策略参考 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 4 月 29 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为偏弱，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为偏强。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏弱 核心逻辑：随着国内供应预期改善，现货华北、东北现货价格延续大幅下跌趋势。豆类期价整体跌幅明显 扩大。后期进口大豆到港量迎来峰值，油厂采购前置化解供应短缺风险，下游集中备货过后，后续备货心 态回归谨慎。随着市场预期转向，豆类期价累积的风险溢价持续回吐风险，价格明显偏弱。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前一日夜盘收盘价为基准) 品种 短期 中期 日内 观点参考 核心逻辑概要 <点击目录链接，直达品种 策略解 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 4 月 29 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2506 | 下跌 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 短线看弱 | 美国关税政策预期放松，期价累 | | | | | | 偏弱 | | 计涨幅较大，多头了结意愿强 | | 镍 | 2506 | 下跌 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 观望 | 上游镍矿强势，下游不锈钢弱势 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 专业研究·创造价值 1 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The iron ore 2509 contract is expected to be under pressure, with short - term, medium - term trends being volatile and the intraday trend being weakly volatile. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the MA5 line. The core logic is that the supply has returned to a high level, and the ore price is under pressure [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Variety View Reference - For the iron ore 2509 contract, the short - term and medium - term trends are "volatile", and the intraday trend is "weakly volatile". The view reference is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line, and the core logic is that the supply has returned to a high level, causing the ore price to be under pressure [1]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - High rigid demand combined with pre - holiday restocking has led to good ore demand, providing support for the ore price. However, it has not led to inventory depletion, mainly due to the high ore supply. The supply recovery expectation remains, while there are concerns about the demand reaching its peak. The ore fundamentals have not improved substantially, and the ore price is expected to continue to be under pressure. Attention should be paid to the performance of finished steel [2].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 运筹帷幄 决胜千里 宝城期货品种套利数据日报（2025 年 4 月 29 日） 一、动力煤 | 商品 | | | 动力煤（元/吨） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 基差 | 5月-1月 | 9月-1月 | 9月-5月 | | 2025/04/28 | -147.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/04/25 | -146.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/04/24 | -144.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/04/23 | -143.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/04/22 | -141.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 450 550 650 750 850 950 1050 动力煤基差 基差（右） 动力煤现货价:秦皇岛 期货结算价(活跃合约) :动力煤 www.bcqhgs.com 1 杭州市求是路8号公元大厦东南裙楼 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View The report predicts that the domestic crude oil futures contract 2506 will maintain a weak and volatile trend. The main reasons are the uncertainty of OPEC+'s production plan for June in the May meeting, which increases concerns about oversupply, and the reduction in oil demand due to power outages in Spain and Portugal, along with the release of strategic oil reserves by the Spanish government [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents - **Price and Trend** - The domestic crude oil futures 2506 contract closed down 1.15% at 488.5 yuan/barrel overnight on Monday [5]. - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of crude oil 2506 are all weak and volatile, with a reference view of weak operation [1][5]. - **Driving Logic** - The OPEC+ May meeting's uncertainty about the June production plan has led to concerns about increased oversupply pressure [5]. - Power outages in Spain and Portugal caused several refineries to close. Spain will release three - day strategic oil reserves due to about one - tenth of European oil consumption in these two countries, resulting in weakened demand and expected supply increase [5].

时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 甲醇 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱运行 | 反弹阻力较大，甲醇震荡偏弱 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 偏弱 | 日内 偏弱 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货甲醇早报-2025-04-29 品种晨会纪要 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 甲醇（MA） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡偏弱 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：上周末伊朗港口爆炸事件对该国甲醇出口影响有限，海外供应依然维持有效输出。今年 以来国内煤制甲醇生产利润较高，导致春季检修阶段，甲醇开工率和周度产量居高不下，内部供应 压力较大。不过随着下游 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Report's Core View - For both coking coal and coke, the short - term and medium - term views are "oscillation", and the intraday views are "oscillation and weakening". The reference view for both is an "oscillation approach" [1] Group 3: Summary by Variety Coking Coal (JM) - **Price and Cost**: The latest quotation of Mongolian coal at Ganqimaodu Port is 1035.0 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week flat, and the equivalent futures warehouse receipt cost is about 1008 yuan/ton [5] - **Supply Situation**: In March and April, the coal mine safety supervision environment in Shanxi was relatively stable, and the output remained at a high level. In March, Shanxi's raw coal output increased by 19.1% year - on - year, and in April, it continued to operate at a high level. In April, the Mongolian coal import volume improved significantly compared with March. The supply is still loose, and the fundamentals are overall bearish [5] - **Market Performance**: The supply - side pressure is high, the market sentiment is bearish, the futures are oscillating at a low level, and it drags down the coke trend. Attention should be paid to the introduction of domestic demand - boosting policies [5] Coke (J) - **Price and Cost**: The latest quotation of quasi - first - class flat - price coke at Rizhao Port is 1440 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week flat, and the equivalent futures warehouse receipt cost is about 1583 yuan/ton [6] - **Supply - Demand Situation**: This week, coke continued the pattern of increasing both supply and demand, and the increase in the demand side was obvious. The short - term fundamentals are okay, and the futures main contract oscillates at a low level [6] - **Macro Factors**: In April, Sino - US trade frictions were repeated, and there is strong uncertainty about the future development of tariff disputes. China's domestic demand - boosting policies are expected to be introduced, and the Politburo meeting on April 25 proposed to implement more proactive and effective macro - policies [6] - **Market Outlook**: Although the short - term fundamentals are good, there is an expectation that hot metal production will peak and decline, and the coking coal supply is loose. The market sentiment is pessimistic. It is expected that coke futures will oscillate at a low level in the near future. Attention should be paid to the changes in domestic and international macro - atmosphere [6]

宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 4 月 29 日） | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2510 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线支撑 | 供需格局弱稳，钢价低位震荡 | 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 ◼ 品种观点参考 说明： 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 | | 获 取 | 每 日 | 期 货 观 点 | 推 送 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 服 务 国 家 | 走 向 世 界 | | | 诚 信 至 上 | 合 规 经 营 | | 知行合一 | 专 业 敬 业 | | | 严谨管理 | ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货股指期货早报（2025 年 4 月 29 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2506 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡偏强 | 区间震荡 | 政策面利好预期与外部不确定性 风险并存 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：区间震荡 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 专业研究·创造价值 1/2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 观点参考 观点参考 获 取 每 日 期 货 观 点 推 送 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report suggests that the domestic coal price decline slowed in April, but the market sentiment remained bearish with accumulating negative factors. The supply - side pressure of thermal coal has not eased due to increased domestic production despite a year - on - year decline in coal imports. The demand is expected to remain low in May as non - power terminal exports are worried about Sino - US trade frictions, and clean energy is seasonally strengthening. The high inventory at northern ports and sufficient coal availability days at power plants will limit the rebound of coal prices during the replenishment period. Although the peak - summer replenishment may stop the price decline, the thermal coal price is likely to remain weakly volatile in the short term [4]. 3. Summary by Related Content - **Price and Market Condition**: In April, the decline of domestic coal prices slowed, but the market atmosphere was still bearish, and negative factors were piling up [4]. - **Supply - side Factors**: Coal imports decreased year - on - year, but domestic production increased, so the supply - side pressure of thermal coal did not ease [4]. - **Demand - side Factors**: Domestic demand was mediocre, and Sino - US trade frictions from late March to April raised concerns about non - power terminal exports. The growth of new wind and photovoltaic units was rapid, and the total amount of four clean energies will seasonally strengthen from May to June. In May, the demand for thermal coal for power generation will remain low [4]. - **Inventory Factors**: The total inventory at northern ports is much higher than the same period in previous years, and the available coal days at power plants are generally sufficient, which will significantly limit the coal price rebound during the replenishment period [4]. - **Price Outlook**: The peak - summer replenishment in the industrial chain may stop the coal price decline, but the thermal coal price is expected to remain weakly volatile in the short term [4].