1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report about the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic methanol market shows significant regional differences in expectations. The inland market is expected to be in a tight supply - demand balance, with recent restarts of previously shut - down plants increasing supply, but low inventory levels and external procurement needs from CTO enterprises in the northwest supporting the market. It is expected to fluctuate strongly this week. The port market has obvious supply - demand contradictions, with concentrated shipments from Iran and shutdown of large olefin plants at ports, leading to expected continuous inventory accumulation. The short - term futures market has some support but limited upward momentum. Overall, the methanol price is expected to fluctuate this week, with MA2509 expected to trade between 2360 - 2420 yuan/ton [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Inland supply increases due to restart of plants, but low inventory and external procurement needs maintain a tight balance. The port is expected to see continuous inventory accumulation. The market is affected by traditional demand off - season and cost transmission difficulties. The futures market has support from policy - related speculation on coking coal and coke, but limited upward movement [5]. - **Basis**: The spot price of methanol in Jiangsu is 2410 yuan/ton, with a basis of 21 for the 09 contract, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [5]. - **Inventory**: As of August 7, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports is 80.33 tons, a cumulative increase of 15.30 tons from the previous period. The overall available methanol supply in coastal areas has increased by 13.20 tons to 49.83 tons [5]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is flat, and the price is below the moving average [5]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, with a reduction in short positions [5]. - **Expectation**: The methanol price is expected to fluctuate this week, with MA2509 trading between 2360 - 2420 yuan/ton [5]. 3.2 Long - Short Concerns - **Positive Factors**: Some plants are shut down (e.g., Yulin Kaiyue, Xinjiang Xinya); methanol production in Iran has decreased; port inventory is at a low level; a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid plant in Jingmen has started production, and a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid plant in Xinjiang Zhonghe Hezhong is planned to be put into operation this month; CTO plants in the northwest are purchasing methanol externally [6]. - **Negative Factors**: Previously shut - down plants have restarted (e.g., Inner Mongolia Donghua); there are expected to be concentrated arrivals at ports in the second half of the month; formaldehyde is in the traditional off - season; MTBE production has declined significantly; coal - based methanol has profit margins and is actively selling; some plants in production areas have accumulated inventory due to poor sales [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Price**: The spot price of methanol in different regions has shown different trends. For example, the price in Jiangsu has a weekly change of 0.04%, while the price in Shandong has remained unchanged. The futures closing price has increased by 6 yuan/ton compared to the previous value, and the registered warehouse receipts have increased by 1400 to 10088 [8][9]. - **Spread Structure**: The basis, import spread, and regional spreads have all changed. For example, the basis has decreased by 12 yuan/ton, and the import spread has increased by 3 yuan/ton [8]. - **Operating Rate**: The national weighted average operating rate is 74.90%, a decrease of 3.81% from the previous period. The operating rates in different regions such as Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest have also decreased [8]. - **Inventory**: The inventory in East China ports has increased by 8.60 tons to 51.08 tons, and the inventory in South China ports has increased by 6.70 tons to 29.25 tons [8]. 3.4 Maintenance Status - **Domestic Plants**: Many domestic methanol plants are in maintenance, including those in the Northwest, North China, East China, Southwest, and Northeast regions. The maintenance periods and losses vary by plant [56]. - **Overseas Plants**: Some overseas methanol plants, especially those in Iran, are in the process of restarting or have uncertain operating conditions. Some plants in other countries are operating normally, while some are in maintenance or have low operating rates [57]. - **Olefin Plants**: Some olefin plants are in maintenance, while others are operating stably or have plans for future maintenance or production increases [58].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 碳酸锂期货早报 2025年8月12日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 | | | 供给端来看 ， | 上周碳酸锂产量为19556吨 ， | 环比增长13 24% 高于历史同期平均水平 . , 。 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 需求端来看 ， | 上周磷酸铁锂样本企业库存为94598吨 | 环比增加0 99% 上周三元材料样本企 ， . , | | | | | 业库存为16559吨 ， | 环比增加0 36% . 。 | | | | 1 、 | 基本面: | 成本端来看 ， | 外购锂辉石精矿成本为73573元/吨 | 日环比增长5 83% 生产所得为 -14 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Gold: The news of gold being tax - free continues to ferment, causing the gold price to decline significantly. The release of the US CPI today may lead the market to bet on stagflation. If the CPI rises, the gold price will still have support. With the new dovish expectations of the Fed, the gold price may rebound. [4] - Silver: The silver price follows the gold price to fall due to the news of gold being tax - free. The recovery of domestic risk appetite provides support for the silver price, and the decline is not significantly enlarged. The commodity sentiment recovers, and the silver price is still supported. The release of the US CPI today may further push up the silver price. [6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Previous Day Review - **Gold**: US three major stock indexes fell slightly, European three major stock indexes closed mixed, US bond yields fell collectively (10 - year US bond yield fell 0.58 basis points to 4.281%), the US dollar index rose 0.24% to 98.50, the offshore RMB depreciated slightly against the US dollar to 7.1962, and COMEX gold futures fell 2.80% to $3393.7 per ounce. [4] - **Silver**: Silver price followed the gold price to fall. US three major stock indexes fell slightly, European three major stock indexes closed mixed, US bond yields fell collectively (10 - year US bond yield fell 0.58 basis points to 4.281%), the US dollar index rose 0.24% to 98.50, the offshore RMB depreciated slightly against the US dollar to 7.1962, and COMEX silver futures fell 2.33% to $37.645 per ounce. [6] 3.2. Daily Tips - **Gold**: The gold futures price is 779.48, the spot price is 776.19, and the basis is - 3.29, with the spot at a discount to the futures; the gold futures warehouse receipts are 36045 kg, unchanged; the 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average; the main net position is long, and the main long position is reduced. [4][5] - **Silver**: The silver futures price is 9210, the spot price is 9187, and the basis is - 23, with the spot at a discount to the futures; the Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts are 1151962 kg, with a daily decrease of 6425 kg; the 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average; the main net position is long, and the main long position is increased. [6] 3.3. Today's Focus - 12:30: Australian policy rate, and the RBA Governor Michele Bullock holds a monetary policy press conference. - 14:00: UK's three - month ILO employment change and unemployment rate for June. - Time TBD: China's new round of refined oil price adjustment window will open. - 17:00: Eurozone's ZEW economic sentiment index for August, Germany's ZEW economic sentiment index for August. - 20:30: US CPI for July. - 22:00: Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin (FOMC voter in 2027) speaks. - 22:30: Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid (FOMC voter in 2025) speaks on monetary policy and economic outlook. - 02:00: US government budget for July. [15] 3.4. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The fundamental situation is neutral. The news of gold being tax - free continues to ferment, the gold price drops significantly. The market starts to bet on stagflation, and if the CPI rises, the gold price will have support. The Shanghai gold premium expands to - 1.3 yuan per gram. [4] - **Silver**: The fundamental situation is neutral. The silver price follows the gold price to fall due to the news of gold being tax - free. The recovery of domestic risk appetite provides support for the silver price, and the Shanghai silver premium remains at about 400 yuan per kg. [6] 3.5. Position Data - **Gold**: The main net position is long, and the main long position is reduced. [5] - **Silver**: The main net position is long, and the main long position is increased. [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating provided in the content Core View of the Report - The supply glut continues to suppress the fundamentals of the low - sulfur fuel oil market, and traders expect a surge in Western arbitrage cargoes to boost inventories in the Singapore region. For high - sulfur fuel oil, although the spot supply is sufficient and the seasonal public demand weakens, the downstream high - sulfur fuel oil premium in Singapore is supported by stable demand and moderate shipping schedules. The high - sulfur fundamentals are slightly stronger than the low - sulfur, but overall, it will mainly operate in a volatile manner. FU2509 will operate in the range of 2760 - 2800, and LU2510 will operate in the range of 3470 - 3510 [3] Summary According to the Directory 1. Daily Hints - The fundamentals of low - sulfur fuel oil are suppressed by supply glut; high - sulfur fuel oil downstream premium in Singapore is supported. The base - value shows that the spot price is higher than the futures price. Singapore's fuel oil inventory increased by 470,000 barrels to 20.749 million barrels in the week of August 6. The price is below the 20 - day line. The high - sulfur main position is short and the short position decreases, while the low - sulfur main position is long and the long position increases. The continuation of the Sino - US trade exemption provides some support to the market [3] 2. Long and Short Concerns - **Likely to Rise**: Sanctions against Russia may be intensified [4] - **Likely to Fall**: The optimism on the demand side remains to be verified, and the upstream crude oil price is weak. The market is driven by the resonance of geopolitical risks on the supply side and neutral demand [4] 3. Fundamental Data - **Fundamentals**: Supply glut suppresses low - sulfur fuel oil; high - sulfur fuel oil downstream premium in Singapore is supported by demand and shipping schedules [3] - **Base - value**: Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil is 402.27 US dollars/ton with a base - value of 218 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil is 489.5 US dollars/ton with a base - value of 142 yuan/ton, and the spot price is higher than the futures price [3] - **Inventory**: Singapore's fuel oil inventory in the week of August 6 was 20.749 million barrels, an increase of 470,000 barrels [3][8] - **Disk**: The price is below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward [3] - **Main Position**: High - sulfur main position is short and the short position decreases; low - sulfur main position is long and the long position increases [3] - **Expectation**: The continuation of the Sino - US trade exemption provides support. High - sulfur fundamentals are slightly stronger than low - sulfur, and it will operate in a volatile manner. FU2509 will operate in the range of 2760 - 2800, and LU2510 will operate in the range of 3470 - 3510 [3] 4. Spread Data No specific spread data analysis provided other than the mention of high - low sulfur futures spread graph 5. Inventory Data - Singapore fuel oil inventory data from May 28 to August 6 shows fluctuations, with an increase of 470,000 barrels to 20.749 million barrels in the week of August 6 [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - This week, the manganese ore market remained firm, and silicon-manganese alloy plants maintained just-in-time procurement. With the stable rise in coke prices, there was strong cost support for silicon-manganese alloy spot and futures prices [2]. - The silicon-manganese futures market showed high-level fluctuations this week, and the market still had a mindset of holding prices. High-level hedging was common in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia. The production in the north and south markets was stable. Due to smooth sales in late July, inventory decreased, and factories in early August were mostly producing on order to replenish inventory, so the inventory pressure was small, and manufacturers were more willing to maintain high prices. Given the market fluctuations, many manufacturers were waiting and watching, and some stopped quoting prices, waiting for the market to become clearer before adjusting prices [2]. - This week, HBIS Group's silicon-manganese procurement volume in August was 16,100 tons, an increase of 1,500 tons from the previous round. The first-round inquiry price for silicon-manganese in August was 6,000 yuan/ton, a rise of 150 yuan compared to the July pricing of 5,850 yuan/ton. The increase in steel tender quantity and inquiry price in August may support the short-term sentiment in the silicon-manganese market [2]. - Overall, the silicon-manganese market showed high-level fluctuations under the combined influence of multiple factors such as cost, supply, and demand this week. It is expected that this fluctuating trend will continue in the short term. Attention should be paid to the trend of silicon-manganese futures and HBIS's tender pricing [2]. - The market is expected to continue its relatively strong fluctuating trend in the short term [3] Summary by Directory Manganese-Silicon Supply - **Capacity**: Data on the monthly capacity of Chinese silicon-manganese enterprises and annual production in different regions (Guangxi, Guizhou, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Yunnan, and other areas) are presented in charts [7][8] - **Production - Annual**: Not elaborated further in text, only the title is provided [9] - **Production - Weekly, Monthly, and Capacity Utilization**: Charts show weekly and monthly production of Chinese silicon-manganese and weekly capacity utilization of Chinese silicon-manganese enterprises [11] - **Production - Regional Production**: Charts display monthly production in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Guizhou, as well as daily average production in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Guizhou, and Guangxi [12][13] Manganese-Silicon Demand - **Steel Tender Purchase Price**: Charts show the monthly purchase prices of silicon-manganese by various steel companies, including Baoshan Iron & Steel Co., Ltd., Baowu Egang, Chengde Jianlong, Heilongjiang Jianlong, Yangchun Iron and Steel, Jilin Jianlong, and Nanjing Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. [16] - **Daily Average Hot Metal and Profitability**: Charts show the weekly daily average hot metal production and profitability of 247 Chinese steel enterprises [18] Manganese-Silicon Import and Export - Charts show the monthly import and export volumes of Chinese ferromanganese-silicon [20] Manganese-Silicon Inventory - Charts show the weekly inventory of 63 sample Chinese silicon-manganese enterprises, as well as the monthly average available inventory days in China, the northern region, and East China [22] Manganese-Silicon Cost - **Manganese Ore - Import Volume**: Charts show the monthly import volume of manganese ore from different sources (including total import volume by trade method, from Gabon, southern Africa, and Australia) [24] - **Manganese Ore - Port Inventory and Available Days**: Charts show the weekly port inventory of manganese ore in China, Qinzhou Port, and Tianjin Port, as well as the weekly average available inventory days in China [26] - **Manganese Ore - High-Grade Ore Port Inventory**: Charts show the weekly port inventory of high-grade manganese ore from different origins (Australia, Gabon, Brazil) in Qinzhou Port and Tianjin Port [28] - **Manganese Ore - Tianjin Port Manganese Ore Price**: Charts show the daily price of different types of manganese ore in Tianjin Port [29] - **Regional Cost**: Charts show the daily cost of silicon-manganese in different regions (Inner Mongolia, northern region, Ningxia, southern region, Guangxi) [30] Manganese-Silicon Profit - Charts show the daily profit of silicon-manganese in different regions (northern region, southern region, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Guangxi) [32]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cotton market presents a neutral outlook based on various factors. The 01 contract is expected to move sideways in the short - term, with attention on the resistance around 14,000 [4]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include reduced previous Sino - US tariffs and lower commercial inventory year - on - year. Negative factors involve the postponement of trade negotiations, high export tariffs to the US, the off - season for consumption, a decline in overall foreign trade orders, increased inventory, and the upcoming large - scale listing of new cotton [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review No relevant information provided. 2. Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Different institutions have different estimates for the 2025/26 cotton year. The ICAC 8 - month report shows a production of 25.90 million tons and consumption of 25.60 million tons. The USDA 7 - month report indicates a production of 25.783 million tons, consumption of 25.718 million tons, and an ending inventory of 16.835 million tons. In July, textile and clothing exports were $26.77 billion, a 0.1% year - on - year decrease. China's cotton imports in June were 30,000 tons, an 82.1% year - on - year decrease, and cotton yarn imports were 110,000 tons, a 0.1% year - on - year increase. The Ministry of Agriculture's July 2025/26 forecast shows a production of 6.25 million tons, imports of 1.4 million tons, consumption of 7.4 million tons, and an ending inventory of 8.23 million tons [4]. - **Basis**: The national average price of spot 3128b cotton is 15,161 yuan, and the basis for the 01 contract is 1,281 yuan, with the spot at a premium to the futures, which is a bullish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: The Ministry of Agriculture's July 2025/26 forecast for China's ending inventory is 8.23 million tons, which is a bearish factor [4]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is flat, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, indicating a bearish trend [4]. - **Main Position**: The net long position is decreasing, and the main trend is unclear, but the overall position is long, which is a bullish signal [4]. - **Expectation**: Sino - US trade negotiations are postponed, and textile export data in July is not ideal. It is currently the off - season for consumption, and the "Golden September and Silver October" market is unclear. The 01 contract is expected to move sideways in the short - term, with resistance around 14,000 [4]. 3. Today's Focus No relevant information provided. 4. Fundamental Data - **USDA Global Cotton Supply - Demand Forecast (July)**: Global cotton production in 2025/26 is expected to be 25.783 million tons, consumption is 25.718 million tons, and ending inventory is 16.835 million tons. Different countries have different trends in production, consumption, imports, exports, and ending inventory [9][10]. - **ICAC Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 2025/26 year, global production is 25.90 million tons, consumption is 25.60 million tons, ending inventory is 17.10 million tons, and global trade volume is 9.70 million tons. The price forecast for the Cotlook A index is 57 - 94 cents per pound [11]. - **Ministry of Agriculture's China Cotton Data**: From 2023/24 to 2025/26, data on China's cotton's beginning inventory, sown area, harvested area, yield per unit area, production, imports, consumption, ending inventory, domestic average price, and Cotlook A index are presented [13]. 5. Position Data No relevant information provided.

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沥青期货早报 2025年8月12日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，根据隆众，2025年8月份国内沥青总计划排产量为241.3万吨，环比降幅5.1%, 同比增幅17.1%。本周国内石油沥青样本产能利用率为33.4372%，环比减少1.32个百分 点，全国样本企业出货28.03万吨，环比增加2.90%,样本企业产量为55.8万吨，环比减少 3.79%,样本企业装置检修量预估为61.6万吨，环比增加1.99%,本周炼厂有所减产，降低供 应压力。下周或将增加供给压力。 需求端来看，重交沥青开工率为31.7%，环比减少0.04个百分点，低于历史平均水平；建筑 沥青开工率为18.2%，环比持平，低于历史平均水平；改性沥青开 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure has increased this week, and it is expected that maintenance will decrease next week, with a significant increase in production scheduling. The overall inventory is at a high level, and the current demand may remain sluggish. The PVC2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4954 - 5066 [8][9]. - The positive factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export advantages. The negative factors are the rebound in overall supply pressure, high - level inventory with slow consumption, and weak domestic and external demand [12]. - The main logic is the strong overall supply pressure and the poor recovery of domestic demand [13]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply Side**: In July 2025, PVC production was 2.00461 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.67%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises was 79.46%, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 percentage points. The production of calcium carbide enterprises was 336,105 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.55%, and that of ethylene enterprises was 139,810 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.48% [7]. - **Demand Side**: The overall downstream operating rate was 42.85%, a month - on - month increase of 0.800 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The operating rates of downstream profiles, pipes, and films were 36.91% (a month - on - month decrease of 0.09 percentage points), 32.09% (a month - on - month decrease of 0.86 percentage points), and 76.92% (a month - on - month decrease of 0.07 percentage points) respectively. The operating rate of downstream paste resin was 74.54%, a month - on - month increase of 0.720 percentage points. Shipping costs are expected to decline, and domestic PVC export prices are competitive. Current demand may remain sluggish [8]. - **Cost**: The profit of calcium carbide method was -，252.2756 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase in losses of 104.00%. The profit of ethylene method was -，488.965 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase in losses of 2.00%. The double - ton price difference was 2653.25 yuan/ton, remaining flat month - on - month [8]. - **Other Factors**: The main positions are net short, with an increase in short positions. On August 11, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4950 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was -，60 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. Factory inventory decreased by 2.36% month - on - month, while social inventory increased by 7.32% month - on - month. The MA20 remained flat, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed below the MA20 [8][9][10]. 3.2 PVC Market Overview - The report presents yesterday's market overview data, including prices, price changes, inventory, and operating rates of different types of PVC products such as partial monthly spreads, East China SG - 5, and national calcium carbide and ethylene methods [15]. 3.3 PVC Futures Market - **Basis Trend**: It shows the historical data of the basis, PVC East China market price, and the main contract closing price [17][18]. - **Price and Volume Trends**: It includes the trading volume, opening price, highest price, lowest price, closing price, and the position changes of the top 5/20 seats of the main contract [20][21]. - **Spread Analysis**: It displays the historical data of the spreads of the main contracts such as 1 - 9 and 5 - 9 [23][24]. 3.4 PVC Fundamental Analysis - **Calcium Carbide Method - Related**: It provides data on the prices, costs, profits, operating rates, and inventories of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, caustic soda, and the cost - profit situation of chlor - alkali and double - ton price differences [26][29][31][33][35][37]. - **PVC Supply Trend**: It shows the capacity utilization rates, production profits, daily production, weekly maintenance volume, and weekly production of calcium carbide and ethylene methods [38][41]. - **Demand Trend**: It includes the daily sales volume of traders, weekly pre - sales volume, production - sales rate, apparent consumption, downstream average operating rate, and operating rates of different downstream products. It also presents data on real estate investment, construction area, new construction area, sales area, and completion area, as well as social financing scale increment, M2 increment, new special bonds of local governments, and infrastructure investment year - on - year [43][47][54][57]. - **Inventory**: It shows the exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide and ethylene factory inventories, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days [58][59]. - **Ethylene Method**: It provides data on the import volumes of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, FOB spreads of ethylene method, and vinyl chloride import spreads [60][61]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It presents the monthly supply - demand trends of PVC, including export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, and import [63][64].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, the supply side production scheduling has increased and is near the historical average level. The demand recovery is at a low level, and the cost support has increased. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8800 - 9200 [6]. - For polysilicon, the supply side production scheduling continues to increase. The demand side shows continuous recovery, with continuous increases in silicon wafer and battery cell production and a short - term decrease followed by a medium - term recovery in component production. The cost support remains stable. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 51515 - 54455 [9]. - The main bullish factors are cost increase support and manufacturers' production cut plans, while the main bearish factors are the slow recovery of demand after the festival and the strong supply and weak demand of downstream polysilicon. The main logic is that the supply - demand mismatch leads to a difficult - to - change downward trend [11][12]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Viewpoint Industrial Silicon - **Fundamentals**: Last week, the supply was 84,000 tons, a 370% increase from the previous week. The demand was 78,000 tons, a 1143% increase. Polysilicon inventory is at a high level, silicone inventory is at a low level, and the comprehensive silicone production profit is 479 yuan/ton. Aluminum alloy ingot inventory is at a high level, and the Xinjiang sample of oxygen - passing 553 production has a loss of 2888 yuan/ton [6]. - **Basis**: On August 11, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9200 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 200 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium [6]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory increased by 130% to 547,000 tons, sample enterprise inventory decreased by 0.81% to 170,050 tons, and the main port inventory decreased by 0.84% to 118,000 tons [6]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is upward, and the price of the 11 - contract closed above the MA20 [6]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions increased [6]. - **Expectation**: It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8800 - 9200 [6]. Polysilicon - **Fundamentals**: Last week, the production was 29,400 tons, a 10.94% increase from the previous week. The predicted production in August is 130,500 tons, a 22.76% increase from the previous month. The silicon wafer production, battery cell production, and component production have different trends, and the production profit is 9720 yuan/ton [8]. - **Basis**: On August 11, the N - type dense material price was 46,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was - 5985 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount [8]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory is 233,000 tons, a 1.74% increase, at a high level in the same period [8]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is upward, and the price of the 11 - contract closed above the MA20 [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net long, and long positions decreased [8]. - **Expectation**: It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 51515 - 54455 [9]. 2. Market Overview - **Industrial Silicon**: The prices of various contracts and spot prices of industrial silicon showed different degrees of increase. The social inventory, sample enterprise inventory, and main port inventory also had corresponding changes [15]. - **Polysilicon**: The prices of various silicon wafers, battery cells, and components were mostly stable, and the production, inventory, and export data of polysilicon and its downstream products also changed [17]. 3. Other Data and Trends - **Industrial Silicon**: The price - basis and delivery product price difference trends, inventory trends, production and capacity utilization trends, component cost trends, cost - sample area trends, and weekly and monthly supply - demand balance trends are presented [19][22][25][30][32][34][37]. - **Industrial Silicon Downstream**: The price, production, import - export, and inventory trends of organic silicon, aluminum alloy, and polysilicon and their downstream products are also analyzed [40][45][48][59].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **沪镍**: The SHFE nickel contract 2509 is expected to oscillate around the 20 - day moving average. The overall situation shows a long - term surplus pattern, with mixed signals from different indicators. The fundamental aspect is slightly bearish due to increased supply and long - term surplus, but the basis is bullish, and the inventory and主力持仓 are bearish while the price is above the 20 - day moving average which is bullish [3][4]. - **不锈钢**: The stainless steel contract 2510 is expected to oscillate with a slight upward trend. The fundamental situation is neutral, with the basis being bullish, the inventory (futures warehouse receipts) being bearish, and the price above the 20 - day moving average which is bullish [6]. 3. Summary by Directory **沪镍 Daily View** - **基本面**: The external market rose significantly, and the price stood above the 20 - day moving average. There was an arrival of Norwegian nickel slabs last week, increasing supply. The mineral price was stable, the ferronickel price rose steadily, and the cost line rebounded slightly. Stainless steel inventory decreased slightly. New energy vehicle production and sales data were good, but the proportion of ternary battery loading decreased. The long - term surplus pattern remained unchanged, showing a bearish tendency [4]. - **基差**: The spot price was 122,850, and the basis was 720, indicating a bullish signal [4]. - **库存**: LME inventory was 211,296 (a decrease of 936), and SHFE warehouse receipts were 20,723 (an increase of 102), showing a bearish signal [4]. - **盘面**: The closing price was above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average was upward, indicating a bullish signal [4]. - **主力持仓**: The net position of the main players was short, and short positions increased, showing a bearish signal [4]. **不锈钢 Daily View** - **基本面**: The spot stainless steel price rose. In the short term, the nickel ore price was stable, the shipping freight decreased slightly, the ferronickel price rose steadily, the cost line increased slightly, and the stainless steel inventory decreased, showing a neutral situation [6]. - **基差**: The average stainless steel price was 13,812.5, and the basis was 587.5, indicating a bullish signal [6]. - **库存**: The futures warehouse receipts were 103,036 (an increase of 53), showing a bearish signal [6]. - **盘面**: The closing price was above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average was upward, indicating a bullish signal [6]. **多空因素** - **利多因素**: There are expectations for the "Golden September and Silver October" period and anti - involution policies [9]. - **利空因素**: Domestic production continues to rise significantly year - on - year, there are no new demand growth points, and the long - term surplus pattern remains unchanged. Nickel ore and ferronickel prices are weakly stable, and the cost line is still at a low level. The substitution ratio of ternary batteries is increasing [9]. **镍、不锈钢价格基本概览** - **期货 prices**: On August 11, compared with August 8, the SHFE nickel main contract rose by 950 to 122,130, the LME nickel rose by 210 to 15,325, the stainless steel main contract rose by 240 to 13,225 [14]. - **Spot prices**: On August 11, compared with August 8, SMM1 electrolytic nickel rose by 900 to 122,850, 1 Jinchuan nickel rose by 900 to 123,950, 1 imported nickel rose by 950 to 122,100, and nickel beans rose by 950 to 124,200 [14]. **镍仓单、库存** - **上期所镍库存**: As of August 8, the total inventory was 26,194 tons, with futures inventory at 20,621 tons. Compared with the previous period, the total inventory increased by 444 tons, and the futures inventory decreased by 753 tons [16]. - **8 - 11 inventory data**: LME nickel inventory was 211,296 (a decrease of 936), SHFE nickel warehouse receipts were 20,723 (an increase of 102), and the total inventory was 232,019 (a decrease of 834) [17]. **不锈钢仓单、库存** - **8 - 8 inventory data**: Wuxi inventory was 61.62 tons, Foshan inventory was 330,800 tons, and the national inventory was 1,106,300 tons, a decrease of 4,900 tons compared with the previous period. The 300 - series inventory was 657,600 tons, a decrease of 19,100 tons [20]. - **8 - 11 inventory data**: Stainless steel warehouse receipts were 103,036 (an increase of 53) [21]. **镍矿、镍铁价格** - **镍矿 prices**: On August 11, compared with August 8, the price of red earth nickel ore CIF (Ni1.5%) remained at 57 dollars per wet ton, and the price of red earth nickel ore CIF (Ni0.9%) remained at 29 dollars per wet ton. Shipping freight from the Philippines to Lianyungang and Tianjin Port remained unchanged [24]. - **Ferronickel prices**: The price of high - nickel ferronickel rose by 0.5 to 919 yuan per nickel point, and the price of low - nickel ferronickel remained at 3,400 yuan per ton [24]. **不锈钢生产成本** - The traditional cost was 12,864, the scrap steel production cost was 13,588, and the low - nickel + pure nickel cost was 16,461 [26]. **镍进口成本测算** - The imported price was converted to 123,814 yuan per ton [29].