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大越期货油脂早报-20260114
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2026-01-14 03:06
证券代码:839979 每日观点 油脂早报 2026-01-14投资咨询部 分析师: 王明伟 从业资格号: F0283029 投资咨询号: Z0010442 TEL: 0575-85226759 豆油 1.基本面:MPOB报告显示,MPOB月报显示马棕12月产量环比减少5.46%至182.98万吨,出口环比增加 8.55%至131.65万吨,月末库存环比增加7.59%至305.06万吨。报告整体稍偏空,库存数据超预期。目前 船调机构显示1月目前马棕出口数据环比增加29%,后续进入减产季,棕榈油供应上压力减小。中性 2.基差:豆油现货8320,基差334,现货升水期货。偏多 3.库存:1月9日豆油商业库存102万吨,前108万吨,环比-6万吨,同比+14.7% 。偏空 4.盘面:期价运行在20日均线上,20日均线朝上。偏多 5.主力持仓:豆油主力多增。偏多 6.预期:油脂价格震荡整理,国内基本面宽松,国内油脂供应稳定。中美关系僵持,美豆新豆出口受挫, 价格承压。马棕库存偏中性,需求有所好转,印尼B40促进国内消费,26年预计实施B50计划。国内油脂 基本面偏中性,进口库存稳定。豆油Y2605:7800-8200 ...
大越期货沪镍、不锈钢早报-20260114
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2026-01-14 03:04
交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】1091号 沪镍&不锈钢早报—2026年1月14日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资:F3023048 投资咨询证:Z0013626 联系方式:0575-85226759 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 沪镍 每日观点 1、基本面:外盘冲高回落,高位震荡调整。短期现货货源偏紧。产业链上,镍矿价格小幅上涨,矿山 看涨意愿强。镍铁价格大幅上涨,成本线上升。不锈钢库存回落。精炼镍库存持续高位,过剩格局不 变。新能源汽车产销数据良好,但总体镍需求提振有限。偏空 2、基差:现货145200,基差6750,偏多 3、库存:LME库存284148,-414,上交所仓单39436,-234,偏空 4、盘面:收盘价收于20均线以上,20均线向上,偏多 5、主力持仓:主力持仓净多,多减,偏多 6、结论:沪镍2602:短线波动较大,日内交易。 不锈钢 每日观点 1、基本面:现货不锈钢价格下降,短期镍矿价格稳中有升,海运费小幅回落,矿山挺价意 ...
大越期货纯碱早报-20260114
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2026-01-14 03:04
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of soda ash remain weak, and it is expected to mainly fluctuate with a downward trend in the short term. The supply is at a high level, terminal demand is declining, and inventory is at a high level compared to the same period. The mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [2][5]. Summary by Directory 1. Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract decreased from 1239 yuan/ton to 1212 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.18%. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe dropped from 1185 yuan/ton to 1160 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.11%. The main basis changed from - 54 yuan/ton to - 52 yuan/ton, a decline of 3.70% [6]. 2. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market is 1160 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. - The profit of heavy soda ash for North China ammonia - alkali method is - 57.85 yuan/ton, and for East China co - production method is - 40 yuan/ton, at a historical low [15]. - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash is 81.65%, and the weekly output is 75.36 tons, with heavy soda ash at 40.45 tons, at a historical high [18][21]. - From 2023 to 2025, there has been a large - scale expansion of soda ash production capacity. The total planned new capacity in 2023 was 640 tons, 180 tons in 2024, and 750 tons in 2025 (with 100 tons actually put into production) [22]. 3. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash is 108.54% [25]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass is 15.01 tons, and the operating rate is 71.96% [28]. - The demand for soda ash from photovoltaic glass has weakened [4]. 4. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The national soda ash inventory in factories is 157.27 tons, an increase of 11.67% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [34]. 5. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective capacity, production, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand gap, capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [35]. 6. Influencing Factors - **Likely to be positive**: Equipment problems have led to reduced maintenance in enterprises, and the recovery of soda ash supply is slow [3]. - **Likely to be negative**: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and the industry output is at a historical high. The downstream photovoltaic glass has cut production, reducing the demand for soda ash [4].
大越期货玻璃早报-20260114
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2026-01-14 03:03
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The glass industry has weak fundamentals, with limited recovery in production profits, increasing cold repairs, and shrinking supply. Downstream deep - processing orders are weak due to the real - estate drag, and inventory is at a historically high level for the same period. In the short term, it is expected to mainly operate in a weak and volatile manner [2][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 1096 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.11% from the previous value. The spot price of Shahe Safety large - size glass was 936 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.85%. The main basis was - 160 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19.60% [6]. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large - size boards in the spot benchmark area of Hebei Shahe was 944 yuan/ton, remaining the same as the previous day [11]. Fundamental Analysis - Cost Side No detailed content provided. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - The number of operating float glass production lines nationwide was 216, with an operating rate of 71.96%, at a historically low level for the same period. The daily melting capacity of float glass was 150,100 tons, also at a historically low level for the same period [18][20]. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - In November 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.6944 million tons [24]. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises was 55.518 million weight boxes, a decrease of 2.37% from the previous week, and the inventory was above the five - year average [40]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance sheet from 2017 to 2024E is presented, showing changes in production, consumption, production growth rate, consumption growth rate, and net import ratio over the years. For example, in 2024E, production was 55.1 million tons, consumption was 53.1 million tons, production growth rate was 3.94%, and consumption growth rate was - 1.15% [41].
大越期货PTA、MEG早报-20260114
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2026-01-14 03:02
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Report's Core View - For PTA, the futures market oscillated and closed lower, with the spot market's negotiation atmosphere weakening and the spot basis also weakening. In the short - term, the PTA spot price is expected to oscillate following the cost side, and the spot basis will operate weakly. Attention should be paid to oil price fluctuations and downstream device changes [5]. - For MEG, the arrival of foreign - owned vessels is concentrated this month, and the inventory tank capacity is tight. Affected by the strong crude oil and geopolitical concerns, the price center has moderately increased. However, the medium - term fundamentals are weak, and there is heavy pressure on the price upside. Attention should be paid to crude oil price trends and geopolitical changes [7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review - There is no specific content provided for the previous day's review in the report. 3.2. Daily Hints - **PTA**: Yesterday, the PTA futures market oscillated and closed lower. The spot market negotiation atmosphere weakened, and the spot basis weakened. The mainstream spot basis today is at 05 - 69. The net short position decreased. In the short - term, the PTA spot price is expected to oscillate following the cost side, and the spot basis will operate weakly [5]. - **MEG**: On Tuesday, the MEG price center weakened. The night - session opened higher and then declined. The spot basis moderately strengthened. The net short position increased. This month, the arrival of foreign - owned vessels is concentrated, and the inventory tank capacity is tight. The price center has moderately increased, but the medium - term fundamentals are weak [7][8]. 3.3. Today's Focus - There is no specific content provided for today's focus in the report. 3.4. Fundamental Data - **PTA**: The spot price is 5060, and the 05 - contract basis is - 80, with the futures price higher than the spot price. The PTA factory inventory is 3.6 days, a decrease of 0.01 days compared to the previous period. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average [5][6]. - **MEG**: The spot price is 3682, and the 05 - contract basis is - 133, with the futures price higher than the spot price. The inventory in East China is 66.9 tons, an increase of 0.55 tons compared to the previous period. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average [8]. 3.5. PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2024 to 2025, PTA production capacity, output, supply, and demand all showed certain fluctuations. For example, in January 2024, the production capacity was 8062, the output was 591, and the total supply was 591. The polyester production capacity was 7984, and the total PTA demand was 572 [13]. 3.6. Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2024 to 2025, the production, import, supply, and demand of ethylene glycol also showed fluctuations. For example, in January 2024, the production was 51, the total supply was 209, the polyester production capacity was 7984, and the total ethylene glycol demand was 220 [14]. 3.7. Price - On January 13, 2026, compared with January 12, the spot price of naphtha increased by 9 to 584.5 dollars/ton, the spot price of p - xylene decreased by 17 to 824 dollars/ton, the CCFEI price index of PTA decreased by 30 to 5060 yuan/ton, and the CCFEI price index of MEG decreased by 60 to 3662 yuan/ton [15]. 3.8. Inventory Analysis - The PTA factory inventory is 3.6 days, a decrease of 0.01 days compared to the previous period. The ethylene glycol inventory in East China is 66.9 tons, an increase of 0.55 tons compared to the previous period [5][8]. 3.9. Operating Rate - The operating rate of PTA, p - xylene, ethylene glycol, polyester, and chemical fiber textile enterprises in the polyester industry chain all showed certain trends from 2022 to 2026, with fluctuations influenced by various factors [54][56][58]. 3.10. Profit - On January 13, 2026, compared with January 12, the PTA processing fee increased by 100.771 to 540.25 yuan/ton, the naphtha MEG internal - market profit decreased by 615.478 to - 1755.34 yuan/ton, and the profit of other products also changed to varying degrees [15].
铜:铜价突破10万大关,关注后期供需博弈
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2026-01-14 02:31
重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前期回顾 2 宏观面 3 基本面 4 市场结构 5 展望 THEFT DAYUE FUTURES 交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】1091号 铜价突破10万大关 关注后期供需博弈 大越期货投资咨询部 : 祝森林 从业资格证号:F3023048 投资咨询证号: Z0013626 联系方式:0575-85226759 í 前期回顾 行情回顾 DAYUE FUTURES 二、宏观面 PMI 美国CPI: 低位有所回升,11月CPI 2.7% ZERE FRE DAYUE FUTURES 三、基本面 供需平衡: 国际铜业研究组织(ICSG)表示,2025全球铜市场紧平衡, 2026或短缺15万吨~30万吨? 供给矿山产量 供给港口库存 供给矿山新增产量 | | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 埃斯孔迪达 | 100 | -30 | - ...
大越期货甲醇周报-20260114
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2026-01-14 02:30
交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】1091号 甲醇周报 ( 大越期货投资咨询部 1.5-1.9 金泽彬 ) 从业资格证号:F3048432 投资咨询证号:Z0015557 联系方式:0575-85226759 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每周评论 2 基本面数据 3 检修状况 4 观点与策略 甲醇周评:后期国内甲醇市场整体呈偏弱态势,区域走势分化明确。内地方面,当前内地甲醇开工处于 绝对高位水平,而冬季为传统下游需求淡季,叠加下游用户原料库存普遍处于高位,部分下游存在压车现 象,尤其是港口部分烯烃装置有停车计划,需求还将进一步弱化,对业者情绪压制明显。根据历年经验来 看,春节前上游甲醇工厂继续维持低库存仍有出货需求,缺乏利好驱动,后期内地甲醇不排除回落可能。港 口方面,宏观面,资金和情绪撤退引发化工板块集体涨后回调。基本面来看,海外发货和库存下降逻辑仍 在,底部(前低)支撑仍在;但如果下游停车或降负陆续兑现,需求萎缩下 ...
大越期货碳酸锂期货周报-20260112
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2026-01-12 08:38
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints of the Report - The 05 contract showed an upward trend this week, with a weekly increase of 14.74%. It is expected that next week, the supply side production scheduling will continue to increase, the demand side will decrease, and the cost will remain low. The market may experience a bullish oscillatory adjustment. [4][7][78] Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Review and Outlook - **Market Trend**: The 05 contract rose this week, opening at 125,000 yuan/ton on Monday and closing at 143,420 yuan/ton on Friday, with a weekly increase of 14.74% [4]. - **Supply Side**: This week's lithium carbonate production was 22,535 tons, higher than the historical average. Lithium spodumene production was 13,959 tons, a 0.25% increase; lithium mica production was 2,956 tons, a 0.68% increase; salt lake production was 3,185 tons, a 1.27% increase; and recycling production was 2,435 tons, a 0.83% increase [4]. - **Demand Side**: In December 2025, the demand for lithium carbonate was 130,118 physical tons, a 2.49% decrease. The predicted demand for next month is 117,163 physical tons, a 9.95% increase. The export volume in December 2025 was 326 physical tons, a 57.04% decrease, and the predicted export volume for next month is 410 physical tons, a 25.77% increase [5]. - **Cost Side**: The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate is 139,168 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 3.67%. The production income is -1,087 yuan/ton, resulting in a loss. The cost of purchased lithium mica is 132,776 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.77%. The production income is 1,954 yuan/ton, resulting in a profit. The production cost on the recycling side is generally higher than that on the ore side, and the production income is negative, with low production scheduling enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost on the salt lake side is 32,231 yuan/ton, significantly lower than that on the ore side, with sufficient profit margins and strong production scheduling motivation [6]. - **Inventory Side**: The smelter inventory is 18,382 tons, a 4.05% increase; the downstream inventory is 36,540 tons, a 6.30% decrease; other inventories are 55,020 tons, a 3.93% increase; and the total inventory is 109,942 tons, a 0.31% increase [7]. 2. Fundamental Analysis - **Market - Lithium Carbonate Price - Basis**: Provided the price trends of lithium carbonate futures and spot prices, as well as the basis trends [11][12]. - **Supply - Lithium Ore**: Included the price trends of lithium ore, the production trends of lithium spodumene and lithium mica mines in China, the import trends of lithium concentrate, the self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore, and the inventory trends of port traders and unsold lithium ore [14][15]. - **Supply - Lithium Carbonate**: Covered the weekly production and capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate from different sources, the monthly production and import volume of lithium carbonate, and the monthly supply - demand balance table of lithium carbonate [20][21][27]. - **Supply - Lithium Hydroxide**: Included the weekly capacity utilization rate, monthly production, and monthly supply - demand balance table of lithium hydroxide [29][30][34]. - **Lithium Compound Cost and Profit**: Analyzed the cost and profit of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica concentrate, and various recycling materials, as well as the processing cost composition, import profit, and purification profit of lithium compounds [36][37][40]. - **Inventory**: Provided the trends of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide inventories, including warehouse receipts, weekly, and monthly inventories [45]. - **Demand - Lithium Battery**: Included the price trends, production, and shipment volume of lithium batteries, as well as the export volume and inventory of lithium batteries [48][49][50]. - **Demand - Ternary Precursor**: Covered the price, cost, profit, processing fee, capacity utilization rate, production, and supply - demand balance of ternary precursors [53][54][57]. - **Demand - Ternary Material**: Included the price, cost, profit, processing fee, production, import and export volume, and inventory of ternary materials [59][60][61]. - **Demand - Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium**: Covered the price, production cost, profit, capacity, production, export volume, and inventory of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium [63][64][66]. - **Demand - New Energy Vehicle**: Included the production, sales, export volume, sales penetration rate, retail - to - wholesale ratio, and inventory warning and inventory indexes of new energy vehicles [70][71][75]. 3. Technical Analysis - The main 05 contract showed an upward trend this week, and it is expected that the market may experience a bullish oscillatory adjustment next week [78].
大越期货豆粕早报-20260112
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2026-01-12 05:37
1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **For Soybean Meal (M2605)**: It is expected to oscillate between 2750 and 2810. The US soybean market has a short - term return to a volatile pattern due to China's soybean purchases and technical adjustments. The domestic soybean meal market is affected by the US soybean market and demand improvement. With the approaching of the year - end demand peak season and the premium of spot prices, the market may maintain a volatile pattern in the short term due to mixed news [9]. - **For Soybean (A2605)**: It is predicted to fluctuate between 4300 and 4400. The US soybean market awaits the implementation of the China - US trade agreement and weather conditions in South American production areas. The domestic soybean market is affected by state - reserve auctions, the China - US trade agreement, and the arrival of Brazilian soybeans. The spot price support and various factors lead to an expected short - term volatile trend [10]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Hints - Not provided in the report. 3.2 Recent News - The China - US tariff negotiation has reached a preliminary agreement, which is short - term positive for US soybeans. However, the quantity of China's soybean purchases and the US soybean weather are still uncertain. The US soybean market oscillates above the 1000 - point mark in the short term, waiting for further guidance on US soybean growth, harvest, and the follow - up of the China - US trade negotiation. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China will continue to decline in the first quarter. The soybean inventory of oil mills remains high in January. With relatively normal weather for soybean planting and growth in South America, soybean meal has returned to a range - bound pattern. - The reduction in domestic pig - farming profits leads to a low expectation of pig replenishment. The demand for soybean meal remains good in January, supporting the price expectation. The interaction between the impact of US soybeans and the recovery of soybean meal demand maintains the range - bound pattern. - The soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills remains high. There is still a possibility of weather speculation in the US soybean production areas, and the impact of the preliminary China - US trade negotiation agreement makes soybean meal maintain a short - term range - bound pattern, waiting for the clarification of US soybean production and the follow - up of the China - US trade negotiation [12]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Concerns 3.3.1 Soybean Meal - **Bullish Factors**: The preliminary China - US trade negotiation agreement is short - term positive for US soybeans; the soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills has no pressure; there are still uncertainties in the weather of South American soybean production areas. - **Bearish Factors**: The total arrival volume of imported soybeans in January remains high; under normal weather conditions, South American soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest. - **Main Logic**: The market focuses on the impact of the US soybean harvest weather and the follow - up of the preliminary China - US trade agreement [13]. 3.3.2 Soybean - **Bullish Factors**: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market; the expected recovery of domestic soybean demand supports the price expectation. - **Bearish Factors**: The bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans; the increase in the output of new - season domestic soybeans suppresses the price expectation of beans. - **Main Logic**: The market focuses on the impact of US soybean weather and the tariff game in China - US trade [14]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Transaction Data**: From December 30 to January 9, the成交均价 of soybean meal fluctuated between 3144 and 3188, and the trading volume varied from 8.1 to 48.69 million tons. The成交均价 of rapeseed meal was between 2520 and 2570, and the trading volume was mostly 0, with only 0.8 million tons on January 8. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated between 584 and 666 [15]. - **Soybean and Meal Futures and Spot Price Data**: From December 31 to January 9, the futures prices of soybean No.1 (A2605) fluctuated between 4241 and 4404, and the spot price in Jiamusi was between 4220 and 4360. The futures prices of soybean No.2 (A2605) were between 3459 and 3536, and the Brazilian - sourced spot price was between 3520 and 3550. The futures prices of soybean meal (M2605) were between 2749 and 2811, and the spot price in Jiangsu was between 3050 and 3110 [17]. - **Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipt Data**: From December 29 to January 9, the soybean No.1 warehouse receipts fluctuated between 18088 and 26046, the soybean No.2 warehouse receipts were mostly 400 after January 5, and the soybean meal warehouse receipts were between 24780 and 25480 [19]. - **Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets**: The global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets show the changes in harvest area, initial inventory, output, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio from 2015 to 2024 [31][32]. - **Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress in Different Countries**: In 2023/24, Argentina's soybean planting and harvest progress is presented. In 2024, the US soybean's planting, growth, and harvest progress are detailed, including sowing progress, emergence rate, flowering rate, pod - setting rate, defoliation rate, harvest rate, and good - quality rate. In 2024/25 and 2025/26, the planting and harvest progress of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans are provided [33][34][38]. - **USDA's Recent Monthly Supply - Demand Reports**: From May to December 2025, the planting area, yield per unit, output, ending inventory, new - bean exports, and crushing volume of US soybeans, as well as the output of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans, are reported [43]. 3.5 Position Data - **Soybean Meal**: The main short positions increased, and funds flowed out, indicating a bearish signal [9]. - **Soybean**: The main long positions decreased, and funds flowed out, showing a bullish signal [10]. 3.6 Other Related Data and Information - **Imported Soybean Arrival Volume**: The arrival volume of imported soybeans increased slightly in December, with an overall year - on - year growth [46]. - **Oil Mill Data**: The soybean processing volume of oil mills has declined from a high level. The soybean meal output in November increased year - on - year. The soybean inventory of oil mills has declined from a high level, while the soybean meal inventory remains high. The unexecuted contracts of oil mills have declined from a high level, and the stocking demand has a good expectation [47][49][51]. - **Brazilian Soybean Import Cost**: The import cost of Brazilian soybeans has declined following the oscillation of US soybeans, and the on - paper profit has fluctuated slightly [53]. - **Pig - Farming Data**: The pig inventory has been on the rise, the sow inventory is flat year - on - year and has a slight month - on - month decline. The pig price has fluctuated slightly recently, and the piglet price remains weak. The proportion of large pigs in China has increased, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs has fluctuated slightly. The domestic pig - farming profit has fluctuated slightly [55][57][59].
大越期货沥青期货早报-20260112
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2026-01-12 05:12
2026年1月12日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号:F3048432 投资咨询证:Z0015557 联系方式:0575-85226759 交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】1091号 沥青期货早报 1 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看,根据隆众,2025年12月份沥青总计划排产量为215.8万吨,环比降幅3.24%。本周国内石油沥青样 本产能利用率为27.5048%,环比减少1.86个百分点,全国样本企业出货21.03万吨,环比减少20.05%,样本企业 产量为45.9万吨,环比减少6.32%,样本企业装置检修量预估为99.6万吨,环比增加3.64%,本周炼厂有所减产, 降低供应压力。下周或将减少供给压力。 需求端来看,重交沥青开工率为25.4%,环比减少0.07个百分点,低于历史平均水平;建筑沥青开工率为6.6%, 环比持平,低于历史平均水平;改性沥青开工率为6.738%,环 ...