1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - As of January 26, 2026, the closing price of the national carbon market's carbon emission allowances (CEA) was 81.79 yuan/ton, up 12.69% from the same period last month and down 12.46% from the same period last year. The average trading volume of national carbon emission allowances in the past 30 trading days was 145.2 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 64.7 million tons, indicating a decline in the activity of the carbon emission spot market [1][55]. - As of January 27, 2026, the quotation of 5500K coal at Qinhuangdao Port was 686 yuan/ton, 10 yuan/ton higher than the end of last month and 77 yuan/ton lower than the end of 2024. During the peak winter period, the supply and demand of thermal coal are strong, but the market expects long - term looseness. Downstream users are still cautious in purchasing. It is expected that the thermal coal price will remain in a narrow range in February, and may weaken after the Spring Festival [1][55]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Industry News - In 2025, the national carbon market operated smoothly and orderly, with steadily increasing market vitality. The carbon - reduction awareness of key emission units in the carbon emission trading market continued to strengthen, and the quota settlement completion rate remained at a high level. The support area of the voluntary greenhouse gas emission - reduction trading market was further expanded, and the market expanded rapidly. The total number of key emission units under quota management was 3378, including 2087 in the power generation industry, 232 in the steel industry, 962 in the cement industry, and 97 in the aluminum smelting industry. The market operated for 243 trading days. The cumulative trading volume of carbon emission allowances in 2025 was 235 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 24%, and the trading volume was 14.63 billion yuan. The trading price remained in a reasonable range [7]. - In 2026, the National Development and Reform Commission will fully implement the dual control of carbon emission总量 and intensity. It will strengthen work measures in energy transformation, industrial upgrading, comprehensive conservation, and scientific assessment. It will develop non - fossil energy, build a new power system, promote industrial upgrading, implement a comprehensive conservation strategy, and establish a scientific assessment system [10][11][12]. - In 2025, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment carried out climate change response actions, promoted the coordinated progress of pollution reduction and carbon reduction, and accelerated the green and low - carbon transformation. In 2026, it will actively respond to climate change, strengthen ecological environment law enforcement supervision, and improve the adaptability to climate change [13][15][16]. 3.2 National Carbon Market Carbon Emission Allowances (CEA) - As of January 26, 2026, the closing price of CEA was 81.79 yuan/ton, up 12.69% from the same period last month and down 12.46% from the same period last year. In the past 30 trading days, the average trading volume was 141.3 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 67.4 million tons, indicating a decline in market activity [17]. 3.3 Carbon Price Influence Factor Analysis 3.3.1 Energy Price - There is a certain correlation between the carbon emission market and the energy market. When energy demand is strong and energy prices rise, the demand for carbon emission allowances also increases, and a stronger carbon price promotes corporate low - carbon emission reduction. As of January 27, 2026, the port prices of thermal coal at different calorific values and the pit - mouth prices in some regions have changed compared to the end of last month and the end of 2024. The coke price has decreased, and the natural gas price has increased [20][21][22]. 3.3.2 Energy Consumption - From January to November 2025, the cumulative apparent consumption of natural gas nationwide was 388 billion cubic meters, 570 million cubic meters less than the same period last year; the cumulative apparent consumption of coke was 454.5211 million tons, 15.4757 million tons less than the same period last year; from January to December 2025, the total apparent consumption of gasoline, kerosene, and diesel was 376.7113 million tons, 6.2874 million tons less than the same period last year [2][32][56]. 3.3.3 Domestic Carbon Emission Structure - China's total carbon emissions exceed 10 billion tons, accounting for about one - third of global carbon emissions. In 2021, the largest carbon - emitting industry was the "production and supply of electricity, steam, and hot water" with 5.253 billion tons, accounting for 50.72%. By energy type, coal - related energy consumption was the main source of carbon emissions in 2021, accounting for 67.2% of the total [38][40][45]. 3.3.4 Total Social Electricity Consumption - In 2025, the total social electricity consumption was 10.3682 trillion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 5.0%. The electricity consumption of the third industry and urban and rural residents' living contributed 50% to the growth of electricity consumption. The slowdown in the electricity consumption growth rate of the secondary industry was in line with China's economic structural transformation [47]. 3.3.5 Power Generation Structure - In December 2025, the power generation of above - scale industrial enterprises was 858.6 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 0.1%. The proportion of clean energy power generation in December was 32.3%, 2.9 percentage points higher than the same period last year. In 2025, the thermal power generation of above - scale industrial enterprises had a year - on - year negative growth for the first time since 2014, indicating a turning point in the power industry's development model and accelerating the low - carbon transformation of the power system [52][53]. 3.4 Conclusion - The situation of the national carbon market CEA price and trading volume is the same as the core viewpoints. The energy price, energy consumption, and power - related data are also consistent with the previous analysis [55][56][57].

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - There is no information provided regarding the report's investment rating for the non - ferrous metals (copper) industry. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Shanghai Copper main contract has been continuously trading above 100,000 yuan/ton, and the LME copper price has been fluctuating around $13,000/ton. The market shows a "near - weak, far - strong" futures - spot structure, with converging monthly spreads of futures contracts and continuous accumulation of domestic electrolytic copper social inventories, indicating pressure on the spot market and cautious downstream procurement, while forward contracts remain strong due to expected supply - demand tightness [6][63]. - The global financial environment is shifting towards easing. Major economies are adopting looser monetary policies, releasing large - scale liquidity, leading to an upswing in global stock and commodity markets. Copper has stood out in this asset rally, breaking through the post - 2020 infinite QE high in Q4 2025, supported by its solid supply - demand fundamentals [6][63]. - In 2026, against the backdrop of macro - easing, rigid supply constraints and green intelligent demand will continue to drive up copper prices, strengthening the long - term upward foundation for copper prices. However, frequent global geopolitical events since the New Year and the significant price increase since December 2025 have led to strong short - term profit - taking intentions. Copper prices may oscillate at high levels, waiting for the industry to catch up [6][64]. 3. Summary by Report Sections 3.1 Market Review - Price Trend: The Shanghai Copper main contract has been trading above 100,000 yuan/ton, and the LME copper price has been fluctuating around $13,000/ton. The trading volume of Shanghai Copper reached 700,000 contracts at one point and then declined as the upward trend of copper prices slowed [9]. - Market Structure: The market shows a "near - weak, far - strong" futures - spot structure. Converging monthly spreads of futures contracts and continuous inventory build - up in the domestic electrolytic copper market indicate pressure on the spot market and cautious downstream procurement, while forward contracts remain strong due to expected supply - demand tightness [10]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Analysis 3.2.1 Fluctuating Expectations of Fed Rate Cuts - In January 2026, the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in March or April dropped from around 50% at the beginning of the month to below 30% by the end of the month. The decline in the rate - cut probability was accompanied by a rebound of the US dollar index, which then weakened due to the intensification of US tariff policies towards Europe and South Korea [14]. 3.2.2 Frequent Geopolitical Events - Since the New Year, geopolitical events such as the US military action in Venezuela, the tense situation in Iran, and the Greenland issue have increased gold prices and reduced market risk appetite, negatively affecting copper prices. These ongoing geopolitical hotspots have created a high - risk, low - certainty international environment that suppresses the risk appetite of the global market and exerts downward pressure on copper prices [15]. 3.2.3 Domestic Macroeconomic Easing and High - Quality Industrial Development - In January 2026, China's fiscal, monetary, and industrial policies were coordinated to support domestic demand, scientific innovation, and market expectations, providing a solid macro - policy foundation for copper's downstream demand. - The State Grid plans to invest 4 trillion yuan during the 14th Five - Year Plan period (2026 - 2030), a 40% increase from the previous period, which will drive copper consumption through ultra - high - voltage, distribution network, and new energy sectors and strengthen copper's strategic position in energy transformation [17]. 3.3 Industry Analysis 3.3.1 Persistent Disturbances at the Mining End - From January to November 2025, the global copper mine production increased by only about 1% year - on - year. Some major copper mines faced declining ore grades and unexpected incidents, which restricted production growth. - In Chile, the total production decreased by 1.3% due to the decline in some mines. In Peru, production increased by 2.4% due to the increase in several mines. In the Democratic Republic of the Congo, production was estimated to increase by 6.5%. Mongolia's copper concentrate production increased by 34%, while Indonesia's production decreased by about 40% [18][19]. 3.3.2 Marginal Relaxation of Domestic Mining Supply - On January 23, 2026, the domestic copper concentrate port inventory was 569,000 tons, a decrease of about 100,000 tons month - on - month and about 140,000 tons year - on - year, indicating tightening domestic copper ore supply. The high sulfuric acid price and low TC processing fees in January led to a decline in smelter profits compared to December [20][25]. 3.3.3 Contraction of Refined Copper Supply - From January to November 2025, the global electrolytic copper production was 26.177 million tons, a 3.81% increase year - on - year, with primary copper increasing by 3.08% and recycled copper by 7.44%. China and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (accounting for about 57% of global production) are expected to have a combined growth of 9%, while the rest of the world's refined copper production decreased by about 1.7% [26][27]. - The global electrolytic copper consumption from January to November 2025 was 25.89 million tons, a 3.96% increase year - on - year. China's apparent demand for refined copper is expected to increase by about 5.5%, with a 11% decline in net imports. Ex - China consumption increased by about 1.8% [30][31][32]. 3.3.4 Counter - seasonal Inventory Build - up of Electrolytic Copper - As of January 26, 2026, the global exchange inventory was 962,100 tons, an increase of 210,400 tons from the previous month and 510,400 tons from the same period last year. There was a significant divergence between domestic and overseas inventories, with overseas inventories rising continuously at a high level and domestic inventories building up seasonally [41][44]. 3.3.5 Downstream End - Users - Power grid infrastructure construction underpins about 50% of copper's terminal consumption. The State Grid's planned investment of 4 trillion yuan during the 14th Five - Year Plan period will drive copper consumption through ultra - high - voltage, distribution network, and new energy sectors [46][48]. - In 2025, from January to November, the cumulative new photovoltaic installed capacity was 274.89GW, a 33.25% increase year - on - year, and the cumulative new wind power installed capacity was 82.5GW, a 59.42% increase year - on - year. - In 2025, the real estate industry showed negative growth in development investment, new construction area, sales area, and completion area. - In 2025, the production of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines increased slightly, while home appliance exports decreased by 0.6% year - on - year. - In 2025, China's automobile production was 34.7785 million vehicles, a 9.8% increase year - on - year, and the new energy vehicle production was 16.524 million vehicles, a 25.1% increase year - on - year, with a penetration rate of 47.51% [51][55][58][61]. 3.4 Conclusion - The Shanghai Copper main contract has been trading above 100,000 yuan/ton, and the LME copper price has been fluctuating around $13,000/ton. The market shows a "near - weak, far - strong" futures - spot structure. - The global financial environment is shifting towards easing, and copper has outperformed in the asset rally due to its solid supply - demand fundamentals. - In 2026, copper prices have a solid long - term upward foundation but may oscillate at high levels in the short term due to geopolitical events and profit - taking intentions [63][64].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2026 年 1 月 30 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 低位震荡 | 供需格局走弱，钢价低位震荡 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 商品情绪偏暖，钢材期价震荡走高，而螺纹钢供需格局延续季节性弱势，建筑钢厂生产平稳， 螺纹产量环比微增，供应持续增加，但春节临近短流程钢厂将减产，回升空间有限。与此同时，螺 纹钢需求表现偏弱，高频需求指标低位运行，继续位于近年来农历同期低位，且下游行业也未好 转，弱势需求格局未 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2026 年 1 月 30 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需格局变化不大，库存持续攀升，钢厂生产弱稳，矿石终端消耗变化不大，且淡季钢市 矛盾也在累积，预计矿石需求延续偏弱运行态势。与此同时，国内港口到货持续回落，但矿商发运有 所企稳，按船期推算后续到货减量有限，相应内矿供应持续增加，叠加库存高企，供应压力未退。总 之，得益于商品情绪回暖，铁矿石价格震荡回升，但库存高企局面下矿石供应压力未退，而矿石需求 表现偏弱，矿石基本面并未好转，矿价仍易承压，多空因素博弈下预计矿价维持震荡运行态势，关注 钢厂补库情况。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA20 一线压力 | 现实格局不佳，上行驱动有限 ...

姓名：陈栋 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F0251793 投资咨询证号：Z0001617 电话：0571-87006873 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货金融研究所 邮箱：chendong@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货 投资咨询资格证书，本人承诺 以勤勉的职业态度，独立、客 观地出具本报告。本报告清晰 准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或 间接接收到任何形式的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 11615 专业研究·创造价值 2026 年 1 月 29 日 橡胶甲醇原油 风险溢价增强 能化继续走强 核心观点 橡胶：本周四国内沪胶期货 2605 合约呈现放量增仓，震荡上行， 大幅收涨的走势，盘中期价重心大幅上移至 16700 元/吨一线运行。收 盘时期价大幅收涨 2.61%至 16690 元/吨。5-9 月差升水幅度升阔至 115 元/吨。能化板块集体企稳反弹带动沪胶期货重新走强，预计后市胶价 或维持震荡偏强走势。 甲醇：本周四国内甲醇期货 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On January 29, 2026, stock indices showed volatile differentiation. The SSE 50 Index led the gains, while the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 Indices rose first and then fell. The total trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock exchanges was 325.94 billion yuan, an increase of 26.71 billion yuan from the previous day. In the short term, the driving force for the upward movement of stock indices has weakened, and there is a high demand for the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 Indices, which have had large previous gains, to consolidate through fluctuations. The defensive nature of the SSE 50 Index has attracted capital attention. In the medium to long term, positive policy expectations and the continuous net inflow of incremental funds into the stock market are the main supporting forces for the upward movement of stock indices. Overall, stock indices are likely to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term. For options, considering the relatively solid medium - to long - term upward logic of stock indices, a bull spread strategy can be adopted [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Option Indicators - **Index and ETF Performance**: On January 29, 2026, the 50ETF rose 1.85% to 3.196; the 300ETF (SSE) rose 0.91% to 4.768; the 300ETF (SZSE) rose 0.87% to 4.974; the CSI 300 Index rose 0.76% to 4753.87; the CSI 1000 Index fell 0.80% to 8332.21; the 500ETF (SSE) fell 1.15% to 8.591; the 500ETF (SZSE) fell 1.19% to 3.411; the ChiNext ETF fell 0.45% to 3.292; the Shenzhen 100ETF rose 0.17% to 3.476; the SSE 50 Index rose 1.65% to 3110.91; the STAR 50ETF fell 2.81% to 1.59; and the E Fund STAR 50ETF fell 2.72% to 1.54 [6]. - **Volume and Open Interest PCR**: The report provides the volume and open interest PCR data of various options, including the 50ETF option, SSE 300ETF option, SZSE 300ETF option, CSI 300 Index option, CSI 1000 Index option, SSE 500ETF option, SZSE 500ETF option, ChiNext ETF option, Shenzhen 100ETF option, SSE 50 Index option, STAR 50ETF option, and E Fund STAR 50ETF option, and compares them with the previous trading day [7]. - **Implied and Historical Volatility**: The report presents the 2026 February at - the - money implied volatility and 30 - trading - day historical volatility of various options, such as the 50ETF option, SSE 300ETF option, SZSE 300ETF option, CSI 300 Index option, CSI 1000 Index option, SSE 500ETF option, SZSE 500ETF option, ChiNext ETF option, Shenzhen 100ETF option, SSE 50 Index option, STAR 50ETF option, and E Fund STAR 50ETF option [8][9]. 3.2 Relevant Charts - **SSE 50ETF Option**: The report includes charts of the SSE 50ETF option, such as the trend chart, volatility chart, volume PCR chart, open interest PCR chart, implied volatility curve chart, and at - the - money implied volatility chart for different tenors [10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18]. - **SSE 300ETF Option**: It contains charts of the SSE 300ETF option, including the trend chart, volatility chart, volume PCR chart, open interest PCR chart, implied volatility curve chart, and at - the - money implied volatility chart for different tenors [19][20][21]. - **SZSE 300ETF Option**: The report provides charts of the SZSE 300ETF option, such as the trend chart, volatility chart, volume PCR chart, open interest PCR chart, implied volatility curve chart, and at - the - money implied volatility chart for different tenors [22][23][25][27][29][31]. - **CSI 300 Index Option**: Charts of the CSI 300 Index option are presented, including the trend chart, volatility chart, volume PCR chart, open interest PCR chart, implied volatility curve chart, and at - the - money implied volatility chart for different tenors [33][34][36][35]. - **CSI 1000 Index Option**: It includes charts of the CSI 1000 Index option, such as the trend chart, volatility chart, volume PCR chart, open interest PCR chart, implied volatility curve chart, and at - the - money implied volatility chart for different tenors [37][38][40][42][44][46][48]. - **SSE 500ETF Option**: The report offers charts of the SSE 500ETF option, including the trend chart, volatility chart, volume PCR chart, open interest PCR chart, implied volatility curve chart, and at - the - money implied volatility chart for different tenors [50][51][53][55][57][59][60]. - **SZSE 500ETF Option**: Charts of the SZSE 500ETF option are provided, such as the trend chart, volatility chart, volume PCR chart, open interest PCR chart, implied volatility curve chart, and at - the - money implied volatility chart for different tenors [63][64][66][68][70][72][73]. - **ChiNext ETF Option**: The report contains charts of the ChiNext ETF option, including the trend chart, volatility chart, volume PCR chart, open interest PCR chart, implied volatility curve chart, and at - the - money implied volatility chart for different tenors [76][77][79][81][83][84]. - **Shenzhen 100ETF Option**: It includes charts of the Shenzhen 100ETF option, such as the trend chart, volatility chart, volume PCR chart, open interest PCR chart, implied volatility curve chart, and at - the - money implied volatility chart for different tenors [88][89][91][93][95][99]. - **SSE 50 Index Option**: The report provides charts of the SSE 50 Index option, including the trend chart, volatility chart, volume PCR chart, open interest PCR chart, implied volatility curve chart, and at - the - money implied volatility chart for different tenors [101][102][104][106][108][112]. - **STAR 50ETF Option**: Charts of the STAR 50ETF option are presented, including the trend chart, volatility chart, volume PCR chart, open interest PCR chart, implied volatility curve chart, and at - the - money implied volatility chart for different tenors [114][115][116][118][120][122]. - **E Fund STAR 50ETF Option**: The report offers charts of the E Fund STAR 50ETF option, including the trend chart, volatility chart, volume PCR chart, open interest PCR chart, implied volatility curve chart, and at - the - money implied volatility chart for different tenors [124][125].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 运筹帷幄 决胜千里 玻璃 空头优势增强 宝城期货 闾振兴 图为玻璃期货 2605 合约多空前 20 席位持仓变化 值得注意的是，当日多空排行榜前 20 席位中，只有 1 家进行多翻空操作。中辉期货席位在减持 301 手多单的同时增持 5 手空单。这反映出上述席位的交易者认为后市玻璃企稳反弹动力不足，部分增持空单。 采取空翻多操作的席位也只有 1 家。数据显示，方正中期席位在减持 1549 手空单的同时增持 802 手 多单，表明上述席位认为玻璃期价有望企稳反弹。 昨日，在玻璃期货 2605 合约多空排行榜前 20 席位中，由于多头席位减持而空头席位增持，导致净空 头寸扩大至 193870 手，表明空头优势有所增强。预计后市玻璃期货维持震荡偏弱的走势。 发表于 2026.1.29 期货日报第六版 昨日，玻璃期货 2605 合约呈现缩量增仓，震荡偏弱，略微收低的走势，盘中期价最低下探至 1054 元 /吨，最高收涨至 1076 元/吨。收盘报 1067 元/吨，跌幅为 0.56%。持仓略微增加 60 手，至 1205109 手。 交易所多空持仓排行榜前 20 席 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 7 请务必阅读文末免责条款 请务必阅读文末免责条款部分 1 / 8 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2026 年 1 月 29 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 螺纹钢：主力期价震荡走高，录得 1.12%日涨幅，量仓扩大。现阶段， 螺纹钢供应平稳，而需求表现偏弱，基本面延续弱势，淡季钢价承压运 行，相对利好则是商品情绪偏暖，乐观情绪主导下钢价震荡企稳，关注 库存变化情况。 商品情绪偏暖，钢矿震荡走高 热轧卷板：主力期价偏强震荡，录得 0.79%日涨幅，量仓扩大。目前来 看，热卷供需两端均维持 ...

多重利好因素提振 豆类油脂整体偏强 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 生猪 2026 年 1 月 29 日 豆类日报 油脂市场联动走强，主要受多重利好因素共振驱动。美国生物柴油政策的 潜在利好预期持续提振美豆油，而马棕 1 月季节性减产与印度斋月前备货需 求共同强化产地去库预期，叠加国际原油价格坚挺，BMD 毛棕榈油连续上涨。 国内油脂板块强势跟涨。但盘面的过快上涨已经开始抑制现货成交，下游贸易 商接受度低，导致豆油现货基差承压，但远月基差合同成交放量，反映出市场 在为远期供应进行布局。整体来看，油脂板块在进口成本上升与商品市场普涨 氛围支撑下，油脂期价保持偏强运行格局。现货市场随着近月船期采购持续推 进，供应预期趋于宽松，将限制基差走强空间，随着现货交投受到影响，近月 基差面临回落风险。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 姓名：毕慧 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F0268536 投资咨询证号：Z0011311 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：bihui@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协 会授予的期货从业资格证 书，期货投资咨询资格证 书，本人 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The report does not provide an investment rating for the industry. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: On January 29, 2026, copper prices increased with rising positions, breaking through the upper limit of the trading range since January. The trading volume of SHFE copper reached 700,000 contracts, and the main contract price touched 110,000 yuan. LME copper reached $14,000 per ton, rising over 6,000 yuan per ton during the day. Macroscopically, the US dollar index remained weak, leading to a general increase in precious and non - ferrous metals. Industrially, downstream buyers were hesitant, and the spread between February and March contracts continued to narrow, falling below 400 yuan per ton. In the short term, macro factors drove up copper prices, and the industry followed passively [6]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices showed a strong and volatile trend, with trading volume and prices moving in the same direction. Macroscopically, the weak US dollar index led to a general increase in non - ferrous metals. Industrially, downstream buyers were hesitant, and the spread between February and March contracts continued to narrow, falling below 100 yuan per ton. Similar to copper, macro factors drove up aluminum prices, and the industry followed passively [7]. - **Nickel**: Nickel prices increased with rising positions in the morning and decreased with falling positions in the afternoon, showing an overall strong trend. Macroscopically, the weak US dollar was beneficial to non - ferrous metals. Industrially, the LME nickel 0 - 3 spread continued to narrow, and the domestic February - March spread also fell below 400 yuan per ton, reflecting a situation of strong expectations and weak reality. Macro factors drove up nickel prices, and the expected supply contraction supported nickel prices, while the weak industrial reality put pressure on them [8]. 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: On January 29, LME copper prices soared, hitting a record high of $13,965 per ton, with a cumulative increase of nearly 12% this year. Other major base metals also rose, and aluminum prices reached a three - year high. The strong performance of the commodity market at the beginning of the year was due to the weak US dollar, increased demand for physical assets, and geopolitical tensions. The weak US dollar made commodities more attractive to buyers [10]. - **Aluminum**: According to SMM data on January 29, the weekly ratio of molten aluminum in domestic electrolytic aluminum production was 72.64%, a decrease of 2.25 percentage points from the previous week, and a cumulative decrease of 3 percentage points in January [11]. 3.2 Relevant Charts - **Copper**: The report includes charts on copper basis, month - to - month spreads, Shanghai electrolytic copper social inventory, global copper exchange inventory (SHFE + LME + COMEX), LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [12][13][15]. - **Aluminum**: The report includes charts on aluminum basis, month - to - month spreads, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum (LME + COMEX), Shanghai - London ratio, and aluminum bar inventory [26][28][30]. - **Nickel**: The report includes charts on nickel basis, LME inventory, LME nickel price trend, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [38][40][42].