Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The domestic Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) futures markets are expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend in the short - term and intraday, and a volatile trend in the medium - term, mainly due to the dominance of bearish fundamentals [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 General Information - The time - period definitions are: short - term is within one week, medium - term is from two weeks to one month, and the concepts of "volatilely strong/weak" only apply to intraday views [1][4]. - For varieties with night trading, the starting price is the night - trading closing price; for those without, it's the previous day's closing price. The ending price is the day - trading closing price of the current day, used to calculate the price change [2]. - A decline greater than 1% is considered a fall, 0 - 1% is volatilely weak, a rise of 0 - 1% is volatilely strong, and a rise greater than 1% is a rise [3]. 3.2 Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term and medium - term views are volatile, and the intraday view is volatilely weak, with an overall reference view of weak operation [1][5]. - **Core Logic**: The domestic Shanghai rubber futures market is dominated by supply - demand fundamentals. Currently, Southeast Asian and domestic rubber - producing areas are in the peak tapping season, leading to high supply pressure. The domestic tire industry has reduced inventory, lower operating loads, and受阻 export growth. After the digestion of macro - bullish expectations, bearish fundamentals prevail. On Tuesday night, the 2601 contract of Shanghai rubber futures closed 0.06% lower at 15,965 yuan/ton and is expected to maintain a volatilely weak trend on Wednesday [5]. 3.3 Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term and medium - term views are volatile, and the intraday view is volatilely weak, with an overall reference view of weak operation [1][7]. - **Core Logic**: The domestic synthetic rubber futures market is also dominated by supply - demand fundamentals. The domestic synthetic rubber plant load is stable with a slight increase in supply pressure. The domestic tire industry has reduced inventory, lower operating loads, and受阻 export growth. After the digestion of macro - bullish expectations, bearish fundamentals prevail. On Tuesday night, the 2510 contract of synthetic rubber futures closed 0.71% lower at 11,895 yuan/ton and is expected to maintain a volatilely weak trend on Wednesday [7].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The power coal market is expected to shift from a "strong reality" logic to a "weak expectation" logic, with coal prices potentially peaking in the short - term. However, supported by the "anti - involution" policy, the callback space for power coal in September is expected to be limited, and the overall market will maintain high - level volatile operation [5] Group 3: Summary According to the Catalog Variety View Reference - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of power coal spot are all "oscillation". The core logic is that the optimistic sentiment is fading, and the prices of medium and low - calorie coal have stabilized and declined [1] Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Commodity Futures Black Sector - For power coal spot, the reference view is "oscillation". As the off - season approaches, thermal coal demand will enter a seasonal decline phase, and there is no substantial positive news on the non - power end. The market focus is on the supply side. Under the "anti - involution" policy, although the actual scale of production capacity withdrawal needs verification, market expectations have improved, and there may be positive news on the supply side. The coal market may shift from "strong reality" to "weak expectation" logic, with limited downward space for coal prices in September [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The report predicts that the domestic crude oil futures contract 2510 will run weakly in the short - term, with an intraday and short - term view of oscillating weakly and a medium - term view of oscillating. Due to factors such as slow demand growth, increased supply, and the digestion of macro - positive expectations, the bearish fundamentals are dominant [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Content - **Time - period Views**: For the crude oil 2510 contract, the short - term view is oscillating, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the intraday view is oscillating weakly, with an overall reference view of weak operation [1]. - **Core Logic**: The International Energy Agency (IEA) reports that next year the global crude oil market will face a record supply surplus due to slow demand growth and a surge in supply. Although the IEA has raised the global crude oil demand data for this year and next, the demand growth rate has declined. Crude oil inventories will accumulate at a rate of 2.96 million barrels per day, exceeding the average accumulation rate during the 2020 pandemic. After the digestion of macro - positive expectations, the bearish fundamentals take the lead. On Tuesday night, the domestic crude oil futures 2510 contract showed an oscillating and weakly - running trend, with the futures price dropping by 2.19% to 486.8 yuan per barrel. It is expected that on Wednesday, the contract will maintain an oscillating and weakly - running trend [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint The report is a daily arbitrage data report for futures varieties from Baocheng Futures on August 27, 2025, presenting detailed data on basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - commodity spreads for various futures products. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Power Coal - **Basis**: On August 26, 2025, the basis was - 105.4 yuan/ton, compared to - 97.4 yuan/ton on August 25 and previous trading days [2]. - **Inter - period spreads**: The spreads of 5 - month to 1 - month, 9 - month to 1 - month, and 9 - month to 5 - month were all 0.0 yuan/ton from August 20 to 26, 2025 [2]. 3.2 Energy and Chemicals 3.2.1 Energy Commodities - **Basis**: For fuel oil, INE crude oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt, the basis data from August 20 to 26, 2025, are presented, such as the basis of INE crude oil being 11.95 yuan/ton on August 26 [6]. 3.2.2 Chemical Commodities - **Basis**: From August 20 to 26, 2025, the basis of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, and PP are provided. For example, the basis of rubber was - 935 yuan/ton on August 26 [8]. - **Inter - period spreads**: The 5 - month to 1 - month, 9 - month to 1 - month, and 9 - month to 5 - month spreads of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are given. For instance, the 5 - month to 1 - month spread of rubber is 105 yuan/ton [10]. - **Inter - commodity spreads**: The spreads of LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3 * methanol from August 20 to 26, 2025, are presented. For example, the LLDPE - PVC spread was 2401 yuan/ton on August 26 [10]. 3.3 Black Metals - **Inter - period spreads**: The 5 - month to 1 - month, 9 - month (10) to 1 - month, and 9 - month (10) to 5 - month spreads of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are shown. For example, the 5 - month to 1 - month spread of rebar is 36.0 yuan/ton [19]. - **Inter - commodity spreads**: The ratios of rebar to iron ore, rebar to coke, coke to coking coal, and the spread of rebar - hot rolled coil from August 20 to 26, 2025, are provided. For example, the rebar/iron ore ratio was 4.01 on August 26 [19]. - **Basis**: The basis of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from August 20 to 26, 2025, are presented. For example, the basis of rebar was 177.0 yuan/ton on August 26 [20]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Domestic Market - **Basis**: The basis of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from August 20 to 26, 2025, are provided. For example, the basis of copper was 310 yuan/ton on August 26 [27]. 3.4.2 London Market - **LME Premium/Discount**: On August 26, 2025, the LME premium/discount of copper was (84.82), aluminum was 3.25, etc. [35]. - **Shanghai - London Ratio**: The Shanghai - London ratios of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin were 8.07, 7.92, 7.94, 8.45, 7.99, and 7.96 respectively on August 26, 2025 [35]. - **CIF and Domestic Spot Prices**: The CIF and domestic spot prices of these non - ferrous metals are given, along with the import profit and loss data on August 26, 2025 [35]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, corn, etc. from August 20 to 26, 2025, are presented. For example, the basis of soybeans No.1 was 86 on August 26 [39]. - **Inter - period spreads**: The 5 - month to 1 - month, 9 - month to 1 - month, and 9 - month to 5 - month spreads of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, etc. are provided [39]. - **Inter - commodity spreads**: The ratios of soybeans No.1 to corn, soybeans No.2 to corn, soybean oil to soybean meal, and spreads of soybean meal - rapeseed meal, soybean oil - palm oil, etc. from August 20 to 26, 2025, are given [39]. 3.6 Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 on August 20 to 26, 2025, are presented. For example, the basis of CSI 300 was 3.59 on August 26 [51]. - **Inter - period spreads**: The spreads of next - month to current - month and next - quarter to current - quarter for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are provided [53].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 资讯早班车 资讯早班车-2025-08-27 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 20250715 | 2025/06 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 5.20 | 5.40 | 4.70 | | 20250731 | 2025/07 | 制造业 PMI | % | 49.30 | 49.70 | 49.40 | | 20250731 | 2025/07 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活 动 | % | 50.10 | 50.50 | 50.20 | | | | 社会融资规模增量:当 | | | | | | 20250814 | 2025/07 | 月值 | 亿元 | | 11320.00 42251.00 | 7707.00 | | 20250813 | 2025/07 | M0(流通中的现金):同 | % | 11.80 | 12.00 | 12.00 | | | | 比 | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The methanol 2601 contract is expected to run weakly, with short - term, medium - term and intraday trends being oscillatory, oscillatory, and oscillatory - weak respectively [1][5]. - As the previous macro - driving force weakens, methanol returns to a market dominated by a weak supply - demand structure. The supply pressure at home and abroad is large, downstream demand is in the off - season, and the weak supply - demand structure causes the price center to decline. Affected by the slight decline in domestic coal futures prices and other factors, the methanol 2601 contract on the domestic futures market maintained an oscillatory - weak trend on Tuesday night, with the futures price closing 1.24% lower at 2383 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory - weak trend on Wednesday [5]. Summary by Related Catalog Variety Morning Meeting Minutes - For the methanol 2601 contract, the short - term view is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, the intraday view is oscillatory - weak, and the reference view is weak operation. The core logic is that bearish factors suppress the price, leading to an oscillatory - weak trend [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Commodity Futures Energy and Chemical Sector - The intraday view of methanol is oscillatory - weak, and the medium - term view is oscillatory. The reference view is weak operation. The core reason is that the weakening of the previous macro - driving force makes the market return to be dominated by a weak supply - demand structure. The supply pressure is large, the demand is in the off - season, and the price center is facing a downward shift. On Tuesday night, the domestic methanol 2601 contract futures price closed 1.24% lower at 2383 yuan/ton, and it is expected to maintain an oscillatory - weak trend on Wednesday [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating Core Views of the Report - Gold: In the short - term, it's expected to oscillate; in the medium - term, also oscillate; and on the day, it's expected to be weakly oscillating. The suggested approach is to wait and see. The core logic is that the growing expectation of interest rate cuts is favorable for the gold price, but there is significant technical pressure at the upper limit of the oscillation range [1][3]. - Copper: In the short - term, it's expected to rise; in the medium - term, oscillate; and on the day, it's expected to be strongly oscillating. The suggested approach is to be bullish in the short - term. The core logic is that the overseas macro situation is warming up, China is approaching the peak season, and industrial support is strengthening [1][5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Price Trend**: After Fed Chair Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting last Friday, the gold price has been on an upward trend, and New York gold is approaching the $3450 mark, which is the upper limit of the oscillation range since the second quarter [3]. - **Market Expectation**: The market's expectation of interest rate cuts may have been reflected in the price, and currently, the market is more likely to price in two interest rate cuts this year [3]. - **Demand Change**: The recovery of market risk appetite has led to a continuous strong performance in the equity market, reducing the safe - haven demand for gold [3]. - **Technical Pressure**: Without other favorable factors, it's expected that the gold price will face significant technical pressure at the upper limit of the oscillation range [3]. Copper - **Price and Position Change**: The copper price stabilized and rebounded last night, and the open interest increased accordingly [5]. - **Macro Factors**: Fed Chair Powell's dovish speech at the Jackson Hole meeting increased market risk appetite, which is favorable for the copper price; the rebound of the US dollar index and the cooling of the domestic commodity market are negative factors for the copper price [5]. - **Industrial Factors**: As China is approaching the peak season, the social inventory of electrolytic copper is decreasing, and industrial support is gradually strengthening, so the copper price is expected to maintain a strong performance [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views for TL2509 are shock, shock, and shock - weak respectively, with an overall view of shock due to the decreased possibility of a full - scale interest rate cut and the rising risk appetite in the stock market [1]. - For the TL, T, TF, and TS varieties, the intraday view is shock - weak, the medium - term view is shock, and the reference view is shock. The overall situation is that treasury bond futures are expected to maintain a bottom - shock operation in the short term [5]. Group 3: Summaries Based on Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL2509, the short - term view is shock, the medium - term view is shock, the intraday view is shock - weak, and the overall view is shock. The core logic is the decreased possibility of a full - scale interest rate cut and the rising risk appetite in the stock market [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Yesterday, all treasury bond futures fluctuated and rose slightly. Due to the anchoring effect of policy interest rates, the upward space for market interest rates is limited, so treasury bond futures rebounded from the bottom. However, the upward momentum of treasury bond futures is expected to be insufficient in the short term. From the policy perspective, monetary policy is mainly structurally loose, focusing on boosting consumption and supporting scientific and technological innovation - related fields, and the possibility of a full - scale interest rate cut has decreased. From the perspective of capital preference, the risk appetite in the stock market has been rising recently, and the profit - making effect has attracted funds into the stock market, reducing the demand for funds to buy treasury bonds. In general, treasury bond futures will maintain a bottom - shock operation in the short term [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The overall view of the financial futures stock index sector is that the short - term stock market sentiment is positive and optimistic, with the index showing a strong - oscillating trend, and the medium - term view is upward [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2509, the short - term view is oscillating, the medium - term view is upward, the intraday view is strongly oscillating, and the reference view is upward. The core logic is that the positive policy expectations provide strong support [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view of IF, IH, IC, and IM is strongly oscillating, the medium - term view is upward, and the reference view is upward. Yesterday, each stock index oscillated and consolidated within a narrow range. The total trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2709.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 467.1 billion yuan from the previous day. Some stocks have achieved large increases, leading to an increase in the willingness of profit - taking funds to stop profits, so the index has a need for technical adjustment, and there is a characteristic of capital rotation in previously rising sectors. The current stock market sentiment is still optimistic. Policy - side positive expectations provide strong support, and continuous capital inflows drive valuation repair. Anti - involution and consumption - promotion policies optimize the supply - demand structure, promote a moderate recovery of the price index, and drive a positive cycle. Due to the downward trend of market interest rates and loose liquidity, incremental funds from insurance, social security, margin trading, and private equity continue to flow into the stock market, driving the valuation repair market [5].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The short - term, mid - term, and intraday views of rebar 2510 are to be cautious about the pressure at the MA10 line, with short - term and intraday being weakly volatile and mid - term being volatile. The core logic is that the fundamentals are poor and steel prices are under pressure [2]. - In the short term, under the dominance of negative factors, steel prices are expected to continue the weakly volatile trend, and attention should be paid to demand changes [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Content Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2510, the short - term view is weakly volatile, the mid - term is volatile, and the intraday is weakly volatile. The view is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA10 line, and the core logic is the poor fundamentals putting pressure on steel prices [2]. Market Driving Logic - The supply of rebar has shrunk, but the sustainability of profit per ton is questionable. Demand is weak, and high - frequency indicators are at a low level. Under the situation of weak supply and demand, the fundamentals of rebar in the off - season are still poor, but the cost increase restricts the downward space. In the short term, steel prices are expected to continue the weakly volatile trend, and attention should be paid to demand changes [3].