1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report is a daily report on futures variety arbitrage data from Baocheng Futures on October 13, 2025, presenting the basis, inter - period, and inter - variety data of multiple futures varieties including thermal coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures [1][5][19][26][39][49]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Thermal Coal - The basis data for thermal coal from September 26 to October 10, 2025, is presented, with the basis on October 10 being - 96.4 yuan/ton, and the 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 1 - month, and 9 - month minus 5 - month spreads all being 0.0 [2]. 3.2 Energy Chemicals 3.2.1 Energy Commodities - Basis data for fuel oil, crude oil/asphalt, INE crude oil, etc., from September 26 to October 10, 2025, are provided, such as the basis of INE crude oil on October 10 being 47.20 yuan/ton [7]. 3.2.2 Chemical Commodities - Basis data for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, PP from September 26 to October 10, 2025, are shown. For example, the basis of rubber on October 10 was - 665 yuan/ton [9]. - Inter - period data for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are presented, including 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 1 - month, and 9 - month minus 5 - month spreads [11]. - Inter - variety data for LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, PP - 3 * methanol from September 26 to October 10, 2025, are given, like the LLDPE - PVC spread on October 10 being 2298 yuan/ton [11]. 3.3 Black Metals - Basis data for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from September 26 to October 10, 2025, are provided. For instance, the basis of rebar on October 10 was 157.0 yuan/ton [19]. - Inter - period data for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are presented, including 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9(10) - month minus 1 - month, and 9(10) - month minus 5 - month spreads [20]. - Inter - variety data for rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot - rolled coil from September 26 to October 10, 2025, are given, such as the rebar/iron ore ratio on October 10 being 3.91 [20]. 3.4 Non - Ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Domestic Market - Domestic basis data for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from September 26 to October 10, 2025, are presented. For example, the basis of copper on October 10 was 700 yuan/ton [29]. 3.4.2 London Market - LME non - ferrous metal data including copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on October 10, 2025, are provided, including LME premium/discount, Shanghai - London ratio, CIF, domestic spot price, and import profit/loss [33]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - Basis data for soybeans No. 1, soybeans No. 2, soybean meal, soybean oil, corn, etc., from September 26 to October 10, 2025, are shown. For example, the basis of soybeans No. 1 on October 10 was 7327.3 yuan/ton [39]. - Inter - period data for soybeans No. 1, soybeans No. 2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, etc., are presented, including 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 1 - month, and 9 - month minus 5 - month spreads [39]. - Inter - variety data for soybeans No. 1/corn, soybeans No. 2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, soybean meal - rapeseed meal, etc., from September 26 to October 10, 2025, are given, such as the soybean oil/soybean meal ratio on October 10 being 2.85 [39]. 3.6 Stock Index Futures - Basis data for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from September 26 to October 10, 2025, are provided. For example, the basis of CSI 300 on October 10 was 24.63 [50]. - Inter - period data for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are presented, including next - month minus current - month and next - quarter minus current - quarter spreads [50].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For stock index futures, Trump's sudden tariff threat will disrupt the stock index in the short - term. Last week, each stock index rose first and then fell, with a slight decline. In the long - term, policy expectations and capital inflows support the stock index. The subsequent trend of the stock index depends on the game between policy expectation fermentation and profit - taking. Trump's tariff threat on Friday night led to a sharp drop in US stock indexes, bringing short - term pressure on the stock market, but the impact on A - shares is weaker than in early April [1][7][79]. - For ETF options and stock index options, maintain a bull spread in a low - volatility state. The implied volatility of options has declined to a low level. Since the probability of the stock index rising in the long - term is high, one can hold a bull spread or a ratio spread with a mild bullish view [2][80]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review 3.1.1 Stock Index Trends - Last week, each stock index rose first and then fell, with a slight decline. Due to the significant increase in stock valuations, the profit - taking intention of profitable funds increased. With policy benefits about to be implemented, the policy - driven effect will weaken. In the long - term, policy expectations and capital inflows support the stock index [7]. - The table shows the price changes of spot indexes. For example, the Shanghai Composite 50 Index closed at 2974.854, with a daily decline of 1.51% and a weekly decline of 0.47% [8]. 3.1.2 Option Price Trends - This week, the 50ETF had a weekly decline of 1.90%, closing at 3.045; the 300ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) had a weekly decline of 0.37%, closing at 4.604; etc. The report also provides the price changes and weekly fluctuations of various option underlying assets and the weekly price changes of the main contracts of each option variety [13][14][15]. 3.1.3 Stock Index Futures Basis and Monthly Spread - The basis of the four stock index futures varieties shows that IF and IH are at normal quantile levels, while IM and IC are in a state of significant far - month futures discounts. The inter - period spreads of IC and IM futures have increased, indicating a strong short - term risk preference for IC and IM in the market [19]. 3.2 Option Indicators 3.2.1 PCR Indicators - The report provides the trading volume PCR and open interest PCR of various options, such as the Shanghai Composite 50ETF option, with a trading volume PCR of 113.82 and an open interest PCR of 71.82 [31]. 3.2.2 Implied Volatility - The report provides the implied volatility of at - the - money options in October 2025 and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying assets for various options. For example, the implied volatility of the Shanghai Composite 50ETF option's at - the - money option in October 2025 is 16.72%, and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying asset is 15.73% [52]. 3.3 Conclusion - Similar to the core viewpoints, for stock index futures, Trump's tariff threat disrupts the stock index in the short - term, and the stock index will fluctuate widely in the short - term. For ETF options and stock index options, maintain a bull spread in a low - volatility state [79][80].

x30003 姓名：陈栋 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F0251793 投资咨询证号：Z0001617 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：chendong@bcqhgs.com 报告日期：2025 年 10 月 13 日 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货 投资咨询资格证书，本人承诺 以勤勉的职业态度，独立、客 观地出具本报告。本报告清晰 准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或 间接接收到任何形式的报酬。 甲醇 | 周报 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 2025 年 10 月 13 日 甲醇周报 专业研究·创造价值 偏空因素主导 甲醇偏弱运行 核心观点 甲醇：美国总统特朗普再度掀起关税战，目标直指中国，引发 上周五外围金融市场集体走弱。同时美国两党迟迟无法达成共识，导 致联邦政府持续停摆。除了宏观情绪转弱外，当前国内甲醇供需基本 面也较为疲弱。在偏空因素压制下，上周五国内甲醇期货 2601 合约虽 超跌反弹，但缺乏继续上行的动力，均线维持空头排列的态势。 甲醇-MA 美国两党迟迟无法达成共识，导致联邦政府持续停 ...

ni 姓名：陈栋 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F0251793 投资咨询证号：Z0001617 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：chendong@bcqhgs.com 报告日期：2025 年 10 月 13 日 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货 投资咨询资格证书，本人承诺 以勤勉的职业态度，独立、客 观地出具本报告。本报告清晰 准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或 间接接收到任何形式的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 专业研究·创造价值 2025 年 10 月 13 日 原油周报 多重利空叠加 原油大幅回落 核心观点 原油：美国总统特朗普再度掀起关税战，目标直指中国，引 发上周五外围金融市场集体走弱。同时美国两党迟迟无法达成共 识，导致联邦政府持续停摆。在系统性风险爆发的背景下，利空情 绪快速传导并引发上周五国内原油期货 2512 合约大幅收低 4.27% 至 448.5 元/桶。预计后市国内原油期货 2512 合约或维持震荡偏弱 的走势。 原油-SC 宝城期货金融研究所 美国两党迟迟无法达成共识， ...

◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货股指期货早报（2025 年 10 月 13 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2512 | 震荡 | 上涨 | 震荡偏弱 | 宽幅震荡 | 短期资金止盈意愿 VS 中长期政策 利好预期发酵 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：上涨 参考观点：宽幅震荡 核心逻辑：上周五各股指均震荡下跌。沪深京三市全天成交额 25341 亿元，较上日缩量 1377 亿元 ...

4 正文目录 1 市场回顾 .....................................................................4 1.1 现货价格振荡回升，基差走阔 ............................................... 4 1.2 期价上涨，月差转为升水 ................................................... 4 姓名：陈栋 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F0251793 投资咨询证号：Z0001617 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：chendong@bcqhgs.com 报告日期：2025 年 10 月 13 日 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货 投资咨询资格证书，本人承诺 以勤勉的职业态度，独立、客 观地出具本报告。本报告清晰 准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或 间接接收到任何形式的报酬。 专业研究·创造价值 2025 年 10 月 13 日 橡胶周报 系统性风险出现 橡胶弱势下行 核心观点 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 资讯早班车 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 13 请务必阅读文末免责条款 资讯早班车 二、商品投资参考 资讯早班车-2025-10-13 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 20250715 | 2025/06 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 5.20 | 5.40 | 4.70 | | 20250930 | 2025/09 | 制造业 PMI | % | 49.80 | 49.40 | 49.80 | | 20250930 | 2025/09 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活 动 | % | 50.00 | 50.30 | 50.00 | | 20250915 | 2025/08 | 社会融资规模增量:当 | 亿元 | | 25668.00 11307.00 | 30323.00 | | | | 月值 | | | | | | 20250912 | 2025/08 | M0(流通中的现金 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货股指期货早报（2025 年 10 月 13 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2512 | 震荡 | 上涨 | 震荡偏强 | 宽幅震荡 | 短期资金止盈意愿 VS 中长期政策 利好预期发酵 | 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：上涨 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 参考观点：宽幅震荡 核心逻辑：上周五各股指均震荡下跌。沪深京三市全天成交额 25341 亿元，较上日缩量 1377 亿元。 由于股票估值端提升明显，获利资 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term and medium - term outlook for TL2512 is "sideways", and the intraday view is "sideways with a slight upward bias", with an overall view of "sideways" due to the existence of long - term interest rate cut expectations but a low possibility of short - term comprehensive interest rate cuts [1]. - For the TL, T, TF, and TS varieties, the intraday view is "sideways with a slight upward bias", the medium - term view is "sideways", and the overall view is "sideways". In the short term, the upward momentum and downward space of treasury bond futures are limited, and they will mainly undergo bottom - side consolidation [5]. Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2512 variety, the short - term, medium - term, and overall views are "sideways", and the intraday view is "sideways with a slight upward bias". The core logic is that long - term interest rate cut expectations remain, but the possibility of short - term comprehensive interest rate cuts is low [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view of TL, T, TF, and TS is "sideways with a slight upward bias", and the medium - term view is "sideways", with an overall view of "sideways". Last Friday, treasury bond futures oscillated and slightly pulled back. In the short term, the strong risk appetite in the stock market suppresses bond - buying demand, the necessity of short - term comprehensive interest rate cuts is low, and the recent rebound of treasury bond futures limits their short - term upward momentum. However, due to the need for a moderately loose monetary environment on the macro - economic demand side, the treasury bond futures have strong support at the bottom in the long run. The tariff threat from Trump on Friday night increased market risk - aversion sentiment, which is short - term positive for treasury bond futures [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term view of rebar 2601 is weak and volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, and the intraday view is also weak and volatile. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at the MA20 line. The core logic is the accumulation of industrial contradictions and the steel price is seeking the bottom weakly [1]. - Under the double - weak situation of supply and demand, the industrial contradictions continue to accumulate, the inventory increases significantly during the holiday, the steel price is under pressure again, and the steel price is expected to continue the volatile bottom - seeking trend in the short term. It is necessary to pay attention to the demand recovery after the holiday [2]. 3. Summary by Related Contents 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2601, the short - term is weak and volatile, the medium - term is volatile, and the intraday is weak and volatile. The reference view is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA20 line, and the core logic is the accumulation of industrial contradictions and the steel price is seeking the bottom weakly [1]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - Due to tariff disturbances, market sentiment has weakened, and the spot price of steel has fallen over the weekend. Rebar continues the double - weak situation of supply and demand. The production of construction steel mills is weakening, supply is shrinking, but the reduction space in the peak season is questionable, and the inventory is relatively high, so the positive effect is not strong. - Affected by the holiday, demand is weak, and there is no improvement in the downstream. The quality of the peak season needs to be tracked. - Currently, rebar supply is shrinking and demand is weak. Under the double - weak situation, industrial contradictions continue to accumulate. The inventory has increased significantly during the holiday, and the steel price is under pressure again. The relative positive factor is cost support. In the short term, the weak sentiment dominates, and the steel price is expected to continue the volatile bottom - seeking trend. It is necessary to pay attention to the demand recovery after the holiday [2].