交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 玻璃早报 2025-10-10 每日观点 玻璃： 1、基本面：近期建材行业工作方案和沙河地区"煤改气"等反内卷、环保政策利好情绪有所升温， 供应端扰动因素较多；下游深加工订单整体偏弱，不及往年同期，地产终端需求疲弱；偏空 2、基差：浮法玻璃河北沙河大板现货1156元/吨，FG2601收盘价为1218元/吨，基差为-62元，期 货升水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国浮法玻璃企业库存6282.40万重量箱，较前一周增加5.84%，库存在5年均值上方运 行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线上方运行，20日线向上；偏多 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：玻璃基本面偏弱，短期预计震荡运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、"反内卷"政策影响下，浮法玻 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2025-10-10 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 纯碱： 1、基本面：碱厂检修量不及预期，远兴二期年前预期投产，整体供给处于高位；下游浮法玻璃 供给扰动较多，光伏日熔量延续下滑趋势，终端需求一般，纯碱厂库处于历史同期高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1165元/吨，SA2601收盘价为1250元/吨，基差为-85元，期货 升水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存165.98万吨，较前一周增加0.50%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面疲弱，短期预计震荡偏弱运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： | 日盘 | 主力合约收盘价 | 重质纯碱： ...

• LLDPE概述： 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 聚烯烃早报 2025-10-10 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，9月份，官方PMI为49.8，比上月上升0.4个百分点，制造业景气度有所 改善，但仍位于收缩区间。OPEC + 于 10 月 5 日决议 11 月增产 13.7 万桶 / 日，增幅低于 前期加速增产传言，中长期 "供增需减" 格局未改，对聚烯烃成本端支撑有限。供需端，装置 检修减少，负荷窄幅提升，产量有所增加，"金九银十" 旺季临近尾声，下游逐步转淡，农膜 开工略有提升，整体需求支撑偏弱。当前LL交割品现货价7080（-80），基本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2601合约基差3，升贴水比例0.0%，中性； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存54.3万吨（ ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪锌期货早报-2025年10月10日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85225791 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 指标体系 沪锌: 1、基本面：外媒9月17日消息：世界金属统计局（WBMS）公布最新数据显 示，2025年7月，全球锌板产量为115.15万吨,消费量为116.29万吨,供应短 缺1.13万吨.1-7月,全球锌板产量为794.52万吨,消费量为815.85万吨,供应 短缺21.33万吨.7月份,全球锌矿产量为106.56万吨.1-7月,全球锌矿产量为 734.37万吨；偏多。 2、基差：现货22180，基差+135；偏空。 3、库存：10月9日LME锌库存较上日增加0吨至38250吨，10月9日上期所锌 库存仓单较上日增加1646吨至58867吨；偏空。 4、盘面：昨日沪锌上涨走势，收20日均线之上,20日均 ...

指标体系 沪锌: 1、基本面：外媒9月17日消息：世界金属统计局（WBMS）公布最新数据显 示，2025年7月，全球锌板产量为115.15万吨,消费量为116.29万吨,供应短 缺1.13万吨.1-7月,全球锌板产量为794.52万吨,消费量为815.85万吨,供应 短缺21.33万吨.7月份,全球锌矿产量为106.56万吨.1-7月,全球锌矿产量为 734.37万吨；偏多。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪锌期货早报-2025年10月9日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85225791 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 2、基差：现货21880，基差+80；中性。 9月30日国内主要现货市场行情 3、库存：10月8日LME锌库存较上日增加50吨至38250吨，9月30日上期所锌 库存仓单较上日减少2043吨至57221吨；中性。 4、盘面：昨日沪锌震荡下 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 碳酸锂期货早报 2025年10月9日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，上周碳酸锂产量为20516吨，环比增长0.75%,高于历史同期平均水平。 需求端来看，上周磷酸铁锂样本企业库存为98286吨，环比增加2.15%,上周三元材料样本企业库存为 17896吨，环比增加2.00%。 3 成本端来看，外购锂辉石精矿成本为75407元/吨，日环比减少0.03%,生产所得为-2927元/吨，有所亏 损；外购锂云母成本为78268元/吨，日环比减少0.58%,生产所得为-7776元/吨，有所亏损；回收端生 产成本接近矿石端成本，排产积极性一般；盐湖端季度现金生产成本为31745元/吨，盐湖端成本显著 低于矿石端，盈利空间充 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PVC期货早报 2025年10月9日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 供给端来看，据隆众统计，2025年9月PVC产量为203.0766万吨，环比减少2.05%；本周样本企业产能利 用率为81.42%，环比增加0.03个百分点；电石法企业产量33.7665万吨，环比增加2.76%,乙烯法企业产 量14.061万吨，环比增加6.27%；本周供给压力有所增加；下周预计检修有所减少，预计排产少量增加 需求端来看，下游整体开工率为47.76%，环比减少1.5个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游型材开工率 为38.91%，环比减少0.52个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游管材开工率为40.43%，环比增加.3个百 分点，低于历史平均水平；下游薄膜开工 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic pig market is expected to see a decrease in both supply and demand this week. Pig prices are likely to be weak in the short - term, with a potential bottom - out and rebound in the medium - term, maintaining a volatile pattern. The LH2601 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 12,600 - 13,000 [10]. - The Chinese government's decision to impose additional tariffs on pork imports from the US and Canada has boosted market confidence. However, the domestic pig consumption market is affected by the approaching off - season. After the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day, the supply and demand of pigs have both decreased, and the spot price is expected to be weak in the short - term and maintain a range - bound oscillation in the medium - term [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - **Fundamentals**: After the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day, the supply of pigs and pork is expected to decrease this week. The domestic macro - environment shows some improvement, but consumer willingness has weakened after the holiday, suppressing short - term fresh pork consumption. The market is expected to have a double - decline in supply and demand, with pig prices being weak in the short - term and potentially bottoming out and rebounding in the medium - term [10]. - **Basis**: The national average spot price is 12,180 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 2601 contract is 645 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price [10]. - **Inventory**: As of June 30, the pig inventory was 424.47 million heads, a 0.4% month - on - month increase and a 2.2% year - on - year increase. As of the end of June, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.42 million heads, a 0.02% month - on - month increase and a 4.2% year - on - year increase [10]. - **Market Trend**: The price is below the 20 - day moving average and moving downward [10]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing [10]. - **Expectation**: In the near future, both supply and demand of pigs have started to decrease. Pig prices are expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern this week, with the LH2601 contract oscillating in the range of 12,600 - 13,000 [10]. 3.2 Recent News - China's additional tariffs on pork imports from the US and Canada have boosted market confidence. After the festivals, the supply and demand of pigs have decreased, and the spot price is expected to be weak in the short - term and maintain a range - bound oscillation in the medium - term [12]. - After the festivals, pork demand has weakened in the short - term, but the spot price has returned to a volatile state due to reduced supply. The room for further price decline may be limited, and it may show a bottom - out and rebound trend [12]. - The losses in pig farming profits have recently expanded, reducing the enthusiasm for large - pig slaughter in the short - term. The double - decline in supply and demand supports the short - term expectations of pig futures and spot prices [12]. - After the National Day, the pig spot price has remained stable, and the futures market has generally returned to a range - bound oscillation pattern. Further observation of supply and demand growth is needed [12]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish Factors**: The domestic pig supply has entered the off - season after the long holiday, and the room for further decline in the domestic pig spot price may be limited [13]. - **Bearish Factors**: The domestic macro - environment has a pessimistic expectation due to the China - US tariff war, and the domestic pig inventory has increased year - on - year [13]. - **Main Logic**: The market focuses on pig slaughter and fresh meat demand [13]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The report provides the prices of pig futures (near - month 2511, main 2601), pig futures warrants, and the spot prices of outer - ternary pigs in different regions from September 22 to September 30 [14]. - **Inventory Data**: As of March 31, the pig inventory was 408.5 million heads, a 5.9% month - on - month decrease and a 5.2% year - on - year decrease. As of the end of May 2024, the inventory of breeding sows was 39.96 million heads, a 0.2% month - on - month increase and a 6.2% year - on - year decrease [28]. 3.5 Position Data No specific position data is summarized in the report, only that the main position is net short and short positions are increasing [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The report provides viewpoints and strategies for both soybeans and soybean meal. The overall outlook for soybean meal is that it will return to a range - bound pattern in the short term, with the M2601 contract expected to oscillate between 2940 and 3000. The domestic soybean A2511 contract is expected to fluctuate between 3900 and 4000. Key factors influencing these trends include the weather in US soybean - producing areas, Sino - US tariff negotiations, the arrival volume of imported soybeans, and the supply - demand situation in the market [8][10] Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - Not provided in the given content 2. Recent News - Sino - US tariff negotiations are at a stalemate, causing short - term negative impacts on US soybeans. The US soybean market is oscillating above the 1000 - point mark, awaiting further guidance on soybean growth, harvest, and Sino - US tariff negotiations. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China remains high in October, and the inventory of soybean meal in oil mills has declined from a high level in October. The weather in US soybean - producing areas and Sino - US trade negotiations are in a critical period, and the September USDA report has a relatively neutral impact. - The reduction in domestic pig - farming profits has led to low expectations for pig restocking, weakening the demand for soybean meal in October and suppressing price expectations. However, the uncertainty of Sino - US trade negotiations still keeps the soybean meal market in a range - bound pattern. - The inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills continues to rise. There is still a possibility of speculation about the weather in US soybean - producing areas and uncertainties in the Sino - US tariff war. The soybean meal market will maintain an oscillating pattern in the short term, awaiting clarity on US soybean production and the follow - up of the Sino - US tariff war [12] 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory pressure of soybean meal in domestic oil mills, and uncertainties in the weather of US soybean - producing areas. - Bearish factors: high total arrival volume of imported soybeans in October, the harvest and listing of US soybeans, and continuous expectations of a bumper US soybean harvest. - Current main logic: The market focuses on the impact of US soybean harvest weather and the Sino - US trade tariff game [13] Soybeans - Bullish factors: the cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports price expectations. - Bearish factors: a bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in the output of new - season domestic soybeans suppressing price expectations. - Current main logic: The market focuses on the impact of US soybean weather and the Sino - US trade tariff game [14] 4. Fundamental Data - Soybean and soybean - meal futures and spot price summary: Data from September 22 to September 30 show the prices and trading volumes of soybean and soybean - meal futures and spot markets, and the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal [15][17] - Global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets: Provide data on the supply - demand balance of soybeans globally and in China from 2015 to 2024, including harvest area, initial inventory, output, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [31][32] - The sowing, growth, and harvest progress of soybeans in the US, Brazil, and Argentina: Show the sowing, growth, and harvest progress of soybeans in the US, Brazil, and Argentina in different time periods, including sowing rate, emergence rate, good - quality rate, flowering rate, pod - setting rate, defoliation rate, and harvest rate [33][34][35][36][37][38][39][40][41] - USDA's monthly supply - demand reports in the past six months: Provide data on planting area, yield per unit, output, ending inventory, new - bean exports, crushing volume, and the output of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans from March to September 2025 [42] - Other data: The weekly export inspection volume of US soybeans has declined both month - on - month and year - on - year. The arrival volume of imported soybeans reached a high in September and then declined, with an overall year - on - year increase. The inventory of soybeans in oil mills has declined from a high level, while the inventory of soybean meal continues to increase. The unfulfilled contracts of oil mills have declined from a high level, and the post - holiday stocking demand has decreased. The soybean crushing volume of oil mills remains high, and the soybean - meal output in July increased year - on - year. The import cost of Brazilian soybeans has decreased following the decline of US soybeans, and the margin on the futures market has fluctuated slightly [43][45][46][48][50][52] 5. Position Data - Not provided in the given content

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花早报——2025年10月9日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 棉花： 1、基本面：全国棉花产量预计722万吨，新疆再创新高。ICAC9月报：25/26年度产量2550万 吨，消费2550万吨。USDA9月报：25/26年度产量2562.2万吨，消费2587.2万吨，期末库存 1592.5万吨。海关：8月纺织品服装出口265.4亿美元，同比下降5%。8月份我国棉花进口7万 吨，同比减少51.6%；棉纱进口13万吨，同比增加18.18%。农村部9月25/26年度：产量636万 吨，进口140万吨，消费740万吨，期末库存822万吨。偏空。 2、基差：现货3128b全国均价14759， ...