交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年9月15日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 黄金 1、基本面：市场等待美联储决议，金价震荡；美国三大股指收盘涨跌不一，欧洲三 大股指收盘涨跌互现；美债收益率涨跌不一，10年期美债收益率跌2.29个基点报 4.024%；美元指数涨0.08%报97.61，离岸人民币对美元升值报7.1237；COMEX黄金期 货涨0.19%报3680.70美元/盎司；中性 2、基差：黄金期货834.22，现货830.34，基差-3.88，现货贴水期货；中性 3、库存：黄金期货仓单52950千克，增加2799千克；偏空 4、盘面：20日均线向上，k线在20日均线上方；偏多 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，主力多减；偏多 6、预期：今日关注中国8月系列经济数据、中美在西班牙经贸会谈、欧央行官员讲 话。临近9月美联储会议，金价震荡。沪金溢价小幅收敛至-5.1元/克。临近9月美联 储会议，金价依旧偏强，警惕降息落地金价提前回落。 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No clear industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report analyzes the fuel oil market, indicating that the Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market is under short - term pressure due to sufficient immediate supply and weak terminal demand, while the high - sulfur fuel oil market is supported by relatively stable downstream demand. The market shows certain resistance as downstream demand improves, and it is recommended to follow the impact of geopolitical factors such as China - US trade negotiations. The expected operating ranges are 2760 - 2810 for FU2510 and 3310 - 3370 for LU2511 [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - Fundamental analysis: The Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market is under short - term pressure, while the high - sulfur fuel oil market is supported by demand. The basis shows a spot premium over futures, and Singapore's fuel oil inventory decreased in the week of September 10. The price is near the 20 - day line, and high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil have different trends in the main positions. The expected operating ranges are 2760 - 2810 for FU2510 and 3310 - 3370 for LU2511 [3]. - Futures market: The prices of FU and LU main contracts decreased, with declines of 2.15% and 2.43% respectively. The basis increased significantly, with increases of 56.27% and 133.66% respectively [5]. - Spot market: The prices of various fuel oils decreased, with decreases ranging from 0.64% to 2.11%, except for Singapore diesel, which increased by 0.41% [6]. 3.2 Multi - Short Concerns - Bullish factors: There is a possibility of increased sanctions against Russia [4]. - Bearish factors: The optimism on the demand side remains to be verified, and the upstream crude oil price is weak [4]. - Market drivers: The supply side is affected by geopolitical risks, and demand is neutral [4]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - Singapore fuel oil inventory on September 10 was 2303.9 million barrels, a decrease of 27 million barrels [3]. 3.4 Spread Data No specific spread data analysis is provided in the given content. 3.5 Inventory Data - Singapore fuel oil inventory has fluctuated in recent months, with a decrease of 27 million barrels in the week of September 10 to 2303.9 million barrels [3][8].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2025-9-15 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 尿素概述： • 1. 基本面：近期尿素盘面震荡回落。当前日产及开工率略有回落仍处于偏高位置，库存整体 高位。需求端，工业需求中复合肥开工回升，三聚氰胺开工中性，农业需求进入淡季。国内尿素 整体供过于求仍明显，出口利润仍较高，出口政策未显著放开。交割品现货1780（+20），基本 面整体偏空； • 2. 基差： UR2601合约基差117，升贴水比例6.6%，偏多； • 3. 库存：UR综合库存141万吨（+0.8），偏空； • 4. 盘面： UR主力合约20日均线向下，收盘价位于20日线下，偏空； • 5. 主力持仓：UR主力持仓净多，增多，偏多； • 6. 预期：尿素主力合约盘面震荡偏弱，国际尿素价格偏强，出口 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The manganese - silicon alloy market is currently in a wait - and - see state, awaiting the final tender price of Hegang Group to guide the market. It is expected that the price of manganese - silicon will fluctuate this week, with SM2601 fluctuating between 5750 - 5900 yuan/ton [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Manganese - silicon Supply Capacity - There are data on the monthly capacity of Chinese manganese - silicon enterprises and the annual production of manganese - silicon in different regions of China, including Guangxi, Guizhou, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Yunnan, and other areas [7][8]. Production - Annual production: There are annual production data of manganese - silicon in different regions such as Guangxi, Guizhou, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Yunnan, and other areas in China [8]. - Weekly, monthly production and operating rate: There are data on the weekly and monthly production of Chinese manganese - silicon and the weekly operating rate of Chinese manganese - silicon enterprises [11]. - Regional production: There are monthly production data of Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Guizhou, and daily average production data of Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Guizhou, and Guangxi [12][13]. 2. Manganese - silicon Demand Steel Tender Purchase Price - There are monthly purchase price data of manganese - silicon 6517 by multiple steel companies, including Baoshan Iron & Steel Co., Ltd., Baowu E'gang, Chengde Jianlong, Heilongjiang Jianlong, Yangchun Iron & Steel, Jilin Jianlong, and Nanjing Iron & Steel Co., Ltd. [16]. Daily Average Hot Metal and Profit - There are weekly data on the daily average hot metal production and profitability of 247 Chinese steel enterprises [18]. 3. Manganese - silicon Import and Export - There are monthly data on the total export and import quantities of Chinese ferromanganese - silicon [20]. 4. Manganese - silicon Inventory - There are weekly data on the inventory of 63 sample Chinese manganese - silicon enterprises, and monthly data on the average available days of manganese - silicon inventory in China, the northern region, and the eastern region [22]. 5. Manganese - silicon Cost Manganese Ore - Import Volume - There are monthly data on the total import volume of manganese ore by trade method, the import volume of manganese ore from Gabon to China, the total import volume of manganese ore from southern Africa to China, and the import volume of manganese ore from Australia to China [24]. Manganese Ore - Port Inventory and Available Days - There are weekly data on the port inventory of Chinese manganese ore, the port inventory of Qinzhou Port and Tianjin Port, and the average available days of Chinese manganese ore inventory [26]. Manganese Ore - High - grade Ore Port Inventory - There are weekly data on the port inventory of Australian - produced, Gabon - produced, and Brazilian - produced high - grade manganese ore in Qinzhou Port and Tianjin Port [28]. Manganese Ore - Tianjin Port Manganese Ore Price - There are daily data on the aggregated prices of South African semi - carbonate manganese lumps (Mn36.5%), Australian - produced manganese ore (Mn45%), and Gabon - produced manganese lumps (Mn44.5%) in Tianjin Port [29]. Regional Cost - There are daily data on the cost of manganese - silicon in Inner Mongolia, the northern region, Ningxia, the southern region, and Guangxi [30]. 6. Manganese - silicon Profit - There are daily data on the profit of manganese - silicon in the northern region, the southern region, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Guangxi [32].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand mismatch leads to a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change [14] - Lithium carbonate 2511 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 69,580 - 72,420 [10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - Supply: Last week, lithium carbonate production was 19,419 tons, a 2.04% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. In August 2025, the production was 85,240 tons, and the predicted production for next month is 86,730 tons, a 1.75% increase. The import volume in August was 17,000 tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 19,500 tons, a 14.71% increase [8][10] - Demand: Last week, the inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 94,756 tons, a 0.28% week - on - week increase, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 17,644 tons, a 1.05% week - on - week decrease. Next month's demand is expected to strengthen, and inventory may be reduced [8][10] - Cost: The cost of外购锂辉石精矿 is 73,549 yuan/ton, a 0.46% daily decrease, resulting in a loss of 1,761 yuan/ton. The cost of外购锂云母 is 77,368 yuan/ton, a 0.44% daily decrease, resulting in a loss of 7,563 yuan/ton. The production cost of the recycling end is generally higher than that of the ore end, with negative production income and low production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end is 31,745 yuan/ton, significantly lower than the ore end, with sufficient profit space and strong production motivation [9] - Other factors: On September 11, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 72,850 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 1,850 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures. The overall inventory was 140,092 tons, a 0.73% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average. The MA20 of the disk is downward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed below the MA20. The net position of the main force is short, and the short position increased [10][11] -利多 factors: Manufacturers' production cut and shutdown plans, a month - on - month decrease in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile, and a decline in the import volume of lithium spodumene [12] -利空 factors: The supply at the ore/salt lake end remains at a high level with limited decline, and the willingness of the power battery end to take delivery is insufficient [13] 3.2 Fundamentals/Position Data - **Market Data Overview**: The table shows the changes in prices, basis, and upstream prices of lithium - related products such as lithium ore, lithium carbonate, and lithium hydroxide. For example, the price of lithium ore (6%) decreased by 0.59%, and the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 0.82% [15] - **Supply - side Data**: The weekly operating rate of lithium carbonate was 66.41% with no change. The daily production cost of lithium spodumene decreased by 0.46%, and the monthly processing cost increased by 4.49%. The monthly production of lithium iron phosphate increased by 4.96%, and the monthly production of lithium iron phosphate increased by 8.84% [19] - **Demand - side Data**: The monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate increased by 3.39%, and the monthly production increased by 4.96%. The monthly production of lithium iron phosphate increased by 8.84%, and the monthly export increased by 34.94% [19]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply - demand situation is complex. The supply is stable, but demand is weak. The cost support is weakening in the flood season, and the market is expected to oscillate in the range of 8605 - 8875 [6][8]. - For polysilicon, the short - term supply schedule is decreasing, while the demand shows a continuous recovery trend. The cost support is stable, and the market is expected to oscillate in the range of 52660 - 54760 [10]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Views Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: Last week, the supply was 90,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week [6]. - **Demand**: Last week, the demand was 81,000 tons, a 1.21% decrease from the previous week. The demand in the downstream sectors such as polysilicon, organic silicon, and aluminum alloy is in different states [6]. - **Cost**: The production of sample oxygen - passed 553 in Xinjiang is at a loss of 3322 yuan/ton, and the cost support is weakening in the flood season [6]. - **Other factors**: On September 11, the basis of the 11 - contract was 260 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price. The social inventory decreased by 0.73%, and the sample enterprise inventory decreased by 1.55%. The main port inventory decreased by 1.68%. The MA20 is upward, and the 11 - contract futures price closed above the MA20. The net position of the main players is short, and the short position is decreasing [6][8]. Polysilicon - **Supply**: Last week, the production was 31,200 tons, a 3.31% increase from the previous week. The production schedule for September is expected to be 126,700 tons, a 3.79% decrease from the previous month [10]. - **Demand**: The production of silicon wafers last week was 13.88GW, a 0.72% increase from the previous week, and the inventory decreased by 1.78%. The production of battery cells and components is increasing, and the overall demand is recovering [10]. - **Cost**: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 35,620 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 14,430 yuan/ton [10]. - **Other factors**: On September 11, the basis of the 11 - contract was - 2160 yuan/ton, with the spot price lower than the futures price. The weekly inventory increased by 3.79% and is at a low level compared to the same period in history. The MA20 is upward, and the 11 - contract futures price closed above the MA20. The net position of the main players is long, and the long position is decreasing [10]. 3.2 Market Overview Industrial Silicon - Futures prices of different contracts showed varying degrees of increase. For example, the 01 - contract increased by 0.94% [17]. - Spot prices of different grades of industrial silicon also showed increases, such as the price of East China non - oxygen - passed 553 silicon increased by 0.56% [17]. - Inventory data of different types, including social inventory, sample enterprise inventory, and main port inventory, showed a decreasing trend [17]. Polysilicon - Futures prices of different contracts increased. For example, the 01 - contract increased by 1.54% [19]. - Prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components were relatively stable, with small changes in some indicators [19]. - The export volume of battery cells and components increased, and the inventory of some products decreased [19]. 3.3 Price and Cost Trends - **Industrial Silicon**: The price - basis and delivery product spread trends, as well as the cost trends in sample regions, show fluctuations over time [21][38]. - **Polysilicon**: The market price and cost trends show that the price and cost of polysilicon have different change trends in different periods [64]. 3.4 Supply - Demand Balance - **Industrial Silicon**: The weekly and monthly supply - demand balance tables show that the supply - demand relationship is in a state of change, with different levels of balance or imbalance in different periods [41][44]. - **Polysilicon**: The monthly supply - demand balance table shows that the supply and demand are also in a dynamic state, with different balance results in different months [67]. 3.5 Downstream Market Trends Organic Silicon - The DMC price, production, and inventory trends show that the production capacity utilization rate is relatively stable, and the inventory has increased [47][53]. - The prices of downstream products such as 107 glue, silicone oil, and raw rubber are relatively stable [49]. Aluminum Alloy - The price, supply, inventory, and production trends of aluminum alloy show that the inventory is at a high level, and the production and import - export situation is complex [56][59]. - The demand in the automotive and wheel - hub sectors is related to the production and sales of automobiles and the export of wheel - hubs [60]. Polysilicon Downstream - **Silicon Wafers**: The price, production, inventory, and demand trends show that the production is increasing, and the inventory is decreasing [70]. - **Battery Cells**: The price, production, and export trends show that the production is increasing, and the export volume is also increasing [73]. - **Photovoltaic Components**: The price, production, inventory, and export trends show that the production and export are increasing, and the inventory is decreasing [76]. - **Photovoltaic Accessories**: The price, production, and import - export trends of photovoltaic accessories such as photovoltaic coating, photovoltaic film, and photovoltaic glass show different change trends [79]. - **Component Composition Cost - Profit**: The cost - profit trends of different components in 210mm components show different profit situations [81].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - In the context of the contradiction between weak reality caused by high supply and strong expectations, the domestic methanol market is expected to fluctuate and consolidate this week. Inland prices are expected to continue narrow - range consolidation, while the port market will maintain high volatility and strong linkage, with both ups and downs. Attention should be paid to the restart time of the main olefin plants at the port and low - buying opportunities under market speculation. It is expected that the methanol price will mainly fluctuate this week, with MA2601 oscillating between 2380 - 2430 yuan/ton [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips - The 2025 - 09 - 12 methanol morning report is from Dayue Futures' investment consulting department, with details of the analyst including name, qualification numbers, and contact information [1]. - The report is not a futures trading consulting service, and its views and information are for reference only [1]. 2. Multi - and Short - Term Concerns - **Likely Positive Factors**: Some device shutdowns (Yulin Kaiyue, Xinjiang Xinya), reduced methanol production in Iran and low port inventory, new product output from a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device in Jingmen and planned production of a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device in Xinjiang Zhonghe Hezhong, and methanol procurement by northwest CTO factories [6]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: Resumption of previously shut - down devices (Inner Mongolia Donghua), expected concentrated vessel arrivals at the port in the second half of the month, formaldehyde entering the traditional off - season and a significant decline in MTBE operation, certain profit margins in coal - to - methanol production and active sales, and inventory accumulation in some factories in the production area due to poor sales [7]. 3. Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand**: High supply and weak reality coexist with strong expectations. Inland start - up is increasing, and port inventory is high, but there is still some demand expectation before the National Day holiday [5]. - **Price**: The spot price of methanol in Jiangsu is 2300 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract is - 87, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price [5]. - **Inventory**: As of September 11, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in the East and South China ports is 1.2673 million tons, an increase of 122,700 tons from the previous period. The overall available and tradable methanol in coastal areas has increased by 87,900 tons to 891,500 tons [5]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day line is downward, and the price is below the moving average [5]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net long, with an increase in long positions [5]. 4. Maintenance Status - **Domestic Devices**: Many domestic methanol plants are under maintenance, with varying start - up and shut - down times and reasons, including planned maintenance, unplanned shutdowns, and device failures [57]. - **Overseas Devices**: Some overseas methanol plants are under maintenance or have unstable operations, such as some plants in Iran, Qatar, etc. [58]. - **Olefin Devices**: Some domestic olefin plants are under maintenance, and some have plans for production expansion or start - up [59].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - For gold, the US CPI was in line with expectations, leading to a sideways movement in gold prices. Although the expectation of a Fed rate - cut has increased as the September Fed meeting approaches, the upward momentum of gold prices is limited. The premium of Shanghai gold has significantly converged to -4.5 yuan/gram. Gold prices remain strong but there is a risk of an early decline if the rate - cut is implemented next week [4]. - For silver, with the US CPI in line with expectations, risk appetite has increased, causing silver prices to rebound. As the September Fed meeting nears and the rate - cut expectation rises, risk appetite remains strong, providing support for silver prices. The premium of Shanghai silver is maintained at around 366 yuan/kg [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Previous Day Review - **Gold**: The US CPI was in line with expectations, the three major US stock indexes reached new all - time highs, European stock indexes rose, US Treasury yields were mixed (10 - year Treasury yield down 2.29 basis points to 4.024%), the US dollar index fell 0.32% to 97.53, the offshore RMB appreciated slightly against the US dollar to 7.1129, and COMEX gold futures fell 0.23% to $3673.40 per ounce [4]. - **Silver**: The US CPI was in line with expectations, risk appetite increased, the three major US stock indexes reached new all - time highs, European stock indexes rose, US Treasury yields were mixed (10 - year Treasury yield down 2.29 basis points to 4.024%), the US dollar index fell 0.32% to 97.53, the offshore RMB appreciated slightly against the US dollar to 7.1129, and COMEX silver futures rose 1.12% to $42.07 per ounce [6]. 3.2. Daily Tips - **Gold**: The basis is -3.28 (spot at a discount to futures), inventory increased by 4200 kg to 50151 kg, the 20 - day moving average is upward with the K - line above it, and the main net position is long but the long position is decreasing [5]. - **Silver**: The basis is -28 (spot at a discount to futures), the inventory of Shanghai silver futures decreased by 11983 kg to 1240187 kg, the 20 - day moving average is upward with the K - line above it, and the main net position is long but the long position is decreasing [6]. 3.3. Today's Focus - Time TBD: The 2025 China International Fair for Trade in Services will be held at Shougang Park, and BYD Yangwang U8L Ding Shi Edition will be launched. - 11:40: Speech by Assistant Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, Jones. - 14:00: UK GDP for July and final German CPI for August. - 15:00: Speech by European Central Bank Governing Council member, Escrivá. - 16:00: Speeches on monetary policy by European Central Bank Governing Council members, Rehn and Kohler. - 16:15: Speech by European Central Bank Governing Council member and President of the German Bundesbank, Nagel. - 18:30: Announcement of the interest rate decision by the Central Bank of Russia, followed by a press conference on monetary policy by Governor Nabiullina. - 22:00: Preliminary US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for September. - Saturday: Circuit breaker test in the US New York Stock Exchange [15]. 3.4. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: After Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil. The inflation expectation has shifted to an economic recession expectation, and gold prices are difficult to fall. The verification between the expected and actual policies of the new US government will continue, and the sentiment for gold prices is high, making them still prone to rise and difficult to fall [10]. - **Silver**: After Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil. The inflation expectation has shifted to an economic recession expectation, and silver prices still mainly follow gold prices. The concern about tariffs has a stronger impact on silver prices, and there is a risk of an enlarged increase [13]. 3.5. Position Data - **Gold**: The long position of the top 20 holders in Shanghai gold decreased by 3903 to 247,884, the short position increased by 1746 to 84,143, and the net position decreased by 5649 to 163,741. The SPDR Gold ETF holdings have started to decrease [31][34]. - **Silver**: The long position of the top 20 holders in Shanghai silver decreased by 4432 to 361,896, the short position decreased by 5047 to 242,218, and the net position increased by 615 to 119,678. The silver ETF holdings continue to decrease but are higher than the same period in the past two years [32][37].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main logic is that the overall supply pressure is strong, and the domestic demand recovery is sluggish [13]. - The positives include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export advantages [12]. - The negatives are the rebound in overall supply pressure, high - level and slow - consuming inventories, and weak domestic and external demand [12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - Positives: supply resumption, calcium carbide and ethylene cost support, export advantages [12] - Negatives: overall supply pressure rebound, high - level and slow - consuming inventories, weak domestic and external demand [12] - Main logic: strong overall supply pressure, poor domestic demand recovery [13] 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data 3.2.1 Supply - side - In August 2025, PVC production was 2.07334 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.43%. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 77.13%, a month - on - month increase of 0.01 percentage points. Calcium carbide method enterprise production was 327,885 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.68%, and ethylene method enterprise production was 134,060 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.11%. Supply pressure increased this week, and next week, maintenance is expected to decrease, with a slight increase in scheduled production [7]. 3.2.2 Demand - side - The overall downstream start - up rate was 43.5%, a month - on - month increase of 0.899 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream profile start - up rate was 38.39%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.21 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream pipe start - up rate was 33.48%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.13 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream film start - up rate was 70.77%, unchanged from the previous month, higher than the historical average. The downstream paste resin start - up rate was 74.07%, a month - on - month increase of 0.809 percentage points, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to decline, and domestic PVC export prices are competitive. Current demand may remain weak [7]. 3.2.3 Cost - side - The profit of the calcium carbide method was - 420.96 yuan/ton, with the loss increasing by 5.40% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The profit of the ethylene method was - 670.97 yuan/ton, with the loss increasing by 6.80% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2,617.05 yuan/ton, with the profit increasing by 1.50% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. Scheduled production may be under pressure [8]. 3.2.4 Others - On September 11th, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4,750 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 138 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [9]. - Factory inventory was 315,801 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.17%. Calcium carbide method factory inventory was 251,301 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.77%. Ethylene method factory inventory was 64,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.85%. Social inventory was 533,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.12%. The inventory days of production enterprises in stock were 5.25 days, a month - on - month increase of 0.96% [9]. - MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed below MA20 [9]. - The net position of the main contract holders is short, and short positions are increasing [9]. - The cost of the calcium carbide method and the ethylene method is weakening, and the overall cost is weakening. Overall inventory is at a high level. Current demand may remain weak. PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4,857 - 4,919 [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of coking coal and coke. For coking coal, it is expected to run weakly and stably in the short - term. For coke, the market is turning to a loose pattern and is also expected to run weakly and stably in the short - term [2][6] Summary by Related Catalogs Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: Domestic coking coal mines in major producing areas have resumed production steadily, with stable supply. Due to the decline in steel prices and increased expectations of coke price cuts, downstream demand is weak, and the market trading atmosphere has deteriorated. Some coal inventories in mines have accumulated, and coal prices are running weakly and stably [2] - **Basis**: The spot market price is 1130, with a basis of - 11.5, indicating that the spot is at a discount to the futures [2] - **Inventory**: The total sample inventory is 1890.7 tons, a decrease of 28.1 tons from last week [2] - **Market**: The 20 - day line is downward, and the price is below the 20 - day line [2] - **Main Position**: The main net position of coking coal is short, and the short position is decreasing [2] - **Expectation**: Some coking and steel enterprises are resuming production, increasing short - term raw material consumption. However, due to the first round of coke price cuts and the expectation of further price cuts, enterprises mainly purchase on demand, and the short - term price is expected to run weakly and stably [2] - **Positive Factors**: Rising hot metal production and limited supply increase [4] - **Negative Factors**: Slowing procurement of raw coal by coking and steel enterprises and weak steel prices [4] Coke - **Fundamentals**: The decline in raw coal prices has stimulated the production enthusiasm of coking enterprises, and the production has increased. However, downstream steel mills have improved their arrival situation and controlled procurement, affecting the shipment of coking enterprises [6] - **Basis**: The spot market price is 1570, with a basis of - 60, indicating that the spot is at a discount to the futures [6] - **Inventory**: The total sample inventory is 864.2 tons, a decrease of 17.9 tons from last week [6] - **Market**: The 20 - day line is downward, and the price is below the 20 - day line [7] - **Main Position**: The main net position of coke is short, and the short position is decreasing [7] - **Expectation**: Coking enterprises are profitable and have high production enthusiasm, but terminal demand is weak, and steel mills are cautious in procurement. The market is turning to a loose pattern, and the short - term price is expected to run weakly and stably [6] - **Positive Factors**: Rising hot metal production and increasing blast furnace operating rate [9] - **Negative Factors**: Squeezed profit margins of steel mills and over - drawn replenishment demand [9] Other Data - **Port Inventory**: Coking coal port inventory is 282.1 tons, a decrease of 10.2 tons from last week; coke port inventory is 215.1 tons, an increase of 17 tons from last week [21] - **Independent Coking Enterprise Inventory**: Coking coal inventory of independent coking enterprises is 844.1 tons, an increase of 2.9 tons from last week; coke inventory is 46.5 tons, a decrease of 3.6 tons from last week [26] - **Steel Mill Inventory**: Coking coal inventory of steel mills is 803.8 tons, an increase of 4.3 tons from last week; coke inventory is 626.7 tons, a decrease of 13.3 tons from last week [31] - **Coke Oven Capacity Utilization Rate**: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is 74.48% [44] - **Average Profit per Ton of Coke**: The average profit per ton of coke of 30 independent coking plants is 25 yuan [48]