1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate is shifting towards demand - led. The current situation is characterized by over - supply and weak demand due to capacity mismatch, and the downward trend is difficult to change. There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include manufacturers' production cut plans, a decline in lithium carbonate imports from Chile, and a decrease in lithium spodumene imports. Negative factors are the continuous high supply at the ore/salt lake end with limited decline and insufficient willingness to receive goods at the power battery end [8][9][10][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Fundamentals**: Last week, lithium carbonate production was 17,268 tons, a 7.31% week - on - week decrease but higher than the historical average. The inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials decreased week - on - week. The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate increased by 0.37% day - on - week, with a profit of 1,884 yuan/ton; the cost of purchased lithium mica remained unchanged, with a loss of 6,850 yuan/ton. The cost of the recycling end is close to that of the ore end, and the production enthusiasm is average. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end is 31,745 yuan/ton, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [8]. - **Basis**: On August 4th, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 71,350 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 2,310 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: The smelter inventory decreased by 6.18% week - on - week, lower than the historical average; the downstream inventory increased by 7.18% week - on - week, higher than the historical average; other inventories decreased by 2.42% week - on - week, higher than the historical average. The total inventory decreased by 1.00% week - on - week, higher than the historical average [8]. - **Market**: The MA20 of the market is upward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed below the MA20 [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing [8]. - **Expectation**: In July 2025, the production of lithium carbonate was 81,530 physical tons, and the predicted production for next month is 84,200 physical tons, a 3.27% month - on - month increase. The import volume in July was 18,000 physical tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 18,500 physical tons, a 2.78% month - on - month increase. The demand is expected to strengthen next month, and the inventory may be reduced. The CIF price of 6% concentrate has increased day - on - day and is lower than the historical average. The 2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 67,340 - 70,500 [8]. 3.2 Market Overview - **Yesterday's Market Overview**: The prices of various lithium - related products such as lithium ore, lithium carbonate, and lithium hydroxide showed different degrees of changes. For example, the price of lithium ore decreased by 0.32% - 0.35%, and the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged [14]. - **Lithium Carbonate Market Overview**: Supply - side data shows changes in indicators such as weekly and monthly operating rates, processing costs, and production of lithium carbonate. Demand - side data includes changes in production, inventory, and consumption of lithium - related products such as lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials [18]. 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore - **Price and Production**: The price of lithium ore has fluctuated over the years. The production of Chinese sample lithium spodumene mines and domestic lithium mica has also changed. The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate has decreased year - on - year, and the self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore has shown different trends [24]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The supply - demand balance of lithium ore shows differences in demand, production, import, and export from July 2024 to July 2025 [26]. 3.4 Supply - Lithium Carbonate - **Production and Import**: The weekly and monthly production, operating rates, and import volumes of lithium carbonate from different sources (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt lake, and recycling materials) have changed over time. The production capacity of lithium carbonate has also shown an upward trend [29]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate shows differences in demand, export, import, production, and balance from July 2024 to July 2025 [33]. 3.5 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - **Production and Export**: The production, operating rates, and export volumes of lithium hydroxide from different sources (causticization and smelting) have changed over time. The production capacity of lithium hydroxide has also shown an upward trend [36]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide shows differences in demand, export, import, production, and balance from July 2024 to July 2025 [38]. 3.6 Lithium Compound Cost and Profit - **Cost and Profit of Different Materials**: The cost and profit of lithium compounds such as lithium spodumene, lithium mica, and imported lithium carbonate have changed over time. The cost and profit of recycling materials and the purification profit of industrial - grade lithium carbonate also show different trends [41][44][47]. 3.7 Inventory - **Inventory of Lithium Carbonate and Lithium Hydroxide**: The monthly and weekly inventories of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide from different sources (smelter, downstream, etc.) have changed over time [49]. 3.8 Demand - Lithium Battery - **Price, Production, and Export**: The prices, production, and export volumes of lithium batteries have changed over time. The production and inventory of battery cells and the winning bids of energy storage projects also show different trends [52][55]. 3.9 Demand - Ternary Precursor - **Price, Cost, and Production**: The prices, costs, and production volumes of ternary precursors have changed over time. The supply - demand balance shows differences in demand, export, import, production, and balance from July 2024 to July 2025 [58][61]. 3.10 Demand - Ternary Material - **Price, Cost, and Production**: The prices, costs, and production volumes of ternary materials have changed over time. The processing fees, export, and import volumes also show different trends [64][66]. 3.11 Demand - Phosphoric Acid Iron/Phosphoric Acid Iron Lithium - **Price, Cost, and Production**: The prices, costs, and production volumes of phosphoric acid iron and phosphoric acid iron lithium have changed over time. The monthly operating rates of phosphoric acid iron and phosphoric acid iron lithium also show different trends [68][71]. 3.12 Demand - New Energy Vehicles - **Production, Sales, and Penetration Rate**: The production, sales, export volumes, and sales penetration rates of new energy vehicles have changed over time. The retail - wholesale ratios of hybrid and pure - electric vehicles and the inventory warning and inventory indices of dealers also show different trends [76][77][80].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 菜粕早报 2025-08-05 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸菜粕观点和策略 菜粕RM2509：2680至2740区间震荡 1.基本面：菜粕震荡回升，豆粕走势带动和技术性震荡整理，菜粕油厂开机处于低位，菜粕 库存维持低位支撑盘面。菜粕现货需求短期进入旺季，进口油菜籽到港量增多但油厂库 存短期无压力，盘面短期维持区间震荡。中国对加拿大油渣饼进口加征关税短期利多菜 粕，但未对油菜籽进口加征关税，利多程度也或有限。中性 2.基差：现货2600，基差-78，贴水期货。偏空 3.库存：菜粕库存1.9万吨，上周1.51万吨，周环比增加25.83%，去年同期3.4万吨，同比减 少44.12% ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沥青期货早报 2025年8月5日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，根据隆众，2025年8月份国内沥青总计划排产量为241.3万吨，环比降幅5.1%, 同比增幅17.1%。本周国内石油沥青样本产能利用率为34.7555%，环比增加3.835个百分 点，全国样本企业出货27.24万吨，环比增加1.26%,样本企业产量为58万吨，环比增加 12.40%,样本企业装置检修量预估为60.4万吨，环比减少5.91%,本周炼厂有所增产，提升 供应压力。下周或将增加供给压力。 需求端来看，重交沥青开工率为33.1%，环比增加0.15个百分点，低于历史平均水平；建筑 沥青开工率为18.2%，环比持平，低于历史平均水平；改性沥青开工 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand situation of industrial silicon and polysilicon is complex. For industrial silicon, there is an issue of supply exceeding demand, with the supply side having increased production last week, while demand has been continuously sluggish. For polysilicon, the supply side is also relatively strong, and the demand recovery is at a low level [6][8][9]. - The cost support of industrial silicon is expected to increase, and it is predicted to fluctuate in the range of 8165 - 8555 for the 2509 contract. Polysilicon is expected to fluctuate in the range of 47310 - 50130 for the 2511 contract [6][10]. - The main logic for the current market situation is the mismatch of production capacity, leading to a situation where supply exceeds demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change [15]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily View - Industrial Silicon - **Supply - side**: Last week, the supply of industrial silicon was 81,000 tons, a 3.85% increase compared to the previous week. The expected production schedule on the supply side is decreasing and remains at a low level [6]. - **Demand - side**: Last week, the demand for industrial silicon was 70,000 tons, a 1.40% decrease compared to the previous week. The demand recovery is at a low level [6]. - **Inventory**: The silicon inventory is 229,000 tons, at a high level. The social inventory is 540,000 tons, a 0.93% increase compared to the previous week. The sample enterprise inventory is 171,450 tons, a 3.40% decrease compared to the previous week. The main port inventory is 119,000 tons, a 0.83% decrease compared to the previous week [6]. - **Cost**: In the Xinjiang region, the production loss of the sample oxygen - passing 553 is 2,354 yuan/ton, and the cost support during the wet season has weakened [6]. - **Others**: The 09 contract basis is 940 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures. The MA20 is upward, and the 09 contract price closes below the MA20. The net short position of the main contract is increasing [6]. 3.2 Daily View - Polysilicon - **Supply - side**: Last week, the production of polysilicon was 26,500 tons, a 3.92% increase compared to the previous week. The predicted production schedule for August is 130,500 tons, a 22.76% increase compared to the previous month [8]. - **Demand - side**: Last week, the silicon wafer production was 11 GW, a 1.78% decrease compared to the previous week. The inventory is 181,500 tons, a 1.56% increase compared to the previous week. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss state. The production of battery cells and components also shows different trends in production and inventory [9]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory is 229,000 tons, a 5.76% decrease compared to the previous week, at a high level compared to the same period in history [12]. - **Cost**: The average cost of the polysilicon N - type material industry is 36,500 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 9,500 yuan/ton [9]. - **Others**: The 11 contract basis is - 1980 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. The MA20 is upward, and the 11 contract price closes above the MA20. The net long position of the main contract is decreasing [12]. 3.3 Market Overview - **Industrial Silicon**: The prices of various contracts and spot prices have decreased to varying degrees. The weekly social inventory has increased, while the sample enterprise inventory has decreased, and the main port inventory has decreased [18]. - **Polysilicon**: The prices of various products such as silicon wafers, battery cells, and components have remained relatively stable, with some changes in production, inventory, and export volume [20]. 3.4 Other Aspects - **Price - Basis and Delivery Product Spread Trends**: The report presents the trends of the SI main contract basis and the 421 - 553 spread [22]. - **Inventory**: It shows the trends of industrial silicon inventory in different regions and types, including delivery warehouses, ports, and sample enterprises [26]. - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: The report shows the trends of industrial silicon production and capacity utilization in different regions and time periods [28]. - **Cost Composition**: It presents the trends of main production area electricity prices, silicon stone prices, graphite electrode prices, and some reducing agent prices [33]. - **Cost - Sample Region Trends**: It shows the cost - profit trends of 421 in Sichuan and Yunnan and the oxygen - passing 553 in Xinjiang [35]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The report provides the weekly and monthly supply - demand balance tables of industrial silicon and the monthly supply - demand balance table of polysilicon [37][40][64]. - **Downstream Industry Trends**: It details the price, production, inventory, import - export, and other trends of downstream industries such as organic silicon, aluminum alloy, and polysilicon [43][51][61].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Bean Meal**: The U.S. soybean market is influenced by weather uncertainties and awaits the follow - up of China - U.S. tariff negotiations. Domestically, high soybean imports in July and weak spot prices suppress the bean meal market. It is expected to return to a range - bound pattern, with the M2509 contract oscillating between 3000 and 3060 [8]. - **Soybeans**: The U.S. soybean market has a bottom support due to weather uncertainties, but the high - yield South American soybeans and good U.S. planting weather limit its upside. Domestically, the cost - performance advantage of domestic soybeans over imports supports the bottom, while high import volumes and expected domestic soybean production increase limit the upside. The A2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 4080 and 4180 [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - **Bean Meal**: Fundamental analysis shows a neutral stance. The basis is at a discount, the inventory has increased, the price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the main long positions have decreased while funds have flowed in. It is expected to be range - bound [8]. - **Soybeans**: The fundamental view is neutral. The basis is at a premium, the inventory has slightly increased, the price is below the 20 - day moving average but heading up, and the main positions have shifted from short to long while funds have flowed out. The price is expected to face constraints on the upside [10]. 3.2 Recent News - The progress of China - U.S. tariff negotiations is short - term positive for U.S. soybeans. The U.S. soybean planting weather is relatively good recently, and the market is expected to oscillate around the 1000 - point mark, waiting for further guidance [12]. - High domestic soybean imports in July, increasing bean meal inventory, and uncertainties in U.S. soybean weather and China - U.S. trade negotiations have led to a return to a range - bound pattern for bean meal [12]. - Reduced domestic pig - farming profits have led to low expectations for pig restocking. However, the recent increase in bean meal demand and uncertainties in China - U.S. trade negotiations have also contributed to the range - bound pattern [12]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bean Meal Bullish**: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, relatively low domestic bean meal inventory, and uncertainties in U.S. soybean - growing weather [13]. - **Bean Meal Bearish**: High domestic soybean imports in July and the expected high - yield South American soybeans [13]. - **Soybean Bullish**: Cost support from imported soybeans and expected increase in domestic soybean demand [14]. - **Soybean Bearish**: Expected high - yield Brazilian soybeans and expected increase in domestic soybean production [14]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Global Soybean Supply - Demand Balance**: Data from 2015 - 2024 shows changes in harvest area, production, consumption, and inventory, with the inventory - to - consumption ratio generally fluctuating [31]. - **Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance**: From 2015 - 2024, data on harvest area, production, imports, consumption, and inventory are presented, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio has also changed over time [32]. 3.5 Position Data - **Bean Meal Futures**: The futures price has rebounded from the bottom, the spot price has been relatively stable, and the high - level spot discount has narrowed [22]. - **Soybean and Bean Meal Warehouse Receipts**: Data from July 23 to August 4 shows changes in warehouse receipts for soybeans and bean meal [19].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamental situation of soda ash shows strong supply and weak demand, and the sentiment of policy benefits has faded. In the short term, it is expected to mainly operate in a weak and fluctuating manner [2]. - The supply - demand mismatch pattern in the industry has not been effectively improved, with high supply, declining terminal demand, and high inventory [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Viewpoints - **Fundamentals**: The "anti - involution" sentiment has faded. There are few alkali plant overhauls, and supply remains high. The daily melting volume of downstream float glass is stable, while that of photovoltaic glass has declined significantly, and terminal demand is weak. The inventory of soda ash plants is at a historical high, which is bearish [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy - quality soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,240 yuan/ton, and the closing price of SA2509 is 1,253 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 13 yuan. The futures price is higher than the spot price, which is bearish [2]. - **Inventory**: The national in - plant inventory of soda ash is 1.7958 million tons, a decrease of 3.69% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average, which is bearish [2][33]. - **Disk**: The price is running below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward, which is neutral [2]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [2]. - **Expectation**: The fundamental situation of soda ash is characterized by strong supply and weak demand, and the sentiment of policy benefits has faded. In the short term, it is expected to mainly operate in a weak and fluctuating manner [2]. 2. Influencing Factors Summary - **Positive Factors**: The peak summer overhaul period is approaching, and production will decline [3]. - **Negative Factors**: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production - start plans this year. The industry's production is at a historical high. The downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy - quality soda ash has reduced production, and the demand for soda ash has weakened. The "anti - involution" policy sentiment has faded [5]. 3. Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 1,253 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.24% from the previous value. The low - end price of heavy - quality soda ash in Shahe is 1,240 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.80% from the previous value. The main basis is - 13 yuan, an increase of 116.67% from the previous value [6]. 4. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy - quality soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market is 1,240 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. 5. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - **Production Profit**: The profit of heavy - quality soda ash by the North China ammonia - soda process is - 22.90 yuan/ton, and that by the East China co - production method is 56.50 yuan/ton. The production profit is recovering from a historical low [15]. - **Operating Rate and Production**: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 80.27%, and the operating rate is expected to decline seasonally. The weekly production of soda ash is 699,800 tons, including 398,700 tons of heavy - quality soda ash, and the production is at a historical high [18][20]. - **Capacity Changes**: In 2023, the newly - added production capacity was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; in 2025, the planned newly - added production capacity is 7.5 million tons, with an actual production - start of 1 million tons [21]. 6. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - **Production and Sales Rate**: The weekly production and sales rate of soda ash is 109.83% [24]. - **Downstream Demand**: The daily melting volume of national float glass is 159,600 tons, and the operating rate is stable at 75%. The price of photovoltaic glass has been continuously falling. Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, the industry has reduced production, and the in - production daily melting volume has decreased significantly [27][30]. 7. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The national in - plant inventory of soda ash is 1.7958 million tons, a decrease of 3.69% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [33]. 8. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance sheet from 2017 to 2024E shows changes in effective capacity, production, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [34].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铜早报- 大越期货投资咨询部 : 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 铜: 1、基本面：冶炼企业有减产动作，废铜政策有所放开，7月份制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.3%， 比上月下降0.4个百分点；中性。 2、基差：现货78345，基差15，升水期货；中性。 3、库存：8月4日铜库存减2175至139575吨，上期所铜库存较上周减880吨至72543吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线下，20均线向下运行；偏空。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，多减；偏多。 6、预期：美联储降息放缓，库存回升，地缘扰动仍存，淡季消费承压，铜价震荡调整. 近期利多利空分析 利多： 利空： 逻辑： 国内政策宽松 和 贸易战升级 风险： 自然灾害 1、俄乌,伊以地缘政治扰动。 2、美联储降息。 3、矿端增产缓 ...

焦煤焦炭早报（2025-8-5） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 焦煤： 1、基本面：前期因环保、顶库等原因减停产的煤矿陆续复产，但复产速度偏慢。下游目前仍在补库周 期，煤矿普遍出货顺畅，部分紧张煤种价格仍有上涨预期，不过经过煤价前期的大幅上涨，下游对部分 高价煤种开始谨慎采购，线上竞拍资源涨跌互现，部分煤种价格出现回落；偏多 2、基差：现货市场价1070，基差-71；现货贴水期货；偏空 3、库存：钢厂库存803.8万吨，港口库存282.1万吨，独立焦企库存844.1万吨，总样本库存1930万吨， 较上周减少3万吨；偏多 4、盘面：20日线向上，价格在20日线上方；偏多 5、主力持仓：焦煤主力净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：焦炭第五轮提涨落地，焦企利润进一步修复，开工暂稳，虽 ...

沪铝早报- 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 ：祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 铝: 1、基本面：碳中和控制产能扩张，下游需求不强劲，房地产延续疲软，宏观短期情绪多变；中性。 2、基差：现货20470，基差-55，贴水期货，中性。 3、库存：上期所铝库存较上周增1737吨至117527吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线下，20均线向下运行；偏空。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，多减；偏多。 6、预期：碳中和催发铝行业变革，长期利多铝价，多空交织，铝价震荡运行。 近期利多利空分析 利多： 利空： 逻辑： 降息和需求疲软博弈 1、碳中和控制产能扩张。 2、俄乌地缘政治扰动，影响俄铝供应。 3、降息 1、全球经济并不乐观，高铝价会压制下游消费。 2、铝材出口退税取消 每日汇总 | 现货 昨日现货 | 地方 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪镍&不锈钢早报—2025年8月5日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资：F3023048 投资咨询证：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 沪镍 每日观点 6、结论：沪镍2509：20均线上下宽幅震荡运行。 1、基本面：外盘反弹，但20均线承压。产业链上，矿价弱稳，镍铁价格同样弱稳，但部分报价有所回 升，成本线依然在低位。不锈钢7、8月是传统消费淡季，本周库存300系有小幅上升。新能源汽车产销 数据较好，但三元电池装车量在下降，镍在新能源的需求下降。中长线过剩格局不变。偏空 2、基差：现货121250，基差620，偏多 3、库存：LME库存209082，0，上交所仓单21170，-204，偏空 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线以下，20均线向上，中性 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增，偏空 多空因素 影响因素总结 利多： 利空： 1、接下来金九银十预期 2、反内 ...