Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The iron ore 2605 contract is expected to be oscillating and slightly bullish in the short - term and intraday, and oscillating in the medium - term. Investors are advised to pay attention to the support level at the MA5 line. The core logic is that the iron ore price fluctuates at a high level under the game between bulls and bears [2]. - The iron ore supply is relatively high, and the improvement in demand is limited. The fundamentals of iron ore have not improved, and the price continues to face pressure. The relatively positive factors are the warm commodity sentiment and the pre - holiday restocking expectation. The iron ore price maintains a high - level oscillating trend, and attention should be paid to the steel mills' restocking situation [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety View Reference - The short - term view of iron ore 2605 is oscillating and slightly bullish, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the intraday view is oscillating and slightly bullish. The reference view is to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line, with the core logic of high - level oscillation of ore prices under the game between bulls and bears [2]. Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore is weakly stable. Port inventories are rising at a high level. Steel mills are continuously resuming production, and the terminal consumption of ore is rising from a low level, but the profit situation has not improved, and the off - season steel market cannot bear a large - scale increase in production, so the demand improvement space is limited. At the same time, the arrival of goods at domestic ports has increased, and there is room for further increase. Even if the shipments of miners and domestic ore production shrink, the supply pressure of ore remains. The ore fundamentals have not improved, and the price is under pressure. The positive factors are the warm commodity sentiment and the pre - holiday restocking expectation, resulting in a high - level oscillating trend of ore prices [3].

期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货橡胶早报-2026-01-09 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 利多情绪消化，沪胶震荡偏弱 | | 合成胶 | 2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 利多情绪消化，合成胶震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶（RU） 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：随着泰国和柬埔寨两国宣布停战，地缘风险因素弱化，东南亚橡胶供应回落预期消 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of methanol 2605 is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is weak. It is expected to run weakly [1][5] - The pre - holiday overseas supply "hard contraction" was the key factor supporting the upward movement of methanol prices. The supply in Iran, a major import source, is severely disrupted. The reduction of domestic port methanol inventory led to the recovery of port spot prices, strengthening the basis and boosting bullish sentiment. After the previous positive factors were digested, and with the high - level correction of domestic coal futures prices, methanol futures showed an oscillatory and weak trend on Thursday night and may maintain this pattern on Friday [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Methanol 2605 Analysis - Short - term: oscillatory [1] - Medium - term: oscillatory [1] - Intraday: weak [1] - View reference: weak operation [1] - Core logic: coal price decline leads to the oscillatory and weak trend of methanol [1] Methanol (MA) Price and Market Analysis - Intraday view: weak [5] - Medium - term view: oscillatory [5] - Reference view: weak operation [5] - Core logic: pre - holiday overseas supply contraction, supply disruption in Iran, inventory reduction at domestic ports, and then the digestion of positive factors and coal price correction [5]

期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2026 年 1 月 9 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2605 | 偏强 震荡 | 震荡 | 强势 | 偏强震荡 | 供应扰动支撑，焦煤低位反弹 | | 焦炭 | 2605 | 偏强 震荡 | 震荡 | 强势 | 偏强震荡 | 原料支撑显现，焦炭偏强运行 | 核心逻辑：现货市场方面，甘其毛都口岸蒙煤最新报价为 1110.0 元/吨，周环比下跌 0.9%。整 体来看，元旦过后，焦煤预计进入供需两增格局，短期基本面难言明显改善，但经济政策预 期、"反内卷"政策预期、下游冬储补库预期，以及春节煤矿减产预期等利好驱动渐显，带动 焦煤期货低位反弹。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 期货研究报告 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2026 年 1 月 9 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 参考观点：震荡偏弱 核心逻辑：美豆期价震荡回落，中国采购、巴西大豆丰产等因素继续影响美豆。下周一美农报告发布前， 资金避险情绪升温。国内油厂和贸易商挺价意愿明显，下游滚动拿货。短期关注进口大豆的拍卖消息对豆 类市场情绪的影响。随着加拿大总理将于下周访华的消息释放，中加贸易成为关注焦点，市场对远期菜籽 供应改善的预期施压菜粕和菜油期价，对临池豆粕期价形成拖累。短期豆粕震荡偏弱运行。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前一日夜盘 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2026 年 1 月 9 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 低位震荡 | 现实格局偏弱，钢价低位震荡 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 螺纹钢供需格局有所走弱，库存拐点已现，建筑钢厂复产，螺纹供应延续回升且仍有增量空 间，低供应格局在变，压力开始增加。与此同时，螺纹钢需求表现偏弱，高频需求指标继续位于近 年来同期低位，且下游行业未改善，后续仍将季节性走弱，继而拖累钢价。总之，得益于商品偏暖 情绪，螺纹钢价格低位 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货股指期货早报（2026 年 1 月 9 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 震荡偏强 | 政策利好预期与资金净流入趋势 不变 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 期货研究报告 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏强 核心逻辑：昨日各股指均延续震荡盘整。沪深京三市成交额 28262 亿元，较上日缩量 553 亿元。股 指大幅上行之后，技术面上需要一定时间震荡整 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The TL2603 is expected to experience short - term and medium - term oscillations, with an intraday weakening trend, overall in a state of oscillatory consolidation. Short - term probability of interest rate cuts is low, but there are still long - term expectations of monetary easing [1]. - For financial futures index sectors such as TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the overall reference view is oscillatory consolidation. In the short term, due to strong macro - data resilience and bond supply pressure, bond yields have risen and bond futures prices have fallen. In the long run, due to insufficient domestic demand, there is room for policy rate cuts, which will support bond futures prices. Overall, short - term oscillatory consolidation is expected [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Index Sector - **Time Cycle Definition**: Short - term refers to within one week, and medium - term refers to two weeks to one month. For intraday, a decline greater than 1% is considered weak, a decline of 0 - 1% is considered weakly - trending, a rise of 0 - 1% is considered strongly - trending, and a rise greater than 1% is considered strong. The concepts of strongly - trending/weakly - trending only apply to intraday views [1][3][4]. - **TL2603**: Short - term: oscillatory; Medium - term: oscillatory; Intraday: weakly - trending. The view is oscillatory consolidation, with the core logic being a low short - term probability of interest rate cuts and long - term expectations of monetary easing [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Index Sector - **Varieties**: TL, T, TF, TS. Intraday view: weakly - trending; Medium - term view: oscillatory; Reference view: oscillatory consolidation. The core logic is that bond futures rebounded slightly yesterday. In the short term, strong macro - data resilience reduces the urgency of monetary easing, and the supply pressure of bond issuance has led to a significant rise in bond yields and a decline in bond futures prices since the end of December. In the long run, the problem of insufficient domestic demand requires a relatively loose monetary and credit environment, so there is still room for policy rate cuts, and bond futures prices have support. Overall, short - term oscillatory consolidation is expected [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global economy is facing various uncertainties and changes, with different trends in different sectors. The U.S. economy shows signs of a slowdown in growth momentum, while China's economy is expected to continue to recover, with consumption as the main driving force. The bond market is affected by policy and economic factors, and long - term bond yields may show a "first down then up" trend. The commodity market also has different performances in different varieties, such as the recovery of the lithium - battery industry and the rise of the black - series commodities [27]. 3. Summary by Directory Macro Data Overview - In Q3 2025, the U.S. real GDP had a quarterly - on - quarterly annualized rate of 4.3%, exceeding market expectations. The main reasons were the better - than - expected performance of household consumption and net exports. However, the resilience of business investment showed signs of weakening. Considering the impact of the government shutdown on Q4 GDP and the slowdown of the overall economic growth momentum, Q4 real GDP growth is expected to decline compared to Q3 [27]. - In China, in November 2025, indicators such as CPI, PPI, and social financing scale showed different trends. For example, CPI increased year - on - year, while PPI decreased year - on - year. The growth rate of fixed - asset investment decreased, and the growth rate of social consumption showed a certain degree of stability [1]. Commodity Investment Reference Comprehensive - China's export control of dual - use items to Japan aims to stop Japan's "remilitarization" and nuclear - possession attempts, and civilian trade will not be affected [2]. - On January 8, 2026, 39 domestic commodity varieties had positive basis, and 30 had negative basis. Among them, spot prices of nickel, tin, and cotton had the largest premiums over futures, while butadiene rubber, apples, and strong wheat had the largest discounts [2]. - Guangzhou Futures Exchange imposed a 3 - month trading restriction on 10 clients suspected of violating regulations in lithium carbonate futures trading [2]. - Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange adjusted the trading margin and daily price limit of the thermal coal 2701 contract and set a trading limit for non - futures company members and clients [3]. - In December 2025, the national futures market volume and turnover increased significantly year - on - year. The annual cumulative volume and turnover also showed growth [3]. - CME Group raised the performance margin of precious metals and lowered that of most natural gas contracts [3]. - The European natural gas and power trading market is about to reform, and ICE plans to extend the trading hours of relevant contracts to 22 hours a day [4]. Metals - After two years of adjustment, the lithium - battery industry is entering a new development stage, with a cyclical recovery covering the entire chain from lithium mines to materials to batteries [5]. - Gold investment remains popular. Industrial and Commercial Bank of China will raise the risk access level of personal gold accumulation business from January 12. Gold has become the world's largest reserve asset for the first time in 30 years, surpassing U.S. Treasury bonds [5]. - In 2025, global gold ETFs had a record - high annual capital inflow, with North America leading the way. The total asset management scale and holdings of gold ETFs more than doubled [5]. - As of January 7, 2026, the inventory of zinc, nickel, and tin in the London Metal Exchange increased, while that of lead, copper, and aluminum decreased [6]. - The position of the world's largest silver ETF, iShares Silver Trust, increased, and the silver inventory in the London vault also increased in December 2025 [7]. Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - At the beginning of 2026, the black - series commodities in the commodity market rose, with the prices of coking coal and coke futures rising significantly. The spot market procurement sentiment also increased [8]. - Indonesia may approve a coal production quota of about 600 million tons in 2026 and adjust its nickel quota according to industry demand. The domestic nickel ore demand of Indonesian smelters is expected to increase [8]. - The U.S. government is considering investing in Amaroq's key mineral mining project in Greenland [8]. Energy and Chemicals - China National Petroleum Corporation and China National Aviation Fuel Group will be restructured, aiming to reduce costs and promote high - quality development of the industrial chain [9]. - The market regulatory authority has interviewed the China Photovoltaic Industry Association and six polysilicon leading enterprises to prevent monopoly behavior [9]. - The U.S. is strengthening sanctions against Russia, and China's normal economic and trade energy cooperation with Russia should not be interfered with [9]. - The U.S. has different policies towards Venezuela, including supervision, partial sanctions lifting, and aiming to increase Venezuela's oil production [10][11]. - As of January 2, 2025, the U.S. weekly natural gas inventory decreased more than expected [11]. Agricultural Products - Due to the decline in export sales reported by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, the trends of grain futures were different. Corn and soybean net exports decreased, while wheat exports increased [12]. - Brazil is expected to export 2.4 million tons of soybeans in January 2026, higher than the same period last year [12]. - The market is bearish on the future price of Japanese rice, with the 3 - month expected index reaching the lowest level since September 2021 [12]. Financial News Compilation Open Market - On January 8, 2026, the central bank conducted 9.9 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 9.9 billion yuan [13]. Important News - The Political Bureau Standing Committee of the CPC Central Committee emphasized the need to achieve a good start in 2026 and strengthen Party building [14]. - The Ministry of Commerce will assess and investigate Meta's acquisition of the artificial intelligence platform Manus and explained the export control of dual - use items to Japan [14]. - The deputy minister of the Ministry of Finance welcomed the London Stock Exchange Group to deepen cooperation with China [14]. - In December 2025, China's consumer market grew steadily, and high - value product exports continued to accelerate. During the New Year's Day holiday in 2026, consumer spending increased significantly [15]. - In the first quarter of 2026, local governments plan to issue more than 2 trillion yuan of local bonds, mainly for new infrastructure and other projects to boost investment and the economy [16]. - The market regulatory authority has interviewed the China Photovoltaic Industry Association and six polysilicon leading enterprises to prevent monopoly behavior [17]. - The four - department joint meeting pointed out the need to regulate the power and energy - storage battery industry to prevent over - capacity [17]. - In 2025, the trading volume and net financing of debt financing instruments supported by the Dealer Association exceeded 60% of the corporate credit bond market, and the outstanding scale increased by 10% year - on - year [17]. - In 2025, 23 insurance companies issued bonds worth 104.2 billion yuan, mainly due to capital replenishment needs and lower borrowing costs [17]. - JD Group is considering issuing dim - sum bonds with a potential scale of about 10 billion yuan [18]. - Yu Liang resigned from Vanke after 35 years [18]. - Gold has become the world's largest reserve asset, surpassing U.S. Treasury bonds [18]. - The U.S. Congress passed three government appropriation bills, moving forward to avoid a government shutdown [19]. - The U.S. Treasury Secretary and Fed officials have different views on interest - rate trends, with expectations of interest - rate cuts in 2026 [19]. - Many bond - related events occurred, including the resumption of trading of some bonds, debt defaults, and credit - rating adjustments [20]. Bond Market Summary - The inter - bank bond market in China has improved, with bond yields generally falling, and bond futures rising. The capital market is relatively loose [21]. - The exchange - traded bond market had different performances for different bonds, with Vanke bonds generally rising [22]. - The convertible bond market also had different trends, with some bonds rising and some falling [22]. - Most money - market interest rates rose, and different bond - issuing institutions had different bid - winning yields and multiples [23][24]. - European and U.S. bond yields showed different trends, with some rising and some falling [25]. Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the U.S. dollar rose, while the central parity rate of the RMB against the U.S. dollar depreciated slightly. The U.S. dollar index rose, and most non - U.S. currencies fell [26]. Research Report Highlights - CITIC Securities expects the U.S. real GDP growth in Q4 2025 to decline compared to Q3, and in China, consumption will continue to recover moderately, and long - term bond yields may show a "first down then up" trend [27]. - Yangtze River Fixed Income believes that the bond market is constrained by the "impossible triangle," and the bond market may have a phased repair opportunity after the supply pressure of ultra - long bonds is digested, possibly in the second half of Q1 2026 [27]. Stock Market News - The A - share market had a narrow - range consolidation, with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly falling but still having 15 consecutive positive lines. The Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index fell, while the Wind All - A Index rose. The trading volume was 2.83 trillion yuan. Some themes such as commercial space, brain - computer interface, and nuclear fusion were active, while the large - finance and non - ferrous metals sectors were weak [30]. - The Hong Kong stock market declined, with the Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng Tech Index, and Hang Seng China Enterprises Index all falling. The "world's first large - model stock" Zhipu rose more than 13% on its first - listing day. Southbound funds had a net selling of 4.9 billion Hong Kong dollars, while Xiaomi Group received a net purchase [30]. - As of January 7, 2026, the margin trading balance in the A - share market exceeded 2.6 trillion yuan for the first time, reaching a record high [31].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report presents the daily arbitrage data of various futures varieties on January 9, 2026, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, covering aspects such as basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - variety spreads. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Power Coal - Basis data from December 31, 2025, to January 8, 2026, shows that the basis was negative, ranging from - 123.4 yuan/ton on December 31, 2025, to - 104.4 yuan/ton on January 8, 2026. The spreads of 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 1 - month, and 9 - month minus 5 - month were all 0.0 [1][2] 3.2 Energy Chemicals - **Energy Commodities**: Basis data for fuel oil, INE crude oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt from December 31, 2025, to January 8, 2026, are presented, with values varying over different dates. For example, the basis of INE crude oil was 48.88 yuan/ton on January 8, 2026 [6] - **Chemical Commodities**: - Basis data for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, and PP from December 31, 2025, to January 8, 2026, shows different values. For instance, the basis of rubber was - 270 yuan/ton on January 8, 2026 [8] - Inter - period spreads for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are provided. For example, the 5 - month minus 1 - month spread of LLDPE was 223 yuan/ton [10] - Inter - variety spreads for LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3*methanol from December 31, 2025, to January 8, 2026, are given. For example, the LLDPE - PVC spread was 1730 yuan/ton on January 8, 2026 [10] 3.3 Black Metals - Basis data for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from December 31, 2025, to January 8, 2026, are presented. For example, the basis of rebar was 172.0 yuan/ton on January 8, 2026 [20] - Inter - period spreads for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are provided. For example, the 5 - month minus 1 - month spread of rebar was 55.0 yuan/ton [19] - Inter - variety spreads for the ratio of rebar to iron ore, rebar to coke, coke to coking coal, and rebar minus hot - rolled coil from December 31, 2025, to January 8, 2026, are given. For example, the ratio of rebar to iron ore was 3.87 on January 8, 2026 [19] 3.4 Non - Ferrous Metals - **Domestic Market**: Basis data for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from December 31, 2025, to January 8, 2026, are presented. For example, the basis of copper was 600 yuan/ton on January 8, 2026 [29] - **London Market**: Data on LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on January 8, 2026, are provided. For example, the LME spread of copper was 16.75 [32] 3.5 Agricultural Products - Basis data for soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn from December 31, 2025, to January 8, 2026, are presented. For example, the basis of soybeans No.1 was - 307 yuan/ton on January 8, 2026 [39] - Inter - period spreads for soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, corn, sugar, and cotton are provided. For example, the 5 - month minus 1 - month spread of soybeans No.1 was 64 yuan/ton [39] - Inter - variety spreads for the ratio of soybeans No.1 to corn, soybeans No.2 to corn, soybean oil to soybean meal, soybean meal minus rapeseed meal, soybean oil minus palm oil, rapeseed oil minus soybean oil, and corn minus corn starch from December 31, 2025, to January 8, 2026, are given. For example, the ratio of soybeans No.1 to corn was 1.95 on January 8, 2026 [38] 3.6 Stock Index Futures - Basis data for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from December 31, 2025, to January 8, 2026, are presented. For example, the basis of CSI 300 was 19.25 on January 8, 2026 [50] - Inter - period spreads for the next - month minus the current - month and the next - quarter minus the current - quarter of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are provided. For example, the next - month minus the current - month spread of CSI 300 was - 12.4 [50]