Report Summary Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the fuel oil industry. Core Viewpoints The report analyzes the fuel oil market from multiple aspects, including fundamentals, basis, inventory, market trends, and positions. It concludes that the market is influenced by various factors such as geopolitical risks, supply - demand dynamics, and interest rate policies. The fuel oil prices are expected to move in the ranges of 2490 - 2540 for FU2601 and 3020 - 3070 for LU2601. The market is affected by both bullish and bearish factors, with supply being influenced by geopolitical risks and demand remaining neutral [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - The report presents comprehensive analysis of the fuel oil market, including fundamentals, basis, inventory, market trends, and positions. It also provides expected price ranges for FU2601 and LU2601 [3]. 2. Multi - Air Concerns - Bullish factors: Russian fuel export restrictions and the cancellation of US - Russia talks along with sanctions on Russian oil - related enterprises [4]. - Bearish factors: Uncertainty in demand optimism and pressure on upstream crude oil [4]. 3. Fundamental Data - Fundamentals: High - sulfur fuel oil spot demand is mostly weak, with sufficient supply in Singapore in November, potentially pressuring prices in late November and December. The basis shows that the spot is nearly at par with the futures. The inventory in Singapore increased by 257 barrels to 2344.9 barrels in the week of November 19. The price is below the 20 - day line which is trending down. High - sulfur main positions are short and decreasing, while low - sulfur main positions are long and increasing [3]. 4. Spread Data - The report provides data on the basis of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils in Singapore. The basis of high - sulfur fuel oil is 10 yuan/ton, and that of low - sulfur fuel oil is 47 yuan/ton [3]. 5. Inventory Data - The inventory data shows the changes in Singapore's fuel oil inventory from September 10 to November 19. The inventory in the week of November 19 was 2344.9 barrels, an increase of 257 barrels [8]. Market Data - Futures market: The current prices of FU and LU main contracts are 2500 and 3055 respectively, down 29 and 62 from the previous values, with declines of 1.15% and 1.99%. The basis of FU remained unchanged, while that of LU decreased by 20, a decline of 29.52% [5]. - Spot market: The prices of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils in Zhoushan and Singapore have changed. For example, the price of high - sulfur fuel oil in Zhoushan decreased by 11 to 445, a decline of 2.41% [6].

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report [2] - Report Date: November 25, 2025 [2] - Analyst: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - LLDPE is expected to trade sideways today due to an oversupply in the fundamentals, a decline in downstream demand, and a moderately high industrial inventory [4] - PP is also expected to trade sideways today, with an oversupply in the fundamentals, average downstream demand, and a moderately high industrial inventory [6] Summary by Category LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In October, the official PMI was 49, down 0.8 points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing sentiment. After the China-US summit, OPEC+ adjusted the crude oil market from undersupply to oversupply in November, causing oil prices to fall. Agricultural film demand declined, while other films were mainly for essential needs. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 6,840 (-0), with overall bearish fundamentals [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is 47, with a premium ratio of 0.7%, which is bullish [4] - **Inventory**: PE's comprehensive inventory is 554,000 tons (-25,000), which is bearish [4] - **Market**: The 20-day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20-day line, which is bearish [4] - **Main Position**: The net long position of the LLDPE main contract increased, which is bullish [4] - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to trade sideways [4] - **Likely Factors**: New sanctions on Russian oil may cause oil prices to rebound, and the China-US summit reached a phased easing [5] - **Negative Factors**: Demand is weaker year-on-year, and there are many new production launches in the fourth quarter [5] - **Main Logic**: Oversupply and domestic macro policies [5] PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the macro situation is bearish. The demand for plastic weaving is average, while the demand for pipes has increased. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 6,380 (-0), with overall bearish fundamentals [6] - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is 8, with a premium ratio of 0.1%, which is neutral [6] - **Inventory**: PP's comprehensive inventory is 594,000 tons (-26,000), which is bearish [6] - **Market**: The 20-day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20-day line, which is bearish [6] - **Main Position**: The net short position of the PP main contract decreased, but it is still bearish [6] - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to trade sideways [6] - **Likely Factors**: Similar to LLDPE, new sanctions on Russian oil and a phased easing in China-US relations [7] - **Negative Factors**: Similar to LLDPE, weaker demand year-on-year and many new production launches in the fourth quarter [7] - **Main Logic**: Oversupply and domestic macro policies [7] Supply and Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polyethylene generally showed an increasing trend, while the import dependence gradually decreased. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 4.3195 billion tons, with a growth rate of 20.5% [13] - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polypropylene also showed an increasing trend, and the import dependence gradually decreased. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 4.906 billion tons, with a growth rate of 11.0% [15]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2025年11月25日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 PTA 每日观点 PTA： 1、基本面：昨日PTA期货涨后回落，现货市场商谈氛围一般，现货基差走强，个别聚酯工厂递盘。个别主流供应商出远期货源。 本周下周在01贴水45~53商谈成交，价格商谈区间在4590~4665附近。12月下在01-40附近成交。1月在01-28~34附近有成交。本 周仓单在01-42附近有成交。今日主流现货基差在01-49。中性 5、主力持仓：净多 多增 偏多 6、预期：近期伴随PTA供应减量较预期增加、聚酯负荷坚挺且印度BIS取消提振PTA出口需求， PTA累库预期扭转，不排除阶段 性去库，PTA现货基差表现强势。不过绝对 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - The supply - demand of lithium carbonate is in a tight balance, and the market is affected by emotional fluctuations triggered by news. The lithium carbonate 2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 88,700 - 92,260 yuan/ton [8][10][13] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily View - **Supply**: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 22,130 tons, a 2.71% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average [8] - **Demand**: Last week, the inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate was 102,584 tons, a 2.05% week - on - week decrease; the inventory of sample enterprises of ternary materials was 19,290 tons, a 0.41% week - on - week increase [8] - **Cost**: The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate was 89,670 yuan/ton, a 1.97% daily decrease, with a profit of 1,350 yuan/ton; the cost of purchased lithium mica was 93,596 yuan/ton, a 3.56% daily decrease, with a loss of 4,836 yuan/ton. The cost of the recycling end is generally higher than that of the ore end, and the production enthusiasm is low. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end is 31,477 yuan/ton, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [10] - **Fundamentals**: Neutral. The basis of the 01 contract was 1,670 yuan/ton on November 24, with the spot at a premium to the futures, which is bullish. The overall inventory decreased by 1.70% week - on - week, higher than the historical average, which is neutral. The MA20 of the market is upward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed above the MA20, which is bullish. The net short position of the main contract decreased, which is bearish [10] - **Expectation**: In October 2025, the lithium carbonate production was 92,260 physical tons, and the predicted production for next month is 92,080 physical tons, a 0.19% decrease. The import volume in October was 23,881 physical tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 27,000 physical tons, a 13.06% increase. The demand is expected to strengthen next month, and the inventory may be reduced. The 6% concentrate CIF price decreased daily, lower than the historical average, and the demand continued to strengthen [10] - **Likely factors**: Lithium mica manufacturers' plans to stop or reduce production, and the month - on - month decline in the amount of lithium carbonate imported from Chile [11] - **Negative factors**: The supply at the ore/salt lake end remains at a high level, and the decline is limited [12] 3.2 Lithium Carbonate Market Overview - **Prices**: The prices of various lithium - related products such as lithium spodumene, lithium mica, lithium salts, cathode materials, and lithium batteries showed different degrees of increase or decrease. For example, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 92,150 yuan/ton, a 0.16% decrease; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 89,750 yuan/ton, a 0.17% decrease [16] - **Registered Warehouse Receipts**: There were 26,510 lots, a 1.26% decrease [16] 3.3 Supply - Demand Data Overview - **Supply - side**: The weekly and monthly production, import, and export data of lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and other products are provided. For example, the monthly production of lithium carbonate in October 2025 was 92,260 tons, a 5.73% increase; the monthly import volume was 23,880.69 tons, a 21.86% increase [20] - **Demand - side**: The monthly production, export, and inventory data of downstream products such as lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and lithium batteries are provided. For example, the monthly export of lithium iron phosphate in October was 5,476,869 kg, a 77.13% increase; the weekly inventory of lithium iron phosphate was 102,584 tons, a 2.06% decrease [20] 3.4 Supply - Related Data - **Lithium Ore**: The price, production, import, and self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore over the years are presented through charts. The price of lithium ore has fluctuated over time, and the production and import volume have also changed [26] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The weekly and monthly production, import, and capacity data of lithium carbonate are provided. The weekly and monthly production of lithium carbonate has shown different trends, and the import volume has also changed [32] - **Lithium Hydroxide**: The weekly capacity utilization rate, monthly production, export, and import data of lithium hydroxide are provided. The weekly capacity utilization rate of lithium hydroxide has fluctuated, and the production and export volume have also changed [39] 3.5 Cost - Profit of Lithium Compounds - The cost - profit data of various lithium compounds such as purchased lithium spodumene concentrate, purchased lithium mica concentrate, and recycled lithium carbonate are provided. The cost and profit of different raw materials and production methods vary [44][46][49] 3.6 Inventory - The inventory data of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, including monthly and weekly inventory by source, are provided. The inventory of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide has shown different trends over time [51] 3.7 Demand - Related Data - **Lithium Batteries**: The price, production, export, and inventory data of lithium batteries are provided. The price and production of lithium batteries have changed, and the export volume has also shown different trends [54][57] - **Ternary Precursors**: The price, cost, profit, production, and supply - demand balance data of ternary precursors are provided. The price and cost - profit of ternary precursors have changed, and the supply - demand balance has also fluctuated [60][63] - **Ternary Materials**: The price, cost - profit, production, export, import, and inventory data of ternary materials are provided. The price and cost - profit of ternary materials have changed, and the production, export, import, and inventory have also shown different trends [66][68] - **Phosphoric Acid/Phosphoric Acid Lithium Iron**: The price, production cost, profit, production, and capacity data of phosphoric acid and lithium iron phosphate are provided. The price and cost - profit of phosphoric acid and lithium iron phosphate have changed, and the production and capacity have also shown different trends [70][73] - **New Energy Vehicles**: The production, sales, export, and penetration rate data of new energy vehicles are provided. The production, sales, and export of new energy vehicles have increased, and the penetration rate has also continued to rise [78][79]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The Shanghai zinc futures showed a volatile trend in the previous trading session, closing with a doji star, with increased trading volume. Both long and short positions increased, with a larger increase in short positions. Overall, it was a volatile market with high trading volume. In the short term, the market may weaken. Technically, the price is above the long - term moving average, which provides strong support. The short - term KDJ indicator is declining and operating in the weak area, while the trend indicator is rising, with the strength of long positions decreasing and that of short positions increasing, indicating a stalemate between the two sides. The Shanghai zinc ZN2601 is expected to decline in a volatile manner [2][19]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals - In September 2025, global refined zinc production was 1.1935 million tons, and consumption was 1.2292 million tons, resulting in a supply shortage of 35,700 tons. From January to September, global zinc sheet production was 10.3632 million tons, and consumption was 10.7369 million tons, with a supply shortage of 373,700 tons. In September, global zinc ore production was 1.1633 million tons. From January to September, global zinc ore production was 9.9647 million tons, which is a positive factor [2]. - The spot price was 22,470, and the basis was +80, indicating a neutral situation [2]. - On November 24, LME zinc inventory increased by 100 tons to 47,425 tons compared to the previous day, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange zinc inventory warrants increased by 1,744 to 74,641 tons compared to the previous day, which is a negative factor [2]. - The previous day, Shanghai zinc showed a volatile trend, closing below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average was downward, which is a negative factor [2]. - The main net position was short, and the short positions decreased, which is a negative factor [2]. 3.2 Futures Exchange Zinc Futures Quotes on November 24 - The trading volume of zinc futures on November 24 was 190,745 lots, and the trading value was 2.13195037 billion yuan. The total open interest was 193,287 lots, a decrease of 1,957 lots compared to the previous day [3]. 3.3 Domestic Main Spot Market Quotes on November 24 - The domestic zinc concentrate treatment charge (TC) was 2,300 yuan/metal ton, a decrease of 300 yuan/metal ton; the imported zinc concentrate TC was 80 US dollars/dry ton, a decrease of 10 US dollars/dry ton [4]. - The price of 0 zinc in Shanghai was 22,420 - 22,520 yuan/ton, with an average price of 22,470 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 22,230 - 22,330 yuan/ton, with an average price of 22,280 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton; in Tianjin, it was 22,340 - 22,440 yuan/ton, with an average price of 22,390 yuan/ton, a decrease of 65 yuan/ton; in Zhejiang, it was 22,510 - 22,610 yuan/ton, with an average price of 22,560 yuan/ton, an increase of 55 yuan/ton [4]. 3.4 National Main Market Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics (November 13 - 24, 2025) - The total inventory of zinc ingots in the main markets in China on November 24 was 151,700 tons, a decrease of 10,700 tons compared to November 17 and a decrease of 8,200 tons compared to November 20 [5]. 3.5 Futures Exchange Zinc Warrant Report on November 24 - The total zinc warrants on the Shanghai Futures Exchange on November 24 were 74,641 tons, an increase of 1,744 tons compared to the previous day [6]. 3.6 LME Zinc Inventory Distribution and Statistics on November 24 - The previous day's inventory was 47,325 tons, with 600 tons of warehousing and 500 tons of ex - warehousing. The current inventory was 47,425 tons, an increase of 100 tons. The registered warrants were 44,350 tons, and the cancelled warrants were 3,075 tons, with a cancellation ratio of 6.48% [8]. 3.7 National Main City Zinc Concentrate Price Summary on November 24 - The prices of 50% - grade zinc concentrate in different regions increased, with increases ranging from 60 yuan/ton to 260 yuan/ton [10]. 3.8 National Market Zinc Ingot Smelter Price Quotes on November 24 - The prices of 0 zinc ingots from different smelters decreased by 60 yuan/ton [13]. 3.9 Domestic Refined Zinc Production in October 2025 - In October 2025, the planned production of refined zinc was 509,600 tons, and the actual production was 524,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.87%, a year - on - year increase of 18.38%, and a 2.88% increase compared to the planned value. The capacity utilization rate was 73.33%. The planned production in November was 522,300 tons [15]. 3.10 Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee Quotes on November 24 - The domestic zinc concentrate processing fees in different regions decreased, with decreases ranging from 100 yuan/metal ton to 400 yuan/metal ton. The imported zinc concentrate processing fee decreased by 10 US dollars/dry ton [17]. 3.11 Shanghai Futures Exchange Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking Table on November 24 - The total trading volume of zinc futures contracts (zn2601) of member futures companies was 135,976 lots, an increase of 62,090 lots compared to the previous day. The total long positions were 69,110 lots, an increase of 883 lots, and the total short positions were 64,028 lots, an increase of 2,921 lots [18].

Report Information - Report Title: Grease Morning Report - Date: November 25, 2025 - Analyst: Wang Mingwei - Qualification Number: F0283029 - Investment Consultation Number: Z0010442 - Tel: 0575 - 85226759 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The price of oils and fats is in a volatile consolidation. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. Sino - US relations are stalemated, the export of new US soybeans is frustrated, and the price is under pressure. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is neutral, the demand has improved, Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and the import inventory is stable [2][3][4] Summary by Category Daily Views - Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that in August, the production of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 9.8% month - on - month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% month - on - month to 1.49 million tons, and the month - end inventory decreased by 2.6% month - on - month to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, and the production cut is less than expected. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month shows a 4% month - on - month increase, and later it will enter the production - reducing season, so the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease [2] - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8362, the basis is 194, and the spot price is at a premium to the futures price, which is bullish [2] - **Inventory**: On September 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, compared with 1.16 million tons before, a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 11.7%, which is bearish [2] - **Market**: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is bearish [2] - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main contract of soybean oil are increasing, which is bullish [2] - **Expectation**: The price of soybean oil Y2601 will fluctuate in the range of 8000 - 8400 [2] Daily Views - Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, but later it will enter the production - increasing season, and the supply of palm oil will increase [3] - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 8562, the basis is 112, and the spot price is at a premium to the futures price, which is bullish [3] - **Inventory**: On September 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, compared with 570,000 tons before, a month - on - month increase of 10,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 34.1%, which is bullish [3] - **Market**: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is bearish [3] - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main contract of palm oil are increasing, which is bullish [3] - **Expectation**: The price of palm oil P2601 will fluctuate in the range of 8250 - 8650 [3] Daily Views - Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil [4] - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10156, the basis is 378, and the spot price is at a premium to the futures price, which is bullish [4] - **Inventory**: On September 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, compared with 550,000 tons before, a month - on - month increase of 10,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 3.2%, which is bearish [4] - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward, which is bullish [4] - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main contract of rapeseed oil are increasing, which is bullish [4] - **Expectation**: The price of rapeseed oil OI2601 will fluctuate in the range of 9600 - 10000 [4] Recent利多利空 Analysis - **Likely Positive Factors**: The inventory - to - sales ratio of US soybeans remains around 4%, indicating tight supply [5] - **Likely Negative Factors**: The price of oils and fats is at a relatively high historical level, and the domestic inventory of oils and fats is continuously increasing; the macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of relevant oils and fats is high [5] - **Current Main Logic**: The global fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively loose [5] Supply - Related - **Imported Soybean Inventory**: Report mentions it but no specific data analysis [6] - **Soybean Oil Inventory**: On September 22, it was 1.18 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 11.7% [2] - **Soybean Meal Inventory**: Data presented in graphical form from 2015 - 2025 [9][10] - **Oil Mill Soybean Pressing**: Data presented in graphical form from 2015 - 2025 [11][12] - **Palm Oil Inventory**: On September 22, it was 580,000 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 10,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 34.1% [3] - **Rapeseed Oil Inventory**: On September 22, it was 560,000 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 10,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 3.2% [4] - **Rapeseed Inventory**: Data presented in graphical form from 2015 - 2025 [21][22] - **Domestic Total Oil Inventory**: Data presented in graphical form from 2015 - 2019 [23][24] Demand - Related - **Soybean Oil Apparent Consumption**: Data presented in graphical form from 2015 - 2025 [13][14] - **Soybean Meal Apparent Consumption**: Data presented in graphical form from 2015 - 2025 [15][16]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-11-25锰硅早报 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 锰硅2601： 1.基本面：当前硅锰市场呈现"成本端坚挺、需求端疲软"的僵持博弈格局，受坚挺的成本以及下游压价影响，现货市场 调整有限；中性。 2.基差：现货价5650元/吨，01合约基差20/吨，现货升水期货。偏多。 3.库存：全国63家独立硅锰企业样本库存221800吨；全国50家钢厂库存平均可用天数15.49天。中性。 4.盘面：MA20向下，01合约期价收于MA20下方。偏空。 5.主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减。偏空。 2 -2000元/吨 0元/吨 2000元/吨 4000元/吨 6000元/吨 8000元/吨 10000元/吨 12000元/吨 14000元/吨 2020-01-01 2020- ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 玻璃早报 2025-11-25 每日观点 玻璃： 1、基本面：生产利润修复乏力但供给收缩不及预期；地产拖累下游深加工订单偏弱，库存同期历 史高位；偏空 2、基差：浮法玻璃河北沙河大板现货980元/吨，FG2601收盘价为1013元/吨，基差为-33元，期货 升水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国浮法玻璃企业库存6330.30万重量箱，较前一周增加0.09%，库存在5年均值上方运 行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：玻璃基本面疲弱，短期预计震荡偏弱运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、沙河地区"煤改气" ，行业冷修，产量损失。 利空： 1、地产终端需求依然疲弱，玻璃深加工企业订单 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **沪镍**: The overall outlook for Shanghai nickel is bearish. It is expected to oscillate in a low - level range, and investors are advised to sell on rebounds in the medium - to - long term [2]. - **不锈钢**: The stainless - steel market is under downward pressure and is expected to operate weakly [4]. 3. Summary by Directory **沪镍 Daily View** - **Fundamentals**: External prices are rebounding towards the 20 - day moving average. Some production capacities have cut output, leading to tight supply from companies like GEM. Nickel ore prices are firm, sea freight has a slight increase, and the 2026 RKAB quota in Indonesia is expected to be 3.19 billion tons, indicating ample supply. Nickel - iron prices continue to decline, and the cost - line center has dropped further. Stainless - steel inventory has a slight increase, and the demand remains weak. Refined nickel inventory is at a high level, and the oversupply situation persists. The new - energy vehicle production and sales data are good, but the overall boost to nickel demand is limited [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 117,750, and the basis is 2,220, which is bullish [2]. - **Inventory**: LME inventory is 253,482 (- 468), and the Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts are 34,493 (+ 708), which is bearish [2]. - **Market**: The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is bearish [2]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions are decreasing, which is bearish [2]. - **Conclusion**: Shanghai nickel 2601 will oscillate in a low - level range, and investors should sell on rebounds in the medium - to - long term [2]. **不锈钢 Daily View** - **Fundamentals**: The spot stainless - steel price has a slight decline. In the short term, nickel ore prices are firm, sea freight has a slight increase, nickel - iron prices are falling, the cost line continues to decline, and stainless - steel inventory has a slight increase [4]. - **Basis**: The average stainless - steel price is 13,275, and the basis is 940, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: The futures warehouse receipts are 64,382 (- 542), which is neutral [4]. - **Market**: The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is bearish [4]. - **Conclusion**: Stainless - steel 2601 is under downward pressure and will operate weakly [4]. **Price Overview** - **沪镍**: The Shanghai nickel main contract rose from 114,050 on November 21 to 115,530 on November 24, an increase of 1,480. LME nickel rose from 14,620 to 14,730, an increase of 110. Spot prices of various nickel products also increased to varying degrees [11]. - **不锈钢**: The stainless - steel main contract rose from 12,290 on November 21 to 12,335 on November 24, an increase of 45. Spot stainless - steel prices were relatively stable, with some showing slight declines [11]. **Inventory Situation** - **沪镍**: As of November 24, LME nickel inventory was 253,482 (- 468), and Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 34,493 (+ 708). The total inventory increased by 240 [14]. - **不锈钢**: As of November 21, the national stainless - steel inventory was 107.17 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.12 million tons. The 300 - series inventory was 65.88 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.12 million tons. As of November 24, the futures warehouse receipts were 64,382 (- 542) [18][19]. **Price of Nickel Ore and Nickel - Iron** - **Nickel Ore**: The prices of red - soil nickel ore CIF with Ni1.5% and Ni0.9% remained unchanged at 57 and 29 US dollars per wet ton respectively from November 21 to November 24. Sea freight from the Philippines to Lianyungang and Tianjin Port also remained unchanged [21]. - **Nickel - Iron**: The price of high - nickel wet tons (8 - 12) decreased from 891 to 889.5 yuan per nickel point, while the price of low - nickel wet tons (below 2) remained unchanged at 3,200 yuan per ton [21]. **Stainless - Steel Production Cost** - The traditional production cost is 12,461, the scrap - steel production cost is 12,761, and the low - nickel + pure - nickel production cost is 16,148 [23]. **Nickel Import Cost** The calculated import price is 118,139 yuan per ton [25].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - ISO, StoneX, and Czarnikow predict a surplus in the global sugar market for the 25/26 season, with estimates of 163, 277, and 740 million tons respectively [4][9][35] - As of the end of August 2025, China's cumulative sugar production for the 24/25 season was 1.11621 billion tons, and cumulative sugar sales were 1 billion tons, with a sales rate of 89.6% [4] - In October 2025, China imported 750,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 210,000 tons; imports of syrup and premixes totaled 115,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 110,500 tons [4][9] - The sugar futures main contract 01 has recently declined to a new low. Considering the approaching delivery, trading is recommended to shift to the 05 contract. After a short - term rapid decline, there may be a technical rebound, and it is recommended to partially take profits on short positions [5][9] Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review No relevant content provided. 2. Daily Tips - Fundamentals: Multiple institutions predict a surplus in the global sugar market for the 25/26 season, which is bearish. In 2025, China's sugar imports increased in October, while imports of syrup and premixes decreased. The cumulative sugar production and sales in the 24/25 season are as mentioned above [4] - Basis: The Liuzhou spot price is 5,610 yuan, with a basis of 240 yuan for the 01 contract, indicating a premium over futures, which is bullish [6] - Inventory: As of the end of August in the 24/25 season, the industrial inventory was 1.16 million tons, which is neutral [6] - Market: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [6] - Main Position: The net short position is decreasing, and the main trend is bearish, which is bearish [6] - Expectation: The sugar futures main contract 01 has recently declined to a new low. Considering the approaching delivery, trading is recommended to shift to the 05 contract. After a short - term rapid decline, there may be a technical rebound, and it is recommended to partially take profits on short positions [5][9] 3. Today's Focus No relevant content provided. 4. Fundamental Data - Supply and demand: Multiple institutions' predictions for the 25/26 season show a global sugar surplus. China's sugar production, sales, and import data for relevant periods are as described above. The tariff on imported syrup has increased since January 2025 [4][9] - Price: The international sugar price has been falling, and the import profit is considerable. The domestic sugar price range for the 25/26 season is predicted to be 5,500 - 6,000 yuan/ton [9][37] - Consumption: Domestic consumption is good, and inventory has decreased. The US cola changing its formula to use sucrose is a long - term positive factor [7][9] 5. Position Data No relevant content provided.