1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the 01 contract showed a downward trend. It is expected that next week, the demand recovery will be limited, supply will decrease, cost support will weaken, and the market may experience a bearish oscillatory adjustment [5][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Review and Outlook - **Market Performance**: The 01 contract declined this week, with an opening price of 3,048 yuan/ton on Monday and a closing price of 3,009 yuan/ton on Friday, representing a weekly decline [5] - **Supply Side**: In November 2025, the total planned production of asphalt by local refineries was 1.312 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.5%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples was 26.4262%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.37 percentage points. The national sample enterprises' shipment was 245,550 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15.28%. The sample enterprises' output was 441,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14.20%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprises' equipment was 958,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.59%. Refineries reduced production this week, but supply pressure may increase next week [5] - **Demand Side**: The开工率 of heavy - traffic asphalt was 24.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.14 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The开工率 of building asphalt was 6.6%, flat month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The开工率 of modified asphalt was 10.587%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.63 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The开工率 of road - modified asphalt was 34%, flat month - on - month, higher than the historical average. The开工率 of waterproofing membranes was 34%, a month - on - month increase of 1.00 percentage point, lower than the historical average. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [5] - **Cost Side**: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 453.38 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 1,086.84 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 18.76%. Asphalt processing losses increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. With the weakening of crude oil, the short - term support is expected to weaken [6] - **Inventory Side**: The social inventory was 794,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.75%. The in - plant inventory was 642,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.77%. The port diluted asphalt inventory was 800,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.57%. Social and in - plant inventories continued to decline, while port inventory continued to accumulate [6] 3.2 Technical Analysis - This week, the main 01 contract showed a downward trend, and it is expected to experience a bearish oscillatory adjustment next week [107]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Cotton prices continued to fluctuate around 13,500 this week. With cost support from the spot market, the downside is limited. It presents an opportunity for mid - to long - term long positions to enter the market at low prices and target distant contracts [4][5]. - The textile industry is in the off - season, but short - term benefits from China - US negotiations have led to a 10% reduction in export tariffs to the US [5]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include a slight increase in seed cotton purchase prices, a year - on - year decrease in commercial inventory, and a 10% reduction in export tariffs to the US. Negative factors are a decline in overall foreign trade orders, an increase in inventory, the upcoming large - scale listing of new cotton, and the traditional consumption off - season [6][7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review - This week, cotton prices fluctuated around 13,500. The ICAC November report forecasts a 2025/26 production of 25.4 million tons and consumption of 25 million tons. The USDA November report predicts a 2025/26 production of 26.145 million tons, consumption of 25.883 million tons, and an ending inventory of 16.532 million tons. In October, textile and clothing exports were $22.262 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 12.63%. China imported 90,000 tons of cotton in October, a year - on - year decrease of 15.6%, and 140,000 tons of cotton yarn, a year - on - year increase of 16.7%. The Ministry of Agriculture's November 2025/26 forecast shows production of 6.6 million tons, imports of 1.4 million tons, consumption of 7.4 million tons, and ending inventory of 8.45 million tons [4]. 3.2 Daily Hints - The textile industry is in the off - season. Short - term benefits from China - US negotiations have led to a 10% reduction in export tariffs to the US. Domestic new cotton picking is almost finished. With cost support, the downside of futures prices is limited, and it's a good time for mid - to long - term long positions to enter the market at low prices and target distant contracts [5]. 3.3 Today's Focus Not provided in the report. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **USDA Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: In 2025/26, global production is expected to be 26.145 million tons, consumption 25.883 million tons, and ending inventory 16.532 million tons. Different countries have different trends in production, consumption, imports, and exports [11][12]. - **ICAC Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: In 2025/26, the area is 30.41385 million hectares, yield per hectare is 835.13 kg, production is 25.39956 million tons, consumption is 25.00778 million tons, and ending inventory is 16.22785 million tons [14]. - **China Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: In 2025/26, production is 6.6 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.4 million tons, and ending inventory is 8.45 million tons. The domestic average price of cotton 3128B is expected to be between 14,000 - 16,000 yuan/ton, and the Cotlook A index is expected to be between 75 - 100 cents/pound [15]. - **Other Data**: There are also data on polyester fiber prices, spinning mill profits, cotton yarn imports, cotton yarn production start - up rates, and weaving mill start - up rates [18][20][25]. 3.5 Position Data Not provided in the report.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel and ore markets moved sideways this week with little overall fluctuation [62]. - The current operating logic of the black industrial chain lies in weak terminal consumption, with the slump in the real - estate industry being the core factor. The negative feedback mechanism in the industrial chain is transmitted upwards, and different links are affected differently according to their industry status. Overall, weak demand suppresses prices [62]. - On Monday, prices rose due to the influence of rumors, and market expectations for policies are a key factor in price fluctuations. However, the probability of substantial policy introduction is low in the current environment [62]. - The report maintains the previous view that the fundamentals are bearish, and the overall steel and ore markets will remain in a weak pattern [62]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Raw Material Market Condition Analysis 3.1.1 One - Week Data Changes - **Iron Ore Spot Prices**: PB powder price increased from 783 yuan/wet ton to 790 yuan/wet ton, and Bar - mixed powder price rose from 820 yuan/wet ton to 831 yuan/wet ton [6]. - **Iron Ore Import Profits**: PB powder's spot landing profit decreased from - 5.41 yuan/wet ton to - 12.08 yuan/wet ton, while Bar - mixed powder's increased from 18.38 yuan/wet ton to 21.87 yuan/wet ton [6]. - **Iron Ore Shipment Volumes**: Australia's shipments to China increased from 1454.2 million tons to 1812.1 million tons, and Brazil's shipments rose from 725.7 million tons to 847.9 million tons [6]. - **Iron Ore Port Inventories and Related Data**: Imported iron ore port inventory decreased by 77.99 million tons to 15734.85 million tons, the arrival volume decreased by 399.4 million tons to 2369.9 million tons, the port clearance volume increased by 3.11 million tons to 343.39 million tons, the daily port trading volume decreased by 10.5 million tons to 91.6 million tons, the average daily hot - metal output decreased by 0.6 million tons to 236.28 million tons, and the steel - enterprise profitability rate decreased by 1.3 percentage points to 37.66% [6]. 3.2 Market Status Analysis 3.2.1 One - Week Data Changes - **Steel Product Prices**: Shanghai rebar price increased from 3190 yuan/ton to 3220 yuan/ton, and Shanghai hot - rolled coil price rose from 3260 yuan/ton to 3270 yuan/ton [33]. - **Steel - Making Furnace Operating Rates**: The blast - furnace operating rate decreased by 0.62 percentage points to 82.19%, and the electric - furnace operating rate increased by 1 percentage point to 69.13% [33]. - **Steel Product Profits**: Rebar blast - furnace profit decreased by 1 yuan/ton to - 30 yuan/ton, hot - rolled coil blast - furnace profit decreased by 16 yuan/ton to - 57 yuan/ton, and rebar electric - furnace profit increased by 42 yuan/ton to - 114 yuan/ton [33]. - **Steel Production Volumes**: Rebar weekly output increased by 7.96 million tons to 207.96 million tons, and hot - rolled coil weekly output rose by 2.35 million tons to 316.01 million tons [33]. 3.2.2 Another Set of One - Week Data Changes - **Steel Inventories**: Rebar's weekly social inventory decreased by 15.73 million tons to 400.02 million tons, and its weekly enterprise inventory dropped by 7.1 million tons to 153.32 million tons. Hot - rolled coil's weekly social inventory decreased by 8.91 million tons to 324.09 million tons, and its weekly enterprise inventory increased by 0.5 million tons to 78.02 million tons [35]. - **Steel Apparent Consumption**: Rebar's weekly apparent consumption increased by 14.42 million tons to 230.79 million tons, and hot - rolled coil's weekly apparent consumption rose by 10.83 million tons to 324.42 million tons [35]. - **Building Material Trading Volume**: The building material trading volume decreased by 9111 tons to 95010 tons [35]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Data Analysis - **Operating Rates**: The blast - furnace and electric - furnace operating rates are important indicators for steel production capacity utilization [41]. - **Steel Production Volumes**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil production volumes in China are presented over different time periods, showing trends in production [43][45]. - **Steel Profits**: The average profit of electric - furnace steel for construction use in China is shown over time, reflecting the profitability of the steel - making process [50]. - **Steel Inventories**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil inventories in social and enterprise warehouses in China are presented, which are important for analyzing supply - demand relationships [51][52]. - **Steel Trading Volumes**: The trading volume of building - use steel by mainstream traders in China is shown, indicating market activity [54]. - **Steel Apparent Consumption**: The weekly apparent consumption changes of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different years are presented, helping to understand market demand [56]. - **Steel Exports**: The monthly export volume of steel in China is shown, which is related to the international market demand for Chinese steel [57]. - **Real - Estate Indicators**: The year - on - year cumulative investment completion of residential buildings by real - estate development enterprises, the year - on - year cumulative sales area of commercial housing, the year - on - year cumulative new construction, construction, and completion areas of houses, and the manufacturing PMI are presented, which are related to the demand for steel in the real - estate and manufacturing industries [58][59][61].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, crude oil showed a first-rising-then-falling trend, and fuel oil prices followed the downward trend. The market structure of low-sulfur fuel oil remained stable, while that of high-sulfur fuel oil strengthened slightly. High-sulfur fuel oil closed at 2,487 yuan/ton, down 3.91% for the week, and low-sulfur fuel oil closed at 3,038 yuan/ton, down 6.23% for the week [4]. - The estimated arrival volume of low-sulfur fuel oil from the Western market in Singapore in November is 2.9 - 3 billion tons, higher than 2.5 - 2.6 billion tons in October. However, high freight rates may lead to a tightening of arrivals in December. Affected by the expected supply tightening, the price of low-sulfur marine fuel oil has gradually risen, and the spot spread has changed from a discount to a premium. But due to sufficient immediate supply, there is limited room for the low-sulfur fuel oil fundamentals to rise significantly in the short term [4]. - The Asian high-sulfur fuel oil market has been strongly supported by the downstream marine fuel demand. Some Chinese refineries are purchasing high-sulfur fuel oil as raw materials, and the demand in the Chinese market remains relatively stable. International crude oil prices are expected to remain volatile, and fuel oil prices are also expected to continue to fluctuate weakly. Operationally, high-sulfur fuel oil should be traded in the range of 2,450 - 2,650 yuan/ton, and low-sulfur fuel oil in the range of 2,950 - 3,150 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Weekly View - Crude oil showed a first-rising-then-falling trend last week, and fuel oil prices followed the downward trend. The market structure of low-sulfur fuel oil remained stable, and that of high-sulfur fuel oil strengthened slightly. High-sulfur fuel oil closed at 2,487 yuan/ton, down 3.91% for the week, and low-sulfur fuel oil closed at 3,038 yuan/ton, down 6.23% for the week [4]. - The estimated arrival volume of low-sulfur fuel oil from the Western market in Singapore in November is 2.9 - 3 billion tons, higher than 2.5 - 2.6 billion tons in October. High freight rates may lead to a tightening of arrivals in December. Affected by the expected supply tightening, the price of low-sulfur marine fuel oil has gradually risen, and the spot spread has changed from a discount to a premium. But due to sufficient immediate supply, there is limited room for the low-sulfur fuel oil fundamentals to rise significantly in the short term [4]. - The Asian high-sulfur fuel oil market has been strongly supported by the downstream marine fuel demand. Some Chinese refineries are purchasing high-sulfur fuel oil as raw materials, and the demand in the Chinese market remains relatively stable. International crude oil prices are expected to remain volatile, and fuel oil prices are also expected to continue to fluctuate weakly. Operationally, high-sulfur fuel oil should be traded in the range of 2,450 - 2,650 yuan/ton, and low-sulfur fuel oil in the range of 2,950 - 3,150 yuan/ton [4]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Prices**: The previous value of the FU main contract was 2,655 yuan/ton, the current value is 2,546 yuan/ton, down 109 yuan/ton or 4.10%. The previous value of the LU main contract was 3,255 yuan/ton, the current value is 3,207 yuan/ton, down 48 yuan/ton or 1.49% [5]. - **Spot Prices**: The previous value of Zhoushan high-sulfur fuel oil was 456 yuan/ton, the current value is 445 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton or 2.41%. The previous value of Zhoushan low-sulfur fuel oil was 465 yuan/ton, the current value is 455 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton or 2.15%. The previous value of Singapore high-sulfur fuel oil was 345.51 yuan/ton, the current value is 341.53 yuan/ton, down 3.98 yuan/ton or 1.15%. The previous value of Singapore low-sulfur fuel oil was 441.50 yuan/ton, the current value is 426.35 yuan/ton, down 15.15 yuan/ton or 3.43%. The previous value of Middle East high-sulfur fuel oil was 314.22 yuan/ton, the current value is 310.98 yuan/ton, down 3.24 yuan/ton or 1.03%. The previous value of Singapore diesel was 711.50 yuan/ton, the current value is 696.05 yuan/ton, down 15.44 yuan/ton or 2.17% [6]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Consumption Data**: Data on Singapore fuel oil consumption, Chinese fuel oil consumption, and Shandong fuel oil coking profit margins are presented in the form of charts, showing the consumption and profit margin trends from 2021 - 2025 [7][8][9]. 3.4 Inventory Data - **Singapore Fuel Oil Inventory**: As of November 19, the inventory was 23.449 billion barrels, an increase of 2.57 billion barrels [10]. 3.5 Spread Data - The chart of the high - low sulfur futures spread shows the spread trend [15].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, sugar prices in China started a catch - up decline, with spot prices dropping significantly due to the impact of imported sugar. The full - tariff price of imported sugar is around 5100 - 5200, and there is still room for the futures price to fall. After a rapid decline, there may be a rebound. It's advisable to be cautiously bearish, avoid chasing short positions, and consider reducing profitable short positions taken earlier [5]. - Different institutions have different forecasts for the global sugar supply surplus in the 25/26 season, with estimates ranging from 100,000 to 740,000 tons [5]. - The external sugar market is weak, and the profit margin for out - of - quota imported sugar is large, leading to a significant increase in imports in October. The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton 01 has recently caught up with the decline and reached a new low. Considering the approaching delivery, it is recommended to shift trading to the 05 contract. After a short - term rapid decline, a technical rebound is possible, and short - term short positions can be partially reduced for profit [5]. - There are both bullish and bearish factors in the sugar market. Bullish factors include good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, and the change in the US cola formula to use sucrose. Bearish factors are the increase in global sugar production and the expected supply surplus in the new season, as well as the opening of the import profit window due to the fall of external sugar prices to around 14 cents per pound [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review No information provided. 3.2 Daily Prompt - For SR2601, the price is 5353, the basis is 317, the import price difference is - 246, and the state reserve inventory is about 7 million tons. For SR2605, the price is 5302, with a change of - 60, the import price after processing of raw sugar (50% tariff) is 5107, the basis is 368, the import price difference is - 195, and the import quota is 1.945 million tons. For SR2609, the price in Liuzhou is 5321, the basis is 349, and the import price difference is - 214. In October 2025, China imported 750,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 210,000 tons, and imported 115,500 tons of syrup and premixed powder, a year - on - year decrease of 110,500 tons [8]. - Mid - term view: The domestic sugar supply - demand balance sheet shows a gap, but the gap is decreasing in the medium - to - long - term. The average domestic sugar spot sales price is around 5700. Since January 2025, the tariff on imported syrup has increased, approaching the out - of - quota import tariff of raw sugar. The long - term view is bullish on sugar due to the approval of the cola formula change [8]. - Short - term view: Bullish on sugar. Different institutions have different forecasts for the global sugar supply surplus in the 25/26 season [8]. 3.3 Today's Focus No information provided. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Global sugar supply and demand forecasts for the 25/26 season from different institutions: ISO predicts a surplus of 163,000 tons; StoneX predicts a surplus of 277,000 tons; Czarnikow has raised the surplus forecast to 740,000 tons; DATAGRO has revised the surplus forecast down from 280,000 to 100,000 tons [5][8]. - As of the end of August 2025, in the 24/25 season, the cumulative sugar production in China was 1.11621 million tons, the cumulative sugar sales were 1 million tons, and the sales rate was 89.6%. In October 2025, China imported 750,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 210,000 tons, and imported 115,500 tons of syrup and premixed powder, a year - on - year decrease of 110,500 tons [5][8]. - China's sugar supply - demand balance sheet: In the 25/26 season (November forecast), the sugarcane planting area is 1.439 million hectares, the sugar production is 1.17 million tons, the import volume is 500,000 tons, the consumption is 1.57 million tons, and the export volume is 18,000 tons. The international sugar price is expected to be between 14.0 - 18.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be between 5500 - 6000 yuan per ton [36]. 3.5 Position Data No information provided.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, crude oil prices fluctuated downward. Geopolitical concerns weakened, leading to a significant drop in oil prices in the second half of the week. The short - term oil price is expected to oscillate at a low level. The recommended short - term trading range for oil futures is 435 - 465, and long - term investors are advised to wait and see [3][6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Review - **Price Movement**: New York Mercantile Exchange's main light crude oil futures closed at $57.98 per barrel, down 3.06% for the week; Brent crude oil futures in London closed at $61.89 per barrel, down 3.73% for the week; and Shanghai crude oil futures closed at 446.4 yuan per barrel, down 2.40% for the week [3]. - **Positive Factors**: At the beginning of the week, the uncertainty of Russian energy supply supported oil prices. Ukraine's drone attack on a Russian oil depot and a ship in the port of Novorossiysk led to a two - day suspension of loading operations. The port exported about 700,000 barrels of Russian oil per day in September and October. The US sanctions on Russian oil and gas also partially boosted oil prices [3]. - **Negative Factors**: Later in the week, news of a potential cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict weakened geopolitical concerns and caused oil prices to drop significantly. The number of speculative net long positions in Brent crude oil futures increased, while the number of speculative net long positions in WTI crude oil futures decreased [3]. 3.2 Related News - **US Sanctions**: The US listed Russian oil giants Rosneft PJSC and Lukoil PJSC on the blacklist. Asian buyers, especially Indian refiners, are scrambling to find alternative supplies. The freight rate for chartering tankers from the Middle East has reached a nearly five - year high. However, Russian oil exports remain stable for now, with about 3.4 million barrels per day of seaborne shipments [4]. - **Indian Oil Purchase**: Indian Reliance Industries bought 1 million barrels of heavy crude oil from Kuwait Petroleum Company through a tender [5]. - **Fed's Policy**: The Fed's October meeting minutes revealed a heated debate on whether to cut interest rates in December. After a series of official speeches, the probability of a December interest rate cut expected by traders in the interest rate futures market rose to over 70% [5]. - **US - Venezuela Tension**: The US ambassador to the United Nations reiterated that the US will take "decisive action" against Venezuela. A US strike group led by the USS Gerald R. Ford arrived in the Caribbean Sea, raising speculation about a wider US attack on Venezuela [5]. 3.3 Outlook - Geopolitical concerns continue to weaken, and the implementation of subsequent sanctions on Russia remains to be seen. The short - term oil price is expected to oscillate at a low level. Short - term trading is recommended in the range of 435 - 465, and long - term investors are advised to wait and see [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of various crude oil varieties showed mixed trends. The price of UK Brent Dtd increased by 0.63% to $63.54, while the price of WTI decreased by 0.43% to $59.43 [9]. - **Inventory Data**: The Cushing inventory decreased by 698,000 barrels to 21.821 million barrels as of November 14. The EIA inventory decreased by 3.426 million barrels to 424.155 million barrels on the same date [11][12]. 3.5持仓数据 - **CFTC Fund Net Long Positions**: As of the week of October 7, the number of speculative net long positions in WTI crude oil futures decreased by 28,991 contracts to 74,309 contracts [3][19]. - **ICE Fund Net Long Positions**: As of November 18, the number of speculative net long positions in Brent crude oil futures increased by 13,497 contracts to 178,364 contracts [3][20].

1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 1 回顾与展望 2 基本面分析 3 技术面分析 证券代码：839979 工业硅期货周报 2025年11月17日-11月21日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 2 1 回顾与展望 3 回顾与展望——工业硅 本周01合约为下跌态势,周一开盘价为9025元/吨,周五收盘价为8960元/吨，周跌幅为0.72% 供给端来看,本周工业硅供应量为9.1万吨，环比持平。本周样本企业产量为45390万吨,环比 减少0.11%;其中云南样本企业开工率为30.29%,环比持平,四川样本企业开工率为12.06%,环比减 少5.92%,新疆样本企业开工率为84.8%,环比持平,西北样本企业开工率为78%,环比持平。预计本 月开工率为58%,较上月开工率68.12%减少10.12个百分点。 需求端来看,本周工业硅需求为8万吨，环比减少4.76%,需求持 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint Geopolitical concerns have eased, leading to continued weakness in oil prices. However, the increasing probability of the US launching military action against Venezuela provides potential support for oil prices. In the short term, oil prices are expected to oscillate at low levels, waiting for more geopolitical news. SC2601 is expected to trade in the range of 443 - 453, and long - term investors should remain on the sidelines. [3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - **Fundamentals**: The US is preparing to initiate a new phase of Venezuela - related actions, and the US and Ukraine are making progress in cease - fire negotiations but have not reached a consensus on key issues. The overall situation is neutral. [3] - **Basis**: On November 21, the spot price of Oman crude oil was $62.98 per barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude oil was $62.06 per barrel. The basis was 26.20 yuan/barrel, with the spot price higher than the futures price, which is bullish. [3] - **Inventory**: The API crude oil inventory in the US increased by 4.448 million barrels in the week ending November 14. The EIA inventory decreased by 3.426 million barrels in the week ending November 14, more than the expected decrease of 0.603 million barrels. The Cushing area inventory decreased by 69,800 barrels in the week ending November 14. The Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained unchanged at 3.464 million barrels as of November 20, which is bullish. [3] - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the price is below the moving average, which is bearish. [3] - **Main Position**: As of October 7, the long positions of WTI crude oil main contracts decreased; as of November 18, the long positions of Brent crude oil main contracts increased, which is bullish. [3] 3.2 Recent News - **US - Ukraine Negotiations**: US and Ukrainian senior officials said they had made substantial progress in bridging differences. However, Trump's criticism on social media complicated the negotiation prospects. Zelensky thanked Trump but said more work was needed to reach a final agreement. [5] - **Economic Outlook**: US Treasury Secretary Besent is optimistic about the economic growth in 2026. The economic effects of the Republican's large - scale expenditure plan, the "One Big, Beautiful Bill Act", have not fully manifested. Healthcare costs are expected to become more affordable, but some economic sectors, such as housing, are struggling. [5] - **Internal Resistance**: US Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman Roger Wicker publicly questioned Trump's Ukraine peace plan, indicating significant resistance within the Republican Party. [5] 3.3 Long - Short Concerns - **Bullish Factors**: Sanctions against Russia are approaching, and OPEC+ will suspend production increases in the first quarter of next year. [6] - **Bearish Factors**: The Middle East situation has eased, institutions generally expect an oil surplus, and there is a possibility of a meeting and negotiation between the US and Russia. [6] - **Market Drivers**: Short - term bearish impacts have subsided, geopolitical bullish factors are not obvious, and there is a long - term risk of oversupply. [6] 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The settlement price of Brent crude oil decreased from $64.89 to $63.51, a decline of 2.13%; WTI crude oil decreased from $60.67 to $59.25, a decline of 2.34%; SC crude oil increased from 462.3 to 463.2, an increase of 0.19%; Oman crude oil increased from $64.51 to $64.75, an increase of 0.37%. [7] - **Spot Market**: The price of UK Brent Dtd increased by 0.13%, WTI decreased by 2.14%, Oman crude oil in the Pacific Rim increased by 0.43%, Shengli crude oil in the Pacific Rim increased by 0.74%, and Dubai crude oil in the Pacific Rim increased by 0.48%. [9] - **Inventory Data**: The API inventory increased by 4.448 million barrels in the week ending November 14. The EIA inventory decreased by 3.426 million barrels in the week ending November 14. [3][10][13] 3.5 Position Data - **WTI Crude Oil**: As of October 7, the net long position decreased. The net long position on October 7 was 74,309, a decrease of 28,991 compared to the previous period. [17] - **Brent Crude Oil**: As of November 18, the net long position increased. The net long position on November 18 was 178,364, an increase of 13,497 compared to the previous period. [19]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - side: In November 2025, the total planned output of asphalt from local refineries was 1.312 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.5%. The capacity utilization rate of the domestic petroleum asphalt sample this week was 26.4262%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.37 percentage points. The refinery reduced production this week to ease supply pressure, but the supply pressure may increase next week [8]. - The demand - side: The current demand is lower than the historical average. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 was 24.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.14 percentage points; the construction asphalt开工率 was 6%, unchanged from the previous month; the modified asphalt开工率 was 10.587%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.63 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt开工率 was 34%, unchanged from the previous month; the waterproofing membrane开工率 was 34%, a month - on - month increase of 1.00 percentage point [8]. - The cost - side: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 453.38 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 1,086.84 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 18.76%. The asphalt processing loss increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. With crude oil prices weakening, it is expected that the short - term support will weaken [8]. - The basis: On November 21st, the spot price in Shandong was 3,030 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was 21 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [8]. - The inventory: The social inventory was 794,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.75%; the in - plant inventory was 642,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.77%; the port diluted asphalt inventory was 800,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.57%. Social and in - plant inventories continued to decline, while port inventory continued to increase [8]. - The market: The MA20 was downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed below the MA20. The main positions were net short, and short positions increased. It is expected that the market will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, and the asphalt 2601 will fluctuate between 2,984 - 3,034 [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Likely positive factors**: Relatively high crude oil costs provide some support [10]. - **Likely negative factors**: Insufficient demand for high - priced goods; overall demand is declining, and the expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States is strengthening [11]. - **Main logic**: Supply pressure remains high; demand recovery is weak [12]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The prices of various asphalt contracts and related indicators showed different degrees of decline. For example, the price of the 01 contract decreased from 3,058 to 3,009, a decrease of 1.60%; the social inventory was 794,000 tons, a decrease of 3.76% compared with the previous value [15]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market Analysis - **Basis trend**: Provided the historical trends of the Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 to 2025 [18][19][20]. - **Spread analysis** - **Main contract spread**: Showed the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [22][23]. - **Asphalt - crude oil price trend**: Presented the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas crude oil from 2020 to 2025 [25][26]. - **Crude oil cracking spread**: Displayed the historical trends of the asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent cracking spreads from 2020 to 2025 [28][29][30]. - **Asphalt - crude oil - fuel oil price ratio trend**: Showed the historical price ratio trends of asphalt - SC and asphalt - fuel oil from 2020 to 2025 [32][34]. 3.4 Asphalt Spot Market Analysis - **Regional market price trends**: The report provided the historical price trend chart of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [35][36]. 3.5 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit analysis** - **Asphalt profit**: Showed the historical profit trend of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [37][38]. - **Coking - asphalt profit spread trend**: Presented the historical profit spread trend between coking and asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [40][41][42]. - **Supply - side analysis** - **Shipment volume**: The report showed the weekly shipment volume of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 to 2025 [44][45]. - **Diluted asphalt port inventory**: Provided the historical inventory trend of domestic diluted asphalt ports from 2021 to 2025 [46][47]. - **Output**: Included the weekly and monthly output trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [49][50]. - **Marey crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly output trend**: Showed the historical price trend of Marey crude oil and the monthly output trend of Venezuelan crude oil from 2018 to 2025 [53][55]. - **Local refinery asphalt output**: Presented the historical output trend of local refinery asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [56][57]. - **Capacity utilization rate**: Showed the historical weekly capacity utilization rate trend of asphalt from 2021 to 2025 [59][60]. - **Estimated maintenance loss volume**: Provided the historical estimated maintenance loss volume trend of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 [62][63]. - **Inventory analysis** - **Exchange warehouse receipts**: Showed the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and in - plant inventory) of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [65][66][67]. - **Social inventory and in - plant inventory**: Presented the historical trends of social inventory (70 samples) and in - plant inventory (54 samples) of asphalt from 2022 to 2025 [69][70]. - **In - plant inventory - inventory ratio**: Showed the historical in - plant inventory - inventory ratio trend of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 [72][73]. - **Import and export situation**: Provided the historical export and import trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025, as well as the historical import price difference trend of South Korean asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [75][76][79]. - **Demand - side analysis** - **Petroleum coke output**: The report showed the historical output trend of petroleum coke from 2019 to 2025 [81][82]. - **Apparent consumption**: Presented the historical apparent consumption trend of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [84][85]. - **Downstream demand**: Included the historical trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year from 2019 to 2025, as well as the historical sales volume trends of asphalt concrete pavers, domestic excavators, and road rollers, and the historical monthly operating hours trend of excavators from 2020 to 2025 [87][88][89]. - **Asphalt开工率**: Showed the historical开工率 trends of heavy - traffic asphalt, construction asphalt, modified asphalt, and asphalt by use from 2019 to 2025 [96][97][99]. - **Downstream开工 situation**: Presented the historical开工率 trends of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [100][101][103]. - **Supply - demand balance sheet**: Provided the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheets from January 2024 to November 2025, including downstream demand, port inventory, in - plant inventory, social inventory, export volume, import volume, and output [105][106].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PVC期货早报 2025年11月24日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 供给端来看，据隆众统计，2025年10月PVC产量为212.812万吨，环比增加4.79%；本周样本企业产能利 用率为78.83%，环比增加0.00个百分点；电石法企业产量34.578万吨，环比增加0.65%,乙烯法企业产 量13.466万吨，环比减少0.18%；本周供给压力有所增加；下周预计检修有所减少，预计排产少量增加 需求端来看，下游整体开工率为49.19%，环比减少0.35个百分点，高于历史平均水平；下游型材开工率 为36.3%，环比减少0.66个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游管材开工率为40.2%，环比减少0.39个百 分点，高于历史平均水平；下游薄膜开工率为71.07%，环比持平，高于历 ...