at - the - money implied volatility of various tenors. [61] - **SZSE 500ETF Options**: Include charts of SZSE 500ETF trends, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curves, and at - the - money implied volatility of various tenors. [74] - **GEM ETF Options**: Include charts of GEM ETF trends, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curves, and at - the - money implied volatility of various tenors. [87] - **Shenzhen 100ETF Options**: Include charts of Shenzhen 100ETF trends, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curves, and at - the - money implied volatility of various tenors. [100] - **SSE 50 Index Options**: Include charts of SSE 50 index trends, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curves, and at - the - money implied volatility of various tenors. [113] - **STAR 50ETF Options**: Include charts of STAR 50ETF trends, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curves, and at - the - money implied volatility of various tenors. [127] - **E Fund STAR 50ETF Options**: Include charts of E Fund STAR 50ETF trends, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curves, and at - the - money implied volatility of various tenors. [136]
多空僵持,煤焦高位震荡:煤焦日报-20251106
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-11-06 10:26
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - On November 6, 2025, the coke main contract closed at 1,776.5 yuan/ton, up 2.07% intraday. The position of the main contract was 38,200 lots, with a difference of -248 lots from the previous trading day. The coke supply stabilized while the demand declined, and the fundamentals weakened marginally. After the previous macro - positive factors were realized, the market sentiment cooled down, and the coke futures adjusted at a high level, running within the oscillation range since the end of July [6][34]. - On November 6, 2025, the coking coal main contract closed at 1,290.5 points, up 2.38% intraday. The position of the main contract was 674,603 lots, with a difference of +30,130 lots from the previous trading day. Recently, the supply - demand pattern of coking coal had no obvious change, and the upward driving force mainly came from the emotional support brought by anti - involution and the easing of Sino - US trade relations. As the macro - positive factors were realized, the long - short game in the market intensified, and the coking coal futures ran near the upper edge of the oscillation range. The subsequent focus was on the actual impact of safety supervision and anti - involution on coking coal supply [6][34]. Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. Industry News - In October 2025, the bond financing of the real estate industry was 51.24 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 76.9%. Affected by the low base in the same period of the previous year, the total bond financing of real estate enterprises in October increased significantly, with only 28.97 billion yuan in the same period of the previous year [8]. - On November 6, the online auction price of coking coal in the Lvliang Xiaoyi market increased slightly. The starting price of high - sulfur main coking coal in Xiaoyi was 1,220 yuan/ton, with 25,000 tons listed and all sold. The average transaction price was 1,366 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton compared with November 3 [9]. 2. Spot Market - For coke, the current price of Rizhao Port's quasi - first - class flat - closing coke was 1,620 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 3.18%, a monthly increase of 3.18%, an annual decrease of 4.14%, and a year - on - year decrease of 14.29%. The current price of Qingdao Port's quasi - first - class outbound coke was 1,570 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.64%, a monthly increase of 1.29%, an annual decrease of 3.09%, and a year - on - year decrease of 10.80% [10]. - For coking coal, the current price of Mongolian coking coal at the Ganqimaodu Port was 1,435 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 3.24%, a monthly increase of 3.24%, an annual increase of 21.61%, and a year - on - year decrease of 1.03%. The current price of Australian - produced coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1,670 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.60%, a monthly increase of 0.60%, an annual increase of 12.08%, and a year - on - year decrease of 1.18%. The current price of Shanxi - produced coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1,800 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 3.45%, a monthly increase of 3.45%, an annual increase of 17.65%, and a year - on - year increase of 2.27% [10]. 3. Futures Market - The closing price of the coke active contract was 1,776.5 yuan/ton, up 2.07%, with a maximum price of 1,785.0 yuan/ton, a minimum price of 1,746.5 yuan/ton, a trading volume of 18,410 lots, a volume difference of -697 lots, a position of 38,200 lots, and a position difference of -248 lots [13]. - The closing price of the coking coal active contract was 1,290.5 points, up 2.38%, with a maximum price of 1,294.5 points, a minimum price of 1,265.0 points, a trading volume of 915,849 lots, a volume difference of 107,901 lots, a position of 674,603 lots, and a position difference of 30,130 lots [13]. 4. Related Charts - The report presented various charts related to coke and coking coal inventories, including those of 230 independent coking plants, 247 steel - mill coking plants, ports, and total inventories, as well as other charts such as domestic steel - mill production, Shanghai terminal wire - rod procurement, and coking - plant and coal - washing - plant operation conditions [14][27][32] 5. Future Outlook - The analysis of coke and coking coal futures was consistent with the core views, emphasizing the current price, position changes, and the impact of supply - demand and macro - factors on the market, and suggesting to focus on the impact of safety supervision and anti - involution on coking coal supply [34]
铜铝日内上行
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-11-06 10:04
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: Today, Shanghai copper (SHFE Copper) oscillated upward, with the main contract price breaking through the 86,000 RMB mark, and the trading volume remained stable. The domestic macro - environment improved, leading to an upward trend in the non - ferrous sector and the stock index. The social inventory of electrolytic copper was 202,600 tons, a decrease of 3,400 tons from Monday. Technically, attention should be paid to the support at the 86,000 RMB mark [5]. - **Aluminum**: Shanghai aluminum (SHFE Aluminum) increased in volume and price, breaking through Monday's high. The domestic macro - environment improved, leading to an upward trend in the non - ferrous sector and the stock index. The strong performance of aluminum prices was partly due to the "anti - involution" expectation. At the industrial level, the inventory of downstream aluminum rods and mid - stream electrolytic aluminum decreased. Technically, attention should be paid to the support of the 5 - day moving average [6]. - **Nickel**: Shanghai nickel (SHFE Nickel) oscillated and rebounded, with the main contract price approaching the 120,000 RMB mark at the end of the session. The domestic macro - environment improved, leading to an upward trend in the non - ferrous sector and the stock index. The rebound of SHFE Nickel was weak due to significant industrial pressure. Technically, continuous attention should be paid to the long - short game at the 120,000 RMB mark [7]. 3. Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: On November 6th, the social inventory of electrolytic copper was 202,600 tons, a decrease of 3,400 tons from Monday [9]. - **Nickel**: On November 6th, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was in the range of 118,900 - 122,100 RMB/ton, with an average price of 120,500 RMB/ton, a decrease of 450 RMB/ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was in the range of 2,700 - 3,000 RMB/ton, with an average premium of 2,850 RMB/ton, an increase of 50 RMB/ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was in the range of - 150 - 300 RMB/ton [10]. 4. Related Charts - **Copper**: The report includes charts of copper basis, electrolytic copper domestic visible inventory (social inventory + bonded area inventory), LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, overseas copper exchange inventory, and SHFE warrant inventory [11][12][13]. - **Aluminum**: The report includes charts of aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, electrolytic aluminum domestic social inventory, electrolytic aluminum overseas exchange inventory (LME + COMEX), alumina inventory, and aluminum rod inventory [24][30][26]. - **Nickel**: The report includes charts of nickel basis, LME nickel cancelled warrant ratio, LME nickel trend, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [37][39][40].
市场情绪回暖,钢矿震荡企稳:钢材&铁矿石日报-20251106
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-11-06 10:04
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The main contract price of rebar fluctuated and stabilized, with a daily increase of 0.40%. Currently, rebar supply has declined, but demand has also decreased. In the situation of weak supply and demand, industrial contradictions remain unresolved, inventory reduction is limited, and steel prices continue to be under pressure. The relative positive factor is cost support. It is expected that the subsequent trend will continue to fluctuate and find the bottom. Pay attention to the production situation of steel mills [5]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil fluctuated, with a daily increase of 0.22%. Currently, the supply of hot - rolled coil has declined from a high level, but demand is also poor. In the situation of weak supply and demand, industrial contradictions continue to accumulate, and hot - rolled coil prices continue to be under pressure. Given the cost support, the subsequent trend will show a pattern of fluctuating and finding the bottom, and the trend will be weaker than that of building materials. Breaking the deadlock depends on steel mills increasing production cuts [5]. - The main contract price of iron ore fluctuated and stabilized, with a daily increase of 0.65%. Currently, iron ore supply remains high, while demand continues to decline. In the situation of increasing supply and weak demand, industrial contradictions in the ore industry lead to accelerated inventory accumulation, and ore prices continue to be under pressure. The relative positive factor is the short - term market recovery. The subsequent trend will continue to be weakly fluctuating. Pay attention to the performance of steel products [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - In October 2025, the average monthly working hours of major construction machinery products in China was 80.9 hours, a year - on - year decrease of 9.03% and a month - on - month increase of 3.62%. The monthly average working hours of excavators was 68.6 hours. The monthly start - up rate of major construction machinery products was 55%, a year - on - year decrease of 10.1 percentage points and a month - on - month decrease of 0.16 percentage points. The start - up rate of excavators was 55.1% [7]. - In October 2025, the total bond financing of the real estate industry was 51.24 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 76.9%. Affected by the low base in the same period last year, the total bond financing of real estate enterprises increased significantly. From the perspective of financing structure, the credit bond financing of the real estate industry was 32.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 50.7%, accounting for 63.8%; overseas bond financing was 2.85 billion yuan, accounting for 5.6%; ABS financing was 15.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 115.8%, accounting for 30.6%. The average bond financing interest rate was 2.56%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.42 percentage points and a month - on - month decrease of 0.13 percentage points. In the first 10 months of this year, the total bond financing of real estate enterprises was 488.24 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.6% [8]. - In the third quarter of 2025, the iron ore production of Canadian mining company IOC was 4.41 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15% and a month - on - month decrease of 1%. The year - on - year significant increase was mainly due to the impact of a 11 - day shutdown after forest fires in the third quarter of 2024. The salable iron ore production (concentrate + pellets) was 4 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11% and a month - on - month decrease of 6% [9]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,160 yuan, 3,190 yuan, and 3,220 yuan respectively; the spot prices of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,270 yuan, 3,190 yuan, and 3,318 yuan respectively; the price of Tangshan billet was 2,930 yuan; the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2,170 yuan; the coil - rebar price difference was 110 yuan; the rebar - scrap price difference was 990 yuan [10]. - The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 785 yuan; the price of Tangshan iron concentrate was 803 yuan; the sea freight from Australia was 9.63 yuan, and from Brazil was 23.15 yuan; the SGX swap (current month) was 104.33 yuan; the Platts Index (CFR, 62%) was 104.90 yuan [10]. 3.3 Futures Market | Variety | Active Contract | Closing Price | Daily Increase (%) | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Trading Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Open Interest Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | - | 3,037 | 0.40 | 3,042 | 3,017 | 884,740 | - 264,825 | 2,020,353 | - 11,428 | | Hot - rolled Coil | - | 3,256 | 0.22 | 3,271 | 3,241 | 462,037 | 14,203 | 1,365,348 | - 7,743 | | Iron Ore | - | 777.5 | 0.65 | 779.5 | 771.0 | 259,605 | - 22,010 | 537,495 | - 7,164 | [14] 3.4 Related Charts - **Steel Inventory**: There are charts showing the weekly changes and total inventory (steel mill + social inventory) of rebar and hot - rolled coil [17][23]. - **Iron Ore Inventory**: There are charts showing the inventory of 45 ports in China, including inventory changes, seasonal inventory, and the inventory of 247 steel mills [22][25]. - **Steel Mill Production Situation**: There are charts showing the blast furnace start - up rate, capacity utilization rate, independent electric furnace start - up rate, profitability of steel mills, and the inventory of domestic mine iron concentrate [31][32][35]. 3.5后市研判(Translated as Future Market Judgment) - **Rebar**: Both supply and demand have weakened. The weekly output of rebar decreased by 40,500 tons month - on - month, and the supply has shrunk again but is still at a relatively high level this year, with high inventory levels and supply pressure not relieved. At the same time, rebar demand has weakened as expected, with the weekly apparent demand decreasing by 136,600 tons month - on - month. Speculative demand is weak due to weak steel prices. Both are at low levels in recent years, and downstream conditions have not improved. As the off - season approaches, demand is likely to continue to weaken, putting pressure on steel prices. It is expected that the subsequent trend will continue to fluctuate and find the bottom, and attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [38]. - **Hot - rolled Coil**: Both supply and demand are weakening. Affected by production restrictions, the weekly output of hot - rolled coil decreased by 54,000 tons month - on - month, with a limited decline, and it is still at a relatively high level this year. High inventory levels and unrelieved supply pressure continue to suppress hot - rolled coil prices. At the same time, hot - rolled coil demand has begun to weaken, with the weekly apparent demand decreasing by 175,900 tons month - on - month, and high - frequency transactions remaining sluggish. The production of the main downstream cold - rolled products has continued to decline, and industrial contradictions have not been alleviated, continuing to drag down hot - rolled coils. In addition, the improvement in external demand is limited, and the resilience of hot - rolled coil demand is weakening. It is expected that the subsequent trend will show a pattern of fluctuating and finding the bottom, and the trend will be weaker than that of building materials. Breaking the deadlock depends on steel mills increasing production cuts [39]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply - demand pattern continues to weaken. Affected by production restrictions, the terminal demand for ore has continued to decline. Last week, the average daily hot metal output and imported ore consumption of sample steel mills decreased month - on - month, and the decline continued to expand, indicating an obvious trend of weakening demand. Considering that the industrial contradictions in the steel market have not been alleviated, coupled with frequent seasonal production - restriction disturbances, ore demand is expected to continue to decline, and weak demand is likely to drag down ore prices. At the same time, the arrival of goods at domestic ports has rebounded as expected, while the shipments of overseas miners have declined. Both are at relatively high levels, and domestic ore supply has increased, increasing the supply pressure of ore. It is expected that the subsequent trend will continue to be weakly fluctuating, and attention should be paid to the performance of steel products [40].
焦炭,成本支撑较强
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-11-06 07:50
Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided Core View The supply of coke remains stable at a high level, demand continues to weaken, and the supply-demand pattern is weak, suppressing coke prices. However, the cost support for coke is strong, and the "weak reality" and "high cost" continue to compete. It is expected that coke prices will continue to fluctuate within a range [6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Performance - Since mid - October, coke futures and spot prices have risen synchronously. The futures main contract reached a maximum of 1,818.5 yuan/ton, approaching the annual high. Recently, due to weaker market sentiment, the futures price has declined but remains at a relatively high level. The spot price is also strong, with the third round of price increases by coke enterprises implemented, and the cumulative increase in port spot ex - warehouse prices reaching 150 yuan/ton [2] Supply Situation - Coke supply is stable at a high level. As of the week ending October 31, the daily average coke output of all - sample independent coke enterprises was 64.59 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 73.44%, down 2.17 tons and 2.48 percentage points respectively compared to mid - September. The daily average coke output of 247 steel mills was 46.21 tons, rising for two consecutive weeks. The combined daily average output of steel mills and coking plants was 110.80 tons, down 2.27% from the previous high. However, due to poor profitability of coke enterprises and production restrictions in some areas, short - term supply is difficult to increase significantly [3] Demand Situation - Coke demand continues to weaken. Although steel demand has rebounded during the peak season, it has not alleviated the contradictions in the steel industry. With production restrictions, steel mills have increased production cuts, and the demand for raw materials such as coke has continued to decline. As of the week ending October 31, the daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills was 236.36 tons, declining for five consecutive weeks with an expanding decline. The proportion of profitable steel mills among 247 steel mills was 45.02%, declining for 12 consecutive weeks with a cumulative decline of 23.38 percentage points [4] Cost Support - Rising coal prices have continuously increased the production cost of coke, providing strong support for its price. As of the week ending October 31, the approved capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mine samples was 84.78%, and the daily average raw coal output was 190.33 tons, down 1.72 percentage points and 3.80 tons respectively compared to the end of September. Low supply has led to continuous depletion of coking coal inventory, and the current raw coal and clean coal inventories have reached new lows. The low - supply state of domestic coking coal is expected to continue, and with low inventory, coking coal prices are relatively firm [5]
燃料油,空头优势减弱
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-11-06 07:44
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The net short position of the top 20 long - short positions in the fuel oil futures 2601 contract decreased to 25,384 lots, indicating that the short - side advantage has weakened. It is expected that the decline of the fuel oil futures 2601 contract will slow down and maintain a weak trend in the future [7] 3. Summary According to the Content Market Performance of Fuel Oil Futures 2601 Contract - Yesterday, the fuel oil futures 2601 contract showed a pattern of increasing volume and positions, fluctuating weakly, and closing slightly lower. The intraday price center continued to move down below the 2,750 yuan/ton level, reaching a minimum of 2,711 yuan/ton. At the close, the price dropped 0.94% to 2,743 yuan/ton. The positions increased slightly by 2,413 lots to 183,463 lots, with an increase of 1.33% [2] Changes in the Top 20 Long - Short Positions - The positions of the fuel oil futures 2601 contract showed a pattern of both long and short positions increasing. The long positions increased by 3,402 lots to 107,936 lots, and the short positions increased by 1,532 lots to 133,320 lots [2] Details of Long - Position Increases in the Top 20 Long Positions - Among the top 20 long positions of the fuel oil futures 2601 contract, 11 institutions increased their long positions. Two institutions increased their long positions by more than 1,000 lots, namely Guotai Junan Futures and CITIC Futures, with increases of 1,812 lots and 1,571 lots respectively. Nine institutions increased their long positions between 100 and 1,000 lots [3] Details of Short - Position Increases in the Top 20 Short Positions - Among the top 20 short positions, 13 institutions increased their short positions. Two institutions increased their short positions by more than 1,000 lots, namely CITIC Futures and Ruida Futures, with increases of 3,596 lots and 1,744 lots respectively. Seven institutions increased their short positions between 100 and 1,000 lots [4] Multi - to - Short and Short - to - Long Operations - Three institutions carried out multi - to - short operations, including Galaxy Futures, CITIC Construction Investment Futures, and Guotou Futures, indicating that they believe the fuel oil will have insufficient rebound power. Two institutions carried out short - to - long operations, namely Dongzheng Futures and Fangzheng Futures, indicating that they believe the short - term decline of fuel oil is limited and there is a rebound opportunity [6]