Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, nickel prices dropped significantly, breaking through the low point of the year. The downstream procurement enthusiasm was acceptable, and some production capacities were reduced recently. The supply of sources such as GEM was tight. In the industrial chain, nickel ore prices remained firm, and shipping costs increased slightly. The RKAB quota in Indonesia in 2026 is expected to be 3.19 billion tons, with an expected loose supply. Nickel iron prices continued to decline, breaking through the support of the 900 mark, and the cost - line center of gravity decreased again. Stainless steel inventories increased slightly, with a slight decline in the 300 - series, and the demand performance was still poor. Refined nickel inventories remained at a high level, and the surplus pattern remained unchanged. Although the production and sales data of new energy vehicles were good, the overall boost to nickel demand was limited [8]. - The main contract of Shanghai nickel will fluctuate in a range of 2,000 points above and below 115,000, and short on rebounds in the medium - to - long term. The main contract of stainless steel is under downward pressure and will operate weakly [9][10]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Viewpoints and Strategies - **Nickel Viewpoint**: Nickel prices fell sharply this week, breaking through the annual low. Downstream procurement was acceptable, with some production cuts and tight supply from some sources. The nickel ore price was firm, shipping costs rose slightly, and the Indonesian supply was expected to be loose. Nickel iron prices continued to decline, stainless steel demand was weak, refined nickel was in surplus, and new energy vehicles had limited impact on nickel demand [8]. - **Operation Strategy**: The main contract of Shanghai nickel will fluctuate around 115,000 with a range of 2,000 points, and short on rebounds in the medium - to - long term. The main contract of stainless steel will operate weakly [9][10]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Industry Chain Weekly Price Changes**: Red soil nickel ore prices remained stable, while the prices of battery - grade and electroplating - grade nickel sulfate, electrolytic nickel, nickel iron, and 304 stainless steel all decreased [13][14]. - **Nickel Ore Market**: Nickel ore prices were stable, shipping costs increased by $1 per wet ton. As of November 21, 2025, the total nickel ore inventory at 14 ports in China decreased by 0.65%. In October 2025, nickel ore imports decreased by 23.41% month - on - month and increased by 10.97% year - on - year. Downstream nickel - iron enterprises had low procurement enthusiasm, and the benchmark price of Indonesian nickel ore decreased slightly [17]. - **Electrolytic Nickel Market**: Nickel prices weakened, and downstream procurement was acceptable. Some production was reduced, and there was a willingness to support prices. In the long - term, the supply and demand would both increase, but the surplus pattern would remain. The substitution of ternary batteries was more obvious, and nickel demand growth slowed down. In October 2025, China's refined nickel production decreased month - on - month and increased year - on - year. Imports decreased significantly month - on - month, and exports decreased slightly. The price of nickel sulfate decreased [22][25][26]. - **Nickel Iron Market**: Nickel iron prices continued to decline. In October 2025, China's nickel - pig iron production increased month - on - month and decreased year - on - year. Imports decreased month - on - month and increased year - on - year. The inventory in October was 209,100 physical tons, equivalent to 19,800 nickel tons [41][44][47]. - **Stainless Steel Market**: The price of 304 stainless steel decreased. In October, stainless steel production was 3.4267 million tons, with a 1.43% increase in the 300 - series. Imports were 124,100 tons, and exports were 358,100 tons. As of November 21, the national inventory increased slightly, and the 300 - series inventory decreased slightly [55][61][67]. - **New Energy Vehicle Production and Sales**: In October, new energy vehicle production and sales were 1.772 million and 1.715 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 21.1% and 20%. From January to October, production and sales were 13.015 million and 12.943 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 33.1% and 32.7%. In October, power and other battery production and sales increased significantly, and the cumulative installed capacity from January to October increased by 42.4% year - on - year [72][75]. 3.3 Technical Analysis - From the daily K - line, the price continued to be under pressure, breaking through the previous low, opening up downward space, and moving away from the 20 - day moving average. The high - level position did not reduce, indicating strong short - selling sentiment from the main force. The green column of the MACD indicator began to shrink, and indicators such as KDJ entered the oversold area, with a certain rebound demand [78]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Summary - **Nickel Ore**: Neutral. The quotation was stable, shipping costs increased, the rainy season was approaching, supply slowed down, and Indonesian supply was loose [81]. - **Nickel Iron**: Slightly bearish. Nickel iron prices continued to decline, breaking through the 900 mark, and the cost line continued to fall [81]. - **Refined Nickel**: Slightly bearish. The long - term surplus pattern remained unchanged, and high inventories were difficult to change [81]. - **Stainless Steel**: Slightly bearish. Inventories increased slightly, and there was an oversupply [81]. - **New Energy**: Slightly bearish. Production data was good, but the substitution of ternary batteries continued [81].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View - The fundamentals of aluminum are neutral due to capacity expansion control by carbon neutrality, weak downstream demand, and a soft real - estate market, along with volatile short - term macro sentiment [2]. - The basis shows a neutral state with the spot price at 21370 and a basis of 30, indicating a premium over the futures [2]. - The inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminum increased by 8817 tons to 123716 tons last week, remaining neutral [2]. - The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average while the 20 - day moving average is upward, a neutral signal [2]. - The main positions are net long but the long positions are decreasing, showing a bullish bias [2]. - In the long run, carbon neutrality will drive changes in the aluminum industry, which is bullish for aluminum prices. With improved macro sentiment, aluminum prices are expected to be strong [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - The overall assessment of aluminum is a combination of neutral and bullish factors. The long - term outlook is positive due to carbon neutrality, but short - term factors are complex [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - **Likely Positive Factors**: Carbon neutrality controls capacity expansion; geopolitical issues between Russia and Ukraine affect Russian aluminum supply; potential interest rate cuts [3]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: The global economy is not optimistic, and high aluminum prices will suppress downstream consumption; the cancellation of export tax rebates for aluminum products [3]. - **Logic**: There is a game between interest rate cuts and weak demand [3]. Daily Summary - **Spot Prices**: The Shanghai spot middle - price was 70770, down 375; the South China spot price was 70690, down 450; the Yangtze River spot price was 70870, down 400 [4]. - **Inventory**: The warehouse receipt inventory was 70798 tons, an increase of 699 tons; LME inventory was 74750 tons, a decrease of 425 tons; SHFE inventory increased by 29728 tons [4]. Supply - Demand Balance - From 2018 - 2023, China's aluminum market was generally in a state of supply shortage, with shortages ranging from 4.31 million tons to 68.61 million tons. In 2024, it is expected to have a surplus of 15 million tons [21].

Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The supply side of copper has disturbances, smelting enterprises have production reduction actions, and the scrap copper policy has been liberalized. In October, China's manufacturing production activities slowed down compared with the previous month, and the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) dropped to 49.0%. The copper market is neutral in terms of fundamentals. The spot price is 85,870 with a basis of 210, showing a premium over futures, also neutral. Copper inventories decreased by 2,900 to 155,025 tons on November 21, while SHFE copper inventories increased by 1,196 tons to 110,603 tons compared with last week, remaining neutral. The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average which is moving downward, indicating a bearish signal. The main net position is long but the long positions are decreasing, showing a bullish tendency. Overall, with inventory recovery and geopolitical disturbances, and the fermentation of the Grasberg Block Cave mine incident in Indonesia, copper prices are expected to oscillate at high levels [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - Copper's fundamentals are neutral due to supply - side disturbances, smelting production cuts, liberalized scrap copper policy, and a decline in China's manufacturing PMI in October. The basis shows a premium over futures, being neutral. Inventory changes are neutral. The price trend is bearish as the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average. The main net long position with decreasing long positions is bullish. Copper prices are expected to oscillate at high levels [2] Recent利多利空Analysis - The logic involves global policy easing and the escalation of the trade - war, but specific利多 and利空 factors are not detailed [3] Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, it will be in a tight - balance state. The China annual supply - demand balance table shows production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance data from 2018 to 2024. For example, in 2024, production is 12.06 million tons, imports are 3.73 million tons, exports are 0.46 million tons, apparent consumption is 15.34 million tons, actual consumption is 15.23 million tons, and there is a supply - demand balance of 0.11 million tons [20][22] Inventory - On November 21, copper inventories decreased by 2,900 to 155,025 tons, and SHFE copper inventories increased by 1,196 tons to 110,603 tons compared with last week. The bonded - area inventory has rebounded from a low level [2][13] Processing Fee - The processing fee has declined [16]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 白糖早报——2025年11月24日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 2、基差：柳州现货5670，基差317（01合约），升水期货；偏多。 3、库存：截至8月底24/25榨季工业库存116万吨；中性。 4、盘面：20日均线向下，k线在20日均线下方，偏空。 5、主力持仓：持仓偏空，净持仓空减，主力趋势偏空，偏空。 利多：国内消费较好，库存降低，糖浆关税增加。美国 可乐改变配方使用蔗糖。 利空：白糖全球产量增加，新一年度全球供应过剩。外 糖价格跌至14美分/磅附近，进口利润窗口打开，进口 冲击加大。 • 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the 01 contract showed an upward trend. The opening price on Monday was 87,700 yuan/ton, and the closing price on Friday was 91,020 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 3.79%. It is expected that next week, the supply side will continue to increase production, the demand side will continue to grow, and costs will remain low. The market may experience a bullish and volatile adjustment [4][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Review and Outlook - **Supply Side**: This week, the lithium carbonate production was 22,130 tons, higher than the historical average. Lithium spodumene production was 13,344 tons, a 3.41% week-on-week increase; lithium mica production was 2,971 tons, a 1.02% week-on-week increase; salt lake production was 3,635 tons, a 2.25% week-on-week increase; and recycling production was 2,180 tons, a 1.63% week-on-week increase [4]. - **Demand Side**: In October 2025, the demand for lithium carbonate was 126,961 physical tons, a month-on-month increase of 8.70%. The predicted demand for next month is 132,001 physical tons, a 3.97% month-on-month increase. In October 2025, the export volume of lithium carbonate was 246 physical tons, a 62.91% month-on-month increase, and the predicted export volume for next month is 454 physical tons, an 84.55% month-on-month increase [5]. - **Cost Side**: The cost of externally purchased lithium spodumene concentrate was 89,670 yuan/ton, a 1.97% day-on-day decrease, with a production profit of 1,350 yuan/ton. The cost of externally purchased lithium mica was 93,596 yuan/ton, a 3.56% day-on-day decrease, with a production loss of 4,836 yuan/ton. The production cost on the recycling side was generally higher than that on the ore side, with negative production profits and low production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost on the salt lake side was 31,477 yuan/ton, significantly lower than that on the ore side, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [6]. - **Inventory Side**: The smelter inventory was 26,104 tons, a 7.66% week-on-week decrease; the downstream inventory was 44,436 tons, an 8.89% week-on-week decrease; other inventories were 47,880 tons, a 10.25% week-on-week increase; and the total inventory was 118,420 tons, a 1.70% week-on-week decrease [7]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Price and Basis**: The report presents the trends of the main lithium carbonate futures contract, including price, basis, and trading volume [12]. - **Lithium Ore Supply**: It shows the price trends of lithium ore, the production of Chinese sample lithium spodumene mines, the total domestic lithium mica production, the monthly import volume of lithium concentrate, the self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore, and the weekly inventory of port traders and unsold lithium ore [15]. - **Lithium Carbonate Supply**: It includes the weekly and monthly production, capacity, and import volume of lithium carbonate from different sources (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt lake, and recycling), as well as the supply - demand balance table [21][27]. - **Lithium Hydroxide Supply**: It shows the weekly capacity utilization rate, monthly production, and export volume of lithium hydroxide, as well as the supply - demand balance table [29][31]. - **Lithium Compound Cost and Profit**: It analyzes the cost - profit situations of externally purchased lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica concentrate, and various recycled materials for lithium carbonate production, as well as the profit situations of lithium carbonate purification, lithium hydroxide processing, and exports [34][36][39]. - **Inventory**: It presents the warehouse receipts, weekly and monthly inventories of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide [41]. - **Lithium Battery Demand**: It shows the price trends, production, export volume, and inventory of lithium batteries, as well as the cost of battery cells [44][47]. - **Ternary Precursor Demand**: It includes the price, cost, processing fee, capacity utilization rate, production, and supply - demand balance of ternary precursors [50][53]. - **Ternary Material Demand**: It shows the price, cost - profit, processing fee, production, export and import volume, and inventory of ternary materials [56][58]. - **Phosphorus Iron/Phosphorus Iron Lithium Demand**: It presents the price, cost - profit, production, export volume, and inventory of phosphorus iron and phosphorus iron lithium [60][63]. - **New Energy Vehicle Demand**: It shows the production, export volume, sales volume, sales penetration rate, retail - wholesale ratio, and dealer inventory of new energy vehicles [68][72]. 3.3 Technical Analysis - This week, the main 01 contract showed an upward trend. The report presents the price trends of the LC main contract, including opening price, highest price, lowest price, closing price, and moving averages (ma10, ma5, ma20, ma60, ma120), and predicts that the market may experience a bullish and volatile adjustment next week [75].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply-side production scheduling has decreased, and it is near the historical average level. Demand recovery remains at a low level, while cost support has increased. The 2601 contract of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8855 - 9065 [6]. - **Polysilicon**: In the short term, supply-side production scheduling has decreased, but it is expected to recover in the medium term. Demand shows a continuous decline in silicon wafer, cell, and module production. Cost support remains stable. The 2601 contract of polysilicon is expected to fluctuate in the range of 52510 - 54210 [9]. - **Overall**: The main logic of the market is capacity clearance, cost support, and demand growth. Positive factors include rising costs and manufacturers' plans for production cuts. Negative factors are the slow post - holiday demand recovery and the oversupply in the downstream polysilicon market [13][14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: Last week, the supply of industrial silicon was 91,000 tons, remaining unchanged from the previous week [6]. - **Demand**: Last week, the demand for industrial silicon was 80,000 tons, a 4.76% decrease from the previous week, indicating persistent weak demand [6]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of crystalline silicon is 271,000 tons, at a low level; the inventory of silicone is 56,300 tons, also at a low level; the inventory of aluminum alloy ingots is 75,200 tons, at a high level; and the social inventory is 548,000 tons, a 0.37% increase from the previous week [6]. - **Cost**: The production of sample oxygen - ventilated 553 in Xinjiang is at a loss of 2,874 yuan/ton, and the cost support has increased during the dry season [6]. - **Basis**: On November 21st, the spot price of non - oxygen - ventilated silicon in East China was 9,350 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was 390 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed below the MA20 [6]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position has decreased [6]. Polysilicon - **Supply**: Last week, the output of polysilicon was 27,100 tons, a 1.11% increase from the previous week. The scheduled production for November is expected to be 120,100 tons, a 10.37% decrease from the previous month [8]. - **Demand**: Last week, the output of silicon wafers was 12.78GW, a 2.59% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory was 187,200 tons, a 1.62% increase from the previous week. Currently, silicon wafer production is at a loss. The scheduled production for November is 57.66GW, a 4.92% decrease from the previous month. The production of cells and modules also shows a downward trend [8]. - **Cost**: The average cost of N - type polysilicon materials in the industry is 38,920 yuan/ton, with a production profit of 12,080 yuan/ton [11]. - **Basis**: On November 21st, the price of N - type dense materials was 51,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 1,060 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [11]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory is 271,000 tons, a 1.49% increase from the previous week, at a historical low [11]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed below the MA20 [11]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position has decreased [11]. 3.2 Market Overview - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures prices of various contracts generally declined. The spot prices of different grades of industrial silicon remained stable. Inventory levels showed varying degrees of increase, while some production and output indicators remained stable or slightly decreased [17]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures prices of various contracts showed different degrees of increase. The prices of silicon wafers, cells, and modules remained mostly stable. The weekly inventory of polysilicon increased, and the monthly supply - demand balance showed a certain degree of imbalance [19]. 3.3 Price and Inventory Trends - **Industrial Silicon**: The price - basis and delivery product price difference trends, inventory trends, production and capacity utilization trends, and cost trends are presented through charts, showing the historical changes and current status of relevant indicators [21][27][30][37]. - **Polysilicon**: The disk price trend, supply - demand balance trend, and the trends of downstream products such as silicon wafers, cells, and modules are presented through charts, reflecting the market situation of polysilicon and its downstream industries [24][63][69]. 3.4 Downstream Industry Trends - **Organic Silicon**: The production, price, and inventory trends of DMC and its downstream products are presented. The DMC production capacity utilization rate remained stable, and the profit and cost showed certain fluctuations. The inventory of DMC increased slightly [45][47][50]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price, supply, inventory, and production trends of aluminum alloy are presented. The price of aluminum alloy decreased slightly, and the inventory and production showed different trends [53][56]. - **Polysilicon**: The cost, price, supply - demand balance, and the trends of downstream products such as silicon wafers, cells, and modules are presented. The cost of polysilicon remained stable, and the supply - demand balance showed a certain degree of imbalance [63][66][69].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed meal RM2601 will fluctuate in the range of 2420 - 2480. It is affected by the soybean meal trend and technical shock consolidation, and the market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The spot demand peak season is over, but low inventory supports the market. The contract will maintain range - bound in the short term due to soybean meal influence [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints - Rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to oscillate between 2420 and 2480. The market is neutral in terms of fundamentals, with the price below the 20 - day moving average but trending upwards. The basis is 99, indicating a premium over futures, which is bullish. The inventory decreased by 2.78% week - on - week and 20.45% year - on - year, also bullish. The main long positions decreased with capital outflow, but still considered bullish. The contract is expected to return to an oscillating pattern due to uncertainties in the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed and rumors of improved Sino - Canadian trade relations [9]. 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the post - holiday off - season, with short - term supply expected to be tight and demand decreasing, suppressing the market. Canadian rapeseed is in the harvesting stage, but Sino - Canadian trade issues may reduce short - term exports. China's preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports is established, with a 75.8% import deposit. Global rapeseed production is increasing, and the geopolitical conflict in Eastern Europe may support commodity prices [11]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors include the preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and low inventory pressure on oil mills' rapeseed meal. Bearish factors are the approaching off - season of domestic rapeseed meal demand and the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping result on Canadian rapeseed imports [12]. 4. Fundamental Data - From November 13th to 21st, the average trading price of soybean meal ranged from 3061 to 3106 yuan/ton, and the trading volume from 7.47 to 40.05 million tons. The average trading price of rapeseed meal was between 2510 and 2600 yuan/ton, with zero trading volume. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly [13]. - From November 13th to 21st, the price of rapeseed meal futures' main 2601 contract ranged from 2412 to 2492 yuan/ton, and the far - month 2605 contract from 2367 to 2429 yuan/ton. The rapeseed meal spot price in Fujian was between 2510 and 2600 yuan/ton [15]. - From November 12th to 21st, rapeseed meal warehouse receipts decreased from 2745 to 0. There was no change from November 12th to 18th, a decrease of 745 on November 19th, no change on November 20th, and a decrease of 2000 on November 21st [17]. - The price of imported rapeseed is affected by tariffs, with no shipping schedule forecast for November. The inventory of oil mills' rapeseed and rapeseed meal is at a low level, and the rapeseed crushing volume remains zero [23][25][27]. - The price of aquatic fish has slightly declined, while the price of shrimp and shellfish has remained stable [35].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The soybean meal M2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2980 - 3040. The domestic soybean meal market is influenced by the US soybean trend, with short - term demand in the off - season and spot price discounts suppressing the upward movement of the futures price. It is likely to maintain a volatile pattern [9]. - The soybean A2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4060 - 4160. The domestic soybean market is affected by the US soybean trend, the cost - performance advantage of domestic soybeans compared to imported ones, and the expected increase in domestic soybean production, resulting in a short - term volatile situation [11]. - The short - term soybean meal market is in an interval - oscillation pattern, affected by factors such as the preliminary agreement of Sino - US tariff negotiations, the high - level arrival of imported soybeans, the decrease in domestic pig - breeding profits, and the relatively high inventory of domestic oil - mill soybean meal [13]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Tips - Soybean meal M2601: It is expected to oscillate between 2980 and 3040. The fundamentals are neutral; the basis is bearish; the inventory situation is bearish; the price on the disk is neutral; the main position is bearish; the short - term is expected to maintain an interval - oscillation pattern [9]. - Soybean A2601: It is expected to oscillate between 4060 and 4160. The fundamentals are neutral; the basis is neutral; the inventory situation is bearish; the price on the disk is neutral; the main position is bearish; the short - term is expected to maintain an interval - oscillation pattern [11]. 3.2 Recent News - The preliminary agreement of Sino - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans, but the quantity of China's soybean purchases and the US soybean weather are still uncertain. The US soybean market is strongly oscillating above the 1000 - point mark in the short term [13]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China decreased in November, and the soybean inventory of oil mills also declined from the high level in November. The soybean meal market has returned to an interval - oscillation pattern [13]. - The decrease in domestic pig - breeding profits has led to a low expectation of pig replenishment, and the demand for soybean meal weakened in November, suppressing the price expectation of soybean meal [13]. - The relatively high inventory of domestic oil - mill soybean meal, the possibility of weather speculation in the US soybean - producing areas, and the preliminary agreement of Sino - US trade negotiations have caused the short - term soybean meal market to maintain an interval - oscillation pattern [13]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns 3.3.1 Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: The preliminary agreement of Sino - US trade negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans; the inventory of domestic oil - mill soybean meal is not under pressure; the weather in the US and South American soybean - producing areas is still uncertain [14]. - Bearish factors: The total arrival volume of imported soybeans in China remained relatively high in November; under normal weather conditions, South American soybeans are expected to have a good harvest [15]. 3.3.2 Soybean - Bullish factors: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean disk; the expected increase in domestic demand for soybeans supports the price expectation [16]. - Bearish factors: The good harvest of Brazilian soybeans and China's increased purchases of Brazilian soybeans; the expected increase in the production of new - season domestic soybeans suppresses the price expectation of beans [16]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Global soybean supply - demand balance: From 2015 to 2024, the harvest area, output, and total supply of soybeans generally showed an upward trend, while the inventory - to - consumption ratio fluctuated [33]. - Domestic soybean supply - demand balance: From 2015 to 2024, the harvest area, output, and import volume of domestic soybeans changed, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio also fluctuated [34]. - The sowing and harvesting progress of soybeans in Argentina, the US, and Brazil in different years is provided, including the sowing rate, emergence rate, excellent - good rate, flowering rate, pod - setting rate, defoliation rate, and harvesting rate [35][36][37][38][39][40][41][42][43][44]. - The monthly supply - demand report of the USDA in the past six months shows changes in planting area, yield per unit, output, ending inventory, new - bean exports, and crushing volume [46]. - The weekly export inspection of US soybeans increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year; the arrival volume of imported soybeans decreased from the high level in November but increased year - on - year overall [47][49]. 3.5 Position Data - The main short positions in the soybean meal market increased, and funds flowed out [9]. - The main short positions in the soybean market increased, and funds flowed out [11]. 3.6 Other Market Conditions - The futures price of soybean meal oscillated downward, the spot price was relatively stable, and the spot discount narrowed slightly [24]. - The soybean input volume of oil mills remained at a high level, and the soybean meal output in September increased year - on - year [26][54]. - The low - level procurement and pick - up volume of domestic downstream industries increased [28]. - The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly, and the price difference of the 2601 contract also fluctuated slightly [30]. - The import cost of Brazilian soybeans decreased following the US soybeans, and the disk profit fluctuated slightly [56]. - The pig inventory continued to rise, the sow inventory was flat year - on - year and decreased slightly month - on - month [58]. - The pig price fluctuated slightly recently, and the piglet price remained weak [60]. - The proportion of large pigs in China increased, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs increased slightly [62]. - The domestic pig - breeding profit decreased slightly [64].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic pig market is in the off - season after the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day. Supply is expected to decrease this week as large farms reduce their slaughter. Demand is also weak as consumer willingness declines after the long holiday. The market may see a double - decline in supply and demand, with short - term pig prices oscillating downward and medium - term prices maintaining a range - bound pattern. The report suggests paying attention to the monthly group farm slaughter rhythm and the dynamics of the secondary fattening market [10]. - The basis shows that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price, which is a bullish signal. However, inventory, market trends, and main positions all indicate a bearish outlook. Overall, it is expected that pig prices will bottom out and return to an oscillatory pattern this week, with the LH2601 contract oscillating between 11,200 and 11,600 [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints - The supply of pigs and pork is expected to decrease this week. The market may experience a double - decline in supply and demand, with short - term pig prices oscillating downward and medium - term prices maintaining a range - bound pattern. Attention should be paid to the monthly group farm slaughter rhythm and the dynamics of the secondary fattening market [10]. 2. Recent News - The domestic pig consumption market is affected by the off - season. After the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day, the slaughter of large pigs has decreased, resulting in a double - decline in supply and demand. Spot prices are short - term weak but may bottom out and rebound, with medium - term prices maintaining a range - bound pattern [12]. - Pig farming profits have recently expanded their losses, reducing the short - term enthusiasm for large pig slaughter. The double - decline in supply and demand supports short - term pig futures and spot price expectations [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish Factors**: The domestic pig supply is in the off - season after the long holiday, and there may be limited room for further decline in domestic pig spot prices [13]. - **Bearish Factors**: The domestic macro - environment is expected to improve due to the preliminary Sino - US trade agreement, and the year - on - year increase in domestic pig inventory [13]. - **Main Logic**: The market focuses on pig slaughter and fresh meat demand [13]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Supply - side Indicators**: - As of September 30, the pig inventory was 436.8 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.2% and a year - on - year increase of 2.3%. As of the end of September, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.35 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.01% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.66% [10]. - As of March 31, the pig inventory was 408.5 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 5.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.2%. As of the end of May 2024, the inventory of breeding sows was 39.96 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.2% [28]. - **Demand - side Indicators**: The report mentions that after the long holiday, consumer willingness has declined, suppressing short - term fresh pork consumption [10]. 5. Position Data - The main positions are net short, and short positions are increasing, which is a bearish signal [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For coking coal, the overall production of origin mines has decreased due to safety inspections and internal issues in some areas, with no obvious inventory pressure. However, the poor profitability of coking and steel enterprises, along with the decline of the black - series futures market, has led to cautious downstream procurement. The price of some coal types is under downward pressure, and most remain stable. It is expected that the coking coal price will remain stable in the short term [2]. - For coke, the cost of coking enterprises' incoming coal has decreased due to the recent price adjustment of some raw coal. Most coking enterprises maintain a slight profit, and the supply is increasing steadily. The coking enterprises' inventory has increased slightly, and the pressure is not large. The market supply has improved, while the demand - side steel mills mainly purchase on - demand. The coke supply - demand structure has changed from tight to a weak balance, and the price is expected to remain stable in the short term [6]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price - On November 21st (17:30), the port metallurgical coke price index showed that the prices of various types of metallurgical coke in ports such as Rizhao Port, Tianzhao Port, and Huangdao Port decreased by 10 yuan, while some prices remained unchanged [10]. 3.2 Inventory - **Port Inventory**: Coking coal port inventory is 295 million tons, a decrease of 0.1 million tons from last week; coke port inventory is 195.1 million tons, an increase of 1 million tons from last week [18]. - **Independent Coking Enterprise Inventory**: Independent coking enterprises' coking coal inventory is 819.3 million tons, a decrease of 69.2 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 42.5 million tons, an increase of 3.5 million tons from last week [22]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: Steel mill coking coal inventory is 803.8 million tons, an increase of 4.3 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 626.7 million tons, a decrease of 13.3 million tons from last week [27]. 3.3 Other Data - **Coking Plant Capacity Utilization Rate**: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises nationwide is 74.48% [40]. - **Average Profit per Ton of Coke**: The average profit per ton of coke of 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 25 yuan [44].