期货研究报告 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2026 年 1 月 28 日） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 低位震荡 | 基本面表现偏弱，钢价低位震荡 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 公司地址：浙江省杭州市求是路 8 号公元大厦南裙 1-5 楼。 咨询热线：400 618 1199 获 取 每 日 期 货 观 点 推 送 扫码关注宝城期货官方微信·期货咨询尽在掌握 服 务 国 家 走 向 世 界 知行合一 专 业 敬 业 诚 信 至 上 合 规 经 营 ...

期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货橡胶早报-2026-01-28 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 偏多氛围支撑，沪胶震荡偏强 | | 合成胶 | 2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 偏多氛围支撑，合成胶震荡偏强 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶（RU） 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：目前国内云南和海南天胶产区已进入停割季，国产全乳胶供应压力显著下降，而东 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report Core View - The crude oil futures are expected to run strongly, with short - term and medium - term trends being oscillatory and the intraday trend being strong [1][5]. - Geopolitical risks are rising, which has led to a stable and rising trend in domestic and foreign crude oil futures prices on Tuesday night, and it is predicted that domestic crude oil futures will maintain an oscillatory and strong trend on Wednesday [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog Time - cycle Viewpoints - Short - term (within one week): The trend of crude oil 2603 is oscillatory [1]. - Medium - term (two weeks to one month): The trend of crude oil 2603 is oscillatory [1]. - Intraday: The trend of crude oil 2603 is strong, and the reference view is a strong run [1][5]. Core Logic - Recently, US President Trump has frequently released geopolitical risk signals, and Greenland and Canada may become the next targets for the US to seize and attack [5]. - As the US military aircraft carrier has reached the Middle East battlefield in the short term and Iran has issued tough statements, a new round of military conflict between the US and Iran may break out, threatening the crude oil transportation in the Middle East, and geopolitical risks have increased again [5]. - The geopolitical risk sentiment has overshadowed the weak supply - demand fundamentals of the oil market, boosting the stable and rising trend of domestic and foreign crude oil futures prices on Tuesday night [5].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 资讯早班车-2026-01-28 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026-01-19 | 2025/12 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 4.5 | 4.8 | 5.4 | | 2025-12-31 | 2025/12 | 制造业 PMI | % | 50.1 | 49.8 | 50.1 | | 2025-12-31 | 2025/12 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活动 | % | 50.2 | 50.0 | 52.2 | | 2026-01-15 | 2025/12 | 社会融资规模:当月值 | 亿元 | 22075 | 35299 | 28537 | | 2026-01-15 | 2025/12 | M0:同比 | % | 10.2 | 11.5 | 13.0 | | 2026-01-15 | 2025/12 | M1:同比 | % | 3.8 | 7.2 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report presents the daily arbitrage data of various futures varieties on January 28, 2026, including basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - variety spreads for different sectors such as power coal, energy and chemical, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures. 3. Summary by Directory Power Coal - Basis data for power coal from January 21 - 27, 2026 shows that the basis on January 21 was - 115 yuan/ton, and from January 22 - 27 it was - 116 yuan/ton [2]. Energy and Chemical - **Energy Commodities**: Basis and price ratio data for fuel oil, INE crude oil, and crude oil/asphalt from January 21 - 27, 2026 are provided. For example, on January 27, the basis of INE crude oil was - 11.28 yuan/ton [7]. - **Chemical Commodities**: - Basis data for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, and PP from January 21 - 27, 2026 are presented. For instance, on January 27, the basis of rubber was - 355 yuan/ton [9]. - Inter - period spreads for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are given. For example, the 5 - 1 month spread of rubber was - 600 yuan/ton [10]. - Inter - variety spreads for LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3*methanol from January 21 - 27, 2026 are shown. On January 27, the LLDPE - PVC spread was 1948 yuan/ton [10]. Black Metals - Basis data for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from January 21 - 27, 2026 are provided. For example, on January 27, the basis of rebar was 114.0 yuan/ton [20]. - Inter - period spreads for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are given. The 5 - 1 month spread of rebar was - 740 yuan/ton [19]. - Inter - variety spreads for rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot rolled coil from January 21 - 27, 2026 are presented. On January 27, the rebar/iron ore ratio was 3.97 [19]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Domestic Market**: Basis data for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from January 21 - 27, 2026 are provided. On January 27, the basis of copper was - 1180 yuan/ton [27]. - **London Market**: LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss data for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on January 27, 2026 are given. For example, the LME spread of copper was (93.80) [31]. Agricultural Products - Basis data for soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn from January 21 - 27, 2026 are provided. On January 27, the basis of soybeans No.1 was - 204 yuan/ton [35]. - Inter - period spreads for soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, corn, sugar, and cotton are given. The 5 - 1 month spread of soybeans No.1 was - 43 yuan/ton [35]. - Inter - variety spreads for soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, soybean meal - rapeseed meal, soybean oil - palm oil, rapeseed oil - soybean oil, and corn - corn starch from January 21 - 27, 2026 are presented. On January 27, the soybeans No.1/corn ratio was 1.90 [35]. Stock Index Futures - Basis data for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from January 21 - 27, 2026 are provided. On January 27, the basis of CSI 300 was - 12.41 [47]. - Inter - period spreads for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are given. The next - month - current - month spread of CSI 300 was - 44.6 [47].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2026 年 1 月 28 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡运行 | 产业矛盾累积，矿价承压运行 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 期货研究报告 公司地址：浙江省杭州市求是路 8 号公元大厦南裙 1-5 楼。 咨询热线：400 618 1199 获 取 每 日 期 货 观 点 推 送 扫码关注宝城期货官方微信·期货咨询尽在掌握 服 务 国 家 走 向 世 界 知行合一 专 业 敬 业 诚 信 至 上 合 规 经 营 严谨管 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货金融研究所 姓名：陈栋 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F0251793 投资咨询证号：Z0001617 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：chendong@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货 投资咨询资格证书，本人承诺 以勤勉的职业态度，独立、客 观地出具本报告。本报告清晰 准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或 间接接收到任何形式的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 11615 专业研究·创造价值 2026 年 1 月 27 日 橡胶甲醇原油 风险溢价减弱 能化震荡收低 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 7 期货研究报告 请务必阅读文末免责条款 请务必阅读文末免责条款部分 1 / 24 橡胶甲醇原油 | 日报 核心观点 橡胶：本周二国内沪胶期货 2605 合约呈现缩量减仓，震荡偏弱， 略微收低的走势，盘中期价重心小幅下移至 16200 元/吨一线运行。收 盘时期价略微收低 0.31%至 16205 元/吨。5-9 月差 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Views - The main contract price of rebar declined weakly with a daily decline of 0.79%, and both trading volume and open interest contracted. Currently, rebar production has significantly increased, supply has grown, while demand is weak, leading to the accumulation of fundamental contradictions. Steel prices are under pressure during the off - season. The relatively positive factor is the warm commodity sentiment. The subsequent trend will continue to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to inventory changes [5]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil fluctuated weakly with a daily decline of 0.60%, and both trading volume and open interest contracted. Currently, the supply of hot - rolled coil has declined, but inventory is high and the pressure remains. Demand resilience is weakening, and industrial contradictions are likely to accumulate, putting pressure on prices. The relatively positive factor is the decent speculative demand. It is expected that the trend will continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to demand performance [5]. - The main contract price of iron ore fluctuated weakly with a daily decline of 0.51%, trading volume decreased while open interest increased. Currently, the reduction in iron ore supply is limited, demand is weak, and combined with high inventory pressure, the fundamentals are weak. Iron ore prices are under pressure. The relatively positive factor is the warm commodity sentiment. It is expected that iron ore prices will maintain an oscillating trend, and attention should be paid to steel mills' restocking [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry Dynamics - In 2025, the China Development Bank issued over 200 billion yuan in railway loans, a year - on - year increase of 27.8%, and the railway loan balance exceeded 1 trillion yuan for the first time. By the end of 2025, the total operating mileage of high - speed rail projects supported by the bank exceeded 42,500 kilometers, accounting for over 85% of the "Eight Vertical and Eight Horizontal" high - speed rail network. In the future, it will continue to increase support for railway construction [7]. - According to the Tower Crane Rental Industry Prosperity Index (TPI) in December 2025, the utilization rate of tower crane days was 55.1%, and the utilization rate of maximum lifting moment was 56.8%, 2 and 1.5 percentage points lower than the previous month respectively. The rental price index was 496.52 points, 5.65 points lower than the previous month and 57.283 points lower than the same period last year [8]. - On January 23, 2026, the Australian Anti - Dumping Commission announced a new exporter review investigation of anti - dumping and counter - subsidy on aluminized zinc - coated steel sheets imported from the Chinese mainland at the request of a Chinese exporter. The investigation period is from January 1, 2025, to December 31, 2025, and the final ruling is expected to be submitted by April 15, 2026 [9]. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar, hot - rolled coil, and Tangshan billet all declined, while the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap remained unchanged. The spot prices of PB powder in Shandong ports increased, and the price of Tangshan iron concentrate remained unchanged. The freight rates from Australia and Brazil increased slightly, the SGX swap price decreased, and the iron ore price index declined [10]. Futures Market - The closing price of rebar futures was 3,126 yuan, a decline of 0.79%, with a trading volume of 673,796 lots and an open interest of 1,714,659 lots. - The closing price of hot - rolled coil futures was 3,289 yuan, a decline of 0.60%, with a trading volume of 288,700 lots and an open interest of 1,508,428 lots. - The closing price of iron ore futures was 788.0 yuan, a decline of 0.51%, with a trading volume of 211,744 lots and an open interest of 571,053 lots [12]. Related Charts - The section on related charts mainly presents various inventory and production - related charts of steel and iron ore, including steel inventory, iron ore inventory, and steel mill production conditions, showing the trends and seasonal characteristics of relevant data over multiple years [14][22][27]. 后市研判 - For rebar, supply pressure is increasing as production has risen, and demand is weak. The price is under pressure during the off - season but may be supported by warm commodity sentiment. It will continue to oscillate at a low level, and inventory changes should be monitored [34]. - For hot - rolled coil, both supply and demand have weakened. Inventory is high, and demand resilience is weakening. Although speculative demand is decent, the price is under pressure and will continue to oscillate. Attention should be paid to demand performance [34]. - For iron ore, the supply reduction is limited, demand is weak, and inventory is high. The price is under pressure but may be supported by warm commodity sentiment. It will maintain an oscillating trend, and steel mills' restocking should be monitored [35].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints - On January 27, the coke主力contract closed at 1,668 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 2.77%. The position of the主力 contract was 38,429 lots, a net increase of 1,859 lots from the previous trading day. The spot market prices of Rizhao Port's quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke were flat week - on - week, and Qingdao Port's prices rose 0.69% week - on - week. The coke fundamentals have not improved significantly, with stable supply and demand, and limited support from coking coal. The主力contract will maintain a low - level range for now [5][31] - On January 27, the coking coal主力contract closed at 1,116.5 points, with an intraday decline of 3.00%. The position of the主力 contract was 513,166 lots, a net increase of 20,760 lots from the previous trading day. The spot price of Mongolian coal at Ganqimaodu Port was flat week - on - week. Without direct policy support, weak fundamentals suppress the coking coal futures to run at a low level, but considering winter storage, the downside is limited and it may maintain a narrow - range oscillation [5][31] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry News - Jiangxi will implement 5,296 large - and medium - sized projects in 2026, with an expected investment of about 1.1 trillion yuan. It will also focus on new infrastructure projects such as 6G and computing power, and promote major projects like the Poyang Lake Water Conservancy Project [7] - On January 27, the coking coal price in Linfen Anze market remained stable, with the ex - factory price of low - sulfur main coking coal at 1,640 yuan/ton [8] 3.2 Spot Market | Variety | Current Price | Weekly Change | Monthly Change | Annual Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rizhao Port Quasi - first - grade Coke (Flat Price) | 1,470 yuan/ton | 0.00% | - 3.29% | - 13.02% | - 7.55% | | Qingdao Port Quasi - first - grade Coke (Out - of - warehouse Price) | 1,460 yuan/ton | 0.69% | 0.69% | - 9.88% | - 4.58% | | Ganqimaodu Port Mongolian Coking Coal | 1,240 yuan/ton | 0.00% | 9.73% | 5.08% | 7.83% | | Jingtang Port Australian Coking Coal | 1,590 yuan/ton | 2.58% | 5.30% | 6.71% | 6.71% | | Jingtang Port Shanxi Coking Coal | 1,780 yuan/ton | 0.00% | 4.71% | 16.34% | 19.46% | [9] 3.3 Futures Market | Futures | Active Contract | Closing Price | Change Rate | High | Low | Volume | Volume Difference | Position | Position Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke | | 1,668 yuan/ton | - 2.77% | 1,730 yuan/ton | 1,655 yuan/ton | 19,620 lots | 3,633 lots | 38,429 lots | 1,859 lots | | Coking Coal | | 1,116.5 points | - 3.00% | 1,162.5 points | 1,110 points | 832,838 lots | - 53,572 lots | 513,166 lots | 20,760 lots | [13] 3.4 Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts showing the inventory of coke and coking coal in different entities (such as independent coking plants, ports, and steel mills), as well as domestic steel mill production, Shanghai terminal wire and screw procurement volume, coal washing plant production, and coking plant operation status from 2021 - 2026 [14][15][16] 3.5 Market Outlook - The outlook for coke and coking coal futures is consistent with the core viewpoints, with coke maintaining a low - level range and coking coal expected to have limited downside and a narrow - range oscillation [31]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 碳酸锂 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 【期货市场】主力合约 LC2605.GFE 收盘价 179600 元/吨，较前日 上涨 13920 元/吨，近 10 个交易日整体呈现上升走势。 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 碳酸锂 | 日报 2026 年 1 月 27 日 碳酸锂日报 专业研究·创造价值 碳酸锂强势运行 摘要 【现货市场】碳酸锂现货价格为 172400 元/吨，较前日下跌 5.08%，近 10 个交易日整体呈现上升走势。 【基差分析】当前基差为-620 点，负基差（现货贴水），较前日走 弱 5300 点，近 10 个交易日基差整体走强。 【仓单情况】碳酸锂注册仓单量为 ...