沪铝早报- 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 ：祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 铝: 1、基本面：碳中和控制产能扩张，下游需求不强劲，房地产延续疲软，宏观短期情绪多变；中性。 2、基差：现货20470，基差-55，贴水期货，中性。 3、库存：上期所铝库存较上周增1737吨至117527吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线下，20均线向下运行；偏空。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，多减；偏多。 6、预期：碳中和催发铝行业变革，长期利多铝价，多空交织，铝价震荡运行。 近期利多利空分析 利多： 利空： 逻辑： 降息和需求疲软博弈 1、碳中和控制产能扩张。 2、俄乌地缘政治扰动，影响俄铝供应。 3、降息 1、全球经济并不乐观，高铝价会压制下游消费。 2、铝材出口退税取消 每日汇总 | 现货 昨日现货 | 地方 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪镍&不锈钢早报—2025年8月5日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资：F3023048 投资咨询证：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 沪镍 每日观点 6、结论：沪镍2509：20均线上下宽幅震荡运行。 1、基本面：外盘反弹，但20均线承压。产业链上，矿价弱稳，镍铁价格同样弱稳，但部分报价有所回 升，成本线依然在低位。不锈钢7、8月是传统消费淡季，本周库存300系有小幅上升。新能源汽车产销 数据较好，但三元电池装车量在下降，镍在新能源的需求下降。中长线过剩格局不变。偏空 2、基差：现货121250，基差620，偏多 3、库存：LME库存209082，0，上交所仓单21170，-204，偏空 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线以下，20均线向上，中性 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增，偏空 多空因素 影响因素总结 利多： 利空： 1、接下来金九银十预期 2、反内 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - PTA: The PTA futures fluctuated at a low level yesterday, with a general negotiation atmosphere in the spot market and a weak spot basis. Some mainstream suppliers sold their goods. The supply - demand pattern is okay due to some PTA device shutdowns last week, but the spot basis is weak. Considering the cooling macro - atmosphere, commodity correction, insufficient cost support, and weak downstream demand in the off - season, the PTA spot price is expected to fluctuate in the short term. Attention should be paid to whether there are new changes in PTA devices under continuous low processing fees [5]. - MEG: On Monday, the price of ethylene glycol fluctuated within a narrow range, and the market negotiation was general. Due to weather - related delays in vessel arrivals this week, the visible inventory is expected to decline. The ethylene glycol operating rate has rebounded to around 69%, and there is still room for improvement. Fundamentally, the supply - demand of ethylene glycol will shift to inventory accumulation, and the tradable spot in the market will gradually become more abundant. It is expected that the price of ethylene glycol will be adjusted weakly in the short term, and attention should be paid to changes in the cost side [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Previous Day Review No specific content for the previous day review is provided. 3.2. Daily Tips - **PTA** - Fundamental aspect: Futures were low - level fluctuating, spot negotiation was general, and basis was weak. 8 - month mainstream transactions were at 09 - 15, 9 - month mid - term at 09 flat, and 9 - month end at 09 + 5. Today's mainstream spot basis is 09 - 15 [5]. - Basis: Spot price is 4700, 09 - contract basis is 2, and the futures price is higher than the spot price [6]. - Inventory: PTA factory inventory is 3.82 days, a decrease of 0.17 days compared to the previous period [6]. - Position of main players: Net short position with an increase in short positions [5]. - Expectation: Short - term price fluctuation, pay attention to new changes in devices under low processing fees [5]. - **MEG** - Fundamental aspect: Price fluctuated narrowly, and market negotiation was general. Spot transactions were in a narrow range, with a premium of 77 - 80 yuan/ton over the 09 - contract. The foreign - exchange price also fluctuated narrowly [7]. - Basis: Spot price is 4455, 09 - contract basis is 66, and the spot price is higher than the futures price [7]. - Inventory: The total inventory in East China is 42.74 tons, a decrease of 4.14 tons compared to the previous period [7]. - Position of main players: Net short position with a decrease in short positions [7]. - Expectation: Short - term weak price adjustment, pay attention to cost - side changes [7]. 3.3. Today's Focus No specific content for today's focus is provided. 3.4. Fundamental Data - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the data of PTA production capacity, load, output, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and inventory from January 2024 to December 2025, reflecting the supply - demand relationship and inventory changes over time [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It presents the data of ethylene glycol's total operating rate, production, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and port inventory from January 2024 to December 2025, showing the supply - demand situation and inventory changes [11]. - **Price - related Data**: It includes the price, production profit, capacity utilization rate, inventory, and various spreads of bottle chips, as well as the basis, spreads, and price differences of PTA and MEG, and the processing fees and profits of related products, covering the data from 2020 to 2025 [13][16][23][26][29][36]. - **Inventory - related Data**: It shows the inventory data of PTA, MEG, PET slices, and various polyester products, including factory - level and port - level inventories, from 2021 to 2025 [40][42][49]. - **Operating Rate - related Data**: It presents the operating rate data of PTA, paraxylene, ethylene glycol, polyester factories, and PTA - related industries from 2020 to 2025 [51][53][55]. - **Profit - related Data**: It includes the processing fees of PTA and the production profits of MEG and various polyester products from 2022 to 2025 [58][61][64].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. The USDA's South American production forecast for the 24/25 season is high, the Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, and demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the US biodiesel policy for soybean oil supports increased biodiesel consumption. The Chinese government's decision to impose tariffs on Canadian rapeseed has led to a rise in the rapeseed sector, and the domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral with stable import inventories. The easing of Sino-US and Sino-Canadian relations affects the market at the macro level [2][3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that in May, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% to 1.49 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral as the production reduction is less than expected. Currently, shipping survey agencies indicate that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month-on-month, and as the production season approaches, the supply of palm oil will increase [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,428, with a basis of 178, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [2]. - **Inventory**: On July 4th, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 880,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 11.7% higher year-on-year [2]. - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [2]. - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have decreased [2]. - **Expectation**: The soybean oil Y2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,000 - 8,400 [2]. Daily View - Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report on Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and the supply is expected to increase in the future [3]. - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 8,888, with a basis of 50, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [3]. - **Inventory**: On July 4th, the port inventory of palm oil was 380,000 tons, down 10,000 tons from the previous period and 34.1% lower year-on-year [3]. - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [3]. - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main palm oil contract have decreased [3]. - **Expectation**: The palm oil P2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,600 - 9,000 [3]. Daily View - Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: The same MPOB report on Malaysian palm oil applies, with a neutral outlook and increasing supply [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9,623, with a basis of 81, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [4]. - **Inventory**: On July 4th, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 650,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 3.2% higher year-on-year [4]. - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [4]. - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have decreased [4]. - **Expectation**: The rapeseed oil OI2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,350 - 9,750 [4]. Recent Bullish and Bearish Analysis - **Bullish Factors**: The US soybean stocks-to-use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply [5]. - **Bearish Factors**: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high historical level, and the domestic inventory of oils and fats has been continuously increasing. The macroeconomy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5]. - **Main Logic**: The global fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively loose [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view is that the short - term trend of Shanghai Zinc ZN2509 is expected to be oscillating and weakening. The previous trading day saw Shanghai Zinc oscillating, with the price closing above the long - term moving average with strong support from the moving average. The short - term indicator KDJ is declining and operating in the weak area, and the trend indicator shows that the bullish force is rising while the bearish force is falling, with the forces of both sides starting to be in a stalemate. [2][19] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Analysis - In April 2025, global zinc plate production was 1.153 million tons, consumption was 1.1302 million tons, with a supply surplus of 22,700 tons. From January to April, production was 4.4514 million tons, consumption was 4.5079 million tons, with a supply shortage of 56,500 tons. From January to April, global zinc ore production was 4.0406 million tons, which is considered bullish. [2] - The basis is 15, which is neutral. [2] - On August 4, LME zinc inventory decreased by 3,825 tons to 97,000 tons compared to the previous day, and the SHFE zinc inventory warrant decreased by 75 tons to 14,907 tons, which is considered bullish. [2] - The previous day, Shanghai Zinc showed an oscillating trend, closing below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average was downward, which is considered bearish. [2] - The main positions are net long, with a shift from short to long, which is considered bullish. [2] 3.2 Futures Exchange Zinc Futures Market on August 4 - There are multiple delivery months for zinc futures, such as 2508, 2509, etc. For example, in the 2509 contract, the previous settlement price was 22,345, the opening price was 22,225, the highest price was 22,270, the lowest price was 22,125, the closing price was 22,255, and the settlement reference price was 22,205, with a decline of 90 (first type of change) and 140 (second type of change). The trading volume was 115,733 lots, the trading value was 1,285,092,980 yuan, and the open interest was 102,725 lots, a decrease of 5,359 lots. [3] 3.3 Domestic Spot Market on August 4 - The prices of various zinc - related products showed different changes. For example, the price of zinc concentrate in Linzhou was 16,930 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan/ton; the price of zinc ingot in Gengshi was 22,240 yuan/ton, a decrease of 110 yuan/ton; the price of galvanized sheet in Tiantian was 4,080 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton; the price of galvanized pipe in Tiantian was 4,483 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan/ton; the price of zinc alloy in Ningbo was 22,720 yuan/ton, a decrease of 130 yuan/ton; the price of zinc powder in Changsha was 27,230 yuan/ton, a decrease of 130 yuan/ton. The prices of zinc oxide in Taizhou and secondary zinc oxide in Cailiao remained unchanged at 20,700 yuan/ton and 7,761 yuan/ton respectively. [4] 3.4 National Main Market Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics (July 24 - August 4, 2025) - The total inventory of zinc ingots in major Chinese markets increased from 80,800 tons on July 24 to 87,200 tons on August 4. Compared with July 28, the inventory increased by 3,600 tons, and compared with July 31, it increased by 2,800 tons. [5] 3.5 Futures Exchange Zinc Warrant Report on August 4 - The total SHFE zinc warrant was 14,907 tons, a decrease of 75 tons compared to the previous day. Different regions had different warrant holdings, such as 25 tons in Shanghai, 3,238 tons in Zhongchu Jingshi in Guangdong, etc. [6] 3.6 LME Zinc Inventory Distribution and Statistics on August 4 - The previous day's inventory was 100,825 tons, with 0 tons received into the warehouse and 3,975 tons withdrawn from the warehouse, resulting in a current inventory of 96,850 tons, a decrease of 3,975 tons. The registered warrants were 57,075 tons, the cancelled warrants were 43,750 tons, and the cancellation ratio was 43.39%. [7] 3.7 National Main City Zinc Concentrate Price Summary on August 4 - The prices of 50% - grade zinc concentrate in major cities showed a decline. For example, the price in Jiyuan, Kunming, etc. was 16,930 yuan/ton, with a decline of 90 yuan/ton. [9] 3.8 National Market Zinc Ingot Smelter Price Quotes on August 4 - The prices of 0 zinc ingot from different smelters all decreased by 130 yuan/ton. For example, the price from Hunan Zhuzhou was 22,530 yuan/ton, from Liaoning Huludao Zinc Industry was 22,670 yuan/ton, etc. [13] 3.9 June 2025 Domestic Refined Zinc Production - The planned production value in June was 459,700 tons, and the actual production was 471,800 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 11.67% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.36%. The production was 2.63% higher than the planned value, and the capacity utilization rate was 87.10%. The planned production in July was 470,300 tons. [15] 3.10 Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee Market on August 4 - The processing fees of 50% - grade zinc concentrate in different regions vary. For example, in Fift 14F, the average processing fee was 3,800 yuan/metal ton, and in some regions, it increased or remained unchanged. The average processing fee for imported 48% - grade zinc concentrate was 70 US dollars/kiloton, an increase of 11 US dollars/kiloton. [17] 3.11 SHFE Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking Table on August 4 - In the zn2509 contract, in terms of trading volume, CITIC Futures ranked first with 36,893 lots, an increase of 5,050 lots compared to the previous day. In terms of long positions, CITIC Futures ranked first with 8,994 lots, a decrease of 411 lots. In terms of short positions, CITIC Futures also ranked first with 10,617 lots, a decrease of 1,648 lots. [18]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2025-8-5 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 尿素概述： • 1. 基本面：近期尿素盘面震荡。此前反内卷情绪导致的原料端涨幅开始回落。国内供应方面， 日产及开工率仍处于偏高位置，库存再度累库。需求端，工业需求中复合肥开工持续回落，三聚 氰胺开工亦回落，农业淡季需求持续回落。国内尿素整体供过于求仍明显，出口政策未超预期放 开。交割品现货1800（+50），基本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： UR2509合约基差67，升贴水比例3.7%，偏多； • 3. 库存：UR综合库存147.7万吨（+4.6），偏空； • 4. 盘面： UR主力合约20日均线走平，收盘价位于20日线下，偏空； • 5. 主力持仓：UR主力持仓净空，减空，偏空； • 6. 预期：尿素主力合约盘 ...

Report Overview - The report is a polyolefin morning report dated August 5, 2025, focusing on LLDPE and PP [2] LLDPE Analysis Fundamental Factors - In July, the official manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, still in the contraction range. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced a plan to adjust the structure of key industries. However, the short - term price increase driven by anti - involution sentiment and oil prices have declined. Currently, the spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7300 (-40), with a neutral overall fundamental situation [4] Basis - The basis of the LLDPE 2509 contract is 21, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.3%, considered neutral [4] Inventory - The comprehensive PE inventory is 49.1 million tons (-7.2), also neutral [4] Market Trends - The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is flat, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, showing a bearish trend. The main position of LLDPE is net short, with a reduction in short positions, also bearish [4] Expectations - The LLDPE main contract is expected to fluctuate. The price increase driven by macro - stability policies has subsided, it is the off - season for agricultural film demand, downstream demand is weak, and industrial inventory is neutral [4] Influential Factors - Bullish factor: cost support; Bearish factor: weak demand. The main logic is based on cost, demand, and domestic macro - policies [6] PP Analysis Fundamental Factors - Similar to LLDPE, in July, the official manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, still in the contraction range. The short - term price increase and oil prices have declined. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 7150 (-0), with a neutral overall fundamental situation. The downstream demand is in the off - season, and the demand for pipes and plastic weaving is weak due to summer weather [7] Basis - The basis of the PP 2509 contract is 76, with a premium - discount ratio of 1.1%, considered bullish [7] Inventory - The comprehensive PP inventory is 56.5 million tons (-1.6), showing a bearish trend [7] Market Trends - The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is flat, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, showing a bearish trend. The main position of PP is net short, with an increase in short positions, also bearish [7] Expectations - The PP main contract is expected to fluctuate. The price increase driven by macro - stability policies has subsided, downstream demand for pipes and plastic weaving is weak, and industrial inventory is neutral [7] Influential Factors - Bullish factor: cost support; Bearish factor: weak demand. The main logic is based on cost, demand, and domestic macro - policies [9] Supply - Demand Balance Tables Polyethylene - From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity of polyethylene has been increasing, with a projected 20.5% increase in 2025E. The import dependence has been gradually decreasing, and the consumption growth rate has fluctuated [15] Polypropylene - From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity of polypropylene has also been increasing, with an expected 11.0% increase in 2025E. The import dependence has shown some fluctuations, and the consumption growth rate has generally been positive [17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of the methanol market are becoming more polarized, and regional trends are expected to be prominent in the later stage. In the port market, with concentrated imports expected next week, there is a high probability of inventory accumulation. The shutdown and maintenance of coal - to - olefin plants in Zhejiang and the off - season of the industry will drag down overall demand, so the port market is predicted to be weak. Inland, although methanol production is on the rise, low enterprise inventories mean no short - term supply pressure. The restart of olefin plants and the external procurement demand of northwest CTO enterprises support the inland methanol price. However, affected by the weak port market, the inland methanol price is expected to fluctuate slightly [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly Review - The fundamentals of the methanol market are polarized, with different trends in the port and inland markets. The port market may face inventory accumulation and weak demand, while the inland market has relatively healthy supply - demand fundamentals but is affected by the port's weakness [6]. 3.2 Fundamental Data 3.2.1 Domestic Methanol Spot Price - From July 25th to August 1st, the prices in different regions showed different trends. The price in Jiangsu decreased by 4.14%, from 2488 yuan/ton to 2385 yuan/ton; the price in Shandong (Lunan) remained unchanged at 2230 yuan/ton; the price in Hebei increased by 0.45%, from 2225 yuan/ton to 2235 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia increased by 0.73%, from 2050 yuan/ton to 2065 yuan/ton; and the price in Fujian decreased by 3.97%, from 2520 yuan/ton to 2420 yuan/ton [7]. 3.2.2 Methanol Spot, Futures, and Basis - From July 25th to August 1st, the spot price decreased by 4.14% (from 2488 yuan/ton to 2385 yuan/ton), the futures price decreased by 5.00% (from 2519 yuan/ton to 2393 yuan/ton), and the basis increased by 23 yuan/ton [10]. 3.2.3 Methanol Production Profits by Process - Coal - to - methanol profit decreased by 41 yuan/ton from July 25th to August 1st; natural gas - to - methanol profit remained at - 120 yuan/ton; and coke oven gas - to - methanol profit decreased by 334 yuan/ton [13]. 3.2.4 Domestic Methanol Enterprise Load - The national methanol load decreased by 3.81% from last week to this week, from 78.71% to 74.90%. The load in the northwest region decreased by 3.55%, from 85.09% to 81.54% [15]. 3.2.5 Outer - market Methanol Price and Spread - From July 25th to August 1st, the CFR China price decreased by 3.21% (from 280 dollars/ton to 271 dollars/ton), the CFR Southeast Asia price remained unchanged, and the spread between CFR China and CFR Southeast Asia widened by 9 dollars/ton [18]. 3.2.6 Methanol Import Spread - From July 25th to August 1st, the spot price decreased by 4.14%, the import cost decreased by 2.98%, and the import spread decreased by 29 yuan/ton [21]. 3.2.7 Methanol Traditional Downstream Product Price - From July 25th to August 1st, the prices of formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and acetic acid remained unchanged [28]. 3.2.8 Production Profits and Loads of Traditional Downstream Products - Formaldehyde: The production profit decreased by 4 yuan/ton, and the load increased by 0.90% [29]. - Dimethyl ether: The production profit decreased by 14 yuan/ton, and the load increased by 0.82% [31]. - Acetic acid: The production profit increased by 57 yuan/ton, and the load increased by 1.94% [36]. 3.2.9 MTO Production Profit and Load - The MTO production profit increased (from - 1262 yuan/ton to - 932 yuan/ton), and the MTO/MTP device load in the east China slightly increased [40]. 3.2.10 Methanol Port Inventory - In the east China port, the inventory increased from 41.67 to 42.48; in the south China port, the inventory increased from 17.04 to 22.55 [41]. 3.2.11 Methanol Warehouse Receipts and Effective Forecasts - From July 25th to August 1st, the warehouse receipts decreased by 15.67% (from 10134 to 8546), and the effective forecasts remained at 0 [45]. 3.3 Maintenance Status 3.3.1 Domestic Methanol Device Maintenance - Many domestic methanol plants are under maintenance, with different start and end times, raw materials, and production losses. For example, Shaanxi Black Cat (100,000 - ton annual capacity, coke oven gas) started maintenance in early November 2024, and the end time is to be determined, with a weekly production loss of 1950 tons [48]. 3.3.2 Overseas Methanol Device Operation - Some overseas methanol plants in Iran, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, etc. have different operation statuses. For example, ZPC in Iran is reported to have restored one unit, but it needs to be verified; Marjan in Iran is in the process of restarting and recovering in mid - March [49]. 3.3.3 Olefin Device Operation - Many domestic olefin plants have different operation statuses. For example, Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy's methanol and olefin plants stopped for maintenance on March 15th, expected to last for 45 days; Ningbo Fude is operating smoothly [50].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, steel and ore prices declined from their highs due to the fading of market bullish sentiment. The concept of capacity reduction has cooled down, leading to a significant decline in the black market. The trends of finished products and iron ore differ, mainly due to the impact of actual demand. Rebar is dragged down by the real estate and infrastructure sectors, with demand continuing to decrease and showing the weakest performance. Iron ore, on the other hand, is more resilient due to high hot metal production and decreasing inventory. - Although the concept of capacity reduction has cooled down, it is still likely to occur in the steel industry, and the market is not expected to reverse and decline. Before the specific policies of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology become clear, prices are likely to fluctuate, providing opportunities for low - level absorption. - It is recommended to pay attention to the performance of support levels during the decline of steel prices and establish long positions opportunistically. [62] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Raw Material Market Condition Analysis Weekly Data Changes - PB powder price decreased from 781 yuan/wet ton to 768 yuan/wet ton, a drop of 13 yuan/wet ton. - Bar - mixed powder price decreased from 803 yuan/wet ton to 790 yuan/wet ton, a drop of 13 yuan/wet ton. - PB powder spot landing profit increased from - 4.74 yuan/wet ton to - 1.69 yuan/wet ton, an increase of 3.05 yuan/wet ton. - Bar - mixed powder spot landing profit decreased from 1.31 yuan/wet ton to - 4.18 yuan/wet ton, a decrease of 5.49 yuan/wet ton. - Australia's shipping volume to China increased from 1385.4 tons to 1489.4 tons, an increase of 104 tons. - Brazil's shipping volume to China decreased from 907.8 tons to 884.3 tons, a decrease of 23.5 tons. - Imported iron ore port inventory decreased from 14395.68 tons to 14222.01 tons, a decrease of 173.67 tons. - Imported iron ore arrival volume decreased from 2511.8 tons to 2319.7 tons, a decrease of 192.1 tons. - Imported iron ore port clearance volume decreased from 329.33 tons to 317.91 tons, a decrease of 11.42 tons. - Iron ore port trading volume decreased from 99.9 tons to 60.7 tons, a decrease of 39.2 tons. - Average daily hot metal production decreased from 242.23 tons to 240.71 tons, a decrease of 1.52 tons. - Steel enterprise profitability rate increased from 63.64% to 65.37%, an increase of 1.73 percentage points. [6] 2. Market Status Analysis Weekly Data Changes (Steel Products) - Shanghai rebar price decreased from 3430 yuan/ton to 3360 yuan/ton, a drop of 70 yuan/ton. - Shanghai hot - rolled coil price decreased from 3500 yuan/ton to 3410 yuan/ton, a drop of 90 yuan/ton. - Blast furnace operating rate remained unchanged at 83.46%. - Electric furnace operating rate increased from 72.02% to 74.21%, an increase of 2.19 percentage points. - Rebar blast furnace profit decreased from 282 yuan/ton to 200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 82 yuan/ton. - Hot - rolled coil blast furnace profit decreased from 261 yuan/ton to 195 yuan/ton, a decrease of 66 yuan/ton. - Rebar electric furnace profit increased from - 30 yuan/ton to - 7 yuan/ton, an increase of 23 yuan/ton. - Weekly rebar production decreased from 211.96 tons to 211.06 tons, a decrease of 0.9 tons. - Weekly hot - rolled coil production increased from 317.49 tons to 322.79 tons, an increase of 5.3 tons. [32] Weekly Data Changes (Inventory and Consumption) - Weekly rebar social inventory increased from 372.97 tons to 384.14 tons, an increase of 11.17 tons. - Weekly hot - rolled coil social inventory increased from 267.16 tons to 268.65 tons, an increase of 1.49 tons. - Weekly rebar enterprise inventory decreased from 165.67 tons to 162.15 tons, a decrease of 3.52 tons. - Weekly hot - rolled coil enterprise inventory increased from 78 tons to 79.3 tons, an increase of 1.3 tons. - Weekly rebar apparent consumption decreased from 216.58 tons to 203.41 tons, a decrease of 13.17 tons. - Weekly hot - rolled coil apparent consumption increased from 315.24 tons to 320 tons, an increase of 4.76 tons. - Building materials trading volume decreased from 117258 tons to 86678 tons, a decrease of 30580 tons. [34] 3. Supply - Demand Data Analysis - The report also presents various data related to blast furnace and electric furnace operating rates, actual production of rebar and hot - rolled coils, steel profits, inventory levels of rebar and hot - rolled coils in enterprises and society, trading volume of building materials, apparent consumption of rebar and hot - rolled coils, steel exports, real estate development indicators, and manufacturing PMI, but no specific data summaries are provided here as they are mainly presented in graphical forms. [41][44][46]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 菜粕早报 2025-08-04 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸菜粕观点和策略 菜粕RM2509：2660至2720区间震荡 1.基本面：菜粕窄幅震荡，豆粕走势带动和技术性震荡整理，菜粕油厂开机处于低位，菜粕 库存维持低位支撑盘面。菜粕现货需求短期进入旺季，进口油菜籽到港量增多但油厂库 存短期无压力，盘面短期维持区间震荡。中国对加拿大油渣饼进口加征关税短期利多菜 粕，但未对油菜籽进口加征关税，利多程度也或有限。中性 2.基差：现货2600，基差-75，贴水期货。偏空 3.库存：菜粕库存1.9万吨，上周1.51万吨，周环比增加25.83%，去年同期3.4万吨，同比减 少44.12%。偏多 4.盘 ...