Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views of the Report - The main contract price of rebar fluctuated weakly, with a daily decline of 0.87%. The supply of rebar continued to shrink at a low level, supporting the steel price, but the demand was also weak. The fundamentals did not improve under the situation of weak supply and demand. The steel price was under pressure in the off - season. With the relatively low valuation, the steel price was expected to continue to oscillate and bottom out [5]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil oscillated downward, with a daily decline of 0.83%. Both the supply and demand sides of hot - rolled coil weakened, the industrial contradiction was not alleviated, the inventory de - stocking pressure was relatively large, and the price continued to be under pressure. With the relatively low valuation, it continued to operate in a weakly oscillating state under the weak reality pattern [5]. - The main contract price of iron ore oscillated, with a daily decline of 0.33%. Supported by the structural contradiction of the spot and the black arbitrage logic, the ore price remained at a high level. However, the demand for iron ore weakened while the supply remained at a high level. The fundamentals of the ore market were not good, and the upward driving force was not strong. The ore price maintained a high - level oscillating operation state under the game of multiple and short factors [5]. Summary of Each Section 1. Industry Dynamics - Minister of Finance Lan Fuan said to implement a more proactive fiscal policy, with "two maintenances" in specific arrangements and "three adherences" in implementation. The fiscal department will prepare next year's budget and implement policies [7]. - People's Bank of China Governor Pan Gongsheng said to continue implementing a moderately loose monetary policy, creating a good monetary and financial environment for economic growth and financial market stability, preventing and resolving key financial risks, and promoting global financial governance [8]. - As of December 11, 4 steel enterprises announced the progress of ultra - low emission transformation and evaluation and monitoring, and 234 steel enterprises have been publicly announced on the website of the China Iron and Steel Association [9]. 2. Spot Market | Variety | Location | Spot Price | Price Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar (HRB400E, 20mm) | Shanghai | 3,240 | 0 | | | Tianjin | 3,150 | - 10 | | | National Average | 3,290 | - 7 | | Hot - rolled coil (Shanghai, 4.75mm) | Shanghai | 3,240 | - 10 | | | Tianjin | 3,170 | - 20 | | | National Average | 3,284 | - 11 | | Tangshan Steel Billet (Q235) | - | 2,940 | 0 | | Zhangjiagang Heavy Scrap (≥6mm) | - | 2,060 | - 10 | | PB Powder (Shandong Port) | - | 779 | 2 | | Tangshan Iron Concentrate (Wet - based) | - | 778 | 0 | | Ocean Freight (Australia) | - | 10.54 | - 0.80 | | Ocean Freight (Brazil) | - | 22.84 | - 1.18 | | SGX Swap (Current Month) | - | 105.75 | - 0.79 | | Platts Index (CFR, 62%) | - | 105.00 | - 1.40 | | Coil - Rebar Price Difference | - | 0 | - 10 | | Rebar - Scrap Price Difference | - | 1,180 | 10 | [10] 3. Futures Market | Variety | Active Contract | Closing Price | Daily Change (%) | High | Low | Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Open Interest Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | - | 3,060 | - 0.87 | 3,082 | 3,057 | 974,336 | - 385,670 | 1,607,057 | 4,982 | | Hot - rolled Coil | - | 3,232 | - 0.83 | 3,251 | 3,226 | 488,186 | - 141,824 | 1,190,487 | 42,139 | | Iron Ore | - | 760.5 | - 0.33 | 764.5 | 756.0 | 243,565 | - 81,386 | 465,488 | - 2,568 | [14] 4. Related Charts - The section includes charts on steel inventory (rebar and hot - rolled coil inventory, including weekly changes and total inventory), iron ore inventory (national 45 - port inventory, 247 - steel - mill inventory, etc.), and steel - mill production (blast - furnace start - up rate, capacity utilization rate, independent electric - furnace start - up rate, etc.) [16][21][30] 5. Market Outlook - Rebar: The supply and demand continued to weaken. The weekly production of rebar decreased by 10.53 tons, and the demand decreased by 13.89 tons. The supply was at a low level, supporting the price, but the demand was also weak. With the relatively low valuation, the price was expected to continue to oscillate and bottom out [39]. - Hot - rolled Coil: The supply - demand pattern continued to be weak. The weekly production decreased by 5.60 tons, and the demand was also weak. The inventory de - stocking pressure was large, and the price continued to be under pressure. With the relatively low valuation, it continued to operate in a weakly oscillating state [39]. - Iron Ore: The supply - demand pattern changed little. The demand for iron ore weakened, and the supply remained at a high level. Supported by structural contradictions and arbitrage logic, the ore price remained high but with weak upward driving force, maintaining a high - level oscillating state [40].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 黑色金属 | 日报 2025 年 12 月 12 日 煤焦日报 专业研究·创造价值 成本需求双重压制，焦炭期货弱势运行 焦煤：截至 12 月 12 日当周，供应端全国 523 家炼焦煤矿精煤日均产量 75 万吨，环比降 0.4 万吨，同比降 5.3 万吨；需求端全样本焦化厂和钢厂焦 炭日均产量合计 110.59 万吨，周环比降 0.56 万吨，同比降 2.9 万吨。本 周内，焦煤现货价格仍偏弱运行，下游焦化厂利润改善，Mysteel 的 30 家独立样本焦化厂吨焦盈利周环比改善 14 元，至 44 元/吨。整体来看， 年末焦煤产需均小幅下滑，但蒙煤进口量的持续增长对市场氛围形成压 制，叠加政策端缺乏向上驱动，焦煤期货维持弱势运行。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 期货研究报告 碳酸锂 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 碳酸锂 | 日报 2025 年 12 月 12 日 碳酸锂日报 专业研究·创造价值 碳酸锂维持强势 摘要 【期货市场】主力合约 LC2605.GFE 收盘价 97720 元/吨，较前日下 跌 1160 元/吨（-1.17%），近 10 个交易日整体呈现上升走势。 【现货市场】碳酸锂现货价格为 94590 元/吨，较前日上涨 1.12%， 近 10 个交易日整体呈现震荡走势。 【基差分析】当前基差为-5070 点，负基差（现货贴水），较前日 走弱 710 点，近 10 个交易日基差整体走弱。 【仓单情况】碳酸 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货 投资咨询资格证书，本人承诺 以勤勉的职业态度，独立、客 观地出具本报告。本报告清晰 准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或 间接接收到任何形式的报酬。 姓名：陈栋 从业资格证号：F0251793 投资咨询证号：Z0001617 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：chendong@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 11615 2025 年 12 月 12 日 橡胶甲醇原油 专业研究·创造价值 偏空情绪占优 能化偏弱运行 核心观点 橡胶：本周五国内沪胶期货 2605 合约呈现缩量增仓，震荡偏强， 略微收涨的走势，盘中期价重心小幅上移至 15230 元/吨一线运行。收 盘时期价略微收涨 0.26%至 15230 元/吨。1-5 月差升水幅度收敛至 15 元/吨。目前国内胶市由供需基本面所主导，胶价维持区间内震荡。 宝城期货金融研究所 宝城期货投资咨询部 甲醇：本周五国内甲醇期货 2605 合约呈现放量增 ...

螺纹钢周度数据（20251212） 期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778号 本周值 环比变化 上月末值 本月变化 同期值（农历） 同期变化 周度产量 178.78 -10.53 206.08 -27.30 233.82 -55.04 高炉产能利用率（%） 85.92 -1.16 87.98 -2.06 88.53 -2.61 表观需求量 203.09 -13.89 227.94 -24.85 234.20 -31.11 钢联建材成交周均值 10.02 0.12 10.46 -0.44 11.61 -1.59 总库存 479.50 -24.31 531.48 -51.98 445.11 34.39 厂内库存 140.80 -1.88 146.73 -5.93 148.72 -7.92 社会库存 338.70 -22.43 384.75 -46.05 296.39 42.31 供给 需求 库存 150 200 250 300 350 春 节 前 15 周 春 节 前 12 周 春 节 前 9 周 春 节 前 6 周 春 节 前 3 周 春 节 当 周 春 节 后 3 周 春 节 后 6 周 ...

本周值 环比变化 上月末值 本月变化 同期值（农历） 同期变化 周度产量 308.71 -5.60 319.01 -10.30 311.85 -3.14 高炉产能利用率（%） 85.92 -1.16 87.98 -2.06 88.53 -2.61 表观需求量 311.97 -2.89 320.22 -8.25 318.91 -6.94 冷轧卷板周产量 86.31 0.79 84.76 1.55 84.70 1.61 总库存 397.09 -3.26 400.90 -3.81 315.23 81.86 厂内库存 84.03 4.11 78.02 6.01 78.40 5.63 社会库存 313.06 -7.37 322.88 -9.82 236.83 76.23 热轧卷板周度数据（20251212） 供给 需求 库存 270 280 290 300 310 320 330 340 热轧卷板周产量（农历） 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 70 75 80 85 90 95 高炉产能利用率（农历） 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 250 270 290 310 330 350 热 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has changed little. Steel mill production is weakening, and the terminal consumption of ore continues to decline. The demand for iron ore is in a weak pattern and continues to put pressure on prices. Overseas ore supply is positive, and the overall supply remains high. Due to the structural contradiction in the spot market and the support of black - variety arbitrage, iron ore prices are running at a high level. However, with weakening demand and high supply, the fundamentals are weak, and the upward driving force is limited. The iron ore price will maintain a high - level shock, and caution should be exercised regarding the shift of the trading logic to the real - world situation [2] 3. Summary According to the Directory Inventory - 45 - port iron ore inventory is 15,431.42, with a week - on - week increase of 130.61 and a monthly increase of 221.30 compared to the end of last month. It's 112.04 higher than the same period of the lunar calendar last year [1] - 247 steel mills' imported ore inventory is 8,831.20, with a week - on - week decrease of 153.53 and a monthly decrease of 111.28 compared to the end of last month. It's 341.84 lower than the same period of the lunar calendar last year [1] Supply - The arrival volume of iron ore at 45 domestic ports is 2,480.50, with a week - on - week decrease of 218.80 and a monthly decrease of 336.60 compared to the end of last month. It's 301.50 lower than the same period of the lunar calendar last year [1] - The global iron ore shipping volume is 3,368.56, with a week - on - week increase of 45.41 and a monthly increase of 90.14 compared to the end of last month. It's 357.66 higher than the same period of the lunar calendar last year [1] Demand - The average daily hot metal output of 247 steel mills is 229.20, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.10 and a monthly decrease of 5.48 compared to the end of last month. It's 6.60 lower than the same period of the lunar calendar last year [1] - The average daily port clearance volume at 45 ports is 319.19, with a week - on - week increase of 0.74 and a monthly decrease of 12.39 compared to the end of last month. It's 7.79 lower than the same period of the lunar calendar last year [1] - The daily consumption of imported ore by 247 steel mills is 283.27, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.80 and a monthly decrease of 6.16 compared to the end of last month. It's 9.34 lower than the same period of the lunar calendar last year [1] - The weekly average of iron ore transactions at major ports is 99.15, with a week - on - week decrease of 11.39 and a monthly decrease of 4.57 compared to the end of last month. It's 10.83 lower than the same period of the lunar calendar last year [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report believes that the policy利好预期 is gradually fermenting, and the stock index will be mainly oscillating and strengthening in the short term [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog 1. Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the IH2512 variety, the short - term view is oscillating, the medium - term view is oscillating, the intraday view is strengthening, and the overall view is oscillating and strengthening, with the core logic being the continuous fermentation of the policy利好预期 [1] 2. Price Market Driving Logic of Main Varieties - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include IF, IH, IC, and IM. The intraday view is strengthening, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillating and strengthening. The core logic is that although the stock index had a small oscillating correction yesterday, the trading volume increased. The short - term upward driving force of the stock index is insufficient, but considering the Fed's interest rate cut and the strong policy利好预期 next year, the risk appetite of the stock market is expected to continue to rise, and attention should be paid to the policy guidance of the subsequent Central Economic Work Conference [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends of rebar 2605 are expected to be volatile, and the overall view is volatile and weak. The steel price is in the process of finding the bottom due to the weak real - world situation [1]. - The supply and demand of rebar are both weak. The supply has contracted and reached a low level, providing support for steel prices, but the sustainability of short - process steel mill production cuts is questionable. The demand is weak, and the high - frequency indicators are at a low level, and the downstream industries have not improved, which will continue to weaken seasonally, dragging down steel prices. In the current supply - demand double - weak situation, the fundamentals have not improved, the steel price in the off - season is under pressure, and it is expected to continue the volatile bottom - finding trend [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2605, the short - term (within one week), medium - term (two weeks to one month), and intraday trends are all judged as volatile, with the intraday being volatile and weak, and the overall view is volatile and weak. The core logic is the weak real - world situation and the steel price finding the bottom [1]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The supply and demand of rebar are both weak. The supply has continued to contract and reached a low level, which provides support for steel prices, but the profit of short - process steel mills is acceptable, so the sustainability of production cuts is in question. The demand is weak, high - frequency indicators are in a low - level operation state, and the downstream industries have not improved, which is expected to continue to weaken seasonally, dragging down steel prices. In the current supply - demand double - weak situation, the fundamentals have not improved, the steel price in the off - season is under pressure, and the relatively positive factor is the low valuation. It is expected that the steel price will continue the volatile bottom - finding trend [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The report provides short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on soybean meal, soybean oil, and palm oil futures, with the overall market showing a mixed pattern of "near - strong and far - weak" in the soybean market and complex driving factors for each variety. [5][6][7] 3. Summary by Variety 3.1 Soybean Meal (M) - **View**: Short - term and intraday view is "oscillating weakly", medium - term view is "oscillating". The overall reference view is "oscillating weakly". [5][6] - **Core Logic**: The soybean market shows a "near - strong and far - weak" pattern due to the game between tight spot and weak expectations. US soybeans are in low - level oscillation, and Argentina's tariff reduction squeezes the US soybean market share. With the expected high - yield in Brazil, the support for far - month import costs declines. In the domestic market, the oil mill operating rate drops, and soybean auctions have high - price transactions, indicating short - term replenishment demand. In December, the arrival of imported soybeans may reach 9.5 million tons, and the state reserve continues to sell. The 05 contract corresponds to the period of concentrated soybean listing in South America, and the basis has weakened in advance. [5] 3.2 Soybean Oil (Y) - **View**: Short - term, intraday, and reference view is "oscillating strongly", medium - term view is "oscillating". [6][7] - **Core Logic**: The US soybean oil price needs to pay attention to the final implementation of the US biofuel policy, the implementation progress of Brazil's blending plan, and the evolution of the global soybean - palm oil price difference. The domestic soybean oil is still in the "weak reality" stage, and the de - stocking process of high inventory determines the price center. The contradiction between varieties is intensifying, and the domestic - foreign price difference of soybean oil is inverted. The wide - range oscillation range of the short - term soybean oil market is difficult to break. [7] 3.3 Palm Oil (P) - **View**: Short - term, intraday, and reference view is "oscillating strongly", medium - term view is "oscillating". [6][8] - **Core Logic**: The palm oil market shows a pulse - type rebound rather than a trend reversal, driven by short - covering and technical repair. However, palm oil has limited follow - up strength. The export decline in Malaysia in early December has widened, and production has increased month - on - month. The inventory pressure still affects the price. In the future, attention should be paid to Indonesia's biodiesel policy and the procurement rhythm of major importing countries. [8]