Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The nickel price showed a pattern of rising and then falling this week, but still remained in an upward trend overall. Short - term spot supply was tight. In the industrial chain, nickel ore prices rose slightly, and mines were bullish. Nickel iron prices increased significantly, and the cost line went up. Stainless steel inventory declined. Refined nickel inventory remained at a high level, and the oversupply situation remained unchanged. Although the production and sales data of new energy vehicles were good, the overall boost to nickel demand was limited [8]. - The nickel price of the main Shanghai nickel contract was strong. Short - sellers were advised to wait and see, while long - sellers could hold a small amount of positions. The main stainless steel contract was expected to run with a slightly upward trend, and short - sellers should wait for the moment [9][10]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Viewpoints and Strategies - **Shanghai Nickel View**: The nickel price rose and then fell this week, still in an upward trend. Short - term spot was in short supply. Nickel ore prices rose slightly, mines were bullish, nickel iron prices increased sharply, cost line rose, stainless steel inventory decreased, refined nickel inventory was high, and the new energy vehicle sector had limited impact on nickel demand [8]. - **Operation Strategy**: For the main Shanghai nickel contract, short - sellers should wait and see, and long - sellers hold a small number of positions; for the main stainless steel contract, it would run with a slightly upward trend, and short - sellers should wait [9][10]. 2. Fundamental Analysis - **Industry Chain Weekly Price Changes**: Some nickel ore prices rose slightly, battery - grade and electroplating - grade nickel sulfate prices increased by 20.40% and 5.69% respectively, low - nickel iron price remained unchanged, high - nickel iron price rose by 4.86%, electrolytic nickel prices increased, and the 304 stainless steel price rose by 5.63% [13][14]. - **Nickel Ore Market Situation**: Some nickel ore prices rose 1 cent/wet ton, and freight decreased 1 cent/wet ton. On January 8, 2026, the total nickel ore inventory at 14 ports in China was 13.1977 million wet tons, a decrease of 0.92%. In November 2025, nickel ore imports decreased by 28.69% month - on - month and increased by 2.92% year - on - year. Mines were firm on prices [18]. - **Electrolytic Nickel Market Situation**: The nickel price rose and then fell with large fluctuations and average trading volume. Spot supply was tight. Globally, the nickel market was expected to remain oversupplied. In December 2025, China's refined nickel production increased by 2.35% month - on - month and decreased by 16.39% year - on - year. In November 2025, imports increased by 30.07% month - on - month and 40.86% year - on - year, and exports decreased by 20.06% month - on - month and increased by 0.80% year - on - year. LME and SHFE inventories increased [26][27][39]. - **Nickel Iron Market Situation**: Low - nickel iron price remained stable, and high - nickel iron price rose. In December 2025, China's nickel pig iron production decreased by 3.1% month - on - month. In November 2025, imports decreased by 1.1% month - on - month and increased by 1.4% year - on - year. The December inventory was 217,200 physical tons, equivalent to 22,400 nickel tons [46][48][54]. - **Stainless Steel Market Situation**: The 304 stainless steel price rose by 5.63%. In December, stainless steel production was 3.2605 million tons. Imports were 112,100 tons, and exports were 405,300 tons. On January 9, the national inventory was 948,300 tons, a decrease of 2.91 million tons [59][65][72]. - **New Energy Vehicle Production and Sales Situation**: From January to November, new energy vehicle production and sales increased by 31.4% and 31.2% year - on - year respectively. In November, production and sales were 1.88 million and 1.823 million respectively. In November 2025, the production of power + energy - storage batteries was 193GWh, and the total production of power + energy - storage + consumer batteries increased by 12.4% month - on - month and 64.6% year - on - year [77][80]. 3. Technical Analysis - From the daily K - line, the price continued to rise significantly and deviated from the moving average. There was some competition among long - sellers at high positions. MACD and other indicators were in an upward trend. The price should be followed, but risks should also be noted. A small number of long positions could be held, and short - sellers should wait and see [83]. 4. Industrial Chain Summary - **Fundamental View**: The impact of the nickel ore link on the nickel price was neutral to strong, with stable prices and bullish mines; the nickel iron link was also neutral to strong, with rising prices and an upward - moving cost line; the refined nickel link was neutral, with short - term supply shortages and long - term oversupply; the stainless steel link was neutral, with falling inventory and rising costs; the new energy link was neutral, with good production data but the continued replacement of ternary batteries [86]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the main Shanghai nickel contract, short - sellers should wait and see, and long - sellers hold a small number of positions; for the main stainless steel contract, it would run with a slightly upward trend, and short - sellers should wait [88][89].

Report Summary - **Report Title**: Sugar Weekly Report (1.5 - 1.9) - **Reporting Department**: Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department - **Reporter**: Wang Mingwei 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, sugar generally fluctuated within the range of 5,200 - 5,300, with weak short - term rebound momentum. The main sugar contract 05 is expected to have a short - term oscillatory rebound, with attention on the resistance around 5,300. Currently, it is the peak season for new sugar listing and the off - season for consumption, so the rebound strength is limited, and it is expected to oscillate and consolidate within the 5,200 - 5,300 range [4][5][8]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the sugar market. Positive factors include a possible decline in Brazilian sugar production in the 26/27 season, an increase in syrup tariffs, and the change in the US cola formula to use sucrose. Negative factors include an increase in global sugar production, a global supply surplus in the new season, the opening of the import profit window due to the fall of foreign sugar prices to around 14.5 cents per pound, and increased import impact [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review - This week, sugar generally fluctuated within the 5,200 - 5,300 range, with weak short - term rebound momentum. Multiple institutions have different forecasts for the 25/26 global sugar supply surplus, with ISO predicting 163,000 tons, DATAGRO reducing the forecast from 280,000 tons to 100,000 tons, Czarnikow increasing the forecast to 740,000 tons, and StoneX predicting 370,000 tons. As of the end of October 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 25/26 season was 883,000 tons, the cumulative sugar sales were 91,600 tons, and the sales rate was 10.37%. In November 2025, China imported 440,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year decrease of 90,000 tons, and imported 114,400 tons of syrup and premixed powder, a year - on - year decrease of 108,200 tons [4]. 3.2 Daily Tips - The main sugar contract 05 is expected to have a short - term oscillatory rebound, with attention on the resistance around 5,300. Currently, it is the peak season for new sugar listing and the off - season for consumption, so the rebound strength is limited, and it is expected to oscillate and consolidate within the 5,200 - 5,300 range [5][8]. - Positive factors include a possible decline in Brazilian sugar production in the 26/27 season, an increase in syrup tariffs, and the change in the US cola formula to use sucrose. Negative factors include an increase in global sugar production, a global supply surplus in the new season, the opening of the import profit window due to the fall of foreign sugar prices to around 14.5 cents per pound, and increased import impact [6]. 3.3 Today's Focus No information provided in the report. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Multiple institutions have different forecasts for the 25/26 global sugar supply surplus. StoneX predicts a surplus of 370,000 tons due to increased production in Brazil, India, and Thailand and weak global consumption growth; ISO predicts a surplus of 163,000 tons as global sugar production is expected to increase by 3.15% while consumption only grows by 0.6%; Datagro predicts a surplus of 153,000 tons as the global supply is expected to shift significantly from shortage to surplus compared to the previous season [4][31]. - From 2023/24 to 2025/26, the sugar - cane sown area, harvested area, and sugar production in China show an upward trend. The import volume is expected to reach 5 million tons in 2025/26, and the consumption is expected to be 15.7 million tons. The international sugar price is expected to be in the range of 14.0 - 18.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be in the range of 5,500 - 6,000 yuan per ton [33]. - The cost of imported raw sugar after processing and paying 50% tariff was about 5,086.1 yuan per ton at the end of October 2025, with considerable import profit due to the continuous decline of international sugar prices [36]. 3.5 Position Data No information provided in the report.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, cotton prices rose first and then fell. After a continuous rebound, the correction was relatively rapid. The main cotton contract 05 faces significant pressure around 15,000. After a rapid correction, prices are expected to fluctuate around 14,500 [6]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the cotton market. Positive factors include the expected reduction of over 10% in the cotton planting area in Xinjiang in 2026, pre - Chinese New Year inventory replenishment by downstream enterprises, and a 10% reduction in export tariffs to the US compared to the previous period. Negative factors include a decline in overall foreign trade orders, increased inventory, a large amount of new cotton on the market, and the current traditional off - season for consumption [7][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review - This week, cotton prices showed a pattern of rising first and then falling. After continuous rebounds, the correction was relatively fast. The expected reduction in the cotton planting area in Xinjiang in 2026 may exceed 10%. According to the USDA December report, the production in the 2025/2026 season is 26.081 million tons, consumption is 25.823 million tons, and the ending inventory is 16.541 million tons. In November, textile and clothing exports were $23.869 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 5.12%. In November, China imported 120,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year increase of 9.4%, and 150,000 tons of cotton yarn, a year - on - year increase of 25%. According to the Ministry of Agriculture's December 2025/2026 forecast, production is 6.7 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.6 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.35 million tons [6]. 3.2 Daily Tips - Positive factors: Expected reduction of over 10% in the cotton planting area in Xinjiang in 2026, pre - Chinese New Year inventory replenishment by downstream enterprises, and a 10% reduction in export tariffs to the US compared to the previous period [7]. - Negative factors: Decline in overall foreign trade orders, increased inventory, a large amount of new cotton on the market, and the current traditional off - season for consumption [8]. 3.3 Today's Focus No information provided. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **USDA Global Cotton Supply - Demand Forecast (December)**: In the 2025/2026 season, global production is 26.081 million tons, consumption is 25.873 million tons, and the ending inventory is 16.541 million tons. There are differences in production, consumption, import, and export data among different countries. For example, the US production is expected to increase by 38.1% year - on - year, while Australia's production is expected to decrease by 23.9% year - on - year [11][12]. - **ICAC Global Cotton Supply - Demand Forecast (November 2025)**: The planting area is 30.41385 million hectares, the yield per unit area is 835.13 kg/ha, production is 25.39956 million tons, consumption is 25.00778 million tons, and the ending inventory is 16.22785 million tons [14]. - **Ministry of Agriculture's Data**: In the 2025/2026 season, production is 7.278 million tons, imports are 1.1 million tons, consumption is 8.1 million tons, and the ending inventory is 10.116 million tons [16]. 3.5 Position Data No information provided.

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铝周报（1.5~1.9） 大越期货投资咨询部:祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目录 一、行情回顾 二、基本面（库存结构） 三、市场结构 上周回顾 沪铝周报： 沪铝上周震荡上行，上周主力合约上涨6.31%，周五收盘报24330元/吨。在碳中和下长期控制产能，国 内房地产压制需求不振，取消对铝材出口退税，对于国内铝价构成利空，消费有所影响，但注意铝代 铜机会。国内基本面上，需求进入淡季，关注后期消费变化。上周LME库存497825吨，较前周出现小幅 减少，SHFE周库存增14010吨至143828吨。 期货主力 数据来源：博易大师 供需平衡 数据来源：Wind 基本面 1、供需平衡表 2、铝 3、铝土矿 4、氧化铝 5、铝棒 供需平衡 | | | | 中国年度供需平衡表 铝(万吨) | | | | -- ...

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a polyolefin morning report dated January 12, 2026, provided by Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [2] Group 2: LLDPE Analysis Fundamental Analysis - In December, the official manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, back in the expansion zone after 8 months. OPEC+ decided to maintain the production plan in February and March 2026. Recent political unrest in Iran has pushed up international oil prices. In the supply - demand side, greenhouse film demand is falling while mulch film demand is rising, and packaging film orders and production are increasing. The current LLDPE delivery spot price is 6600 (-20), with a neutral overall fundamental situation [4] Other Indicators - The basis of LLDPE 2605 contract is -74, with a premium - discount ratio of -1.1%, indicating a bearish signal. PE comprehensive inventory is 42.5 million tons (+2.6), neutral. The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, bullish. The main position of LLDPE is net short and increasing short positions, bearish [4] Expectation - The LLDPE main contract is expected to fluctuate and rebound. With OPEC's suspension of production increase in the first quarter, geopolitical factors driving up oil prices, neutral industrial inventory, and short - term recovery in downstream demand, PE is expected to trend slightly stronger today [4] Factors - Bullish factors include cost support and crude oil rebound. Bearish factor is that downstream demand is weaker year - on - year. The main logic is oversupply and sensitive marginal changes in supply and demand [6] Group 3: PP Analysis Fundamental Analysis - Similar to LLDPE, the macro situation shows the manufacturing PMI returning to the expansion zone, OPEC+ maintaining production plan, and rising oil prices due to geopolitical factors. PDH device maintenance has increased. In the supply - demand side, plastic weaving demand is weak and mainly for rigid needs, and pipe demand is average. The current PP delivery spot price is 6380 (+0), with a neutral overall fundamental situation [7] Other Indicators - The basis of PP 2605 contract is -134, with a premium - discount ratio of -2.1%, indicating a bearish signal. PP comprehensive inventory is 46.8 million tons (-2.3), neutral. The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, bullish. The main position of PP is net short and reducing short positions, bearish [7] Expectation - The PP main contract is expected to fluctuate and rebound. With OPEC's suspension of production increase in the first quarter, geopolitical factors driving up oil prices, neutral industrial inventory, downstream demand mainly for rigid needs, and increasing PDH device maintenance, PP is expected to trend sideways today [7] Factors - Bullish factors include cost support and crude oil rebound. Bearish factor is the off - season of downstream demand. The main logic is oversupply and sensitive marginal changes in supply and demand [9] Group 4: Market Data Spot and Futures - For LLDPE, the spot delivery price is 6600 (-20), and the 05 contract price is 6674 (+46). For PP, the spot delivery price is 6380 (+0), and the 05 contract price is 6514 (+30) [10] Inventory - LLDPE: Warehouse receipts are 11365 (unchanged), PE comprehensive factory inventory is 42.5 million tons (unchanged), and social inventory is 48.5 million tons (unchanged). PP: Warehouse receipts are 15445 (-20), PP comprehensive factory inventory is 46.8 million tons (unchanged), and social inventory is 30.4 million tons (unchanged) [10] Group 5: Supply - Demand Balance Sheets Polyethylene - From 2018 - 2024, the capacity, production, net import, and apparent consumption of polyethylene have generally shown an upward trend, with fluctuations in import dependence and consumption growth rate [15] Polypropylene - From 2018 - 2024, the capacity, production, net import, and apparent consumption of polypropylene have also generally increased, with changes in import dependence and consumption growth rate [17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - For Shanghai Nickel 2602, short - term fluctuations are large, and intraday trading is recommended [3] - For Stainless Steel 2602, it is expected to run with a moderately strong trend, and short - sellers should wait [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Shanghai Nickel 3.1.1 Fundamental Analysis - Last week, nickel prices rose first and then fell but remained in an overall upward trend. Short - term spot supplies are tight. Nickel ore prices increased slightly, and mines are bullish. Nickel iron prices rose significantly, and the cost line increased. Stainless steel inventories decreased. Refined nickel inventories remained high, and the oversupply situation remained unchanged. Although new energy vehicle production and sales data are good, the overall boost to nickel demand is limited (bearish) [4] 3.1.2 Basis - The spot price is 141,900, and the basis is 2,810 (bullish) [4] 3.1.3 Inventory - LME inventory is 284,790 (+8,490), and Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts are 38,856 (-474) (bearish) [4] 3.1.4 Market Chart - The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward (bullish) [4] 3.1.5 Main Position - The main position is net long, and long positions increased (bullish) [4] 3.2 Stainless Steel 3.2.1 Fundamental Analysis - Spot stainless steel prices fell. Short - term nickel ore prices were stable with a strengthening trend, ocean freight decreased slightly, mines were firm in holding prices, nickel iron prices continued to rebound, the cost line increased, and stainless steel inventories decreased (neutral to bullish) [6] 3.2.2 Basis - The average stainless steel price is 14,537.5, and the basis is 677.5 (bullish) [6] 3.2.3 Inventory - Futures warehouse receipts are 47,535 (+506) (neutral) [6] 3.2.4 Market Chart - The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward (bullish) [6] 3.3 Price Overview - For Shanghai Nickel, the main contract price on January 9 was 139,090, up 2,650 from January 8. The LME nickel price was 17,700, up 635. SMM1 electrolytic nickel spot price on January 8 was 141,900, down 7,150 from January 7 [12] - For stainless steel, the main contract price on January 9 was 13,860, up 185 from January 8. Cold - rolled coil prices in major regions remained unchanged on January 8 compared to January 7 [12] 3.4 Nickel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - As of January 9, the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 46,650 tons, with futures inventory at 38,856 tons, an increase of 1,106 tons and 1,190 tons respectively. LME inventory was 284,790 tons, an increase of 8,490 tons. The total inventory was 323,646 tons, an increase of 8,016 tons [14][15] 3.5 Stainless Steel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - On January 9, the inventory in Wuxi was 554,200 tons, in Foshan was 263,800 tons, and the national inventory was 948,300 tons, a decrease of 29,100 tons compared to the previous period. The 300 - series inventory was 608,600 tons, a decrease of 14,700 tons. Stainless steel futures warehouse receipts were 47,535 tons, an increase of 506 tons [18][19] 3.6 Nickel Ore and Nickel Iron Prices - Red soil nickel ore CIF prices for Ni1.5% and Ni0.9% remained unchanged at 55 and 29 US dollars per wet ton respectively on January 9 compared to January 8. High - nickel wet ton prices were 956.94 yuan per nickel point, up 2.33 yuan, and low - nickel wet ton prices remained unchanged at 3,350 yuan per ton [23] 3.7 Stainless Steel Production Cost - The traditional production cost is 13,339 yuan, the scrap steel production cost is 13,696 yuan, and the low - nickel + pure nickel production cost is 17,857 yuan [25] 3.8 Nickel Import Cost Calculation - The converted import price is 140,694 yuan per ton [28]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - For rebar, with weak demand, rising inventory at a low level, low procurement willingness of traders, and the real - estate industry in a downward cycle, it is recommended to take a volatile and bearish approach [2]. - For hot - rolled coils, considering factors such as weakening supply and demand, increasing inventory, blocked exports, and the impact of domestic capacity - reduction plans, a volatile and bearish approach is also suggested [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Rebar - **Fundamentals**: Demand shows no improvement, inventory is rising from a low level, and traders' procurement willingness is still weak. The real - estate industry is in a downward cycle, which is bearish [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of rebar is 3290, and the basis is 146, which is bullish [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventory in 35 major cities across the country is 2.9018 million tons, increasing month - on - month and decreasing year - on - year, which is bullish [2]. - **Disk**: The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward, which is bullish [2]. - **Main positions**: The net position of the main rebar contract is short, and short positions are decreasing, which is bearish [2]. - **Likely factors**: Low production, spot premium, and promotion of domestic consumption [3]. - **Negative factors**: The downstream real - estate industry's downward cycle continues, and terminal demand remains weak, lower than the same period [4]. Hot - rolled Coils - **Fundamentals**: Both supply and demand are weakening, inventory is decreasing, exports are blocked, and domestic policies may play a role, which is neutral [7]. - **Basis**: The spot price of hot - rolled coils is 3270, and the basis is - 24, which is bearish [7]. - **Inventory**: The inventory in 33 major cities across the country is 2.9081 million tons, increasing month - on - month and year - on - year, which is neutral [7]. - **Disk**: The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward, which is bullish [7]. - **Main positions**: The net position of the main hot - rolled coil contract is long, and long positions are increasing, which is bullish [7]. - **Likely factors**: Fair demand, spot premium, and promotion of domestic consumption [9]. - **Negative factors**: Downstream demand enters the seasonal off - season, and the outlook is pessimistic [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall fundamentals of urea are neutral, with the current daily production and operating rate at a high level year-on-year. As maintenance returns, the operating rate is expected to rise further. The comprehensive inventory continues to decline, showing an obvious de-stocking pattern. Order demand has improved significantly compared to the previous period, and agricultural reserve demand has increased. Industrial demand is mainly based on needs, with the operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine being neutral. There is a large price difference between domestic and international exports, and the recent demand for low-cost replenishment is relatively concentrated. However, the domestic urea market remains oversupplied. The urea main contract is expected to fluctuate strongly today [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Urea Overview 3.1.1 Fundamentals - The current daily production and operating rate are at a high level year-on-year. As maintenance returns, the operating rate is expected to rise. The comprehensive inventory continues to decline, and the de-stocking pattern is obvious. Order demand has improved significantly, agricultural reserve demand has increased, industrial demand is mainly based on needs, and the operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine are neutral. There is a large price difference between domestic and international exports, and the recent demand for low-cost replenishment is relatively concentrated. The domestic urea market remains oversupplied. The spot price of the delivery product is 1750 (+0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. 3.1.2 Basis - The basis of the UR2605 contract is -26, and the premium/discount ratio is -1.5%, indicating a bearish signal [4]. 3.1.3 Inventory - The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.157 million tons (-34,000 tons), indicating a neutral situation [4]. 3.1.4 Futures Disk - The 20-day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20-day line, indicating a bullish signal [4]. 3.1.5 Main Position - The net position of the UR main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, indicating a bearish signal [4]. 3.1.6 Expectation - The urea main contract is expected to fluctuate strongly. The operating rate is expected to continue to rise, order demand has improved, reserve demand has increased, and the inventory is de-stocking. The UR is expected to fluctuate strongly today [4]. 3.2 Factors Affecting Urea Market 3.2.1 Bullish Factors - Inventory de-stocking and improved orders [5]. 3.2.2 Bearish Factors - Domestic oversupply [5]. 3.2.3 Main Logic - International prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5]. 3.3 Spot and Futures Market Conditions - The spot price of the delivery product is 1750, with no change; the price of the Shandong spot is 1750, down 10; the price of the Henan spot is 1750, with no change; the FOB China price is 2793. The price of the UR05 contract is 1777, up 1; the price of the UR01 contract is 1690, up 5; the price of the UR09 contract is 1754, down 2. The basis of the UR05 contract is -27, down 1. The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.157 million tons, down 34,000 tons; the UR manufacturer inventory is 1.022 million tons, up 3,000 tons; the UR port inventory is 135,000 tons, down 37,000 tons [6]. 3.4 Urea Supply and Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Imports | PP Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | | 2245.5 | | 1956.81 | 448.38 | 18.6% | 2405.19 | 23.66 | 2405.19 | | | 2019 | | 2445.5 | 8.9% | 2240 | 487.94 | 17.9% | 2727.94 | 37.86 | 2713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | | 2825.5 | 15.5% | 2580.98 | 619.12 | 19.3% | 3200.1 | 37.83 | 3200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | | 3148.5 | 11.4% | 2927.99 | 352.41 | 10.7% | 3280.4 | 35.72 | 3282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | | 3413.5 | 8.4% | 2965.46 | 335.37 | 10.2% | 3300.83 | 44.62 | 3291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | | 3893.5 | 14.1% | 3193.59 | 293.13 | 8.4% | 3486.72 | 44.65 | 3486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | | 4418.5 | 13.5% | 3425 | 360 | 9.5% | 3785 | 51.4 | 3778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | | 4906 | 11.0% | | | | | | | [9]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - **Coking Coal**: The main - producing area coal mines are gradually resuming production, with a loose production expectation. Market activity has slightly recovered, and some coal prices have stopped falling and stabilized, with a slight upward - probing expectation for some mines. The short - term coking coal price is expected to remain stable. Although the profit of coking enterprises has declined, their production enthusiasm remains high, and there is still a certain rigid demand for raw material replenishment and winter storage [2]. - **Coke**: Driven by multiple positive factors, the futures market has continued to rebound. The supply - demand pattern of coke has gradually improved, and the cost support is expected to strengthen. The short - term coke price is expected to remain stable [5]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Viewpoints - **Coking Coal** - **Fundamentals**: Main - producing area coal mines are resuming production, market inquiries have increased, and some speculative demands have emerged. Coal mines are less willing to cut prices further, and some coal prices have stopped falling [2]. - **Basis**: The spot market price is 1200, and the basis is 4.5, with the spot at a premium to the futures [2]. - **Inventory**: The total sample inventory is 1957 tons, a decrease of 21 tons from last week [2]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line [2]. - **Main Position**: The main position of coking coal is net long, with a decrease in long positions [2]. - **Expectation**: With the end of environmental protection and maintenance, some steel mills are resuming production, and the coking enterprises' demand for raw material replenishment and winter storage remains. The short - term price is expected to be stable [2]. - **Coke** - **Fundamentals**: Coke enterprises' shipment is good, steel mills' procurement enthusiasm has increased, and the inventory has decreased. The cost support has strengthened due to the stop - falling of some coal prices [6]. - **Basis**: The spot market price is 1630, and the basis is - 118, with the spot at a discount to the futures [6]. - **Inventory**: The total sample inventory is 858 tons, a decrease of 1 ton from last week [6]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line [6]. - **Main Position**: The main position of coke is net long, with a decrease in long positions [6]. - **Expectation**: Driven by multiple positive factors, the futures market has rebounded, and the supply - demand pattern has improved. The short - term price is expected to be stable [5]. Influencing Factors - **Coking Coal** - **Positive**: Iron - water production has increased, and supply is difficult to increase [4]. - **Negative**: Coking and steel enterprises have slowed down the procurement of raw coal, and steel prices are weak [4]. - **Coke** - **Positive**: Iron - water production and blast - furnace operating rate have increased [8]. - **Negative**: Steel mills' profit margins are squeezed, and the replenishment demand has been partially overdrawn [8]. Price The report provides the port metallurgical coke price index on January 9th (17:30), including prices of different grades of metallurgical coke from different origins at various ports [10]. Inventory - **Port Inventory**: Coking coal port inventory is 295 tons, a decrease of 0.1 tons from last week; coke port inventory is 195.1 tons, an increase of 1 ton from last week [18]. - **Independent Coking Enterprises Inventory**: Coking coal inventory is 819.3 tons, a decrease of 69.2 tons from last week; coke inventory is 42.5 tons, an increase of 3.5 tons from last week [22]. - **Steel Mills Inventory**: Coking coal inventory is 803.8 tons, an increase of 4.3 tons from last week; coke inventory is 626.7 tons, a decrease of 13.3 tons from last week [27]. Other Data - **Coking Oven Capacity Utilization**: The capacity utilization of 230 independent coking enterprises in the country is 74.48% [40]. - **Average Profit per Ton of Coke**: The average profit per ton of coke of 30 independent coking plants in the country is 25 yuan [44].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2026年1月12日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 PTA 每日观点 PTA： 1、基本面：周五，1月货主流在05-55有成交，个别略高在05-50，略低在05-58，价格商谈区间在4990~5070。2月中在05贴水 51~53有成交，2下在05贴水40~43。今日主流现货基差在05-55。中性 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 6、预期：近期PTA自身装置变动不多，供需格局暂时维持，下半周下游聚酯减产消息集中发酵，贸易商持货意愿减弱，现货基 差快速走弱，预计短期内PTA现货价格跟随成本端震荡，现货基差偏弱运行。关注油价波动及下游装置变动。 2、基差：现货5038，05合约基差-70，盘面升水 中性 3、库存：PTA工厂库存3.6天 ...