期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 铁矿石到货、发运周度数据（2025 年第 43 周） 一、简评 1、国内 47 港到货量为 2084.30 万吨，环比降 592.00 万吨，天气因素扰动下持续下降；其中澳矿到货 量环比降 243.20 万吨，巴西矿到货环比减 139.00 万吨，其他地区矿则是降 209.80 万吨。 2、海外矿石发运高位小幅回落，全球矿石发运总量为 3288.40 万吨，环比降 45.15 万吨。减量主要源 于非澳巴矿发运回落，环比降 145.90 万吨；而巴西矿发运增 100.96 万吨，维持相对高位，相应的澳矿高 位趋稳，环比微降 0.21 万吨。 3、按船期推算国内港口澳巴矿到货量将触底回升，海外矿石供应高位平稳运行。 二、矿石到货与发运数据 | | | | | | 铁矿石周度到货和发运数据 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | 本期值 | 上期值 | 周度变化 | 周度变化 | 上月末值 | 月度 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The methanol 2601 contract is expected to run weakly, with short - term and medium - term trends being oscillatory and oscillatory - weak respectively, and the intraday trend also being oscillatory - weak [1][5]. - Due to recent Sino - US economic and trade consultations and positive policies released by the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee, the macro sentiment has improved. The cost - driven logic of methanol is emerging as domestic coal futures prices have stabilized and rebounded, offsetting the bearish trend created by the weak supply - demand structure. It is expected that the domestic methanol futures 2601 contract may maintain an oscillatory - weak trend on Tuesday [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Time - cycle and Viewpoint Information - For the methanol 2601 contract, the short - term view is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory - weak, and the intraday view is also oscillatory - weak, with a reference view of weak operation. The core logic is the suppression of the weak fundamentals [1]. 3.2 Price and Market Information - On the night session of Monday this week, the domestic methanol futures 2601 contract maintained an oscillatory - weak trend, with the futures price slightly down 0.53% to 2261 yuan/ton [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information about the report industry investment ratings in the provided content. 2. Core Views - Gold: In the short - term, it is expected to decline; in the medium - term, it will fluctuate; and the intraday view is also a decline. The recommended strategy is to wait and see. The core logic is the expectation of Sino - US trade relaxation and the end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict, along with strong profit - taking intention of funds due to large price increases since September [1][3]. - Copper: In the short - term, it is expected to rise; in the medium - term, it will also rise; and the intraday view is a rise. The recommended strategy is to be bullish in the long - run. The core logic is the macro - economic loosening, mine - end production cuts, and a rapid increase in capital attention [1][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - Price Performance: Last week, the gold price first dropped by over 7% from the high and then rebounded. On Monday this week, the New York gold price once fell below $4000. The short - term strong pattern has been broken as it fell below the 10 - day moving average [3]. - Driving Factors: The decline is due to the expectation of Sino - US trade relaxation and the end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and strong profit - taking intention of funds after large price increases since September. Attention should be paid to the APEC meeting and the Fed's interest - rate meeting at the end of the month [3]. Copper - Price Performance: After the Fourth Plenary Session last week, the macro - environment improved. Copper prices increased with rising positions on Thursday and Friday. After the Sino - US trade consultation over the weekend, copper prices continued to rise with increasing positions. Since September 24th, copper prices have shown an upward trend after the news of mine - end contraction, and capital attention has increased rapidly [4]. - Driving Factors: The macro - environment at home and abroad has continued to improve, and the industrial supply has shrunk. Although the high inventory of overseas COMEX exerts pressure on copper prices, the overall macro - economic loosening, improved risk appetite, and supply contraction provide upward momentum for copper prices. Attention should be paid to the long - short game at the $11,000 mark of LME copper [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Today, Shanghai copper opened higher in the morning and maintained a strong intraday oscillation, with the open interest rising continuously. After the Fourth Plenary Session of the CPC Central Committee last week, the macro - atmosphere improved significantly. A preliminary consensus was reached in the Sino - US trade talks over the weekend. Against the backdrop of supply contraction in the industry and continuous improvement in both domestic and overseas macro - environments, copper prices continued to rise with increasing positions. Technically, attention should be paid to the pressure at the 2024 high of LME copper [6]. - Today, Shanghai aluminum opened higher in the morning and then retraced, and oscillated upwards during the day, with the open interest rising continuously. After the Fourth Plenary Session of the CPC Central Committee last week and a preliminary consensus in the Sino - US trade talks over the weekend, the domestic macro - environment continued to improve. The decline in domestic electrolytic aluminum and downstream aluminum rod inventories provided industrial support for aluminum prices. Technically, attention should be paid to the pressure at the November 2024 high [7]. - Today, Shanghai nickel oscillated, and the open interest decreased. Although the domestic and overseas macro - environments improved, nickel prices performed significantly weaker than the non - ferrous metal sector, mainly due to persistent industrial pressure and weak rebound momentum. Technically, continuous attention should be paid to the low - level technical support [8]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: As of October 27, the copper inventory in the mainstream regions of China monitored by SMM increased by 0.29 million tons week - on - week to 18.45 million tons. The core reason for the inventory build - up this week was the simultaneous arrival of imported and domestic supplies, combined with weak outbound shipments. Looking ahead, SMM expects a concentrated arrival of imported supplies, and the demand side will be suppressed by the rising copper prices, so the weekly copper inventory is expected to increase [10]. - **Nickel**: On October 27, Mysteel reported that the mainstream reference contract for refined nickel in the Shanghai market was the SHFE nickel 2511 contract. The mainstream premium of Jinchuan electrolytic nickel was +2550 yuan/ton, with a price of 124400 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of Russian nickel was +650 yuan/ton, with a price of 122500 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of Norwegian nickel was +2450 yuan/ton, with a price of 124300 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of nickel beans was +2550 yuan/ton, with a price of 124400 yuan/ton [11]. 2. Related Charts - **Copper**: The report includes charts such as copper basis, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper (social inventory + bonded area inventory), LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, overseas copper exchange inventory, SHFE warrant inventory, etc [12][13][14]. - **Aluminum**: The report includes charts such as aluminum premium, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, alumina inventory, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum (LME + COMEX), aluminum rod inventory, etc [26][27][29]. - **Nickel**: The report includes charts such as nickel basis, LME nickel inventory and cancelled warrant ratio, LME nickel price trend, SHFE nickel inventory, nickel ore port inventory, etc [37][39][40].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On October 27, 2025, all stock indices fluctuated and rose. The total trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets throughout the day was 2.3566 trillion yuan, an increase of 365 billion yuan compared to the previous day. With the conclusion of the China - US economic and trade consultations, external uncertainty risks eased, and investors' risk appetite recovered. The release of the communiqué of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee pointed out that the main goals during the 15th Five - Year Plan period include achieving significant results in high - quality development and greatly improving the level of scientific and technological self - reliance. Policy - driven positive expectations led to an increase in market risk appetite. However, as stock valuations rose, there was still a willingness among profit - taking funds to lock in profits. The future trend of the market depends on the game between the fermentation rhythm of policy - driven positive expectations and the profit - taking rhythm of funds. In general, the stock indices are expected to experience wide - range fluctuations in the short term. Currently, the implied volatility of options remains relatively stable. Considering the long - term upward trend of stock indices, the strategy of bull spread or covered call is maintained [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Option Indicators - On October 27, 2025, the 50ETF rose 0.75% to close at 3.216; the 300ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) rose 1.17% to close at 4.826; the 300ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) rose 1.24% to close at 4.977; the CSI 300 Index rose 1.19% to close at 4716.02; the CSI 1000 Index rose 1.03% to close at 7495.38; the 500ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) rose 1.48% to close at 7.478; the 500ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) rose 1.53% to close at 2.985; the GEM ETF rose 1.97% to close at 3.209; the Shenzhen 100ETF rose 1.34% to close at 3.617; the SSE 50 Index rose 0.78% to close at 3069.53; the STAR 50ETF rose 1.50% to close at 1.56; and the E Fund STAR 50ETF rose 1.48% to close at 1.51 [5]. - The trading volume PCR and open interest PCR of various options on October 27, 2025, and their changes compared to the previous trading day are provided in detail, including those of 50ETF options, SSE 300ETF options, SZSE 300ETF options, CSI 300 index options, CSI 1000 index options, SSE 500ETF options, SZSE 500ETF options, GEM ETF options, Shenzhen 100ETF options, SSE 50 index options, STAR 50ETF options, and E Fund STAR 50ETF options [6]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money options in November 2025 and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying assets of various options are presented, such as the 50ETF options, SSE 300ETF options, SZSE 300ETF options, CSI 300 index options, CSI 1000 index options, SSE 500ETF options, SZSE 500ETF options, GEM ETF options, Shenzhen 100ETF options, SSE 50 index options, STAR 50ETF options, and E Fund STAR 50ETF options [7][8]. 3.2 Relevant Charts - For each type of option (e.g., 50ETF options, SSE 300ETF options, SZSE 300ETF options, etc.), multiple charts are provided, including the underlying asset's trend chart, option volatility chart, trading volume PCR chart, open interest PCR chart, implied volatility curve chart, and chart of at - the - money implied volatility for different tenors [9][21][33].

投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 黑色金属 | 日报 2025 年 10 月 27 日 煤焦日报 专业研究·创造价值 乐观氛围仍存，煤焦偏强震荡 核心观点 焦炭：截至 10 月 24 日当周，独立焦化厂和钢厂焦化厂合计焦炭产量 110.72 万吨，周环比下降 0.51 万吨；247 家钢厂铁水日均产量 239.9 万 吨，周环比下降 1.05 万吨。库存方面，本周焦炭在上游和中游有所累 积，独立焦化厂累库 1.35 万吨，四大港口累库 4.94 万吨，而下游钢厂焦 炭库存周环比下降 6.28 万吨。整体来看，焦炭上下游博弈加剧，基本面 支撑不足，相对利 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For copper, the resonance of macro and industrial positives drives the copper price to rise with increasing positions. Since the news of mine - end contraction on September 24th, the copper price has been on an upward trend. Macro - easing and supply contraction provide upward momentum, while high overseas COMEX inventories exert pressure. Attention should be paid to the long - short game at the $11,000 mark for LME copper [4]. - For aluminum, the improvement in the macro environment and the strengthening of industrial support lead to the increase of aluminum price with increasing positions. Recently, the inventories of electrolytic aluminum and downstream aluminum rods have been decreasing, and the industry also supports the futures price. Attention can be paid to the support of the 5 - day moving average [5]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Macro Factors - Local time from October 25th to 26th, China and the US held economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur, reaching a preliminary consensus on multiple important economic and trade issues. The macro - market has warmed up, which is beneficial to the non - ferrous sector [9][11]. 2. Copper 2.1 Quantity and Price Trends - The copper price shows an upward trend with increasing positions. The report presents various data such as the price trends of Shanghai and LME copper, the Shanghai - LME ratio, and the long - short positions of COMEX non - commercial traders [13][14][20]. 2.2 Copper Mine Inventory Depletion - The report shows the trends of copper concentrate port inventory and TC processing fees, indicating the situation of copper mine inventory depletion [25][26]. 2.3 Electrolytic Copper Inventory - Data on domestic electrolytic copper social inventory and overseas futures inventory (COMEX + LME) are presented, reflecting the inventory situation of electrolytic copper [27][28]. 2.4 Downstream Initial Segment - The monthly capacity utilization rate of copper downstream is shown, including sectors like refined copper rods, copper tubes, copper bars, and copper strips [30][32]. 3. Aluminum 3.1 Quantity and Price Trends - The aluminum price rises with increasing positions. The report shows the price trends of domestic and LME aluminum, the Shanghai - LME ratio, and the premium and discount situations [30][31][34]. 3.2 Upstream Industrial Chain - The inventory of bauxite ports and the price of alumina are presented, reflecting the situation of the upstream industrial chain [37][38][44]. 3.3 Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory Depletion - Data on overseas electrolytic aluminum inventory (LME + COMEX) and domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory are shown, indicating the inventory depletion situation of electrolytic aluminum [42][43]. 3.4 Downstream Initial Segment - The capacity utilization rate of aluminum rods, the processing fees of 6063 aluminum rods, and the inventory of 6063 aluminum rods are presented, reflecting the situation of the downstream initial segment [45][49][51]. 4. Conclusion - Similar to the core views, for copper, macro - easing and supply contraction drive the price up, while high overseas inventories exert pressure. For aluminum, the macro environment warms up, and the industry provides support, with the price rising with increasing positions [52].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the gold price rose first and then fell, dropping by more than 7% from the high during the week and then stabilizing and rebounding. The decline was due to the easing of Sino-US trade tensions, the expectation of a ceasefire in Russia-Ukraine, and strong profit-taking intentions after the significant increase since September. The short - term easing of Sino - US trade friction reduced the safe - haven demand and increased market risk appetite, which was negative for the gold price. The lower - than - expected US CPI in September made the market expect a steady progress of US interest rate cuts, which was positive for the gold price. The sharp decline in the gold price increased the profit - taking intention of previous long positions, breaking the short - term strong pattern. Attention should be paid to the support of the 20 - day moving average [5][23] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Market Review 1.1 Weekly Trend - The report presents a graph showing the linkage between the US dollar index and COMEX gold futures closing price [9] 1.2 Indicator Changes | Indicator | 10/24 | 10/17 | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | COMEX Gold | 4,126.90 | 4,267.90 | -3.30% | | COMEX Silver | 48.41 | 50.63 | -4.38% | | SHFE Gold Main Contract | 938.10 | 999.80 | -6.17% | | SHFE Silver Main Contract | 11,332.00 | 12,249.00 | -7.49% | | US Dollar Index | 98.94 | 98.55 | 0.39% | | USD/CNH | 7.13 | 7.13 | -0.02% | | 10 - Year US Treasury Real Yield | 1.73 | 1.75 | -0.02 | | S&P 500 | 6,791.69 | 6,664.01 | 1.92% | | WTI Crude Oil Continuous | 61.44 | 57.64 | 6.59% | | COMEX Gold - Silver Ratio | 85.25 | 84.30 | 1.12% | | SHFE Gold - Silver Ratio | 82.78 | 81.62 | 1.42% | | SPDR Gold ETF | 1,046.93 | 1,047.21 | -0.28 | | iShare Gold ETF | 484.26 | 487.19 | -2.93% | [10] 2. Gold Price Rise and Fall - Last week, the US dollar index and Treasury yields stabilized and rebounded, and the gold price fell from a high level. The overall market risk appetite increased, and the risk - aversion sentiment decreased significantly [14][15] 3. Tracking of Other Indicators - Last week, international gold ETFs showed outflows. Precious metals rose and then fell, silver had a larger decline, and the gold - silver ratio fluctuated and rebounded [18][22] 4. Conclusion - The conclusion is consistent with the core viewpoints, emphasizing the reasons for the rise and fall of the gold price, the impact of Sino - US trade and US economic data on the gold price, and the change of the short - term pattern of the gold price, as well as suggesting to pay attention to the support of the 20 - day moving average [23]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract price of rebar strengthened again, with a daily increase of 1.54%. The demand for rebar has a seasonal rebound, but the supply has also increased. The fundamentals have not improved under the situation of both supply and demand increasing, and the pressure of inventory reduction remains. Supported by market sentiment and cost, the rebar price is expected to stabilize in a volatile manner. Attention should be paid to the demand performance [4]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil oscillated upwards, with a daily increase of 1.45%. The market sentiment has improved, and the price of hot - rolled coil has rebounded from a low level. However, the supply pressure remains, and there are concerns about demand. With cost support, the price is expected to continue the volatile and stable trend, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [4]. - The main contract price of iron ore strengthened, with a daily increase of 1.94%. The market sentiment has improved, and the iron ore price has rebounded from a low level. However, the supply of iron ore is at a high level, while the demand continues to weaken. The fundamentals of iron ore are not good under the situation of strong supply and weak demand. The high - valued iron ore price is still prone to pressure. The iron ore price is expected to continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished steel [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Dynamics - Regarding the Sino - US economic and trade consultations, the two sides agreed to further determine specific details and fulfill their respective domestic approval procedures [6]. - From January to September, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the national scale reached 5373.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.2%. Among them, the state - owned holding enterprises, joint - stock enterprises, foreign - invested and Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan - invested enterprises, and private enterprises had different profit growth rates [7]. - Tangshan Fengnan District launched a level II emergency response for heavy pollution weather from 12:00 on October 27, 2025, due to expected adverse diffusion conditions [8]. Spot Market - Rebar: The spot prices in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3180 yuan, 3140 yuan, and 3232 yuan respectively, with price changes of 10 yuan, 30 yuan, and 13 yuan [9]. - Hot - rolled coil: The spot prices in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3330 yuan, 3220 yuan, and 3349 yuan respectively, with price changes of 40 yuan, 20 yuan, and 16 yuan [9]. - Other: The price of Tangshan steel billet was 2960 yuan, with a change of 30 yuan; the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2160 yuan, with a change of 20 yuan. The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 793 yuan, with a change of 13 yuan; the price of Tangshan iron concentrate was 813 yuan, with no change [9]. Futures Market - Rebar: The closing price of the active contract was 3100 yuan, with a daily increase of 1.54%. The trading volume was 1,696,201 lots, an increase of 614,508 lots, and the open interest was 1,953,001 lots, a decrease of 97,544 lots [14]. - Hot - rolled coil: The closing price of the active contract was 3299 yuan, with a daily increase of 1.45%. The trading volume was 595,934 lots, an increase of 165,988 lots, and the open interest was 1,482,730 lots, a decrease of 18,766 lots [14]. - Iron ore: The closing price of the active contract was 786.5 yuan, with a daily increase of 1.94%. The trading volume was 363,294 lots, an increase of 52,955 lots, and the open interest was 558,846 lots, a decrease of 6,796 lots [14]. Relevant Charts - Steel inventory: There are charts showing the weekly changes and total inventory (steel mills + social inventory) of rebar and hot - rolled coil [15][16][18]. - Iron ore inventory: There are charts showing the inventory of 45 ports in China, the inventory of 247 steel mills, etc. [20][21][26]. - Steel mill production: There are charts showing the blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, independent electric furnace operating rate, and profitability of steel mills [29][31][32]. Future Outlook - Rebar: The supply and demand have both increased. The weekly output of rebar has increased by 5.91 tons, and the demand has a seasonal rebound. However, the fundamentals have not improved, and the inventory reduction pressure remains. With market sentiment and cost support, the price is expected to stabilize in a volatile manner [36]. - Hot - rolled coil: The supply and demand pattern has improved slightly. The weekly output has increased by 0.62 tons, and the demand has performed well. However, there are concerns about demand. With cost support, the price is expected to continue the volatile and stable trend [36]. - Iron ore: The supply - demand pattern has continued to weaken. The demand for iron ore is expected to continue to decrease, while the supply is at a high level. The iron ore price is expected to continue to oscillate [37].

Group 1: Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View - On October 27, 2025, treasury bond futures fluctuated and closed up. Due to the persistent lack of effective domestic demand, a moderately loose monetary environment is needed in the medium to long term to stabilize the demand side, providing strong support for treasury bond futures. However, there is no strong need for a comprehensive interest rate cut in the short term. With the easing of external uncertainties, the warming of domestic policy benefits, and the rising risk appetite in the stock market, the demand for treasury bonds is suppressed. Overall, the upside and downside of treasury bond futures are limited in the short term, mainly fluctuating and consolidating [4]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Industry News and Related Charts - On October 27, the People's Bank of China conducted 337.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed - rate and quantity - tendered method, with an operating interest rate of 1.40%, a bid volume of 337.3 billion yuan, and a winning volume of 337.3 billion yuan. On the same day, 189 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured, resulting in a net investment of 148.3 billion yuan [6].