交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2026-01-14甲醇早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 检修状况 甲醇2605： 1、基本面：后期国内甲醇市场整体呈偏弱态势，区域走势分化明确。内地方面，当前内地甲醇开工处于绝对高位水平， 而冬季为传统下游需求淡季，叠加下游用户原料库存普遍处于高位，部分下游存在压车现象，尤其是港口部分烯烃装置 有停车计划，需求还将进一步弱化，对业者情绪压制明显。根据历年经验来看，春节前上游甲醇工厂继续维持低库存仍 有出货需求，缺乏利好驱动，后期内地甲醇不排除回落可能。港口方面，宏观面，资金和情绪撤退引发化工板块集体涨 后回调。基本面来看，海外发货和库存下降逻辑仍在，底部（前低）支撑仍在；但如果下游停车或降负陆续兑现， ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2026-1-14） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 焦煤： 1、基本面：除部分煤矿因井下问题产量受限，其余矿点基本维持正常生产节奏，整体产量小幅波动。 受近期钢厂铁水回升的影响，整体煤焦市场情绪出现回暖迹象，下游贸易商和用户企业抄底补库增加,上 游出货情况明显好转，订单增多，主流煤矿竞拍出现不同程度的溢价，竞拍市场流拍率回至低位，市场 成交明显好转；中性 2、基差：现货市场价1200，基差9；现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：钢厂库存801万吨，港口库存295万吨，独立焦企库存861万吨，总样本库存1957万吨，较上 周减少21万吨；偏多 6、预期：随着高炉复产进程推进，铁水产量稳步回升带动原料需求释放，加之下游焦钢企业厂内存煤 属于同期低位，刚性需求稳定，对 ...

• LLDPE概述： • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，12月份，官方12月制造业PMI为50.1%，较上月上升0.9个百分点，时隔 8个月重回扩张区间。OPEC+1月4日发表声明， 8个主要产油国决定，维持2025年11月初制定的产 量计划，在2026年2月和3月继续暂停增产。近日伊朗政局动荡，引发市场对伊朗原油供应中断的 担忧，推动国际油价反弹。供需端，农膜方面，棚膜需求回落，地膜需求抬头，包装膜企业订单 及开工有所提升。当前LL交割品现货价6800（+100），基本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2605合约基差34，升贴水比例0.5%，偏多； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存42.5万吨（+2.6），中性； • 4. 盘面： LLDPE主力合约20日均线向上，收盘价位于20日线上，偏多； • 5. 主力持仓：LLDPE主力持仓净空，减空，偏空； • 6. 预期：塑料主力合约盘面震荡反弹，OPEC一季度暂停增产，地缘因素推动油价反弹，产业 库存中性，下游需求短期回升，预计PE今日走势震荡 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 聚烯烃早报 2026-1-14 大越期货投资咨询部 朱天一 从业 ...

沪铝早报- 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 ：祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 铝: 1、基本面：碳中和控制产能扩张，国内供应即将到达天花板，下游需求不强劲，房地产延续疲软，宏 观短期情绪多变；中性。 2、基差：现货24270，基差-105，贴水期货，中性。 3、库存：上期所铝库存较上周涨14010吨至143828吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线上，20均线向上运行；偏多。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，多增；偏多。 6、预期：碳中和催发铝行业变革，长期利多铝价，宏观情绪多变，铝价震荡向上运行 每日汇总 | 现货 昨日现货 | 地方 地方 | 中间价 中间价 | 涨跌 涨跌 | | 类型 类型 | 总量（吨） 总量（吨） | 增减 增减 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply of refined zinc in the global market from January to September 2025 was in short supply, with a shortage of 37.37 million tons. The short - term market trend of Shanghai zinc is expected to fluctuate and strengthen. The Shanghai zinc ZN2603 contract is expected to show an upward trend in a volatile manner [2][20] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Analysis - In September 2025, the global refined zinc production was 1.1935 million tons, and the consumption was 1.2292 million tons, with a supply shortage of 35,700 tons. From January to September, the global zinc plate production was 10.3632 million tons, and the consumption was 10.7369 million tons, with a supply shortage of 373,700 tons. In September, the global zinc ore production was 1.1633 million tons, and from January to September, it was 9.9647 million tons, indicating a positive fundamental situation [2] 3.2 Basis Analysis - The spot price was 24,410, and the basis was +130, showing a positive situation [2] 3.3 Inventory Analysis - On January 13, the LME zinc inventory increased by 100 to 106,900 tons compared with the previous day, while on January 12, the Shanghai Futures Exchange zinc inventory warrants decreased by 1,728 tons to 33,613 tons, presenting a neutral situation [2] 3.4 Market Trend Analysis - The previous day, Shanghai zinc showed a volatile trend, closing above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average was upward, indicating a positive situation [2] 3.5 Main Position Analysis - The main position was net long, but the number of long positions decreased, still showing a positive situation [2] 3.6 Futures Market Quotes - On January 13, the trading volume of zinc futures contracts on the futures exchange increased to varying degrees, and the positions of most contracts also changed. Among them, the trading volume of the 2603 contract was 188,273 lots, and the position increased by 9,828 lots [3] 3.7 Spot Market Quotes - On January 13, the prices of 0 zinc in domestic main spot markets such as Guangdong, Tianjin, Shanghai, and Zhejiang all increased. The price of 0 zinc in Shanghai was in the range of 24,360 - 24,460 yuan/ton, with an increase of 190 yuan/ton [4] 3.8 Inventory Statistics - From December 31, 2025, to January 12, 2026, the total zinc ingot inventory in the main domestic markets decreased by 0.25 million tons compared with January 5 and decreased by 0.19 million tons compared with January 8 [5] 3.9 Warehouse Receipt Report - On January 13, the total zinc warehouse receipts on the futures exchange decreased by 1,728 to 33,613 tons. Among them, the warehouse receipts in Guangdong decreased by 921 tons, and those in Tianjin decreased by 807 tons [7] 3.10 LME Zinc Inventory Distribution - On January 13, the LME zinc inventory was 106,900 tons, an increase of 100 tons compared with the previous day [8] 3.11 Zinc Concentrate Price - On January 13, the prices of zinc concentrates in main domestic cities all increased by 150 yuan/ton [10] 3.12 Zinc Ingot Smelter Price - On January 13, the prices of 0 zinc ingots from domestic smelters all increased by 190 yuan/ton [13] 3.13 Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee - On January 13, the domestic zinc concentrate processing fee was mainly in the range of 1,100 - 1,600 yuan/metal ton, and the imported processing fee was 50 US dollars/ton [18] 3.14 Member Trading and Position Ranking - On January 13, the total trading volume of zinc futures by members of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 281,993 lots, an increase of 132,954 lots. The total long position was 83,677 lots, an increase of 6,515 lots, and the total short position was 79,995 lots, an increase of 8,376 lots [19] 3.15 Short - term View - The previous trading day, Shanghai zinc showed a volatile trend, with increased trading volume and more short - position increases. In the short term, the market may fluctuate repeatedly. Technically, the price was above the long - term moving average with strong support. The short - term KDJ indicator declined but was still in the strong area, and the trend indicator showed that the long - position strength increased and the short - position strength decreased, with the long - position strength having an expanding advantage. It is recommended that the Shanghai zinc ZN2603 contract is expected to fluctuate and strengthen [20]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US core CPI inflation has slowed down, Trump has cancelled the meeting with Iran, and gold prices have continued to reach new highs. Although the bet on a January interest rate cut has almost disappeared, due to geopolitical tensions and Fed turmoil, gold prices remain strong. The premium of Shanghai gold has converged to -4 yuan/gram [4]. - Core CPI inflation has slowed down, Trump has cancelled the meeting with Iran, and silver prices have continued to rise. The premium of Shanghai silver has expanded to 2,600 yuan/gram, and domestic sentiment has heated up again. Due to geopolitical concerns and high - sentiment, silver prices also remain strong [5]. - After Trump's inauguration, the world has entered a period of extreme turmoil and change. The inflation expectation has shifted to an economic recession expectation. Gold prices are difficult to fall. Recently, the expectation of Fed interest rate cuts and optimistic expectations for the Russia - Ukraine peace talks have jointly affected the market. Coupled with liquidity concerns, there is still upward momentum for gold prices, but it is limited [9]. - After Trump's inauguration, silver prices still mainly follow gold prices. Concerns about tariffs have a stronger impact on silver prices, and silver prices are prone to larger increases [12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review - **Gold**: The US core CPI inflation slowed down, Trump cancelled the meeting with Iran, and gold prices continued to reach new highs. The three major US stock indexes closed down across the board, and the three major European stock indexes closed mixed. US bond yields were mixed, with the 10 - year US bond yield rising 0.40 basis points to 4.179%. The US dollar index rose 0.28% to 99.18, and the offshore RMB depreciated slightly against the US dollar to 6.9736. COMEX gold futures fell 0.44% to $4,594.40 per ounce [4]. - **Silver**: Core CPI inflation slowed down, Trump cancelled the meeting with Iran, and silver prices continued to rise. The three major US stock indexes closed down across the board, and the three major European stock indexes closed mixed. US bond yields were mixed, with the 10 - year US bond yield rising 0.40 basis points to 4.179%. The US dollar index rose 0.28% to 99.18, and the offshore RMB depreciated slightly against the US dollar to 6.9736. COMEX silver futures rose 2.08% to $86.86 per ounce [5]. 3.2. Daily Tips - **Gold**: The basis of gold is - 2.56, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is neutral. The gold futures warehouse receipts are 98,283 kilograms, a decrease of 630 kilograms, which is bearish. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish. The main net position is long, and the long position of the main force has increased, which is bullish [4]. - **Silver**: The basis of silver is + 26, with the spot at a premium to the futures, which is neutral. The Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts are 630,066 kilograms, an increase of 19,577 kilograms, which is bullish. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish. The main net position is long, and the long position of the main force has increased, which is bullish [5]. 3.3. Today's Focus - Time TBD: China's December imports and exports and trade balance, and possibly the incremental social financing scale, new RMB loans from January to December, and money supply such as December M2; the US Supreme Court may make a ruling on the Trump tariff case [14]. - 16:20: Speech by European Central Bank Deputy President de Guindos [14]. - 17:15: Speech by Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Alan Taylor [14]. - 21:30: US November PPI [14]. - 22:50: Speech by Philadelphia Fed President Paulson on the economic outlook [14]. - 23:00: US December existing - home sales annualized total, and speech by Fed Governor Milan on supervision and monetary policy [14]. - 23:30: Speech by Bank of England Deputy President Dave Ramsden [14]. - Next day 01:00: Speech by Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari and participation in a discussion by Atlanta Fed President Bostic [14]. - Next day 03:00: Release of the Fed's "Beige Book" on economic conditions, and opening remarks by New York Fed President Williams [14]. 3.4. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The basis of gold is - 2.56, with the spot at a discount to the futures. The gold futures warehouse receipts are 98,283 kilograms, a decrease of 630 kilograms [4]. - **Silver**: The basis of silver is + 26, with the spot at a premium to the futures. The Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts are 630,066 kilograms, an increase of 19,577 kilograms [5]. 3.5. Positioning Data - **Gold**: The main net position is long, and the long position of the main force has increased. As of January 13, 2026, the long position volume is 180,315, an increase of 1.73% from the previous day; the short position volume is 48,004, a decrease of 2.30% from the previous day; the net position is 132,311, an increase of 3.28% from the previous day [4][30]. - **Silver**: The main net position is long, and the long position of the main force has increased. As of January 13, 2026, the long position volume is 359,134, an increase of 0.01% from the previous day; the short position volume is 293,066, a decrease of 0.83% from the previous day; the net position is 66,068, an increase of 3.90% from the previous day [5][32].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The overall supply - demand of iron ore is loose, with steel mills' hot metal production starting to decrease, terminal demand being weak, and port inventories piling up. However, due to strong macro - sentiment, an oscillatory view is taken. The factors influencing the market are mixed, with some being bullish and others bearish [2]. 3. Summary by Related Aspects Fundamental Analysis - The production of hot metal by steel mills is decreasing, the overall supply - demand is loose, port inventories are accumulating, and terminal demand is weak, which is bearish [2]. Basis Analysis - The spot price of PB powder at Rizhao Port converted to the futures price is 875, with a basis of 52; the spot price of Brazilian blend at Rizhao Port converted to the futures price is 886, with a basis of 64. The spot price is at a premium to the futures price, which is bullish [2]. Inventory Analysis - Port inventories are 17,044.44 tons, increasing both on a month - on - month and year - on - year basis, which is bearish [2]. Market Trend Analysis - The price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward, which is bullish [2]. Position Analysis - The net long position of the main iron ore contract is held, but the long position is decreasing, which is bullish [2]. Bullish Factors - Hot metal production remains at a high level [6]. - Port inventories are decreasing [6]. - There are import losses [6]. - The price of downstream steel products is rising, and the ability to bear high - priced raw materials is strong [6]. Bearish Factors - The later shipping volume will increase [6]. - Terminal demand remains weak [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The sugar market is expected to have a surplus in the 2025/26 season according to multiple institutions. The sugar price is under pressure. The main contract 05 of sugar futures is likely to be under pressure around 5300. Currently in the peak of new sugar listing and off - season of consumption with expected significant increase in imported sugar, the rebound strength is limited, and it will fluctuate in the range of 5200 - 5300 in the short term [5] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Previous Day's Review - Not provided in the given content 3.2 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: ISO predicts a 163 - million - ton global sugar surplus in the 2025/26 season; DATAGRO lowers the surplus forecast from 280 million tons to 100 million tons; Czarnikow raises the surplus forecast to 740 million tons, 120 million tons higher than the August estimate; StoneX predicts a 370 - million - ton surplus. As of the end of October 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 2025/26 season in China was 883,000 tons, cumulative sales were 91,600 tons, and the sales rate was 10.37%. In November 2025, China imported 440,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year decrease of 90,000 tons, and the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 114,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 108,200 tons [4] - **Basis**: The spot price in Liuzhou is 5380, and the basis for the 05 contract is 127, with the spot price at a premium to the futures price, showing a neutral situation [6] - **Inventory**: As of the end of October in the 2025/26 sugar - making season, the industrial inventory was 791,400 tons, which is bearish [6] - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is flat, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, showing a bullish signal [6] - **Main Position**: The position is bearish, the net short position is decreasing, and the main trend is unclear, being bearish [6] - **Likely Influencing Factors**: Bullish factors include a possible decline in Brazilian sugar production in the 2026/27 season, an increase in syrup tariffs, and the use of sucrose in the new formula of American cola. Bearish factors are the increase in global sugar production, a surplus in the new season, the opening of the import profit window due to the decline of the international sugar price to around 14.5 cents per pound, and increased import impact [7] 3.3 Today's Focus - Not provided in the given content 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Supply - Demand Forecast by Institutions**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the 2025/26 sugar season. StoneX forecasts a 370 - million - ton surplus due to increased production in Brazil, India, and Thailand and weak global consumption growth; ISO forecasts a 163 - million - ton surplus as global sugar production is expected to increase by 3.15% while consumption only increases by 0.6%; Datagro forecasts a 153 - million - ton surplus as the global supply is expected to shift from shortage to surplus [31] - **Domestic Sugar - Related Data in China**: From 2023/24 to 2025/26 (12 - month and 1 - month forecasts), the sugarcane and beet planting areas, yields, production, imports, consumption, and price ranges are provided. For example, in 2025/26, the expected sugar production is 11.7 million tons, imports are 5 million tons, consumption is 15.7 million tons, and the international sugar price is in the range of 14.0 - 18.5 cents per pound, while the domestic sugar price is in the range of 5500 - 6000 yuan per ton [33] - **Import Cost**: In late October 2025, the average price of raw sugar was about 14.23 cents per pound, and the cost of out - of - quota imported sugar was about 5086 yuan per ton, with considerable import profits due to the continuous decline of the international sugar price [37] 3.5 Position Data - Not provided in the given content

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall fundamentals of urea are neutral, with the current daily production and operating rate at a high level compared to the same period last year. As maintenance work concludes, the operating rate is expected to rise further. The comprehensive inventory continues to decline, showing an obvious de - stocking pattern. The order demand has improved significantly compared to the previous period, and the agricultural reserve demand has increased. Industrial demand is mainly based on actual needs, and the operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine are at a moderate level. There is a large price gap between domestic and international markets for exports, and the recent low - price replenishment demand is relatively concentrated. However, the domestic urea market remains in a state of oversupply. The spot price of the delivery product is 1740 (+10). The UR2605 contract basis is - 34, with a premium/discount ratio of - 2.0%, indicating a bearish signal. The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.157 million tons (- 34,000 tons), which is neutral. The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, showing a bullish sign. The net position of the main UR contract is short, and the short position is being reduced, indicating a bearish signal. The main urea contract is expected to fluctuate strongly, and the operating rate is expected to continue to rise. The order demand has improved, the reserve demand has increased, and the inventory is being depleted. It is expected that urea will fluctuate today [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: Current daily production and operating rate are at a high level year - on - year. As maintenance returns, the operating rate is expected to rise. Comprehensive inventory continues to decline with an obvious de - stocking pattern. Order demand has improved, agricultural reserve demand has increased, industrial demand is based on actual needs, and the operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine are moderate. There is a large export price gap, and low - price replenishment demand is concentrated. The domestic market is still oversupplied. The spot price of the delivery product is 1740 (+10), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The UR2605 contract basis is - 34, with a premium/discount ratio of - 2.0%, which is bearish [4]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.157 million tons (- 34,000 tons), which is neutral [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the main UR contract is short, and the short position is being reduced, which is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The main urea contract is expected to fluctuate strongly, with the operating rate continuing to rise, improved order demand, increased reserve demand, and inventory depletion. It is expected that urea will fluctuate today [4]. - **Likely Factors**: Inventory de - stocking and improved orders [5]. - **Negative Factors**: Domestic oversupply [5]. - **Main Logic**: International prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5]. Spot and Futures Market Data | Category | Details | |--|--| | **Spot Market** | The price of the spot delivery product is 1740, up 10; the price of Shandong spot is 1740, up 10; the price of Henan spot is 1740, unchanged; the FOB China price is 2807 [6]. | | **Futures Market** | The 05 contract price is 1774, down 9; the basis is - 34, up 19; UR01 price is 1692, unchanged; UR05 price is 1774, down 9; UR09 price is 1749, down 14 [6]. | | **Inventory** | The number of warehouse receipts is 13,355, up 155; UR comprehensive inventory is 1.157 million tons; UR manufacturer inventory is 1.022 million tons; UR port inventory is 135,000 tons [6]. | Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2018 to 2024, urea production capacity has been increasing, with growth rates ranging from 8.4% to 15.5%. Production has also generally increased, and the import dependence ratio has shown a certain degree of fluctuation. The apparent consumption and actual consumption have also increased year by year, with consumption growth rates ranging from 0.3% to 17.9%. The expected production capacity in 2025E is 49.06 million tons, with a growth rate of 11.0% [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral rating to the natural rubber industry [4][9] 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, the spot is strong, domestic inventories are starting to decrease, and the tire operating rate is at a high level. The market has support below, and it is advisable to buy on dips [4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - The fundamentals of natural rubber show that supply is increasing, spot is strong, domestic inventories are decreasing, and tire operating rate is high. The overall assessment is neutral. The basis is -175 (spot price is 15800), indicating a bearish signal. The inventory situation is mixed, with Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory increasing week - on - week but decreasing year - on - year, and Qingdao area inventory increasing both week - on - week and year - on - year. The price is above the 20 - day line and the 20 - day line is upward, showing a bullish sign. The main position has turned from net short to net long, also bullish. The market is expected to have support below, suggesting buying on dips [4] 3.2 Fundamental Data 3.2.1 Supply and Demand - **Supply**: Supply is increasing [4][6] - **Demand**: Downstream consumption is high, with seasonal rebounds in automobile production and sales, and an increase in tire industry exports, but tire production has decreased year - on - year [6][23][26][29][32] 3.2.2 Inventory - Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory has increased week - on - week, and Qingdao area inventory has recently rebounded, increasing both week - on - week and year - on - year [4][14][17] 3.2.3 Price - On January 13, 2024, the spot price of whole latex (non - deliverable) increased, and the basis strengthened on the same day [8][35] 3.2.4 Import - Import volume has rebounded [20] 3.3 Multi - empty Factors and Main Risk Points - **Likely to Rise**: High downstream consumption, resistant spot prices, and domestic anti - involution [6] - **Likely to Fall**: Increasing supply, bearish domestic economic indicators, and trade frictions [6]