投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货金融研究所 姓名：陈栋 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F0251793 投资咨询证号：Z0001617 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：chendong@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货 投资咨询资格证书，本人承诺 以勤勉的职业态度，独立、客 观地出具本报告。本报告清晰 准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或 间接接收到任何形式的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 11615 2026 年 1 月 9 日 橡胶甲醇原油 专业研究·创造价值 偏多因素提振 能化震荡偏强 核心观点 橡胶：本周五国内沪胶期货 2605 合约呈现缩量增仓，震荡偏弱， 小幅收低的走势，盘中期价重心小幅下移至 16030 元/吨一线运行。收 盘时期价小幅收低 0.96%至 16030 元/吨。5-9 月差贴水幅度升阔至 25 元/吨。目前国内胶市由供需基本面所主导，胶价摆脱三角形区间震荡， 维持震荡偏强格局。 甲醇：本周五国内甲醇期货 26 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2) Core View of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of rebar has weakened, with a significant increase in inventory. The weekly output of rebar increased by 2820 tons week - on - week, and the supply continued to rise with room for further growth. The demand continued to weaken seasonally, with the weekly apparent demand decreasing by 25480 tons week - on - week. Although high - frequency transactions rebounded due to holiday factors, both remained at low levels in recent years. The downstream industry was weak, and the weak demand pattern remained unchanged, continuing to put pressure on steel prices. The rebar price rebounded from a low level due to the warm sentiment in commodities, but with increasing supply and weak demand, fundamental contradictions began to accumulate. The steel price in the off - season continued to be under pressure, and the cost support was a relative positive factor. It is expected that the subsequent trend will continue to fluctuate at a low level, and the production situation of steel mills should be monitored [12]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - The weekly output of rebar was 191040 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2820 tons, and an increase of 2820 tons compared to the end of last month. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 86.04%, a week - on - week increase of 0.78 percentage points, and an increase of 0.78 percentage points compared to the end of last month. Compared with the same period (lunar calendar), the output decreased by 27690 tons, and the blast furnace capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.09 percentage points [3]. Demand - The weekly apparent demand for rebar was 174960 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 25480 tons, and a decrease of 25480 tons compared to the end of last month. The weekly average value of Steel Union building material transactions was 9810 tons, a week - on - week increase of 190 tons, and an increase of 190 tons compared to the end of last month. Compared with the same period (lunar calendar), the apparent demand decreased by 63720 tons, and the weekly average value of transactions decreased by 1040 tons [3]. Inventory - The total inventory of rebar was 438110 tons, a week - on - week increase of 16080 tons, and an increase of 16080 tons compared to the end of last month. The in - plant inventory was 147930 tons, a week - on - week increase of 8560 tons, and an increase of 8560 tons compared to the end of last month. The social inventory was 290180 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7520 tons, and an increase of 7520 tons compared to the end of last month. Compared with the same period (lunar calendar), the total inventory increased by 35090 tons, the in - plant inventory increased by 27650 tons, and the social inventory increased by 7440 tons [3]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The iron ore supply - demand pattern is weakly operating, with inventory continuously rising. Steel mills are resuming production, and the terminal consumption of ore is rising from a low level. However, the overall increase is not significant, and the improvement space of ore demand is limited due to the poor profit situation of steel mills and the inability of the off - season steel market to support a large - scale increase in production. Meanwhile, port arrivals are rising, and miner shipments are falling from a high level. The overall supply pressure remains. In conclusion, the iron ore fundamentals are still weak, and the ore price is under pressure. It is expected to maintain a high - level volatile operation under the game of long and short factors, and the restocking situation of steel mills should be monitored [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Contents Inventory - 45 - port iron ore inventory is 16,275.26, with a week - on - week increase of 304.37 and a year - on - year increase of 1,300.78 compared to the same period (lunar calendar). 247 steel mills' imported ore inventory is 8,989.59, with a week - on - week increase of 43.05 and a year - on - year decrease of 582.11 compared to the same period (lunar calendar) [1] Supply - Domestic 45 - port iron ore arrivals are 2,756.40, with a week - on - week increase of 155.00 and a year - on - year increase of 488.00 compared to the same period (lunar calendar). Global iron ore shipments are 3,213.70, with a week - on - week decrease of 463.42 and a year - on - year increase of 151.90 compared to the same period (lunar calendar) [1] Demand - The average daily hot metal output of 247 steel mills is 229.50, with a week - on - week increase of 2.07 and a year - on - year increase of 0.09 compared to the same period (lunar calendar). The 45 - port average daily ore removal volume is 323.27, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.94 and a year - on - year decrease of 0.98 compared to the same period (lunar calendar). The daily consumption of imported ore by 247 steel mills is 283.28, with a week - on - week increase of 2.61 and a year - on - year decrease of 2.30 compared to the same period (lunar calendar). The weekly average of iron ore transactions at major ports is 99.50, with a week - on - week increase of 18.82 and a year - on - year decrease of 12.22 compared to the same period (lunar calendar) [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of hot - rolled coils has changed little. The supply pressure has not been alleviated and continues to put pressure on steel prices. The demand has weakened, but the high - level cold - rolled production provides some support. The fundamentals have not improved under the situation of increasing supply and weak demand, and the upward driving force is not strong. It is expected that the price will maintain a volatile trend [2][3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Supply - The weekly output of hot - rolled coils is 305.51 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.00 tons. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 86.04%, a week - on - week increase of 0.78 percentage points. The weekly output of cold - rolled coils is 88.84 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.47 tons [2] Demand - The apparent demand for hot - rolled coils is 308.34 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.43 tons. The daily high - frequency trading volume is at a low level. Although the high - level cold - rolled production supports the demand, the industrial contradictions are accumulating, and the export performance is average, so there are concerns about demand [2][3] Inventory - The total inventory of hot - rolled coils is 368.13 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.83 tons. The in - plant inventory is 77.32 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.00 tons. The social inventory is 290.81 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.17 tons [2]

期货研究报告 宝城期货投资咨询部 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 国债期货 | 日报 2026 年 1 月 9 日 国债期货 专业研究·创造价值 通胀数据向好修复，国债期货震荡整理 核心观点 今日国债期货均震荡小幅回调。消息面，统计局公布了 12 月通胀数据， CPI 温和上涨，PPI 跌幅缩窄，表明在促消费和反内卷政策的持续推动下， 价格指数向好修复。考虑到 12 月制造业 PMI 数据也表现较强韧性，宏观经 济预期较为积极，短期内降息的可能性继续回落，国债期货价格承压。不过 随着国债现券价格回落，国债到期收益率隐含的降息预期消退，政策利率的 锚定效果显现，国债期货下行空间有限。中长期来看，内需有效需求不足的 问题仍需政策面保持偏宽松的货币信用环境，国债期货支撑力量仍存。总的 来说，预计短期内震荡整理为主。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 姓名：龙奥明 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明：本人具有中国期货 业协会授予的期货从业资格证 书，期货投资咨询资格证书， 本人 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - **沪铜**: Opened lower and then rebounded during the day, with increased positions and a recovery that almost offset the previous night's decline. Short - term, the game between long and short positions intensified, and the profit - taking intention of funds rose. The weak industrial reality also pressured the futures price. The macro atmosphere dominated the price trend, and with the warming of the atmosphere during the day, commodities generally rebounded. It is advisable to continuously monitor the support of the 10 - day moving average in the short term [6]. - **沪铝**: Significantly increased positions and rose, approaching the previous high. Since Wednesday, the macro atmosphere cooled and non - ferrous metals generally declined, but the aluminum price was relatively strong. This is because its macro attribute is relatively weaker than copper, and the expectation of aluminum replacing copper has been fermenting since December, with strong industrial expectations. However, the industrial side is still in a weak reality stage, and the electrolytic aluminum inventory has increased significantly. Technically, the aluminum price faces pressure at the 2021 high. It is necessary to continuously monitor the game between long and short positions [7]. - **沪镍**: Declined significantly with increased positions yesterday and rebounded after hitting the bottom today. Since the end of December, the nickel price has rebounded significantly, so the recent correction has also been relatively large. At present, the industry is still in a situation of over - supply, which puts pressure on the futures price, but news from Indonesia has reversed the industry's expectations. Technically, it is necessary to continuously monitor the game between long and short positions at the 140,000 mark [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: SMM predicts that the operating rate of the copper strip industry will continue to decline to 67.2% in January. In January, the copper price continued to hit new highs, and the terminal market's carrying capacity was on the verge of the limit. Some downstream enterprises even planned to start the Spring Festival holiday in advance, and the industry as a whole showed a "lying flat" state. The production and operation pressure of copper strip enterprises has increased significantly. The high - level operation of the copper price has continuously suppressed the release of new orders, and the order volume at the beginning of the month has dropped significantly. In addition, the adjustment of the recycled copper - related policy has led to double dilemmas of difficult raw material procurement and a significant increase in costs for tin - phosphorus bronze strip enterprises, and they have started to reduce production. Some enterprises plan to carry out year - end equipment overhauls, which also have an impact on the actual output in January. In December 2025, the overall operating rate of copper strip enterprises was 68.21%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.17 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.09 percentage points. Among them, the operating rate of large enterprises was 76.95%, that of medium - sized enterprises was 54.21%, and that of small enterprises was 59.02% [10]. - **Aluminum**: On January 8th, Mysteel's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 718,000 tons, with a cumulative inventory increase of 80,000 tons before the New Year's Day [11]. 3.2 Relevant Charts - **Copper**: The report provides charts on copper basis, Shanghai electrolytic copper social inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, global copper exchange inventory, SHFE warrant inventory, and copper month - spread [12][14][15]. - **Aluminum**: The report includes charts on aluminum basis, aluminum month - spread, electrolytic aluminum domestic social inventory, electrolytic aluminum overseas exchange inventory, aluminum rod inventory, and Shanghai - London ratio [23][25][27]. - **Nickel**: The report offers charts on nickel basis, nickel month - spread, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, LME nickel trend, and nickel ore port inventory [35][37][39].

姓名：涂伟华 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 黑色金属 | 日报 2026 年 1 月 9 日 煤焦日报 专业研究·创造价值 核心观点 焦炭：截至 1 月 9 日当周，样本独立焦化厂和钢厂焦化厂焦炭日均产量合 计 110.45 万吨，周环比增 0.9 万吨；下游 247 家钢厂铁水日均产量 229.5 万吨，周环比增 2.07 万吨。本周，下游钢厂逐渐复产，但复产速 度偏缓，焦炭基本面改善幅度有限，相对利好仍在于上游焦煤的供应端强 预期。综上，焦炭自身基本面支撑仍较为乏力，不过进入新一年度后，经 济政策预期、"反内卷"政策预期，以及下游冬储补库预期的向上驱动渐 显，带动焦炭期货低位反弹。 焦煤：截至 1 月 9 日当周，全国 523 家炼焦煤矿精煤日均产量 73.4 万 吨，周环比增 4.4 万吨，较去年同期产量偏低 6.9 万吨。需求方面，截至 1 月 9 日当周，样本独立焦化厂和钢厂焦化厂焦炭日均产量合计 110.45 万吨，周环比增 0.9 万吨。整体来看，元旦过后，焦煤预计进入供需两增 格局，短期基本面难言明显改善，但经济政策预期、"反内卷"政策预 期、下游冬储补库预 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The main contract price of rebar showed a weak oscillation, with a daily decline of 1.10%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. Supported by the positive sentiment in the commodity market, the rebar price rebounded from a low level. However, with continuous supply increase and weak demand, fundamental contradictions are accumulating, and the price in the off - season remains under pressure. The cost support is a relative positive factor. It is expected that the subsequent trend will continue to oscillate at a low level. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [5]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil oscillated, with a daily decline of 1.02%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. Currently, the positive commodity sentiment and the strong performance of raw materials have led to a rebound of the hot - rolled coil price from a low level. But the fundamentals have not improved under the situation of increasing supply and weak demand, and the upward driving force is not strong. It is expected that the trend will maintain an oscillating state. Be cautious of the trading logic returning to the industrial side, and pay attention to the demand performance [5]. - The main contract price of iron ore oscillated, with a daily decline of 0.73%, trading volume decreased, and open interest increased. At present, the supply of iron ore is high, while the improvement of demand is limited, and the fundamentals of iron ore have not improved, so the ore price continues to be under pressure. The positive factors are the positive commodity sentiment and the pre - holiday restocking expectation. Under the game of multiple and short factors, the ore price maintains a high - level oscillating state. Attention should be paid to the restocking situation of steel mills [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics - In December 2025, China's PPI decreased by 1.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.3 percentage points compared with the previous month; it increased by 0.2% month - on - month, with the increase expanding by 0.1 percentage points compared with the previous month. The purchasing price of industrial producers decreased by 2.1% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.4 percentage points compared with the previous month; it increased by 0.4% month - on - month, with the increase expanding by 0.3 percentage points compared with the previous month. In 2025, the PPI decreased by 2.6% for the whole year, and the purchasing price of industrial producers decreased by 3.0% [7]. - The Ministry of Water Resources aims to maintain large - scale and high - level water infrastructure construction and investment in 2026, ensuring a good start for water - related work during the 15th Five - Year Plan period [8]. - The iron ore project in Amapá, Brazil, owned 35.7% by British company Cadence Minerals, has obtained a preliminary environmental permit. The project is working on restarting production, with the initial restart time expected to be in 2026. The plant is expected to produce 380,000 - 400,000 tons of iron ore concentrate annually, and the production may gradually increase to 5.5 million tons per year [9]. 2. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,260, 3,200, and 3,340 respectively, with price changes of - 30, - 10, and - 10. The spot prices of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,270, 3,190, and 3,306 respectively, with price changes of - 20, - 20, and - 13. The price of Tangshan billet was 2,980 with no change, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2,090 with no change. The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar was 10, and the spread between rebar and scrap was 1,170 [10]. - The price of PB fines at Shandong ports was 817 with a change of 2, the price of Tangshan iron ore concentrate was 782 with no change. The ocean freight from Australia was 7.92 (down 0.26) and from Brazil was 21.59 (down 0.46). The SGX swap price (current month) was 107.85 (down 1.00), and the Platts index (CFR) was 108.20 (down 1.05) [10]. 3. Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar futures main contract was 3,144, with a decline of 1.10%, the highest price was 3,174, the lowest was 3,128, the trading volume was 1,169,507 (down 181,095), and the open interest was 1,714,863 (down 66,939) [12]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil futures main contract was 3,294, with a decline of 1.02%, the highest price was 3,317, the lowest was 3,274, the trading volume was 515,603 (down 181,277), and the open interest was 1,417,090 (down 23,805) [12]. - The closing price of the iron ore futures main contract was 814.5, with a decline of 0.73%, the highest price was 819.0, the lowest was 809.5, the trading volume was 270,327 (down 172,278), and the open interest was 639,884 (up 3,210) [12]. 4. Related Charts - The section includes charts related to steel inventory (rebar inventory, hot - rolled coil inventory), iron ore inventory (port inventory, steel mill inventory, domestic mine inventory), and steel mill production (blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization, proportion of profitable steel mills, etc.) [14][22][29]. 5. Future Outlook - For rebar, the supply - demand pattern has weakened, inventory has increased significantly, and construction steel mills are resuming production. The weekly output of rebar increased by 28,200 tons month - on - month, and supply continues to rise with room for further increase. Demand continues to weaken seasonally, with the weekly apparent demand decreasing by 254,800 tons month - on - month. Although high - frequency trading volume has rebounded due to holiday factors, both are still at low levels in recent years. It is expected that the subsequent trend will continue to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [39]. - For hot - rolled coil, the supply - demand pattern has changed little. Plate steel mills' production has stabilized, and the weekly output of hot - rolled coil increased by 10,000 tons month - on - month. Supply continues to rise and remains at a relatively high level, and inventory is also high, so supply pressure persists. Demand has weakened, with the weekly apparent demand decreasing by 24,300 tons month - on - month, and daily high - frequency trading volume is at a low level. Although the high output of downstream cold - rolled products provides some support for hot - rolled coil demand, industrial contradictions are accumulating. It is expected that the price will maintain an oscillating state, and attention should be paid to demand performance [40]. - For iron ore, the supply - demand pattern is weak, and inventory continues to rise. Steel mills are resuming production, and the terminal consumption of ore has rebounded from a low level, but the overall increase is small. The improvement space of ore demand is limited, and the positive effect is not strong. Port arrivals have increased, and miner shipments have declined from a high level. Overseas ore supply is high, and domestic ore supply is shrinking, so the overall supply pressure remains. It is expected that the ore price will maintain a high - level oscillating state under the game of multiple and short factors, and attention should be paid to the restocking situation of steel mills [41].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 焦煤 追高需谨慎 （2026 年 1 月 9 日） 新年伊始，焦煤期货价格强势上涨,周三主力合约一度涨停，周四午盘收涨 3%。现货方面,主产区 煤矿成交有所回暖,竞拍成交放量,流拍率大幅下降,但价格仅小幅上涨。焦煤期货价格上涨的主要原因 是商品市场情绪回暖。自 2025 年 10 月以来，大宗商品价格强势上涨,其中有色金属、贵金属和新能 源金属表现较强,市场情绪得到提振,继而带动估值相对偏低的黑色品种走强。 看向基本面，焦煤供需格局并无实质性改善，国内供应稳中有升，主产地多数前期停产煤矿开 始复产，据钢联调研统计 1 月 1 日至 5 日有 49 座煤矿复产，涉及产能 7505 万吨，1 月产量较去年 12 月将增加，且产量高峰期预计将在 3 月实现。同时，高频数据同样佐证煤矿供应在回升，截至 1 月 8 日当周，523 家炼焦煤矿山样本核定产能利用率为 85.3%，原煤日均产量为 189.9 万吨，周环比 分别增 5.7%、12.7 万吨，增幅显著。此外，去年 12 月蒙煤冲量积极，通关车辆维持高位，甘其毛都 口岸去年 12 月日均通关量为 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Report's Core View - For gold, the short - term view is to wait and see with an upward trend, as the short - term safe - haven demand rises due to the cooling macro - atmosphere. For copper, the long - term view is bullish, but short - term多头了结意愿强 due to the cooling macro - atmosphere [1][3][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - Short - term: The market is in a state of oscillation. The short - term safe - haven demand for gold increases as the macro - atmosphere cools, providing support for the gold price. The price of Shanghai gold reached above the 1000 - yuan mark in the night session, and New York gold is near the 4500 - dollar mark. Technically, attention should be paid to the long - short game at the 1000 - yuan mark [1][3] - Medium - term: The market is strong [1] - Intraday: The market is oscillating with a slightly upward trend [1][3] - Reference view: Wait and see [1][3] Copper - Short - term: The market is in a state of oscillation. The short - term macro - atmosphere cools, causing the non - ferrous sector to decline generally, increasing the willingness of 多头 to settle, and the futures price drops from a high level. The intraday market is oscillating with a slightly downward trend, and the open interest decreases significantly. The main futures price once fell below the 100,000 - yuan mark and then recovered. Technically, attention should be paid to the long - short game at the 100,000 - yuan mark [1][4] - Medium - term: The market is strong [1] - Intraday: The market is oscillating with a slightly downward trend [1][4] - Reference view: Bullish in the long run [1][4]