1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the content. 2. Core Views - The domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 on Wednesday showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, fluctuating weakly, and closing slightly lower. The price center of the contract during the session moved down slightly to 15,760 yuan/ton. At the close, the price closed 1.35% lower at 15,760 yuan/ton. The backwardation of the 9 - 1 spread converged to 955 yuan/ton. With the divergence between long and short in the rubber market and the improvement of macro - expectations competing with the negative industrial factors, it is expected that the domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 may maintain a volatile consolidation trend in the future [4]. - The domestic methanol futures contract 2601 on Wednesday showed a trend of increasing volume and positions, fluctuating weakly, and falling slightly. The contract price rose to a maximum of 2,396 yuan/ton and dropped to a minimum of 2,371 yuan/ton. At the close, it fell 1.70% to 2,372 yuan/ton. The backwardation of the 9 - 1 spread widened to 125 yuan/ton. Affected by the decline in domestic coal futures prices and the weak supply - demand structure of methanol, it is expected that the domestic methanol futures contract 2601 may maintain a weakly volatile trend in the future [4]. - The domestic crude oil futures contract 2510 on Wednesday showed a trend of increasing volume and positions, weakening, and closing sharply lower. The contract price rose to a maximum of 493.3 yuan/barrel and dropped to a minimum of 478.0 yuan/barrel. At the close, it fell 3.62% to 479.7 yuan/barrel. As the South American geopolitical factors are digested, crude oil has returned to the market dominated by the weak supply - demand fundamentals. It is expected that the domestic crude oil futures contract 2510 may maintain a weakly volatile trend in the future [5]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of August 24, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 606,200 tons, a decrease of 10,500 tons or 1.71% from the previous period. The bonded area inventory was 73,300 tons, a decrease of 4.70%, and the general trade inventory was 532,900 tons, a decrease of 1.28%. The inbound rate of the sample bonded warehouses for natural rubber in Qingdao decreased by 3.71 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.57 percentage points. The inbound rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 0.73 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.32 percentage points [8]. - In the week ending August 22, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of domestic semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.87%, a slight week - on - week increase of 2.76 percentage points and a significant year - on - year decrease of 7.81 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.97%, a slight week - on - week increase of 2.35 percentage points and a significant year - on - year increase of 7.01 percentage points. During the period, the production schedules of the overhauled enterprises basically returned to normal operation, driving a restorative increase in the weekly capacity utilization rate, and the enterprises basically maintained normal sales [8]. - In July 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 2.591 million and 2.593 million vehicles respectively, a month - on - month decrease of 7.3% and 10.7% and a year - on - year increase of 13.3% and 14.7% respectively. From January to July 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 18.235 million and 18.269 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.7% and 12% respectively, and the growth rates of production and sales were 0.2 and 0.6 percentage points higher than those from January to June [9]. - In July 2025, China's automobile exports were 575,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 22.6%. From January to July 2025, China's automobile exports were 3.68 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 12.8% [9]. - In July 2025, the sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was about 83,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 15% and an increase of about 42% compared with 58,300 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to July, the cumulative sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was about 622,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 11% [9]. Methanol - In the week ending August 22, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was maintained at 80.65%, a slight week - on - week increase of 1.65%, a slight month - on - month decrease of 1.01%, and a slight year - on - year increase of 4.82%. The average weekly methanol production in China reached 1.8974 million tons, a slight week - on - week increase of 34,100 tons, a slight month - on - month decrease of 1,500 tons, and a significant increase of 150,000 tons compared with 1.7474 million tons in the same period last year [10]. - In the week ending August 22, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was maintained at 30.45%, a slight week - on - week increase of 0.32%. The operating rate of dimethyl ether was maintained at 8.80%, a slight week - on - week decrease of 0.37%. The acetic acid operating rate was maintained at 85.68%, a slight week - on - week decrease of 0.88%. The MTBE operating rate was maintained at 55.12%, with a week - on - week increase of 0%. The average operating load of domestic coal - (methanol) to olefin plants was 79.30%, a slight week - on - week decrease of 0.58 percentage points and a slight month - on - month increase of 2.88% [10]. - As of August 22, 2025, the futures margin profit of domestic methanol to olefins was - 172 yuan/ton, a slight week - on - week decline of 20 yuan/ton and a slight month - on - month increase of 31 yuan/ton [10]. - In the week ending August 22, 2025, the port methanol inventory in East and South China was maintained at 934,200 tons, a slight week - on - week increase of 43,100 tons, a significant month - on - month increase of 347,100 tons, and a significant year - on - year increase of 144,600 tons. As of the week of August 21, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory in China reached 310,900 tons, a slight week - on - week increase of 15,200 tons, a slight month - on - month decrease of 29,000 tons, and a significant decrease of 99,700 tons compared with 410,600 tons in the same period last year [11]. Crude Oil - In the week ending August 15, 2025, the number of active oil drilling platforms in the United States was 412, a slight week - on - week increase of 1 and a decrease of 71 compared with the same period last year. The average daily crude oil production in the United States was 13.382 million barrels, a slight week - on - week increase of 55,000 barrels per day and a slight year - on - year decrease of 18,000 barrels per day [11]. - In the week ending August 15, 2025, the U.S. commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 421 million barrels, a significant week - on - week decrease of 6.014 million barrels and a significant year - on - year decrease of 5.345 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, reached 23.47 million barrels, a slight week - on - week increase of 419,000 barrels. The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory reached 403 million barrels, a slight week - on - week increase of 223,000 barrels. The U.S. refinery operating rate was maintained at 96.6%, a slight week - on - week increase of 0.2 percentage points, a slight month - on - month increase of 1.1 percentage points, and a significant year - on - year increase of 4.3 percentage points [12]. - As of August 19, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were maintained at 120,209 contracts, a significant week - on - week increase of 3,467 contracts and a significant decrease of 62,961 contracts or 34.37% compared with the July average of 183,170 contracts. As of August 19, 2025, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were maintained at 176,893 contracts, a significant week - on - week decrease of 22,927 contracts and a significant decrease of 43,183 contracts or 19.62% compared with the July average of 220,076 contracts. Overall, the net long positions in the WTI crude oil futures market decreased significantly month - on - month, and the net long positions in the Brent crude oil futures market also decreased significantly month - on - month [13]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,900 yuan/ton | - 50 yuan/ton | 15,760 yuan/ton | - 125 yuan/ton | - 860 yuan/ton | + 75 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,270 yuan/ton | - 25 yuan/ton | 2,372 yuan/ton | - 23 yuan/ton | - 102 yuan/ton | - 2 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 470.2 yuan/barrel | - 0.5 yuan/barrel | 479.7 yuan/barrel | - 16.4 yuan/barrel | - 9.5 yuan/barrel | + 15.9 yuan/barrel | [14] 3.3 Related Charts - Rubber: The related charts include the rubber basis, rubber 9 - 1 spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, all - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [15][17][19] - Methanol: The related charts include the methanol basis, methanol 9 - 1 spread, methanol port inventory in China, methanol inland social inventory, methanol - to - olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [28][30][32] - Crude Oil: The related charts include the crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, U.S. commercial crude oil inventory, U.S. refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position holding change, and Brent crude oil net position holding change [40][42][44]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 黑色金属 | 日报 2025 年 8 月 27 日 煤焦日报 专业研究·创造价值 多空博弈，煤焦小幅回调 核心观点 一 产业资讯 焦炭：原材料焦煤市场多空分歧加大，带动焦炭期货高位整理。近期，随 着"反内卷"题材逐渐发酵，期货市场由此前的"焦煤供应收缩，支撑焦 炭上行"的成本端强预期，逐渐进入到现实验证环节，多空博弈逐渐激 烈。考虑到后续煤炭行业仍有可能进一步配合"反内卷"出台相关政策措 施，成本端消息面依然有望形成利好支撑，中长期来看焦炭或表现出易涨 难跌的特征。 焦煤：焦煤基本面并无明显变化，超产核查以及山西强降雨仍对供应产生 一定压制，但同时 93 大阅兵前焦化厂、钢厂受环保限产影响，焦煤需求 短期内也面临一定压力。此外，虽然"反内卷"政策影响已阶段性释放， 但后续煤炭行业仍将积极响应相关政策，有望带来新增消息面利好。综 上，现阶段焦煤多空因素交织，市场分歧加大，期货主力合约区间震荡运 行，考虑到反内卷影响，本轮焦煤回调空间或较为有限。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z ...

Report Core View - The success in the futures market lies in long - term survival rather than short - term huge profits. Traders should be aware of the risk of profit retracement and adopt a modest and retreat strategy when making profits [2][3] - To prevent profit retracement, one should use stop - loss as a shield, position as a formation, discipline as an order, and self - reflection as a teacher [3] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned Summary According to Related Catalog - The futures market is volatile, and investors often pursue high - leverage and heavy - position trading at the beginning, ignoring the risk of profit retracement and the need for stop - profit rules, which can lead to losses [2] - History shows that wise people like Zhang Liang and Tang He knew when to retreat. In the futures market, traders should learn from them and think about the risk of retracement during profitable periods [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The domestic Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) futures markets are expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend in the short - term and intraday, and a volatile trend in the medium - term, mainly due to the dominance of bearish fundamentals [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 General Information - The time - period definitions are: short - term is within one week, medium - term is from two weeks to one month, and the concepts of "volatilely strong/weak" only apply to intraday views [1][4]. - For varieties with night trading, the starting price is the night - trading closing price; for those without, it's the previous day's closing price. The ending price is the day - trading closing price of the current day, used to calculate the price change [2]. - A decline greater than 1% is considered a fall, 0 - 1% is volatilely weak, a rise of 0 - 1% is volatilely strong, and a rise greater than 1% is a rise [3]. 3.2 Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term and medium - term views are volatile, and the intraday view is volatilely weak, with an overall reference view of weak operation [1][5]. - **Core Logic**: The domestic Shanghai rubber futures market is dominated by supply - demand fundamentals. Currently, Southeast Asian and domestic rubber - producing areas are in the peak tapping season, leading to high supply pressure. The domestic tire industry has reduced inventory, lower operating loads, and受阻 export growth. After the digestion of macro - bullish expectations, bearish fundamentals prevail. On Tuesday night, the 2601 contract of Shanghai rubber futures closed 0.06% lower at 15,965 yuan/ton and is expected to maintain a volatilely weak trend on Wednesday [5]. 3.3 Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term and medium - term views are volatile, and the intraday view is volatilely weak, with an overall reference view of weak operation [1][7]. - **Core Logic**: The domestic synthetic rubber futures market is also dominated by supply - demand fundamentals. The domestic synthetic rubber plant load is stable with a slight increase in supply pressure. The domestic tire industry has reduced inventory, lower operating loads, and受阻 export growth. After the digestion of macro - bullish expectations, bearish fundamentals prevail. On Tuesday night, the 2510 contract of synthetic rubber futures closed 0.71% lower at 11,895 yuan/ton and is expected to maintain a volatilely weak trend on Wednesday [7].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The power coal market is expected to shift from a "strong reality" logic to a "weak expectation" logic, with coal prices potentially peaking in the short - term. However, supported by the "anti - involution" policy, the callback space for power coal in September is expected to be limited, and the overall market will maintain high - level volatile operation [5] Group 3: Summary According to the Catalog Variety View Reference - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of power coal spot are all "oscillation". The core logic is that the optimistic sentiment is fading, and the prices of medium and low - calorie coal have stabilized and declined [1] Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Commodity Futures Black Sector - For power coal spot, the reference view is "oscillation". As the off - season approaches, thermal coal demand will enter a seasonal decline phase, and there is no substantial positive news on the non - power end. The market focus is on the supply side. Under the "anti - involution" policy, although the actual scale of production capacity withdrawal needs verification, market expectations have improved, and there may be positive news on the supply side. The coal market may shift from "strong reality" to "weak expectation" logic, with limited downward space for coal prices in September [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The report predicts that the domestic crude oil futures contract 2510 will run weakly in the short - term, with an intraday and short - term view of oscillating weakly and a medium - term view of oscillating. Due to factors such as slow demand growth, increased supply, and the digestion of macro - positive expectations, the bearish fundamentals are dominant [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Content - **Time - period Views**: For the crude oil 2510 contract, the short - term view is oscillating, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the intraday view is oscillating weakly, with an overall reference view of weak operation [1]. - **Core Logic**: The International Energy Agency (IEA) reports that next year the global crude oil market will face a record supply surplus due to slow demand growth and a surge in supply. Although the IEA has raised the global crude oil demand data for this year and next, the demand growth rate has declined. Crude oil inventories will accumulate at a rate of 2.96 million barrels per day, exceeding the average accumulation rate during the 2020 pandemic. After the digestion of macro - positive expectations, the bearish fundamentals take the lead. On Tuesday night, the domestic crude oil futures 2510 contract showed an oscillating and weakly - running trend, with the futures price dropping by 2.19% to 486.8 yuan per barrel. It is expected that on Wednesday, the contract will maintain an oscillating and weakly - running trend [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint The report is a daily arbitrage data report for futures varieties from Baocheng Futures on August 27, 2025, presenting detailed data on basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - commodity spreads for various futures products. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Power Coal - **Basis**: On August 26, 2025, the basis was - 105.4 yuan/ton, compared to - 97.4 yuan/ton on August 25 and previous trading days [2]. - **Inter - period spreads**: The spreads of 5 - month to 1 - month, 9 - month to 1 - month, and 9 - month to 5 - month were all 0.0 yuan/ton from August 20 to 26, 2025 [2]. 3.2 Energy and Chemicals 3.2.1 Energy Commodities - **Basis**: For fuel oil, INE crude oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt, the basis data from August 20 to 26, 2025, are presented, such as the basis of INE crude oil being 11.95 yuan/ton on August 26 [6]. 3.2.2 Chemical Commodities - **Basis**: From August 20 to 26, 2025, the basis of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, and PP are provided. For example, the basis of rubber was - 935 yuan/ton on August 26 [8]. - **Inter - period spreads**: The 5 - month to 1 - month, 9 - month to 1 - month, and 9 - month to 5 - month spreads of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are given. For instance, the 5 - month to 1 - month spread of rubber is 105 yuan/ton [10]. - **Inter - commodity spreads**: The spreads of LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3 * methanol from August 20 to 26, 2025, are presented. For example, the LLDPE - PVC spread was 2401 yuan/ton on August 26 [10]. 3.3 Black Metals - **Inter - period spreads**: The 5 - month to 1 - month, 9 - month (10) to 1 - month, and 9 - month (10) to 5 - month spreads of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are shown. For example, the 5 - month to 1 - month spread of rebar is 36.0 yuan/ton [19]. - **Inter - commodity spreads**: The ratios of rebar to iron ore, rebar to coke, coke to coking coal, and the spread of rebar - hot rolled coil from August 20 to 26, 2025, are provided. For example, the rebar/iron ore ratio was 4.01 on August 26 [19]. - **Basis**: The basis of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from August 20 to 26, 2025, are presented. For example, the basis of rebar was 177.0 yuan/ton on August 26 [20]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Domestic Market - **Basis**: The basis of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from August 20 to 26, 2025, are provided. For example, the basis of copper was 310 yuan/ton on August 26 [27]. 3.4.2 London Market - **LME Premium/Discount**: On August 26, 2025, the LME premium/discount of copper was (84.82), aluminum was 3.25, etc. [35]. - **Shanghai - London Ratio**: The Shanghai - London ratios of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin were 8.07, 7.92, 7.94, 8.45, 7.99, and 7.96 respectively on August 26, 2025 [35]. - **CIF and Domestic Spot Prices**: The CIF and domestic spot prices of these non - ferrous metals are given, along with the import profit and loss data on August 26, 2025 [35]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, corn, etc. from August 20 to 26, 2025, are presented. For example, the basis of soybeans No.1 was 86 on August 26 [39]. - **Inter - period spreads**: The 5 - month to 1 - month, 9 - month to 1 - month, and 9 - month to 5 - month spreads of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, etc. are provided [39]. - **Inter - commodity spreads**: The ratios of soybeans No.1 to corn, soybeans No.2 to corn, soybean oil to soybean meal, and spreads of soybean meal - rapeseed meal, soybean oil - palm oil, etc. from August 20 to 26, 2025, are given [39]. 3.6 Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 on August 20 to 26, 2025, are presented. For example, the basis of CSI 300 was 3.59 on August 26 [51]. - **Inter - period spreads**: The spreads of next - month to current - month and next - quarter to current - quarter for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are provided [53].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 资讯早班车 资讯早班车-2025-08-27 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 20250715 | 2025/06 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 5.20 | 5.40 | 4.70 | | 20250731 | 2025/07 | 制造业 PMI | % | 49.30 | 49.70 | 49.40 | | 20250731 | 2025/07 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活 动 | % | 50.10 | 50.50 | 50.20 | | | | 社会融资规模增量:当 | | | | | | 20250814 | 2025/07 | 月值 | 亿元 | | 11320.00 42251.00 | 7707.00 | | 20250813 | 2025/07 | M0(流通中的现金):同 | % | 11.80 | 12.00 | 12.00 | | | | 比 | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The methanol 2601 contract is expected to run weakly, with short - term, medium - term and intraday trends being oscillatory, oscillatory, and oscillatory - weak respectively [1][5]. - As the previous macro - driving force weakens, methanol returns to a market dominated by a weak supply - demand structure. The supply pressure at home and abroad is large, downstream demand is in the off - season, and the weak supply - demand structure causes the price center to decline. Affected by the slight decline in domestic coal futures prices and other factors, the methanol 2601 contract on the domestic futures market maintained an oscillatory - weak trend on Tuesday night, with the futures price closing 1.24% lower at 2383 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory - weak trend on Wednesday [5]. Summary by Related Catalog Variety Morning Meeting Minutes - For the methanol 2601 contract, the short - term view is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, the intraday view is oscillatory - weak, and the reference view is weak operation. The core logic is that bearish factors suppress the price, leading to an oscillatory - weak trend [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Commodity Futures Energy and Chemical Sector - The intraday view of methanol is oscillatory - weak, and the medium - term view is oscillatory. The reference view is weak operation. The core reason is that the weakening of the previous macro - driving force makes the market return to be dominated by a weak supply - demand structure. The supply pressure is large, the demand is in the off - season, and the price center is facing a downward shift. On Tuesday night, the domestic methanol 2601 contract futures price closed 1.24% lower at 2383 yuan/ton, and it is expected to maintain an oscillatory - weak trend on Wednesday [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating Core Views of the Report - Gold: In the short - term, it's expected to oscillate; in the medium - term, also oscillate; and on the day, it's expected to be weakly oscillating. The suggested approach is to wait and see. The core logic is that the growing expectation of interest rate cuts is favorable for the gold price, but there is significant technical pressure at the upper limit of the oscillation range [1][3]. - Copper: In the short - term, it's expected to rise; in the medium - term, oscillate; and on the day, it's expected to be strongly oscillating. The suggested approach is to be bullish in the short - term. The core logic is that the overseas macro situation is warming up, China is approaching the peak season, and industrial support is strengthening [1][5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Price Trend**: After Fed Chair Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting last Friday, the gold price has been on an upward trend, and New York gold is approaching the $3450 mark, which is the upper limit of the oscillation range since the second quarter [3]. - **Market Expectation**: The market's expectation of interest rate cuts may have been reflected in the price, and currently, the market is more likely to price in two interest rate cuts this year [3]. - **Demand Change**: The recovery of market risk appetite has led to a continuous strong performance in the equity market, reducing the safe - haven demand for gold [3]. - **Technical Pressure**: Without other favorable factors, it's expected that the gold price will face significant technical pressure at the upper limit of the oscillation range [3]. Copper - **Price and Position Change**: The copper price stabilized and rebounded last night, and the open interest increased accordingly [5]. - **Macro Factors**: Fed Chair Powell's dovish speech at the Jackson Hole meeting increased market risk appetite, which is favorable for the copper price; the rebound of the US dollar index and the cooling of the domestic commodity market are negative factors for the copper price [5]. - **Industrial Factors**: As China is approaching the peak season, the social inventory of electrolytic copper is decreasing, and industrial support is gradually strengthening, so the copper price is expected to maintain a strong performance [5].