Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 showed a trend of shrinking volume, increasing positions, stabilizing in oscillation, and slightly rising on Tuesday. Driven by macro - sentiment and industrial factors, it is conducive to the valuation repair of the contract [6]. - The methanol futures contract 2601 showed a trend of increasing volume, increasing positions, weakening in oscillation, and slightly falling on Tuesday. Suppressed by the weak supply - demand fundamentals of methanol, it is expected to continue to operate weakly in the future [6]. - The crude oil futures contract 2512 showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, weakening in oscillation, and slightly closing lower on Tuesday. After the previous rebound of oil prices, differences between bulls and bears emerged. It is expected to maintain a weakly oscillating pattern in the future [6]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Rubber**: As of October 26, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 432,200 tons, a decrease of 5,300 tons or 1.20% from the previous period. The inventory in the bonded area was 68,700 tons, a decrease of 1.29%, and the general trade inventory was 363,500 tons, a decrease of 1.18%. In the week of October 24, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.84%, a week - on - week increase of 1.77 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.84 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.87%, a week - on - week increase of 1.91 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.95 percentage points. In September 2025, China's logistics industry prosperity index was 51.2%, a rebound of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. The new order index was 53.3%, a rebound of 1 percentage point month - on - month. In September, China's automobile production and sales were 3.276 million and 3.226 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 17.1% and 14.9%. From January to September 2025, China's automobile production and sales totaled 24.333 million and 24.363 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 13.3% and 12.9%. In September 2025, the sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was 105,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 82% and a month - on - month increase of 15%. From January to September, the cumulative sales volume was about 821,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 20% [8][9]. - **Methanol**: As of the week of October 24, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 82.71%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.67%, a month - on - month increase of 3.20%, and a year - on - year increase of 2.17%. The average weekly methanol output was 1.9435 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 40,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 70,800 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 73,600 tons. The domestic formaldehyde operating rate was 30.97%, a week - on - week slight increase of 0.02%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was 8.34%, a week - on - week increase of 1.66%. The acetic acid operating rate was 73.61%, a week - on - week increase of 2%. The MTBE operating rate was 56.50%, a week - on - week increase of 1.61%. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 86.45%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.91 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 3.42%. The futures market profit of domestic methanol to olefin was - 154 yuan/ton, a week - on - week rebound of 111 yuan/ton and a month - on - month rebound of 22 yuan/ton. As of the week of October 24, the port methanol inventory in East and South China was 1.2698 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,700 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 308,100 tons. As of the week of October 23, the inland methanol inventory was 360,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 40,400 tons, and a year - on - year decrease of 76,500 tons [10][11]. - **Crude Oil**: As of the week of October 17, 2025, the number of active oil drilling platforms in the United States was 418, with no week - on - week change and a decrease of 64 from the same period last year. The average daily crude oil production in the United States was 13.629 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 7,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 129,000 barrels per day. As of the week of October 17, the U.S. commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 423 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 961,000 barrels and a year - on - year decrease of 3.2 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was 21.231 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 770,000 barrels. The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory was 408.56 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 819,000 barrels. The U.S. refinery operating rate was 88.6%, a week - on - week increase of 2.9 percentage points, a month - on - month decrease of 4.4 percentage points, and a year - on - year decrease of 0.9 percentage points. As of September 23, the average non - commercial net long positions of WTI crude oil were 102,958 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 4,249 contracts and a decrease of 19,105 contracts or 15.65% from the August average. As of October 21, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 51,791 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 58,520 contracts and a decrease of 164,564 contracts or 76.06% from the September average [11][12]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | |--|--|--|--|--|--|--| | Shanghai Rubber | 14,750 yuan/ton | +0 yuan/ton | 15,350 yuan/ton | - 30 yuan/ton | - 600 yuan/ton | +30 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,250 yuan/ton | +0 yuan/ton | 2,254 yuan/ton | - 14 yuan/ton | - 4 yuan/ton | +14 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 438.5 yuan/barrel | - 0.2 yuan/barrel | 465.6 yuan/barrel | - 3.3 yuan/barrel | - 27.1 yuan/barrel | +3.1 yuan/barrel | [14] 3.3 Related Charts - **Rubber**: Charts include rubber basis, rubber 1 - 5 month spread, SHFE rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded - area rubber inventory, full - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [15][22][25] - **Methanol**: Charts include methanol basis, methanol 1 - 5 month spread, domestic port methanol inventory, inland social methanol inventory, methanol - to - olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [28][30][36] - **Crude Oil**: Charts include crude oil basis, SHFE crude oil futures inventory, U.S. commercial crude oil inventory, U.S. refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change [39][41][43]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The main contract price of rebar fluctuated, with a daily increase of 0.49%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. Rebar demand continued its seasonal recovery, but supply also increased, and the fundamentals did not improve. There was significant pressure to reduce inventory, and steel prices were still prone to downward pressure. The relatively positive factors were cost support and production - restriction disturbances. It is expected that steel prices will continue to fluctuate and stabilize, and attention should be paid to demand performance [4]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil fluctuated, with a daily increase of 0.85%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. Currently, the supply pressure of hot - rolled coils remained, and there were concerns about demand. The fundamentals did not improve substantially, and prices continued to be under pressure. The relatively positive factors were cost support and production - restriction disturbances. It is expected that the trend will continue to fluctuate and stabilize, and attention should be paid to demand performance [4]. - The main contract price of iron ore showed a strong trend, with a daily increase of 1.93%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. Currently, market sentiment improved, and iron ore prices rebounded from the low level. However, ore supply remained at a high level, while demand continued to weaken. In the situation of strong supply and weak demand, the fundamentals of iron ore were not good, and high - valued ore prices were prone to downward pressure. It is expected that ore prices will continue to fluctuate under the game of multiple and short factors, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished products [4]. Summary by Directory Industry Dynamics - The central bank will implement a one - time personal credit relief policy at the beginning of 2026, which is expected to help stabilize the real estate market. These measures will have a positive impact on improving market liquidity and residents' housing purchase ability, and are conducive to the recovery of the real estate market's expectations [6]. - In the first three quarters, the national investment in water conservancy construction reached 879.79 billion yuan. The Ministry of Water Resources promoted the construction of water conservancy infrastructure [7]. - According to the latest production schedule report of three major white - goods products, the total planned production volume of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines in November 2025 was 28.47 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 17.7%. Specifically, the planned production volume of household air conditioners in November was 12.76 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 23.7%; that of refrigerators was 7.78 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 9.4%; and that of washing machines was 7.93 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 0.2% [8]. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,190, 3,150, and 3,249 respectively, with price changes of 10, 10, and 15. The spot prices of hot - rolled coils in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,340, 3,240, and 3,360 respectively, with price changes of 10, 20, and 10. The price of Tangshan billet was 2,980 with a change of 20, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2,160 with no change. The coil - rebar price difference was 150 with no change, and the rebar - scrap price difference was 1,030 with a change of 10 [9]. - The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 797 with a change of 4, the price of Tangshan iron concentrate was 823 with a change of 5, the sea freight from Australia was 9.54 with a change of - 0.15, the sea freight from Brazil was 22.61 with a change of - 0.32, the SGX swap price (current month) was 105.66 with a change of 0.46, and the Platts index (CFR, 62%) was 106.50 with a change of 1.35 [9]. Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar futures active contract was 3,091, with a daily increase of 0.49%. The trading volume was 1,333,406 with a decrease of 362,795, and the open interest was 1,930,357 with a decrease of 22,644 [13]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil futures active contract was 3,305, with a daily increase of 0.85%. The trading volume was 504,315 with a decrease of 91,619, and the open interest was 1,473,797 with a decrease of 8,933 [13]. - The closing price of the iron ore futures active contract was 792.5, with a daily increase of 1.93%. The trading volume was 330,083 with a decrease of 33,211, and the open interest was 548,944 with a decrease of 9,902 [13]. 后市研判 - For rebar, both supply and demand increased. The weekly output of rebar increased by 5.91 tons, and inventory was relatively high. Although demand continued to improve seasonally, it was still at a low level in the same period in recent years, and the peak season might be lackluster. The fundamentals did not improve, and there was great pressure to reduce inventory. Steel prices were still prone to downward pressure. With cost support and production - restriction disturbances, it is expected that steel prices will continue to fluctuate and stabilize, and attention should be paid to demand performance [37]. - For hot - rolled coils, the supply - demand pattern improved slightly, and inventory decreased again. The weekly output of hot - rolled coils increased slightly by 0.62 tons and remained at a high level this year, and inventory was high, so the supply pressure continued to suppress steel prices. Although demand was okay, there were concerns about the main downstream cold - rolled production and external demand. The fundamentals did not improve substantially, and prices continued to be under pressure. With cost support and production - restriction disturbances, it is expected that the trend will continue to fluctuate and stabilize, and attention should be paid to demand performance [37]. - For iron ore, the supply - demand pattern continued to weaken. Steel mill production weakened, and ore consumption continued to decline. The supply of iron ore remained at a high level, with both domestic port arrivals and miner shipments at high levels this year. Although market sentiment improved and ore prices rebounded from the low level, the high - valued ore prices were prone to downward pressure due to the strong supply and weak demand. It is expected that ore prices will continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished products [38].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - **沪铜**: On October 28, 2025, Shanghai copper showed weak oscillations in the morning and a sharp decline in the afternoon, with the main contract price dropping to around 87,000. The macro - environment turned bearish in the afternoon, leading to a general decline in the non - ferrous sector. Copper decreased with reduced positions, indicating strong short - term profit - taking intentions of long - positions. Technically, attention should be paid to the support of the 5 - day moving average [6]. - **沪铝**: On the same day, Shanghai aluminum also had weak oscillations in the morning and a sharp decline in the afternoon. Affected by the bearish macro - environment in the afternoon and the general decline of the non - ferrous sector, aluminum decreased with reduced positions, and short - term long - positions had strong profit - taking intentions. Technically, attention should be paid to the support of the 10 - day moving average [7]. - **沪镍**: Shanghai nickel oscillated weakly on this day, with a significant decline accompanied by increased positions at the end of the session. Previously, when the macro - environment improved, non - ferrous metals prices rose, but nickel only had a weak rebound with reduced positions. With the macro - environment turning bearish today, nickel prices declined with increased positions. In terms of funds, nickel is still an under - allocated short position in the non - ferrous sector. Technically, attention should be paid to the low in October for support [8]. 3. Summary by Sections 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: According to Industrial Online data, in September 2025, China's household air - conditioner production was 10.567 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 13.5%; sales were 10.884 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 10.2%. Among them, domestic sales were 5.949 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 2.5%; exports were 4.935 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 18.1% [10]. - **Nickel**: On October 28, 2025, the price range of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 120,700 - 123,600 yuan/ton, with an average price of 122,150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 900 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium range of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 2,200 - 2,400 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 2,300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium range of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was - 300 - 100 yuan/ton. Due to the change of quotation month, both premiums decreased [10]. 3.2 Related Charts - **Copper**: The report provides multiple copper - related charts, including copper basis, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper (social inventory + bonded area inventory), LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, overseas copper exchange inventory, SHFE warrant inventory, etc [11][12][13]. - **Aluminum**: Related charts include aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum (LME + COMEX), alumina inventory, aluminum rod inventory, etc [24][26][28]. - **Nickel**: Charts involve nickel basis, LME nickel cancelled warrant ratio, LME nickel trend, nickel monthly spread, SHFE inventory, nickel ore port inventory, etc [37][39][40].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 黑色金属 | 日报 2025 年 10 月 28 日 煤焦日报 专业研究·创造价值 多空交织，煤焦区间震荡 核心观点 焦炭：10 月 28 日，焦炭主力合约报收于 1747.5 元/吨，日内录得 0.96% 的跌幅。截至收盘，主力合约持仓量为 3.97 万手，较前一交易日仓差为- 755 手。现货市场方面，日照港准一级湿熄焦平仓价格指数最新报价为 1570 元/吨，周环比上涨 3.29%；青岛港准一级湿熄焦出库价为 1530 元/ 吨，周环比上涨 2.68%。现阶段，焦炭上下游博弈激烈，基本面支撑不 足，相对利好在于焦煤带来的成本支撑以及内外宏观回暖的情绪支撑。 焦煤：10 月 28 日，焦煤主力合约报收 1242 点，日内下跌 0.76%。截至收 盘，主力合约持仓量为 65.04 万手，较前一交易日仓差为-17467 手。现 货市场方面，甘其毛都口岸蒙煤最新报价为 1340.0 元/吨，周环比上涨 2.29%。整体来看，焦煤短期基本面无明显变化，强预期支撑焦煤主力合 约区间震荡，后续关注中美贸易措施结果以及主产区供应变化。 （仅供参考，不构成 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 资讯早班车-2025-10-28 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 20251020 | 2025/09 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 4.80 | 5.20 | 4.60 | | 20250930 | 2025/09 | 制造业 PMI | % | 49.80 | 49.40 | 49.80 | | 20250930 | 2025/09 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活 动 | % | 50.00 | 50.30 | 50.00 | | 20251016 | 2025/09 | 社会融资规模增量:当 | 亿元 | | 35296.00 25660.00 | 37635.00 | | | | 月值 | | | | | | 20251015 | 2025/09 | M0(流通中的现金):同 比 | % | 11.50 | 11.70 | 11.50 | | 20251 ...

1. Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report presents the latest trading day's (October 27, 2025) and historical (October 21 - 24, 2025) data on various futures varieties, including basis, inter - month spreads, and inter - commodity spreads, for different sectors such as thermal coal, energy and chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures. The data is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice [56]. 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 Thermal Coal - The basis data for thermal coal from October 21 - 27, 2025, shows that the basis on October 21 was - 39.4 yuan/ton, which gradually increased to - 31.4 yuan/ton on October 27. The spreads between different contract months (5 - 1, 9 - 1, 9 - 5) were all 0.0 yuan/ton during this period [2]. 3.2 Energy and Chemicals 3.2.1 Energy Commodities - For energy commodities, data on basis, ratio, and other indicators are provided for fuel oil, crude oil, and asphalt from October 21 - 27, 2025. For example, the basis of INE crude oil on October 27 was 55.04 yuan/ton, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt was 0.1414 [7]. 3.2.2 Chemical Commodities - **Basis**: The basis data of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, and PP from October 21 - 27, 2025, shows fluctuations. For instance, the basis of rubber decreased from - 850 yuan/ton on October 21 to - 630 yuan/ton on October 27 [9]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The inter - month spreads (5 - 1, 9 - 1, 9 - 5) of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are presented. For example, the 5 - 1 spread of rubber was 60 yuan/ton [11]. - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: The inter - commodity spreads such as LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3*methanol from October 21 - 27, 2025, are provided. For example, the LLDPE - PVC spread on October 27 was 2273 yuan/ton [11]. 3.3 Black Metals - **Inter - month Spreads**: The inter - month spreads (5 - 1, 9(10) - 1, 9(10) - 5) of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are given. For example, the 5 - 1 spread of rebar was 61.0 yuan/ton [20]. - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: The inter - commodity spreads such as rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot rolled coil from October 21 - 27, 2025, are presented. For example, the rebar/iron ore ratio on October 27 was 3.96 [20]. - **Basis**: The basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from October 21 - 27, 2025, shows changes. For example, the basis of rebar on October 27 was 130.0 yuan/ton [21]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Domestic Market - The domestic basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from October 21 - 27, 2025, shows significant fluctuations. For example, the basis of copper changed from 250 yuan/ton on October 21 to - 70 yuan/ton on October 27 [28]. 3.4.2 London Market - Data on LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on October 27, 2025, are provided. For example, the LME spread of copper was (25.97) [33]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis data of soybeans (No. 1 and No. 2), soybean meal, soybean oil, corn, etc., from October 21 - 27, 2025, shows changes. For example, the basis of soybeans (No. 1) on October 27 was - 97 yuan/ton [39]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The inter - month spreads (5 - 1, 9 - 1, 9 - 5) of various agricultural products are presented. For example, the 5 - 1 spread of soybeans (No. 1) was 40 yuan/ton [39]. - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: The inter - commodity spreads such as soybean (No. 1)/corn, soybean (No. 2)/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, etc., from October 21 - 27, 2025, are provided. For example, the soybean (No. 1)/corn ratio on October 27 was 1.93 [39]. 3.6 Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from October 21 - 27, 2025, shows fluctuations. For example, the basis of CSI 300 on October 27 was 31.62 [50]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The inter - month spreads (next month - current month, next quarter - current quarter) of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are presented. For example, the next month - current month spread of CSI 300 was - 14.8 [50].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content, skipped. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore price is expected to continue an oscillating trend due to the game between bullish and bearish factors. The high - valued ore price is likely to face pressure under the situation of strong supply and weak demand [2]. - For the iron ore 2601 contract, the short - term and medium - term trends are oscillating, and the intraday trend is oscillating weakly. Attention should be paid to the support at the MA5 line [1]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2601 contract, the short - term trend is oscillating, the medium - term trend is oscillating, and the intraday trend is oscillating weakly. The reference view is to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line, with the core logic being that market sentiment has warmed up and the ore price has bottomed out and rebounded [1]. Market Driving Logic - Market sentiment has warmed up, and the iron ore futures price has rebounded from a low level. However, the supply - demand pattern has changed little. Steel mill production is weakening, and the terminal consumption of ore is continuously falling. With the industrial contradictions in the steel market unresolved and the resurgence of production restrictions, demand is expected to continue to decline [2]. - Affected by weather factors, the arrival of ore at domestic ports has unexpectedly declined, but overseas ore shipments remain high. According to shipping schedules, subsequent arrivals will increase, and domestic ore production is normal, so the ore supply is stabilizing at a high level [2]. - Currently, although the market sentiment has warmed up and the iron ore price has rebounded from a low level, the supply remains high while the demand continues to weaken. Under the situation of strong supply and weak demand, the ore fundamentals are poor, and the high - valued ore price is prone to pressure [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term and medium - term outlook for rebar 2601 is "sideways", and the intraday outlook is "sideways and slightly weak". It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line. The fundamental situation has not improved, and steel prices will move sideways [1]. - Although rebar demand continues to recover seasonally, supply has also increased. The fundamentals have not improved, and there is significant pressure on inventory reduction. Steel prices are still prone to downward pressure. The relatively positive factors are cost support and production restrictions. It is expected that steel prices will continue to stabilize in a sideways pattern, and attention should be paid to demand performance [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2601, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday outlooks are "sideways", "sideways", and "sideways and slightly weak" respectively. The reference view is to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line, and the core logic is that the fundamentals have not improved and steel prices move sideways [1]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The sentiment in the commodity market has improved, and production restrictions in Tangshan have provided a boost, leading to a strengthening of steel futures prices. Currently, the supply - demand pattern of rebar has not changed significantly. Construction steel mills have increased production, supply has rebounded from a low level, and inventory is relatively high, increasing pressure. Meanwhile, rebar demand has continued to improve, with high - frequency indicators rising, but it remains at a low level compared to the same period in previous years, and the downstream situation has not improved. The peak - season performance is expected to be lackluster. In summary, although rebar demand has seasonally recovered, supply has also increased, the fundamentals have not improved, and there is significant pressure on inventory reduction. Steel prices are still prone to downward pressure. The relatively positive factors are cost support and production - restriction disturbances. It is expected that steel prices will continue to stabilize in a sideways pattern, and attention should be paid to demand performance [2].

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - Not mentioned Group 2: Core Views - The short - term view of TL2512 is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the intraday view is "weak oscillation", with an overall view of "oscillation". The core logic is that short - term interest rate cut expectations have declined, while medium - and long - term easing expectations still exist [1]. - For the TL, T, TF, and TS varieties, the intraday view is "weak oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation". The core logic is that although treasury bond futures closed up in an oscillatory manner yesterday, due to the persistent problem of insufficient effective domestic demand, a moderately loose monetary environment is needed in the medium and long term to stabilize the demand side, providing strong support for treasury bond futures. However, in the short term, there is no strong need for a comprehensive interest rate cut. With the easing of external uncertainty risks, the warming of domestic policy benefits, and the increasing risk appetite in the stock market, the demand for treasury bonds is suppressed. Overall, the upside and downside space for treasury bond futures is limited in the short term, and they will mainly be in an oscillatory consolidation state [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2512 variety, the short - term is "oscillation", the medium - term is "oscillation", the intraday is "weak oscillation", with an overall view of "oscillation". The core logic is the change in interest rate cut expectations [1]. Main Variety Price and Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Treasury bond futures closed up in an oscillatory manner yesterday. Due to insufficient effective domestic demand, a moderately loose monetary environment is needed in the medium and long term to support treasury bond futures. In the short term, there is no strong need for a comprehensive interest rate cut, and the increasing risk appetite in the stock market suppresses the demand for treasury bonds. So, the short - term movement of treasury bond futures is oscillatory [5].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 观点参考 期货研究报告 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 10 月 28 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 上涨 | 震荡思路 | 偏多因素支撑，焦煤震荡上行 | | 焦炭 | 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡思路 | 市场氛围良好，焦炭偏强震荡 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：上涨 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡思路 核心逻辑：截至 10 月 24 日当周， ...