沪镍 每日观点 1、基本面：外盘国庆期间总体震荡小幅走高，主要还是宏观面对于美联储在10月继续降息的预期，金 属走强影响。基本面上，镍矿价格继续坚挺，镍铁价格维稳，下方支撑依旧有力。不锈钢去库存化良好， 金九银十表现较佳。新能源汽车产销数据良好，但随着电池端的技术替代，镍的需求增长或受限，三元 电池装车量环比下降。从中长线来看镍的过剩局格不变。偏空 2、基差：现货122450，基差1550，偏多 3、库存：LME库存232632，+1320（假期间），上交所仓单24817，-240，偏空 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线以下，20均线向下，偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减，偏空 6、结论：沪镍2511：维持震荡思路，如有反弹，逢高压力位可试空。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪镍&不锈钢早报—2025年10月9日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资：F3023048 投资咨询证：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2025-10-9 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 纯碱： 1、基本面：碱厂检修量不及预期，远兴二期年前预期投产，整体供给处于高位；下游浮法玻璃 供给扰动较多，光伏日熔量延续下滑趋势，终端需求一般，纯碱厂库处于历史同期高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1170元/吨，SA2601收盘价为1255元/吨，基差为-85元，期货 升水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存165.15万吨，较前一周减少5.93%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面疲弱，短期预计震荡偏弱运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： | 日盘 | 主力合约收盘价 | 重质纯碱：沙 ...

工业硅期货早报 2025年10月9日 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 每日观点 利多：成本上行支撑，厂家停减产计划。 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点——工业硅 | 供给端来看 | 上周工业硅供应量为9 | 3万吨 | 环比有所增加1 | 09% | ， | ， | 。 | . | . | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 需求端来看 | 上周工业硅需求为8 | 6万吨 | 环比增长7 | 需求有所抬升 | 50% | ， | ， | . | . | . ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沥青期货早报 2025年10月9日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 | 供给端来看 | 根据隆众 | 2025年8月份国内沥青总计划排产量为241 | 3万吨 | 环比降幅5 | 同比 | 1% | ， | ， | ， | , | . | . | 增幅17 | 本周国内石油沥青样本产能利用率为42 | 环比增加5 | 632个百分点 | 全国样 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report [2] - Report Date: October 9, 2025 [2] - Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The overall fundamentals of LLDPE are neutral, with the expected trend of PE being volatile today. The PP fundamentals are also neutral, and the PP is expected to fluctuate today [4][6] Summary by Content LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In September, the official PMI was 49.8, up 0.4 points from the previous month, with improved manufacturing sentiment but still in the contraction range. OPEC+ decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November, with limited support for the polyolefin cost side. The "Golden September and Silver October" peak season is nearing its end, with overall weak demand support. The current LLDPE delivery product spot price is 7,160 (+0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is 7, with a premium/discount ratio of 0.1%, which is neutral [4] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 429,000 tons (-8), which is neutral [4] - **Market**: The 20-day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20-day line, showing a bearish trend [4] - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, with an increase in short positions, indicating a bearish trend [4] - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract fluctuates, the crude oil price fluctuates, the agricultural film operation rate slightly increases but remains weaker than in previous years, and the industrial inventory is moderately high. It is expected that PE will fluctuate today [4] - **Leverage and Risks**: Positive factors include geopolitical instability and cost support; negative factors include weak demand year-on-year and many new projects in the fourth quarter. The main logic is cost and demand, driven by domestic macro policies [5] PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the macro situation shows improved manufacturing sentiment but still in the contraction range. The new production capacity of Ningbo Jinfa has been put into operation, with sufficient supply. The demand in the home appliance and real estate sectors is restricted by cautious expectations, and the overall demand support is weak. The current PP delivery product spot price is 6,780 (+0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [6] - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is -72, with a premium/discount ratio of -1.1%, showing a bearish trend [6] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 520,000 tons (-30,000), which is neutral [6] - **Market**: The 20-day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20-day line, showing a bearish trend [6] - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is short, with an increase in short positions, indicating a bearish trend [6] - **Expectation**: The PP main contract fluctuates, the crude oil price fluctuates, the new production capacity is put into operation, the average downstream operation rate remains stable, and the industrial inventory is moderately high. It is expected that PP will fluctuate today [6] - **Leverage and Risks**: Positive factors include geopolitical instability and cost support; negative factors include weak demand year-on-year and many new projects in the fourth quarter [7] Supply and Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the PE production capacity, output, and apparent consumption generally showed an upward trend, while the import dependence decreased year by year. The consumption growth rate fluctuated, with a decline in 2021 [14] - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the PP production capacity, output, and apparent consumption also showed an upward trend, and the import dependence decreased year by year. The consumption growth rate generally showed an upward trend [16]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铜早报- 大越期货投资咨询部 : 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 铜: 1、基本面：冶炼企业有减产动作，废铜政策有所放开，9月份，制造业生产活动加快，PMI升至49.8%， 景气水平继续改善；中性。 2、基差：现货83030，基差-80，贴水期货； 中性。 3、库存：10月8日铜库存减225至139200吨，上期所铜库存较上周减3745吨至95034吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线上，20均线向上运行；偏多。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，多增；偏多。 6、预期：库存回升，地缘扰动仍存印尼的Grasberg Block Cave矿事件发酵，铜价维持强势 近期利多利空分析 利多： 利空： 逻辑： 全球政策宽松 和 贸易战升级 风险： 自然灾害 1、俄乌,伊以地缘政治扰动。 2、美联储 ...

证券代码：839979 油脂早报 2025-10-09投资咨询部 分析师: 王明伟 从业资格号： F0283029 投资咨询号： Z0010442 TEL: 0575-85226759 中美及中加关系缓和宏观层面影响市场。棕榈油P2601：9100-9500附近区间震荡 每日观点 豆油 1.基本面：MPOB报告显示，MPOB月报显示马棕8月产量环比减少9.8%至162万吨，出口环比减少14.74%至 149万吨，月末库存环比减少2.6%至183万吨。报告中性，减产不及预期。目前船调机构显示本月目前马 棕出口数据环比增加4%，后续进入增产季，棕榈油供应上有所增加。中性 2.基差：豆油现货8250，基差110，现货升水期货。偏多 3.库存：8月22日豆油商业库存118万吨，前116万吨，环比+2万吨，同比+11.7% 。偏空 4.盘面：期价运行在20日均线下，20日均线朝下。偏空 5.主力持仓：豆油主力多增。偏多 6.预期：油脂价格震荡整理，国内基本面宽松，国内油脂供应稳定。受阿根廷关税政策影响，豆类及油 脂供应增加，油脂油料回调整体。马棕库存偏中性，需求有所好转，印尼B40促进国内消费，美豆油生柴 政策扶持生柴 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 每日观点 焦煤： 焦煤焦炭早报（2025-10-9） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 利 空：1.焦钢企业对原料煤采购放缓 2.钢材价格疲软 1、基本面：区域内部分煤矿已安排假期检修，煤矿产量略有下滑。随着下游节前补库临近尾声，下游 对部分高溢价资源采购相对谨慎，近日个别竞拍资源价格出现小幅回落，煤矿由于预售订单较多，场内 基本无库存，心态良好，部分煤矿价格仍有探涨现象；中性 2、基差：现货市场价1285，基差159；现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：钢厂库存805.8万吨，港口库存255.5万吨，独立焦企库存829.4万吨，总样本库存1890.7万吨， 较上周减少28.1万吨；偏多 4、盘面：20日线向上，价格在20日线下方；中性 5、主力持仓：焦煤主力净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：部 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of glass are weak, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term. The supply of glass has declined to a relatively low level in the same period, and there have been more disturbances on the supply side recently. However, the recovery of terminal demand is weak [2][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 1210 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.47%; the spot price of Shahe Safe large - sized glass was 1156 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.70%; the main basis was - 54 yuan/ton, a decrease of 32.50% [7]. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large - sized boards in the spot benchmark area of Hebei Shahe was 1156 yuan/ton, an increase of 8 yuan/ton compared with the previous day [12]. Fundamentals - Cost Side - The number of operating float glass production lines in the country was 225, with an operating rate of 76.01%, and the number of operating glass production lines was at a historical low in the same period. The daily melting volume of national float glass was 160,700 tons, with the production capacity at the lowest level in the same period in history and showing a stable recovery [23][25]. Fundamentals - Demand - In June 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.634 million tons [29]. Fundamentals - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises was 59.355 million weight boxes, a decrease of 2.55% compared with the previous week, and the inventory was running above the 5 - year average [44]. Fundamentals - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The annual supply - demand balance sheet of float glass from 2017 to 2024E shows changes in production, consumption, production growth rate, consumption growth rate, and net import ratio. For example, in 2024E, the production was 55.1 million tons, the consumption was 53.1 million tons, the production growth rate was 3.94%, and the consumption growth rate was - 1.15% [45]. Influencing Factors - **Likely to be Bullish**: Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, there is an expectation of capacity clearance in the float glass industry. The "coal - to - gas" conversion of some production lines in the Shahe area has increased supply - side disturbances [4]. - **Likely to be Bearish**: The terminal demand in the real estate sector remains weak, and the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low in the same period. The capital collection in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly digesting the inventory of raw glass [5].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 白糖早报——2025年10月9日 1、基本面：Czarnikow:上调25/26年度全球食糖过剩预期至740万吨，比8月份预估高出120万吨。 StoneX:预计25/26年度全球糖市供应过剩277万吨。ISO:预计25/26年度全球食糖供应缺口为23.1 万吨，比之前预计缺口大幅减少。2025年8月底，24/25年度本期制糖全国累计产糖1116.21万吨； 全国累计销糖1000万吨；销糖率89.6%。2025年8月中国进口食糖83万吨，同比增加6万吨；7月份 进口糖浆及预混粉等三项合计15.98万吨，同比减少6.85万吨。偏空。 2、基差：柳州现货5890，基差397（01合约），升水期货；偏多。 3、库存：截至8月底24/25榨季工业库存116万吨；中性。 4、盘面：20日均线向下，k线在20日均线下方，偏空。 5、主力持仓：持仓偏空，净持仓空减，主力趋势不明朗，偏空。 6、预期：十一长假，外盘小幅上涨。近期两个台风接连影响广西南部甘蔗产区，强风可使甘蔗倒 伏，强降雨可使甘蔗田积水，后续关注减产情况。节后郑糖开盘预计延续弱势反弹走势。 利多：国内消费较好， ...