投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 7 月 8 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡思路 核心逻辑：7 月 7 日夜盘，焦煤主力合约震荡运行，录得 0.24%的跌幅，报收于 834.5 元/吨。周 度供需数据来看，截至 7 月 4 日当周，全国 523 家炼焦煤矿精煤日均产量 73.9 万吨，环比增 0.1 万吨，较去年同期偏低 2.7 万吨。需求端，独立焦化厂和钢厂焦化厂焦炭日均产量合计 111.81 万吨，周环比下降 0.13 万吨。整体来看，焦煤基本面并无明显改善，甚至短期内产区供 应有所回升，本轮期货上行主要是由消息面驱动，后续 7 月国内还将召开政治局会议，市场多 空博弈加剧，预计焦煤主力合约暂维持震荡运行。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） | ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2510 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA60 一线支撑 | 市场情绪趋弱，钢价震荡回落 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 7 月 8 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 观点参考 公司地址：浙江省杭州市求是路 8 号公元大厦南裙 1-5 楼。 咨询热线：400 618 1199 | | 获 取 | 每 日 | 期 货 观 点 | 推 送 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 服 务 国 家 | ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 7 月 8 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线支撑 | 供需格局走弱，矿价偏弱震荡 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需两端均有所走弱，淡季钢厂临检增多，矿石终端消耗开始回落，但依旧是年内高位， 给予矿价支撑。与此同时，港口到货迎来回升，但矿商发运则是持续大幅减量，财年末结束后海外矿 石供应明显收缩，相应的内矿生产趋稳，矿石供应有所收缩，关注后续降幅情况。目前来看，"豁免 期"结束后关 ...

姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 黑色金属 | 日报 2025 年 7 月 7 日 煤焦日报 专业研究·创造价值 多空博弈加剧，煤焦震荡运行 核心观点 焦炭：7 月 7 日，焦炭主力合约震荡下跌，录得 0.94%的跌幅，尾盘报收 于 1422.5 元/吨。近期市场逻辑再次由基本面博弈转向预期博弈。7 月 1 日，中央财经委员会第六次会议提到要整治"内卷式竞争"，并引导落后 产能有序退出。目前，国内焦煤属于供应过剩品种，焦炭属于产能过剩品 种，均有被该政策影响的可能，不过焦化行业近几年刚完成产能升级，淘 汰 4.3 米及以下焦炉，因此本轮政策对焦炭直接影响可能相对有限 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 有色金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 核心观点 铜：宏观氛围冷却，铜价冲高回落，持续关注美国关税政策 上周铜价冲高回落，上半周内外宏观利好推动下，主力期价一度 逼近 8.1 万关口。海外降息预期升温，美元指数持续下挫；国内"反 内卷"政策预期升温，供应收缩预期上升。下半周宏观氛围冷却，美 降息预期下降叠加关税担忧上升，导致市场风险偏好回落，铜价高位 回落，多头了结意愿上升。产业层面，供应端，低加工费下多数冶炼 厂已处于亏损状态，叠加"反内卷"政策预期，预计电解铜产量将持 续下降。需求端，整体国内政策刺激下，需求强劲，但进入需求淡 季，叠加铜价上涨至 8 万 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the gold price rebounded after hitting a low. New York gold returned to the $3350 mark, and Shanghai gold rose above 775 yuan. The expectation of US tariffs and interest rate cuts led to a continuous decline in the US dollar index, pushing up the gold price. However, the better - than - expected US non - farm payrolls data reduced the expectation of Fed rate cuts, and the probability of three rate cuts this year decreased significantly, putting pressure on the gold price. The gold price is expected to remain under pressure. [3][29] - In the medium to long term, since the relaxation of US tariff policies, market risk appetite has increased, and the gold price has declined significantly. Technically, the 60 - day moving average can be used as a reference for long - term upward movement. After breaking below it, the willingness of long - position holders to close their positions may increase. The gold price is expected to maintain a weak trend, and the gold - silver ratio may continue to weaken. [3][29] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Weekly Trend**: The report mentions the linkage between the US dollar index and gold price but does not elaborate on the specific weekly trend [7]. - **Indicator Changes**: From June 27th to July 3rd, COMEX gold increased by 1.52%, COMEX silver by 2.42%, SHFE gold主力 by 1.94%, and SHFE silver主力 by 1.73%. The US dollar index decreased by 0.15%, and the US dollar against the offshore RMB decreased by 0.04%. The 10 - year US Treasury real yield increased by 0.02, the S&P 500 increased by 1.72%, and the US crude oil continuous increased by 3.24%. The COMEX gold - silver ratio decreased by 0.88%, and the SHFE gold - silver ratio increased by 0.21%. SPDR gold ETF decreased by 7.16, and iShare gold ETF increased by 0.32 [8]. 3.2 Non - farm Payrolls Higher than Expected, Gold Price Under Pressure - In the first half of the week, the expectation of tariffs and interest rate cuts led to a continuous decline in the US dollar index, and the gold price oscillated upwards. In the second half of the week, the better - than - expected non - farm payrolls data supported the Fed to maintain high interest rates, the US dollar index rebounded, and the gold price was under pressure. The high market risk preference last week, with the non - farm payrolls data having little impact on it, also put pressure on the gold price as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reached new highs [10][13]. 3.3 Other Indicator Tracking - Since late May, the net long non - commercial positions on COMEX have continued to rise. As of June 24th, compared with the previous week, long positions decreased by 4,509 contracts, short positions increased by 1,135 contracts, and net long positions decreased by 5,644 contracts. This indicator is more sensitive to the price trend of precious metals than gold ETFs but has a lower update frequency and poor timeliness [16]. - Since late May, gold ETFs have started to climb. In early June, silver prices rose significantly, and the corresponding ETFs increased their positions significantly, with both price and volume rising. After silver broke through the high in May 2024, market attention increased rapidly, and it is expected to remain strong [18]. - Since late April, the gold price has risen and then fallen, and the gold - silver ratio has also declined from a high level. Silver has benefited from its precious metal attribute and short - term catch - up growth. After breaking through the one - year oscillation high, short - term market attention has increased, and it has strong upward momentum. The gold - silver ratio is expected to continue to be weak [22]. - Since late June, the yield spread has continued to strengthen, mainly due to the significant decline in the near - end yield caused by expected interest rate cuts. Usually, the near - end US Treasury yield depends on the benchmark interest rate, while the long - end is more related to long - term economic conditions [24]. 3.4 Conclusion The conclusion is consistent with the core viewpoints, emphasizing that the gold price is expected to remain under pressure in the short term and maintain a weak trend in the medium to long term, while the gold - silver ratio may continue to weaken [29].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2025 年 7 月 7 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 市场情绪趋弱，钢矿高位震荡 核心观点 螺纹钢：主力期价震荡下行，录得 0.68%日跌幅，量仓收缩。现阶段， 政策利好预期驱动钢价震荡走高，但螺纹钢基本面延续季节性弱势，上 行驱动不强，相对利好则是低库存格局未变，多空因素博弈下钢价维持 震荡运行态势，关注需求表现情况。 热轧卷板：主力期价高位震荡，录得 0.62%日跌幅，量缩仓增。目前来 看，热卷供需两端平稳运行为主，基本面并未好转，库存持续累库，但 政策利好预期再度发酵，乐观情绪支撑下热卷价格短期维持偏强运行态 势，谨防交易逻辑切换至产业端。 铁矿石：主力期价震荡回落，录得 0.68%日跌幅，量仓收缩。现阶 段，政策利好预期再现，乐观情绪发酵，支撑矿价震荡上行，但矿石供 需格局在走弱，上行驱动不强，后续走势谨慎乐观，关注成材表现情 况。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 有色金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 有色金属 | 日报 2025 年 7 月 7 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 有色普跌 核心观点 沪铜 今日沪铜继续减仓下行，主力期价逼近 7.9 万关口。宏观层面， 商品市场氛围自上周五转冷，有色和黑色普跌。产业层面，随着铜 价上行，下游观望意愿上升，本周一电解铜社库上升明显。短期宏 观冷却，产业采购意愿下降，多头持续了结，关注 7.9 万一线支撑。 沪铝 今日沪铝减仓下行明显，主力期价下挫至 2.04 万一线。宏观层 面，商品市场氛围自上周五转冷，有色和黑色普跌。产业层面，下游 进入淡季叠加畏高情绪，Mystee ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoint - The report presents the arbitrage data of various futures varieties on July 7, 2025, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, covering aspects such as basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - variety spreads [1] Summary by Directory 1. Power Coal - **Basis Data**: From June 30 to July 4, 2025, the basis of power coal was - 180.4 yuan/ton on June 30, - 180.4 yuan/ton from July 1 - 3, and - 178.4 yuan/ton on July 4. The spreads of 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month were all 0.0 [2] 2. Energy Chemicals (1) Energy Commodities - **Crude Oil**: The basis data is presented in a chart, showing the relationship between the basis, spot price of Chinese Shengli crude oil, and the futures closing price of INE crude oil [6] - **Fuel Oil**: The basis data is presented in a chart, showing the relationship between the basis, FOB Singapore fuel oil spot price, and the futures closing price of fuel oil [7] - **Crude Oil/Asphalt Ratio**: On July 4, 2025, the ratio was 0.1407; on July 3, it was 0.1393; on July 2, it was 0.1411; on July 1, it was 0.1395; on June 30, it was 0.1394 [9] (2) Chemical Commodities - **Basis Data**: For various chemicals such as natural rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PP, etc., the basis data from June 30 to July 4, 2025, is provided. For example, the basis of natural rubber was - 35 yuan/ton on June 30, - 145 yuan/ton on July 1, - 125 yuan/ton on July 2, - 65 yuan/ton on July 3, and 45 yuan/ton on July 4 [10] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month for various chemicals are given. For example, for natural rubber, the 5 - 1 month spread was 70 yuan/ton, the 9 - 1 month spread was - 860 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 5 month spread was - 930 yuan/ton [10] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spreads such as LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3*methanol from June 30 to July 4, 2025, are provided. For example, the LLDPE - PVC spread was 2362 yuan/ton on June 30 and 2389 yuan/ton on July 4 [10] 3. Black Metals - **Basis Data**: From June 30 to July 4, 2025, the basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal is presented. For example, the basis of rebar was 143 yuan/ton on June 30, 97 yuan/ton on July 1, 105 yuan/ton on July 2, 94 yuan/ton on July 3, and 108 yuan/ton on July 4 [15] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of rebar (5 - 1 month, 10 - 1 month, 10 - 5 month) and those of iron ore, coke, and coking coal (5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month) are given. For example, the 5 - 1 month spread of rebar was 5 yuan/ton [15] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spreads such as rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot - rolled coil from June 30 to July 4, 2025, are provided. For example, the rebar/iron ore ratio was 4.19 on June 30 and July 4 [15] 4. Non - ferrous Metals (1) Domestic Market - **Basis Data**: From June 30 to July 4, 2025, the basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin in the domestic market is presented. For example, the basis of copper was 200 yuan/ton on June 30, - 240 yuan/ton on July 1, 570 yuan/ton on July 2, 580 yuan/ton on July 3, and 790 yuan/ton on July 4 [24] (2) London Market - **LME Data**: On July 4, 2025, the LME spreads of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin were 95.35, - 3.40, - 21.64, - 24.63, - 189.09, and 22.00 respectively. The Shanghai - London ratios were 8.07, 7.93, 8.13, 8.37, 7.95, and 7.94 respectively. The CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit - losses are also provided [31] 5. Agricultural Products - **Basis Data**: From June 30 to July 4, 2025, the basis data of soybeans (No.1 and No.2), soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, etc. is presented. For example, the basis of soybean No.1 was - 61 yuan/ton on June 30 and July 3, - 71 yuan/ton on July 2, - 47 yuan/ton on July 1, and - 31 yuan/ton on July 4 [40] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of various agricultural products (5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month) are given. For example, the 5 - 1 month spread of soybean No.1 was 24 yuan/ton [40] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spreads such as soybean No.1/corn, soybean No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, etc. from June 30 to July 4, 2025, are provided. For example, the soybean No.1/corn ratio was 1.75 on July 3 and July 4 [40] 6. Stock Index Futures - **Basis Data**: From June 30 to July 4, 2025, the basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures is presented. For example, the basis of CSI 300 was 50.28 on June 30, 56.76 on July 1, 49.48 on July 2, 50.07 on July 3, and 46.20 on July 4 [48] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 (next - month - current - month, current - quarter - current - month, next - quarter - current - month, etc.) are given. For example, the next - month - current - month spread of CSI 300 was - 19.4 [48]

1. Macro Data Overview - GDP in Q1 2025 grew at a constant - price quarterly - on - quarterly rate of 5.4%, the same as the previous quarter and slightly higher than the same period last year [1] - In June 2025, the Manufacturing PMI was 49.7%, up from 49.5% in the previous month and the same as the same period last year; the Non - manufacturing PMI: Business Activity was 50.5%, up from 50.3% in the previous month and the same as the same period last year [1] - In May 2025, various financial and economic indicators showed different trends, such as changes in social financing scale, M0, M1, M2, financial institution RMB loans, CPI, PPI, fixed - asset investment, retail sales of consumer goods, export and import values [1] 2. Commodity Investment Reference Comprehensive - The CSRC approved the registration of propylene futures and options on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange [2] - In June, the national futures market volume was 740 million lots, with a turnover of 52.79 trillion yuan, up 28.91% and 17.25% year - on - year respectively. From January to June, the cumulative volume was 40.76 billion lots, and the cumulative turnover was 339.73 trillion yuan, up 17.82% and 20.68% year - on - year respectively [2] - There were reports of the US resuming exports of EDA software, ethane, aircraft engines and other products to China. After the China - US economic and trade talks in London, both sides are implementing the consensus of the leaders' call on June 5th [2][14] - Experts believe that in June, China's economic growth momentum remained stable, with CPI expected to rise slightly year - on - year and PPI likely to remain at a low level [2][17] - In June, the China Commodity Price Index was 110.8 points, up 0.5% month - on - month, indicating a stable and improving commodity market [3] - US Treasury Secretary Besent said that the trade negotiations were at a stalemate, with busy days ahead. If no agreement was reached by August 1st, tariffs would return to the April level [3][21] Metals - Precious metals were the most active in the futures market in the past six months. Gold futures' turnover in the first half of 2025 exceeded that of the whole of last year, up 149% year - on - year. Gold options' trading volume soared from 28.64 billion yuan in the first half of last year to 101.787 billion yuan this year, up 252.64% year - on - year [5] - India re - classified the import of colloidal precious metals and their compounds from "free" to "restricted", causing disruptions in the electronics manufacturing supply chain [5] Coal, Coke, Steel and Minerals - In the first five months of 2025, China's steel industry was stable, with a 5.2% year - on - year increase in steel production. Industrial steel demand, especially in the automotive and home - appliance manufacturing sectors, increased significantly [6] - Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period from three years to one year to improve industry governance and control coal and ore supply [6] - In late June, the price of coke dropped 4.36% month - on - month to 1,096.4 yuan/ton, hitting a record low; the price of rebar dropped 0.95% month - on - month to 3,080.7 yuan/ton, also hitting a record low [6] Energy and Chemicals - High - temperature weather in many parts of China led to a rapid increase in power consumption. On July 4th, the national maximum power load reached 1.465 billion kilowatts, up about 200 million kilowatts from the end of June and nearly 150 million kilowatts from the same period last year [6] - OPEC+ will increase production by 548,000 barrels per day next month, exceeding expectations, as it tries to regain market share during the summer [7] - Malaysia's national oil company will drill three oil wells in Suriname's offshore Block 52 [8] - Saudi Arabia raised the prices of its main crude grades for Asian buyers next month, showing confidence in the market [8] - Qatar set the shipping price of August marine crude oil at a premium of $1.40 per barrel over the Oman/Dubai average, and the price of land - based crude oil at a premium of $1.30 per barrel [8] - Saudi set the price of Arabian Light crude oil for the US in August at a premium of $3.90 per barrel over the Argus Sour Crude Index and for Northwest Europe at a premium of $4.65 per barrel over ICE Brent [8] - Goldman Sachs predicts that OPEC+ will further increase oil supply in September [9] Agricultural Products - As of now, the cumulative purchase of wheat in China has exceeded 50 million tons. The National Food and Strategic Reserves Administration expects the purchase of new - season summer grain to be about 100 million tons, with wheat accounting for over 85 million tons [10] - In the past month, the prices in the white - feather broiler industry chain have dropped significantly. At the beginning of July, the price of live chickens fell below 3 yuan for the second time this year, and the price of chicks dropped by more than half [10] - In late June, the price of live pigs rose 2.82% month - on - month to 14.6 yuan/kg [11] - In late June, the price of corn rose 1.33% month - on - month to 2,370.1 yuan/ton, hitting a new high since mid - July 2024 [12] 3. Financial News Compilation Open Market - This week, 652.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature in the central bank's open market. Last week, the central bank conducted 652.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 1375.3 billion yuan from the open market [13] - On July 4th, the central bank conducted 34 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate. With 525.9 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, the net withdrawal was 491.9 billion yuan [13] Key News - US President Trump said on July 4th that the US government would start sending letters to trade partners to set new unilateral tariff rates, which would likely take effect on August 1st [14] - The EU accepted price commitments from 34 Chinese enterprises in the anti - dumping case of imported brandy, and these enterprises will not be subject to anti - dumping duties if they meet the commitment conditions [14] - The technical part of the China - EU electric vehicle negotiations is almost completed, and China will impose anti - dumping duties on imported brandy from the EU starting July 5th for a period of 5 years [15] - Chinese Premier Li Qiang attended the 17th BRICS Leaders' Summit and proposed to establish a China - BRICS New Quality Productivity Research Center and a "Golden Heron" Excellence Scholarship [15] - Chinese Finance Minister Lan Fuan attended the 2025 BRICS Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors' Meeting, expressing China's willingness to deepen BRICS financial cooperation. The New Development Bank of BRICS approved Colombia and Uzbekistan as new members [16] - The Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development's research team called on local governments to use real - estate regulation policies autonomously to stabilize the real - estate market [16] - The market expects that new RMB loans and social financing in June will increase month - on - month [16] - Local governments are issuing new special bonds to pay off overdue accounts to enterprises. Qinghai plans to issue about 11.7 billion yuan of local government bonds in July, with 1.42 billion yuan for debt repayment [18] - Qilu Bank's convertible bonds were triggered for mandatory redemption [18] - Many local state - owned enterprises and financial institutions are taking measures to prevent and resolve debt risks, such as reforming financing platforms, reducing high - cost non - standard debts, etc. [18][19] - Goldman Sachs significantly lowered its forecast for US Treasury yields, expecting the 2 - year and 10 - year yields to drop to 3.45% and 4.20% by the end of the year respectively [20] - In the euro - zone bond market, the yield of French 5 - year Treasury bonds exceeded that of Italian bonds for the first time since 2005 [20] - Japan's International Cooperation Agency will issue "Africa・TICAD Bonds" in August, with a total issuance of about 23 billion yen [20] - There are various bond - related events, including debt restructuring, shareholding changes, bond redemptions, and credit rating changes [22][23] Bond Market Summary - In the bond market, the yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market were generally stable with a slight decline, and Treasury bond futures mostly rose. The money market was loose, and money prices continued to fall [24] - In the exchange - traded bond market, some bonds rose while others fell. The Wande Real - Estate Bond 30 Index rose 0.05%, and the Wande High - Yield Urban Investment Bond Index was flat [24] - The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 0.15% to 447.46 points, with a trading volume of 75.05 billion yuan. The Wande Convertible Bond Equal - Weighted Index fell 0.25% to 212.72 points [25] - On July 4th, most money - market interest rates declined, and Shibor short - term rates also fell across the board [26][27] - The weighted winning yields of 7 - year and 10 - year Treasury bonds issued by the Ministry of Finance were 1.5302% and 1.6188% respectively, and the winning rate of the 2 - year fixed - rate bond "25 Jinchu Qingfa 02" issued by the Import - Export Bank of China was 1.26% [27] - Inter - bank and bank - to - bank repurchase fixed - rate quotes mostly fell, and European bond yields showed mixed trends [27][28] Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB closed at 7.1652 against the US dollar at 16:30, down 41 basis points from the previous trading day. The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was 7.1535, down 12 basis points from the previous trading day [29] - In late New York trading, the US dollar index fell 0.13% to 96.99, and most non - US currencies showed different trends [29] Research Report Highlights - Shenwan Hongyuan's fixed - income research team believes that the re - evaluation of banks is not over, and a dumbbell - shaped strategy of bank - like convertible bonds, small - cap growth convertible bonds, and low - price low - volatility convertible bonds is still effective [30][31] - Guosheng Securities' fixed - income research team believes that ultra - long - term credit bonds still have room for yield decline, but the operation requirements for trading desks are high [31] - CITIC Construction Investment's chief economist Huang Wentao believes that in the second half of the year, the external situation will ease, and Hong Kong stocks will become an important gateway for China's technological rise [31] - CITIC Securities believes that since the second quarter of 2025, the bond market has been in a stalemate, and medium - and long - term credit bonds have better cost - effectiveness [31] - CICC's fixed - income research team believes that the impact of the "Big and Beautiful" bill on the US deficit and economy this year is limited, and US Treasury yields may oscillate and decline [32] Today's Reminder - On July 7th, 182 bonds will be listed, 91 bonds will be issued, 77 bonds will require payment, and 349 bonds will pay principal and interest [33][34] 4. Stock Market News - Hong Kong's Financial Secretary Paul Chan Mo - po said that the Hong Kong stock market is booming in 2025, with about 200 IPO applications received so far, double the number at the beginning of the year. The Hong Kong Stock Exchange is promoting the listing of more theme - based ETFs [35] - CITIC Securities' strategy team believes that the current market environment is similar to that at the end of 2014, and the rotation of non - ferrous metals, AI hardware, innovative drugs, games, and the military industry may be the main theme during the interim - report season [35] - Many star private equity funds are positive about the stock market in the second half of 2025. For example,淡水泉 is optimistic about the technology sector, and Chongyang Investment focuses on innovation and competitive industries [36] - Last week, the A - share market had a good start in July, and the market is expected to show an oscillating upward trend. The interim - report season is approaching, and investors are focusing on fundamental - based investment opportunities [36][37] - As of July 6th, 54 A - share listed companies have disclosed their semi - annual performance forecasts, mostly showing good profitability. Many companies have attracted institutional research after disclosing their forecasts [37] - Since the establishment of the stock repurchase, increase, and re - loan program, 688 listed companies have received bank support, with a total loan limit of over 135.86 billion yuan. A - share companies are increasing dividend payments [37] - Well - known fund managers have adjusted their positions in the medical and military sectors in the first half of the year [38]