期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 国债期货 | 日报 2025 年 12 月 11 日 国债期货 专业研究·创造价值 国债期货短期内震荡整理为主 核心观点 今日国债期货均震荡反弹。最新公布的通胀数据有所回升但表现仍较 弱，资金面流动性宽松，叠加美联储 12 月如期降息带动货币宽松政策空间 预期上升，本周以来国债期货震荡偏强。中长期来看，货币政策环境倾向于 宽松，国债期货的支撑力量较强。不过短期内降息的必要性有所不足，且明 年一季度国债集中供应带来一定压力，短期内国债期货上行动能有所不足。 总的来说，国债期货上有压力下有支撑，短期内以震荡整理为主。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明：本人具有中国期货 业协会授予的期货从业资格证 书，期货投资咨询资格证书， 本人承诺以勤勉的职业态度， 独立、客观地出具本报告。本 报告清晰准确地反映了本人的 研究观点。本人不会因本报告 中的具体推荐意见或观点而直 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate market shows a strengthening trend. The futures price of the main contract LC2605.GFE has increased, while the spot price has a slight increase. The negative basis has weakened, and the registered warehouse receipts have increased. The demand for lithium iron phosphate remains high [4][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the main contract LC2605.GFE is 98,880 yuan/ton, up 2,900 yuan/ton (+3.02%) from the previous day, and up 5,180 yuan/ton from the previous week. The settlement price is 97,900 yuan/ton, up 2,800 yuan/ton from the previous day and 4,580 yuan/ton from the previous week [5][7]. - **Lithium Concentrate**: The prices of Australian, Brazilian, Zimbabwean, and other regions' CIF China lithium concentrate have increased to varying degrees compared with the previous day and the previous week, while the prices of South African CIF China lithium ore and some lithium mica have decreased [7]. - **Lithium Carbonate and Lithium Hydroxide**: The price of domestic 99.5% electric lithium carbonate is 93,540 yuan/ton, up 900 yuan/ton from the previous day and down 420 yuan/ton from the previous week. The price of domestic 56.5% lithium hydroxide is 82,390 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan/ton from the previous day and down 70 yuan/ton from the previous week [7]. - **Ternary Materials and Related Products**: The prices of some ternary precursors and materials have changed slightly, with the price of ternary precursor (111) and ternary material (111, power, domestic) increasing [7]. 3.2 Related Charts - **Ore and Lithium Prices**: Charts show the price trends of lithium mica, lithium carbonate futures, lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, lithium carbonate basis, and lithium hydroxide - lithium carbonate spread [9]. - **Cathode & Ternary Materials**: Charts display the price trends of manganese - acid lithium, lithium iron phosphate, cobalt - acid lithium, ternary precursors, and ternary materials [11][14]. - **Other Related Data of Lithium Carbonate Futures**: Charts present the changes in the trading volume, open interest, and registered warehouse receipts of lithium carbonate futures [16][17].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View The supply - demand fundamentals of 20 - rubber futures show "supply disruptions, weak demand, and rising inventory", and the long - term supply expansion pressure brought by the adjustment of delivery rules may limit the upward space of rubber prices in the future. It is expected that the futures of 20 - standard rubber may maintain a stable and fluctuating trend in the future [2][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply Side - The global rubber market presents a new pattern of "dominated by Southeast Asia and rising in Africa". From January to September 2025, the total output of ANRPC member countries in Southeast Asia reached 8.167 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.60%. Although the supply is generally sufficient during the peak tapping season, there are short - term supply fluctuations due to weather disturbances. In November this year, tapping in southern Thailand was hindered by floods, and local output in some parts of Vietnam was also affected by rainfall or cooling. In China, the rubber - tapping season in southern Yunnan has ended, and Hainan will gradually stop tapping in mid - December. Meanwhile, the African rubber industry has risen rapidly in recent years, and the mechanized rubber plantations in countries like Côte d'Ivoire have significantly expanded production capacity [3]. Demand Side - The downstream demand of the domestic rubber market shows the characteristics of "strong domestic demand, weak overseas demand, and structural differentiation". As the main consumer of 20 - rubber, the operating load of tire enterprises has rebounded recently. As of the week of December 5, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire industry was 68.33%, a week - on - week increase of 2.33 percentage points but a year - on - year decrease of 10.59 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of domestic all - steel tire enterprises was 64%, a week - on - week increase of 1.25 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.87 percentage points. However, due to the weak recovery of terminal demand and the slowdown of real estate and infrastructure investment growth, there is still a negative impact on 20 - standard rubber. Overseas markets are weak. In October, China's tire exports decreased both year - on - year and month - on - month. The EU's anti - dumping policy on Chinese tires and the US tariff pressure have reduced the orders of export - oriented tire enterprises, dragging down the external demand for 20 - rubber. From January to September 2025, the total consumption of ANRPC member countries was 8.1833 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.28% [4]. Inventory - As of December 7, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 488,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.72%. Among them, the bonded inventory was 73,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9%, and the general trade inventory was 414,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.67%. The continuous increase in rubber inventory highlights the weak supply - demand structure and drags down the rebound of 20 - standard rubber futures [5]. Policy Impact - The Shanghai International Energy Exchange has included 20 - rubber substitutes in the physical delivery scope, which significantly expands the delivery supply. It extends the deliverable resources from traditional Southeast Asian rubber to African production areas, effectively alleviating the previous problem of short - term shortage of delivery warehouse receipts, reducing the delivery premium and the fluctuation range of the basis. In the long run, this adjustment will reshape the pricing logic, weaken the short - term price increase logic relying on supply disruptions, reduce price volatility, and create cross - regional arbitrage opportunities [6].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货股指期货早报（2025 年 12 月 11 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏强 核心逻辑：昨日各股指均震荡整理。沪深京三市全天成交额 1.79 万亿元，较上日成交额缩量 1260 亿 元。政策面指出 2026 年将继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，释放出积极信号。 政策利好预期逐渐发酵，市场风险偏好回升，不过仍需等待后续中央经济工作会议出台更多政策细 节。短期内由于宏观经济数据仍具有较强韧性，政治局会议对总量政策的表述未超预期，股指短线仍 存震荡整固的需求，目前仍位于震荡区间以内。总的来说，政策利好预期逐渐发酵，短期内股指震荡 偏强为主。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2512 | ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - China's economy shows resilience, with the IMF predicting growth rates of 5.0% in 2025 and 4.5% in 2026, up 0.2 and 0.3 percentage points from the October forecast [2][16] - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points for the third time this year, lowering the target range for the federal funds rate to 3.50%–3.75%, and will start a monthly short - term Treasury purchase plan of about $40 billion from December 12 [3][14] - The Asian Development Bank raised the regional economic growth forecast for 2025 to 5.1% and slightly increased the 2026 forecast to 4.6% [17] 3. Summary by Directory Macro Data Overview - GDP growth in Q3 2025 was 4.8% year - on - year, down from 5.2% in the previous quarter but up from 4.6% in the same period last year [1] - In November 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up from 49.0% in the previous month but down from 50.3% in the same period last year; the non - manufacturing PMI for business activities was 49.5%, down from 50.1% in the previous month and 50.0% in the same period last year [1] - In October 2025, social financing scale increment was 816.1 billion yuan, down from 3529.9 billion yuan in the previous month but up from 1412 billion yuan in the same period last year [1] - In November 2025, CPI rose 0.7% year - on - year, up from 0.2% in the previous month; PPI fell 2.2% year - on - year, down from a 2.1% decline in the previous month [1][2] Commodity Investment Reference Comprehensive - China's November CPI was in line with expectations, and the increase was mainly driven by the change of food prices from decline to rise. PPI was slightly lower than expected, with a 0.1% month - on - month increase [2] - The Fed cut interest rates and will start a short - term Treasury purchase plan. The Shanghai Futures Exchange adjusted the margin and price limit for silver futures contracts [2][3] - The container shipping index (European route) futures on the Shanghai International Energy Exchange mostly rose, with the February contract leading the gain [3] Metals - International precious metal futures generally rose due to the Fed's interest rate cut. Indonesia may impose export tariffs on gold. Copper production at some Chilean mines changed in October [5] - As of December 10, the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF decreased. The inventory of some metals on the London Metal Exchange changed significantly on December 9 [5][6] Coal, Coke, Steel and Minerals - Argentina approved a copper mining project, and the copper production of Escondida Mine in Chile increased in October [8] Energy and Chemicals - The seizure of a Venezuelan oil tanker by the US increased short - term supply risks, and the Fed's interest rate cut pushed up oil prices, but global oversupply limited the increase [9] - EIA adjusted its forecast for US crude oil production in 2025 and 2026. US natural gas inventory decreased last week [9] - Saudi companies will develop oil and gas fields in Syria, and an Iraqi oil field resumed production [10] Agricultural Products - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs will launch a consumption promotion activity for agricultural products. US soybean crushing volume in October and Malaysia's palm oil situation were reported [11][12] Financial News Compilation Open Market - On December 10, the central bank conducted 189.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 110.5 billion yuan [13] Key News - The Fed cut interest rates, started a short - term Treasury purchase plan, and the dot - plot predicted further rate cuts in 2026 and 2027 [14][15] - China's November CPI rose and PPI fell. The IMF and ADB raised their economic growth forecasts for China and Asia respectively [16][17] - The Ministry of Finance will renew 750 billion yuan of special Treasury bonds and issued 7 billion yuan of RMB Treasury bonds in Hong Kong [17][18] - Some banks' business operations and market - related events such as the launch of green foreign debt business in Shenzhen and the release of a new CDS index were reported [19][20] Bond Market Review - China's bond market continued to be warm, with most interest - rate bond yields falling and Treasury bond futures rising. Money market rates mostly declined [23][24][25] - European bond yields rose, while US bond yields fell [27][28] Foreign Exchange Market Express - The on - shore RMB appreciated against the US dollar, and the US dollar index fell [29] Research Report Highlights - CITIC Securities believes that the RMB's recent appreciation is due to internal economic fundamentals and external factors, which will have an impact on exports and imports [30] - Huatai Securities believes that the global central bank's policy stance may diverge in the next two weeks, and the global manufacturing cycle is expected to recover [30] Today's Reminder - On December 11, a large number of bonds will be listed, issued, have payments made, and have principal and interest repaid [31][32] Stock Market Key News - A - shares recovered after hitting the bottom. The Shanghai Composite Index fell slightly, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose. Real estate stocks rose in the afternoon [33] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose, with property stocks performing strongly. Southbound funds had a net outflow [33]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore market is expected to experience wide - range oscillations. In the short - term, favorable factors have pushed the ore price to a high level, but the market fundamentals are weak due to strong supply and weak demand, and the upward driving force is not strong. The price will maintain high - level oscillations, and attention should be paid to the performance of steel [1][2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2605 contract, the short - term, medium - term trend is "oscillating", the intraday trend is "oscillating weakly", and the overall view is "wide - range oscillation". The core logic is that short - term favorable factors have fermented, leading to the high - level operation of the ore price [1] Market Driving Logic - The fermentation of spot structural contradictions and the expectation of real - estate favorable policies support the ore price to return to a high level in the short term. However, the demand for iron ore is continuously declining as steel mills' end - year maintenance leads to a continuous decrease in ore terminal consumption. At the same time, domestic port arrivals have decreased while overseas miners' shipments have increased, and both are at relatively high levels within the year. Although domestic ore supply is shrinking, there is still supply pressure. Overall, the supply - demand situation shows strong supply and weak demand, and the market fundamentals are weak, but the price remains high due to short - term favorable factors [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term prices of soybean - related futures will maintain a weakly oscillating pattern, with far - month contracts being weaker. The short - term price of palm oil futures has turned to weakly oscillating. [5][6][7] 3. Summary by Variety 3.1. Soybean Meal (M) - **Price Trend**: Short - term: weakly oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: weakly oscillating; Reference view: weakly oscillating. [5] - **Core Logic**: Last night, the price of US soybean futures rebounded from a low level due to improved export demand. Argentina's reduction of export tariffs on soybeans and their products may enhance its export competitiveness and squeeze the market share of US soybeans. Despite the USDA report keeping the 2025/26 US soybean ending stocks at 290 million bushels, there are still concerns about South American supply pressure. The domestic market shows conflicting signals. Spot prices have stopped falling, but the expectation of accelerated customs clearance for imported soybeans has intensified the expectation of loose long - term supply. Near - month contracts are relatively resistant to decline, while the cost support for far - month contracts is significantly weakened. [5][6] 3.2. Palm Oil (P) - **Price Trend**: Short - term: weakly oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: weakly oscillating; Reference view: weakly oscillating. [7] - **Core Logic**: The MPOB report shows that Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of November soared 13% month - on - month to 2.84 million tons, far exceeding market expectations and reaching a six - and - a - half - year high, mainly due to a cliff - like 28.1% decline in exports to 1.213 million tons. Domestic palm oil inventory has accumulated to 719,000 tons due to increased imports and weakening demand. Overall demand is lower than expected, with the growth rate of catering consumption slowing down and the procurement volume of small - package oils down 15% year - on - year. The narrowing of the soybean - palm oil price spread to 500 yuan/ton has suppressed the blending demand for palm oil. The domestic palm oil market is currently in a stage dominated by "weak reality", and the process of destocking high inventory determines the price movement center. The sentiment in the oil market has weakened. In the future, attention should be paid to Indonesia's biodiesel policy trends and the procurement rhythm of major importing countries. [7]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 12 月 11 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2602 | 偏强 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 观望 | 降息落地，美元美债收益率走弱 | | 铜 | 2601 | 强势 | 强势 | 强势 | 长线看强 | 宏观宽松，矿端减产，降息落地 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：观望 核心逻辑：今日凌晨美联储 12 月议息会议落地，降息 25 个基点符合预 ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 2: Core View - The short - term probability of interest rate cuts is low, while the medium - and long - term easing expectations still exist. Treasury bond futures are under both upward pressure and downward support, and will mainly fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2603 variety, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", the intraday view is "weakening", and the reference view is "oscillation and consolidation". The core logic is that the short - term probability of interest rate cuts is low, and there are still medium - and long - term easing expectations [1] Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is "weakening", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation and consolidation". The core logic is that treasury bond futures oscillated and rebounded yesterday. In the medium and long term, a moderately loose monetary policy will continue to be implemented next year, and with a strong expectation of the Fed's interest rate cuts, the monetary policy environment will be loose, and there is an expectation of a cut in policy interest rates, providing strong support for treasury bond futures. However, there is a lack of short - term necessity for interest rate cuts, and the concentrated supply of treasury bonds in the first quarter of next year will bring certain pressure, resulting in insufficient upward momentum for treasury bond futures in the short term [5]

期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 观点参考 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 12 月 11 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡思路 | 市场情绪低迷，焦煤持续下挫 | | 焦炭 | 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡思路 | 向上驱动不足，焦炭弱势运行 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条 ...