1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure of asphalt remains high as refineries have recently increased production. The overall demand recovery is less than expected and remains sluggish. Although the cost support from crude oil has strengthened in the short - term, the inventory situation is mixed with social inventory decreasing, factory inventory increasing, and port inventory decreasing. It is expected that the asphalt futures market will show a narrow - range oscillation in the short - term, with the asphalt 2601 contract oscillating between 3137 - 3177 [8][10]. - The cost of crude oil is relatively high, providing some support, but there is insufficient demand for high - priced asphalt products, and the overall demand is declining with an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [13][14]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply Side**: In August 2025, the total planned domestic asphalt production was 2.413 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. The sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt this week was 37.3921%, a month - on - month increase of 0.359 percentage points. The shipment of sample enterprises was 253,350 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.48%. The output of sample enterprises was 624,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.97%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment was 616,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.44%. Refineries have increased production this week, increasing supply pressure, and this may continue next week [8]. - **Demand Side**: The construction rate of heavy - traffic asphalt was 35.8%, a month - on - month increase of 0.04 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The construction rate of building asphalt was 18.2%, unchanged from the previous month, lower than the historical average. The construction rate of modified asphalt was 12.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.43 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The construction rate of road - modified asphalt was 29%, unchanged from the previous month, lower than the historical average. The construction rate of waterproofing membranes was 33.5%, a month - on - month increase of 3.50 percentage points, lower than the historical average. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [8]. - **Cost Side**: The daily processing profit of asphalt was - 299.81 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 8.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 718.39 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 18.59%. The processing loss of asphalt has decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has also decreased. With the strengthening of crude oil, it is expected that the support will strengthen in the short - term [9]. - **Other Aspects**: On October 21, the spot price in Shandong was 3340 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was 183 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price. Social inventory was 1.051 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.66%. Factory inventory was 727,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.36%. Port diluted asphalt inventory was 100,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16.66%. The MA20 of the market trend is downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed below the MA20. The net position of the main players is long, changing from short to long [11]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report provides the latest values, previous values, changes, and change rates of various indicators such as different contracts' prices, inventory, construction rates, and profits of asphalt [18]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis and Spread Analysis - **Basis Trend**: It shows the historical trends of the Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 - 2025 [20][21]. - **Spread Analysis**: It includes the spread trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts of asphalt, the price trends of asphalt, Brent oil, and West Texas oil, the cracking spread of crude oil, and the price - ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 - 2025 [23][26][29][33]. 3.4 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Different Regions - It presents the historical trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt prices from 2020 - 2025 [36][37]. 3.5 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: It shows the historical trends of asphalt profit and the profit spread between coking and asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [38][41]. - **Supply - Side Analysis**: It includes the trends of shipment volume, diluted asphalt port inventory, production volume (weekly and monthly), Marrow crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production, local refinery asphalt production, construction rate, and maintenance loss estimation from 2018 - 2025 [44][46][49][52][55][58][61]. - **Inventory Analysis**: It shows the trends of exchange warehouse receipts, social inventory, factory inventory, and factory inventory inventory - to - sales ratio from 2019 - 2025 [64][68][71]. - **Import and Export Analysis**: It presents the trends of asphalt export and import from 2019 - 2025, as well as the import price spread of South Korean asphalt from 2020 - 2025 [74][77][78]. - **Demand - Side Analysis**: It includes the trends of petroleum coke production, apparent consumption, downstream demand (highway construction, new local special bonds, infrastructure investment completion), downstream machinery demand (asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator sales, roller sales, excavator monthly working hours), asphalt construction rate (heavy - traffic asphalt, by - use asphalt), and downstream construction conditions (shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt) from 2019 - 2025 [80][83][86][90][95][98][100]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It provides the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to September 2025, including monthly production, import, export, social inventory, factory inventory, and downstream demand [105][106].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to fluctuate within the range of 2300 - 2360. It is affected by the pending final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports and rumors of tariff reduction between China and Canada, and has returned to a volatile pattern [9]. - The current market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [12]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints - Rapeseed meal RM2601 is in a range - bound state. The spot demand is in the short - term peak season, and the low inventory supports the market. However, after the National Day, the demand will gradually enter the off - season, and there are still variables in China - Canada trade consultations, so the short - term market lacks guidance [9]. 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the off - season after the long holiday, the supply in the spot market is expected to be tight in the short term, and the decreasing demand suppresses the market expectation. Canadian rapeseed is in the harvesting stage, but the China - Canada trade issue reduces the short - term export and domestic supply expectation [11]. - China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports has been established, and an import deposit of 75.8% has been imposed. The final result is still uncertain [11]. - Global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially in Canada where the output is higher than expected [11]. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and the decrease in Ukrainian rapeseed production and the increase in Russian rapeseed production offset each other. There is still a possibility of an increase in global geopolitical conflicts, which supports commodities [11]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and the low inventory pressure of oil mills on rapeseed meal [12]. - Bearish factors: The domestic rapeseed meal demand is gradually entering the off - season, and there is still a small probability of reconciliation in the final result of the anti - dumping on Canadian rapeseed imports [12]. 4. Fundamental Data - From October 13th to 21st, the average transaction price of soybean meal fluctuated between 2965 - 3004 yuan/ton, and the trading volume was between 6.51 - 21.79 million tons. The average transaction price of rapeseed meal was between 2460 - 2500 yuan/ton, and the trading volume was 0 [13]. - From October 13th to 21st, the price of rapeseed meal futures fluctuated, and the spot price was relatively stable. The spot premium fluctuated slightly [15][17]. - The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly, and the price difference of the 2601 contract between soybean meal and rapeseed meal oscillated at a low level [19]. - The import volume of rapeseed remained stable in October, and the import cost was affected by tariffs [22]. - The inventory of rapeseed in oil mills continued to decline, and the weekly inventory of rapeseed meal remained flat. The amount of rapeseed crushed in oil mills remained at a low level [24][26]. - The price of aquatic fish increased slightly, and the price of shrimp and shellfish remained stable [34]. 5. Position Data - The number of short positions of the main force decreased, and funds flowed in [9]. 6. Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - Fundamental analysis: The market is neutral as it is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports [9]. - Basis analysis: The spot price is 2460, the basis is 139, and the spot premium is positive for the futures [9]. - Inventory analysis: The rapeseed meal inventory is 1.75 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.78% and a year - on - year decrease of 20.45%, which is positive for the market [9]. - Market analysis: The price is below the 20 - day moving average and the direction is downward, which is negative for the market [9]. - Main position analysis: The short positions of the main force decreased, and funds flowed in, which is negative for the market [9]. - Expectation: Rapeseed meal is affected by the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed and rumors of tariff reduction between China and Canada, and has returned to a volatile pattern [9].

每日观点 供给端来看，据隆众统计，2025年9月PVC产量为203.0766万吨，环比减少2.05%；本周样本企业产能利 用率为76.69%，环比减少0.07个百分点；电石法企业产量31.772万吨，环比减少9.92%,乙烯法企业产量 14.966万吨，环比减少0.78%；本周供给压力有所减少；下周预计检修有所减少，预计排产少量增加。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PVC期货早报 2025年10月22日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 需求端来看，下游整体开工率为48.59%，环比增加.38个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游型材开工率为 33.26%，环比增加7.39个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游管材开工率为40%，环比增加.17个百分点， 低于历史平均水平；下游 ...

沪铝早报- 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 ：祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 近期利多利空分析 利多： 每日观点 铝: 利空： 1、基本面：碳中和控制产能扩张，下游需求不强劲，房地产延续疲软，宏观短期情绪多变；中性。 2、基差：现货20960，基差-5，贴水期货，中性。 3、库存：上期所铝库存较上周跌2749吨至 122028吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线上，20均线向上运行；偏多。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，多增；偏多。 6、预期：碳中和催发铝行业变革，长期利多铝价，美再扩大钢铝关税，多空交织，铝价震荡运行 逻辑： 降息和需求疲软博弈 1、碳中和控制产能扩张。 2、俄乌地缘政治扰动，影响俄铝供应。 3、降息 1、全球经济并不乐观，高铝价会压制下游消费。 2、铝材出口退税取消 每日汇总 | 现货 昨日 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively neutral, with stable imports and inventories. Sino-US relations are tense, which puts pressure on the prices of new US soybeans for export. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and the demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that in August, the production of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% month-on-month to 1.49 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% month-on-month to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, with less-than-expected production cuts. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month shows a 4% month-on-month increase, and the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease as it enters the production reduction season. [2] - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,492, with a basis of 198, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. [2] - **Inventory**: On August 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, an increase of 20,000 tons from the previous period and a year-on-year increase of 11.7%. [2] - **Market**: The futures price is running below the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is downward. [2] - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main soybean oil contract have decreased. [2] - **Expectation**: The price of soybean oil Y2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,000 - 8,500. [2] Daily View - Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is neutral, with less-than-expected production cuts. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month shows a 4% month-on-month increase, and the supply of palm oil will increase as it enters the production increase season. [3] - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 9,306, with a basis of 12, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price. [3] - **Inventory**: On August 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous period and a year-on-year decrease of 34.1%. [3] - **Market**: The futures price is running below the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is downward. [3] - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main palm oil contract have decreased. [3] - **Expectation**: The price of palm oil P2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,100 - 9,500. [3] Daily View - Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report is neutral, with less-than-expected production cuts. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month shows a 4% month-on-month increase, and the supply of palm oil will increase as it enters the production increase season. [4] - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10,191, with a basis of 327, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. [4] - **Inventory**: On August 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous period and a year-on-year increase of 3.2%. [4] - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward. [4] - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have decreased. [4] - **Expectation**: The price of rapeseed oil OI2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,700 - 10,100. [4] Recent Bullish and Bearish Analysis - **Bullish**: The US soybean stock-to-use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. There is a tremor season for palm oil. [5] - **Bearish**: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high level historically, and the domestic inventory of oils and fats continues to accumulate. The macroeconomy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high. [5] - **Main Logic**: The global fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively loose. [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The short - term view is that the previous trading day saw Shanghai Zinc oscillate and rebound, with increased trading volume and both long and short positions increasing, more so for the long positions. The market may oscillate and weaken in the short term. Technically, the price is below the long - term moving average with weak support. The short - term KDJ indicator is rising in the weak area, the trend indicator is falling, the long - side strength is rising, the short - side strength is falling, and the dominance of the short - side is narrowing. It is recommended that Shanghai Zinc ZN2512 will oscillate and weaken [17]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Information - In August 2025, global zinc plate production was 1150700 tons, consumption was 1171700 tons, with a supply shortage of 21000 tons. From January to August 2025, production was 9088500 tons, consumption was 9369800 tons, with a supply shortage of 281300 tons. In August 2025, global zinc ore production was 1069600 tons, and from January to August 2025, it was 8445700 tons, which is bullish [2]. - The basis is +10 with a spot price of 21980, which is neutral [2]. - On October 21, LME zinc inventory decreased by 50 tons to 37275 tons, and SHFE zinc inventory warrants decreased by 151 tons to 66268 tons, which is bullish [2]. - The previous day, Shanghai Zinc oscillated and rebounded, closing below the 20 - day moving average with the 20 - day moving average pointing down, which is bearish [2]. - The main positions are net short, and short positions are decreasing, which is bearish [2]. 2. Futures Exchange Quotes - On October 21, for zinc futures, different delivery months had various price movements. For example, for the 2511 contract, the previous settlement was 21880, the opening price was 21895, the high was 22035, the low was 21870, the closing price was 21965, the settlement reference price was 21955, with an increase of 85 and 75 respectively, trading volume of 54001 lots, and turnover of 592882.08. There were also details for other contracts like 2512, 2601, etc. [3]. 3. Domestic Spot Market Quotes - On October 21, in the domestic spot market, the price of zinc concentrate in Lin was 17120 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton; zinc ingot in Aoshi was 21980 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton; galvanized sheet in China was 3961 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton; galvanized pipe in Tiantian was 4360 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton; zinc alloy in Ningbo was 22490 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton; zinc powder in Changsha was 27270 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton; zinc oxide in Taizhou was 20500 yuan/ton, unchanged; and secondary zinc oxide in Lin 8 Xiaocun was 7790 yuan/ton, unchanged [4]. 4. Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics - From October 9 to October 20, 2025, the total social inventory of zinc ingots in major Chinese markets increased from 13.62 million tons to 16.29 million tons. Compared with October 13, it increased by 0.94 million tons, and compared with October 16, it increased by 0.73 million tons [5]. 5. Zinc Warehouse Receipt Report - On October 21, the total zinc warehouse receipts in the futures exchange were 66268 tons, a decrease of 151 tons. In Shanghai, the total was 0 tons; in Guangdong, it was 37874 tons; in Jiangsu, it was 422 tons; in Zhejiang, it was 0 tons; and in Tianjin, it was 27972 tons [6]. 6. LME Zinc Inventory Distribution - On October 21, the LME zinc inventory was 37275 tons, a decrease of 50 tons from the previous day. The registered warrants were 24425 tons, and the cancelled warrants were 12850 tons, with a cancellation ratio of 34.47% [7]. 7. Zinc Concentrate Price Summary - On October 21, in major domestic cities, the price of 50% - grade zinc concentrate in different regions such as Jiyuan, Chenzhou, etc., all increased by 50 yuan/ton, with prices ranging from 16820 to 17120 yuan/ton [8]. 8. Zinc Ingot Smelter Price Quotes - On October 21, for 0 zinc ingots with a purity of ≥99.995%, the prices of different brands such as Hunan Zhuzhou Juzhuan (Torch), Liaoning Huludao Zinc Industry (Huzinc), etc., all increased by 70 yuan/ton, with prices ranging from 21640 to 22640 yuan/ton [11]. 9. Domestic Refined Zinc Production in September 2025 - In September 2025, the planned production of refined zinc was 5068000 tons, the actual production was 4999000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.53%, a year - on - year increase of 16.13%, and a 1.35% shortfall compared to the plan. The capacity utilization rate was 74.80%, and the planned production for October was 5096000 tons [13]. 10. Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee Quotes - On October 21, the processing fees for 50% - grade zinc concentrate in different domestic regions such as FFF 3BF, Huludao, etc., showed different price ranges and changes. The import processing fee for 48% - grade zinc concentrate was 95 - 115 dollars/dry ton, with an average of 105 dollars/dry ton [15]. 11. SHFE Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking - For the zn2512 contract on October 21, in terms of trading volume, the top three were Guotai Junan with 35970 lots (an increase of 22065 lots), CITIC Futures with 30173 lots (a decrease of 2000 lots), and Dongzheng Futures with 21961 lots (an increase of 788 lots). In terms of long positions, the top three were CITIC Futures with 16101 lots (an increase of 1533 lots), Guoxin Futures with 7628 lots (an increase of 59 lots), and Dongzheng Futures with 6652 lots (an increase of 1099 lots). In terms of short positions, the top three were CITIC Futures with 21346 lots (an increase of 412 lots), Qiankun Futures with 10707 lots (a decrease of 623 lots), and Guotai Junan with 9335 lots (an increase of 471 lots) [16].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2025-10-22） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 6、预期：焦钢企业目前存在不同程度限产，亏损边缘的焦钢企业博弈加剧，市场情绪略有降温，但考 虑焦企近期出货较好，开工较稳下采购积极性仍存，短期刚需采购仍能给予焦煤底部支撑，预计短期焦 煤价格或暂稳运行。 1、基本面：部分煤矿因查超产有停、减产情况，同时产地安全检查影响，焦煤市场供应持续趋紧，对 焦煤价格有较强支撑。目前下游焦企对部分高价资源较为抵触，采购偏谨慎，部分煤种成交价格有所回 落，而在下游刚需采购下，部分优质煤种成交价格继续上涨，竞拍市场涨跌互现，整体煤矿报价多呈现 稳中上涨运行；中性 2、基差：现货市场价1300，基差123；现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：钢厂库存781.1万吨，港口库存295万吨，独立 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪镍&不锈钢早报—2025年10月22日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资：F3023048 投资咨询证：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 沪镍 每日观点 多空因素 影响因素总结 利多： 利空： 1、美联储降息预期 2、反内卷政策 3、矿价坚挺，成本线12万有支撑 1、国内产量继续同比大幅上升，需求无新增长点，长期过剩格局不变 2、三元电池装车量同比下降 1、基本面：外盘小幅震荡，20均线压力较大。产业链上，镍矿价格坚挺，菲律宾雨季慢慢来临，矿山 挺价，海运费最近有小幅下降。镍铁价格回落，成本线有所下移。不锈钢库存小幅回落，节后再次开始 去库存。新能源汽车产销数据良好，三元电池装车有所回升，但总体提振有限。中长线过剩格局不变。 偏空 2、基差：现货122500，基差1120，偏多 3、库存：LME库存250476，0，上交所仓单27026，+158，偏空 ...

Report Overview - This is a precious metals morning report released on October 22, 2025, by Dayue Futures' Investment Consulting Department, focusing on gold and silver [1]. 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Gold**: Due to profit - taking by funds and a stronger US dollar, gold prices dropped significantly, with an intraday decline of over 5.7%, the largest single - day decline since 2013. However, long - term upward trends remain due to trade concerns, government shutdowns, and interest - rate cut expectations. In the short term, prices are likely to be volatile under capital pressure [4]. - **Silver**: Silver prices also tumbled, with an intraday decline of nearly 8%. It still has support as it follows gold prices, but there is short - term callback pressure [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review - **Gold**: COMEX gold futures closed down 5.07% at $4138.5 per ounce. The 10 - year US Treasury yield fell 2.49 basis points to 3.953%, and the US dollar index rose 0.35% to 98.97 [4]. - **Silver**: COMEX silver futures closed down 6.27% at $48.16 per ounce. The 10 - year US Treasury yield and the US dollar index had the same changes as gold [5]. 3.2. Daily Tips - **Gold**: Today, pay attention to the UK's September CPI and the speech of the ECB President. The long - term upward trend of gold prices remains unchanged, but it is volatile in the short term [4]. - **Silver**: Although silver prices are supported by following gold, there is short - term callback pressure [5]. 3.3. Today's Focus - 07:50 Japan's September imports, exports, and trade balance; Time TBD China's Solid - State Battery Conference; 10:00 Thailand's central bank's October monetary policy meeting minutes and policy forum analyst meeting; 14:00 UK's September CPI; 19:00 ECB Deputy President de Guindos' speech; 20:25 ECB President Lagarde's speech; Next day 05:00 Bank of England Deputy Governor Woods' speech [14]. 3.4. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The basis is - 3.03, with the spot at a discount to the futures; gold futures warehouse receipts are 86,565 kg, a daily decrease of 1,959 kg [4]. - **Silver**: The basis is - 15, with the spot at a discount to the futures; Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts are 749,362 kg, a daily decrease of 106,488 kg [5]. 3.5. Position Data - **Gold**: The main net position is long, but the long positions of the main players are decreasing [4]. - **Silver**: The main net position is long, and the long positions of the main players are increasing [5].

Report Overview - **Report Title**: Cotton Morning Report - October 22, 2025 - **Report Author**: Wang Mingwei from the Investment Consulting Department of Dayue Futures - **Report Date**: October 22, 2025 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View The report analyzes the cotton market from multiple aspects, including fundamentals, basis, inventory, and market trends. Overall, the market shows a mixed situation with both bullish and bearish factors. Currently, new cotton is about to be listed in large quantities, and the earlier bearish news has been gradually digested. The purchase price of seed cotton has slightly increased, and the futures main contract 01 continues to fluctuate and rebound [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review No content related to the previous day's review is provided in the report. 3.2 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: The expected national cotton output is 728 million tons, with Xinjiang reaching a new high. Multiple reports provide different data on global and domestic cotton production, consumption, and inventory. In September, textile and clothing exports were $24.42 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 1.4%. China's cotton imports in September were 1 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 18.7%, while cotton yarn imports were 1.3 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 18.18%. Overall, the fundamentals are bearish [4]. - **Basis**: The national average price of spot 3128b is 14,728, and the basis is 1,188 (for the 01 contract), indicating a premium over futures, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: The expected ending inventory in the 2025/26 season in October by the Chinese Ministry of Agriculture is 8.22 million tons, which is bearish [4]. - **Market**: The 20-day moving average is downward, and the K-line is above the 20-day moving average, showing a neutral situation [4]. - **Main Position**: The position is bearish, with the net short position increasing, and the main trend is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: New cotton is about to be listed in large quantities, and the earlier bearish news has been gradually digested. The purchase price of seed cotton has slightly increased, and the futures main contract 01 continues to fluctuate and rebound [4]. 3.3 Today's Focus No content related to today's focus is provided in the report. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **USDA Global Supply and Demand Forecast (September)**: The total global cotton production in 2025/26 is expected to be 25.622 million tons, and consumption is expected to be 25.872 million tons, with an ending inventory of 15.925 million tons [4][9]. - **ICAC Global Supply and Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 2025/26 season, global production is 2.59 million tons, consumption is 2.56 million tons, ending inventory is 1.71 million tons, and global trade volume is 970,000 tons. The price forecast (Cotlook A Index) is 57 - 94 cents per pound (median 73 cents) [11]. - **Ministry of Agriculture's 2025/26 Season Data (October)**: Production is 6.36 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.4 million tons, and ending inventory is 8.22 million tons [4][13]. 3.5 Position Data No content related to position data is provided in the report. 4. Bullish and Bearish Factors 4.1 Bullish Factors - The purchase price of seed cotton has slightly increased, and commercial inventory is lower year-on-year [5]. 4.2 Bearish Factors - Trade negotiations are ongoing, and the current export tariffs to the US are relatively high. Overall, foreign trade orders have decreased, and inventory has increased. New cotton is about to be listed in large quantities, and consumption during the "Golden September" period was weak [6].