Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of IF, IH, IC, IM is oscillating strongly, the medium - term view is rising, and the reference view is rising. The short - term of IH2509 is oscillating, the medium - term is rising, the intraday is oscillating strongly, and the reference view is rising [1][5] - The rebound of the stock index is mainly driven by positive policy expectations, and the market sentiment is generally optimistic. The stock index needs a short - term oscillating consolidation period, and in the short term, it is mainly oscillating strongly [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2509, in the short - term (within a week), it is oscillating; in the medium - term (two weeks to one month), it is rising; intraday, it is oscillating strongly, and the reference view is rising. The core logic is that positive policy expectations provide strong support [1] Main Variety Price Quotes Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view of IF, IH, IC, IM is oscillating strongly, the medium - term view is rising, and the reference view is rising. Last Friday, each stock index mainly oscillated narrowly. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 1815.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 58.4 billion yuan from the previous day. Some stocks have risen significantly since late June, so some profit - taking funds need to stop profits. The rebound of the stock index is driven by positive policy expectations. The domestic policy has boosted the price and profit repair expectations of related industries, and the official start of the Yarlung Zangbo River hydropower project has driven the expectation of policy - based support. The current trading volume in the stock market is high, indicating high risk preference of investors [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report's Core View - The market sentiment for thermal coal remains optimistic, and port coal prices are operating strongly. It is expected that coal prices will maintain a strong trend in August [1][4]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - For thermal coal spot, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all "oscillation". The core logic is that the market sentiment is optimistic and port coal prices are operating strongly [1]. 3.2 Price Market Driving Logic of Main Varieties - Commodity Futures Black Sector - **Supply**: As of the period of July 18, the daily average output of raw coal from 462 sample mines nationwide was 5.697 million tons, a slight increase of 10,300 tons per day compared with the end of June. In terms of imports, from July 1 - 14, the seaborne coal arrival volume in China was 10.864 million tons, with an average daily arrival of 776,000 tons, a significant improvement from 608,000 tons per day in June [4]. - **Demand**: In July, the coal consumption of power plants increased seasonally. As of July 17, the daily coal consumption of power plants in 8 coastal provinces was 2.419 million tons, a weekly increase of 271,000 tons; the daily coal consumption of power plants in 17 inland provinces was 3.911 million tons, a weekly increase of 360,000 tons [4]. - **Inventory**: As of July 24, the total coal inventory of 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 27.097 million tons, a weekly increase of 112,000 tons [4]. - **Conclusion**: The peak season and positive news such as "anti - involution" have resonated, driving coal prices to continue rising. With the start of the construction of the super hydropower station on the Yarlung Zangbo River, the market sentiment remains optimistic [4].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Ratings - There is no specific industry - wide investment rating provided in the report 2) Core Views - For gold, the short - term view is bearish, the medium - term view is sideways, and the intraday view is sideways - bearish. The core logic is that the US has reached tariff agreements with other countries, leading to a rise in market risk appetite and pressure on gold prices [1][3] - For copper, the short - term view is bullish, the medium - term view is bullish, and the intraday view is sideways - bullish. After the market digested the impact of US tariffs, the recovery of the global macro - economy pushed up copper prices [1][4] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Movement**: Last week, the gold price showed an inverted V - shaped trend. The New York gold price hit the $3450 mark in the first half of the week and then fell below $3350 in the second half [3] - **Core Logic**: Market concerns about the US tariff deadline on August 1st and the Fed's interest - rate meeting at the end of July led to the early - week price increase. However, positive trade signals at the end of July reduced trade policy uncertainty, increased market risk appetite, and pressured gold prices. Currently, gold is at a low level since the second quarter, and the $3300 mark's long - short battle can be watched [3] Copper - **Price Movement**: Last week, the copper price also rose first and then fell. After the market digested the impact of US tariffs, the copper price rebounded with the global macro - economic recovery. The Shanghai copper price hit the 80,000 yuan mark, and the London copper price approached $10,000. In the second half of the week, due to increased long - short divergence in the domestic market and strong willingness of copper bulls to close positions, the copper price decreased significantly [4] - **Core Logic**: The inventory of electrolytic copper is low in China and high abroad, and the pattern of stronger domestic and weaker overseas copper prices may continue. The domestic downstream is in the off - season, inventory depletion has slowed down, and with the continuous improvement of macro - expectations, the futures price may maintain a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. Short - term attention can be paid to the long - short battle at the 79,000 yuan mark of Shanghai copper [4]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 7 月 28 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2510 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线压力 | 市场情绪趋弱，钢价承压回落 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 周末钢材现货价格下行，乐观情绪趋弱，而螺纹钢供需格局延续季节性弱势，螺纹周产量开始 回升，且品种吨钢利润良好，存有增量空间，低供应格局待变。与此同时，螺纹需求迎来改善，高 频需求指标均有所回升，多因投机需求放量所致，持续性不强，且下游并无改善，淡季弱势需求格 局未变。总 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of TL2509 are all "oscillation", with an intraday view of "oscillation on the weak side". The core logic is that the monetary policy environment is loose, but the possibility of short - term interest rate cuts is low [1]. - The intraday view of TL, T, TF, and TS is "oscillation on the weak side", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation". In the short term, the possibility of interest rate cuts is low, and Treasury bond futures are expected to maintain an oscillatory consolidation trend. In the long term, a loose monetary environment is needed to support the economy, and there is still an expectation of interest rate cuts, so the foundation for the upward movement of Treasury bond futures in the medium - to - long term is relatively solid [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL2509, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are "oscillation", "oscillation", and "oscillation on the weak side" respectively, with an overall view of "oscillation". The core logic is that the monetary policy environment is loose, but the short - term possibility of interest rate cuts is low [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Last Friday, Treasury bond futures oscillated on the weak side. The central bank shifted from net liquidity withdrawal to net liquidity injection, with a net injection of 80.18 billion yuan through reverse repurchase and MLF operations. Due to the mitigation of domestic and foreign risk factors and the rapid increase in stock market risk appetite, the demand for Treasury bonds was weak, and the Treasury bond yield remained high. Considering the anchoring effect of policy interest rates, the upward space for Treasury bond yields is small. In the long run, a loose monetary environment is needed to support the economy, and there is an expectation of interest rate cuts, so the medium - to - long - term upward foundation of Treasury bond futures is relatively solid. In the short term, the possibility of interest rate cuts is low, and Treasury bond futures are expected to maintain an oscillatory consolidation trend [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The uncertainty of Sino - US trade continues to affect market sentiment, influencing the export prospects of US soybeans. Before the final result is announced, the price of US soybean futures will remain volatile. The weak reality of the domestic soybean meal fundamentals remains unchanged, and its futures price is more affected by market sentiment. With some funds leaving the market, the price has dropped significantly from its high and will run weakly in a volatile manner before market sentiment recovers [5]. - The overall decline in international oil prices has a continuous spill - over effect on the oil and fat market, suppressing the bio - energy demand prospects of the oil and fat sector. As palm oil has the strongest bio - energy attribute in the oil and fat sector, it is greatly affected by the fluctuations of international oil prices, and the risk of high - level fluctuations in palm oil futures prices increases in the short term [7]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Viewpoints**: Intraday view is weakly volatile, medium - term view is volatile, and the reference view is weakly volatile [5]. - **Core Logic**: Sino - US trade uncertainty affects US soybean export prospects, and domestic soybean meal fundamentals are weak. Market sentiment and capital flow influence the futures price [5]. Palm Oil (P) - **Viewpoints**: Intraday view is weakly volatile, medium - term view is volatile, and the reference view is weakly volatile [6][7]. - **Core Logic**: The decline in international oil prices suppresses the bio - energy demand of the oil and fat sector. Palm oil, with strong bio - energy attributes, is greatly affected by international oil price fluctuations, increasing short - term high - level volatility risks [7].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F0251793 投资咨询证号：Z0001617 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：chendong@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 观地出具本报告。本报告清晰 准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或 间接接收到任何形式的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 11615 2025 年 7 月 25 日 橡胶甲醇原油 专业研究·创造价值 偏多因素提振 能化再度上行 核心观点 宝城期货研究所 姓名：陈栋 橡胶：本周五国内沪胶期货 2509 合约呈现放量减仓，震荡上行， 大幅收涨的走势，盘中期价重心大幅上移至 15585 元/吨一线运行。收 盘时期价大幅收涨 2.94%至 15585 元/吨。9-1 月差贴水幅度缩小至 765 元/吨。由于国内宏观氛围增强并盖过胶市供需结构偏弱格局，叠加泰 国和柬埔寨爆发军事冲突，或威胁产区橡胶供应。在积极因素支撑下， 预计后市国内沪胶期货 2509 合约或维持震荡偏强格 ...

Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Views - **Copper**: Last night, Shanghai copper opened lower and continued to decline, with decreasing positions and strong willingness among long - position holders to close out. Today, it maintained a weak trend, with the main contract price oscillating above 79,200 yuan. After the Asian session yesterday, the non - ferrous and precious metals sectors generally declined, and the sharp drop in gold may affect short - term copper prices. On the industrial level, Mysteel's electrolytic copper social inventory on Thursday was 121,800 tons, a decrease of 3,700 tons compared to Monday. In the short term, copper prices have fallen after a rally, with strong resistance at $10,000 for LME copper and 80,000 yuan for Shanghai copper [5]. - **Aluminum**: Today, Shanghai aluminum oscillated, with decreasing positions. After the Asian session yesterday, the non - ferrous and precious metals sectors generally declined, but aluminum was relatively resistant. Favorable domestic macro - conditions supported aluminum prices. On the industrial level, Mysteel's electrolytic aluminum social inventory on Thursday was 494,000 tons, an increase of 14,000 tons compared to Monday. In the short term, there are macro - level positives and industrial - level negatives; attention should be paid to the support of the 5 - day moving average [6]. - **Nickel**: Today, Shanghai nickel oscillated strongly, with the main contract price breaking through the 124,000 - yuan mark. After the Asian session yesterday, the non - ferrous and precious metals sectors generally declined, but nickel was relatively resistant. On the industrial level, the trading atmosphere in the downstream stainless - steel market improved, which was favorable for nickel prices in the short term. Technically, nickel prices increased in volume and broke through the high point in early July, showing strong upward momentum; attention should be paid to the support of the 5 - day moving average [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: On July 25, SMM data showed that the average spot premium in Shandong was at a discount of 150 yuan/ton. Currently in the off - season, weak demand and rising copper prices have further dampened downstream purchasing enthusiasm, with market transactions mainly for rigid demand. Shandong smelters have low inventories, and holders are reluctant to significantly lower premiums. This week, the region continues to face a situation of weak supply and demand, with low market trading activity [9]. - **Aluminum**: On July 25, SMM reported that Rio Tinto achieved a record bauxite production in Q2. The company produced 15,644,000 tons of bauxite in Q2, a 6% increase from Q1, and expects full - year production to be at the upper end of the guidance range. Recycled aluminum production also increased to 74,000 tons, an 11% increase from Q1. However, bauxite production decreased by 6% from Q1, partly due to equipment shutdown and maintenance at the Yarwun refinery in Queensland, Australia. On July 24, Mysteel's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 494,000 tons, an increase of 23,000 tons from the 17th and 14,000 tons from the 21st [10]. - **Nickel**: On July 25, Mysteel reported that the mainstream reference contract for refined nickel in the Shanghai market was the SHFE nickel 2508 contract. The mainstream premium for Jinchuan electrolytic nickel was +2,000 yuan/ton, with a price of 125,630 yuan/ton; for Russian nickel, it was +550 yuan/ton, with a price of 124,180 yuan/ton; for Norwegian nickel, it was +3,600 yuan/ton, with a price of 127,230 yuan/ton; and for nickel beans, it was - 900 yuan/ton, with a price of 122,730 yuan/ton [11]. 2. Related Charts - **Copper**: Charts include copper basis, electrolytic copper domestic visible inventory (social + bonded area inventory), LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, Shanghai copper month - spread, overseas copper exchange inventory, and SHFE warrant inventory [12][14][15]. - **Aluminum**: Charts include aluminum basis, aluminum month - spread, electrolytic aluminum domestic social inventory, alumina trend, electrolytic aluminum overseas exchange inventory (LME + COMEX), and alumina inventory [25][31][33]. - **Nickel**: Charts include nickel basis, nickel month - spread, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, LME nickel trend, and nickel ore port inventory [38][44][46].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 黑色金属 | 日报 2025 年 7 月 25 日 煤焦日报 专业研究·创造价值 政策利好驱动，煤焦持续走强 核心观点 焦炭：根据钢联统计，截至 7 月 25 日当期，独立焦化厂和钢厂焦化厂合 计焦炭日均产量 111.76 万吨，周环比增 0.46 万吨。另外，因焦炭现货价 格上涨相较于焦煤滞后，本周 30 家独立样本焦化厂吨焦盈利为-54 元/ 吨，周环比降低 11 元/吨。需求方面，全国 247 家钢厂铁水日均产量 242.23 万吨，周环比小幅下降 0.21 万吨，较去年同期偏高 2.62 万吨。 综上，焦炭基本面尚可，且反内 ...

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Today, Treasury bond futures fluctuated weakly. The central bank shifted from net liquidity withdrawal to net injection through reverse repurchase and MLF operations, injecting 801.8 billion yuan of net liquidity. However, due to the overall mitigation of domestic and foreign risk factors and the rapid increase in the stock market's risk appetite, the demand for Treasury bonds was weak, and the Treasury bond yields remained high. Considering the anchoring effect of policy interest rates, the room for further upward movement of Treasury bond yields is small. In the medium to long term, a relatively loose monetary environment is still needed to support the economy in the second half of the year, and there is still an expectation of interest rate cuts. The medium - to long - term upward foundation for Treasury bond futures remains solid. In the short term, the possibility of interest rate cuts is low, and Treasury bond futures are expected to maintain a fluctuating consolidation trend [4] Group 3: Summary of Relevant Catalogs Industry News - On July 24, the People's Bank of China announced that to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system, on July 25, 2025 (Friday), it would conduct 400 billion yuan of 1 - year MLF operations through a fixed - quantity, interest - rate tender, and multiple - price winning bid method. On July 25, the central bank announced that it carried out 789.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate and quantity tender, with both the bid volume and winning bid volume being 789.3 billion yuan and the operating interest rate at 1.40% [6]