交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2026年1月16日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 PTA 每日观点 PTA： 1、基本面：昨日PTA期货震荡下跌，现货市场商谈氛围一般，现货基差走强。1月货在05贴水60~68附近商谈成交，价格商谈区 间在4975~5110。2月上在05贴水60成交，2月下在05贴水50有成交。3下在05贴水25成交。今日主流现货基差在05-64。中性 6、预期：近期PTA自身装置变动不多，供需格局暂时维持，上周下游聚酯减产消息集中发酵后，贸易商持货意愿持续减弱，现 货基差进一步走低，预计短期内PTA现货价格跟随成本端震荡，现货基差偏弱运行。关注油价波动及下游装置变动。 MEG： 5、主力持仓：净空 空增 偏空 6 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash remain weak, with high supply, declining terminal demand, and high inventory. The short - term outlook is expected to be mainly in a volatile and downward trend [2][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Alkali plants have high production, with overall supply expected to be abundant. Downstream float glass and photovoltaic daily melting volumes are on a downward trend, and soda ash plant inventories are at a historically high level, indicating a bearish outlook [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1140 yuan/ton, and the closing price of SA2605 is 1193 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 53 yuan, showing that the futures price is at a premium to the spot price, which is bearish [2]. - **Inventory**: The national soda ash plant inventory is 157.5 tons, an increase of 0.15% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average, which is bearish [2][34]. - **Disk**: The price is running below the 20 - day line, while the 20 - day line is upward, indicating a neutral situation [2]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position is increasing, which is bearish [2]. - **Expectation**: The fundamentals of soda ash remain weak, and it is expected to be mainly in a volatile and downward trend in the short term [2]. 3.2 Influencing Factors - **Positive Factors**: Equipment problems have led to reduced maintenance in enterprises, and the recovery of soda ash supply is slow [3]. - **Negative Factors**: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans in 2025. The industry's production is at a historically high level. The downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy soda ash has reduced production, leading to a weakening demand for soda ash [4]. 3.3 Main Logic - The supply of soda ash is at a high level, the terminal demand is declining, the inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [5]. 3.4 Soda Ash Futures Market | | Main Contract Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Heavy Soda Ash: Shahe Low - end Price (yuan/ton) | Main Basis (yuan/ton) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous Value | 1222 | 1160 | - 62 | | Current Value | 1193 | 1140 | - 53 | | Change Rate | - 2.37% | - 1.72% | - 14.52% | [6] 3.5 Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1140 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. 3.6 Soda Ash Production - **Production Profit**: The profit of heavy soda ash using the North China ammonia - soda process is - 57.85 yuan/ton, and that of the East China co - production process is - 40 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash is at a historical low [15]. - **Operating Rate and Production**: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 81.65%. The weekly production of soda ash is 75.36 tons, of which heavy soda ash is 40.45 tons, and the production is at a historical high [18][21]. - **Capacity Changes**: In 2023, the total new production capacity was 640 tons; in 2024, it was 180 tons; and the planned new production capacity in 2025 is 750 tons, with an actual production of 100 tons [22]. 3.7 Fundamental Analysis - Demand - **Production and Sales Rate**: The weekly production and sales rate of soda ash is 108.54% [25]. - **Downstream Demand**: - **Float Glass**: The daily melting volume of national float glass is 15.01 tons, and the operating rate is 71.96% [28]. - **Photovoltaic Glass**: No detailed data provided in the given content. 3.8 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory The national soda ash plant inventory is 157.5 tons, an increase of 0.15% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [34]. 3.9 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective capacity, production, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [35].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沥青期货早报 2026年1月14日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，根据隆众，2025年12月份沥青总计划排产量为215.8万吨，环比降幅3.24%。本周国内石油沥青样 本产能利用率为27.5048%，环比减少1.86个百分点，全国样本企业出货21.03万吨，环比减少20.05%,样本企业 产量为45.9万吨，环比减少6.32%,样本企业装置检修量预估为99.6万吨，环比增加3.64%,本周炼厂有所减产， 降低供应压力。下周或将减少供给压力。 需求端来看，重交沥青开工率为25.4%，环比减少0.07个百分点，低于历史平均水平；建筑沥青开工率为6.6%， 环比持平，低于历史平均水平；改性沥青开工率为6.738%，环 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The soybean meal M2605 is expected to oscillate in the range of 2700 - 2760. The market is influenced by the decline of US soybeans, the approaching harvest of Brazilian soybeans, and the interaction between demand improvement and US soybean trends. The short - term outlook is neutral, with a mix of positive and negative factors [9]. - The soybean A2605 is projected to fluctuate between 4280 - 4380. The market is affected by the oscillation of US soybeans, the auction of state - reserved imported soybeans, and the interaction of Sino - US trade agreements and Brazilian soybean imports. The short - term outlook is also neutral [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints No relevant content provided. 2. Recent News - The preliminary agreement on Sino - US tariff negotiations is a short - term positive for US soybeans, but the quantity of Chinese purchases and US soybean weather remain uncertain. The US soybean market is oscillating above the 1000 - point mark, awaiting further guidance [13]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China will continue to decline in Q1. The soybean inventory of oil mills remains high in January. With normal weather in South American soybean - growing areas, soybean meal has returned to range - bound trading [13]. - Reduced profits in China's pig - farming industry have led to low expectations for pig restocking. However, the demand for soybean meal remains strong in January, supporting price expectations. The interaction between the influence of US soybeans and the recovery of soybean meal demand maintains the range - bound pattern [13]. - The high inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills, the potential for weather speculation in US soybean - growing areas, and the impact of the preliminary Sino - US trade agreement keep soybean meal in a short - term range - bound state, waiting for clear US soybean production and further Sino - US trade negotiation results [13]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: The preliminary Sino - US trade agreement is short - term positive for US soybeans; the inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills is not under pressure; there are still uncertainties in the weather of South American soybean - growing areas [14]. - Bearish factors: The total arrival volume of imported soybeans in China remains high in January; with normal weather, South American soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest [14]. - Current main logic: The market focuses on the impact of US soybean harvest weather and the follow - up of the preliminary Sino - US trade agreement [14]. Soybeans - Bullish factors: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market; the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports price expectations [15]. - Bearish factors: The bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and China's increased purchases of Brazilian soybeans; the increase in the output of new - season domestic soybeans suppresses price expectations [15]. - Current main logic: The market focuses on the impact of US soybean weather and the Sino - US trade tariff game [15]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Transaction Data**: From January 5th to 13th, the average transaction price of soybean meal ranged from 3138 to 3188 yuan/ton, and the transaction volume varied from 8.1 to 116.13 tons. The average transaction price of rapeseed meal was between 2480 and 2570 yuan/ton, and the transaction volume was mostly 0, with a small amount on January 8th and 12th. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal gradually increased [16]. - **Soybean and Meal Futures and Spot Prices**: From January 6th to 13th, the prices of soybean futures (both No. 1 and No. 2), soybean meal futures (both near - term and far - term), and soybean and soybean meal spot prices all fluctuated [18]. - **Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipt Statistics**: From December 31st to January 13th, the warehouse receipts of soybean No. 1, No. 2, and soybean meal changed. The warehouse receipts of soybean No. 1 decreased overall, while the warehouse receipts of soybean No. 2 remained at 400, and the warehouse receipts of soybean meal had some small - scale fluctuations [20]. - **Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets**: The global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets from 2015 to 2024 show changes in harvest area, output, consumption, and inventory. Generally, the total supply and demand of soybeans have been increasing, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio has fluctuated [32][33]. - **Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress**: The planting and harvest progress of soybeans in Argentina, the US, and Brazil from 2023 to 2026 shows that the progress in different years and regions varies, affected by factors such as weather and planting plans [34][35][36][37][38][39][40][41][42][43]. - **USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Reports**: The USDA's monthly supply - demand reports from June 2025 to January 2026 show changes in US soybean planting area, yield per unit, output, end - of - period inventory, new - bean exports, and crushing volume, as well as the output of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans [44]. - **Imported Soybean Arrival Volume**: The arrival volume of imported soybeans from 2020 to 2025 shows monthly fluctuations, with an overall upward trend in some years. In December 2025, the arrival volume increased slightly compared to the previous period and was generally higher year - on - year [47]. 5. Position Data No relevant content provided.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply decreased last week, demand increased, and the market is affected by factors such as cost support, inventory levels, and downstream production trends. The 2605 contract is expected to oscillate between 8510 - 8760 [6]. - For polysilicon, the supply production is decreasing, demand is showing signs of recovery but may be weak in the future, and cost support is stabilizing. The 2605 contract is expected to oscillate between 47635 - 50375 [8][9][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: Last week's industrial silicon supply was 85,000 tons, a 2.29% decrease from the previous week [6]. - **Demand**: Last week's industrial silicon demand was 80,000 tons, a 9.59% increase from the previous week, with demand rising [6]. - **Inventory**: The polysilicon inventory was 302,000 tons, at a high level; the silicone inventory was 53,200 tons, at a low level; the aluminum alloy ingot inventory was 68,200 tons, at a high level; the social inventory was 552,000 tons, a 0.89% decrease; the sample enterprise inventory was 203,300 tons, a 0.44% increase; the main port inventory was 137,000 tons, a 2.14% decrease [6]. - **Cost**: The production cost of sample oxygen - passing 553 in Xinjiang was 9794.9 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous week, and the cost support increased during the dry season [6]. - **Basis**: On January 13th, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing in East China was 9200 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 565 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - **Disk**: MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed below MA20 [6]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, with short positions increasing [6]. - **Expectation**: The supply production schedule is decreasing, inventory remains high, demand recovery is at a low level, cost support increases, and the industrial silicon 2605 contract oscillates between 8510 - 8760 [6]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - **Supply**: Last week's polysilicon production was 23,800 tons, a 0.83% decrease from the previous week. The production schedule for January is expected to be 107,800 tons, a 6.66% decrease compared to the previous month [8]. - **Demand**: Last week's silicon wafer production was 10.52GW, a 3.33% increase from the previous week; the inventory was 262,300 tons, a 13.10% increase. Currently, silicon wafer production is at a loss. The production schedule for January is 45.2GW, a 2.96% increase compared to the previous month. In December, the battery cell production was 46.76GW, a 15.91% decrease; last week, the external sales factory inventory of battery cells was 9.04GW, a 1.34% increase. Currently, battery cell production is at a loss. The production schedule for January is 39.36GW, a 15.82% decrease. In December, the component production was 38.7GW, a 17.48% decrease; the expected component production for January is 32.47GW, a 16.09% decrease. The domestic monthly inventory is 24.76GW, a 51.73% decrease; the European monthly inventory is 31.3GW, a 5.43% decrease. Currently, component production is profitable [9]. - **Cost**: The average cost of polysilicon N - type material in the industry is 38,600 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 15,650 yuan/ton [9]. - **Basis**: On January 13th, the price of N - type dense material was 54,250 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 5745 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [11]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory was 302,000 tons, a 1.30% decrease, at a high level compared to the same period in history [11]. - **Disk**: MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed below MA20 [11]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, with short positions decreasing [11]. - **Expectation**: The supply production schedule continues to decrease, demand from silicon wafer production continues to increase, battery cell production continues to decrease, component production continues to decrease. Overall demand shows signs of recovery but may be weak in the future. Cost support stabilizes, and the polysilicon 2605 contract oscillates between 47635 - 50375 [10]. 3.2 Market Overview 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon - **Futures Closing Price**: The prices of most contracts decreased, with the 02 contract down 1.38%, the 03 contract down 1.49%, etc. [17]. - **Basis**: The basis of most contracts increased, with the 08 contract up 119.27% [17]. - **Warehouse Receipt**: The number of registered warehouse receipts was 11,128, a 2.20% increase [17]. - **Organosilicon**: The DMC production decreased by 1.86%, the capacity utilization rate remained unchanged at 64.23%, and the profit was 2100 yuan/ton [17]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The monthly production of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased by 0.46%, the monthly production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 6.16%, and the weekly social inventory of aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 2.85% [17]. - **Spot Price**: The prices of various types of industrial silicon in East China remained unchanged [17]. - **Inventory**: The weekly social inventory decreased by 0.90%, the sample enterprise inventory increased by 0.44%, and the main port inventory decreased by 2.14% [17]. - **Production/Utilization Rate**: The weekly sample enterprise production decreased by 5.28%, the production in Sichuan decreased by 100.00%, and the production in Xinjiang decreased by 5.09% [17]. - **Cost/Profit**: The cost of 553 in Yunnan increased by 12.18%, and the cost of oxygen - passing 553 in Xinjiang increased by 13.68% [17]. 3.2.2 Polysilicon - **Silicon Wafer**: The prices of various silicon wafers remained mostly unchanged, the weekly production increased by 5.74%, and the weekly inventory decreased by 22.06% [19]. - **Battery Cell**: The prices of various battery cells remained mostly unchanged, the monthly production decreased by 15.91%, the weekly external sales factory inventory increased by 1.35%, and the export increased by 24.25% [19]. - **Component**: The prices of various components remained mostly unchanged, the monthly production decreased by 17.48%, the domestic inventory decreased by 51.73%, the European inventory decreased by 5.44%, and the export increased by 5.54% [19]. - **Polysilicon**: The price of N - type polysilicon decreased by 0.45%, the average cost of the polysilicon industry remained unchanged, the monthly supply decreased by 14.48%, the monthly consumption decreased by 10.37%, and the monthly balance changed by - 39.38% [19]. 3.3 Other Aspects - **Price - Basis and Delivery Product Spread Trends**: The report presents the historical trends of the basis of industrial silicon main contracts and the price spread between 421 and 553 [21][22]. - **Polysilicon Disk Price Trends**: The report shows the historical trends of polysilicon main contract prices, trading volumes, and basis [24][25]. - **Industrial Silicon Inventory**: The report shows the historical trends of industrial silicon inventory in warehouses and ports, sample enterprise inventory, and registered warehouse receipt volume [27][28][29]. - **Industrial Silicon Production and Capacity Utilization Trends**: The report shows the historical trends of industrial silicon weekly production, monthly production by specification, and sample enterprise opening rates [31][32][33]. - **Industrial Silicon Cost - Sample Region Trends**: The report shows the historical cost trends of 421/553 in Sichuan, Xinjiang, and Yunnan [38][39][40]. - **Industrial Silicon Supply - Demand Balance Sheets**: The report provides weekly and monthly supply - demand balance sheets for industrial silicon, including production, consumption, import, and export [42][43][46]. - **Industrial Silicon Downstream - Organosilicon**: The report shows the price, production, import - export, and inventory trends of DMC and its downstream products [48][49][50][51][53][54][55]. - **Industrial Silicon Downstream - Aluminum Alloy**: The report shows the price, supply, inventory, production, and demand trends of aluminum alloy [56][57][59][60][61]. - **Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polysilicon**: The report shows the cost, price, inventory, production, demand, and supply - demand balance trends of polysilicon and its downstream products such as silicon wafers, battery cells, and components, as well as the trends of photovoltaic accessories, component cost - profit, and photovoltaic grid - connected power generation [66][67][69][70][72][73][75][76][78][79][81][82][84][85][87][88][89][90].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate is shifting towards supply - led. The lithium carbonate 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 158,940 - 166,660. In the supply side, there are expectations of production and import volume decreases in the next month, while on the demand side, the demand is expected to strengthen and inventory may be reduced. The main logic is the emotional shock caused by news under the tight supply - demand balance [9][13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily View - **Supply and Demand Situation**: Last week, lithium carbonate production was 22,535 tons, a 0.51% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. The inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises decreased by 3.80% week - on - week to 96,094 tons, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises decreased by 0.80% week - on - week to 18,432 tons [8]. - **Expectations**: In December 2025, lithium carbonate production was 99,200 physical tons, and it is predicted to be 97,970 physical tons next month, a 1.23% decrease. The import volume in December 2025 was 26,000 physical tons, and it is predicted to be 22,500 physical tons next month, a 13.46% decrease. Demand is expected to strengthen next month, and inventory may be reduced. The cost of 6% concentrate CIF increased day - on - day, lower than the historical average [9]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate was 145,425 yuan/ton, unchanged day - on - day, with a production profit of 5,049 yuan/ton. The cost of purchased lithium mica was 149,161 yuan/ton, a 5.04% day - on - day increase, with a production profit of 4,680 yuan/ton. The cost of the recycling end is close to that of the ore end, with average production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end is 32,231 yuan/ton, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [10]. - **Other Factors**: Positive factors include the production cut plan of lithium mica manufacturers and the decrease in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile. Negative factors are the continuous high supply at the ore/salt lake end with limited decline [11][12]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Lithium Carbonate Market Data**: The closing price of the 05 contract of lithium carbonate futures increased, and the basis was negative, indicating that the spot price was at a discount to the futures price. The prices of upstream lithium ore and related raw materials generally increased, and the registered warehouse receipts increased by 3.57% [16]. - **Supply - Side Data**: The weekly operating rate of lithium carbonate increased to 87.14%. The monthly production of lithium carbonate was 99,200 tons, a 4.04% increase. The monthly import volume of lithium carbonate was 22,055.19 tons, a 7.64% decrease, and the import volume from Chile decreased by 26.84% [18]. - **Demand - Side Data**: The monthly production of lithium iron phosphate decreased by 1.78%, and the monthly production of lithium iron phosphate decreased by 2.17%. The monthly production of ternary materials decreased, and the weekly inventory decreased by 0.80%. The monthly installed capacity of power batteries increased by 11.18% [18]. - **New Energy Vehicle Data**: The production of new energy vehicles was 1,880,000, a 6.09% increase, the sales volume was 1.823 million, a 6.30% increase, and the export volume was 30,000, a 17.19% increase. The penetration rate of new energy vehicles increased to 53.16% [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of PVC are generally bearish. Supply pressure has increased this week, and production is expected to rise next week. Overall inventory is at a high level, and current demand may remain weak. PVC2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4834 - 4942. The main logic is the strong overall supply pressure and the sluggish recovery of domestic demand [8]. - Bullish factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits. Bearish factors are the rebound in overall supply pressure, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and external demand [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: In December 2025, PVC production was 2.137356 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.79%. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 79.67%, a month - on - month increase of 0.01 percentage points. Calcium carbide - based enterprise production was 343,410 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.56%, while ethylene - based enterprise production was 144,360 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.92%. Next week, maintenance is expected to decrease, and production is expected to increase slightly [8]. - **Demand**: The overall downstream operating rate was 44.02%, a month - on - month increase of 0.08 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The downstream profile operating rate was 30.22%, a month - on - month increase of 0.439 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The downstream pipe operating rate was 35.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.20 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The downstream film operating rate was 66.43%, unchanged from the previous month, higher than the historical average. The downstream paste resin operating rate was 81.53%, a month - on - month increase of 0.78 percentage points, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to decline, and the domestic PVC export price is not competitive. Current demand may remain weak [8]. - **Cost**: The profit of calcium carbide method was - 633.67 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease in losses of 11.00%, lower than the historical average. The profit of ethylene method was - 192.09 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease in losses of 31.00%, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2109.91 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month profit increase of 0.80%, lower than the historical average. Production scheduling may be under pressure [8]. - **Basis**: On January 13, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4750 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was - 138 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. Bearish [8]. - **Inventory**: Factory inventory was 328,194 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.13%. Calcium carbide - based factory inventory was 244,844 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.06%. Ethylene - based factory inventory was 83,350 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.84%. Social inventory was 546,346 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.02%. The inventory days of production enterprises were 5.4 days, a month - on - month increase of 5.46%. Bearish [8]. - **Market**: MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed above MA20. Bullish [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions increased. Bearish [8]. 3.2 PVC Market Overview - The report provides detailed data on yesterday's PVC market, including prices, spreads, downstream operating rates, profits, costs, capacity utilization rates, and inventory levels of different regions and production methods [14][15]. 3.3 PVC Futures Market - **Basis Trend**: The report presents the historical basis trend of PVC futures, showing the relationship between the spot price and the futures price over time [17][18]. - **Price and Volume**: It shows the price and trading volume trends of PVC futures, as well as the changes in the positions of the top 5 and 20 seats [20][21]. - **Spread Analysis**: The report analyzes the price spreads of the main contracts of PVC futures, including the 1 - 9 and 5 - 9 spreads in 2024 and 2025 [23][24]. 3.4 PVC Fundamentals - **Calcium Carbide Method - Related**: It includes the price, cost, profit, operating rate, and inventory of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, caustic soda, and the cost - profit analysis of the chlor - alkali industry and the double - ton price difference [26][31][34][37][39]. - **Supply Trends**: It shows the capacity utilization rates of calcium carbide - based and ethylene - based PVC production, production, maintenance volume, and daily production [40][41][43]. - **Demand Trends**: It includes the sales volume of PVC traders, pre - sales volume, production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, downstream average operating rate, and the operating rates of different downstream products such as profiles, pipes, films, and paste resin. It also analyzes the real - estate investment, construction area, new construction area, sales area, and completion area, as well as macro - economic indicators such as social financing scale increment, M2 increment, local government new special bonds, and infrastructure investment year - on - year [45][46][54]. - **Inventory**: It shows the exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide - based factory inventory, ethylene - based factory inventory, and social inventory of PVC [57][58]. - **Ethylene Method**: It includes the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, and price spreads such as the FOB spread of ethylene - based PVC and the import spread of vinyl chloride [59][60]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The report provides a monthly supply - demand balance sheet of PVC from November 2024 to December 2025, including export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, import, and the supply - demand difference [62][63].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed meal RM2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2260 - 2320. It is currently in a short - term weak oscillation, affected by the soybean meal trend, technical consolidation, and the outcome of the Canadian Prime Minister's visit to China and Sino - Canadian trade relations. The spot demand is in the off - season, and low inventory supports the market. Overall, it will maintain a short - term oscillation pattern [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - Rapeseed meal RM2605 is expected to oscillate between 2260 and 2320. The market is affected by soybean meal, technical factors, and Sino - Canadian trade relations. The spot demand is in the off - season, and low inventory supports the price, maintaining a short - term oscillation [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture is in the off - season after the long holiday, with short - term supply tightening and decreasing demand suppressing the market. Canadian rapeseed is in the harvest stage, but Sino - Canadian trade issues reduce short - term exports to China. - China's preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports is established, and a 75.8% import deposit is imposed. The final tariff policy depends on the development of Sino - Canadian trade relations. - Global rapeseed production increased this year, especially in Canada. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, with the decrease in Ukrainian rapeseed production offset by the increase in Russian production. Geopolitical conflicts still support commodity prices [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and the addition of import deposits; oil mills have no pressure on rapeseed meal inventory. - Bearish factors: Domestic rapeseed meal demand is in the off - season; the final result of China's anti - dumping on Canadian rapeseed imports is still uncertain, with a possibility of reconciliation. - The main logic: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the Canadian rapeseed tariff war [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Price and Spread**: From January 5th to 13th, the average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal increased from 608 to 701. The rapeseed meal futures price fluctuated, and the spot price followed. The spot price was at a relatively high premium. The price difference between soybean and rapeseed meal in the 2605 contract rebounded from a low level [13][15][20]. - **Inventory**: Rapeseed meal inventory was 0 tons, the same as last week and a 100% year - on - year decrease compared to 22,000 tons last year. Oil mill rapeseed inventory remained low, and the rapeseed crushing volume was zero [9][25][27]. - **Aquatic Product Data**: Aquatic fish prices fluctuated slightly, and shrimp and shellfish prices remained stable [35]. 3.5 Position Data - The main short positions increased, and funds flowed in, showing a bearish signal [9].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2026-01-14甲醇早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 检修状况 甲醇2605： 1、基本面：后期国内甲醇市场整体呈偏弱态势，区域走势分化明确。内地方面，当前内地甲醇开工处于绝对高位水平， 而冬季为传统下游需求淡季，叠加下游用户原料库存普遍处于高位，部分下游存在压车现象，尤其是港口部分烯烃装置 有停车计划，需求还将进一步弱化，对业者情绪压制明显。根据历年经验来看，春节前上游甲醇工厂继续维持低库存仍 有出货需求，缺乏利好驱动，后期内地甲醇不排除回落可能。港口方面，宏观面，资金和情绪撤退引发化工板块集体涨 后回调。基本面来看，海外发货和库存下降逻辑仍在，底部（前低）支撑仍在；但如果下游停车或降负陆续兑现， ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2026-1-14） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 焦煤： 1、基本面：除部分煤矿因井下问题产量受限，其余矿点基本维持正常生产节奏，整体产量小幅波动。 受近期钢厂铁水回升的影响，整体煤焦市场情绪出现回暖迹象，下游贸易商和用户企业抄底补库增加,上 游出货情况明显好转，订单增多，主流煤矿竞拍出现不同程度的溢价，竞拍市场流拍率回至低位，市场 成交明显好转；中性 2、基差：现货市场价1200，基差9；现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：钢厂库存801万吨，港口库存295万吨，独立焦企库存861万吨，总样本库存1957万吨，较上 周减少21万吨；偏多 6、预期：随着高炉复产进程推进，铁水产量稳步回升带动原料需求释放，加之下游焦钢企业厂内存煤 属于同期低位，刚性需求稳定，对 ...