Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 2: Core Views - The iron ore market is expected to maintain a high - level volatile trend. The supply - demand pattern is stable, but there is a weakening expectation for demand, and the valuation is moderately high with limited upward driving force. Attention should be paid to the performance of finished products [1][2] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Variety View Reference - For the iron ore 2601 contract, the short - term and medium - term trends are expected to be volatile, and the intraday trend is expected to be weakly volatile. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is the stable supply - demand pattern and the high - level volatility of ore prices [1] Market Driving Logic - On the demand side, steel mills' production is stable, and ore demand is fair, providing support for ore prices. However, there are signs of production restrictions, and steel mills' profits are shrinking, weakening the positive effects. On the supply side, domestic port arrivals have declined, but overseas miners' shipments remain high. The expected arrivals of Australian and Brazilian ores are set to increase according to shipping schedules. Although domestic ore production is restricted, overall ore supply is stable. In summary, ore demand is okay but has a weakening expectation, supply is relatively stable, and the valuation is moderately high, resulting in limited upward driving force for ore prices [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term and intraday view of rebar 2510 is oscillating weakly, and the medium - term view is oscillating. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line. The core logic is that industrial contradictions are accumulating and steel prices are under pressure [2]. - Due to weak market sentiment, poor supply - demand pattern, and weak demand in the off - season, steel prices are under pressure. However, the recent increase in cost limits the downward space, and it is expected that steel prices will continue the weak operation trend. Attention should be paid to the production and sales data released by Steel Union today [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2510, the short - term and intraday trends are oscillating weakly, the medium - term trend is oscillating. The view is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line, and the core logic is the accumulation of industrial contradictions and the pressure on steel prices [2]. Market Driving Logic - Market sentiment has weakened, the supply - demand pattern of rebar is poor. Supply has shrunk but the profit per ton is okay with limited production reduction space. Demand continues the seasonal weakness, high - frequency indicators are at a low level, and the weak demand restricts steel prices. Although the cost has increased recently, the downward space is limited. Overall, steel prices are expected to continue the weak operation trend [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - For IH2509, the short - term view is oscillation, the medium - term view is upward, the intraday view is oscillation with a slight upward trend, and the overall view is upward, supported by positive policy expectations [1]. - For IF, IH, IC, and IM, the intraday view is oscillation with a slight upward trend, the medium - term view is upward, and the overall view is upward. Although the stock market had a technical adjustment yesterday due to profit - taking of some funds, the previous rebound was supported by policy - side positive expectations and loose liquidity in the capital market. However, as the stock index has risen continuously, the valuation has reached a relatively high historical quantile level, and the short - term profit - taking willingness of funds has increased. In general, the stock index will mainly oscillate and consolidate in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - **IH2509**: Short - term (within a week) is oscillation, medium - term (two weeks to one month) is upward, intraday is oscillation with a slight upward trend, and the overall view is upward. The core logic is that positive policy expectations provide strong support [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - **IF, IH, IC, IM**: Yesterday, the stock indexes oscillated and declined. The total turnover of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 3197.8 billion yuan, an increase of 488 billion yuan compared with the previous day. The afternoon decline was due to the profit - taking of some stocks that had risen significantly. The previous rebound was supported by policy - side positive expectations and loose capital liquidity. Anti - involution and consumption - promotion policies optimize the supply - demand structure, promote the gentle recovery of price indexes, and drive a positive cycle. The capital market has loose liquidity, and the willingness to allocate funds to the stock market has increased. However, the valuation has reached a relatively high historical quantile level, and the short - term profit - taking willingness of funds has increased. In the short term, the stock index will mainly oscillate and consolidate [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned Group 2: Core Views - Today, copper prices showed a trend of increasing positions and declining. The macro - level atmosphere cooled, the equity market declined from a high level, and commodities generally weakened. In the industrial sector, market trading sentiment further weakened near the end of the month. With the weakening of the domestic macro - atmosphere and the rebound of the overseas US dollar index, copper prices are under pressure. Attention should be paid to the support at the 79,000 mark of Shanghai copper [4]. - Last night, Shanghai aluminum significantly increased positions and rose. During the day, the main contract price fluctuated narrowly above 20,800. Although the domestic commodity atmosphere cooled today, aluminum prices showed strength. In the industrial sector, as reported by SMM, with aluminum prices remaining at a high level, the downstream's purchasing fear of high prices is increasing. Technically, aluminum prices face technical pressure at the previous high [5]. - Last night, nickel prices stabilized and rebounded. During the day, they rose first and then fell. The main contract price generally fluctuated above 122,000. The cooling domestic atmosphere has little impact on nickel. In the industrial sector, the trading of nickel ore is fair, and ore prices remain stable. The continuous increase in domestic nickel ore port inventories and refined nickel inventories suppresses nickel prices. Technically, attention should be paid to the technical pressure at the 122,000 mark [6]. Group 3: Summary of Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: Zijin Mining produced 570,000 tons of mined copper and 41 tons of mined gold in the first half of the year [8]. - **Aluminum**: Starting from the settlement on August 28, 2025 (Thursday), the trading margin ratio and daily limit range of cast aluminum alloy futures contracts will be adjusted. The daily limit range will be adjusted to 5%, the hedging position trading margin ratio to 6%, and the general position trading margin ratio to 7%. As of August 26, the total daily social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in Foshan, Ningbo, and Wuxi was 32,373 tons, an increase of 405 tons from the previous trading day and 914 tons from last Tuesday (August 19) [9]. - **Nickel**: Today, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel is in the range of 121,700 - 124,600 yuan/ton, with an average price of 123,150 yuan/ton, a rise of 1,700 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range of Jinchuan No. 1 nickel is 2,400 - 2,600 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 2,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount quotation range of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel is - 100 - 300 yuan/ton [9]. Group 4: Summary of Related Charts - **Copper**: The report includes charts of copper basis, copper monthly spread, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper, overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [10][14][12]. - **Aluminum**: The report includes charts of aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum, alumina inventory, and aluminum rod inventory [22][28][24]. - **Nickel**: The report includes charts of nickel basis, LME inventory, Shanghai nickel monthly spread, SHFE inventory, nickel ore port inventory, and LME nickel trend [34][36][40].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The main contract price of rebar showed a weak and volatile trend, with a daily decline of 0.48%. In the current situation of weak supply and demand, the fundamentals of rebar in the off - season remain poor, and the steel price is under pressure. However, the cost increase limits the downward space. In the short term, it is expected to continue the weak and volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the demand changes [4]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil declined in a volatile manner, with a daily decline of 0.92%. The demand for hot - rolled coil shows good resilience, which supports the price. But the fundamentals have not improved under the high - supply pattern. The cost increase and production - restriction disturbances are relatively positive factors. It is expected that the price will continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [4]. - The main contract price of iron ore fluctuated, with a daily decline of 0.64%. The demand for iron ore shows certain resilience, which supports the price. However, the fundamentals have not been substantially improved, and the valuation is relatively high, with weak upward driving force. It is expected to maintain a high - level volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished products [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics - From January to July, China completed 394.6 billion person - times of cross - regional population movement, a year - on - year increase of 3.9%. The traffic fixed - asset investment reached 1.95 trillion yuan. In July, the volume of commercial freight reached 497 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. From January to July, the volume of commercial freight reached 33 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.8% [6]. - In 2025, the national plan is to start the renovation of 25,000 old urban residential areas. From January to July, 19,800 old urban residential areas started renovation. Six regions including Hebei, Liaoning, etc. had a start - up rate of over 90% [7]. - From January to July, the total profit of large - scale industrial enterprises in China was 4,020.35 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7%. The total profit of the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry was 64.36 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5175.4% [8]. 2. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar, hot - rolled coil, and Tangshan billet decreased, while the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap remained unchanged. The prices of 61.5% PB powder decreased, and the price of Tangshan iron concentrate remained stable. The sea freight, SGX swap, and Platts Index also showed certain changes [9]. 3. Futures Market - The closing price of rebar futures was 3,111 yuan, with a decline of 0.48%. The trading volume increased, and the open interest decreased. - The closing price of hot - rolled coil futures was 3,349 yuan, with a decline of 0.92%. The trading volume increased, and the open interest decreased. - The closing price of iron ore futures was 775.5 yuan, with a decline of 0.64%. The trading volume decreased, and the open interest increased [11]. 4. Related Charts - The charts show the inventory of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, the production situation of steel mills, etc., including weekly changes, total inventory, and seasonal trends [13][18][26]. 5. Future Market Judgment - For rebar, the supply - demand pattern remains weak, with continuous inventory accumulation. The weekly output decreased, but the profit per ton is acceptable, and the sustainability of production reduction needs to be tracked. The demand is at a low level, and the steel price is under pressure. It is expected to continue the weak and volatile trend [33]. - For hot - rolled coil, the supply increased, and the demand showed good resilience. However, the high - supply pattern has not improved the fundamentals. The cost increase and production - restriction disturbances are positive factors, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate [33]. - For iron ore, the supply - demand pattern changed little. The demand showed certain resilience, but the fundamentals have not been substantially improved, and the valuation is relatively high. It is expected to maintain a high - level volatile trend [34].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the content. 2. Core Views - The domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 on Wednesday showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, fluctuating weakly, and closing slightly lower. The price center of the contract during the session moved down slightly to 15,760 yuan/ton. At the close, the price closed 1.35% lower at 15,760 yuan/ton. The backwardation of the 9 - 1 spread converged to 955 yuan/ton. With the divergence between long and short in the rubber market and the improvement of macro - expectations competing with the negative industrial factors, it is expected that the domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 may maintain a volatile consolidation trend in the future [4]. - The domestic methanol futures contract 2601 on Wednesday showed a trend of increasing volume and positions, fluctuating weakly, and falling slightly. The contract price rose to a maximum of 2,396 yuan/ton and dropped to a minimum of 2,371 yuan/ton. At the close, it fell 1.70% to 2,372 yuan/ton. The backwardation of the 9 - 1 spread widened to 125 yuan/ton. Affected by the decline in domestic coal futures prices and the weak supply - demand structure of methanol, it is expected that the domestic methanol futures contract 2601 may maintain a weakly volatile trend in the future [4]. - The domestic crude oil futures contract 2510 on Wednesday showed a trend of increasing volume and positions, weakening, and closing sharply lower. The contract price rose to a maximum of 493.3 yuan/barrel and dropped to a minimum of 478.0 yuan/barrel. At the close, it fell 3.62% to 479.7 yuan/barrel. As the South American geopolitical factors are digested, crude oil has returned to the market dominated by the weak supply - demand fundamentals. It is expected that the domestic crude oil futures contract 2510 may maintain a weakly volatile trend in the future [5]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of August 24, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 606,200 tons, a decrease of 10,500 tons or 1.71% from the previous period. The bonded area inventory was 73,300 tons, a decrease of 4.70%, and the general trade inventory was 532,900 tons, a decrease of 1.28%. The inbound rate of the sample bonded warehouses for natural rubber in Qingdao decreased by 3.71 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.57 percentage points. The inbound rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 0.73 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.32 percentage points [8]. - In the week ending August 22, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of domestic semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.87%, a slight week - on - week increase of 2.76 percentage points and a significant year - on - year decrease of 7.81 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.97%, a slight week - on - week increase of 2.35 percentage points and a significant year - on - year increase of 7.01 percentage points. During the period, the production schedules of the overhauled enterprises basically returned to normal operation, driving a restorative increase in the weekly capacity utilization rate, and the enterprises basically maintained normal sales [8]. - In July 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 2.591 million and 2.593 million vehicles respectively, a month - on - month decrease of 7.3% and 10.7% and a year - on - year increase of 13.3% and 14.7% respectively. From January to July 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 18.235 million and 18.269 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.7% and 12% respectively, and the growth rates of production and sales were 0.2 and 0.6 percentage points higher than those from January to June [9]. - In July 2025, China's automobile exports were 575,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 22.6%. From January to July 2025, China's automobile exports were 3.68 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 12.8% [9]. - In July 2025, the sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was about 83,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 15% and an increase of about 42% compared with 58,300 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to July, the cumulative sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was about 622,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 11% [9]. Methanol - In the week ending August 22, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was maintained at 80.65%, a slight week - on - week increase of 1.65%, a slight month - on - month decrease of 1.01%, and a slight year - on - year increase of 4.82%. The average weekly methanol production in China reached 1.8974 million tons, a slight week - on - week increase of 34,100 tons, a slight month - on - month decrease of 1,500 tons, and a significant increase of 150,000 tons compared with 1.7474 million tons in the same period last year [10]. - In the week ending August 22, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was maintained at 30.45%, a slight week - on - week increase of 0.32%. The operating rate of dimethyl ether was maintained at 8.80%, a slight week - on - week decrease of 0.37%. The acetic acid operating rate was maintained at 85.68%, a slight week - on - week decrease of 0.88%. The MTBE operating rate was maintained at 55.12%, with a week - on - week increase of 0%. The average operating load of domestic coal - (methanol) to olefin plants was 79.30%, a slight week - on - week decrease of 0.58 percentage points and a slight month - on - month increase of 2.88% [10]. - As of August 22, 2025, the futures margin profit of domestic methanol to olefins was - 172 yuan/ton, a slight week - on - week decline of 20 yuan/ton and a slight month - on - month increase of 31 yuan/ton [10]. - In the week ending August 22, 2025, the port methanol inventory in East and South China was maintained at 934,200 tons, a slight week - on - week increase of 43,100 tons, a significant month - on - month increase of 347,100 tons, and a significant year - on - year increase of 144,600 tons. As of the week of August 21, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory in China reached 310,900 tons, a slight week - on - week increase of 15,200 tons, a slight month - on - month decrease of 29,000 tons, and a significant decrease of 99,700 tons compared with 410,600 tons in the same period last year [11]. Crude Oil - In the week ending August 15, 2025, the number of active oil drilling platforms in the United States was 412, a slight week - on - week increase of 1 and a decrease of 71 compared with the same period last year. The average daily crude oil production in the United States was 13.382 million barrels, a slight week - on - week increase of 55,000 barrels per day and a slight year - on - year decrease of 18,000 barrels per day [11]. - In the week ending August 15, 2025, the U.S. commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 421 million barrels, a significant week - on - week decrease of 6.014 million barrels and a significant year - on - year decrease of 5.345 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, reached 23.47 million barrels, a slight week - on - week increase of 419,000 barrels. The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory reached 403 million barrels, a slight week - on - week increase of 223,000 barrels. The U.S. refinery operating rate was maintained at 96.6%, a slight week - on - week increase of 0.2 percentage points, a slight month - on - month increase of 1.1 percentage points, and a significant year - on - year increase of 4.3 percentage points [12]. - As of August 19, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were maintained at 120,209 contracts, a significant week - on - week increase of 3,467 contracts and a significant decrease of 62,961 contracts or 34.37% compared with the July average of 183,170 contracts. As of August 19, 2025, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were maintained at 176,893 contracts, a significant week - on - week decrease of 22,927 contracts and a significant decrease of 43,183 contracts or 19.62% compared with the July average of 220,076 contracts. Overall, the net long positions in the WTI crude oil futures market decreased significantly month - on - month, and the net long positions in the Brent crude oil futures market also decreased significantly month - on - month [13]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,900 yuan/ton | - 50 yuan/ton | 15,760 yuan/ton | - 125 yuan/ton | - 860 yuan/ton | + 75 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,270 yuan/ton | - 25 yuan/ton | 2,372 yuan/ton | - 23 yuan/ton | - 102 yuan/ton | - 2 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 470.2 yuan/barrel | - 0.5 yuan/barrel | 479.7 yuan/barrel | - 16.4 yuan/barrel | - 9.5 yuan/barrel | + 15.9 yuan/barrel | [14] 3.3 Related Charts - Rubber: The related charts include the rubber basis, rubber 9 - 1 spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, all - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [15][17][19] - Methanol: The related charts include the methanol basis, methanol 9 - 1 spread, methanol port inventory in China, methanol inland social inventory, methanol - to - olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [28][30][32] - Crude Oil: The related charts include the crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, U.S. commercial crude oil inventory, U.S. refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position holding change, and Brent crude oil net position holding change [40][42][44]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 黑色金属 | 日报 2025 年 8 月 27 日 煤焦日报 专业研究·创造价值 多空博弈，煤焦小幅回调 核心观点 一 产业资讯 焦炭：原材料焦煤市场多空分歧加大，带动焦炭期货高位整理。近期，随 着"反内卷"题材逐渐发酵，期货市场由此前的"焦煤供应收缩，支撑焦 炭上行"的成本端强预期，逐渐进入到现实验证环节，多空博弈逐渐激 烈。考虑到后续煤炭行业仍有可能进一步配合"反内卷"出台相关政策措 施，成本端消息面依然有望形成利好支撑，中长期来看焦炭或表现出易涨 难跌的特征。 焦煤：焦煤基本面并无明显变化，超产核查以及山西强降雨仍对供应产生 一定压制，但同时 93 大阅兵前焦化厂、钢厂受环保限产影响，焦煤需求 短期内也面临一定压力。此外，虽然"反内卷"政策影响已阶段性释放， 但后续煤炭行业仍将积极响应相关政策，有望带来新增消息面利好。综 上，现阶段焦煤多空因素交织，市场分歧加大，期货主力合约区间震荡运 行，考虑到反内卷影响，本轮焦煤回调空间或较为有限。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z ...

Report Core View - The success in the futures market lies in long - term survival rather than short - term huge profits. Traders should be aware of the risk of profit retracement and adopt a modest and retreat strategy when making profits [2][3] - To prevent profit retracement, one should use stop - loss as a shield, position as a formation, discipline as an order, and self - reflection as a teacher [3] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned Summary According to Related Catalog - The futures market is volatile, and investors often pursue high - leverage and heavy - position trading at the beginning, ignoring the risk of profit retracement and the need for stop - profit rules, which can lead to losses [2] - History shows that wise people like Zhang Liang and Tang He knew when to retreat. In the futures market, traders should learn from them and think about the risk of retracement during profitable periods [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The domestic Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) futures markets are expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend in the short - term and intraday, and a volatile trend in the medium - term, mainly due to the dominance of bearish fundamentals [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 General Information - The time - period definitions are: short - term is within one week, medium - term is from two weeks to one month, and the concepts of "volatilely strong/weak" only apply to intraday views [1][4]. - For varieties with night trading, the starting price is the night - trading closing price; for those without, it's the previous day's closing price. The ending price is the day - trading closing price of the current day, used to calculate the price change [2]. - A decline greater than 1% is considered a fall, 0 - 1% is volatilely weak, a rise of 0 - 1% is volatilely strong, and a rise greater than 1% is a rise [3]. 3.2 Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term and medium - term views are volatile, and the intraday view is volatilely weak, with an overall reference view of weak operation [1][5]. - **Core Logic**: The domestic Shanghai rubber futures market is dominated by supply - demand fundamentals. Currently, Southeast Asian and domestic rubber - producing areas are in the peak tapping season, leading to high supply pressure. The domestic tire industry has reduced inventory, lower operating loads, and受阻 export growth. After the digestion of macro - bullish expectations, bearish fundamentals prevail. On Tuesday night, the 2601 contract of Shanghai rubber futures closed 0.06% lower at 15,965 yuan/ton and is expected to maintain a volatilely weak trend on Wednesday [5]. 3.3 Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term and medium - term views are volatile, and the intraday view is volatilely weak, with an overall reference view of weak operation [1][7]. - **Core Logic**: The domestic synthetic rubber futures market is also dominated by supply - demand fundamentals. The domestic synthetic rubber plant load is stable with a slight increase in supply pressure. The domestic tire industry has reduced inventory, lower operating loads, and受阻 export growth. After the digestion of macro - bullish expectations, bearish fundamentals prevail. On Tuesday night, the 2510 contract of synthetic rubber futures closed 0.71% lower at 11,895 yuan/ton and is expected to maintain a volatilely weak trend on Wednesday [7].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The power coal market is expected to shift from a "strong reality" logic to a "weak expectation" logic, with coal prices potentially peaking in the short - term. However, supported by the "anti - involution" policy, the callback space for power coal in September is expected to be limited, and the overall market will maintain high - level volatile operation [5] Group 3: Summary According to the Catalog Variety View Reference - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of power coal spot are all "oscillation". The core logic is that the optimistic sentiment is fading, and the prices of medium and low - calorie coal have stabilized and declined [1] Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Commodity Futures Black Sector - For power coal spot, the reference view is "oscillation". As the off - season approaches, thermal coal demand will enter a seasonal decline phase, and there is no substantial positive news on the non - power end. The market focus is on the supply side. Under the "anti - involution" policy, although the actual scale of production capacity withdrawal needs verification, market expectations have improved, and there may be positive news on the supply side. The coal market may shift from "strong reality" to "weak expectation" logic, with limited downward space for coal prices in September [5]