1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic crude oil futures contract 2506 is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend on Wednesday, due to the combined effects of increasing supply and weakening demand[5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Time - Cycle Analysis - Short - term (within a week): The trend of crude oil 2506 is volatile[1]. - Medium - term (two weeks to one month): The trend of crude oil 2506 is volatile and weak[1]. - Intraday: The trend of crude oil 2506 is volatile and weak[1][5]. 3.2 Price and Market Performance - The domestic crude oil futures 2506 contract closed significantly lower by 2.07% to 478.0 yuan/barrel on Tuesday night[5]. 3.3 Driving Logic - Supply: After OPEC+ oil - producing countries increased the daily crude oil supply by 411,000 barrels in May 2025, they may further increase production in June, and Kazakhstan may not strictly abide by the compensatory production - cut plan, increasing supply pressure[5]. - Demand: In May, North American crude oil demand is in the off - season, refinery operating rates are at a low level, consumer demand is insufficient, and inventory accumulation pressure is prominent[5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term and medium - term views of both coking coal and coke futures are "oscillation", while the intraday views are "oscillation and weakening". The overall view is to adopt an oscillatory trading strategy. For coking coal, due to the loose supply situation and limited short - term macro - upward driving force, the futures price is under pressure. For coke, although the short - term demand is acceptable, there is an increasing expectation of a phased peak in demand, and the drag from the coking coal cost side also affects the price [1][5][6]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - For coking coal 2509, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are "oscillation", "oscillation", and "oscillation and weakening" respectively, with an oscillatory trading idea. The core logic is that the fundamentals are dragging down, and coking coal continues to bottom out [1]. - For coke 2509, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are "oscillation", "oscillation", and "oscillation and weakening" respectively, with an oscillatory trading idea. The core logic is that there is an expectation of a peak in demand, and coke is operating weakly [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Commodity Futures Black Sector 3.2.1 Coking Coal (JM) - **Price Performance**: On the night of April 29, the main coking coal contract continued to decline, breaking through the previous low, with a 1.71% decline during the night session, and the price closed at 920.0 yuan/ton. The latest quotation of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port is 1035.0 yuan/ton, with a flat week - on - week comparison, and the cost of the equivalent futures warehouse receipt is about 1008 yuan/ton [5]. - **Supply Situation**: From March to April, the safety supervision environment of coal mines in Shanxi was relatively stable, and the production maintained a high level. In March, the raw coal production in Shanxi increased by 19.1% year - on - year, and in April, the coal production in Shanxi continued to operate at a high level, expected to still record a year - on - year positive growth. In addition, the import volume of Mongolian coal in April improved significantly compared with March [5]. - **Market Outlook**: The continuous growth of coking coal production and the high - level operation of imports put pressure on prices. Coupled with limited short - term macro - upward driving force, coking coal futures will continue to operate weakly [5]. 3.2.2 Coke (J) - **Price Performance**: On the night of April 29, the main coke contract continued to decline, approaching the previous low, with a 0.68% decline during the night session, and the price closed at 1542.5 yuan/ton. The latest quotation of the quasi - first - grade flat - price at Rizhao Port is 1440 yuan/ton, with a flat week - on - week comparison, and the cost of the equivalent futures warehouse receipt is about 1583 yuan/ton [6]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: This week, coke continued the pattern of increasing both supply and demand, and the increase in the demand side was relatively obvious. The short - term fundamentals of coke are acceptable, and the main futures contract maintains a low - level oscillatory operation [6]. - **Influencing Factors**: There are still strong macro - disturbances. On the one hand, the Sino - US trade friction has been repeated in April, and there is still strong uncertainty about the future development of the tariff dispute. On the other hand, China's domestic demand boosting policies are expected to be introduced soon. The Political Bureau Meeting of the CPC Central Committee on April 25 proposed to implement more proactive and effective macro - policies [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Although the short - term demand for coke is acceptable, as the "Golden March and Silver April" is coming to an end and steel mill profits are shrinking, the expectation of a phased peak in coke demand is increasing. Coupled with the drag from the coking coal cost side, coke futures will oscillate weakly. Attention should be paid to the introduction of domestic domestic demand boosting policies [6].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货橡胶早报-2025-04-30 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 偏空情绪占优，沪胶震荡偏弱 | | 合成胶 | 2506 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 偏空情绪占优，合成胶震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶（RU） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡偏弱 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：随着美国"对等关税"政策的负面影响逐渐消化，上周 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report suggests that the price of thermal coal is expected to remain weakly volatile in the short term. Although there is a possibility of the price stabilizing due to the inventory replenishment during the peak summer season, the current supply-demand pattern remains loose with accumulating bearish factors [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Commodity Futures Black Sector - **Reference View**: The intraday and medium - term view for thermal coal spot is "oscillation" [4]. - **Core Logic**: In April, the decline of domestic coal prices slowed down, but the market sentiment remained bearish. The supply - side pressure persisted as domestic coal production increased despite a year - on - year decline in coal imports. The intensification of Sino - US trade frictions from late March to April raised concerns about non - power terminal exports of thermal coal. The rapid growth of new wind and photovoltaic units and the seasonal strengthening of four types of clean energy in May and June will keep the demand for thermal coal at a low level in May. The current high inventory at northern ports and sufficient coal availability days for power plants will limit the price rebound during the inventory replenishment period [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term and medium - term views of IH2506 are both "oscillation", and the intraday view is "oscillation with a slight upward bias", with an overall view of "range oscillation" due to the coexistence of positive policy expectations and external uncertainties [1]. - For IF, IH, IC, and IM, the intraday view is "oscillation with a slight upward bias", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the overall view is "range oscillation". The stock index is in an oscillatory consolidation phase before the holiday because of the coexistence of multiple long and short factors [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2506, the short - term is "oscillation", the medium - term is "oscillation", the intraday is "oscillation with a slight upward bias", and the view is "range oscillation". The core logic is the coexistence of positive policy expectations and external uncertainties [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Yesterday, each stock index continued its narrow - range oscillatory consolidation. The stock market trading volume was 1.0417 trillion yuan, a decrease of 35 billion yuan from the previous day [5]. - The Politburo meeting in April sent a signal of stabilizing expectations and confidence to the market, but there is no signal of concentrated policy intensification yet. Policy expectations will rise if economic data weakens [5]. - As the impact of the external tariff war weakens marginally and domestic policies are still in the observation period, the driving force of the stock index has weakened, leading to an oscillatory consolidation [5]. - The stock market trading volume has been stable at around 1 trillion yuan recently, indicating that investors' wait - and - see sentiment has increased and their willingness to chase the rise is not strong [5]. - The stock index has rebounded to the gap position in early April and faces technical selling pressure if it continues to rise. Also, investors are cautious due to the uncertainties during the May Day holiday [5].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 4 月 30 日） 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2508 | 下跌 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 短线看弱 | 美国关税政策预期放松，期价累 | | | | | | 偏弱 | | 计涨幅较大，多头了结意愿强 | | 镍 | 2506 | 下跌 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 观望 | 上游镍矿强势，下游不锈钢弱势 | | | | | | 偏弱 | | | 核心逻辑：昨日金价再度冲高回落，夜盘在 780 上方震荡运行。4 月下旬金价积累较大涨幅的情况下 美国关税政策预期放缓导致多头了结意愿上升， ...

◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 策略参考 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 4 月 30 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为偏弱，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为偏强。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏强 核心逻辑：随着华北、东北地区豆粕现货价格持续下跌，豆粕期货价格受到拖累跟随呈现持续下跌走势。 北方地区贸易商杀价出货，连带沿海豆粕现货价格整体大幅度走低。市场聚焦 5 月份进口大豆到港、油厂 开机计划以及下游假期前后的库存采购节奏，短期市场波动进一步加剧。随着现货价格整体走弱，高基差 整体延续回落。节前最后一个交易日，随着现货市场跌势放缓，豆类期价或将止跌回稳。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前一日夜盘 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The short - term view for TL2506 is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the intraday view is "oscillating weakly", with an overall view of "range oscillation" due to the weakened short - term expectation of interest rate cuts [1]. - For the TL, T, TF, and TS varieties, the intraday view is "oscillating weakly", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "range oscillation". Although currently in a high - level consolidation, future macro - policies will be concentrated, giving treasury bond futures upward momentum. In the short term, they will mainly oscillate and consolidate [4]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2506 variety, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are "oscillation", "oscillation", and "oscillating weakly" respectively, with a "range oscillation" view. The core logic is the weakened short - term expectation of interest rate cuts [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Yesterday, treasury bond futures rebounded comprehensively, with the 30 - year treasury bond futures rising 0.69%. The issuance of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds benefits the 30 - year treasury bond futures. Currently, domestic macro data is good, and the overseas Fed's reserve - reduction cycle has not arrived, so the central bank will remain stable in the short term. After the April Politburo meeting, the time for monetary policy interest rate and reserve - ratio cuts is approaching, and treasury bond futures have upward momentum in the future while mainly oscillating in the short term [4].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report - The iron ore price is expected to continue its low - level oscillating trend. The report suggests paying attention to the performance of steel products and the pressure at the MA5 line [2][3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety View Reference - For the iron ore 2509 contract, the short - term view is oscillating, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the intraday view is weakly oscillating. The reference view is to focus on the pressure at the MA5 line, with the core logic being that the fundamentals are weakly stable and the ore price is oscillating at a low level [2]. Market Driving Logic - Steel mills are actively producing, and the demand for ore is good, which supports the ore price. However, the high demand has not led to inventory depletion because the supply has returned to a high level. There are concerns that the post - holiday demand may reach its peak, the fundamental outlook is weakening, and risk appetite is weakening before the holiday. Therefore, the ore price is expected to continue its low - level oscillating trend [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run weakly, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday views being oscillatory and weakly oscillatory [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Price and Performance**: On the night of Monday this week, the 2509 contract of domestic Shanghai rubber futures slightly closed down 0.10% to 14,735 yuan/ton [5]. - **Core Logic**: After digesting the negative impact of the US "reciprocal tariff" policy, the domestic rubber futures returned to a long - short divergence oscillatory market dominated by supply - demand fundamentals. With the new rubber - tapping season in domestic and foreign natural rubber producing areas and the approaching May Day holiday, the operating rate of domestic tire enterprises declined, raw material procurement demand slowed down, and supply - demand expectations weakened [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Price and Performance**: On the night of Monday this week, the 2506 contract of synthetic rubber futures slightly closed down 1.55% to 11,400 yuan/ton [7]. - **Core Logic**: Although the macro - sentiment has eased and the domestic auto market's March production and sales data were optimistic, downstream tire enterprises are facing a decline in operating rate due to the approaching May Day holiday, demand expectations have weakened, and the inventory - reduction speed of domestic synthetic rubber is slow, with supply pressure still existing. Affected by the oscillatory decline of domestic crude oil futures prices, it is expected to maintain a weakly oscillatory trend [7].