豆类 | 日报 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 豆类 豆类油脂 姓名：毕慧 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F0268536 投资咨询证号：Z0011311 电话：0411-84807266 邮箱：bihui@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协 会授予的期货从业资格证 书，期货投资咨询资格证书， 本人承诺以勤勉的职业态 度，独立、客观地出具本报 告。本报告清晰准确地反映 了本人的研究观点。本人不 会因本报告中的具体推荐意 见或观点而直接或间接接收 到任何形式的报酬。 2025 年 7 月 8 日 豆类油脂 专业研究·创造价值 豆类震荡 棕榈油引领油脂反弹 核心观点 7 月 8 日，豆类震荡，油脂反弹。豆一期价止跌反弹，期价承压于 5 日均 线，资金变化不大；豆二期价止跌反弹，期价承压于 5 日均线压力，资金变 化不大；豆粕期价震荡偏弱，期价承压于 5 日均线，资金变化不大；菜粕期 价震荡偏弱，期价承压于 5 日和 10 日均线压力，资金变化不大。油脂期价震 荡偏强，豆油期价震荡偏强，期价暂获 5 日均线支撑，资金变化不大；棕榈 油期价涨幅超 2%，期价暂获 5 日和 1 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - On July 8, the coke主力合约 was reported at 1,424.5 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 0.14%. The market logic has shifted from fundamental to expectation-based. The policy may have limited direct impact on coke. It is recommended to adopt a shock approach and monitor coking coal production and policy dynamics [5][33]. - On July 8, the coking coal主力合约 closed at 843.5 points, up 0.84% intraday. The fundamental situation of coking coal has not improved significantly, and the recent futures increase is driven by news. It is expected that the coking coal主力合约 will remain volatile [6][34]. Summary by Directory Industry News - President Xi Jinping pointed out during an inspection in Shanxi that the coal industry should be upgraded from low - end to high - end, and coal products should be transformed from primary fuels to high - value products. Wind, solar, and hydrogen energy should be developed to build a new energy system [8]. - On July 8, in an auction of coking coal by a major coal enterprise in Qipanjing, Inner Mongolia, the starting price of high - ash, low - sulfur fat coal was 760 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction price was 790 yuan/ton, a 10 - yuan increase from the July 1 transaction price [9]. Spot Market | Variety | Current Price | Weekly Change | Monthly Change | Annual Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke (Rizhao Port Standard First - Class Flat - Bed)| 1,220 yuan/ton | 0.00% | 0.00% | - 27.81% | - 40.20% | | Coke (Qingdao Port Standard First - Class Outbound)| 1,210 yuan/ton | 3.42% | 4.31% | - 25.31% | - 39.20% | | Coking Coal (Ganqimaodu Port Mongolian Coal)| 940 yuan/ton | 1.08% | 8.67% | - 20.34% | - 40.51% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port Australian - Produced)| 1,220 yuan/ton | 0.83% | 0.83% | - 18.12% | - 41.63% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port Shanxi - Produced)| 1,280 yuan/ton | 2.40% | 2.40% | - 16.34% | - 38.16% | [10] Futures Market | Futures | Active Contract | Closing Price | Increase/Decrease | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Trading Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Position Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke | - | 1,424.5 | 0.14% | 1,437.0 | 1,410.0 | 16,389 | - 3,553 | 48,080 | - 18 | | Coking Coal | - | 843.5 | 0.84% | 849.5 | 829.0 | 723,095 | - 146,234 | 544,987 | - 4,404 | [13] Related Charts - The report provides charts on coke inventory (including 230 independent coking plants, 247 steel mill coking plants, port, and total coke inventory), coking coal inventory (including mine - mouth, port, 247 sample steel mills, and all - sample independent coking plants), and other charts such as Shanghai terminal wire rod procurement volume, domestic steel mill production, coal washing plant production, and coking plant operation [14][20][26] Market Outlook - For coke, the market is a mix of strong expectations and weak reality. The futures are in a low - level shock adjustment. It is recommended to approach it with a shock mindset and pay attention to coking coal production and policy [5][33]. - For coking coal, the fundamentals have not improved significantly, and the futures increase is news - driven. With the upcoming Politburo meeting in July, the market's long - short game will intensify, and the coking coal主力合约 is expected to remain volatile [6][34].

一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 20250416 | 2025/03 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 5.40 | 5.40 | 5.30 | | 20250630 | 2025/06 | 制造业 PMI | % | 49.70 | 49.50 | 49.50 | | 20250630 | 2025/06 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活 动 | % | 50.50 | 50.30 | 50.50 | | 20250613 | 2025/05 | 社会融资规模增量:当 | 亿元 | | 22870.00 11599.00 | 20623.00 | | | | 月值 | | | | | | 20250613 | 2025/05 | M0(流通中的现金):同 比 | % | 12.10 | 12.00 | 11.70 | | 20250613 | 2025/05 | M1(货币):同比 | % | 2.30 | 1.50 | -0.8 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided 2) Core View of the Report The report suggests that the domestic crude oil futures 2509 contract is expected to run strongly, with a short - term and medium - term outlook of oscillation and an intraday view of oscillation with a slight upward bias [1][5]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Price Trend and Views - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends of the crude oil 2509 contract are oscillation, oscillation, and oscillation with a slight upward bias respectively, with an overall view of running strongly [1]. - The domestic crude oil futures 2509 contract closed up 2.03% at 507 yuan/barrel on the overnight session of Monday, and the 2508 contract is expected to maintain an oscillation with a slight upward bias on Tuesday [5]. Core Logic - The geopolitical risk in the Middle East has re - emerged due to Israel's air strikes on Hezbollah in Lebanon, leading to a rebound in geopolitical premium and an increase in the confidence of oil market bulls after a previous significant decline [5]. - The demand factor of crude oil has come into play with the arrival of the peak oil - using season in the Northern Hemisphere [5]. - Market sentiment has been repaired as Trump extended the suspension period of reciprocal tariffs, and the bullish atmosphere has supported the sharp rebound of domestic and international crude oil futures prices [5].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 运筹帷幄 决胜千里 宝城期货品种套利数据日报（2025 年 7 月 8 日） 一、动力煤 | 商品 | | | 动力煤（元/吨） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 基差 | 5月-1月 | 9月-1月 | 9月-5月 | | 2025/07/07 | -177.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/07/04 | -178.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/07/03 | -180.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/07/02 | -180.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/07/01 | -180.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -250 -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 450 500 550 600 650 700 750 800 850 900 950 动力煤基差 基差（右） 动力煤现货价:秦皇岛 期货结算价(活跃合约) :动力煤 www.bcqhgs.com 1 杭州市求是 ...

品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 供需结构偏弱，沪胶震荡偏弱 | | 合成胶 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 供需结构偏弱，合成胶震荡偏弱 | 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 晨会纪要 宝城期货橡胶早报-2025-07-08 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶（RU） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：近日国内高层会议定调，最核心的两个：治理低价无序竞争和 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货股指期货早报（2025 年 7 月 8 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2509 | 震荡 | 上涨 | 震荡偏强 | 震荡偏强 | 政策端利好预期构成较强支撑 | 参考观点：震荡偏强 核心逻辑：昨日各股指均窄幅震荡整理。股市全市场成交额 12270 亿元，较上日缩量 2274 亿元。近 期股市成交量能有所下降，反应出市场追涨情绪有所减弱，股指上行动能放缓。从宏观政策稳定经济 增长的角度来看，目前国内通胀较弱，内需的内生性增长动能还有所不足，外需易受到关税因素的冲 击，下半年需要继续出台稳定经济需求以及市场预期的利好政策，这是本轮股指反弹的主要逻辑。后 市等待 7 月政治局会议的政策兑现。总的来说，短期内股指区间震荡为主。 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货国债期货早报（2025 年 7 月 8 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡偏弱 | 震荡 | 货币政策环境偏向宽松，但短期 降息可能性不高 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 专业研究·创造价值 1/2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 观点参考 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：昨日国债期货均窄幅震荡整理。随着近期央行持续在公开市场净回笼资金，市场流动性回 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For gold, in the short - term, it is expected to decline; in the medium - term, it will fluctuate; and the intraday view is weakly fluctuating, with a suggestion of waiting and seeing. For copper, in the short - term and medium - term, it is expected to rise; and the intraday view is strongly fluctuating, with a short - term bullish outlook [1] Group 3: Summary by Variety Gold - Short - term view: decline; medium - term view: fluctuation; intraday view: weakly fluctuating; reference view: wait and see. Core logic: US non - farm payrolls exceeded expectations, leading to a stronger dollar and putting pressure on gold prices. Meanwhile, the decline in market risk appetite since last Friday and the high - level adjustment of US stocks increased short - term safe - haven demand for gold, providing support for gold prices [1][3] Copper - Short - term and medium - term view: rise; intraday view: strongly fluctuating; reference view: short - term bullish. Core logic: Last week, the macro environment cooled, the US interest - rate cut expectation decreased, and tariff concerns increased, causing copper prices to fall. On Monday, copper prices continued to decline with reduced positions. On the industrial side, supply is expected to decrease due to smelter losses and policy expectations, and demand is strong but marginally declining. Technically, attention should be paid to the 20 - day moving average support [1][5]

策略参考 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 7 月 8 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为偏弱，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为偏强。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏弱 核心逻辑：美豆生长状况良好，叠加贸易忧虑情绪升温，美豆期价震荡偏弱运行。国内大豆市场供应充裕。 油厂高开工率背景下，豆粕产量持续快速增长，油厂豆粕库存连续 8 周低位回升。在国内油厂远期买船依 旧谨慎的背景下，下游市场对远期供应收紧的预期支撑了采购需求。油厂豆粕提货量持续高位，饲料企业 物理库存天数低位回升。短期豆粕期价震荡运行。 策略参考 品种：棕榈油(P) 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏弱 核心逻辑：受到国际油价下挫的拖累，油脂期价整体偏弱运行。同时随着 ...