Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Report's Core View - The methanol 2509 contract is expected to run strongly, with short - term and medium - term trends being oscillatory and the intraday trend being oscillatory and strong. The core logic is that after the release of bearish sentiment from the previous sharp correction, a new round of supply - side reform may boost domestic commodity futures, and the rebound in coal futures prices drives the methanol futures to maintain an oscillatory and strong trend [1][5]. 3) Summary by Related Content Price and Trend - The domestic methanol futures 2509 contract closed 0.17% lower at 2376 yuan/ton last Friday night, and is expected to maintain an oscillatory and strong trend on Monday [5]. - For the methanol 2509 contract, the short - term trend is oscillatory, the medium - term trend is oscillatory, and the intraday trend is oscillatory and strong, with a reference view of strong operation [1][5]. Market Supply and Demand - With the continuous release of domestic methanol production capacity, the internal supply pressure is increasing. Overseas shipments are constantly arriving at ports, increasing external supply expectations. The ports are in a inventory - building cycle, while downstream demand has entered the off - season, resulting in a loose supply - demand structure [5]. Market Driving Factors - A new round of supply - side reform may come as the domestic high - level meeting emphasized governing low - price disorderly competition and promoting the orderly exit of backward production capacity, which boosts domestic commodity futures [5]. - The rebound in coal futures prices drives the domestic methanol futures [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For both Shanghai Rubber (RU) and Synthetic Rubber (BR), short - term and medium - term views are "oscillation", while the intraday view is "oscillation with a slight upward bias", and the reference view is "running with a slight upward bias" [1][5][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Market Situation**: On the night of last Friday, the 2509 contract of domestic Shanghai Rubber futures showed an oscillation with a slight downward trend, and the futures price slightly decreased by 0.42% to 14,325 yuan/ton. It is expected that on Monday, the 2509 contract of domestic Shanghai Rubber futures may maintain an oscillation and stabilization trend [5] - **Core Logic**: The recent domestic high - level meeting set the tone, including governing low - price disorderly competition and promoting the orderly withdrawal of backward production capacity. A new round of supply - side reform may boost domestic commodity futures. Currently, the supply side of the rubber market is in the peak tapping season with strong incremental expectations and large month - on - month output pressure. At the same time, downstream demand is weak, the growth rate of tire production and sales has slowed down, and terminal demand has entered the off - season [5] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Market Situation**: On the night of last Friday, the 2509 contract of domestic synthetic rubber futures showed an oscillation and consolidation trend, and the futures price slightly decreased by 0.56% to 11,520 yuan/ton. It is expected that on Monday, the 2509 contract of domestic synthetic rubber futures may maintain an oscillation with a slight upward trend [7] - **Core Logic**: The recent domestic high - level meeting set the tone, including governing low - price disorderly competition and promoting the orderly withdrawal of backward production capacity. A new round of supply - side reform may boost domestic commodity futures. Recently, the operating loads of some private butadiene rubber plants in East and South China have slightly increased, driving the further improvement of domestic butadiene rubber production and capacity utilization. At the same time, downstream demand is weak, the growth rate of tire production and sales has slowed down, and terminal demand has entered the off - season [7]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 7 月 14 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2509 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线支撑 | 乐观情绪主导，矿价高位运行 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 乐观情绪未退，矿价高位运行，但铁矿石供需格局并无改善，淡季钢厂生产趋弱，矿石终端消耗 延续下行，相对利好则是钢厂盈利状况尚可，减量空间有限。同时，港口到货低位回升，而矿商发运 大幅减量，海外矿石供应明显收缩，相应的内矿生产同样趋弱，供应短期收缩。目前来看，政策利好 预期 ...

1. Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term, medium - term, and reference views of TL2509 are all "oscillation", with an intraday view of "oscillation on the weak side". The core logic is that the monetary policy environment is relatively loose, but the possibility of a short - term interest rate cut is low [1]. - For varieties such as TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is "oscillation on the weak side", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation". Due to the recent rapid recovery of risk appetite in the domestic stock market, the safe - haven demand for bonds has decreased. The possibility of the central bank cutting interest rates in the short term is low, so treasury bond futures are in a consolidation phase. However, under the general tone of moderately loose policies, the adjustment space for treasury bond futures is limited. In the long - term, the logic of an upward trend in treasury bond futures is relatively solid, and they will continue to oscillate and consolidate in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The time - cycle definitions are: short - term is within one week, and medium - term is from two weeks to one month. For TL2509, the short - term, medium - term, and reference views are "oscillation", and the intraday view is "oscillation on the weak side". The core logic is the loose monetary policy environment and low short - term interest - rate cut possibility [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is "oscillation on the weak side", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation". Last Friday, treasury bond futures oscillated in a narrow range. The recovery of stock - market risk appetite reduced bond safe - haven demand. The short - term interest - rate cut possibility is low, leading to a consolidation of treasury bond futures. With a loose policy tone, the adjustment space is limited. Given weak inflation, insufficient domestic demand, and external demand affected by tariffs, a loose monetary environment is needed in the second half of the year, making the long - term upward logic of treasury bond futures solid. In the short term, they will continue to oscillate and consolidate [5].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold is expected to run strongly in the short - term due to rising US tariff expectations and technical price rebounds [1][3]. - Copper is seen as strong in the short - term. Although the US tariff on copper may cause price drops, domestic macro - expectations and industrial support could provide strong support [1][5]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Price Movement**: Last week, overseas gold prices rebounded after falling below $3300, and domestic Shanghai gold rebounded after falling below 770 yuan [3]. - **Driving Logic**: Market tariff expectations increased after July 9 (the end - date of the 90 - day tariff extension). US President Trump announced a 30% tariff on products from Mexico and the EU starting August 1, 2025. Technically, the futures price stabilized and regained the $3300 level and the 60 - day moving average [3]. - **Viewpoints**: Short - term: rising; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating and slightly stronger; Overall: running strongly [1][3]. Copper - **Price Movement**: Last week, Shanghai copper decreased with reduced positions, and the decline was mainly due to the expected 50% US tariff on copper [5]. - **Driving Logic**: The US will impose a 50% tariff on imported copper starting August 1. Market concerns about the tariff implementation may lead to a closed US import window and increased supply in non - US regions. However, positive domestic macro - expectations, rising commodities and stocks, and strong industrial support could support Shanghai copper, and the LME import loss has rapidly narrowed [5]. - **Viewpoints**: Short - term: rising; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating and slightly stronger; Overall: strong in the short - term [1][5].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货动力煤早报（2025 年 7 月 14 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | | | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：动力煤现货 日内观点： 中期观点： 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：从供需来看，安全生产月结束后，主产区煤炭产量逐步恢复，动力煤供应仍维持较高 水平。需求方面，7 月迎峰度夏关键时期，国内电煤需求季节性攀升，数据显示，截至 7 月 3 日， 沿海 8 省电厂煤炭日耗 208.7 万吨，周环比增 18.8 万吨；内陆 17 省电厂煤炭日耗 364.6 万吨， 周环比降 0.6 万吨。另外，国家气候中心最新预测显示，7 月 21 日至 8 月 5 日，我国大部地区气 温仍将高于常年同期，电煤需求预计维持高 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of the stock index is oscillating strongly, and the medium - term view is rising. The main driving force is the expectation of policy benefits in the second half of the year, and the market risk preference is positive recently [1][4] Group 3: Summary of Relevant Catalogs 1. Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2509, the short - term trend is oscillating, the medium - term trend is rising, the intraday trend is oscillating strongly, and the overall view is oscillating strongly. The core logic is that the positive policy expectations provide strong support [1] 2. Driving Logic of Main Variety Price Quotes - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday and reference views of IF, IH, IC, and IM are oscillating strongly, and the medium - term view is rising. Last Friday, the stock indexes oscillated and rose, with a total market turnover of 1736.6 billion yuan, an increase of 221.5 billion yuan from the previous day. The rare earth permanent magnet and large - finance sectors led the gains, and both technology and dividends in the "dumbbell strategy" were favored. Since late June, the stock index has rebounded significantly due to policy benefit expectations. The domestic inflation is weak, and there is a need for more policies to stabilize economic demand and market expectations. The market risk preference is positive, and the stock index will oscillate strongly in the short term [4]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The report predicts that the price of thermal coal will maintain a moderately strong and fluctuating trend in the near future, but the upside is limited. The peak summer electricity - coal demand is strong, and the middle and lower - stream inventories are gradually decreasing, which drives the coal price to rise slightly. However, the relatively high port inventory still suppresses the coal price rebound [4]. 3) Summary by Related Content Supply Side The end of the national safety production month allows the coal mines with production suspension and limitation in the main production areas to resume production after rectification, leading to a slight increase in thermal coal supply [4]. Demand Side Since July, the domestic temperature has further risen, especially in some coastal provinces such as Jiangsu and Zhejiang where the maximum temperature has exceeded 40°C, resulting in good residential cooling demand during the peak - summer period. The National Climate Center predicts that in July 2025, most areas in China will have higher - than - normal temperatures, and the precipitation in the southern part of the southwest region will be more than normal, with 20% - 50% more precipitation in most parts of Yunnan. There is room for seasonal improvement in hydropower [4]. Port Inventory As of July 3, the total coal inventory of 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 27.493 million tons, with a weekly de - stocking of 747,000 tons. It is still at a high level in the same period of the past 5 years, and the sufficient coal inventory in the northern ports continues to suppress the coal price [4].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 晨会纪要 宝城期货甲醇早报-2025-07-11 品种晨会纪要 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 甲醇 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 煤炭价格反弹，甲醇震荡偏强 | 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 甲醇（MA） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：随着国内甲醇产能持续释放，内部供应压力有增无减。叠加海外船货不断到港，外部供 应预期逐渐增大，港口迎来累库周期，而下游需求则步入淡季，供需结构趋于宽松。在经历前期大 幅回调以后，利空情绪得 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The domestic crude oil futures contract 2509 is expected to run weakly, with a short - term, medium - term, and intraday view of being in a weak - oscillating state [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Content Price and Market Performance - The domestic crude oil futures 2509 contract closed 1.59% lower at 502.9 yuan/barrel on Thursday night [5]. Core Logic - The geopolitical risk in the Middle East has increased the premium of crude oil, and the confidence of oil market bulls has been strengthened after the previous sharp decline. The demand for crude oil has increased due to the arrival of the Northern Hemisphere's summer peak season [5]. - Eight major OPEC and non - OPEC oil - producing countries decided to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, exceeding market expectations, which has put downward pressure on the oil price [5].