Report Overview - **Report Title**: Cotton Morning Report - October 22, 2025 - **Report Author**: Wang Mingwei from the Investment Consulting Department of Dayue Futures - **Report Date**: October 22, 2025 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View The report analyzes the cotton market from multiple aspects, including fundamentals, basis, inventory, and market trends. Overall, the market shows a mixed situation with both bullish and bearish factors. Currently, new cotton is about to be listed in large quantities, and the earlier bearish news has been gradually digested. The purchase price of seed cotton has slightly increased, and the futures main contract 01 continues to fluctuate and rebound [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review No content related to the previous day's review is provided in the report. 3.2 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: The expected national cotton output is 728 million tons, with Xinjiang reaching a new high. Multiple reports provide different data on global and domestic cotton production, consumption, and inventory. In September, textile and clothing exports were $24.42 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 1.4%. China's cotton imports in September were 1 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 18.7%, while cotton yarn imports were 1.3 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 18.18%. Overall, the fundamentals are bearish [4]. - **Basis**: The national average price of spot 3128b is 14,728, and the basis is 1,188 (for the 01 contract), indicating a premium over futures, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: The expected ending inventory in the 2025/26 season in October by the Chinese Ministry of Agriculture is 8.22 million tons, which is bearish [4]. - **Market**: The 20-day moving average is downward, and the K-line is above the 20-day moving average, showing a neutral situation [4]. - **Main Position**: The position is bearish, with the net short position increasing, and the main trend is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: New cotton is about to be listed in large quantities, and the earlier bearish news has been gradually digested. The purchase price of seed cotton has slightly increased, and the futures main contract 01 continues to fluctuate and rebound [4]. 3.3 Today's Focus No content related to today's focus is provided in the report. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **USDA Global Supply and Demand Forecast (September)**: The total global cotton production in 2025/26 is expected to be 25.622 million tons, and consumption is expected to be 25.872 million tons, with an ending inventory of 15.925 million tons [4][9]. - **ICAC Global Supply and Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 2025/26 season, global production is 2.59 million tons, consumption is 2.56 million tons, ending inventory is 1.71 million tons, and global trade volume is 970,000 tons. The price forecast (Cotlook A Index) is 57 - 94 cents per pound (median 73 cents) [11]. - **Ministry of Agriculture's 2025/26 Season Data (October)**: Production is 6.36 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.4 million tons, and ending inventory is 8.22 million tons [4][13]. 3.5 Position Data No content related to position data is provided in the report. 4. Bullish and Bearish Factors 4.1 Bullish Factors - The purchase price of seed cotton has slightly increased, and commercial inventory is lower year-on-year [5]. 4.2 Bearish Factors - Trade negotiations are ongoing, and the current export tariffs to the US are relatively high. Overall, foreign trade orders have decreased, and inventory has increased. New cotton is about to be listed in large quantities, and consumption during the "Golden September" period was weak [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is neutral [4][9] Core Viewpoints - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, the spot is strong, domestic inventories are decreasing, and tire operating rates are at a high level. The market has support below, and it is advisable to buy on dips [4] Summary by Directory Daily Tips - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, the spot is strong, domestic inventories are starting to decrease, and tire operating rates are at a high level. The market has support below, and it is advisable to buy on dips [4] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: Supply is starting to increase [4] - **Spot**: Spot is strong, and the 23-year full latex (non-deliverable) spot price remained flat on October 21st [4][8] - **Inventory**: Exchange inventories are continuously decreasing, and Qingdao region inventories are also decreasing. The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory decreased week-on-week and year-on-year, while the Qingdao region inventory decreased week-on-week but increased year-on-year [4][14][17] - **Tire Operating Rate**: Tire operating rates are at a high level [4] - **Automobile Production and Sales**: Automobile production and sales are seasonally rising [23][26] - **Tire Production and Exports**: Tire production reached a new high in the same period, and tire industry exports also reached a new high in the same period [29][32] Basis - The spot price is 14,300, and the basis is -850, which is bearish. The basis weakened on October 21st [4][35] Long and Short Factors - **Bullish Factors**: High downstream consumption, resilient spot prices, and domestic anti-involution [6] - **Bearish Factors**: Increasing supply, bearish domestic economic indicators, and trade frictions [6]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-10-22燃料油早报 6、预期：隔夜原油企稳回升，地缘担忧重升，不过燃油市场短期缺乏更多刺激，供应仍相对充裕，预计价格低 位平稳运行。FU2601：2620-2670区间运行，LU2512：3050-3100区间运行 1、基本面：亚洲高硫燃料油市场预计将维持区间波动，未受制裁资源供应相对紧张，同时温吞的船燃需求为市 场基本面提供一定支撑。不过市场消息人士称，近期供应可能对市场构成压力；亚洲低硫燃料油市场结构表现 疲软，主要由于近期供应充足，而新加坡的船燃贸易商预计船东的采购意愿仅属温和；中性 2、基差：新加坡高硫燃料油369.75美元/吨，基差为11元/吨，新加坡低硫燃料油为430.6美元/吨，基差为13元/ 吨，现货平水期货；中性 3、库存：新加坡燃料油10月15日当周库存为2235.9万桶，增加174万桶；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方，20日线偏下；偏空 5、主力持仓：高硫主力持仓空单，空增，偏空；低硫主力持仓多单，多增，偏多 近期多空分析 利多： 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 白糖早报——2025年10月22日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 白糖： 1、基本面：Czarnikow:上调25/26年度全球食糖过剩预期至740万吨，比8月份预估高出120万吨。 StoneX:预计25/26年度全球糖市供应过剩277万吨。ISO:预计25/26年度全球食糖供应缺口为23.1 万吨，比之前预计缺口大幅减少。2025年8月底，24/25年度本期制糖全国累计产糖1116.21万吨； 全国累计销糖1000万吨；销糖率89.6%。2025年9月中国进口食糖55万吨，同比增加15万吨；进口 糖浆及预混粉等三项合计15.14万吨，同比减少13.51万吨。偏空。 2、基差：柳 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2025-10-22 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 尿素概述： • 1. 基本面：当前日产及开工率略有回落仍处于偏高位置，综合库存显著累积。需求端，工业 及农业需求均偏弱，农需受天气影响需求偏弱，复合肥、三聚氰胺开工率回落。出口内外价差较 大但对国内价格支撑有限。国内尿素整体供过于求仍明显。交割品现货1550（+0），基本面整体 偏空； • 2. 基差： UR2601合约基差-50，升贴水比例-3.2%，偏空； • 3. 库存：UR综合库存206.1万吨（+20.3），偏空； • 4. 盘面： UR主力合约20日均线向下，收盘价位于20日线下，偏空； • 5. 主力持仓：UR主力持仓净空，增空，偏空； • 6. 预期：尿素主力合约盘面震荡偏弱，国际尿素价格偏强但 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For PTA, the spot basis is expected to have limited downside as new device production nears, approaching risk - free arbitrage, and with some mainstream PTA suppliers reducing device loads. The absolute price is expected to fluctuate with the cost side in the short term, and attention should be paid to downstream production and sales and device changes [5]. - For MEG, although there is some replenishment demand at low prices, the fundamental pattern remains weak with obvious oversupply in the long - term. The price is expected to run weakly in the short term, and attention should be paid to subsequent polyester loads and device changes [7]. - Short - term commodity markets are greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and for a market rebound, attention should be paid to the upper resistance level [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 PTA Daily View - **Fundamentals**: On the previous day, PTA futures fluctuated and consolidated. The spot market negotiation atmosphere was average, and the spot basis was weak. Different delivery periods had different transaction price ranges and basis levels. Today's mainstream spot basis is 01 - 88 [5]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 4325, the 01 - contract basis is - 89, and the market is at a premium, showing a neutral situation [6]. - **Inventory**: PTA factory inventory is 4.08 days, a decrease of 0.14 days compared to the previous period, showing a bullish situation [6]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, showing a bearish situation [6]. - **Main Position**: The net short position is decreasing, showing a bearish situation [6]. - **Expectation**: With new device production imminent, the spot basis will continue to weaken, but the downside is limited. The absolute price will follow the cost side in the short term [5]. 3.2 MEG Daily View - **Fundamentals**: On Tuesday, the ethylene glycol price was adjusted at a low level. The night - session was weak, and low - level buying increased. The morning session fluctuated upward, and the afternoon session weakened slightly. The foreign market price also fluctuated at a low level [7]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 4090, the 01 - contract basis is 86, and the market is at a discount, showing a neutral situation [7]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory in the East China region is 49.5 tons, an increase of 4.99 tons compared to the previous period, showing a bearish situation [7]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, showing a bearish situation [7]. - **Main Position**: The main net short position is decreasing, showing a bearish situation [7]. - **Expectation**: Although there is some buying support at low prices, the fundamental pattern is weak, and the price is expected to run weakly in the short term [7]. 3.3 Influencing Factors Summary - **Positive Factors**: Before the holiday, due to increased demand and rising oil prices, the polyester market sales were booming. The inventory of POY and FDY decreased rapidly, and prices rebounded by 100 - 150 yuan. During the holiday, polyester prices were stable [9]. - **Negative Factors**: The 360 - million - ton load of Yisheng New Materials was fully increased, and the loads of Sanfangxiang's 3.2 - million - ton and Weilian Chemical's 2.5 - million - ton devices were also increased [10]. 3.4 Current Main Logic and Risk Points - Short - term commodity markets are greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and for a market rebound, attention should be paid to the upper resistance level [11]. 3.5 PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Presents PTA's production capacity, load, output, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, export, total demand, inventory, and other data from January 2024 to December 2025 [12]. 3.6 Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Displays ethylene glycol's production, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, export, total demand, port inventory, and other data from January 2024 to December 2025 [13].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2025-10-22 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 纯碱： 1、基本面：碱厂检修量不及预期，远兴二期年前预期投产，整体供给处于高位；下游浮法玻璃供 给扰动较多，光伏日熔量延续下滑趋势，纯碱厂库处于历史同期高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1155元/吨，SA2601收盘价为1210元/吨，基差为-55元，期货升 水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存170.05万吨，较前一周增加2.45%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面疲弱，短期预计震荡偏弱运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、浮法玻璃日熔量企稳。 利空： 主要逻辑和风险点 1、主 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall fundamentals of LLDPE and PP are bearish, with the plastics and PP main contracts expected to fluctuate weakly today. The long - term "supply increase and demand decrease" pattern of crude oil remains unchanged, and the cost - side support for polyolefins is limited. The outcome of Sino - US trade negotiations is uncertain, and oil prices are continuously falling [4][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In September, the official PMI was 49.8, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. The manufacturing prosperity improved but was still in the contraction range. The long - term "supply increase and demand decrease" pattern of crude oil remained unchanged, and the cost - side support for polyolefins was limited. On the 18th, Sino - US economic and trade leaders held a video call, and there was still uncertainty in Sino - US trade negotiations, causing oil prices to fall. On the supply - demand side, the agricultural film operation was stable with a slight increase in the start - up rate, and the demand for other films was good as Double 11 approached. The current LLDPE delivery product spot price was 6920 (+0), and the overall fundamentals were bearish [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract was 41, and the premium - discount ratio was 0.6%, which was bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory was 58.0 tons (+3.7), which was neutral [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract was downward, and the closing price was below the 20 - day line, which was bearish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net long position of the LLDPE main contract decreased, which was bullish [4]. - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract was expected to fluctuate weakly. With the decline in crude oil prices, stable operation of the agricultural film industry, and a moderately high industrial inventory, the PE was expected to fluctuate weakly today [4]. - **Positive Factors**: The demand in the peak season increased month - on - month [5]. - **Negative Factors**: The demand was weak year - on - year, there were many new production projects in the fourth quarter, and there were Sino - US trade risks [5]. - **Main Logic**: Cost and demand were driven by domestic macro - policies [5]. PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: In September, the official PMI was 49.8, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. The manufacturing prosperity improved but was still in the contraction range. The long - term "supply increase and demand decrease" pattern of crude oil remained unchanged, and the cost - side support for polyolefins was limited. On the 18th, Sino - US economic and trade leaders held a video call, and there was still uncertainty in Sino - US trade negotiations, causing oil prices to fall. On the supply - demand side, plastic weaving was supported by the peak season and performed well, while the demand for pipes increased but was still weak year - on - year. The current PP delivery product spot price was 6550 (-0), and the overall fundamentals were bearish [6]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract was - 15, and the premium - discount ratio was - 0.2%, which was neutral [6]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory was 67.9 tons (-0.3), which was bearish [6]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract was downward, and the closing price was below the 20 - day line, which was bearish [6]. - **Main Position**: The net short position of the PP main contract decreased, which was bearish [6]. - **Expectation**: The PP main contract was expected to fluctuate weakly. With the decline in crude oil prices, the launch of new production capacity, the maintenance of the average downstream start - up rate, and a moderately high industrial inventory, the PP was expected to fluctuate weakly today [6]. - **Positive Factors**: The demand in the peak season increased month - on - month [7]. - **Negative Factors**: The demand was weak year - on - year, there were many new production projects in the fourth quarter, and there were Sino - US trade risks [7]. - **Main Logic**: Cost and demand were driven by domestic macro - policies [7]. Spot and Futures Market Data - **LLDPE**: The spot delivery product price was 6920 (unchanged), the 01 - contract price was 6879 (+5), the basis was 41 (-5), the comprehensive PE factory inventory was 58.0 tons, and the social PE inventory was 54.6 tons [8]. - **PP**: The spot delivery product price was 6550 (unchanged), the 01 - contract price was 6565 (+14), the basis was - 15 (-14), the comprehensive PP factory inventory was 67.9 tons, and the social PP inventory was 34.9 tons [8]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption generally showed an upward trend, with the production capacity growth rate reaching 20.5% in 2025E [12]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption generally increased, with the production capacity growth rate expected to be 11.0% in 2025E [14].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 玻璃早报 2025-10-22 每日观点 玻璃： 1、基本面：近期沙河地区"煤改气"等反内卷、环保政策利好情绪有所升温，供应端扰动因素较 多；下游深加工订单整体偏弱，不及往年同期，地产终端需求疲弱；偏空 2、基差：浮法玻璃河北沙河大板现货1072元/吨，FG2601收盘价为1087元/吨，基差为-15元，期 货升水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国浮法玻璃企业库存6427.6万重量箱，较前一周增加2.31%，库存在5年均值上方运行； 偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：玻璃基本面偏弱，短期预计震荡偏弱运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、"反内卷"政策影响下，浮法玻璃行业存产能出清 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 原油2512： 1.基本面：俄罗斯石油供应方面仍存在不确定性，美国总统特朗普周日再次警告称，除非印度停止购 买俄罗斯石油，否则华盛顿将对印度维持"大规模"关税；俄罗斯外交部声明称，"双方就落实2025 年10月16日俄总统普京与美总统特朗普通话中达成的谅解的具体实施步骤进行了建设性讨论。"；中 性 2.基差：10月17日，阿曼原油现货价为62.19美元/桶，卡塔尔海洋原油现货价为62.11美元/桶，基差 34.77元/桶，现货升水期货；偏多 3.库存：美国截至10月10日当周API原油库存增加736万桶，预期增加23.3万桶；美国至10月10日当周 EIA库存增加352.4万桶，预期增加28.8万桶；库欣地区库存至10月10日当周减少70.3万桶，前值减少 76.3万桶；截止至10月17日，上海原油期货库存为521.1万桶，不变；偏空 4.盘面：20日均线偏下，价格在均线下方；偏空 2025-10-21原油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048 ...