宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 12 月 12 日） 备注： ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2605 | 弱势 | 弱势 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡思路 | 偏空氛围主导，焦煤弱势下行 | | 焦炭 | 2601 | 弱势 | 弱势 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡思路 | 成本支撑坍塌，焦炭持续下挫 | 期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 观点参考 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：弱势 参考观点：震荡思路 核心逻辑：现货市场方面，甘其毛 ...

Report Overview - The report is a methanol morning report from Baocheng Futures dated December 12, 2025, focusing on the methanol 2605 contract [1]. Investment Ratings - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Views - The short - term view of methanol 2605 is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the intraday view is "weak". The overall reference view is "weak operation" [1]. - With the digestion of previous bullish factors, due to increasing domestic methanol supply pressure and the sharp correction of domestic coal futures prices, the methanol futures rally was blocked and fell into a correction. Although port and inland inventories have slightly declined, they remain at high levels, and downstream demand improvement is insufficient with weakening olefin profit on the disk. The domestic methanol futures are expected to maintain a weak - oscillating trend on Friday [5]. Summary According to Related Information Time - cycle Views - Short - term (within one week): The methanol 2605 contract is expected to oscillate [1]. - Medium - term (two weeks to one month): The methanol 2605 contract is expected to oscillate [1]. - Intraday: The methanol 2605 contract is expected to be weak [1]. Price and Market Logic - Core logic: The previous bullish factors have been digested. The increasing domestic methanol supply pressure and the sharp correction of domestic coal futures prices have led to the blockage of the methanol futures rally. The port and inland inventories, though slightly decreasing, are still high, and downstream demand improvement is insufficient with olefin profit on the disk weakening. On Thursday night, domestic methanol futures maintained a weak - oscillating trend with slightly lower prices, and are expected to continue this trend on Friday [5].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 12 月 12 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2602 | 偏强 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 观望 | 降息落地，美元美债收益率走弱 | | 铜 | 2601 | 强势 | 强势 | 强势 | 长线看强 | 宏观宽松，矿端减产，降息落地 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：观望 核心逻辑：昨夜金价震荡上行，纽约金站上 4300 美元关口，沪金逼近 9 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report suggests that Treasury bond futures are expected to consolidate in the short term, with a trading range due to both upward and downward pressures. In the medium to long term, the policy environment is conducive to a bullish outlook for Treasury bond futures, but short - term upward momentum is limited [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Sections 3.1 Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2603 variety, the short - term view is "sideways", the medium - term view is "sideways", and the intraday view is "weak". The overall view is "sideways consolidation". The core logic is that the probability of a short - term interest rate cut is low, while the long - term easing expectation still exists [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price and Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view for TL, T, TF, and TS is "weak", and the medium - term view is "sideways", with a reference view of "sideways consolidation". The core logic is that Treasury bond futures rebounded with fluctuations yesterday. The latest inflation data has rebounded but remains weak, and the liquidity of the capital market is loose. The Fed's interest rate cut in December has increased the expectation of monetary easing policy space, leading to a strong performance of Treasury bond futures this week. In the medium to long term, the monetary policy environment tends to be loose, providing strong support for Treasury bond futures. However, there is insufficient need for a short - term interest rate cut, and the concentrated supply of Treasury bonds in the first quarter of next year will bring some pressure, limiting the short - term upward momentum of Treasury bond futures [5].

期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货橡胶早报-2025-12-12 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 偏空氛围增强，沪胶震荡偏弱 | | 合成胶 | 2602 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 偏空氛围增强，合成胶震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶（RU） 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑： ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore market is expected to have a wide - range oscillation, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends being oscillation, oscillation, and oscillation with a slight upward bias respectively, mainly due to short - term bullish support and high - level oscillation of ore prices [1] - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has not improved. Steel mill production is weakening, terminal consumption of ore is declining, and the profit situation has not improved. Although domestic port arrivals have decreased and overseas miners' shipments have increased, the supply pressure still exists. The spot structural contradiction and black arbitrage logic support the high - level operation of ore prices, but the poor fundamentals result in weak upward driving force, and the ore price will maintain a high - level oscillation state, with attention paid to the performance of steel products [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For iron ore 2605, the short - term view is oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the intraday view is oscillation with a slight upward bias, with a general view of wide - range oscillation. The core logic is short - term bullish support leading to high - level oscillation of ore prices [1] Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore is unfavorable. Steel mill production and ore consumption are weak, while the supply is at a relatively high level. Spot structural contradictions and arbitrage logic support high - level prices, but the weak fundamentals limit upward movement, and the ore price will oscillate at a high level, with the steel performance being a key factor to watch [2]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - On December 11, the futures prices of beans and oils rose first and then fell. The price of soybean No.1 futures increased by over 1%, and the price rebounded above multiple moving - averages with an increase of 7,000 lots in positions. The price of soybean No.2 futures rose by over 2%, continuing the previous day's rebound trend with little change in funds. The price of soybean meal futures fluctuated at a low level, pressured by the 5 - day moving average, and funds continued to shift to the far - month 05 contract with a slight outflow of funds. The price of rapeseed meal futures rose and then fell, pressured by the 5 - day moving average, showing a weak overall pattern with an increase of 11,000 lots in positions. The price of oil futures rose and then fell. The price of soybean oil futures was pressured by the 10 - day moving average with an increase of 25,000 lots in positions. The price of palm oil futures fluctuated strongly, pressured by the 30 - day moving average, and finally closed below the 5 - day moving average with an increase of 24,000 lots in positions. The price of rapeseed oil futures increased by over 1.5%, pressured by the 30 - day moving average with little change in funds [5]. - The recent soybean market has continued the "near - strong and far - weak" differentiation pattern. The core driver lies in the game between tight spot and weak expectations. US soybeans continued to fluctuate at a low level, and the export sales report became a key variable. However, the tariff cut in Argentina squeezed the market share of US soybeans, and the expected bumper harvest in Brazil in South America led to a downward shift in the support of far - month import costs. The domestic market showed a structural contradiction: the operating rate of oil mills declined periodically, and the 100% transaction of soybean auctions confirmed the short - term replenishment demand. The arrival of imported soybeans in December may reach 9.5 million tons, and the state reserve continued to sell off. The 05 contract corresponds to the period of concentrated soybean listing in South America, and the basis has weakened in advance to - 150 yuan/ton. In the short term, soybean meal 2605 continued to fluctuate at a low level, and the near - strong and far - weak pattern continued [6]. - The oil market showed a pulse - type rebound rather than a trend reversal. The core driver was the dual effects of short - covering and technical repair needs. Firstly, after the previous continuous decline of rapeseed oil, short - sellers took profits, triggering a short - squeeze, but the market's expectations for state purchases and anti - dumping tax rate adjustments have not been confirmed, and the sustainability is questionable. Secondly, palm oil followed the rise weakly. Driven by the rebound of BMD, the export decline in Malaysia in the first ten days of December widened, and the output increased month - on - month. The inventory pressure still put pressure on the palm oil price. Finally, soybean oil fluctuated weakly. On the one hand, the state's sale of soybeans supplemented the supply, and on the other hand, the cost support of US soybeans in the outer market weakened. Currently, the high pressure of the total inventory of the three major domestic oils at 2.43 million tons still exists. The short - term market is a technical repair under the disturbance of news. Before the inventory inflection point of palm oil arrives and the rapeseed oil policy is implemented, the oscillation center of the oil sector remains unchanged, and the risk of a rise and then fall should still be vigilant [7]. 3. Summary by Directory Industry Dynamics - A weather report on Wednesday showed that the initial forecast for March - May 2026 indicated that the La Nina phenomenon would completely dissipate during the Northern Hemisphere spring. In the US, crops in the Midwest/Plains faced a higher risk of drought, and Russia also faced drought risks. There might be excessive precipitation or spring floods in the North China Plain and Indonesia. In the next 5 days, the northern plains, Midwest, and northeastern regions of the US would face a cold snap risk, while the western temperatures would remain high. Heavy rainfall was mainly concentrated in the northwest, and snowfall would occur in the northern plains/Midwest and northeastern regions, with other areas remaining dry. In South America, the Pampas region in Argentina had lower temperatures and higher - than - normal rainfall, but only in the southern part; Brazil had more rainfall and lower temperatures. In Europe, most regions would have higher - than - average temperatures in the next week, and most regions except the UK, Spain, and Scandinavia would have lower - than - normal precipitation. In Asia, most regions would have temperatures close to or slightly lower than normal in the next 15 days, and the weather conditions in the eastern regions varied. It was expected that Southeast Asia and East Asia would have higher - than - normal precipitation [9]. - After being hit by a year of low prices, soaring costs, and a sharp decline in exports, American farmers welcomed President Trump's newly announced $12 billion agricultural aid plan but generally believed that this amount was only a "lifeline" and far from enough to make up for the industry's losses of $34 - 44 billion this year. Farmers' income was under pressure due to multiple factors. The prices of staple grains such as corn, soybeans, and wheat had been low for a long time, while input costs such as labor, fertilizers, and seeds continued to rise, greatly eroding profit margins. Trump's trade policies led to disputes that blocked the main US export markets, and soybeans were particularly hard - hit. China suspended all US soybean imports from May to November, causing American farmers to lose billions of dollars in export orders during the peak export season. Analysts believed that this part of the demand could not be recovered, and federal aid was expected to cover only a quarter of the soybean losses. From a macro perspective, the overall US agricultural economy was weak, and it was generally expected to continue to deteriorate in 2026. Less than half of the farmers were expected to make a profit next year, and cash - flow shortages, insufficient earnings, and inflation pressure were the three major concerns of the loan industry [10]. - The US Department of Agriculture said on Wednesday that private exporters reported selling 136,000 tons of US soybeans to China for delivery in the 2025/26 fiscal year. Since October 30, the USDA has confirmed sales of 2.984 million tons of soybeans to China through daily export reports. Chinese and US leaders met in South Korea on October 30 and reached an agreement to ease trade conflicts [11]. - The monthly crushing data released by the US Department of Agriculture on Wednesday showed that the US soybean crushing volume in October reached a record high and was higher than market expectations. In October 2025, the US soybean crushing volume was 7.11 million short tons (equivalent to 237 million bushels), 15.6% higher than the 6.15 million short tons (250 million bushels) in September and 9.9% higher than the 6.47 million short tons (215.8 million bushels) in October 2024. Before the report was released, analysts' expected value was 7.027 million short tons (equivalent to 234.2 million bushels), with a forecast range from 229.9 million to 242.5 million bushels and a median of 233.3 million bushels. Due to the US government shutdown from October 1 to November 12, the crushing data for September and October were delayed, and the September data were re - issued on Wednesday. Previously, analysts predicted that the September soybean crushing volume would be 205.4 million bushels. In the past two years, the US soybean crushing industry has undergone significant capacity expansion, mainly driven by the growing demand for biofuels, especially the strong growth in the demand for soybean oil in the renewable diesel industry. Driven by this, the US soybean crushing volume has continued to rise, reaching record highs several times this year. With the successive commissioning of new capacities and the listing of new soybean supplies, October became an important window for crushing enterprises to increase their operating rates. The National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) had previously announced that its member companies' soybean crushing volume in October reached 227.6 million bushels, also setting a historical high [12]. Price and Profit Data - The price of imported second - grade soybeans in Dalian was 3,980 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the average price of soybeans was 4,014 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang (≥43%) was 3,060 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton; the average price of soybean meal was 3,132 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton. The price of fourth - grade soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8,570 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton; the average price of soybean oil was 8,559 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton. The price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,680 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton; the average price of palm oil was 8,753 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton. The price of imported fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Zhangjiagang was 10,000 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan/ton; the average price of rapeseed oil was 10,118 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan/ton [13]. - The oil mill crushing profit data showed that in Heilongjiang (domestic), with soybeans at 3,940 yuan/ton, soybean meal at 3,270 yuan/ton, and soybean oil at 8,660 yuan/ton, the profit was 121.15 yuan. In Dalian (domestic), with soybeans at 4,020 yuan/ton, soybean meal at 3,160 yuan/ton, and soybean oil at 8,470 yuan/ton, the profit was - 81.60 yuan. In Dalian (imported), with soybeans at 3,980 yuan/ton, soybean meal at 3,160 yuan/ton, and soybean oil at 8,470 yuan/ton, the profit was - 20.10 yuan, etc. [14] Related Charts - The report includes charts such as soybean port inventory, soybean盘面压榨利润 (the description seems to be in Chinese and might be "soybean on - disk crushing profit"), soybean oil port inventory, palm oil port inventory, soybean oil basis, and palm oil basis, with data sources from iFinD and the Baocheng Futures Research Institute [15][17][19]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The main contract price of rebar weakened again, with a daily decline of 1.32%, and the volume decreased while the open interest increased. Currently, rebar supply has been continuously shrinking at a low level, supporting steel prices, but demand is also weak. In the situation of weak supply and demand, the fundamentals have not improved, and steel prices are under pressure in the off - season. The relatively positive factor is the low valuation. It is expected that the trend will continue to oscillate and seek the bottom. Attention should be paid to the production changes of steel mills [5]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil weakened and declined, with a daily decline of 1.19%, and the volume decreased while the open interest increased. At present, both supply and demand of hot - rolled coil have weakened, the industrial contradiction has not been alleviated, and the inventory reduction pressure is relatively large, so the hot - rolled coil price continues to be under pressure. The relatively positive factor is the low valuation. In the weak reality pattern, the hot - rolled coil will continue to operate in a weak oscillation. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [5]. - The main contract price of iron ore fell from a high level, with a daily decline of 1.30%, and both volume and open interest decreased. Currently, short - term positive factors support the iron ore price to return to a high level, but the demand for iron ore continues to decline while the supply remains at a high level. In the situation of strong supply and weak demand, the fundamentals of the iron ore market are weak, and the upward driving force is not strong. Under the game of multiple and short factors, the iron ore price will maintain a high - level oscillation. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel products [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Industrial Dynamics - According to Mysteel statistics, the total sales of 17 key real - estate enterprises from January to November 2025 were 119.9231 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 21.4%. In November, the total sales were 10.0593 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 32.1% and a month - on - month decrease of 7.5%. In November, there were 14 real - estate enterprises with sales exceeding 10 billion yuan. Poly Developments, Greentown China, and China Overseas Land & Investment ranked in the top three with sales of 240.866 billion yuan, 223.5 billion yuan, and 211.399 billion yuan respectively. From January to November, only China Jinmao achieved year - on - year growth in sales, with a year - on - year increase of 21.3%. The sales of the other 16 real - estate enterprises decreased year - on - year, among which Gemdale Group had the largest decline, with a year - on - year decrease of 56.3% [7]. - According to the latest data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in November, China's automobile production and sales continued to perform well, and both production and sales increased month - on - month and year - on - year. In November, China's monthly automobile production exceeded 3.5 million for the first time, setting a new historical high. In the first 11 months of this year, both automobile production and sales exceeded 31 million, with a year - on - year growth of over 10%. From January to November this year, the production and sales of new - energy vehicles in China were both close to 15 million, with a year - on - year growth of over 30%. In terms of exports, new - energy vehicle exports reached 2.315 million, a year - on - year increase of 100% [8]. - Starting from 16:00 on December 11, 2025, Handan City lifted the orange warning level II emergency response for heavy pollution weather as the atmospheric diffusion conditions gradually improved [9]. 2. Spot Market - Rebar: The Shanghai price was 3,240 yuan, down 10 yuan; the Tianjin price was 3,160 yuan, down 20 yuan; the national average price was 3,298 yuan, down 3 yuan [10]. - Hot - rolled coil: The Shanghai price was 3,250 yuan, down 30 yuan; the Tianjin price was 3,200 yuan, up 10 yuan; the national average price was 3,297 yuan, down 10 yuan [10]. - Tangshan billet: The price was 2,960 yuan, unchanged [10]. - Zhangjiagang heavy scrap: The price was 2,070 yuan, down 10 yuan [10]. - PB powder (Shandong port): The price was 777 yuan, down 6 yuan [10]. - Tangshan iron concentrate powder (wet basis): The price was 783 yuan, unchanged [10]. - Ocean freight: The Australian freight was 11.34 yuan, down 0.42 yuan; the Brazilian freight was 24.01 yuan, down 0.82 yuan [10]. - SGX swap (current month): The price was 106.54 yuan, up 0.59 yuan [10]. - Platts Index (CFR, 62%): The price was 106.40 yuan, up 0.90 yuan [10]. 3. Futures Market - Rebar: The closing price of the active contract was 3,069 yuan, a decline of 1.32%. The highest price was 3,118 yuan, the lowest price was 3,061 yuan, the trading volume was 1,360,006 lots, a decrease of 159,246 lots, and the open interest was 1,602,075 lots, an increase of 87,857 lots [14]. - Hot - rolled coil: The closing price of the active contract was 3,238 yuan, a decline of 1.19%. The highest price was 3,283 yuan, the lowest price was 3,236 yuan, the trading volume was 630,010 lots, a decrease of 57,172 lots, and the open interest was 1,148,348 lots, an increase of 42,440 lots [14]. - Iron ore: The closing price of the active contract was 757.0 yuan, a decline of 1.30%. The highest price was 771.0 yuan, the lowest price was 754.5 yuan, the trading volume was 324,951 lots, a decrease of 54,852 lots, and the open interest was 468,056 lots, a decrease of 1,378 lots [14]. 4. Related Charts - The report provides charts on steel inventory (including rebar and hot - rolled coil inventory), iron ore inventory (including port inventory, 247 - steel - mill inventory, and domestic mine iron concentrate powder inventory), and steel - mill production situation (including blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, profitability ratio, etc.) [16][21][32] 5.后市研判 - Rebar: Supply and demand continue to weaken. The weekly output of rebar decreased by 105,300 tons month - on - month, and supply has continuously shrunk to a low level, supporting steel prices, but the sustainability of short - process steel mill production cuts needs to be tracked. Meanwhile, rebar demand is weak, with the weekly apparent demand decreasing by 138,900 tons month - on - month, and high - frequency daily transactions are weakly stable. Both are at low levels in recent years, and downstream conditions have not improved. It is expected that demand will continue to weaken seasonally, putting pressure on steel prices. Overall, rebar supply is continuously shrinking at a low level, supporting steel prices, but demand is also weak. In the situation of weak supply and demand, the fundamentals have not improved, and steel prices are under pressure in the off - season. The relatively positive factor is the low valuation. It is expected that the trend will continue to oscillate and seek the bottom. Attention should be paid to the production changes of steel mills [42]. - Hot - rolled coil: The supply - demand pattern remains weak. The weekly output of hot - rolled coil decreased by 56,000 tons month - on - month, and supply has continuously shrunk from a high level, but the inventory level is high, and the pressure relief is limited. Meanwhile, hot - rolled coil demand remains weak, with weak weekly apparent demand and high - frequency transactions. The relatively positive factor is that the production of the main downstream cold - rolled products has continued to increase, supporting demand, but there are concerns about external demand due to export policy disturbances. At present, both supply and demand of hot - rolled coil have weakened, the industrial contradiction has not been alleviated, and the inventory reduction pressure is relatively large. The hot - rolled coil price continues to be under pressure. The relatively positive factor is the low valuation. In the weak reality pattern, the hot - rolled coil will continue to operate in a weak oscillation. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [42]. - Iron ore: The supply - demand pattern continues to weaken. At the end of the year, more steel mills are under maintenance, and the terminal demand for iron ore continues to decline. The average daily hot - metal output and imported ore consumption of sample steel mills decreased again last week, and the decline rate has increased. Moreover, the profitability of steel mills has not improved, and iron ore demand is expected to remain weak, putting pressure on iron ore prices. Meanwhile, the arrival volume at domestic ports has continued to decline, while the shipments of overseas miners have increased month - on - month, and both are still at high levels within the year. Overseas iron ore supply is active. Even though domestic ore supply is seasonally shrinking, iron ore supply remains high. In short, short - term positive factors support the iron ore price to return to a high level, but iron ore demand continues to decline while the supply remains at a high level. In the situation of strong supply and weak demand, the fundamentals of the iron ore market are weak, and the upward driving force is not strong. Under the game of multiple and short factors, the iron ore price will maintain a high - level oscillation. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel products [43].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 黑色金属 | 日报 2025 年 12 月 11 日 煤焦日报 专业研究·创造价值 利多驱动不足，煤焦持续下挫 核心观点 焦炭：12 月 11 日，焦炭主力合约报收于 1491.5 元/吨，日内录得 2.96% 的跌幅。截至收盘，主力合约持仓量为 2.54 万手，较前一交易日仓差为- 631 手。现货市场方面，日照港准一级湿熄焦平仓价格指数最新报价为 1620 元/吨，周环比持平；青岛港准一级湿熄焦出库价为 1450 元/吨，周 环比持平。近期，原材料焦煤基本面预期疲弱，拖累焦炭期货弱势运行， 但考虑到 12 月国内重要会议或释放宏观利好，以及年末煤矿存减产预 期，焦炭下跌持续性有待观察，主要利空风险在于焦煤供应的超预期宽 松。 焦煤：12 月 11 日，焦煤主力合约报收 1035 点，日内下跌 4.39%。截至收 盘，主力合约持仓量为 51.10 万手，较前一交易日仓差为+3764 手。现货 市场方面，甘其毛都口岸蒙煤最新报价为 1170.0 元/吨，周环比下跌 2.5%。近期，蒙煤进口量加速释放，供应端压力带动焦煤弱势运行，但考 虑到 12 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2605 showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, oscillating and consolidating, and slightly closing lower. The price center of the contract during the session slightly moved down to around 15,185 yuan/ton, and closed slightly down 0.03% at 15,185 yuan/ton. The premium of the 1 - 5 month spread converged to 20 yuan/ton. Currently, the domestic rubber market is dominated by supply - demand fundamentals, and rubber prices are oscillating within a range [6]. - **Methanol**: On Thursday, the domestic methanol futures contract 2605 showed a trend of increasing volume, increasing positions, oscillating weakly, and slightly closing lower. The futures price rose to a maximum of 2,149 yuan/ton and dropped to a minimum of 2,118 yuan/ton, closing slightly down 0.56% at 2,120 yuan/ton. The discount of the 1 - 5 month spread converged to 46 yuan/ton. Affected by the sharp decline in domestic coal futures prices, the methanol futures started a stage of corrective consolidation [7]. - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, the domestic crude oil futures contract 2601 showed a trend of increasing volume, reducing positions, weakening and moving down, and slightly closing lower. The futures price rose to a maximum of 445.8 yuan/barrel and dropped to a minimum of 438.2 yuan/barrel, closing slightly down 1.04% at 439.7 yuan/barrel. The expectation of oversupply re - dominated the market, Saudi Arabia lowered its selling prices in Asia, and the bearish atmosphere dominated, so the crude oil futures were running weakly [7]. 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Rubber**: As of December 7, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 488,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7,200 tons or 1.49%. The bonded area inventory was 73,900 tons, an increase of 2.08%; the general trade inventory was 414,800 tons, an increase of 1.38%. In the week of December 5, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 68.33%, a week - on - week increase of 2.33 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.59 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of China's full - steel tire sample enterprises was 64%, a week - on - week increase of 1.25 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.87 percentage points. In November 2025, China's automobile dealer inventory warning index was 55.6%, a year - on - year increase of 3.8 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 3.0 percentage points. In November, China's logistics industry prosperity index was 50.9%, a month - on - month increase of 0.2 percentage points. In November 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 100,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 6% compared with October and a year - on - year increase of about 46% compared with 68,500 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to November 2025, China's heavy - truck market cumulative sales exceeded 1 million vehicles, reaching 1.03 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 26% [9][10][11]. - **Methanol**: As of the week of November 28, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 84.01%, a week - on - week increase of 0.24%, a month - on - month increase of 0.13%, and a year - on - year increase of 3.53%. The average weekly methanol output in China reached 2.0236 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 9,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 55,500 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 178,400 tons compared with 1.8452 million tons last year. As of the week of December 5, 2025, the domestic methanol - to - olefin futures market profit was 20 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 67 yuan/ton and a month - on - month decrease of 195 yuan/ton. As of the week of November 28, 2025, the port methanol inventory in East and South China was 1.1675 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 76,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 115,400 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 165,700 tons. As of the week of December 4, 2025, the inland methanol inventory in China totaled 361,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 12,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 25,000 tons, and a year - on - year decrease of 13,900 tons compared with 375,400 tons last year [12][13]. - **Crude Oil**: As of the week of December 5, 2025, the number of active oil drilling platforms in the United States was 413, a week - on - week increase of 6 and a year - on - year decrease of 69. The average daily crude oil output in the United States was 13.853 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 38,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 222,000 barrels per day, at a historical high. As of the week of December 5, 2025, the U.S. commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 425.7 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 1.812 million barrels and a year - on - year increase of 3.741 million barrels. The U.S. refinery operating rate was 94.5%, a week - on - week increase of 0.4 percentage points, a month - on - month increase of 5.1 percentage points, and a year - on - year increase of 2.1 percentage points. As of October 28, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 65,601 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 25,801 contracts and a decrease of 32,247 contracts or 32.96% compared with the average of 97,848 contracts in September. As of December 2, 2025, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 146,447 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 20,860 contracts and a decrease of 8,741 contracts or 5.63% compared with the average of 155,188 contracts in November [13][14]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change | Futures Main Contract | Change | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,850 yuan/ton | +150 yuan/ton | 15,185 yuan/ton | -30 yuan/ton | -335 yuan/ton | +30 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,095 yuan/ton | +0 yuan/ton | 2,120 yuan/ton | -9 yuan/ton | -25 yuan/ton | +9 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 409.6 yuan/barrel | -0.4 yuan/barrel | 439.7 yuan/barrel | -4.0 yuan/barrel | -30.1 yuan/barrel | +3.6 yuan/barrel | [15] 3.3 Related Charts The report lists various charts for rubber, methanol, and crude oil, including rubber basis, methanol basis, crude oil basis, etc., with data sources from Wind and Baocheng Futures Financial Research Institute [16][29][41].