1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the context of trade conflicts, it is expected that starting from the April PMI, data will gradually reflect the pressure, increasing the urgency to boost domestic demand. A loose monetary environment is needed, and short - and medium - term treasury bond yields are expected to decline significantly, followed by long - term bond yields potentially breaking previous lows [28]. - The bond market may evolve in a volatile manner, more likely to break downward. Long - term bonds are more cost - effective, and it is recommended to maintain a duration above neutral [28]. - For REITs, project fundamentals show increasing differentiation. In the second quarter, rental housing, consumption, and public utility projects may maintain resilience, while industrial parks and logistics warehousing projects may face headwinds [28]. - The current fundamentals are favorable for the bond market. It is advisable to buy on dips. Interest rates are expected to be narrowly volatile before the end of April and more volatile from May to June, with a possibility of breaking previous lows [29]. - Since April, external tariff shocks have affected domestic manufacturing and emerging industries. In the future, attention should be paid to the recovery of external demand, the development of emerging markets, and the implementation of domestic stimulus policies [29]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data Quick View - In March 2025, GDP at constant prices had a quarterly year - on - year growth of 5.40%, the same as the previous period and slightly higher than the same period last year [1]. - The manufacturing PMI was 50.50%, up from the previous period but lower than the same period last year; the non - manufacturing PMI for business activities was 50.80%, also up from the previous period but lower than the same period last year [1]. - The Caixin manufacturing PMI was 51.20%, and the Caixin service industry business activity index was 51.90%, both showing an upward trend from the previous period [1]. - The year - on - year growth rates of M0, M1, and M2 in March 2025 were 11.50%, 1.60%, and 7.00% respectively, with M0 and M1 increasing compared to the previous period, while M2 remained the same [1]. - The CPI in March 2025 had a year - on - year decline of 0.10%, narrowing from the previous period; the PPI had a year - on - year decline of 2.50%, slightly deeper than the previous period [1]. - The cumulative year - on - year growth rates of fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) and total retail sales of consumer goods were 4.20% and 4.60% respectively, showing a slight upward trend compared to the previous period [1]. - The year - on - year growth rates of export and import values in March 2025 were 12.40% and - 4.30% respectively, with exports rebounding strongly from the previous period and imports declining [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - China will introduce measures to stabilize employment, the economy, and promote high - quality development, including supporting employment, stabilizing foreign trade, promoting consumption, expanding effective investment, and creating a stable development environment [2][3][17]. - On April 28, 38 domestic commodity varieties had positive basis, and 24 had negative basis. Yarn, Zhengzhou cotton, and pulp had the largest basis, while butadiene rubber, strong wheat, and common wheat had the smallest [4]. 3.2.2 Metals - Sichuan Yajiang has proven lithium ore resources of 2.2 billion tons, ranking first in the world in terms of proven pegmatite - type lithium ore reserves [6]. - In the first quarter of 2025, China increased its gold reserves by 12.75 tons, with a total of 2292.33 tons by the end of March. Domestic raw - material gold production increased by 1.49% year - on - year, while consumption decreased by 5.96%. The trading volume and turnover of the domestic gold market increased significantly [6]. - The global refined copper market is expected to have a supply surplus of 28.9 tons in 2025 and 20.9 tons in 2026 [6]. 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - The Indian government is working to ensure a fair competition environment to prevent the impact of cheap imports on the steel market, and the country's steel ministry plans to increase coking coal imports [8][9]. - The US and Ukraine may sign a mineral framework agreement this week [10]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - Sinopec's net profit attributable to shareholders in the first quarter of 2025 was RMB 13.975 billion, and the net cash flow from operating activities increased by RMB 21.9 billion year - on - year [12]. - The National Energy Administration issued measures to promote the development of the private economy in the energy sector, including exploring financing channels and supporting private enterprises in the energy field [12]. - In March 2025, there were 4455 new on - record new - energy power generation projects (excluding household photovoltaic) in China, mainly photovoltaic projects [12]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - Malaysia exported 923,893 tons of palm oil from April 1 to 25 [14]. - Japan may increase imports of US - produced corn as a bargaining chip in tariff negotiations [14]. 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - On April 28, the central bank conducted 279 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 103 billion yuan [16]. 3.3.2 Key News - China will introduce measures to stabilize employment, the economy, and promote high - quality development, with specific measures in multiple aspects [17]. - The central bank may cut reserve requirements and interest rates in a timely manner, and is researching new policy tools [17]. - In March 2025, local governments in China issued a total of 978.8 billion yuan in bonds, including 174.8 billion yuan in general bonds and 804 billion yuan in special bonds [18]. 3.3.3 Bond Market Review - Treasury bond futures mostly rose, and the yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market mostly declined. The inter - bank market funds were generally stable [23]. - The CSI Convertible Bond Index closed down 0.54%, and the Wande Convertible Bond Equal - Weighted Index fell 0.86% [24]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.2995, down 163 points from the previous trading day. The RMB central parity rate against the US dollar was raised by 23 points [27]. - The US dollar index fell 0.65%, and non - US currencies generally rose [27]. 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - Different securities firms have different views on the bond market and REITs, including yield trends, investment strategies, and project fundamentals [28][29]. 3.3.6 Today's Reminders - On April 29, 217 bonds were listed, 88 bonds were issued, 132 bonds were settled, and 302 bonds repaid principal and interest [30]. 3.4 Stock Market Key News - A - share major indices adjusted, with consumption and real - estate sectors performing poorly and bank stocks strengthening. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.2%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.62%, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.65% [31][32]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell 0.04%, and the Hang Seng Technology Index rose 0.12% [32]. - The Taiwan Weighted Index rose 0.81% [33]. - As of April 28, 4706 A - share listed companies disclosed their first - quarter reports, with about 45.07% achieving year - on - year profit growth [33]. - Since April, 236 A - share companies have been surveyed by foreign institutions, mainly in sectors such as overseas expansion, consumer electronics, and pet economy [33]. - Multiple fund companies received notices of index license fee reduction, with the fee generally discounted by 20% [34][35].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an investment rating for the industry. 2. Core Views - **Rubber**: On Monday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2509 contract showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, oscillating weakly, and slightly closing lower. Although the macro - sentiment has improved recently, the supply of the rubber market is expected to increase, and the domestic and foreign natural rubber producing areas are about to enter a new tapping season. Meanwhile, domestic tire enterprises are approaching the May Day holiday, and the operating rate is under pressure to decline, so the rubber price lacks follow - up momentum for rebound [4]. - **Methanol**: On Monday, the domestic methanol futures 2509 contract showed a trend of increasing volume, increasing positions, oscillating strongly, and slightly rising. However, the supply - demand fundamentals of methanol are still weak, with a significant increase in weekly production and a high operating rate of coal - to - methanol. The upward space for methanol in the future may be limited, and attention should be paid to the resistance of the 20 - day moving average [4]. - **Crude Oil**: On Monday, the domestic crude oil futures 2506 contract showed a trend of increasing volume, increasing positions, oscillating strongly, and slightly rising. After the negative impact of Kazakhstan's production increase has been digested, the crude oil market has entered a stage of long - short divergence, and the upward movement of the futures price is blocked by the 20 - day moving average. It is expected that the domestic oil price will maintain an oscillating and consolidating trend in the future [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Rubber**: As of April 20, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 612,500 tons, a decrease of 7,000 tons or 1.08% from the previous period. As of the week of April 25, 2025, the operating load of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 65.79%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.65% and a year - on - year increase of 2.29 percentage points; the operating load of semi - steel tires was 72.36%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.84 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.64 percentage points. In March 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 3.006 million and 2.915 million respectively, with a month - on - month increase of 42.9% and 37% and a year - on - year increase of 11.9% and 8.2%. In the first quarter of 2025, China's cumulative automobile production and sales were 7.561 million and 7.47 million respectively, with a year - on - year increase of 14.5% and 11.2%. In March 2025, China's heavy - truck sales were about 105,000, a month - on - month increase of 29% and a year - on - year decrease of about 9%. From January to March 2025, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market were about 259,000, a year - on - year decrease of 5% [8][9]. - **Methanol**: As of the week of April 25, 2025, the average operating rate of domestic methanol was 80.39%, a week - on - week increase of 0.17%, a month - on - month increase of 4.72%, and a year - on - year increase of 6.14%. The average weekly production of methanol was 189,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5,160 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 920 tons, and a significant increase of 21,010 tons compared with the same period last year. The operating rates of formaldehyde, acetic acid, and coal (methanol) - to - olefin plants increased slightly week - on - week, while the operating rates of dimethyl ether and MTBE decreased. The futures disk profit of methanol - to - olefin decreased slightly week - on - week but rebounded significantly month - on - month. As of the week of April 18, 2025, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China was 450,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 34,700 tons. As of the week of April 24, 2025, the inland methanol inventory was 309,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 260 tons [10][11][13]. - **Crude Oil**: As of the week of April 11, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States was 481, a week - on - week increase of 1 and a decrease of 30 compared with the same period last year. The average daily crude oil production in the United States was 13.46 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 200,000 barrels per day and an increase of 360,000 barrels per day compared with the same period last year. As of the week of April 18, 2025, the commercial crude oil inventory in the United States (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 443.104 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 244,000 barrels. The refinery operating rate in the United States was 88.1%, a week - on - week increase of 1.8 percentage points. Since April 2025, international crude oil futures prices have shown a weak downward trend. As of April 22, 2025, the net long positions in both WTI and Brent crude oil futures markets decreased significantly week - on - week [13][14]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,550 yuan/ton | +150 yuan/ton | 14,730 yuan/ton | -220 yuan/ton | -180 yuan/ton | +220 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,485 yuan/ton | +20 yuan/ton | 2,310 yuan/ton | +22 yuan/ton | +175 yuan/ton | -2 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 455.8 yuan/barrel | -0.1 yuan/barrel | 498.0 yuan/barrel | +0.4 yuan/barrel | -42.2 yuan/barrel | -0.6 yuan/barrel | [15] 3.3 Related Charts The report lists various charts for rubber, methanol, and crude oil, including basis, month - to - month spreads, inventory, and net position changes, with data sources from Wind and Baocheng Futures Research Institute [16][28][40]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In April 2025, domestic thermal coal prices declined slightly. As of April 22, the quotation for 5500K at Qinhuangdao Port was 662 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan month - on - month and 157 yuan lower than the same period last year [1][8][69]. - The supply side of thermal coal faces strong pressure. In March 2025, the national raw coal output was 440 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.6%, setting a new record for the highest monthly output. The total supply was 479 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.8%. After entering April, the coal output in the main producing areas still increased slightly, and the import volume was expected to be close to that in March [1][17][69]. - The demand side is weak. April and May are the traditional off - seasons for thermal coal. As of April 17, the daily consumption of thermal coal in 8 coastal provinces and 17 inland provinces decreased week - on - week. The non - power industry coal demand is also suppressed by Sino - US trade frictions [2][20][70]. - In the intermediate link, the coal inventory in the Bohai Rim ports and terminal power plants is at a high level. As of April 22, the total inventory of 9 ports in the Bohai Rim reached 3.1332 million tons, accumulating 664,000 tons in April, and was 792,300 tons higher than the same period last year [2][31][70]. - Overall, the bearish factors for thermal coal are piling up, and the supply - demand pattern remains loose. The relatively positive factor is that the inventory replenishment market in the industry chain for peak summer may drive the coal price to stop falling and stabilize, but the expected rebound space is limited, and the overall coal price trend is still downward [3][9][72] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents Chapter 1: Market Review 1.1 Price Review - Domestic thermal coal prices declined slightly in April 2025. The bearish factors are still accumulating, including increased domestic production, Sino - US trade frictions, the growth of clean energy, and high inventory levels restricting the rebound of coal prices during the replenishment period [8]. - Internationally, the global coal supply is also in surplus, and international coal prices are running weakly. In April, most terminals were waiting and watching, and the price of Indonesian coal in South China ports was relatively high compared to domestic coal [9]. 1.2 Futures - Spot Price Difference As of April 22, the price of the main thermal coal futures contract was 139.4 yuan/ton higher than the spot price of 5500 - kcal thermal coal produced in Shanxi at Qinhuangdao Port [14] Chapter 2: Analysis of Factors Affecting Prices 2.1 Supply Side 2.1.1 Origin Situation - In March 2025, the national raw coal output was 441 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.6%. From January to March, the cumulative output was 1.203 billion tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 8.1%. The production increase in March was mainly concentrated in Shanxi and Xinjiang, with year - on - year increases of 19.1% and 20.6% respectively [17][18]. - In Shanxi, coal mines maintained a high operating level after the Two Sessions. In March, the output was 11.3831 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 19.6%. In Inner Mongolia, the new safety standard policy restricted the production capacity of some small and medium - sized coal mines. In Shaanxi and Xinjiang, coal production also increased [18][19]. 2.1.2 Import Volume - In March 2025, China imported 38.73 million tons of coal and lignite, a year - on - year decrease of 6.4%. From January to March, the cumulative import was 114.85 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.9%. In April, the coal import volume was expected to increase slightly compared to March but still decrease significantly year - on - year [24]. 2.2 Intermediate - Link Shipment 2.2.1 Datong - Qinhuangdao Railway In March 2025, the Datong - Qinhuangdao Railway transported 35.27 million tons of coal, a year - on - year decrease of 2.08%. During the spring maintenance in April, the daily transportation limit was reduced to 1 million tons, but the port coal inventory still increased [27][28]. 2.2.2 Bohai Rim Ports - In March 2025, the total railway coal inflow of seven major ports in the Bohai Rim was 52.25 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.19%. The total outflow was 51.037 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.71%. In April, the inflow was still higher than the outflow, and the inventory increased [30][31]. 2.2.3 Shipping Situation - In April, the international dry bulk shipping market weakened seasonally. The BDI index decreased month - on - month and year - on - year, mainly dragged down by the Capesize ship (BCI) index. The domestic shipping market was relatively active, and the freight rate remained high - level volatile [37][38][41] 2.3 Demand Side 2.3.1 Total Social Electricity Consumption - In March 2025, the total social electricity consumption was 828.2 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 4.8%. From January to March, the cumulative consumption was 2384.6 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. The growth rate of electricity consumption slowed down due to the warm winter and non - power industries [45][47][48]. 2.3.2 Power Generation Structure - In March 2025, the national industrial power generation above designated size was 778 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 1.8%. From January to March, the cumulative power generation was 2269.9 billion kWh, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3%. The proportion of thermal power decreased, while the proportion of clean energy increased [52][53]. 2.3.3 Non - Power Industry Coal Demand - From January to March, the real estate industry was still in adjustment, and infrastructure project reviews were strict. The non - power industry's support for coal demand was insufficient. The Sino - US trade friction had an indirect impact on non - power terminal exports, and non - power industry coal demand was expected to be weak [62][63] Chapter 3: Conclusion - The supply of thermal coal remains high, the demand is weak, and the inventory is at a high level. The bearish factors are piling up, and the supply - demand pattern is loose. The coal price may stop falling and stabilize during the peak - summer replenishment period, but the rebound space is limited, and the overall trend is downward [69][70][72]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core View of the Report - Today, Treasury bond futures continued their volatile consolidation trend, with most closing higher. The 30 - year main contract rose 0.30%, the 10 - year main contract rose 0.03%, the 5 - year main contract fell 0.06%, and the 2 - year main contract rose 0.01%. [1] - After the Politburo meeting last Friday, which emphasized more proactive macro - policies and timely interest rate and reserve requirement ratio cuts, the market has priced in the expectation of an interest rate cut in Q2. However, considering good domestic macro data and the Fed's non - start of the reserve requirement ratio cut cycle, the central bank will remain cautious in the short term. Thus, Treasury bond futures are in a high - level consolidation trend. [1] - Overall, economic indicators show resilience, and macro - policies have not fully exerted their effects. It is expected that Treasury bond futures will mainly fluctuate and consolidate in the short term. [1] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalog Industry News and Related Charts - On April 28, 2025, the People's Bank of China conducted 279 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations at a fixed - rate and quantity - tendered method, with a winning bid rate of 1.5%. There were 176 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing in the open market today, resulting in a net injection of 103 billion yuan. [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Coke: This week, coke continued the pattern of increasing supply and demand, with a more obvious increase on the demand side. The short - term fundamentals of coke are acceptable, and the main futures contract maintained a low - level volatile operation. However, current macro - level disturbances are still intense. There were repeated Sino - US trade frictions in April, and there is strong uncertainty about the future of the tariff dispute. China's domestic demand boost policies are imminent. The Political Bureau meeting of the CPC Central Committee on April 25 proposed to implement more proactive macro - policies, make full use of a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy. Overall, the medium - and long - term logic of coke remains unchanged. The cost - side drag caused by the loose supply of coking coal and concerns about terminal demand compress the rebound space of coke futures. But short - term macro - level disturbances and marginal improvements in coke's own fundamentals provide some support for prices. It is expected that the main coke contract will maintain a low - level volatile operation in the near future, and attention should be paid to domestic policy developments [5][34]. - Coking coal: From March to April, there were no major production accidents in Shanxi, and the coal mine safety supervision environment in the region was relatively stable, with output remaining at a high level. In March, the raw coal output in Shanxi increased by 19.1% year - on - year, and since April, the coal output in Shanxi has continued to operate at a high level, and it is expected to record a positive year - on - year growth. Meanwhile, the import volume of Mongolian coal in April improved significantly compared with March. At present, although the price of coking coal has been falling continuously, the situation of loose supply has not been reversed, and the overall fundamentals are still bearish. In the spot market, the latest quotation of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port is 1,035 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week, and the cost of the equivalent futures warehouse receipt is about 1,008 yuan/ton. Overall, the fundamental pressure on coking coal still exists, but recent macro - level disturbances are intense, and the market's long - short game has intensified. The main coking coal contract temporarily maintains a low - level volatile operation. Attention should be paid to whether there will be domestic demand boost policies in the future [6][35]. Summary by Related Catalogs Industry News - The National Energy Administration reported that in the first quarter, the national energy supply was sufficient, and the overall supply - demand situation was loose. Energy production increased steadily, and the growth rate of coal, oil, gas, and electricity production accelerated in March. In the first quarter, the raw coal output of industrial enterprises above designated size was 1.2 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.1%; in March, the raw coal output of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 9.6% year - on - year, with a daily output of more than 14 million tons. The crude oil output of industrial enterprises above designated size in the first quarter was 54.09 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1%, and in March, it increased by 3.5% year - on - year. The natural gas output of industrial enterprises above designated size in the first quarter was 66 billion cubic meters, a year - on - year increase of 4.3%, and in March, it increased by 5.0% year - on - year. The cumulative installed power generation capacity nationwide in the first quarter reached 3.43 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 14.6%. In March, the growth rate of power generation of industrial enterprises above designated size was 3.1 percentage points higher than that from January to February [8]. - On April 28, the price of coking coal in the Linfen Anze market remained stable. The ex - factory price of low - sulfur main coking clean coal (A9, S0.5, V20, G85) was 1,300 yuan/ton, including tax in cash [9]. Spot Market | Variety | Current Value | Weekly Change | Monthly Change | Annual Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke (Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade flat - price) | 1,440 | 0.00% | 3.60% | - 14.79% | - 25.77% | | Coke (Qingdao Port quasi - first - grade ex - warehouse) | 1,350 | 0.75% | - 0.74% | - 16.67% | - 33.50% | | Coking coal (Mongolian coal at Ganqimaodu Port) | 1,035 | 0.00% | - 4.17% | - 12.29% | - 35.31% | | Coking coal (Australian - produced at Jingtang Port) | 1,300 | - 0.76% | - 5.11% | - 12.75% | - 41.96% | | Coking coal (Shanxi - produced at Jingtang Port) | 1,400 | 0.00% | 0.00% | - 8.50% | - 34.88% | [10] Futures Market | Futures | Active Contract | Closing Price | Change Rate | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Trading Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Open Interest Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke | | 1,562.0 | - 1.20 | 1,587.0 | 1,553.5 | 23,887 | - 2,703 | 36,957 | 145 | | Coking coal | | 947.0 | - 1.66 | 968.0 | 943.5 | 387,146 | - 63,343 | 339,613 | 2,996 | [13] Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts related to coke and coking coal inventories, including 230 independent coking plants' coke inventory, 247 steel mills' coking plants' coke inventory, port coke total inventory, coke total inventory, mine - mouth coking coal inventory, port coking coal inventory, 247 sample steel mills' coking coal inventory, and other relevant production and consumption - related charts such as Shanghai terminal wire rod procurement volume, domestic steel mill production situation, coal washing plant production situation, and coking plant operation situation [14][21][28] Market Outlook - Coke: This week, coke continued the pattern of increasing supply and demand, with a more obvious increase on the demand side. The short - term fundamentals are acceptable, and the main futures contract maintains a low - level volatile operation. Due to intense macro - level disturbances and the unchanged medium - and long - term logic, it is expected to maintain a low - level volatile operation in the near future, and attention should be paid to domestic policy developments [34] - Coking coal: From March to April, the coal output in Shanxi remained high, and the import volume of Mongolian coal improved in April. The supply is still loose, and the fundamentals are bearish. The main contract temporarily maintains a low - level volatile operation, and attention should be paid to whether there will be domestic demand boost policies [35]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 专业研究·创造价值 火电同比下滑，CEA 弱势运行 核心观点 根据上海环境能源交易所数据，截至到 2025 年 4 月 25 日，全国 碳市场碳排放配额(CEA)收盘价为 75.76 元/吨，较上月同期下跌 13.12%，较去年同期下跌 26.02%。近 30 个交易日内，全国碳排放配 额的平均成交量为 23.2 万吨，上期平均成交量为 11.9 万吨，可见 近期碳排放现货市场较为活跃，成交量均值月环比增加 11.3 万吨。 能源价格来看，截至 2025 年 4 月 27 日，秦皇岛港 5500K 报价 656 元/吨，较上月底偏低 11 元/吨，较去年底偏低 107 元/吨。动力 煤偏空因素堆积，年内价格重心持续下行，市场氛围较为悲观。 2024 年 1~12 月，全国天然气表观消费量累计 4234.65 亿立方 米，同比去年偏多 334.30 亿立方米；全国燃料油表观消费量累计 5199.42 万吨，同比去年偏少 1102.83 万吨；全国焦炭表观消费量累 计 48108.04 万吨，同比去年偏少 296.69 万吨。 电力方面，2025 年 3 月，全 ...

运筹帷幄决胜千里 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 铁矿石到货、发运周度数据（2025 年第 17 周） 一、简评 1、国内 47 港到货量为 2679.60 万吨，环比增 230.40 万吨，再度回升，增量主要是澳矿，环比增 272.50 万吨，巴西矿则是环比增 14.50 万吨，非澳巴矿环比降 56.30 万吨。 网址：www.bcqhgs.com 1 地址：杭州市求是路8号公元大厦东南裙楼1-5层 运筹帷幄决胜千里 2、全球 19 港发运量 2、海外矿石发运大幅回升，全球 19 港矿石发运总量为 3188.20 万吨，环比增 262.70 万吨，重回年内 高位；增量主要源于主流矿商，四大矿商发运均有所增加，合计增 266.09 万吨，非澳巴地区发运降 57.90 万吨，延续回落并降至年内低位。 3、按船期推算国内港口澳巴矿到货量稳中有升，海外矿石供应重回高位。 二、矿石到货与发运数据 | | | | | | 铁矿石周度到货和发运数据 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - In April, the prices of manganese-silicon futures and spot both declined weakly due to limited supply contraction, unalleviated industrial contradictions, and the downward pressure on manganese ore prices [3][7]. - The inventory structure of manganese-silicon has changed. Steel mills' inventory remains low, while producers' inventory has increased, and the exchange warehouse receipts have reached a high level, intensifying inventory pressure and indicating that the supply-demand contradiction has not been alleviated, which continuously suppresses price trends [3][28]. - Overseas tariff disturbances continue, but their impact on manganese-silicon trends will weaken, and the dominant logic will gradually shift to the industrial side. However, steel prices performed poorly during the peak season, and demand will shift to the off-season, which may affect the demand for related raw materials and lead to a weakening of manganese-silicon demand. Meanwhile, the expected supply contraction of manganese ore has not materialized, and its demand has weakened recently. Under the situation of strong supply and weak demand, manganese ore prices will remain under pressure, further dragging down manganese-silicon prices [3][8]. - In the future, the pressure of the industrial contradiction in manganese-silicon remains high. Whether it can be improved depends on the expansion of supply contraction, i.e., increasing the production cut. However, new production capacities are still being put into operation in the main production areas, so the supply benefits are expected to be limited. Overall, the supply-demand contradiction of manganese-silicon is difficult to resolve, and with the downward pressure on costs, manganese-silicon prices will continue to decline weakly. Attention should be paid to the production situation of manganese-silicon enterprises [3][8] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Manganese-silicon Weakly Declined in April - In April, due to limited supply contraction, unalleviated industrial contradictions, and the downward pressure on manganese ore prices, the prices of manganese-silicon futures and spot both declined weakly. As of April 25, the main manganese-silicon futures price closed at 5,796 yuan/ton, a 5.66% decline from the end of last month. The spot prices in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Tianjin also decreased significantly. The tender prices of mainstream steel mills also declined, with Hegang's April tender price at 5,950 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 450 yuan [7]. - Looking ahead, overseas tariff disturbances will continue to impact manganese-silicon trends, but their impact will weaken. The dominant logic will gradually shift to the industrial side. However, steel prices performed poorly during the peak season, and demand will shift to the off-season, which may affect the demand for related raw materials and lead to a weakening of manganese-silicon demand. Meanwhile, the expected supply contraction of manganese ore has not materialized, and its demand has weakened recently. Under the situation of strong supply and weak demand, manganese ore prices will remain under pressure, further dragging down manganese-silicon prices [8] 2. Manganese-silicon Inventory Increased and the Structure was Significantly Differentiated - Speculative demand weakened, and manganese-silicon producers' inventory continued to accumulate. As of the week of April 25, the total in-plant inventory of manganese-silicon was 181,800 tons, an increase of 33,200 tons from the end of last month, continuing the accumulation trend since March. Most regions saw inventory accumulation, with the largest increase in Ningxia. Inner Mongolia saw a slight inventory reduction, and the southern region also saw inventory accumulation [16]. - Steel mills' manganese-silicon inventory decreased at a low level. The available days of manganese-silicon inventory for steel mills in April were 15.44 days, a month-on-month decrease of 1.17 days. The available days of inventory in most regions decreased significantly, and most regions' inventory was lower than the same period last year. Steel mills will continue to maintain a low-inventory production strategy, and the low-inventory pattern will continue [22]. - The inventory of manganese-silicon producers and steel mills is at a low level, but the positive effect is not strong because most of the inventory is in the social inventory, especially in the futures-spot trading. The warehouse receipts of manganese-silicon on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange have been at a high level, which will suppress the price of near-term contracts in the long term and intensify industrial contradictions if the warehouse receipts flow into the spot market [25] 3. Manganese-silicon Enterprises Reduced Production and Supply Contracted - Similar to previous years, the production of manganese-silicon increased seasonally in March. In March 2025, the production of manganese-silicon was 899,100 tons, a month-on-month increase of 95,200 tons, or 11.85%. The cumulative production from January to March was 2.59 million tons, a year-on-year slight decrease of 1.09%. The production in each production area increased in March, especially in the main production areas [29]. - Since late March, manganese-silicon producers have started to reduce production, and supply has contracted. As of the week of April 25, the operating rate of 187 independent manganese-silicon enterprises was 41.59%, and the daily average production was 28,580 tons, a decrease of 6.63% and 1,910 tons respectively from the end of last month. The production in the main production areas decreased significantly, and the southern region also reduced production due to increased losses [34]. - The supply contraction of manganese-silicon is mainly due to the continuous losses of enterprises. As of April 24, the production costs of manganese-silicon in the southern and northern regions were 6,253 yuan/ton and 5,813 yuan/ton respectively, a month-on-month decrease of 477 yuan and 282 yuan respectively. However, the industry still showed a large-scale loss. Manganese ore prices have continued to weaken, and the cost decline has also dragged down manganese-silicon prices. The supply and demand pattern of manganese ore is expected to weaken, and the coke price is also difficult to get rid of the shock bottom-finding situation, which may drive the cost of manganese-silicon down [38][40] 4. Manganese-silicon Demand Improved, but Concerns Remained - During the peak season, steel mills actively produced, which improved the demand for raw materials, and the demand for manganese-silicon also increased. As of the week of April 25, the daily average pig iron output of 247 sample steel mills reached a new high this year, and the weekly demand for manganese-silicon also increased. However, the improvement in demand did not alleviate the industrial contradiction, as the inventory of manganese-silicon continued to accumulate at a high level due to limited supply contraction [51]. - Whether the demand for manganese-silicon can be maintained needs to be monitored. On the one hand, steel prices were weak during the peak season, and the profitability of steel mills has changed. Although the profit ratio of 247 steel mills remained at a relatively high level, the profit of mainstream steel products continued to shrink. On the other hand, there are concerns about steel demand under the tariff risk, and the incremental space for raw material demand is limited. The real estate market is still in the process of repair, and the demand for construction steel continues to be weak. Although the investment in domestic manufacturing is good, there are concerns under the overseas risk [52] 5. Outlook for the Future - The supply contraction of manganese-silicon is limited, the industrial contradiction is not alleviated, and the prices of manganese-silicon futures and spot will continue to decline weakly under the downward pressure on costs. The inventory pressure has increased, and the supply-demand contradiction has not been alleviated, which will continue to suppress price trends [3][61]. - Overseas tariff disturbances will continue to impact manganese-silicon trends, but their impact will weaken. The dominant logic will gradually shift to the industrial side. However, steel prices performed poorly during the peak season, and demand will shift to the off-season, which may affect the demand for related raw materials and lead to a weakening of manganese-silicon demand. Meanwhile, the expected supply contraction of manganese ore has not materialized, and its demand has weakened recently. Under the situation of strong supply and weak demand, manganese ore prices will remain under pressure, further dragging down manganese-silicon prices [3][8] - In the future, the pressure of the industrial contradiction in manganese-silicon remains high. Whether it can be improved depends on the expansion of supply contraction, i.e., increasing the production cut. However, new production capacities are still being put into operation in the main production areas, so the supply benefits are expected to be limited. Attention should be paid to the production situation of manganese-silicon enterprises [3][8]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2025 年 4 月 28 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 限产扰动不断，钢矿波动加剧 核心观点 螺纹钢：主力期价冲高回落，录得 0.61%日涨幅，量仓扩大。现阶段， 螺纹钢供需格局改善有限，周产量小幅回落，供应弱稳运行，而周度表 需环比下降，需求有所走弱，旺季需求表现不佳，基本面改善未能延 续，预计钢价继续承压偏弱震荡运行，关注钢厂生产情况。 热轧卷板：主力期价冲高回落，录得 0.84%日涨幅，量增仓缩。目前来 看，限产政策扰动不断，钢价冲高回落，相应的热卷供需两端变化不 大，产量延续回升，而需求平稳运行，供需格局并未好转，而海外风险 未退，预计热卷价格仍将承压运行，关注需求变化情况。 铁矿石：主力期价震荡运行，录得 0.49%日跌幅，量增仓稳。现阶 段，刚需高位叠加节前补库，矿石需求表现良好，给予矿价支撑，但并 未带来库存去化，多因供应维持高位，而需求存存触顶担忧，基本面预 期走弱，预计矿价维持低位震荡运行态势，关注成材表现情况。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F306 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: Copper prices first declined and then rebounded. The short - term price has recovered to the level of February, with weakened industrial support. The rebound of the US dollar index will suppress copper price increases, and the futures price faces significant pressure at the 78,000 yuan level. Before the May Day holiday, the market may be cautious, and there is a risk of pre - holiday price drops [5]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices fluctuated downward in the morning and stabilized in the afternoon, with a continuous decline in intraday positions. The industry is in a situation of strong supply and demand. High profits keep the production capacity and operating rate of electrolytic aluminum plants at a high level, and strong downstream production supports the price. The futures price may face strong hedging pressure when it rises to the 20,000 yuan level. Before the May Day holiday, the market may be cautious, and there is a risk of pre - holiday price drops [6]. - **Nickel**: The main futures price dropped below 124,000 yuan in the morning and then stabilized. Overseas nickel ore supply is tight, and domestic port nickel ore inventories are at a low level compared to the same period in previous years. However, the slow destocking of downstream stainless steel and weak prices drag down the futures price. There is a divergence in domestic and overseas inventories, with domestic inventories decreasing and overseas inventories increasing. The short - term fundamentals are mixed, and the futures price has broken below the 125,000 yuan level, showing a downward trend [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: On April 28, the social inventory of electrolytic copper was 161,000 tons, a decrease of 21,200 tons compared to April 24 and 47,500 tons compared to April 21 [9]. - **Aluminum**: On April 28, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 649,000 tons, a decrease of 15,000 tons compared to April 24 and 27,000 tons compared to April 21 [10]. - **Nickel**: On April 28, for the Shanghai market's main reference contract of refined nickel (Ni 2505), the mainstream premium of Jinchuan electrolytic nickel was + 2350 yuan/ton with a price of 126,000 yuan/ton; Russian nickel was + 250 yuan/ton with a price of 123,900 yuan/ton; Norwegian nickel was + 2750 yuan/ton with a price of 126,400 yuan/ton; and nickel beans were - 900 yuan/ton with a price of 122,750 yuan/ton [11]. 3.2 Related Charts - **Copper**: Multiple charts are provided, including copper basis, copper monthly spread, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper, overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [12][17][20]. - **Aluminum**: Charts include aluminum basis, electrolytic aluminum domestic social inventory, alumina trend, electrolytic aluminum overseas exchange inventory, and alumina inventory [24][26][28]. - **Nickel**: Charts include nickel basis, nickel monthly spread, LME nickel trend, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [35][41][45].