投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 晨会纪要 宝城期货橡胶早报-2025-07-11 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：近日国内高层会议定调，最核心的两个：治理低价无序竞争和推动落后产能有序退出， 新一轮供给侧改革可能到来提振国内商品期货。目前胶市供应端处在割胶旺季，增量预期较强，月 环比产出压力较大。与此同时，下游需求偏弱，轮胎产销增速放缓，叠加终端需求迎来淡季。在偏 多氛围支撑下，本周四夜盘国内沪胶期货 2509 合约呈现震荡偏强的走势，期价小幅收涨 1.19%至 14410 元/吨。预计本周五国内沪胶期货 2509 合约或维持震荡偏强的走势。 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 偏多氛围支撑，沪胶震荡偏强 | | 合成胶 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 偏多氛围支撑，合成胶震荡偏强 | 备 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - For gold, the short - term view is a decline, the medium - term view is a sideways movement, and the intraday view is a sideways and weakening trend. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach. The core logic is that the US non - farm payrolls data exceeded expectations, the dollar rebounded, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations decreased, putting pressure on gold prices. However, the long - term de - dollarization and anti - globalization trends still support gold prices [1][2]. - For copper, the short - term view is an increase, the medium - term view is a sideways movement, and the intraday view is a sideways and strengthening trend. It is recommended to be bullish in the short - term. The core logic is that the domestic macro - environment has improved, and although the US plans to impose a 50% tariff on imported copper, copper prices are supported at the June price center [1][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Performance**: Overseas gold prices have repeatedly rebounded after falling below $3300, and domestic Shanghai gold has rebounded after falling below 770 yuan [2]. - **Driving Factors**: The US non - farm data in early July exceeded expectations, reducing the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations. The dollar index has been rising, putting pressure on gold prices. Technically, gold has fallen below the 60 - day moving average, but the long - term de - dollarization trend still supports gold [2]. Copper - **Price Performance**: Copper prices stabilized and rebounded yesterday, with the open interest continuously decreasing [4]. - **Driving Factors**: Domestically, the macro - environment has improved, and the equity and commodity markets have generally risen. The US plans to impose a 50% tariff on imported copper from August 1st, which may lead to a decline in non - US copper demand. However, copper prices are supported at the June price center [4].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 7 月 11 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2509 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线支撑 | 市场情绪偏暖，矿价高位运行 | 说明： 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需双弱局面未变，淡季钢厂生产趋弱，矿石终端消耗持续下降，但钢厂盈利状况较好， 需求减量空间有限。同时，港口到货虽迎来回升，但财年末冲量结束后矿商发运大幅减量，海外矿石 供应迎来收缩，相应的内矿生产趋弱，供应同样走弱。目前来看，供需双弱局面下矿石基本面并无实 质性 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the stock index is expected to fluctuate strongly; in the medium - term, it is expected to rise. The main driving force for the stock index rebound since late June is the expectation of policy benefits in the second half of the year, including the optimistic expectation that the "anti - involution" policy will promote the profit repair of the new energy industry and the confidence boost of macro - bottoming policies to the traditional infrastructure and real estate sectors. The market risk preference is positive recently, and the stock index will fluctuate strongly in the short term [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2509, the short - term view is "fluctuation", the medium - term view is "rise", the intraday view is "fluctuation with an upward bias", and the reference view is "fluctuation with an upward bias". The core logic is that the positive policy expectations provide strong support [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IF, IH, IC, and IM, the intraday view is "fluctuation with an upward bias", the medium - term view is "rise", and the reference view is "fluctuation with an upward bias". The core logic is that since late June, the stock index has rebounded significantly, driven by the expectation of policy benefits in the second half of the year. Currently, domestic inflation is weak, the endogenous growth momentum of domestic demand is insufficient, and external demand may be affected by tariff factors. More policies to stabilize economic demand and market expectations are needed in the second half of the year, and the market is waiting for the policy cooperation of the Politburo meeting in July. The market risk preference is positive recently, and the stock index will fluctuate strongly in the short term [4].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term and medium - term view of TL2509 is "oscillation", with an intraday view of "oscillation on the weak side", and the overall view is "oscillation". The core logic is that the monetary policy environment is relatively loose, but the possibility of short - term interest rate cuts is low [1]. - For the TL, T, TF, and TS varieties, the intraday view is "oscillation on the weak side", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation". Yesterday, treasury bond futures declined slightly. Due to the recent easing of external risks, the risk appetite of the domestic stock market has quickly recovered, greatly weakening the hedging demand for treasury bonds. Coupled with the low short - term expectation of interest rate cuts, treasury bond futures are consolidating at high levels. However, the domestic inflation is weak, the endogenous growth momentum of domestic demand is insufficient, and external demand is vulnerable to tariff factors. A relatively loose monetary environment is still needed in the second half of the year to support demand and stabilize expectations. The medium - and long - term upward logic of treasury bond futures is still relatively solid. In general, the upside and downside of treasury bond futures are limited in the short term, and they will continue to oscillate and consolidate [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2509 variety, the short - term is "oscillation", the medium - term is "oscillation", the intraday is "oscillation on the weak side", and the overall view is "oscillation". The core logic is that the monetary policy environment is relatively loose, but the possibility of short - term interest rate cuts is low [1]. Main Variety Price and Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL, T, TF, and TS varieties, the intraday view is "oscillation on the weak side", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation". The driving logic is that yesterday's treasury bond futures declined slightly. The easing of external risks and the recovery of the domestic stock market's risk appetite weakened the hedging demand for treasury bonds. With low short - term interest rate cut expectations, treasury bond futures are at high - level consolidation. The weak domestic inflation, insufficient domestic demand growth momentum, and external demand vulnerability require a loose monetary environment in the second half of the year. The short - term movement of treasury bond futures is limited, and they will continue to oscillate [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term and intraday view of rebar 2510 is oscillating and slightly stronger, and the medium - term view is oscillating. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is the fermentation of positive expectations, leading to an upward oscillation of steel prices [2]. - Rebar shows a situation of weak supply and demand, with the fundamentals remaining unchanged. However, due to low inventory, minor real - world contradictions, the fermentation of recent policy benefits, positive market sentiment, and cost support from strong raw materials, steel prices are expected to maintain a slightly stronger short - term trend, with a focus on policy developments [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - For rebar 2510, the short - term view is oscillating and slightly stronger, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the intraday view is also oscillating and slightly stronger. The reference is to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line, and the core logic is the fermentation of positive expectations driving the upward oscillation of steel prices [2]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - On the supply side, construction steel mills have shifted production, rebar output has declined again, and supply has shrunk, but the sustainability is questionable. On the demand side, rebar demand continues its seasonal weakness, with weekly performance declining month - on - month, high - frequency trading volume significantly reduced, both at low levels in recent years, and the downstream industry shows no improvement, so the weak demand pattern remains unchanged [3]. - Overall, rebar has a situation of weak supply and demand, with unchanged fundamentals. During the off - season, steel prices are still prone to pressure. The relatively positive factors are low inventory, minor real - world contradictions, the fermentation of recent policy benefits, positive market sentiment, and cost support from strong raw materials. Steel prices are expected to maintain a slightly stronger short - term trend, and attention should be paid to policy conditions [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view for soybean meal, soybean oil, and palm oil in the short - term, medium - term, and intraday is "oscillating and slightly bullish" [5][7][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Meal (M) - **Time - frame Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating and slightly bullish; Reference view: oscillating and slightly bullish [5][7] - **Core Logic**: The market focuses on the US Department of Agriculture report tonight. Traders adjust their positions before the report, leading to a rebound in US soybean futures prices. The domestic soybean market supply remains abundant, and rising trade concerns boost market sentiment again. In the short - term, pay attention to the linkage effect of the US Department of Agriculture report. Under the influence of weak reality and trade concerns, soybean meal futures prices are expected to move in an oscillating and slightly bullish manner [5] Palm Oil (P) - **Time - frame Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating and slightly bullish; Reference view: oscillating and slightly bullish [7][8] - **Core Logic**: Palm oil was dragged down by the disappointing Malaysian palm report and weakened. The Malaysian palm report showed that the Malaysian palm inventory increased instead of decreasing, disappointing the market. Some funds left the market, causing the palm oil futures prices to decline. The strengthening of the neighboring soybean oil futures prices provides some support to palm oil futures prices. In the short - term, palm oil futures prices may enter a consolidation phase [8] Other Influencing Factors - **Soybean Meal 2509**: Influenced by import arrival rhythm, customs clearance inspection, oil refinery operation rhythm, and stocking demand [7] - **Soybean Oil 2509**: Affected by US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil refinery inventory [7] - **Palm 2509**: Influenced by biodiesel properties, Malaysian palm production and exports, Indonesian exports, main - producing countries' tariff policies, domestic arrival and inventory, and substitution demand [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2509 showed a trend of increasing volume and open interest, fluctuating strongly, and closing sharply higher. The price closed up 2.86% at 14,405 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread discount narrowed to 870 yuan/ton. Supported by positive factors such as enhanced domestic macro - atmosphere and better - than - expected new car production and sales data in the first half of the year, the contract is expected to maintain a fluctuating and strong trend [6]. - **Methanol**: On Thursday, the domestic methanol futures contract 2509 showed a trend of decreasing volume and open interest, fluctuating strongly, and closing slightly higher. The price closed up 1.40% at 2,398 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread discount widened to 65 yuan/ton. Benefiting from the sharp rise in domestic coal futures prices, the contract is expected to maintain a fluctuating and strong trend [6]. - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, the domestic crude oil futures contract 2508 showed a trend of decreasing volume and increasing open interest, fluctuating strongly, and closing slightly higher. The price closed up 0.33% at 512.3 yuan/barrel. With the Middle East geopolitical risks and the peak oil - using season in the Northern Hemisphere, domestic and foreign crude oil futures prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating and strong trend [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Rubber**: As of July 6, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 632,400 tons, a 0.05% increase. The semi - steel tire capacity utilization rate decreased by 6.27 percentage points week - on - week, and the full - steel tire capacity utilization rate decreased slightly. In June 2025, the automobile dealer inventory warning index was 56.6%. From January to June 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 15.621 million and 15.653 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year increases of 12.5% and 11.4% [9][10]. - **Methanol**: As of the week of July 4, 2025, the domestic methanol average operating rate was 85.20%. The weekly production was 1.9871 million tons. The inventories in East and South China ports were 499,700 tons. The inland methanol inventory was 352,300 tons [11][12][13]. - **Crude Oil**: As of the week of June 27, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the US was 432. The US commercial crude oil inventory was 418.95 million barrels. The WTI non - commercial net long positions increased slightly, while the Brent crude oil futures fund net long positions decreased significantly [14][15]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change | Futures Main Contract | Change | Basis | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Rubber | 13,950 yuan/ton | +0 yuan/ton | 14,405 yuan/ton | +360 yuan/ton | - 455 yuan/ton | - 360 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,412 yuan/ton | +12 yuan/ton | 2,398 yuan/ton | +26 yuan/ton | 14 yuan/ton | - 26 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 491.4 yuan/barrel | - 0.2 yuan/barrel | 511.2 yuan/barrel | - 0.4 yuan/barrel | - 19.8 yuan/barrel | +0.2 yuan/barrel | [17] 3.3 Relevant Charts - **Rubber**: The report includes charts such as rubber basis,上期所 rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, full - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [18][20][22] - **Methanol**: Charts include methanol basis, methanol 9 - 1 spread, methanol domestic port inventory, methanol inland social inventory, methanol - to - olefins operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [31][33][35] - **Crude Oil**: Charts include crude oil basis,上期所 crude oil futures inventory, US crude oil commercial inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change [44][46][48]

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Views - **Copper**: Copper prices stabilized and rebounded today with a continuous decline in open interest. The domestic macro - atmosphere improved, but the announcement of a 50% import tariff on copper by Trump put pressure on copper prices. The market may worry about the closure of the US import window and a potential decline in non - US copper demand. Technically, there is strong support at the June price center [5]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices increased with open interest last night and the main contract price fluctuated narrowly around 20,700 yuan today. The domestic macro - atmosphere improved, and the rise in the black and production - cut sectors was beneficial to aluminum prices. On July 10th, the electrolytic aluminum inventory decreased by 10,000 tons to 455,000 tons. With improved domestic macro - expectations, downstream industries' willingness to replenish inventory increased. Technically, attention should be paid to the pressure at the June high, and the price is expected to remain strong [6]. - **Nickel**: Nickel prices increased with open interest in the afternoon and the main contract price stood above 121,000 yuan. The domestic macro - atmosphere improved. Upstream mines were stable, downstream expectations improved, stainless steel strengthened, and downstream demand might improve, supporting nickel prices. Technically, the price stood above 120,000 yuan again and is expected to remain strong driven by the macro - environment [7]. Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: Trump announced on July 9th that a 50% tariff on all imported copper to the US would be imposed starting from August 1st. In Q2 2025, the I, II, and III phase concentrators of Kamoa - Kakula processed 3.62 million tons of ore, producing 112,000 tons of copper, a year - on - year increase of 11%. In the first half of 2025, it produced 245,000 tons of copper [9]. - **Aluminum**: The Shanghai Futures Exchange listed the first recycled metal variety, cast aluminum alloy futures and options, on June 10th. As of July 9th, after 22 trading days, the cast aluminum alloy futures had a cumulative trading volume of 205,700 lots, with a post - market open interest of 10,200 lots, equivalent to 102,000 tons of spot, accounting for about 27% of the domestic monthly consumption of cast aluminum alloy. The cast aluminum alloy options had a cumulative trading volume of 41,500 lots and a post - market open interest of 6,000 lots [9]. - **Nickel**: On July 10th, the mainstream reference contract for refined nickel in the Shanghai market was the SHFE nickel 2508 contract. The mainstream premium of Jinchuan electrolytic nickel was + 2050 yuan/ton at a price of 121,740 yuan/ton; that of Russian nickel was + 550 yuan/ton at 120,240 yuan/ton; that of Norwegian nickel was + 2750 yuan/ton at 122,440 yuan/ton; and that of nickel beans was - 900 yuan/ton at 118,790 yuan/ton [9]. Related Charts - **Copper**: Charts include copper basis, copper monthly spread, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper, overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [10][12][13] - **Aluminum**: Charts cover aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum, alumina trend, and alumina inventory [24][26][28] - **Nickel**: Charts involve nickel basis, nickel monthly spread, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, LME nickel trend, and nickel ore port inventory [35][37][39]

Report Information - Report Title: Steel & Iron Ore | Daily Report [3] - Report Date: July 10, 2025 [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - **Rebar**: The main contract price rose strongly with a daily increase of 1.89%, and both trading volume and open interest expanded. It shows a situation of weak supply and demand, and the fundamentals have not improved. However, the low inventory, recent policy benefits, positive market sentiment, and strong raw materials provide cost support. It is expected to maintain a relatively strong short - term trend, and policy conditions should be closely monitored [4][40]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The main contract price rose strongly with a daily increase of 2.16%, and both trading volume and open interest expanded. Supply and demand have weakened, the fundamentals are weakly stable, and inventory has slightly increased. Policy expectations and strong raw materials support the price to maintain a relatively strong trend, but overseas tariff risks should be guarded against [6][41]. - **Iron ore**: The main contract price rose significantly with a daily increase of 3.67%, trading volume increased while open interest was stable. Ore demand has some resilience, and optimistic sentiment persists, supporting the short - term upward trend. However, the fundamentals have not improved substantially in the context of weak supply and demand, and caution is needed regarding the upward height, as well as the possible shift of the trading logic to the industrial side [6][41]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics - **Real Estate**: In the first half of 2025, the land transfer fees for residential land in first - and second - tier cities increased by over 40%. The land transfer fees in 300 cities increased by 27.5% year - on - year, but the transaction area decreased by 5.5%. The concentration of land transfer fees in the top 20 cities increased to 68%, and the land transfer fees for residential - related land in Hangzhou and Beijing exceeded 10 billion yuan [8]. - **Automobile**: In the first half of 2025, China's automobile production and sales exceeded 15 million vehicles, with a year - on - year increase of over 10%. New energy vehicle production and sales reached 6.968 million and 6.937 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year increases of 41.4% and 40.3%. The export of new energy vehicles was 1.06 million, a year - on - year increase of 75.2% [9]. - **Mineral Exploration**: In the first half of 2025, 38 new mineral deposits were discovered in China, a year - on - year increase of 31%, including 25 large and medium - sized ones. Non - oil and gas mineral exploration investment reached 6.693 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 23.9%. Social capital investment in exploration reached 3.359 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 28.2%, accounting for 48% of the total [10]. 2. Spot Market - **Steel Products**: The spot prices of rebar, hot - rolled coil, Tangshan billet, and Zhangjiagang heavy scrap, as well as the prices of 61.5% PB powder, Tangshan iron concentrate powder, sea freight, SGX swaps, and the Platts Index, are provided, along with their price changes [11]. 3. Futures Market - **Contract Information**: The closing prices, price increases or decreases, trading volumes, and open interest of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore are presented [15]. 4. Related Charts - **Steel Inventory**: Charts show the weekly changes and total inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coil [17][18][20]. - **Iron Ore Inventory**: Charts display the inventory of 45 ports, 247 steel mills, and domestic mines, as well as their seasonal patterns and inventory changes [22][23][29]. - **Steel Mill Production**: Charts show the blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, profitability ratio, and the operating rate and profitability of electric furnaces of steel mills [32][34][35]. 5. Market Outlook - **Rebar**: Supply and demand are both weak, with production and demand decreasing. The low inventory, policy benefits, and strong raw materials support the short - term upward trend, but the fundamentals have not improved [40]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: Supply and demand have weakened, with production and demand decreasing. Policy expectations and strong raw materials support the price, but overseas tariff risks should be watched out for [41]. - **Iron Ore**: Supply and demand have weakened, with inventory increasing and consumption decreasing. The short - term upward trend is supported by demand resilience and optimistic sentiment, but the fundamentals have not improved substantially [41].