期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2026 年 1 月 12 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2605 | 偏强 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡偏强 | 供应扰动仍存，焦煤低位反弹 | | | | 震荡 | | 偏强 | | | | 焦炭 | 2605 | 偏强 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡偏强 | 成本支撑改善，焦炭低位反弹 | | | | 震荡 | | 偏强 | | | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 日内观点：震荡偏强 中 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The spot price of thermal coal is expected to fluctuate, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday views all being "oscillation". The core logic is that in the first week of 2026, domestic thermal coal prices showed a slight upward trend. The marginal recovery of coal production is limited, and the supply contraction expectation is enhanced due to the approaching Spring Festival. Meanwhile, the coal demand in coastal cities has improved, and the inventory in Bohai Rim ports has decreased week - on - week, leading to an improvement in the supply - demand pattern and a slight upward price [1][5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Contents Price and View - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of thermal coal spot are all "oscillation". The core logic is the improvement of power coal demand and a slight increase in port coal prices [1]. Price Driving Logic - In the first week of 2026, domestic thermal coal prices maintained a slight upward trend. Coal production has a limited marginal recovery, and the supply contraction expectation is strengthened as the Spring Festival approaches. The decrease in domestic temperature has accelerated the improvement of coal demand in coastal cities. As of January 8, the total coal inventory in 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 26.713 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.614 million tons and 1.781 million tons higher than the same period last year. The supply - demand pattern has improved, and prices have stopped falling and risen slightly [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - The steel price of rebar 2605 is expected to continue the low - level oscillation, with the short - term, medium - term and intraday trends being oscillation, oscillation and oscillation with a weak bias respectively, due to the weakening fundamentals and the pressure on steel prices during the off - season [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2605, the short - term view is oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the intraday view is oscillation with a weak bias, with an overall view of low - level oscillation. The core logic is the weakening fundamentals and the pressure on steel prices during the off - season. The calculation methods for price rise and fall amplitude and strength classification are also provided [2] 3.2 Market Driving Logic - Over the weekend, steel spot prices remained stable with weak trading. The supply - demand pattern of rebar is weak, with inventory starting to increase. Rebar supply is continuously rising and has room for further increase, weakening the positive effect of the low - supply pattern. Meanwhile, rebar demand is sluggish, with high - frequency demand indicators at a low level in recent years, and the downstream industry has not improved, continuing the seasonal weakness and dragging down steel prices. The current situation is that supply increases while demand is weak, and the fundamental contradictions are accumulating, putting pressure on steel prices during the off - season. The relatively positive factors are the acceptable commodity sentiment and cost support [3]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2026 年 1 月 12 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏弱 核心逻辑：国内豆粕市场呈现近强远弱、多空交织的震荡偏强格局。节后饲料厂与贸易商补库需求释放， 带动成交放量，豆粕库存去化，为价格提供支撑。成本端，美豆价格反弹及巴西升贴水坚挺，叠加汇率因 素，进口成本支撑增强。近月合约受供给担忧及备货需求推动更为强势，油厂及贸易商挺价意愿明显。整 体看，豆粕市场受库存去化、成本支撑及补货需求推动震荡偏强，但受制于远期供应宽松预期，上行空间 受限。短期在美农报告前，市场资金表现或谨慎，日内震荡偏弱运行为主。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2026 年 1 月 12 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2605 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 关注 MA5 一线支撑 | 利多因素未退，矿价高位运行 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 期货研究报告 公司地址：浙江省杭州市求是路 8 号公元大厦南裙 1-5 楼。 咨询热线：400 618 1199 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需格局变化不大，港存高位持续攀升，年后钢厂如期复产，矿石终端消耗低位回升，但 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货股指期货早报（2026 年 1 月 12 日） 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏强 核心逻辑：上周五各股指均震荡上涨，其中 IM 与 IC 涨幅较大。沪深京三市成交额 31523 亿元，较 上日放量 3261 亿元。股市成交金额大幅放量，融资买入金额保持高位，说明目前投资者风险偏好较 为积极乐观。由于股指已经突破前期的震荡区间上沿，后续股指大概率保持相对强势。政策面利好预 期以及资金净流入股市趋势共同构成股指上行的主要逻辑。2026 年政策面逐渐进入落实落细政策利 好的阶段，政策利好预期持续发酵；自 12 月中旬以来，融资资金持续净流入股市，融资余额持续上 升，杠杆资金的持续入市提振了市场情绪，考虑到存量到期存单的资产再配置需求，后续或将带动更 多资金配置权益资产。总的来说，预计短期内股指震荡偏强运行。 ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品 ...

期货研究报告 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-10-20 | 2025/09 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 4.8 | 5.2 | 4.6 | | 2025-12-31 | 2025/12 | 制造业 PMI | % | 50.1 | 49.8 | 50.1 | | 2025-12-31 | 2025/12 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活动 | % | 50.2 | 50.0 | 52.2 | | 2025-12-15 | 2025/11 | 社会融资规模:当月值 | 亿元 | 24888 | 25660 | 23288 | | 2025-12-12 | 2025/11 | M0:同比 | % | 10.6 | 11.7 | 12.7 | | 2025-12-12 | 2025/11 | M1:同比 | % | 4.9 | 6.0 | -0.7 | | 2025-12-12 | 2025/11 | M2:同比 | % ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report is the Baocheng Futures Variety Arbitrage Data Daily Report for January 12, 2026, presenting data on basis, inter - month spreads, and inter - commodity spreads for various futures products across multiple sectors [1] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Power Coal - The report shows the basis and inter - month spreads (5 - 1, 9 - 1, 9 - 5) of power coal from January 5 to January 9, 2026. The inter - month spreads were all 0, and the basis values ranged from - 116.4 to - 102.4 yuan/ton [1][2] 3.2 Energy and Chemicals 3.2.1 Energy Commodities - It provides basis data for fuel oil, INE crude oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt from January 5 to January 9, 2026, along with other related data such as spreads and price ratios [6] 3.2.2 Chemical Commodities - **Basis**: The basis data for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, and PP from January 5 to January 9, 2026, are presented. For example, the rubber basis ranged from - 430 to - 240 yuan/ton [8] - **Inter - month Spreads**: Inter - month spreads (5 - 1, 9 - 1, 9 - 5) for rubber, methanol, etc., are given. For instance, the 5 - 1 spread of LLDPE was 242 yuan/ton [10] - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: Inter - commodity spreads such as LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, etc., from January 5 to January 9, 2026, are shown. The LLDPE - PVC spread on January 9 was 1779 yuan/ton [10] 3.3 Black Metals - **Basis**: The basis data for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from January 5 to January 9, 2026, are provided. The rebar basis on January 9 was 136.0 yuan/ton [20] - **Inter - month Spreads**: Inter - month spreads (5 - 1, 9(10) - 1, 9(10) - 5) for rebar, iron ore, etc., are presented. The 9(10) - 1 spread of rebar was 89.0 yuan/ton [19] - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: Inter - commodity spreads like rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, etc., from January 5 to January 9, 2026, are given. The rebar/iron ore ratio on January 9 was 3.86 [19] 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Domestic Market - The domestic basis data for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from January 5 to January 9, 2026, are provided. For example, the copper basis on January 9 was - 440 yuan/ton [29] 3.4.2 London Market - Data on LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss for copper, aluminum, etc., on January 9, 2026, are presented. The LME spread of copper was 41.94 [32] 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis data for soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, etc., from January 5 to January 9, 2026, are shown. The soybean meal basis on January 9 was 364 yuan/ton [38] - **Inter - month Spreads**: Inter - month spreads (5 - 1, 9 - 1, 9 - 5) for soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, etc., are given. The 5 - 1 spread of soybeans No.1 was 47 yuan/ton [38] - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: Inter - commodity spreads such as soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, etc., from January 5 to January 9, 2026, are presented. The soybeans No.1/corn ratio on January 9 was 1.94 [38] 3.6 Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis data for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from January 5 to January 9, 2026, are provided. The CSI 300 basis on January 9 was 15.12 [49] - **Inter - month Spreads**: Inter - month spreads (next month - current month, next quarter - current quarter) for CSI 300, SSE 50, etc., are given. The next month - current month spread of CSI 300 was - 11.4 [49]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货金融研究所 姓名：陈栋 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F0251793 投资咨询证号：Z0001617 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：chendong@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货 投资咨询资格证书，本人承诺 以勤勉的职业态度，独立、客 观地出具本报告。本报告清晰 准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或 间接接收到任何形式的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 11615 2026 年 1 月 9 日 橡胶甲醇原油 专业研究·创造价值 偏多因素提振 能化震荡偏强 核心观点 橡胶：本周五国内沪胶期货 2605 合约呈现缩量增仓，震荡偏弱， 小幅收低的走势，盘中期价重心小幅下移至 16030 元/吨一线运行。收 盘时期价小幅收低 0.96%至 16030 元/吨。5-9 月差贴水幅度升阔至 25 元/吨。目前国内胶市由供需基本面所主导，胶价摆脱三角形区间震荡， 维持震荡偏强格局。 甲醇：本周五国内甲醇期货 26 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2) Core View of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of rebar has weakened, with a significant increase in inventory. The weekly output of rebar increased by 2820 tons week - on - week, and the supply continued to rise with room for further growth. The demand continued to weaken seasonally, with the weekly apparent demand decreasing by 25480 tons week - on - week. Although high - frequency transactions rebounded due to holiday factors, both remained at low levels in recent years. The downstream industry was weak, and the weak demand pattern remained unchanged, continuing to put pressure on steel prices. The rebar price rebounded from a low level due to the warm sentiment in commodities, but with increasing supply and weak demand, fundamental contradictions began to accumulate. The steel price in the off - season continued to be under pressure, and the cost support was a relative positive factor. It is expected that the subsequent trend will continue to fluctuate at a low level, and the production situation of steel mills should be monitored [12]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - The weekly output of rebar was 191040 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2820 tons, and an increase of 2820 tons compared to the end of last month. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 86.04%, a week - on - week increase of 0.78 percentage points, and an increase of 0.78 percentage points compared to the end of last month. Compared with the same period (lunar calendar), the output decreased by 27690 tons, and the blast furnace capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.09 percentage points [3]. Demand - The weekly apparent demand for rebar was 174960 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 25480 tons, and a decrease of 25480 tons compared to the end of last month. The weekly average value of Steel Union building material transactions was 9810 tons, a week - on - week increase of 190 tons, and an increase of 190 tons compared to the end of last month. Compared with the same period (lunar calendar), the apparent demand decreased by 63720 tons, and the weekly average value of transactions decreased by 1040 tons [3]. Inventory - The total inventory of rebar was 438110 tons, a week - on - week increase of 16080 tons, and an increase of 16080 tons compared to the end of last month. The in - plant inventory was 147930 tons, a week - on - week increase of 8560 tons, and an increase of 8560 tons compared to the end of last month. The social inventory was 290180 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7520 tons, and an increase of 7520 tons compared to the end of last month. Compared with the same period (lunar calendar), the total inventory increased by 35090 tons, the in - plant inventory increased by 27650 tons, and the social inventory increased by 7440 tons [3]