Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Coking Coal**: Despite some negative factors such as slowdown in raw coal procurement by coking and steel enterprises and weak steel prices, considering the high level of steel mill hot metal production, short - term demand is still supported. It is expected that the coking coal price will run strongly in the short term [2]. - **Coke**: Although coke producers' production level has slightly increased, due to cost pressure and limited production increase space, and with high demand from some downstream steel mills, the supply - demand pattern remains tight. It is expected that the coke price will remain stable in the short term [6]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Daily Viewpoints - **Coking Coal** - **Fundamentals**: Recent production cuts in coal mines have led to a slight reduction in supply. The spot market is cautious, with some high - priced coal seeing price drops. Most mines have no obvious inventory accumulation [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 1100, with a basis of - 156, indicating the spot is at a discount to the futures [2]. - **Inventory**: Total sample inventory is 1902.8 tons, an increase of 45.9 tons from last week [2]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line [2]. - **Main Position**: The main net position of coking coal is short, and short positions are decreasing [2]. - **Expectation**: The sixth round of coke price increase proposed by coking enterprises has not been implemented. Considering high hot metal production, short - term demand is supported, and the price is expected to run strongly [2]. - **Coke** - **Fundamentals**: Coke producers' production has slightly increased, but cost pressure remains, and the production increase space is limited. Downstream demand is high, and supply - demand is tight [6]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 1590, with a basis of - 89, indicating the spot is at a discount to the futures [6]. - **Inventory**: Total sample inventory is 839.7 tons, a decrease of 3.8 tons from last week [6]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line [6]. - **Main Position**: The main net position of coke is short, and short positions are increasing [6]. - **Expectation**: Coke producers' inventory is low, and production is difficult to increase significantly. With high demand from steel mills, the price is expected to remain stable [6]. Factors Affecting Prices - **Coking Coal** - **Positive**: Increase in hot metal production and limited supply growth [4]. - **Negative**: Slowdown in raw coal procurement by coking and steel enterprises and weak steel prices [4]. - **Coke** - **Positive**: Increase in hot metal production and blast furnace operating rate [8]. - **Negative**: Compression of steel mill profit margins and partial overdraft of replenishment demand [8]. Inventory Data - **Port Inventory**: Coking coal port inventory is 282.1 tons, a decrease of 10.2 tons from last week; coke port inventory is 215.1 tons, an increase of 17 tons from last week [20]. - **Independent Coking Enterprise Inventory**: Coking coal inventory is 844.1 tons, an increase of 2.9 tons from last week; coke inventory is 46.5 tons, a decrease of 3.6 tons from last week [25]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: Coking coal inventory is 803.8 tons, an increase of 4.3 tons from last week; coke inventory is 626.7 tons, a decrease of 13.3 tons from last week [29]. Other Data - **Coke Oven Capacity Utilization**: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is 74.48% [42]. - **Average Profit per Ton of Coke**: The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is 25 yuan [46].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-08-12锰硅早报 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 锰硅2509： 1.基本面：上周硅锰市场在成本、供应、需求等多方面因素的共同作用下，呈现出高位震荡的态势。预计短期内，这种震 2 荡态势仍将维持。后续需持续密切关注锰硅期货盘面的走势变化以及河钢招标定价情况；中性。 2.基差：现货价6000元/吨，09合约基差-100元/吨，现货贴水期货。偏空。 3.库存：全国63家独立硅锰企业样本库存221800吨；全国50家钢厂库存平均可用天数15.49天。中性。 4.盘面：MA20向上，09合约期价收于MA20上方。偏多。 5.主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增。偏空。 6.预期：预计本周锰硅价格震荡运行；SM2509：6000-6200震荡运行。 0吨 2000000吨 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The previous trading day saw a fluctuating upward trend in Shanghai zinc futures, closing with a positive candlestick. The trading volume increased, and both long and short positions reduced their holdings by a similar margin, resulting in a volume - shrinking upward movement. The price rose while bulls exited to wait and see, and bears also adopted a wait - and - see attitude. In the short term, the market may experience a fluctuating consolidation. Technically, the price closed above the moving average system, strengthening the moving average support. Short - term indicators KDJ rose and operated in the strong zone; the trend indicator rose, with the bullish power increasing and the bearish power decreasing, and the long - short forces were in a stalemate. The operation suggestion is that Shanghai zinc ZN2509 will fluctuate and consolidate [19]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Analysis - In April 2025, global zinc plate production was 1.153 million tons, consumption was 1.1302 million tons, with a supply surplus of 22,700 tons. From January to April, global zinc plate production was 4.4514 million tons, consumption was 4.5079 million tons, with a supply shortage of 56,500 tons. In April, global zinc plate production was 1.0722 million tons. From January to April, global zinc ore production was 4.0406 million tons, which is a bullish factor [2]. - The basis is +40 with the spot price at 22,550, indicating a neutral situation [2]. - On August 11, LME zinc inventory decreased by 1,075 tons to 80,425 tons compared to the previous day, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange zinc inventory warrants increased by 1,148 tons to 15,494 tons compared to the previous day, showing a neutral situation [2]. - The Shanghai zinc futures showed a fluctuating upward trend in the previous trading day, closing above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average was upward, which is a bullish factor [2]. - The main positions are net short, and the short positions are decreasing, which is a bearish factor [2]. 2. Futures Exchange Zinc Futures Quotes (August 11) - The total trading volume of zinc futures on August 11 was 157,190 lots, with a total trading value of 1.7742915 billion yuan. The total open interest was 213,578 lots, an increase of 4,712 lots [3]. 3. Domestic Main Spot Market Quotes (August 11) - The price of zinc concentrate in Lin was 17,180 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton; the price of zinc ingots in Shanghai was 22,550 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton; the price of galvanized sheets in China was 4,097 yuan/unit, an increase of 9 yuan/unit; the price of galvanized pipes in China was 4,499 yuan/unit, an increase of 5 yuan/unit; the price of zinc alloy in Ningbo was 23,080 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan/ton; the price of zinc powder in Changsha was 27,620 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan/ton; the price of zinc oxide in Taizhou remained unchanged at 20,850 yuan/ton; the price of secondary zinc oxide in Lin remained unchanged at 7,729 yuan/ton [4]. 4. National Main Market Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics (July 31 - August 11, 2025) - As of August 11, the total social inventory of zinc ingots in major Chinese markets was 990,000 tons, an increase of 118,000 tons compared to August 4 and an increase of 77,000 tons compared to August 7 [5]. 5. Futures Exchange Zinc Warrant Report (August 11) - The total zinc warrants on August 11 were 15,494 tons, an increase of 1,148 tons. Among them, the warrants in Shanghai decreased by 25 tons, those in Guangdong increased by 1,198 tons, and those in Tianjin decreased by 25 tons [6]. 6. LME Zinc Inventory Distribution and Statistics (August 11) - On August 11, the LME zinc inventory was 80,425 tons, a decrease of 1,075 tons compared to the previous day. The registered warrants were 34,700 tons, and the cancellation ratio was 43.15% [7]. 7. National Main City Zinc Concentrate Prices (August 11) - No detailed price data is provided in the report, only the title is given [9]. 8. National Market Zinc Ingot Smelter Price Quotes (August 11) - The prices of 0 zinc ingots from different smelters all increased by 60 yuan/ton. For example, the price of zinc ingots from Hunan Zhuzhou Smelter was 22,890 yuan/ton, from Liaoning Huludao Zinc Industry was 22,950 yuan/ton, from Guangdong Zhongjin Lingnan was 22,620 yuan/ton, etc. [13]. 9. Domestic Refined Zinc Production in June 2025 - In June 2025, the planned production of refined zinc was 459,700 tons, and the actual production was 471,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.67% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.36%. The production exceeded the plan by 2.63%, and the capacity utilization rate was 87.10%. The planned production in July was 470,300 tons [15]. 10. Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee Quotes (August 11) - The processing fees for zinc concentrates in different regions vary. For example, in some regions with a 50% grade, the average processing fee ranges from 3,500 to 4,000 yuan/metal ton, and the import processing fee for 48% grade is 70 US dollars/dry ton [17]. 11. Shanghai Futures Exchange Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking (August 11) - For the zn2509 contract, in terms of trading volume, the top three are CITIC Futures (25,363 lots, an increase of 2,137 lots), Guotai Junan (22,104 lots, an increase of 1,035 lots), and Dongzheng Futures (13,309 lots, an increase of 417 lots). In terms of long positions, the top three are CITIC Futures (8,354 lots, a decrease of 395 lots), Dongzheng Futures (7,503 lots, an increase of 130 lots), and Guotai Junan (6,357 lots, a decrease of 533 lots). In terms of short positions, the top three are CITIC Futures (8,047 lots, a decrease of 240 lots), Shenwan Futures (5,833 lots, an increase of 461 lots), and Dongzheng Futures (5,593 lots, an increase of 733 lots) [18].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash show strong supply and weak demand. With the fading of policy - driven positive sentiment, it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Alkali plants have few overhauls, supply remains at a high level. The daily melting volume of downstream float glass is stable, while that of photovoltaic glass has dropped significantly, and terminal demand is weak. The inventory of soda ash plants is at a historical high, indicating a bearish outlook [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy - duty soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,235 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2601 is 1,345 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 110 yuan. The futures price is higher than the spot price, which is bearish [2]. - **Inventory**: The national in - plant inventory of soda ash is 1.8651 million tons, an increase of 3.86% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average, which is bearish [2][34]. - **Disk**: The price is running below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward, indicating a neutral situation [2]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [2]. - **Expectation**: Given the supply - demand imbalance in the soda ash market and the fading of policy - driven positive sentiment, it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [2]. 2. Influencing Factors Summary - **Positive Factors**: The peak summer overhaul period is approaching, and production will decline [3]. - **Negative Factors**: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production - launch plans this year. The production of the industry is at a historical high. The downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy - duty soda ash has cut production, reducing the demand for soda ash. The sentiment of the "anti - involution" policy has faded [5]. 3. Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract has increased from 1,332 yuan/ton to 1,345 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.98%. The low - end price of heavy - duty soda ash in Shahe remains unchanged at 1,235 yuan/ton. The main basis has changed from - 97 yuan to - 110 yuan, a change of 13.40% [6]. 4. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end market price of heavy - duty soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,235 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous day [12]. - **Production Profit**: The profit of heavy - duty soda ash produced by the ammonia - soda process in North China is - 23.80 yuan/ton, and that of the co - production process in East China is 18.50 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash has rebounded from a historical low [15]. - **Operating Rate and Production Volume**: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 85.41%, and the operating rate is expected to decline seasonally. The weekly production volume of soda ash is 744,600 tons, including 423,400 tons of heavy - duty soda ash, with production at a historical high [18][20]. - **Capacity Changes**: In 2023, the new production capacity of soda ash was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; in 2025, the planned new production capacity is 7.5 million tons, with 1 million tons actually put into production [21]. 5. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - **Sales - to - Production Ratio**: The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash is 90.69% [25]. - **Downstream Demand**: The daily melting volume of national float glass is 159,600 tons, and the operating rate is stable at 75.19%. The price of photovoltaic glass has been continuously falling. Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, the industry has cut production, and the in - production daily melting volume has dropped significantly [28][31]. 6. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The national in - plant inventory of soda ash is 1.8651 million tons, an increase of 3.86% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [34]. 7. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective capacity, production, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand gap, capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [35].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The urea market is currently in a state of overall over - supply in China. The recent urea futures market has been oscillating, and after the "anti - involution" sentiment cooled down, the trend has returned to the fundamentals. Although the international urea price is strong and the export profit is increasing, the export policy has not been liberalized beyond expectations. It is expected that the UR futures will oscillate today [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: The daily production and operating rate of domestic urea are still at a relatively high level, and the inventory has increased again. In terms of demand, the operating rate of compound fertilizers and melamine in industrial demand has continued to decline, and agricultural demand is expected to continue to fall. The overall over - supply situation in the domestic urea market is still obvious, while the export profit is strengthening, and the export policy has not been liberalized beyond expectations. The spot price of the delivery product is 1810 (+30), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2509 contract is 59, and the premium - discount ratio is 3.3%, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive UR inventory is 1.459 million tons (-18,000 tons), which is bearish [4]. - **Futures Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract has flattened, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The main urea contract is oscillating. The international urea price is strong, the export policy has not been liberalized beyond expectations, and the domestic over - supply situation is still obvious. It is expected that the UR will oscillate today [4]. - **Leverage Factors**: The bullish factor is that the international price is strong; the bearish factors are the high operating rate and daily production, and the weak domestic demand. The main logic lies in the marginal changes in international prices and domestic demand, and the main risk point is the change in export policy [5]. Spot, Futures, and Inventory Market Conditions | Category | Details | | ---- | ---- | | **Spot Market** | The spot price of the delivery product is 1810 (+30), the Shandong spot price is 1810 (+10), the Henan spot price is 1810 (-23), and the FOB China price is 2750 [6]. | | **Futures Market** | The price of the 01 contract is 1751 (unchanged), the basis is 59 (+10), the price of the UR05 contract is 1790 (+6), and the price of the UR09 contract is 1722 (-6) [6]. | | **Inventory** | The warehouse receipt is 3623 (unchanged), the comprehensive UR inventory is 1.459 million tons (-18,000 tons), the UR manufacturer inventory is 1.019 million tons (-77,000 tons), and the UR port inventory is 440,000 tons (+59,000 tons) [6]. | Urea Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Imports | PP Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2018 | | 2245.5 | | 1956.81 | 448.38 | 18.6% | 2405.19 | 23.66 | 2405.19 | | | 2019 | | 2445.5 | 8.9% | 2240 | 487.94 | 17.9% | 2727.94 | 37.86 | 2713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | | 2825.5 | 15.5% | 2580.98 | 619.12 | 19.3% | 3200.1 | 37.83 | 3200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | | 3148.5 | 11.4% | 2927.99 | 352.41 | 10.7% | 3280.4 | 35.72 | 3282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | | 3413.5 | 8.4% | 2965.46 | 335.37 | 10.2% | 3300.83 | 44.62 | 3291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | | 3893.5 | 14.1% | 3193.59 | 293.13 | 8.4% | 3486.72 | 44.65 | 3486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | | 4418.5 | 13.5% | 3425 | 360 | 9.5% | 3785 | 51.4 | 3778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | | 4906 | 11.0% | | | | | | | | [10] |

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The glass market is expected to be mainly in a wide - range oscillatory operation, with a short - term outlook of weak oscillation. The glass has returned to its weak fundamental state, and the follow - up inventory reduction sustainability is questionable [2][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily View - The fundamentals show that glass production profit has recovered, the cold - repair speed of the industry has slowed down, the start - up rate and output have dropped to the low level of the same period in history; deep - processing orders are less than the same period in previous years, and terminal demand is weak [2]. - The basis shows that the spot price of float glass in Hebei Shahe is 1104 yuan/ton, the closing price of FG2601 is 1219 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 115 yuan, with the futures at a premium to the spot [2]. - The inventory shows that the inventory of national float glass enterprises is 61.847 million weight boxes, an increase of 3.95% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average [2]. - The disk shows that the price is running below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward [2]. - The main position shows that the main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing [2]. - The expectation is that the glass returns to the weak fundamentals, and it is expected to mainly operate with weak oscillation in the short term [2]. 3.2 Influencing Factors - **Likely to Rise Factors**: Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, there is an expectation of capacity clearance in the float glass industry [3]. - **Likely to Fall Factors**: The terminal demand in the real estate industry remains weak, and the number of orders of glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low in the same period; the capital collection in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly digesting the original sheet inventory; the market sentiment of "anti - involution" has subsided [4]. 3.3 Main Logic The glass supply has declined to a relatively low level in the same period, and the downstream has carried out phased replenishment, resulting in the reduction of glass factory inventories. However, the sustainability of subsequent inventory reduction is questionable, and it is expected that the glass will mainly operate in a wide - range oscillation [5]. 3.4 Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract has increased from 1196 yuan/ton to 1219 yuan/ton, a rise of 1.92%. - The spot price of Shahe Safety large - board glass remains unchanged at 1104 yuan/ton. - The main basis has changed from - 92 yuan/ton to - 115 yuan/ton, a change of 25.00% [6]. 3.5 Glass Spot Market The market price of 5mm white glass large - board in Hebei Shahe, the spot benchmark location, is 1104 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous day [12]. 3.6 Fundamentals - Cost Side No detailed information provided. 3.7 Fundamentals - Production and Supply - The number of operating float glass production lines in the country is 223, with an operating rate of 75.19%, and the number of operating production lines is at a historical low in the same period [23]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass is 159,600 tons, with the production capacity at the lowest level in the same period in history and showing a stable recovery [25]. 3.8 Fundamentals - Demand - In June 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.634 million tons [29]. - The downstream terminal demand in the real estate industry is weak, and the number of orders of glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low in the same period [4]. 3.9 Fundamentals - Inventory The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 61.847 million weight boxes, an increase of 3.95% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average [2][42]. 3.10 Fundamentals - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The supply - demand balance sheet from 2017 to 2024E shows the changes in production, consumption, and other data of float glass over the years, including production growth rate, consumption growth rate, and net import ratio [43].

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report - Date: August 12, 2025 - Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [2][3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to fluctuate today. For LLDPE, the market is affected by cost support but also faces weak demand. For PP, similar factors of cost support and weak demand are at play. The domestic macro - policy has an impact on the market, but after the sentiment cools down, the market returns to the fundamentals [4][6][7] Summary by Content LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In July, China's official manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points month - on - month, in contraction for 4 consecutive months. The Caixin manufacturing PMI dropped from 50.4 to 49.5. Exports in July were $321.78 billion, up 7.2% year - on - year. The "anti - involution" policy improved commodity expectations, but the market returned to fundamentals after the sentiment cooled. Short - term oil prices fluctuated downward. In the supply - demand side, it's the off - season for agricultural films, with a slight recovery in short - term production but still at a low level. The current LLDPE delivery spot price is 7260 (+20), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2509 contract is - 54, with a premium/discount ratio of - 0.7%, which is bearish [4] - **Inventory**: The PE comprehensive inventory is 577,000 tons (+14,000), which is bearish [4] - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is flat, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4] - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, with a reduction in short positions, which is bearish [4] - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract fluctuates. The increase from the "anti - involution" policy has reversed. It's the off - season for agricultural film demand, downstream demand is weak, and industrial inventory is neutral. It's expected that PE will fluctuate today [4] - **Likely Factors**: Cost support [6] - **Negative Factors**: Weak demand [6] - **Main Logic**: Cost, demand, and domestic macro - policy drive [6] PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the macro data shows contraction in the manufacturing sector. The "anti - involution" policy impact fades. Short - term oil prices fluctuate downward. It's the off - season for downstream demand, mainly driven by rigid demand, and the demand for pipes and plastic weaving remains weak. The current PP delivery spot price is 7100 (- 0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [7] - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2509 contract is - 20, with a premium/discount ratio of - 0.3%, which is neutral [7] - **Inventory**: The PP comprehensive inventory is 587,000 tons (+6,000), which is bearish [7] - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is flat, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [7] - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is short, with an increase in short positions, which is bearish [7] - **Expectation**: The PP main contract fluctuates. The increase from the "anti - involution" policy has reversed. The demand for downstream pipes and plastic weaving is weak, and industrial inventory is neutral. It's expected that PP will fluctuate today [7] - **Likely Factors**: Cost support [9] - **Negative Factors**: Weak demand [9] - **Main Logic**: Cost, demand, and domestic macro - policy drive [9] Market Data - **LLDPE**: The spot delivery price is 7260 (+20), the 09 contract price is 7314 (+24), the basis is - 54 (- 4), the warehouse receipt is 6282 (+400), the PE comprehensive factory inventory is 577,000 tons, and the PE social inventory is 569,000 tons (- 7,000) [10] - **PP**: The spot delivery price is 7100 (- 0), the 09 contract price is 7095 (+33), the basis is - 20 (- 29), the warehouse receipt is 12540 (+0), the PP comprehensive factory inventory is 587,000 tons, and the PP social inventory is 284,000 tons [10] Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption generally showed an upward trend, with fluctuations in import dependence and consumption growth rates. The expected production capacity in 2025 is 4.3195 million tons, with a growth rate of 20.5% [15] - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption increased, with changes in import dependence and consumption growth rates. The expected production capacity in 2025 is 4.906 million tons, with a growth rate of 11.0% [17]

证券代码：839979 油脂早报 2025-08-12投资咨询部 | 分析师: | 王明伟 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格号： | F0283029 | | 投资咨询号： | Z0010442 | | TEL: | 0575-85226759 | 每日观点 豆油 1.基本面：MPOB报告显示，MPOB月报显示马棕5月产量环比减少9.8%至162万吨，出口环比减少14.74%至 149万吨，月末库存环比减少2.6%至183万吨。报告中性，减产不及预期。目前船调机构显示本月目前马 棕出口数据环比增加4%，后续进入增产季，棕榈油供应上有所增加。中性 2.基差：豆油现货8508，基差68，现货升水期货。偏多 3.库存：7月4日豆油商业库存88万吨，前86万吨，环比+2万吨，同比+11.7% 。偏空 4.盘面：期价运行在20日均线上，20日均线朝上。偏多 5.主力持仓：豆油主力多减。偏多 6.预期：油脂价格震荡整理，国内基本面宽松，国内油脂供应稳定。24/25年USDA南美产量预期较高，马 棕库存偏中性，需求有所好转，印尼B40促进国内消费，美豆油生柴政策扶持生柴消费增加。国内对加菜 加征关税导致菜系领涨 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2025年8月12日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 2、基差：现货4695，09合约基差-11，盘面贴水 中性 3、库存：PTA工厂库存3.7天，环比减少0.12天 偏多 4、盘面：20日均线向下，收盘价收于20日均线之下 偏空 5、主力持仓：净空 空减 偏空 MEG 每日观点 MEG： PTA 每日观点 PTA： 1、基本面：昨日PTA期货区间震荡，现货市场商谈氛围一般，现货基差走强，个别聚酯工厂递盘。个别主流供应商出货。8月主 港货在09-10～15有成交，8月底个别宁波货在09平水附近商谈，价格商谈区间在4680~4715附近。9月中上主港在09+0~5有成交。 今日主流现货基差在09-12。中 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号： F03105325 投资咨询证号： Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 钢矿周报（8.4-8.8） CONTENTS 目 录 基本面分析 1 The first chapter of the small title 综述及观点总结 2 The third chapter of the small title 2 1、原料市场状况分析 一周数据变化 | 项目 | 上期数据 | 本期数据 | 涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PB粉价格（元/湿吨） | 768 | 770 | 2 | | 巴混粉价格（元/湿吨） | 790 | 809 | 19 | | PB粉现货落地利润（元/湿吨） | -1.69 | -11.36 | -9.67 | | 巴混粉现货落地利润（元/湿吨） | -4.18 ...