投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货甲醇早报-2025-07-07 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 甲醇 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 供需结构偏弱，甲醇震荡偏弱 | 备注： 甲醇（MA） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：随着国内甲醇产能持续释放，内部供应压力有增无减。叠加海外船货不断到港，外部供 应预期逐渐增大，港口迎来累库周期，而下游需求则步入淡季，供需结构趋于宽松。在经历前期大 幅回调以后，利空情绪得到释放。近日国内高层会议定调，最核心的两个：治理低价无序竞争和推 动落后产能有序退出，新一轮供给侧改革可能到来提振国内商品期货。在供需结构偏弱的背景下， 上周五夜盘国内甲醇期货维持震荡偏弱的走势，期价略微收低 0.58%至 2401 元/吨。预计本周一国内 甲醇期货 2509 合约或维持震荡偏弱的走势。 < END > 1.有夜盘的品 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 晨会纪要 宝城期货橡胶早报-2025-07-07 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 供需结构偏弱，沪胶震荡偏弱 | | 合成胶 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 供需结构偏弱，合成胶震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶（RU） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 ------------------------------------------ ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of crude oil 2509 are oscillatory, oscillatory, and oscillatory and weak respectively, with an overall view of weak operation [1]. - Due to the Israeli air strikes on Lebanese Hezbollah, the geopolitical risk in the Middle East has emerged again. After a sharp decline, the confidence of oil market bulls has increased, and the geopolitical premium has rebounded. With the arrival of the peak oil - using season in the Northern Hemisphere, the demand factor for crude oil has come into play. Against the backdrop of the divergence between bulls and bears, the domestic crude oil futures 2509 contract maintained an oscillatory and weak trend in the night session last Friday, with the futures price slightly down 0.70% to 497.6 yuan/barrel. It is expected that the domestic crude oil futures 2508 contract may maintain an oscillatory and weak trend on Monday [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Time Cycle Explanation - Short - term refers to within one week, and medium - term refers to two weeks to one month [1]. - For varieties with night trading, the starting price is the night - trading closing price; for those without night trading, it is the previous day's closing price. The ending price is the closing price of the day's daytime session to calculate the price change [2]. - A decline greater than 1% is considered a fall, a decline of 0 - 1% is oscillatory and weak, an increase of 0 - 1% is oscillatory and strong, and an increase greater than 1% is a rise [3]. - The concepts of oscillatory and strong/weak only apply to the intraday view, not to the short - term and medium - term views [4]. 3.2 Crude Oil (SC) Market Analysis - The intraday view is oscillatory and weak, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is weak operation [5]. - The core logic is the combination of geopolitical risks, the rebound of bullish confidence, and the peak oil - using season, leading to the oscillatory and weak trend of the crude oil futures contract [5].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 7 月 7 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡思路 | 多空交织，焦煤震荡运行 | | 焦炭 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡思路 | 现实与预期博弈，焦炭震荡调整 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡思路 核心逻辑：截至 7 月 4 日当周，全国 523 家炼焦煤矿 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货股指期货早报（2025 年 7 月 7 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2509 | 震荡 | 上涨 | 震荡偏强 | 震荡偏强 | 政策端利好预期构成较强支撑 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 观点参考 专业研究·创造价值 1/2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 观点参考 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：上涨 参考观点：震荡偏强 核心逻辑：上周五各股指均震荡整理，全天呈现冲高回落的走 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information found Group 2: Core View of the Report - The power coal price is expected to maintain a moderately strong and volatile trend in the near future, but the upside space is limited. The domestic demand for thermal coal is strong during the peak summer period, and the inventory in the middle and lower reaches is gradually depleted, driving the coal price to strengthen slightly. However, the relatively high port inventory still suppresses the rebound of the coal price [5]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory Power Coal Spot - **Supply**: After the National Safety Production Month ended, coal mines with production suspension and restrictions in the main producing areas resumed production one after another after the rectification was completed, leading to a slight increase in the supply of power coal [5]. - **Demand**: Since July, the domestic temperature has further risen, especially in some coastal provinces such as Jiangsu and Zhejiang, where the maximum temperature has exceeded 40°C, resulting in good residential cooling demand during the peak summer period. The National Climate Center predicts that in July 2025, the temperature in most parts of China will be higher than the same period of the previous year, and the precipitation in the southern part of the southwestern region is expected to be more than the same period of the previous year. Among them, the precipitation in most parts of Yunnan will be 20% - 50% more, and there is room for seasonal improvement in hydropower [5]. - **Port Inventory**: As of July 3, the total coal inventory of the 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 27.493 million tons, with a weekly de - stocking of 747,000 tons. It is still at a high level in the same period of the past 5 years, and the sufficient coal inventory in the northern ports continues to suppress the coal price [5].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货国债期货早报（2025 年 7 月 7 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：上周五国债期货均震荡整理，全天小幅收涨。月初流动性偏向宽松，叠加未来货币政策预 期偏向积极，国债期货表现偏强。从未来宏观环境来看，内需内生性增长动能有所不足，外需易受到 关税因素的冲击，下半年仍然需要偏宽松的货币环境来托底需求以及稳定预期，国债期货中长期向上 的逻辑较为牢靠。不过虽然短期内继续降息的可能性不高，但是政策利率的锚定效应较强，市场利率 上行空间有限，国债期货下行的空间较为有限。总的来说，短期内国债期货延续震荡整理。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡偏弱 | 震荡 | 货币政策环境偏向宽松，但短期 降息可能性不高 | 备注： 1 ...

Group 1 - The report is the Baocheng Futures' morning report on beans and oils dated July 7, 2025 [1] Group 2 - The short - term is defined as within a week, and the medium - term is from two weeks to one month, based on the previous day's night - session closing price [7] Group 3 - For the soybean meal (M) 2509 contract, the short - term view is "oscillating", the medium - term view is "bullish", the intraday view is "oscillating bullish", and the reference view is "oscillating bullish". The core logic involves import arrival rhythm, customs clearance inspection, oil mill operating rhythm, and stocking demand. With the release of imported soybean arrival pressure, domestic soybean supply is abundant. Oil mill soybean meal inventory has risen for 8 consecutive weeks. Downstream's expectation of future supply tightening supports procurement demand, and the short - term futures price may be oscillating bullish, affected by external markets and domestic supply [6][7] - For the soybean oil (Y) 2509 contract, the short - term view is "oscillating", the medium - term view is "bullish", the intraday view is "oscillating bullish", and the reference view is "oscillating bullish". The core logic includes US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory. US soybean oil inventory decline and new tax bill boost demand, and the domestic market is in a balanced state between inventory pressure and cost support, with short - term prices likely to be oscillating bullish [7][8] - For the palm oil (P) 2509 contract, the short - term view is "oscillating", the medium - term view is "bullish", the intraday view is "oscillating bullish", and the reference view is "oscillating bullish". The core logic involves biodiesel attributes, Malaysian palm oil production and exports, Indonesian exports, main - producing countries' tariff policies, domestic arrivals and inventory, and substitution demand. Malaysian palm oil production decline and strong exports may lead to inventory decrease, and domestic inventory has risen for 5 consecutive weeks, with prices following the international market and short - term volatility increasing [7][9]

宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 7 月 7 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2509 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 关注 MA5 一线支撑 | 乐观情绪发酵，矿价偏强震荡 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需两端有所变化，淡季钢厂临检增多，矿石终端消耗高位回落，整体仍是年内相对高位， 给予矿价支撑。同时，财年末冲量结束，矿商发运迎来回落，而港口到货也环比减量，海外矿石供应 迎来收缩，相应的内矿生产趋稳，矿石供应短期收缩，关注后续降幅情况。目前来看，政策利好预期 再现 ...

说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 7 月 7 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2510 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线支撑 | 基本面季节性弱势，钢价延续震 荡 | 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 周末钢材现货价格弱稳运行，成交偏弱，现实市场情绪相对谨慎，相应的螺纹钢供需格局变化 不大，钢厂转产带来螺纹产量持续回升，供应压力有所增加。与此同时，螺纹需求表现平稳，投机 需求放量刺激下高频需求指标有所回升，但仍是同期低位，且淡季改善空间存疑。目前来看，政策 利好预期驱动 ...