Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - Last week, crude oil showed a trend of first falling and then rising, and fuel oil prices also followed the same pattern. High-sulfur fuel oil closed at 2,415 yuan/ton, up 0.42% for the week, while low-sulfur fuel oil closed at 2,932 yuan/ton, down 2.01% for the week [3]. - Due to poor arbitrage economics in the early stage, the arrival volume of low-sulfur fuel oil from the Western market in December is expected to decline for the first time in three months, providing some support for the low-sulfur fuel oil market. However, recent chartering activities may cause the inflow of arbitrage goods to rebound again in January, and the Asian low-sulfur fuel oil market is expected to remain well-supplied throughout January and possibly extend to February. Although the ample immediate supply continues to drag down the Asian high-sulfur fuel oil market, the good downstream marine fuel demand provides some support for the market fundamentals [3]. - Despite the unfeasibility of East-West arbitrage due to high freight rates, the arbitrage arrival volume in Singapore from the Western market in December is expected to decrease. However, the significant inventory accumulation in November, combined with the considerable supply from the Middle East in recent weeks, will keep the Asian fuel oil market well-supplied throughout December and January. On the demand side, downstream marine bunkering activities are relatively stable. In addition, the decline in high-sulfur fuel oil cracking margins may boost the demand for high-sulfur fuel oil as raw materials from Asian refineries in the next few months. Attention should be paid to the impact of China's announced crude oil import quota for 2026 on raw material demand. In the short term, the prices of FU and LU will fluctuate repeatedly following oil prices. Attention should be paid to the potential boost from geopolitical events. Operationally, for high-sulfur fuel oil, short-term operations should be conducted in the range of 2,350 - 2,500 yuan/ton, and for low-sulfur fuel oil, short-term operations should be conducted in the range of 2,900 - 3,050 yuan/ton [4]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Weekly View - The price trends of crude oil and fuel oil last week were first falling and then rising. The prices and weekly changes of high-sulfur and low-sulfur fuel oil are given, and the supply and demand situations of high-sulfur and low-sulfur fuel oil in the Asian market are analyzed. The short-term price trends and operational suggestions for FU and LU are also provided [3][4]. 2. Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Prices**: The data of the previous and current values, price changes, and change amplitudes of the FU and LU main contracts are presented. The FU main contract decreased by 4 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.18%, and the LU main contract decreased by 86 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.84% [5]. - **Spot Prices**: The data of the previous and current values, price changes, and change amplitudes of high-sulfur and low-sulfur fuel oils in Zhoushan, Singapore, and the Middle East, as well as Singapore diesel, are provided. Among them, the prices of Zhoushan high-sulfur and low-sulfur fuel oils decreased, while the prices of Singapore high-sulfur and low-sulfur fuel oils, Middle East high-sulfur fuel oil, and Singapore diesel increased [6]. 3. Fundamental Data - **Consumption Data**: Line charts of Singapore fuel oil consumption, China fuel oil consumption, and Shandong fuel oil coking gross profit from 2021 - 2025 are presented, but specific numerical analysis is not provided [7][8][9]. 4. Inventory Data - **Singapore Fuel Oil Inventory**: The inventory and its changes from October 8 to December 17 are given. As of December 17, the inventory was 22.559 million barrels, an increase of 140,000 barrels [10]. - **Inventory Trends**: Line charts of Singapore inventory seasonal trends and Zhoushan Port fuel oil inventory trends are presented, but specific numerical analysis is not provided [11][12]. 5. Spread Data - A line chart of the high - low sulfur futures spread is presented, but specific numerical analysis is not provided [14].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花周报（12.15-12.19） 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 本周棉花主力05围绕14000关口震荡修整，周五夜盘再度站上14000关口上方，短期延续震荡 偏多思路，下游买涨不买跌的心理，后续会加速补库囤货。进一步带动棉花上涨预期。 2026新疆棉种植面积调控，预计可能减幅超10%。ICAC11月报：25/26年度产量2540万吨，消 费2500万吨。USDA11月报：25/26年度产量2614.5万吨，消费2588.3万吨，期末库存1653.2万 吨。海关：11月纺织品服装出口238.69亿美元，同比下降5.12%。11月份我国棉花进口12万吨， 同比增加9.4%；棉纱进口15万吨，同比增加25%。农村部12月25/26年度：产量670万吨，进口 140万吨，消费760万 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Sugar prices continued to hit new lows this week, with the 05 main contract approaching the 5000 mark. The decline is nearing its end, and there is a short - term oversold rebound possibility. The risk of short - selling at the current position has increased [4][5][8]. - There are both bullish and bearish factors in the sugar market. Bullish factors include increased syrup tariffs and the change in the US cola formula to use sucrose. Bearish factors are the increase in global sugar production, supply surplus in the new season, the opening of the import profit window due to the fall of foreign sugar prices below 15 cents per pound, and increased import impact [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review - Sugar prices continued to decline this week. The 05 main contract reached around the 5000 mark. Multiple institutions have different forecasts for the 25/26 global sugar supply surplus, with ISO predicting 163 million tons, DATAGRO reducing the forecast from 280 million tons to 100 million tons, Czarnikow increasing it to 740 million tons, and StoneX predicting 370 million tons. As of the end of October 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 25/26 season was 883,000 tons, cumulative sales were 91,600 tons, and the sales rate was 10.37%. In November 2025, China imported 440,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year decrease of 90,000 tons, and in October, the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 115,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 110,500 tons [4]. 3.2 Daily Tips - The sugar main 05 contract is accelerating towards the bottom, and the current position has a high risk of short - selling. After continuous decline, there may be a short - term oversold rebound [5][8]. 3.3 Today's Focus No information is provided for this part. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Bullish factors: The domestic sugar supply - demand balance shows a gap, which is decreasing in the medium - long term. The average domestic sugar spot sales price is around 5700 yuan/ton. Since January 2025, the import tariff of syrup has increased, close to the out - of - quota import tariff of raw sugar. Trump approved the modification of the cola formula, which is long - term bullish for sugar [8]. - Bearish factors: Multiple institutions predict a supply surplus in the 25/26 global sugar market. Green Pool predicts that the global sugar production will increase by 5.3% in the 25/26 season, reaching 199.1 million tons. USDA predicts that the global sugar production will increase by 4.7% and consumption will increase by 1.4% in the 25/26 season, with a surplus of 11.397 million tons [8]. - Supply - demand data: The supply - demand situation of the 25/26 season is predicted by different institutions. StoneX predicts a surplus of 3.7 million tons due to increased production in Brazil, India, and Thailand and weak global consumption growth. ISO predicts a surplus of 1.63 million tons as global sugar production is expected to increase by 3.15% while consumption only increases by 0.6%. Datagro predicts a surplus of 1.53 million tons as the global supply is expected to shift from shortage to surplus [32]. - Production - related data: From 2023/24 to 2025/26, the sown and harvested areas of sugar crops, yields per hectare, and sugar production are presented. In 2025/26, the sown and harvested areas of sugar crops are 1.439 million hectares, the yield per hectare is 59.7 tons, and the sugar production is 11.7 million tons. The import volume is predicted to be 5 million tons, consumption is 15.7 million tons, and the balance change is an increase of 820,000 tons. The international sugar price is expected to be between 14.0 - 18.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be between 5500 - 6000 yuan/ton [34]. 3.5 Position Data No information is provided for this part.

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal RM2605 is expected to oscillate within the range of 2300 - 2360. The market has returned to a state of oscillation, awaiting the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The spot demand for rapeseed meal has entered the off - season, and the low inventory supports the market. The short - term market is affected by soybean meal and will maintain an oscillating pattern. The final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed still has variables, and the domestic rapeseed meal has entered the off - season of supply and demand, so it will maintain an oscillating pattern in the short term [9]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Daily Prompt - Rapeseed meal futures oscillate and decline, and the spot price fluctuates accordingly. The spot premium remains at a relatively high level. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuates slightly, and the price difference of the 2605 contract narrows slightly. The arrival of imported rapeseed increases slightly in December, and the import cost is affected by tariffs. The rapeseed inventory of oil mills remains low, and the rapeseed meal inventory is also at a low level. The rapeseed crushing volume of oil mills remains at zero [18][20][23][25][27]. 2. Recent News - The domestic aquaculture industry has entered the off - season after the long holiday. The spot market supply is expected to be tight in the short term, and the weakening demand suppresses the market. Canadian rapeseed has entered the harvesting stage, but Sino - Canadian trade issues have reduced short - term exports and the domestic supply is expected to decrease. China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports has found it to be established, and a 75.8% import deposit has been imposed. The final ruling result is still variable. Global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially in Canada. The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and the decrease in Ukrainian rapeseed production and the increase in Russian rapeseed production offset each other. Global geopolitical conflicts may still intensify, which provides support for commodities [11]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination and imposition of import deposits on Canadian rapeseed; the rapeseed meal inventory of oil mills has no pressure. Bearish factors: the domestic demand for rapeseed meal has entered the off - season; the final result of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports still has variables, with a small probability of reconciliation. The current main logic is that the market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [12]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Trading Data**: From December 11th to 19th, the average trading price of soybean meal fluctuated between 3102 - 3138 yuan/ton, and the trading volume fluctuated between 3.55 - 17.5 tons. The average trading price of rapeseed meal fluctuated between 2490 - 2520 yuan/ton, and the trading volume was mostly 0, with only 0.1 tons on December 15th. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated between 610 - 631 yuan/ton [13]. - **Futures and Spot Price**: From December 11th to 19th, the price of the near - month 2601 rapeseed meal futures fluctuated between 2389 - 2419 yuan/ton, and the price of the main 2605 contract fluctuated between 2323 - 2359 yuan/ton. The spot price of rapeseed meal (in Fujian) fluctuated between 2490 - 2520 yuan/ton [15]. - **Warehouse Receipt Statistics**: From December 10th to 19th, the rapeseed meal warehouse receipts were all 0 [17]. - **Aquatic Product Data**: The price of aquatic fish has declined slightly, while the price of shrimp and shellfish has remained stable [35]. 5. Position Data - Not provided in the text

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - The soybean market in the US is affected by the implementation of the Sino-US trade agreement and the weather in South American soybean - growing regions. The short - term trend is volatile, and the price is under pressure from the good weather in South American growing regions and the uncertainty of China's soybean purchases [10][11]. - The domestic soybean market is influenced by factors such as the cost of imported soybeans, the supply of domestic soybeans, and the Sino - US trade agreement. It shows a narrow - range volatile pattern, with the price supported by the cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic demand, but suppressed by the increase in US soybean purchases and the increase in domestic soybean production [11]. - The domestic soybean meal market is affected by the price of US soybeans, the supply of imported soybeans, and domestic demand. It is in a volatile pattern, with short - term demand improving but the inventory still at a relatively high level [10]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Weekly Tips No relevant information provided. 2. Recent News - The preliminary Sino - US tariff negotiation agreement is short - term positive for US soybeans, but the quantity of China's soybean purchases and the US soybean weather are still uncertain. The US soybean futures are volatile above the 1000 - point mark, waiting for further guidance on US soybean growth, harvest, and the follow - up of the Sino - US trade negotiation [13]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China decreased in December, while the soybean inventory of oil mills remained at a relatively high level. The weather in South American soybean - growing regions is normal, and soybean meal has returned to a range - bound pattern [13]. - The reduction in domestic pig - breeding profits has led to a low expectation of pig replenishment. The demand for soybean meal rebounded at a low level in December, which supported the price of soybean meal. The price is affected by the US soybean price and the rebound in demand and has returned to a range - bound pattern [13]. - The soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills remains at a relatively high level. There is still a possibility of speculation on the weather in the US soybean - growing regions, and the preliminary Sino - US trade negotiation agreement has an impact. Soybean meal will maintain a range - bound pattern in the short term, waiting for the clear US soybean yield and the follow - up of the Sino - US trade negotiation [13]. 3. Long and Short Concerns Soybean Meal - **Positive factors**: The preliminary Sino - US trade negotiation agreement is short - term positive for US soybeans; the soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills has no pressure; there are still uncertainties in the weather in the US and South American soybean - growing regions [14]. - **Negative factors**: The total arrival volume of imported soybeans in China remained at a relatively high level in December; Brazilian soybeans have started to be planted, and under normal weather conditions, South American soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest [15]. Soybeans - **Positive factors**: The increase in the cost of imported soybeans supports the domestic soybean market; the expected increase in domestic demand for domestic soybeans supports the domestic soybean price [16]. - **Negative factors**: The preliminary Sino - US trade negotiation agreement leads to an increase in China's soybean purchases from the US; the increase in the output of new - season domestic soybeans suppresses the price expectation of soybeans [16]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Global soybean supply - demand balance sheet**: From 2015 to 2024, the global soybean harvest area, output, and total supply showed an overall upward trend, and the ending inventory and inventory - to - consumption ratio also fluctuated [22]. - **USDA's monthly supply - demand report in the past six months**: From May 2025 to December 2025, the planting area, yield per unit, and output of US soybeans changed slightly, and the ending inventory also fluctuated [23]. - **US soybean planting, growth, and harvesting progress in 2024**: The sowing, emergence, flowering, pod - setting, leaf - falling, and harvesting progress of US soybeans in 2024 were compared with those of the previous year and the five - year average [24][25][26]. - **Brazilian and Argentine soybean planting progress**: The planting progress of Brazilian soybeans in the 2024/25 and 2025/26 seasons and the planting progress of Argentine soybeans in the 2024/25 and 2025/26 seasons were presented [27][29][30][31]. - **Domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheet**: From 2015 to 2024, the domestic soybean harvest area, output, import volume, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio showed different trends [37]. - **Arrival volume of imported soybeans**: The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China from 2020 to 2025 showed monthly fluctuations, and the arrival volume in December 2025 increased slightly compared with previous months [38]. 5. Position Data No relevant information provided. 6. Soybean and Soybean Meal Fundamentals (Supply - Demand Inventory Structure) 1. US Soybean Market Analysis - The impact of the December USDA report is relatively neutral. The short - term trend of US soybeans is weakly volatile due to the uncertainty of the implementation of the Sino - US trade negotiation agreement. The bumper harvest of US soybeans and the good planting weather of Brazilian soybeans suppress the market. In general, the short - term weather variables in the Brazilian soybean - growing regions and the follow - up progress of the Sino - US trade agreement will affect the market [35]. - The expectation of the US Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in December is maintained, which is short - term positive for commodities. The US soybean futures market is volatile in the short term, and the planting weather of South American soybeans and the follow - up implementation of the Sino - US trade negotiation agreement are still the biggest driving forces for the short - and medium - term trends of the market [35]. 2. Domestic Soybean Meal Industry Chain - **Arrival of imported soybeans**: The arrival volume of imported soybeans in December increased slightly, and the year - on - year overall showed an increase [38]. - **Oil mill crushing and inventory**: The soybean inventory of oil mills remained at a high level, and the soybean meal inventory decreased from a high level. The soybean crushing volume of oil mills remained at a relatively high level, and the soybean meal production in October increased year - on - year [39][41]. - **Soybean meal transaction**: The downstream long - term stocking enthusiasm rebounded, and the market transaction is expected to rebound from a low level [9]. - **Pig - breeding inventory**: The pig inventory showed an upward trend, the sow inventory was flat year - on - year and decreased slightly month - on - month. The pig price fluctuated slightly recently, and the piglet price remained weak [48][50]. 3. Downstream Demand Analysis - The demand for soybean meal rebounded at a low level in December, which was affected by the improvement in domestic pig - breeding demand, but the overall price was still determined by the supply side [57]. 7. Meal Market Structure - **Soybean meal basis analysis**: The soybean meal futures were weakly volatile, the spot price was relatively stable, and the spot premium decreased slightly [60]. - **Soybean meal and rapeseed meal price difference**: The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly, and the price difference between the 2605 contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal narrowed slightly [62]. 8. Technical Analysis Soybean - The soybean futures were weakly volatile, affected by the interaction between the US soybean price and the relatively stable domestic soybean spot price [67]. - The KDJ indicator dropped to a low level, and the short - term technical indicators entered a consolidation phase. The low - level indicator limited the further decline space, and it was necessary to wait for new guidance on whether it would continue to decline or rebound [67]. - The MACD oscillated and declined in the middle position, and the short - term entered a technical consolidation phase. The green energy narrowed, and it remained to be seen whether the adjustment could continue. The soybean futures returned to a range - bound pattern, waiting for new guidance [67]. Soybean Meal - The soybean meal futures oscillated and declined, affected by the expected bumper harvest of South American soybeans, the uncertainty of the implementation of the Sino - US trade agreement, and the short - term weak domestic demand [70]. - The KDJ indicator oscillated at a low level, and the short - term entered a technical adjustment phase. The low - level indicator limited the further decline space, and it was necessary to wait for new guidance on whether it would continue to decline or rebound [70]. - The MACD oscillated and declined, and the short - term entered a technical adjustment and consolidation phase. The green energy narrowed, and it remained to be seen whether it could continue to decline. The soybean meal futures returned to a volatile pattern recently, waiting for the US soybean price and new guidance [70].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The report presents views on both the soybean and soybean meal markets. For soybean meal M2605, it is expected to oscillate between 2720 and 2780. The market is influenced by factors such as the US soybean's movement, China's soybean procurement, and South American soybean planting weather. The short - term outlook is for a weakening oscillation. For soybean A2605, it is expected to fluctuate between 4040 and 4140, with the market affected by similar factors and also by the domestic soybean's rotation storage and the cost - performance advantage of domestic soybeans compared to imported ones [9][11]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints - Soybean meal M2605 is expected to oscillate between 2720 and 2780, and soybean A2605 between 4040 and 4140 [9][11]. 2. Recent News - The preliminary agreement on Sino - US tariff negotiations is a short - term positive for US soybeans, but the quantity of China's soybean purchases and US soybean weather remain uncertain. The US soybean market is expected to oscillate strongly above the 1000 - point mark in the short term. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China decreased in December, while the inventory of soybeans at oil mills remained high. South American soybean planting and growth weather is relatively normal, and soybean meal has returned to an oscillating range. - The decrease in domestic pig - farming profits has led to low expectations for pig restocking. The demand for soybean meal has rebounded from a low level in December, supporting the price of soybean meal. The interaction between the influence of US soybeans and the rebound in soybean meal demand has led to an oscillating pattern [13]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: The preliminary Sino - US trade negotiation agreement is a short - term positive for US soybeans; there is no pressure on the inventory of soybean meal at domestic oil mills; there are still uncertainties in the weather of US and South American soybean - producing areas [14]. - Bearish factors: The total arrival volume of imported soybeans in December remained high; with normal weather, South American soybeans are expected to have a good harvest [15]. Soybeans - Bullish factors: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market; the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports the price of domestic soybeans [16]. - Bearish factors: Brazilian soybeans are expected to have a good harvest, and China has increased its purchases of Brazilian soybeans; the increase in the output of new - season domestic soybeans suppresses the price expectations of beans [16]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Transaction Data**: From December 11th to 19th, the average transaction price of soybean meal fluctuated between 3102 - 3138 yuan/ton, and the trading volume ranged from 3.55 - 17.5 million tons. The average transaction price of rapeseed meal was between 2490 - 2520 yuan/ton, and the trading volume was mostly 0, with only 0.1 million tons on December 15th. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated between 610 - 631 yuan/ton [17]. - **Soybean and Meal Futures and Spot Price Data**: From December 12th to 19th, the prices of soybean futures and soybean meal futures generally showed a downward trend, while the spot prices of soybeans and soybean meal were relatively stable, with the spot price of soybean meal showing a slight downward trend [19]. - **Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipt Data**: From December 10th to 19th, the number of soybean No.1 warehouse receipts decreased from 16664 to 16673, the number of soybean No.2 warehouse receipts decreased from 7100 to 2900, and the number of soybean meal warehouse receipts increased from 23830 to 24830 [21]. - **Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets**: The global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets show the changes in factors such as harvest area, output, consumption, and inventory over the years [32][33]. - **Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress**: The report provides the planting and harvest progress of soybeans in Argentina, the US, and Brazil from 2023 - 2026, including data on planting rate, harvest rate, emergence rate, and excellent - good rate [34][35][36][37][38][39][40][41][42][43]. - **USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Reports**: The USDA's monthly supply - demand reports from May to December 2025 show the changes in factors such as planting area, yield per unit, output, and ending inventory of US soybeans, as well as the output of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans [44]. 5. Position Data - For both soybean meal M2605 and soybean A2605, the short positions of the main players decreased, and funds flowed out [9][11]. Other Market Conditions - The export inspection volume of US soybeans decreased both week - on - week and year - on - year [45]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans increased slightly in December, with an overall year - on - year increase [47]. - The inventory of soybeans at oil mills remained high, while the inventory of soybean meal decreased from a high level [48]. - The unfulfilled contracts of oil mills rebounded to a high level, indicating an increase in stocking demand [50]. - The soybean crushing volume of oil mills remained at a relatively high level, and the output of soybean meal in October increased year - on - year [52]. - The import cost of Brazilian soybeans decreased following the oscillation of US soybeans, and the margin on the disk fluctuated slightly [53]. - The pig inventory continued to rise, the sow inventory was flat year - on - year and decreased slightly month - on - month [55]. - The pig price fluctuated slightly recently, and the piglet price remained weak [57]. - The proportion of large pigs in China increased, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs fluctuated slightly [59]. - The domestic pig - farming profit fluctuated slightly [61].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花早报——2025年12月22日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 棉花： 1、基本面：2026新疆棉种植面积调控，预计可能减幅超10%。ICAC11月报：25/26年度产量 2540万吨，消费2500万吨。USDA11月报：25/26年度产量2614.5万吨，消费2588.3万吨，期末 库存1653.2万吨。海关：11月纺织品服装出口238.69亿美元，同比下降5.12%。11月份我国棉 花进口12万吨，同比增加9.4%；棉纱进口15万吨，同比增加25%。农村部12月25/26年度：产 量670万吨，进口140万吨，消费760万吨，期末库存835万吨。偏多。 2、基差：现货3128 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The sugar market in the 2025/26 season is expected to have a global supply surplus, with different institutions having varying estimates of the surplus volume [4][9]. - The current downward trend of the sugar main contract 05 is approaching the end, and there is an increased risk of short - selling at the current position. After continuous declines, there may be a short - term oversold rebound [5][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review No content related to the previous day's review is provided. 3.2 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the global sugar supply surplus in the 2025/26 season. ISO predicts a surplus of 163 tons, DATAGRO reduces the surplus forecast from 280 tons to 100 tons, Czarnikow raises it to 740 tons, and StoneX predicts a surplus of 370 tons. As of the end of October 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 2025/26 season in China was 883,000 tons, the cumulative sugar sales were 91,600 tons, and the sales rate was 10.37%. In November 2025, China imported 440,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year decrease of 90,000 tons; in October, the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 115,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 110,500 tons [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price in Liuzhou is 5,370 yuan, and the basis for the 05 contract is 282 yuan, showing a premium over the futures, which is bullish [6]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of October, the industrial inventory in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season was 791,400 tons, which is bearish [6]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [6]. - **Main Position**: The net short position is decreasing, and the main trend is unclear, which is bearish [6]. - **Leverage Factors**: Bullish factors include an increase in syrup tariffs and the change in the US cola formula to use sucrose. Bearish factors include an increase in global sugar production, a supply surplus in the new season, a drop in foreign sugar prices below 15 cents per pound, and an increase in import pressure due to the opening of the import profit window [7]. 3.3 Today's Focus No content related to today's focus is provided. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Supply - Demand Forecast**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the global sugar supply - demand balance in the 2025/26 season. StoneX predicts a surplus of 3.7 million tons due to increased production in Brazil, India, and Thailand and weak global consumption growth; ISO predicts a surplus of 163,000 tons because global sugar production is expected to increase by 3.15% while consumption only increases by 0.6%; Datagro predicts a surplus of 153,000 tons as the global supply is expected to shift from shortage to surplus [33]. - **Domestic Sugar Market Data**: From 2023/24 to 2025/26, the sugar - cane and sugar - beet planting areas, yields, and sugar production in China are expected to change. The import volume in 2025/26 is expected to be 5 million tons, consumption is expected to be 15.7 million tons, and the balance change is expected to be 820,000 tons. The international sugar price is expected to be between 14.0 - 18.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be between 5,500 - 6,000 yuan per ton [35]. - **Import Cost**: In late October 2025, the average price of raw sugar was about 14.23 cents per pound, and the cost of out - of - quota imported raw sugar after processing and tax payment (50% tariff) was about 5,086 yuan per ton, with good import profits due to the continuous decline in international sugar prices [38]. 3.5 Position Data No content related to position data is provided.

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沥青期货早报 2025年12月22日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 2、基差: 12月19日，山东现货价2910元/吨，02合约基差为1元/吨，现货升水期货。 中性。 3、库存: 社会库存为71.4万吨，环比减少0.97%，厂内库存为59.4万吨，环比增加0.51%，港口稀释沥青库存为库存为27 万吨，环比减少42.55%。社会库存持续去库，厂内库存持续累库，港口库存持续去库。 中性。 4、盘面: MA20向下，02合约期价收于MA20下方。 偏空。 5、主力持仓: 主力持仓净空，空增。 偏空。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，根据隆众，2025年12月份沥青总计划排产量为215.8万吨，环比降幅3.24%。本周国内石油沥青样 本产能利用率为 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is in a state of tight supply - demand balance, with sentiment fluctuations triggered by news. The main logic is the tight supply - demand balance and emotional swings caused by news. The main bullish factors are the production cut plans of lithium mica manufacturers and the decline in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile. The main bearish factor is the continuous high supply at the ore/salt lake end with limited decline. The expected price of lithium carbonate 2605 will fluctuate in the range of 107,660 - 111,780 [8][9][10][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 21,998 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.26%, higher than the historical average. It is predicted that the production in December 2025 will be 98,210 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.00% [8]. - **Demand**: Last week, the inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate was 103,658 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.02%, and the inventory of sample enterprises of ternary materials was 18,524 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.68%. It is expected that the demand will strengthen next month, and the inventory may be reduced [8]. - **Cost**: The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrates is 104,486 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.38%, resulting in a loss of - 8,298 yuan/ton. The cost of purchased lithium mica is 99,792 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.93%, resulting in a loss of - 6,028 yuan/ton. The production cost at the recycling end is generally higher than that at the ore end, with negative production income and low production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost at the salt lake end is 31,477 yuan/ton, significantly lower than that at the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [8]. - **Basis**: On December 19, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 97,550 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was - 13,850 yuan/ton, indicating a spot discount to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: The smelter inventory was 18,090 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.58%, lower than the historical average. The downstream inventory was 41,485 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.93%, higher than the historical average. Other inventories were 50,850 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.58%, higher than the historical average. The total inventory was 110,425 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.93%, higher than the historical average [8]. - **Market**: The MA20 of the market is upward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed above the MA20 [8]. - **Main Position**: The net short position of the main position decreased [8]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Market Overview**: The prices of most lithium - related products showed an upward trend. For example, the price of lithium spodumene (6%) increased by 0.45%, and the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.52% [14]. - **Supply - Demand Data**: The supply - side data shows that the weekly operating rate was 83.52%, remaining unchanged. The monthly production of lithium carbonate was 95,350 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.35%. The monthly import volume of lithium carbonate was 23,880.69 tons, a year - on - year increase of 21.86%. The demand - side data shows that the monthly production of lithium iron phosphate was 412,850 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.69%, and the monthly export volume was 5,476,869 kg, a year - on - year increase of 77.13% [18]. 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore - **Price and Production**: The price of lithium ore has fluctuated over the years. The production of lithium spodumene mines in China has shown an upward trend in recent years, and the total production of domestic lithium mica has also increased [25]. - **Import and Self - Sufficiency Rate**: The monthly import volume of lithium concentrates has increased, and the self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore has also changed over time [25]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of domestic lithium ore has fluctuated. In some months, there was a supply surplus, while in others, there was a shortage [28]. 3.4 Supply - Lithium Carbonate - **Operating Rate and Production**: The weekly operating rate of lithium carbonate has fluctuated, and the production has shown an upward trend in general. The production is mainly from lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt lakes, and recycling materials [31]. - **Import**: The monthly import volume of lithium carbonate has increased, and the main import sources are Chile and Argentina [31]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate has fluctuated. In some months, there was a supply surplus, while in others, there was a shortage [37]. 3.5 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - **Capacity Utilization and Production**: The weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic lithium hydroxide has fluctuated, and the production has increased. The production comes from the smelting and causticizing ends [40]. - **Export**: The export volume of lithium hydroxide has increased over the years [40]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide has fluctuated. In some months, there was a supply surplus, while in others, there was a shortage [43]. 3.6 Lithium Compound Cost and Profit - **Cost and Profit of Purchased Raw Materials**: The cost and profit of purchased lithium spodumene concentrates, lithium mica concentrates, and recycled materials for lithium carbonate production have fluctuated. Generally, there have been losses in some cases [46][48]. - **Processing Cost and Profit**: The processing cost and profit of lithium compounds such as lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide have also changed over time [46][48][51]. 3.7 Inventory - **Lithium Carbonate Inventory**: The weekly and monthly inventories of lithium carbonate have fluctuated. The inventories of smelters, downstream, and other parties have different trends [53]. - **Lithium Hydroxide Inventory**: The monthly inventory of lithium hydroxide has also changed, with different trends for smelters and downstream [53]. 3.8 Demand - Lithium Battery - **Battery Price and Loading Volume**: The price of lithium batteries has fluctuated, and the monthly loading volume of power batteries has increased [57]. - **Export**: The export volume of lithium batteries has increased over the years [57]. 3.9 Demand - Ternary Precursor - **Price and Cost - Profit**: The price of ternary precursors has fluctuated, and the cost - profit situation has also changed. The capacity utilization rate has fluctuated, and the production has increased [66]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of ternary precursors has fluctuated. In some months, there was a supply surplus, while in others, there was a shortage [69]. 3.10 Demand - Ternary Material - **Price and Cost - Profit**: The price of ternary materials has fluctuated, and the cost - profit situation has also changed. The weekly operating rate has fluctuated, and the production has increased [72]. - **Export and Import**: The export and import volumes of ternary materials have changed over time [74]. 3.11 Demand - Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium - **Price and Cost - Profit**: The price of iron phosphate/iron phosphate lithium has fluctuated, and the cost - profit situation has also changed. The monthly operating rates of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium have fluctuated, and the production has increased [76]. - **Export**: The monthly export volume of iron phosphate lithium has increased over the years [79]. 3.12 Demand - New Energy Vehicle - **Production, Sales, and Export**: The production, sales, and export volumes of new energy vehicles have increased over the years. The sales penetration rate has also increased [84]. - **Retail - Wholesale Ratio and Inventory Index**: The retail - wholesale ratios of hybrid and pure - electric vehicles have changed, and the inventory warning index and inventory index of dealers have also fluctuated [88].