Report Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating provided in the report. Core View - The report anticipates that on Wednesday, October 29, 2025, both the Shanghai Rubber Futures 2601 contract and the Synthetic Rubber Futures 2512 contract will likely exhibit a weak and volatile trend [1][5][7]. Summary by Variety Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term and intraday views are "volatile", and the medium - term view is "weakly volatile". The reference view is "weakly running" [1][5]. - **Core Logic**: Positive policies were released after the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee, and the China - US economic and trade talks sent positive signals, improving the macro - sentiment. The better - than - expected domestic new car production and sales data in September also supported the industry factors. However, as the previous positive factors were digested, the upward momentum of rubber prices weakened. On Tuesday night, the 2601 contract of Shanghai rubber futures showed a volatile and stable trend, with the price slightly rising 0.06% to 15,395 yuan/ton [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term and intraday views are "volatile", and the medium - term view is "weakly volatile". The reference view is "weakly running" [1][7]. - **Core Logic**: The supply pressure of synthetic rubber continued to increase. In 2025, the planned new capacity of domestic butadiene was 980,000 tons, and the total capacity was expected to reach 7.677 million tons/year, a year - on - year increase of 14.6%. The rapid expansion of butadiene supply provided sufficient raw materials for synthetic rubber production but also exacerbated the over - supply pressure in the industry chain. Even during the period of the strongest demand expectation this year, synthetic rubber prices did not rebound significantly, indicating fundamental weakness. On Tuesday night, the 2512 contract of domestic synthetic rubber futures showed a weak downward trend, with the price dropping 2.62% to 10,585 yuan/ton [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The steel price of rebar is expected to continue the volatile and stable trend, and attention should be paid to the demand performance. Market sentiment is positive, and the strong raw materials provide cost support, but the improvement of the rebar fundamentals is limited under the situation of increasing supply and demand, and the pressure of inventory reduction remains [1][2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the rebar 2601 contract, the short - term (within one week) and medium - term (two weeks to one month) trends are both volatile, and the intraday trend is weakly volatile. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is that market sentiment is positive, and the steel market is volatile and stable [1]. Market Driving Logic - Both the supply and demand sides of rebar have increased. The production of construction steel mills has increased, and the weekly output has rebounded with relatively high inventory, increasing the supply pressure. The demand for rebar has continued to improve seasonally, but it is still at a low level in the same period in recent years, and the downstream situation has not improved, so the quality of the peak season is questionable. Under the situation of increasing supply and demand, the improvement of the rebar fundamentals is limited, the pressure of inventory reduction remains, and the steel price is still prone to pressure [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore market sentiment is currently warming, and the futures price has returned to a high level. However, with high supply and weakening demand, the fundamentals have not improved, and the upward driving force is not strong. The subsequent trend will mainly shift to high - level volatile operation, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished steel products [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2601 contract, the short - term and medium - term trends are expected to be volatile, while the intraday trend is expected to be weakly volatile. Attention should be paid to the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is that the bullish factors are dominant, and the ore price has returned to a high level [1] 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has changed little. Steel mill production is weakening, terminal consumption is continuously declining, and the contradictions in the steel market are not alleviated, so the demand for ore will continue to weaken, dragging down the steel price. Due to weather factors, the arrival of ore at domestic ports has unexpectedly decreased, but overseas ore shipments remain high. According to the shipping schedule, the subsequent arrival will return to a high level. Coupled with stable domestic ore production, the supply pressure of ore is relatively large [2]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Views - The overall view for the agricultural commodity futures sector is a mix of weak - side oscillations and no clear trends in the short - to - medium term for most of the main varieties [5][6][7]. - For the short - to - medium term, the market trends of these varieties will be affected by factors such as Sino - US relations, import and supply rhythms, policies, and inventory levels [6]. 3) Summary by Variety **Soybean Meal (M)** - **Views**: Short - term: oscillatory; Medium - term: oscillatory; Intraday: oscillatory and weak. The reference view is oscillatory and weak [5][6]. - **Core Logic**: Driven by the expectation of China resuming US soybean purchases, the far - month contracts of US soybeans fell after hitting the $11 mark. The future market trend depends on details of the Sino - US trade agreement, South American weather, and China's actual purchase rhythm. The cost - driven logic has replaced the supply logic in the short - term soybean meal market, and there is a risk of decline after the futures price rebounds close to the upper limit of the oscillation range [5]. **Palm Oil (P)** - **Views**: Short - term: weak; Medium - term: oscillatory; Intraday: oscillatory and weak. The reference view is oscillatory and weak [6][7]. - **Core Logic**: The overall weakness in the oil market is due to high inventory pressure and weak demand. Malaysian palm oil futures have fallen for three consecutive days, hitting a near - four - week low. The core contradiction in the palm oil market is the significant inventory pressure in Malaysia and weak domestic demand. The macro - level positive of eased Sino - US economic and trade relations cannot reverse the weak fundamentals. The short - term market shows a pattern of strong meal and weak oil, and palm oil futures prices remain under pressure [7]. **Soybean Oil (Y)** - **Views**: Short - term: oscillatory; Medium - term: oscillatory; Intraday: oscillatory and weak. The reference view is oscillatory and weak [6]. - **Core Logic**: Influenced by Sino - US relations, US biofuel policies, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil refinery inventory [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The crude oil market is expected to be in a weak and volatile trend in the short - to - medium term. With the weakening of previous macro - positive driving factors and geopolitical factors, the market has returned to being dominated by supply - and - demand fundamentals. Currently, both macro and industrial factors in the crude oil market remain weak. The production increase measures of OPEC+ countries will add to the supply pressure, and the domestic crude oil futures 2512 contract is likely to maintain a weak and volatile trend on Wednesday [1][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Content Price and Trend - The domestic crude oil futures 2512 contract is in a state of "weak operation". In the short term, the view is "volatile", in the medium term it is "weak and volatile", and on the day it is also "weak and volatile". The core logic is that the geopolitical premium has faded, and the market has returned to supply - and - demand fundamentals [1][5] Market Driving Factors - After the weakening of previous macro - positive driving factors and geopolitical factors, the crude oil market has returned to being driven by supply - and - demand fundamentals. The current macro and industrial factors in the crude oil market are still weak [5] Supply - Side Situation - Eight OPEC+ oil - producing countries have decided to increase production in November, with an additional output of 137,000 barrels per day, which is seen as an attempt to seek a larger market share, and this has increased the supply pressure in the oil market [5] Market Performance - On Tuesday night, the domestic crude oil futures 2512 contract returned to a weak state, with the futures price closing down 1.78% to 458.1 yuan per barrel [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For gold, short - term is expected to decline, medium - term to oscillate, and the reference view is to wait and see due to the expected easing of Sino - US trade and Russia - Ukraine cease - fire, along with strong profit - taking intention of funds [1][3] - For copper, short - term and medium - term are expected to rise, and the reference view is to be strong in the long - run because of macro - economic easing, mine - end production cuts, and a rapid increase in capital attention [1][4] Group 3: Summary by Variety Gold - **Short - term**: Expected to decline, with the short - term strong pattern broken as the price fell below the 10 - day moving average [1][3] - **Medium - term**: Expected to oscillate [1][3] - **Core Logic**: The decline is due to the expected easing of Sino - US trade and Russia - Ukraine cease - fire, and strong profit - taking intention after a large increase since September. The price has fallen below $4000 and $3900. Attention should be paid to the APEC meeting and the Fed's interest - rate meeting at the end of the month [3] Copper - **Short - term and Medium - term**: Expected to rise [1][4] - **Core Logic**: The price dropped yesterday following the weakening of the macro - environment and the sharp decline of gold price, but rebounded quickly at night. The gold - copper ratio has dropped significantly. Attention should be paid to the long - short game at the $11000 level of LME copper [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The short - term view of TL2512 is volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, and the intraday view is weakly volatile, with an overall view of volatility due to a decline in short - term interest rate cut expectations and the existence of medium - to - long - term easing expectations [1]. - For the main varieties (TL, T, TF, TS) in the financial futures stock index sector, the intraday view is weakly volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, and the reference view is volatile. In the long run, due to insufficient effective domestic demand, a relatively loose monetary environment is needed to stabilize the demand side, providing strong support for Treasury bond futures. However, the internal economic data is resilient, and external uncertainties have eased, so there is no strong need for an immediate full - scale interest rate cut, resulting in limited upward momentum for Treasury bond futures. Overall, the short - term upside and downside of Treasury bond futures are limited, and they will mainly fluctuate and consolidate [5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL2512, the short - term, medium - term, and overall views are volatile, and the intraday view is weakly volatile. The core logic is that short - term interest rate cut expectations have declined, while medium - to - long - term easing expectations still exist [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, TS, the intraday view is weakly volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, and the reference view is volatile. Yesterday, Treasury bond futures fluctuated and closed higher. Macroscopically, due to persistent insufficient effective domestic demand, a relatively loose monetary environment is needed in the long run to stabilize the demand side, strongly supporting Treasury bond futures. However, the internal economic data is resilient, and external uncertainties have eased, reducing the short - term necessity for a full - scale interest rate cut and limiting the upward momentum of Treasury bond futures. In the short term, the upside and downside of Treasury bond futures are limited, and they will mainly fluctuate and consolidate [5].

Group 1: Report on Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of the financial futures stock index sector is wide - range oscillation, the medium - term view is upward, and the intraday view is oscillating strongly [1][5] - The core logic is the game between the profit - taking intention of funds and the expectation of policy benefits. With the easing of external uncertainties and the release of the communiqué of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee, the expectation of policy benefits rises, driving up the risk preference of the stock market. Meanwhile, as the stock valuation rises, the profit - taking intention of profitable funds still exists [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2512, the short - term is oscillating, the medium - term is upward, the intraday is oscillating strongly, and the reference view is wide - range oscillation. The core logic is the game between the profit - taking intention of funds and the expectation of policy benefits [1] Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IF, IH, IC, IM, the intraday view is oscillating strongly, the medium - term view is upward, and the reference view is wide - range oscillation. The core logic is the same as above. The total trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen and Beijing stock markets was 2165.3 billion yuan yesterday, a decrease of 191.3 billion yuan from the previous day [5]

期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货甲醇早报-2025-10-29 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 甲醇 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 偏弱基本面压制，甲醇震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 核心逻辑：随着前期宏观利多驱动因素减弱以后，甲醇偏弱供需基本面重新主导盘面。当前国内甲 醇开工率和周度产量依然维持偏高水平，外部进口压力持续增大，年内进口峰值已经到来，由此导 致节前华东和华南港口甲醇库存居高不下。虽然下游需求逐渐好转，不过烯烃盘面利润不佳，弱需 现状仍待改善。在甲醇供应过剩的背景 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The "15th Five - Year Plan" proposes to develop strategic emerging industries, achieve key technological breakthroughs, boost consumption, and improve the capital market [2][17] - The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy, consolidate the positive momentum of the capital market, and study and reserve new policy measures [2][19] - The development trends of various industries such as metals, energy, and agriculture show different characteristics, including price changes, production changes, and trade situations [5][10][13] - The bond market shows mixed trends, with different performances in yields and prices of various bonds, and different views on the impact of the central bank's resumption of treasury bond trading [25][31] - The stock market has a volatile trend, with A - shares and Hong Kong stocks showing different performances, and the regulatory authorities plan to promote the reform of the capital market [35] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data - GDP in Q3 2025 had a year - on - year growth rate of 4.8%, down from 5.2% in the previous quarter but higher than 4.6% in the same period last year [1] - Manufacturing PMI in September 2025 was 49.8%, up from 49.4% in the previous month and the same as last year [1] - Non - manufacturing PMI in September 2025 was 50.0%, down from 50.3% in the previous month and the same as last year [1] - Other macro - economic indicators such as social financing scale, M0, M1, M2, etc. also showed different changes [1] 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - The "15th Five - Year Plan" aims to develop strategic emerging industries and achieve technological breakthroughs [2] - The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy and consolidate the capital market [2] - Regarding the EU - China trade negotiation on rare earths, China hopes for dialogue and a non - discriminatory business environment [3] - On October 28, 41 domestic commodity varieties had positive basis, and 28 had negative basis [3] - A large - scale transaction in the interest rate market may indicate a change in the trend and the end of the Fed's QT policy [4] 3.2.2 Metals - The tungsten market has resumed its upward trend, with prices of black tungsten concentrate, APT, and tungsten powder rising [5] - As of October 27, the inventories of zinc, lead, copper, etc. in the London Metal Exchange showed different changes [5] - On October 27, the world's largest gold ETF had a net capital outflow of $1 billion [6] - The Bank of Korea is considering buying gold for the first time since 2013 [6] 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - Qingshan Steel plans to cut production by over 300,000 tons from November 2025 to January 2026 [7][8] - The US and Japan reached an agreement on ensuring the supply of key minerals and rare earths [8] - Indonesia issued a copper concentrate export license to Amman Mining [9] - The use of coal has reached a record high [9] - Vale is satisfied with its copper mining results [9] 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - The Xinjiang Jimsar shale oil demonstration area has an annual output exceeding 1.5 million tons for the first time [10] - In the first three quarters of 2025, Russia's natural gas exports to Europe decreased significantly [10] - The IEA predicts that LNG prices may decline in the next 5 years [10] - Indian refiners have suspended new orders for Russian oil [11] - Saudi Aramco expects daily oil demand growth of 1.1 - 1.4 million barrels next year and plans to invest nearly $2 billion in digital companies in the next three years [12] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - China's grain is expected to have a good harvest this year, and the supply of "vegetable basket" products is sufficient [13] - Peruvian coffee beans will participate in the 8th CIIE [13] - Indonesia's palm oil production is expected to increase by 10% in 2025 [13] - Japan promised to buy $8 billion of soybeans and other commodities from the US [13] - As of October 26, the EU's soft wheat exports in the 2025/26 season decreased compared with the same period last year [13] - Brazil's soybean meal exports in October are expected to be 2.08 million tons [14] 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - On October 28, the central bank conducted 475.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 315.8 billion yuan [16] 3.3.2 Important News - The "15th Five - Year Plan" has set various economic and social development goals and measures [17][18][19] - The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy and strengthen financial supervision [19] - China and ASEAN signed an upgrade protocol for the FTA [19] - China hopes to resolve Sino - EU trade differences through dialogue [20] - China is committed to opening up the financial sector [20] - FAB will become the second RMB clearing bank in the UAE [20] - In 2024, Guangdong had the highest number of births and the largest population increase [21] - A Shanghai financial court made a judgment in a bond false statement case [21] - China's real estate industry is undergoing anti - corruption and rectification [22] - The US Senate failed to pass a bill to end the government shutdown [22] - Some bonds were suspended, and some companies had new borrowings or won land bids [23] - Some companies' credit ratings were adjusted [24] 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - The long - term bond yields in the Chinese bond market rebounded slightly, and treasury bond futures rose [25] - The bond prices in the exchange market showed different trends [25] - The convertible bond index declined [26] - The money market interest rates showed mixed trends [26][27] - The yields of some financial bonds were determined [27] - European and US bond yields showed different trends [28] 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose, and the RMB central parity rate also rose [29] - The US dollar index declined, and non - US currencies showed different trends [29] 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - CITIC Securities believes that the current term spread has limited upward space [31] - CITIC Securities believes that the central bank's resumption of treasury bond trading is to cooperate with fiscal policy, and the bond market may decline in the short term [31] - Huatai Fixed Income believes that the bond market is likely to react once, and the central bank's treasury bond trading may be normalized [31] - Changjiang Fixed Income believes that the central bank cares about liquidity, and the cross - month capital may be stable with some fluctuations [32] - Guosheng Fixed Income believes that the central bank's treasury bond trading may reduce the possibility of a reserve requirement ratio cut and benefit the bond market [32] - Shenwan Fixed Income believes that the central bank's treasury bond trading may have a short - term positive impact on the bond market [32] 3.3.6 Today's Reminders - On October 29, 234 bonds were listed, 119 bonds were issued, 124 bonds were paid, and 198 bonds were redeemed [34] 3.4 Stock Market News - The CSRC will promote the reform of the capital market and strengthen the fight against cross - border illegal activities [35] - The first batch of newly registered enterprises in the Sci - tech Innovation Growth Layer was listed, and the SSE will support more high - tech fields [35] - A - shares fluctuated and closed down, with military stocks rising and some sectors falling [35] - The top ten heavy - holding stocks of public funds in Q3 2025 were released, with some changes compared with Q2 [35][36] - The Hong Kong stock market closed down, with southbound funds having a net purchase of HK$2.258 billion [36]