交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2025年12月23日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 6、预期：近期PTA装置变动较少，供需格局预期尚可，期货盘面则跟随成本端大幅上行，预计短期内PTA现货价格跟随成本端震 荡运行，现货基差区间波动。关注油价走势及下游负荷。 2、基差：现货4882，05合约基差-158，盘面升水 中性 3、库存：PTA工厂库存3.76天，环比减少0.1天 偏多 4、盘面：20日均线向上，收盘价收于20日均线之上 偏多 MEG 每日观点 PTA 每日观点 PTA： 1、基本面：昨日PTA期货大幅收涨，现货市场商谈氛围一般，现货基差略有松动，个别主流供应商有出货。贸易商商谈为主， 12月货在01贴水15成交，略高在01贴 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 玻璃早报 2025-12-23 每日观点 玻璃： 1、基本面：生产利润修复乏力但供给收缩不及预期；地产拖累下游深加工订单偏弱，库存同期历 史高位；偏空 2、基差：浮法玻璃河北沙河大板现货944元/吨，FG2605收盘价为1031元/吨，基差为-87元，期货 升水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国浮法玻璃企业库存5855.80万重量箱，较前一周增加0.57%，库存在5年均值上方运 行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：玻璃基本面疲弱，短期预计震荡偏弱运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、沙河地区"煤改气" ，行业冷修，产量损失。 利空： 1、地产终端需求依然疲弱，玻璃深加工企业订单 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Grease Morning Report - Date: December 23, 2025 - Analyst: Wang Mingwei -从业资格号: F0283029 - Investment Consultation Number: Z0010442 - TEL: 0575 - 85226759 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The prices of edible oils are oscillating and consolidating, with a relatively loose domestic fundamental situation and stable domestic edible oil supply. Sino - US relations are stalemated, causing the export of new US soybeans to be frustrated and prices to be under pressure. Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, demand is improving, Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The domestic edible oil fundamental situation is neutral, and import inventory is stable [2][3][4] Summary by Category Daily Views Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that in August, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 9.8% month - on - month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% month - on - month to 1.49 million tons, and end - of - month inventory decreased by 2.6% month - on - month to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, with less - than - expected production cuts. Currently, shipping survey agencies show that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month - on - month. Subsequently, it will enter the production - reduction season, and the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease. [2] - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,144, with a basis of 372, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. [2] - **Inventory**: On September 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, 20,000 tons more than the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 11.7%. [2] - **Market**: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward. [2] - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have increased. [2] - **Expectation**: Soybean oil Y2605 is expected to oscillate in the range of 7,600 - 8,000. [2] Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is neutral with less - than - expected production cuts. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil has increased by 4% month - on - month. Subsequently, it will enter the production - increase season, and the supply of palm oil will increase. [3] - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 8,360, with a basis of 54, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. [3] - **Inventory**: On September 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, 10,000 tons more than the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 10,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 34.1%. [3] - **Market**: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward. [3] - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main palm oil contract have decreased. [3] - **Expectation**: Palm oil P2605 is expected to oscillate in the range of 8,300 - 8,700. [3] Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: Consistent with soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report is neutral with less - than - expected production cuts. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil has increased by 4% month - on - month. Subsequently, it will enter the production - increase season, and the supply of palm oil will increase. [4] - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9,393, with a basis of 529, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. [4] - **Inventory**: On September 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, 10,000 tons more than the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 10,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 3.2%. [4] - **Market**: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward. [4] - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have decreased. [4] - **Expectation**: Rapeseed oil OI2605 is expected to oscillate in the range of 8,700 - 9,100. [4] Recent利多利空Analysis - **利多**: The US soybean inventory - to - sales ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. [5] - **利空**: Edible oil prices are at a relatively high historical level, and domestic edible oil inventory is continuously accumulating. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related edible oils is high. [5] - **Main Logic**: The global edible oil fundamental situation is relatively loose. [5] Supply - **Imported Soybean Inventory**: Not detailed in the report, only mentioned [6] - **Soybean Oil Inventory**: On September 22, it was 1.18 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 11.7% [2] - **Soybean Meal Inventory**: Data charts are provided, showing inventory changes from 2015 - 2025 [9][10] - **Oil Mill Soybean Pressing**: Data charts are provided, showing changes from 2015 - 2025 [11][12] - **Palm Oil Inventory**: On September 22, it was 580,000 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 10,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 34.1% [3] - **Rapeseed Oil Inventory**: On September 22, it was 560,000 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 10,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 3.2% [4] - **Rapeseed Inventory**: Data charts are provided, showing inventory changes from 2015 - 2025 [21][22] - **Domestic Total Edible Oil Inventory**: Data charts are provided, showing the combined inventory changes of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oils in East China from 2015 - 2019 [23][24] Demand - **Soybean Oil Apparent Consumption**: Data charts are provided, showing consumption changes from 2015 - 2025 [13][14] - **Soybean Meal Apparent Consumption**: Data charts are provided, showing consumption changes from 2015 - 2025 [15][16]

Group 1: Report Core View - Copper's supply side is disturbed with smelting enterprises reducing production and scrap copper policy being liberalized. China's November manufacturing PMI is 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from last month, still in contraction but showing marginal improvement [2] - The spot price is 93755 with a basis of -575, indicating a discount to futures [2] - On December 22, copper inventory decreased by 2650 to 157750 tons, and SHFE copper inventory increased by 6416 tons to 95805 tons compared to last week [2] - The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average which is moving upwards [2] - The main net position is long, changing from short to long [2] - Geopolitical disturbances persist, and due to the fermentation of the Grasberg Block Cave mine incident in Indonesia, copper prices hit a new high and are expected to run at a high level in the short - term [2] Group 2: Recent利多利空Analysis - The logic involves global policy easing and trade - war escalation [3] Group 3: Market Conditions - Bonded area inventory has rebounded from a low level [13] - Processing fees have declined [15] - The supply - demand balance shows a slight surplus in 2024 and a tight balance in 2025 [19] - China's annual supply - demand balance table shows different production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance data from 2018 to 2024 [21]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term market of Shanghai Zinc futures may fluctuate repeatedly, but the contract ZN2602 is expected to strengthen in a fluctuating manner. The price is above the long - term moving average with strong support, with the short - term KDJ indicator rising in the weak area, the trend indicator falling, the dominance of bullish strength narrowing, and both bulls and bears increasing positions, with bulls increasing more [19]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Information - In September 2025, global refined zinc production was 1.1935 million tons, consumption was 1.2292 million tons, with a supply shortage of 35,700 tons. From January to September, global zinc plate production was 10.3632 million tons, consumption was 10.7369 million tons, with a supply shortage of 373,700 tons. In September, global zinc ore production was 1.1633 million tons, and from January to September, it was 9.9647 million tons [2]. Basis - The spot price was 23,330, and the basis was + 215 [2]. Inventory - On December 22, LME zinc inventory decreased by 650 tons to 99,250 tons compared to the previous day, and the SHFE zinc inventory warrant decreased by 2,588 tons to 42,590 tons [2]. Futures Market Quotes - On December 22, the trading volume of zinc futures on the exchange was 228,608 lots, with a turnover of 2.63755519 billion yuan. The total open interest was 195,110 lots, an increase of 1,508 lots [3]. Spot Market Quotes - On December 22, the price range of 0 zinc in Aoshi was 23,230 - 23,330 yuan/ton, in Guangdong was 22,970 - 23,070 yuan/ton, in Tianjin was 23,010 - 23,110 yuan/ton, and in Zhejiang was 23,230 - 23,330 yuan/ton [4]. Zinc Ingot Inventory - From December 11 to December 22, the total inventory of zinc ingots in China's major markets decreased from 130,200 tons to 119,300 tons [5]. Zinc Warehouse Receipt Report - On December 22, the total SHFE zinc warehouse receipt was 42,590 tons, a decrease of 2,588 tons. Among them, Guangdong decreased by 2,312 tons, and Tianjin decreased by 276 tons [6]. LME Zinc Inventory - On December 22, the total LME zinc inventory was 99,250 tons, a decrease of 650 tons compared to the previous day, with a registered warrant of 91,250 tons and a cancelled warrant of 8,000 tons, accounting for 8.06% [8]. Zinc Concentrate Price - On December 22, the prices of 50% - grade zinc concentrate in most regions such as Jiyuan, Linzhou, and Kunming were around 19,960 yuan/ton, with a decline of 30 yuan/ton [10]. Zinc Ingot Smelter Price - On December 22, the prices of 0 zinc ingots from different smelters such as Hunan Zhuzhou Smelting, Sanzhoulu Zhongba, and Guangdong Zhongjin Lingnan decreased by 10 yuan/ton [13]. Domestic Refined Zinc Production - In November 2025, the actual domestic refined zinc production was 496,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.64% and a year - on - year increase of 18.48%, with a capacity utilization rate of 69.45%. The planned production in December was 477,500 tons [15]. Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee - On December 22, the average processing fee for 50% - grade domestic zinc concentrate was around 1,600 yuan/metal ton, and the average import processing fee was 50 US dollars/thousand tons [17]. Member Trading and Position Ranking - On December 22, in the SHFE member trading and position ranking of zinc, the total trading volume was 212,095 lots, an increase of 73,759 lots; the total long position was 63,613 lots, an increase of 2,641 lots; the total short position was 64,185 lots, an increase of 2,371 lots [18].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, and it is expected to mainly fluctuate downward in the short term due to high supply, declining terminal demand, high inventory, and an unimproved supply - demand mismatch [2][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Alkali plants have high production, with the second - phase of Yuangxing expected to be put into operation before the end of the year, leading to an expected abundant supply. Downstream float glass and photovoltaic daily melting volume are in a downward trend, and soda ash plant inventory is at a historical high [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,115 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2605 is 1,169 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 54 yuan, with futures at a premium to the spot [2]. - **Inventory**: The national soda ash plant inventory is 149.93 tons, a 0.33% increase from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [2][33]. - **Disk**: The price is running below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward [2]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing [2]. - **Expectation**: The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, and it is expected to mainly fluctuate downward in the short term [2]. 2. Influencing Factors Summary - **Positive Factors**: Equipment problems have led to reduced maintenance in enterprises, and the recovery of soda ash supply is slow [3]. - **Negative Factors**: Since 2023, soda ash production capacity has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The industry's production is at a historical high. The downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy soda ash has reduced production, and the demand for soda ash has weakened [4]. 3. Main Logic - The supply of soda ash is at a high level, terminal demand is declining, inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the supply - demand mismatch pattern in the industry has not been effectively improved [5]. 4. Soda Ash Futures Market | Day Session | Main Contract Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Heavy Soda Ash: Shahe Low - end Price (yuan/ton) | Main Basis (yuan/ton) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous Value | 1,176 | 1,125 | - 51 | | Current Value | 1,169 | 1,115 | - 54 | | Change Rate | - 0.60% | - 0.89% | 5.88% | [6] 5. Soda Ash Spot Market The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market is 1,115 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [11]. 6. Supply in Fundamentals - **Production Profit**: The profit of heavy soda ash by the North China ammonia - alkali method is - 146.70 yuan/ton, and the profit by the East China co - production method is - 109 yuan/ton, at a historical low [14]. - **Operating Rate and Production Volume**: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 82.74%. The weekly production volume of soda ash is 72.14 tons, including 39.03 tons of heavy soda ash, at a historical high [17][19]. - **Capacity Changes**: From 2023 to 2025, there have been significant increases in soda ash production capacity. In 2023, the new production capacity was 640 tons; in 2024, it was 180 tons; in 2025, the planned new production capacity is 750 tons, with an actual production of 100 tons [21]. 7. Demand in Fundamentals - **Production - Sales Ratio**: The weekly production - sales ratio of soda ash is 99.31% [24]. - **Downstream Demand**: The national daily melting volume of float glass is 15.50 tons, with an operating rate of 73.90% [27]. 8. Inventory in Fundamentals The national soda ash plant inventory is 149.93 tons, a 0.33% increase from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [33]. 9. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E shows changes in effective capacity, production, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [34].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2025-12-23） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 焦煤： 1、基本面：由于事故和年度检修等原因，近几日仍有新增停产煤矿，产地供应持续偏紧。受焦炭价格 下行影响，下游洗煤贸易企业以观望为主，焦煤市场成交情绪一般，拿货量整体下移，部分煤矿有小幅 累库，出库压力渐显；偏空 2、基差：现货市场价1140，基差26；现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：钢厂库存801万吨，港口库存295万吨，独立焦企库存861万吨，总样本库存1957万吨，较上 周减少21万吨；偏多 4、盘面：20日线向上，价格在20日线上方；偏多 5、主力持仓：焦煤主力净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：焦炭连续三轮降价之后焦化利润再度收紧，多数焦企仍保持前期限产力度，暂未有提产计划。 加之淡季终端需求偏弱下 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After continuous declines, the sugar futures contract SR2605 has short - term support near the 5000 mark, with some short - positions taking profits and reducing holdings, leading to a volatile rebound in the market [5][9] - The sugar market has both bullish and bearish factors. Bullish factors include increased syrup tariffs and the change in the US cola formula to use sucrose. Bearish factors are global sugar production increase, supply surplus in the new season, low international sugar prices leading to an open import profit window and increased import impact [7][9] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review - No relevant information provided 3.2 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the 2025/26 global sugar supply - demand balance. ISO predicts a 163 - million - ton surplus, DATAGRO reduces the surplus forecast from 280 million tons to 100 million tons, Czarnikow raises the surplus forecast to 740 million tons (120 million tons higher than the August forecast), and StoneX predicts a 370 - million - ton surplus. As of the end of October 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the new season in China was 883,000 tons, cumulative sales were 91,600 tons, and the sales rate was 10.37%. In November 2025, China imported 440,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year decrease of 90,000 tons; the total import of syrup and pre - mixed powder was 114,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 108,200 tons [4] - **Basis**: The spot price in Liuzhou is 5370, and the basis for the SR2605 contract is 244, indicating a premium over the futures price, which is bullish [6] - **Inventory**: As of the end of October in the 2025/26 sugar - making season, the industrial inventory was 791,400 tons, which is bearish [6] - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [6] - **Main Position**: The position is bullish, with the net position changing from short to long, but the main trend is unclear, which is also considered bullish [6] 3.3 Today's Focus - No relevant information provided 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Supply - demand Forecast**: Different institutions' forecasts for the 2025/26 global sugar supply - demand balance vary due to different core factors such as production increases in major producing countries and consumption growth rates [33] - **Domestic Sugar Production**: The sugar production in China is expected to reach 1.17 million tons in the 2025/26 season, with an import of 500,000 tons, consumption of 1.57 million tons, and an export of 18,000 tons, resulting in a surplus change of 82,000 tons. The international sugar price is expected to be in the range of 14.0 - 18.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be between 5500 - 6000 yuan per ton [35] - **Import Cost**: The cost of imported raw sugar after processing and paying 50% tariff was about 5086 yuan per ton at the end of October 2025, with good import profits due to the continuous decline of international sugar prices [38] 3.5 Position Data - No relevant information provided

目 录 1 观点和策略 2 基本面 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪镍&不锈钢周报（12.15-12.19） 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资：F3023048 投资咨询证：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 3 技术分析 4 产业链梳理总结 一、观点和策略 沪镍观点：本周镍价先抑后扬，下游刚需仍采购为主，价格影响成交效果一般。近期部分 产能减产，供应压力减轻。产业链上，镍矿价格稳定，海运费持平，矿库存高位，中长期 预期供应宽松。镍铁价格弱稳，成本线有一定支撑。不锈钢库存回落，交易所仓单回落， 对价格底部有一定支撑。精炼镍库存持续高位，过剩格局不变。新能源汽车产销数据良好， 但总体镍需求提振有限。 操作策略： 沪镍主力：20均线为中心宽幅震荡，中长线反弹抛空。 不锈钢主力：震荡偏强运行。 二、基本面分析 1、产业链周度价格变化 2、镍矿市场状况分析 3、电解镍市场状况分析 4、镍铁市场 ...

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