交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2025年10月9日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 PTA： 6、预期：从成本端来看，供需过剩预期维持，但过剩压力体现仍需要时间，油价预计维持区间震荡。国内外短流程提负以及部 分装置推迟检修后带来的 PX 增量较为明显，而需求端在 PTA 效益大幅压缩后，新装置投产推迟以及检修明朗，对 PX 需求预 期存在进一步影响，PXN 预计偏弱表现，成本力度支撑一般。10 月英力士，恒力均有检修计划，且逸盛大化和海南尚未确定重 启时间，供应端开工率一般性，而从需求来看，随着 9 月下产销放量，聚酯工厂库存大幅下降有可能延缓聚酯降负预期，供需 面预计紧平衡状态。 1、基本面：国庆中秋假期期间，PTA市场整体呈现 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2025-10-9 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 尿素概述： • 1. 基本面：当前日产及开工率略有回落仍处于偏高位置，企业库存累积，甘肃、河北等多省 库存增加。需求端，工业及农业需求均偏弱，农需秋季用量零散，复合肥企业产能利用率低，未 大规模开工，处于需求真空期。出口内外价差较大，虽有第三批配额落地，对国内价格支撑有限。 国内尿素整体供过于求仍明显。交割品现货1740（+0），基本面整体偏空； • 2. 基差： UR2601合约基差70，升贴水比例4.0%，偏多； • 3. 库存：UR综合库存152.5万吨（+10.4），偏空； • 4. 盘面： UR主力合约20日均线向下，收盘价位于20日线下，偏空； • 5. 主力持仓：UR主力持仓净多，减多，偏多； • ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-09-30原油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 原油2511： 1.基本面：美国总统特朗普周一获得了以色列总理内塔尼亚胡对美国发起的加沙和平提议的支持，但 哈马斯是否会接受该计划仍是个问题；美国总统特朗普与民主党对手在白宫举行旨在避免政府停摆的 一场会议中，似乎没有取得什么进展；三位知情人士透露，OPEC+很可能在10月5日的会议上批准新一 轮原油产量上调，幅度至少为13.7万桶/日，该组织有意借此进一步夺回市场份额；偏空 2.基差：9月29日，阿曼原油现货价为69.48元/桶，卡塔尔海洋原油现货价为68.54元/桶，基差24.46元/ 桶，现货升水期货；偏多 3.库 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to fluctuate within the range of 2380 - 2440. The market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The short - term demand for rapeseed meal remains in the peak season, and low inventory supports the market, but after the National Day, demand will enter the off - season, and Sino - Canadian trade negotiations are still uncertain, so the market will be affected by news and remain volatile in the short term [9]. - The rapeseed meal was affected by the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed, and there are rumors of tariff cuts between China and Canada recently, so it has returned to a volatile pattern [9]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - The rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to fluctuate between 2380 and 2440. The fundamentals are neutral, the basis is positive, the inventory is decreasing and is bullish, the price is below the 20 - day moving average and bearish, the main short positions are increasing and bearish, and it is expected to remain volatile in the short term [9]. 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the peak season, the listing of domestic rapeseed has improved the expected tight supply in the spot market, and the demand side maintains a good expectation [11]. - China's preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports is established, and an import deposit of 75.8% has been imposed. The final ruling result is still uncertain [11]. - Global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially in Canada where the output is higher than expected [11]. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and there is still a possibility of an increase in global geopolitical conflicts, which still supports commodities [11]. 3. Long and Short Concerns - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and the low inventory pressure of oil mills [12]. - Bearish factors: The concentrated listing of domestic rapeseed and the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping result on Canadian rapeseed imports [12]. - The current main logic: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [12]. 4. Fundamental Data - From September 19th to 29th, the average transaction price of rapeseed meal was between 2500 - 2620 yuan, and the average transaction price of soybean meal was between 2968 - 3030 yuan. The average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was between 410 - 468 yuan [13]. - From September 19th to 29th, the price of rapeseed meal futures' main 2601 contract was between 2395 - 2528 yuan, the price of the far - month 2605 contract was between 2319 - 2387 yuan, and the spot price in Fujian was between 2500 - 2620 yuan [15]. - From September 17th to 29th, the rapeseed meal warehouse receipts decreased from 10104 to 9245 [16]. - Rapeseed meal futures rebounded after hitting the bottom, the spot price was relatively stable, and the spot premium fluctuated slightly [17]. - The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly, and the price difference of the 2601 contract fluctuated at a low level [19]. - The import volume of rapeseed remained stable in September, and the import cost was affected by tariffs [22]. - The inventory of oil mills' rapeseed continued to decline, and the weekly inventory of rapeseed meal remained flat [24]. - The amount of rapeseed crushed by oil mills decreased significantly [26]. - The price of aquaculture fish rebounded slightly, and the price of shrimp and shellfish remained stable [34]. 5. Position Data - No information provided 6. Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - The rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to fluctuate within the range of 2380 - 2440. The market is affected by the uncertainty of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports and the possible tariff cuts between China and Canada, and is expected to remain volatile in the short term [9].

CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-09-30甲醇早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 4 检修状况 甲醇2601： 1、基本面：临近长假交易逐步放淡，预计本周国内甲醇市场波动有限。内地方面，下游原料库存高位后期采购预期缩 量，且运力也缩紧，贸易商多离场观望。西北CTO工厂本周大量外采下，上游甲醇工厂库存不多，节前也无排库需求。 缺乏明显因素影响，预计节前内地甲醇清淡整理。港口方面，空头方面仍占上风，预计节前甲醇市场价格或维持震荡调 整；10月变量较大，重点是伊朗部分装置是否如期检修，装船量减量及港口库存去库的程度，基本面边际改善下，关注 港口市场炒作下的低多机会；中性 2、基差：江苏甲醇现货价为2275元/吨，01合约基差-84，现货 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of industrial silicon is increasing, with last week's supply at 93,000 tons, a 1.09% week - on - week increase. The demand is also rising, reaching 86,000 tons last week, a 7.50% week - on - week growth. However, the overall market situation is complex, with high inventories in multiple downstream sectors and varying profit and loss conditions [6]. - The supply of polysilicon increased slightly last week, with a production of 31,100 tons, a 0.32% week - on - week increase. The demand side shows a mixed picture, with some products in a loss state and others in profit. The overall demand is expected to be weak in the short - term but may rebound later [8]. - The main factors affecting the market include cost support, demand recovery after the holiday, and the supply - demand imbalance in the downstream polysilicon market. There are both positive and negative factors, and the market is expected to fluctuate within a certain range [10][11]. 3. Summaries According to the Catalog 3.1 Daily Views Industrial Silicon - **Fundamentals**: Supply increased, demand rose, and inventories in downstream sectors such as polysilicon, organic silicon, and alloy ingots were at high levels. Some production was in a loss state, and the comprehensive operating rate of organic silicon was lower than the historical average [6]. - **Basis**: The spot price of industrial silicon in East China was at a premium to the futures price, which is considered a positive factor [6]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory remained flat, while the sample enterprise inventory decreased. The inventory at major ports remained unchanged, presenting a mixed signal [6]. - **Disk**: The MA20 was upward, but the price of the 11 - contract closed below the MA20, showing a neutral situation [6]. - **Main Position**: The main position was net short, and the short position increased, indicating a negative factor [6]. - **Expectation**: The supply production schedule increased, demand recovery was at a low level, and cost support increased. The industrial silicon 2511 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,475 - 8,745 [6]. Polysilicon - **Fundamentals**: Supply increased slightly, and the demand side had different performance in various products. Some were in a loss state, and some were profitable. The overall demand was expected to decline in the short - term but may rebound later [8]. - **Basis**: The N - type dense material spot price was at a premium to the futures price, which is a positive factor [8]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory was at a high level, showing a neutral situation [8]. - **Disk**: The MA20 was downward, and the price of the 11 - contract closed below the MA20, indicating a negative factor [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position was net long, and the long position increased, suggesting a positive factor [8]. - **Expectation**: The supply production schedule decreased in the short - term and is expected to recover in the medium - term. The overall demand is expected to decline but may rebound later. The polysilicon 2511 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 50,340 - 52,220 [8]. 3.2 Market Overview Industrial Silicon - Futures prices of multiple contracts decreased, with the 01 - contract price dropping from 9,320 to 8,955, a 3.92% decline. Spot prices of some products remained unchanged, and there were changes in inventory and production data [14]. Polysilicon - Futures prices of some contracts decreased, and there were changes in the prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components. The inventory of polysilicon was at a high level, and the production and export of related products also had corresponding changes [16]. 3.3 Price and Basis Trends - Industrial silicon price - basis and delivery product spread trends showed the historical trends of the basis and the spread between different grades of silicon [18][19]. - Polysilicon disk price trends presented the price and trading volume trends of the main contract, as well as the basis trend [22][23]. 3.4 Inventory, Production, and Capacity Utilization - Industrial silicon inventory included social inventory, sample enterprise inventory, and inventory at major ports. The inventory situation varied, with some remaining flat and some decreasing [6][14]. - Industrial silicon production and capacity utilization trends showed the historical production and capacity utilization rates of sample enterprises and different grades of silicon [26][27][28]. - Polysilicon inventory was at a high level, and there were changes in the production and inventory of related products such as silicon wafers and battery cells [8][16]. 3.5 Cost and Supply - Demand Balance - Industrial silicon cost trends showed the cost and profit trends of different regions and grades of silicon [33][34]. - Industrial silicon supply - demand balance included weekly and monthly supply - demand balance tables, showing the production, import, export, and consumption of industrial silicon [35][36][38][39]. 3.6 Downstream Market Trends Organic Silicon - The price, production, and inventory trends of DMC, as well as the price trends of downstream products such as 107 glue, silicone oil, raw rubber, and D4, were presented. The production profit of organic silicon was in a loss state, and the inventory was at a high level [41][42][43][44][45]. Aluminum Alloy - The price, supply, inventory, and production trends of aluminum alloy were shown. There were changes in the price, cost, and profit of imported ADC12, and the production and inventory of different types of aluminum alloy ingots also had corresponding changes [51][52][54][55]. Polysilicon - The production, inventory, and price trends of polysilicon and its downstream products such as silicon wafers, battery cells, and components were analyzed. The profit and loss situation of different products varied, and the overall market situation was complex [8][16].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-09-30燃料油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 5 价差数据 库存数据 燃料油： 6、预期：燃料油市场整体呈现区间震荡格局，充足的库存水平可能抑制现货估值的任何大幅上涨，多数码头供 应商正积极出清9月装船及10月供应的月末剩余货物，而上游原油受地缘事件冲击再度下行，对燃油价格带来较 大压力，预计今日低位运行。FU2601：2820-2880区间运行，LU2511：3360-3420区间运行 1、基本面：尽管调油原料供应充足，但贸易商预计符合规格的含硫0.5%低硫燃料油在下游船燃供应领域不会出 现过剩情况。不过自9月初以来，低硫燃料油裂解价差持续表现疲弱；高硫燃料油市场可能面临9月末到10月 ...

大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 2025-09-30 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 5 持仓数据 ✸豆粕观点和策略 1.基本面：美豆震荡收跌，油脂回落带动和技术性震荡整理，美豆千点关口上方震荡等待中 美关税谈判后续和美国大豆产区收割天气进一步指引。国内豆粕震荡回落，短期技术性 震荡整理，九月进口大豆到港维持偏高位和现货价格贴水压制盘面预期，短期或回归震 荡格局。中性 2.基差：现货2880（华东），基差-53，贴水期货。偏空 3.库存：油厂豆粕库存116.44万吨，上周113.62万吨，环比增加2.48%，去年同期134.68万 吨，同比减少13.54%。偏多 4.盘面：价格在20日均线下方且方向向下。偏空 5.主力持仓：主力多单减少，资金流出，偏多 6.预期：美国大豆产区天气仍存变数支撑美豆盘面 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate is shifting towards demand - led. The price of lithium carbonate 2511 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 72,820 - 75,020. The main logic is that capacity mismatch leads to strong supply and weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change [9][13]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include manufacturers' production cut plans, a decline in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile, and a decrease in the import volume of spodumene. Negative factors are the persistently high supply at the ore/salt lake end with limited decline, and the insufficient willingness of the power battery end to take delivery [11][12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - Supply side: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 20,516 tons, a 0.75% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. In August 2025, the production was 85,240 physical tons, and the predicted production for next month is 86,730 tons, a 1.75% month - on - month increase. The import volume in August 2025 was 21,847 physical tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 19,500 tons, a 10.74% month - on - month decrease [8][9]. - Demand side: Last week, the inventory of sample lithium iron phosphate enterprises was 98,286 tons, a 2.15% week - on - week increase, and the inventory of sample ternary material enterprises was 17,896 tons, a 2.00% week - on - week increase. Next month's demand is expected to strengthen, and inventory may be reduced [8][9]. - Cost side: The CIF price of 6% concentrate increased on a daily basis, lower than the historical average. The cost of purchasing spodumene concentrate is 75,433 yuan/ton, a 0.02% daily increase, with a production loss of 2,953 yuan/ton; the cost of purchasing lithium mica is 78,729 yuan/ton, unchanged on a daily basis, with a production loss of 8,238 yuan/ton. The production cost at the recycling end is close to that at the ore end, with average production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost at the salt lake end is 31,745 yuan/ton, significantly lower than the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [9][10]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Market Prices**: The prices of various lithium - related products such as spodumene, lithium mica concentrate, lithium iron phosphate, and lithium hexafluorophosphate showed different degrees of changes. For example, the price of spodumene (6%) increased by 0.12% to 858 US dollars/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 0.07% to 73,550 yuan/ton [14]. - **Supply - side Data**: The monthly production, import volume, and开工率 of lithium carbonate, lithium ore, and lithium hydroxide showed different trends. For example, the monthly production of lithium carbonate in August 2025 was 85,240 tons, and the predicted production for next month is 86,730 tons; the monthly import volume of lithium carbonate in August 2025 was 21,847 tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 19,500 tons [9][19]. - **Demand - side Data**: The demand for lithium - related products in the fields of lithium batteries, new energy vehicles, etc. showed an upward trend. For example, the monthly total loading volume of power batteries in August 2025 was 62,500 GWh, a 11.81% increase from the previous month; the production and sales volume of new energy vehicles also increased [19]. - **Inventory Data**: The overall inventory of lithium carbonate decreased slightly, with a 0.51% week - on - week decrease to 136,825 tons. The inventory of smelters decreased by 2.79% to 33,492 tons, while the downstream inventory increased by 2.35% to 60,893 tons [10].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沥青期货早报 2025年9月30日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 | | 供给端来看 根据隆众 2025年8月份国内沥青总计划排产量为241 ， ， | . | 3万吨 环比降幅5 1% ， . , | 同比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 增幅17 1% 本周国内石油沥青样本产能利用率为42 0062% . 。 . | 环比增加5 ， | 632个百分点 . ， | 全国样 | | | 本企业出货31 26万吨 环比减少0 31% 样本企业产量为70 ， . . , | 1万吨 ， . | 环比增加15 49% 样本企业 . , | | | | 装置检修量预估为60 1万吨 环 ...