◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2026 年 1 月 29 日） | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2604 | 强势 | 强势 | 强势 | 长线看强 | 议息会议落地，避险需求推升金 价 | | 铜 | 2603 | 震荡 | 强势 | 弱势 | 观望 | 强预期弱现实 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：强势 中期观点：强势 参考观点：长线看强 品种：铜（CU） 核心逻辑：昨日贵金属在国内夜盘收盘后持续拉升，伦敦金由 5300 美元一线 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report presents the daily arbitrage data of various futures varieties on January 29, 2026, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, with specific data on basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - variety spreads [1][5][24][30][39][51]. 3. Summary by Category Power Coal - Basis data from January 22 to January 28, 2026, shows that on January 28, the basis was - 111 yuan/ton, compared to - 116 yuan/ton in the previous few days [1][2]. Energy Chemicals Energy Commodities - Basis data for fuel oil, crude oil, and asphalt from January 22 to January 28, 2026, is provided, along with price ratios and basis values for INE crude oil [7]. Chemical Commodities - Basis data for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, and PP from January 22 to January 28, 2026, shows fluctuations in basis values for each commodity [9]. - Inter - period spreads for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are presented, including 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month spreads [10]. - Inter - variety spreads for LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3*methanol from January 22 to January 28, 2026, are provided [10]. Black Metals - Basis data for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from January 22 to January 28, 2026, shows changes in basis values [24]. - Inter - period spreads for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are presented, including 5 - 1 month, 9(10) - 1 month, and 9(10) - 5 month spreads [23]. - Inter - variety spreads for rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot rolled coil from January 22 to January 28, 2026, are provided [23]. Non - Ferrous Metals Domestic Market - Domestic basis data for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from January 22 to January 28, 2026, shows significant fluctuations [32]. London Market - LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss data for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on January 28, 2026, are provided [35]. Agricultural Products - Basis data for soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn from January 22 to January 28, 2026, shows changes in basis values [39]. - Inter - period spreads for soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, corn, sugar, and cotton are presented, including 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month spreads [39]. - Inter - variety spreads for soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, soybean meal - rapeseed meal, soybean oil - palm oil, rapeseed oil - soybean oil, and corn - corn starch from January 22 to January 28, 2026, are provided [39]. Stock Index Futures - Basis data for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from January 22 to January 28, 2026, shows fluctuations [51]. - Inter - period spreads for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000, including next - month to current - month and next - quarter to current - quarter spreads, are presented [51].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The domestic soybean meal market is in a game between external cost drivers, pre - holiday stocking support, and its own loose supply expectations. In the short term, the soybean meal futures price mainly follows the external market fluctuations, and may show a trend of rising and then falling during the day [5][6]. - The palm oil futures price is in a period of multiple positive resonances, and its strong pattern continues. In the short term, driven by fundamentals and sentiment, it remains the core variety in the oil and fat sector and maintains a relatively strong operating pattern [7]. Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Soybean Meal (M) - **Short - term, Mid - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term:震荡 (oscillation); Mid - term:震荡 (oscillation); Intraday:震荡偏弱 (oscillation with a weak bias); View reference:震荡偏弱 (oscillation with a weak bias) [5]. - **Core Logic**: The continuous high - temperature and drought in Argentina's core producing areas have pushed up the price of US soybeans. The US dollar index has weakened, reducing the cost of US - dollar - denominated agricultural products. The domestic soybean meal market is affected by the external market, and the pre - holiday stocking supports the price, but the new procurement is light. The soybean meal inventory of oil mills is passively reduced. Overall, it is in a game situation [5]. - **Factors Affecting**: Imported soybean cost, import arrival rhythm, oil mill start - up rhythm, and inventory pressure [5]. Palm Oil (P) - **Short - term, Mid - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term:强势 (strong); Mid - term:强势 (strong); Intraday:震荡偏强 (oscillation with a strong bias); View reference:震荡偏强 (oscillation with a strong bias) [5]. - **Core Logic**: Palm oil is in a period of multiple positive resonances, including improved supply - demand in the producing areas, favorable demand substitution, policy expectation support, and strong domestic sentiment. The dual drivers of improved supply - demand in the producing areas and rising domestic market sentiment will further consolidate its strong foundation [7]. - **Factors Affecting**: Malaysian palm oil production and exports, Indonesian biodiesel and export policies, EU - related policy changes, domestic arrival and inventory, and substitution demand [5]. Soybean Oil (Y) - **Short - term, Mid - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term:强势 (strong); Mid - term:强势 (strong); Intraday:震荡偏强 (oscillation with a strong bias); View reference:震荡偏强 (oscillation with a strong bias) [5]. - **Factors Affecting**: US soybean cost support, US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory [5].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需格局持续走弱，直接体现库存高位攀升，钢厂生产趋稳，且淡季钢市矛盾累积，矿石 需求表现弱稳，相对利好则是节前钢厂补库。与此同时，国内港口到货持续回落，但矿商发运有所企 稳，按船期推算后续到货减量有限，相应内矿供应持续增加，叠加库存高企，供应压力未退。总之， 海外矿石发运企稳，且港口库存高企，矿石供应压力尚存，而矿石需求则是弱稳运行，矿石基本面表 现偏弱，矿价承压运行，相对利好则是商品偏暖情绪，预计走势维持震荡运行态势，关注钢厂补库情 况。 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2026 年 1 月 29 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | - ...

期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 观点参考 宝城期货动力煤早报（2026 年 1 月 29 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | | | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 观点参考 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：动力煤现货 日内观点： 中期观点： 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：供应端，1 月 16 日当周，全国 462 家动力煤矿产能利用率 90.6%，日均原煤产量 546.7 万吨，恢复至 12 月中旬水平。进入新一年度，此前部分因完成年度目标停产的煤矿陆续复产，且 尚未进入春节放假阶段，产地煤矿平稳生产。进口方面，1 月前两周，我国海运煤到港量 1325.2 万吨，折合日均到港量 110.4 万吨，较 12 月日均 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货股指期货早报（2026 年 1 月 29 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 震荡整理 | 估值端提升较快，股指震荡整固 需求升温 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡整理 核心逻辑：昨日各股指均震荡整理。沪深京三市成交额 29923 亿元，较上日放量 708 亿元。目前股 市处于震荡整理行情，资金面在追涨与止盈之间出现分歧，日内反复波动 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Investment Rating for the Industry No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The methanol 2605 contract is expected to run strongly in the short - term, with a short - term outlook of oscillation, a medium - term outlook of oscillation, and an intraday outlook of strength [1][5]. - The methanol futures in the domestic market are likely to maintain an oscillating and strengthening trend on Thursday, January 29, 2026 [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Time - cycle Viewpoints - **Short - term**: The methanol 2605 contract is expected to oscillate [1]. - **Medium - term**: The medium - term view for methanol is oscillation [1][5]. - **Intraday**: The intraday view for methanol is strength, and the reference view is that it will run strongly [1][5]. 3.2 Core Logic - Overseas supply "hard - contraction" is the strongest support factor for the recent upward movement of methanol prices, with Iran, a major import source, facing serious supply disruptions [5]. - The depletion of methanol inventory at domestic ports has led to a recovery in port spot prices, a stronger basis, and increased confidence among long - position holders in the futures market [5]. - Geopolitical risks, such as the arrival of a US military aircraft carrier in the Middle East and Iran's tough statements, may further intensify the US - Iran conflict, increasing the premium on methanol [1][5]. - Although the domestic methanol futures opened high and closed low on Wednesday night with a slight decline, the retracement space was limited [5].

宝城期货橡胶早报-2026-01-29 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 偏多氛围支撑，沪胶震荡偏强 | | 合成胶 | 2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 偏多氛围支撑，合成胶震荡偏强 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶（RU） 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：目前国内云南和海南天胶产区已进入停割季，国产全乳胶供应压力显著下降，而东 ...

Group 1 - The investment rating for the industry is not provided in the report [1][5] Group 2 - The core view of the report is that in the short - term, Treasury bond futures will mainly fluctuate and consolidate. Although they are supported by the need for a loose monetary and credit environment due to weak macro data, the possibility of a comprehensive interest - rate cut in the short - term is low, resulting in limited upward and downward space [1][5] Group 3 Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2603 variety, the short - term view is "fluctuation", the medium - term view is "fluctuation", the intraday view is "weakening", and the overall view is "fluctuation and consolidation". The core logic is that the possibility of a comprehensive interest - rate cut in the short - term has decreased [1] Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is "weakening", the medium - term view is "fluctuation", and the reference view is "fluctuation and consolidation". The core logic is that Treasury bond futures fluctuated and consolidated yesterday with a slight increase. Macro data such as December's consumption, investment, and new credit have weakened, and there is still a lack of effective domestic demand. A loose monetary and credit environment is needed, which provides support for Treasury bond futures. However, due to the central bank's structural interest - rate cut, the possibility of a comprehensive interest - rate cut in the short - term is low, so the upward momentum is insufficient, and both the upward and downward space is limited [5]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2026 年 1 月 29 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 低位震荡 | 预期现实博弈，钢价延续震荡 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 公司地址：浙江省杭州市求是路 8 号公元大厦南裙 1-5 楼。 咨询热线：400 618 1199 获 取 每 日 期 货 观 点 推 送 扫码关注宝城期货官方微信·期货咨询尽在掌握 服 务 国 家 走 向 世 界 知行合一 专 业 敬 业 诚 信 至 上 合 规 经 营 严谨管理 开 拓 进 取 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区 ...