Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - **沪镍**: The outer market continues to rebound, with prices standing above the 20 - day moving average. The cost line is firm, but the overall demand boost is limited. In the short - term, pay attention to the impact of anti - involution, and the long - term pattern of oversupply remains unchanged. The contract 沪镍2510 will oscillate, with support from the cost line below [2]. - **不锈钢**: The spot stainless - steel price remains flat. The cost line is firm, and the inventory continues to decline. Expect consumption during the "Golden September and Silver October" period. In the short - term, anti - involution may affect the black - metal sector again. The contract 不锈钢2511 will oscillate widely around the 20 - day moving average [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Overview - **镍**: The price of 沪镍主力 decreased by 230 to 120620 on September 11 compared to the previous day; the price of 伦镍电 increased by 50 to 15220. The price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel decreased by 100 to 121450 [12]. - **不锈钢**: The price of 不锈钢主力 decreased by 45 to 12870 on September 11 compared to the previous day. The prices of cold - rolled coils in major regions remained unchanged [12]. 2. Inventory - **镍**: As of September 11, the LME nickel inventory was 223152, an increase of 2058; the SHFE nickel warehouse receipts were 22111, a decrease of 193. The total inventory increased by 1865 to 245263 [15]. - **不锈钢**: As of September 5, the national stainless - steel inventory was 105.36 million tons, a decrease of 2.94 million tons from the previous period. On September 11, the stainless - steel warehouse receipts were 97554, a decrease of 734 [20][21]. 3. Price of Raw Materials - **镍矿 and nickel - iron**: The prices of red - soil nickel ore CIF with different grades remained unchanged on September 11 compared to the previous day. The price of high - nickel wet - ton increased by 1 to 953.5 yuan per nickel point, and the price of low - nickel wet - ton remained unchanged at 3470 yuan per ton [24]. 4. Production Cost - **不锈钢**: The traditional production cost was 13142, the scrap - steel production cost was 13555, and the low - nickel + pure - nickel production cost was 16760 [26]. 5. Import Cost - **镍**: The imported price was converted to 122520 yuan per ton [29]. 6. Influencing Factors - **Positive factors**: Expectation of demand boost during "Golden September and Silver October", anti - involution policy, and cost - line support at 120,000 [6]. - **Negative factors**: A significant year - on - year increase in domestic production with no new demand growth points, and a year - on - year decline in the installed capacity of ternary batteries [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core View of the Report - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. The USDA's South American production forecast for 24/25 is high, the Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, the demand has improved, Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the US biodiesel policy for soybean oil supports the increase in biodiesel consumption. The imposition of tariffs on Canadian rapeseed in China has led to the rise of the rapeseed sector. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and the import inventory is stable. The easing of Sino-US and Sino-Canadian relations affects the market at the macro level. The trading ranges for different oils are as follows: soybean oil Y2601 between 8100 - 8500, palm oil P2601 between 9100 - 9500, and rapeseed oil OI2601 between 9700 - 10100 [2][3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that Malaysian palm oil production in May decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% month-on-month to 1.49 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% month-on-month to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, with the production cut falling short of expectations. Currently, shipping survey agencies indicate that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month-on-month. Entering the production season, the supply of palm oil will increase. The overall assessment is neutral [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8408, with a basis of 72, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price, which is a bullish signal [2]. - **Inventory**: On August 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 11.7% higher year-on-year, which is a bearish signal [2]. - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward, which is a bullish signal [2]. - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have increased, which is a bullish signal [2]. - **Expectation**: The price of soybean oil is expected to fluctuate between 8100 - 8500 [2]. Daily View - Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report on Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and the supply is expected to increase. The overall assessment is neutral [3]. - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 9354, with a basis of 24, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price, which is a bullish signal [3]. - **Inventory**: On August 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, up 10,000 tons from the previous period and 34.1% lower year-on-year, which is a bullish signal [3]. - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward, which is a bullish signal [3]. - **Main Position**: The main palm oil contract has shifted from long to short, which is a bearish signal [3]. - **Expectation**: The price of palm oil is expected to fluctuate between 9100 - 9500 [3]. Daily View - Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report on Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and the supply is expected to increase. The overall assessment is neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10020, with a basis of 127, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price, which is a bullish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: On August 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, up 10,000 tons from the previous period and 3.2% higher year-on-year, which is a bearish signal [4]. - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward, which is a bullish signal [4]. - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have increased, which is a bearish signal [4]. - **Expectation**: The price of rapeseed oil is expected to fluctuate between 9700 - 10100 [4]. Recent利多利空Analysis - **利多 Factors**: The US soybean stock-to-use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. There is also a "palm oil tremor season" (the specific meaning is not clear from the text) [5]. - **利空 Factors**: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high historical level, and the domestic inventory of oils and fats has been continuously increasing. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5]. - **Main Logic**: The global fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively loose [5]. Supply - **Imported Soybean Inventory**: No specific data or analysis provided, only the topic is mentioned [6]. - **Soybean Oil Inventory**: The inventory data on August 22 shows a certain trend, and historical inventory data charts are provided [2][7]. - **Soybean Meal Inventory**: Historical inventory data charts are provided [9][10]. - **Oil Mill Soybean Crushing**: Historical data charts are provided [11][12]. - **Palm Oil Inventory**: Historical inventory data charts are provided [17][18]. - **Rapeseed Oil Inventory**: Historical inventory data charts are provided [19][20]. - **Rapeseed Inventory**: Historical inventory data charts are provided [21][22]. - **Domestic Total Oil and Fat Inventory**: Historical inventory data charts are provided [23][24]. Demand - **Soybean Oil Apparent Consumption**: Historical consumption data charts are provided [13][14]. - **Soybean Meal Apparent Consumption**: Historical consumption data charts are provided [15][16].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to fluctuate within the range of 2520 - 2580. It is currently in a short - term oscillating and strengthening pattern, affected by the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed. The market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The short - term demand for rapeseed meal remains in the peak season, and low inventory supports the market, but the demand will gradually enter the off - season after the National Day, and there are still variables in the China - Canada trade negotiations [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - The rapeseed meal futures have returned to oscillation, the spot price is relatively stable, and the spot premium fluctuates slightly. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuates slightly, and the price difference of the 2601 contract shows a weak oscillation. The import volume of imported rapeseed remains stable in September, and the import cost is affected by tariffs. The rapeseed inventory in oil mills remains low, and the rapeseed meal inventory has a slight rebound. The rapeseed crushing volume in oil mills fluctuates slightly. The price of aquatic fish has a slight rebound, and the price of shrimp and shellfish remains stable [17][19][22]. 2. Recent News - The domestic aquatic aquaculture has entered the peak season, and the listing of domestic rapeseed has improved the tight supply expectation in the spot market, with good demand expectations. China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports has been established, and a 75.8% import deposit has been imposed. The final ruling result is still uncertain. The global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially the production in Canada is higher than expected. The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and the decrease in Ukrainian rapeseed production and the increase in Russian rapeseed production offset each other. There is still a possibility of an increase in global geopolitical conflicts, which still supports bulk commodities [11]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: The preliminary anti - dumping determination of Canadian rapeseed imports and the addition of import deposits; the inventory pressure of rapeseed meal in oil mills is not large. Bearish factors: The concentrated listing of domestic rapeseed; there is still a small probability of reconciliation in the final result of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports. The current main logic is that the market focuses on the domestic aquatic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [12]. 4. Fundamental Data - From September 3rd to 11th, the trading average price of soybean meal fluctuated between 3049 - 3065 yuan/ton, and the trading volume ranged from 7.84 - 39.05 million tons. The trading average price of rapeseed meal was mainly 2600 yuan/ton, and the trading volume was relatively small. The spot price of rapeseed meal (in Fujian) increased from 2580 yuan/ton on September 3rd to 2620 yuan/ton on September 11th. The rapeseed meal inventory was 1.8 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 28% compared with last week's 2.5 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 25% compared with 2.4 million tons in the same period last year [13][15][9]. 5. Position Data - The number of rapeseed meal warehouse receipts fluctuated from September 1st to 11th. For example, on September 1st, it was 6041 (-369 compared with the previous day), and on September 11th, it was 10383 (0 compared with the previous day) [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side shows that in August 2025, the total planned production volume of domestic asphalt was 2.413 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt decreased, and refineries reduced production to ease supply pressure, and it is expected to further decrease next week [7]. - On the demand side, the current demand for various types of asphalt is lower than the historical average, with some开工 rates decreasing and some remaining flat [7]. - The cost side indicates that the daily asphalt processing profit decreased, while the weekly Shandong local refinery delayed coking profit increased. With the strengthening of crude oil, short - term cost support is expected to strengthen [8]. - The basis shows that on September 11, the spot price in Shandong was 3,540 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 77 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [9]. - In terms of inventory, social inventory and factory inventory are continuously decreasing, while port inventory is continuously increasing [9]. - The disk shows that MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed below MA20 [9]. - The main positions show a net short position, with an increase in short positions [9]. - Overall, it is expected that the disk will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with asphalt 2511 fluctuating in the range of 3,442 - 3,484 [9]. - The bullish factor is that the relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support [11]. - The bearish factors include insufficient demand for high - priced goods, overall downward demand, and a strengthened expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [12]. - The main logic is that the supply pressure remains high, and the demand recovery is weak [13]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: In August 2025, the total planned production volume of domestic asphalt was 2.413 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt was 30.501%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.90 percentage points. The national sample enterprise shipments, production, and refinery device maintenance volume changed, and refineries reduced production to ease supply pressure [7]. - **Demand**: The current demand for various types of asphalt is lower than the historical average, with the heavy - traffic asphalt开工 rate at 28.1%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.04 percentage points; the construction asphalt开工 rate at 18.2%, unchanged month - on - month; the modified asphalt开工 rate at 15.8893%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.25 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt开工 rate at 27.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.83 percentage points; and the waterproofing membrane开工 rate at 33.93%, a month - on - month increase of 0.07 percentage points [7]. - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 513.38 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 3.00%, and the weekly Shandong local refinery delayed coking profit was 792.0771 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 6.94%. With the strengthening of crude oil, short - term cost support is expected to strengthen [8]. - **Basis**: On September 11, the spot price in Shandong was 3,540 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 77 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [9]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory was 1.225 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.54%; factory inventory was 0.642 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.74%; and port diluted asphalt inventory was 0.32 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 68.42% [9]. - **Disk**: MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed below MA20 [9]. - **Main Positions**: The main positions show a net short position, with an increase in short positions [9]. - **Expectation**: It is expected that the disk will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with asphalt 2511 fluctuating in the range of 3,442 - 3,484 [9]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report provides data on yesterday's asphalt market, including futures closing prices, price changes, and basis changes of different contracts, as well as data on downstream demand开工 rates, asphalt coking profit spreads, weekly shipments, weekly production, weekly开工 rates, and weekly inventory [16]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Analysis - The report presents the historical trends of the Shandong and East China basis of asphalt, which helps to analyze the relationship between spot and futures prices [18]. 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - **Main Contract Spread**: It shows the historical trends of the spreads between the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts of asphalt, which is useful for spread trading analysis [21]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: It presents the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil, helping to analyze the relationship between asphalt and crude oil prices [24]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: It shows the historical trends of the crack spreads of asphalt and different types of crude oil (SC, WTI, Brent), which is important for understanding the profitability of refining [27]. - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Ratio Trend**: It presents the historical ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil, which can be used for relative value analysis [31]. 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Different Regions - It shows the historical price trends of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt, which helps to understand the price changes in the spot market [34]. 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Profit Analysis - **Asphalt Profit**: It presents the historical profit trends of asphalt, which is important for analyzing the profitability of asphalt production [36]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: It shows the historical trends of the profit spread between coking and asphalt, which is useful for understanding the profit differences between different production processes [39]. 3.7 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Side Analysis - **Shipment Volume**: It shows the historical shipment volume trends of small - sample asphalt enterprises, which helps to understand the sales situation of asphalt [42]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: It presents the historical trends of domestic diluted asphalt port inventory, which is important for analyzing the supply situation of raw materials [44]. - **Production Volume**: It shows the historical trends of weekly and monthly asphalt production volumes, which helps to understand the overall supply situation of asphalt [47]. - **Merey Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend**: It presents the historical trends of Merey crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production, which is important for analyzing the impact of raw material supply on asphalt production [51]. - **Local Refinery Asphalt Production**: It shows the historical production volume trends of local refinery asphalt, which helps to understand the production capacity of local refineries [54]. - **开工Rate**: It shows the historical trends of weekly asphalt开工rates, which helps to understand the production activity of asphalt [57]. - **Maintenance Loss Estimation**: It presents the historical trends of estimated maintenance losses, which is important for analyzing the impact of refinery maintenance on supply [59]. 3.8 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Inventory Analysis - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: It shows the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory), which helps to understand the inventory situation in the futures market [62]. - **Social Inventory and Factory Inventory**: It presents the historical trends of social inventory (70 samples) and factory inventory (54 samples) of asphalt, which is important for analyzing the overall inventory situation [66]. - **Factory Inventory - to - Stock Ratio**: It shows the historical trends of the factory inventory - to - stock ratio, which helps to understand the inventory management of factories [69]. 3.9 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Import and Export Situation - It presents the historical trends of asphalt export and import volumes, as well as the import price spread of South Korean asphalt, which is important for analyzing the impact of international trade on the domestic asphalt market [72]. 3.10 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Demand - Side Analysis - **Petroleum Coke Production**: It shows the historical production volume trends of petroleum coke, which is related to the demand for asphalt in some industrial applications [78]. - **Apparent Consumption**: It presents the historical trends of asphalt apparent consumption, which helps to understand the overall demand situation [81]. - **Downstream Demand**: It includes the historical trends of highway construction fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, infrastructure investment completion year - on - year, downstream machinery demand (asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly working hours, domestic excavator sales, road roller sales), and various types of asphalt开工rates (heavy - traffic asphalt, construction asphalt, modified asphalt, etc.), which helps to comprehensively analyze the downstream demand for asphalt [84]. 3.11 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - It provides the monthly supply - demand balance sheet of asphalt from January 2024 to September 2025, including production volume, import volume, export volume, social inventory, factory inventory, diluted asphalt port inventory, and downstream demand, which is important for comprehensively analyzing the supply - demand relationship of asphalt [104].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean meal market is expected to enter a moderately bullish and range - bound pattern. The price of soybean meal M2601 is expected to fluctuate between 3060 and 3120. Factors such as the uncertain weather in US soybean - producing areas support the bottom of the US soybean market, but the abundant harvest of South American soybeans and the overall good planting weather in the US limit the rebound height of the US soybean market. In addition, the increase in the arrival of imported Brazilian soybeans in China affects the domestic soybean meal market [8]. - The soybean market is expected to be neutral and range - bound. The price of soybean A2511 is expected to fluctuate between 3900 and 4000. The cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand support the domestic soybean market, while the expected abundant harvest of Brazilian soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean production limit the upward space of the market [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints No relevant content provided. 2. Recent News - The progress of China - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans. The US soybean market is affected by relatively positive data from the US Department of Agriculture report and is expected to fluctuate above the 1000 - point mark. Future trends depend on the growth and harvest of US soybeans, the arrival of imported soybeans, and the follow - up of China - US tariff negotiations [12]. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China remained high in August. The soybean meal inventory of oil mills entered a relatively high level in August. Affected by relatively positive data from the August US Department of Agriculture report and the rise of rapeseed meal, the soybean meal market is short - term moderately bullish and range - bound [12]. - The decrease in domestic pig - farming profits leads to a low expectation of pig replenishment. However, the recent recovery in soybean meal demand supports the price of soybean meal. Due to the uncertainty of China - US trade negotiations, the soybean meal market returns to a range - bound pattern [12]. - The soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills continues to rise. The possibility of weather speculation in US soybean - producing areas and the variables in the China - US tariff war affect the short - term moderately bullish and range - bound pattern of soybean meal. Future trends depend on the clear output of South American soybeans and the follow - up of the China - US tariff war [12]. 3. Long and Short Concerns Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, relatively low soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills, and uncertain weather in US soybean - producing areas [13]. - Bearish factors: high total arrival of imported soybeans in September, the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest, and the continuous expectation of an abundant harvest of South American soybeans [13]. Soybeans - Bullish factors: the cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports the domestic soybean price [14]. - Bearish factors: the continuous expectation of an abundant harvest of Brazilian soybeans, China's increased purchase of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in domestic soybean production [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in East China is 2970, with a basis of - 118, indicating a discount to the futures. The inventory of oil mills is 113.62 million tons, a 5.32% increase from last week and a 15.76% decrease from the same period last year [8]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price is 4200, with a basis of 255, indicating a premium to the futures. The inventory of oil mills is 731.7 million tons, a 5% increase from last week and a 6.17% increase from the same period last year [10]. 5. Position Data - **Soybean Meal**: The long positions of the main contract decreased, and funds flowed out [8]. - **Soybeans**: The long positions of the main contract increased, and funds flowed in [10].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 聚烯烃早报 2025-9-12 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述： • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，8月份，官方PMI为49.4，比上月上升0.1个百分点，财新PMI50.4，较 前月上升0.6个百分点，制造业景气度有所改善。9月9日，以色列袭击卡塔尔首都引发中东地缘 政治再次动荡，8月20日，彭博社报道，针对石化与炼油行业的全面改革方案正在酝酿，拟解决 长期产能过剩。供需端，农膜企业开工缓慢恢复，整体需求仍较往年偏弱，其余包装膜等按需采 购为主。当前LL交割品现货价7200（-20），基本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2601合约基差-9，升贴水比例-0.1%，中性； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存54.5万吨（+3.5），偏空； • 4. 盘面： ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term outlook for Shanghai zinc ZN2510 is a sideways consolidation. The previous trading day saw Shanghai zinc rebound in a volatile manner, with increased trading volume. On the position side, long positions slightly increased while short positions decreased, indicating a slow entry of bulls and the exit of bears. Technically, the price is below the long - term moving average with weak support, the short - term KDJ indicator is rising, and the trend indicator shows that bullish power is rising while bearish power is falling, leading to a stalemate between the two forces [2][19]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Zinc Fundamental Analysis - In April 2025, global zinc plate production was 1.153 million tons, consumption was 1.1302 million tons, with a supply surplus of 22,700 tons. From January to April, production was 4.4514 million tons, consumption was 4.5079 million tons, with a supply shortage of 56,500 tons. From January to April, global zinc ore production was 4.0406 million tons, which is a bullish factor [2]. - The basis is - 30 with a spot price of 22,220, indicating a neutral situation [2]. - On September 11, LME zinc inventory decreased by 200 tons to 50,625 tons, and SHFE zinc inventory warrants increased by 596 tons to 44,925 tons, showing a neutral situation [2]. - The previous day, Shanghai zinc showed a volatile rebound but closed below the 20 - day moving average, with the 20 - day moving average pointing downwards, which is a bearish factor [2]. - The main net position is long, but long positions are decreasing, which is a bullish factor [2]. 3.2 Zinc Futures Market - On September 11, the trading volume of zinc futures reached 143,973 lots, with a trading value of 16.0042543 billion yuan, and the open interest was 222,719 lots, an increase of 970 lots [3]. 3.3 Domestic Spot Market - On September 11, the price of zinc concentrate in Baizhou was 16,820 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan; the price of zinc ingot in Aoshi was 22,220 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; the price of zinc alloy in Ningbo was 22,730 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan; the price of zinc powder in Changsha was 27,400 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan [4]. 3.4 Zinc Ingot Inventory - From September 1 to September 11, the total social inventory of zinc ingots in major Chinese markets increased from 133,300 tons to 144,000 tons [5]. 3.5 Zinc Futures Warehouse Receipts - On September 11, the total SHFE zinc warehouse receipts were 44,925 tons, an increase of 596 tons. Among them, the warehouse receipts in Guangdong increased by 595 tons, and those in Tianjin increased by 1 ton [6]. 3.6 LME Zinc Inventory - On September 11, LME zinc inventory decreased by 200 tons to 50,625 tons, and the cancellation ratio was 30.02% [7]. 3.7 Zinc Concentrate Price - On September 11, the price of 50% - grade zinc concentrate in major domestic cities increased by 70 yuan/ton [8]. 3.8 Zinc Ingot Smelter Price - On September 11, the prices of 0 zinc ingots from major domestic smelters increased by 90 yuan/ton [12]. 3.9 Refined Zinc Production in June 2025 - The planned production in June was 459,700 tons, the actual production was 471,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.67% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.36%. The production exceeded the plan by 2.63%, and the capacity utilization rate was 87.10%. The planned production for July was 470,300 tons [14]. 3.10 Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee - On September 11, the processing fees for 50% - grade zinc concentrate in different domestic regions ranged from 3,400 to 4,200 yuan/metal ton, and the import processing fee for 48% - grade zinc concentrate was 85 - 105 US dollars/dry ton [16]. 3.11 SHFE Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking - For the contract zn2510, the total trading volume of members was 147,015 lots, an increase of 16,212 lots. The total long position was 68,698 lots, an increase of 138 lots, and the total short position was 65,783 lots, a decrease of 2,571 lots [18].

大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 PTA&MEG早报-2025年9月12日 PTA 每日观点 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 PTA： 1、基本面：昨日PTA期货震荡整理，现货市场商谈氛围较清淡，现货基差转弱。9月在01贴水65~75附近商谈成交，价格商谈区 间在4600~4635附近。10月货在01贴水50附近商谈。今日主流现货基差在01-70。中性 2、基差：现货4620，01合约基差-68，盘面升水 中性 3、库存：PTA工厂库存3.84天，环比减少0.06天 偏多 4、盘面：20日均线向上，收盘价收于20日均线之下 偏多 5、主力持仓：净空 空增 偏空 6、预期：近期PTA检修重启并行，现货市场流通性尚可，现货基差走弱且区域基差有所分化，价格上，周 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花早报——2025年9月12日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 棉花： 1、基本面：ICAC9月报：25/26年度产量2550万吨，消费2550万吨。USDA8月报：25/26年度产 量2539.2万吨，消费2568.8万吨，期末库存1609.3万吨。海关：8月纺织品服装出口265.4亿 美元，同比下降5%。7月份我国棉花进口5万吨，同比减少73.2%；棉纱进口11万吨，同比增加 15.38%。农村部8月25/26年度：产量625万吨，进口140万吨，消费740万吨，期末库存823万 吨。中性。 2、基差：现货3128b全国均价15249，基差1414（01合约），升水期货；偏多。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The urea market is currently in a state of overall over - supply in China, with the daily production and operating rate remaining at a relatively high level and the inventory at a high position. Although the international urea price is strong and the export profit is high, the export policy has not been significantly liberalized. The market is expected to be volatile today, influenced by factors such as the international price and domestic demand changes [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: The urea futures market has seen a volatile decline recently. The previous price increase was due to rumors of export liberalization, but market sentiment has since cooled. The daily production and operating rate are high, and inventory is at a high level. Industrial demand from compound fertilizers and melamine has slightly rebounded, while agricultural demand has reached a short - term peak. The overall supply exceeds demand in the domestic market, and the export policy has not been significantly liberalized. The spot price of the delivery product is 1760 (unchanged), and the fundamentals are generally bearish [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2601 contract is 89, with a premium - discount ratio of 5.1%, indicating a bullish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.41 million tons (+0.8), which is a bearish factor [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, suggesting a bearish trend [4]. - **Main Position**: The net long position of the UR main contract is increasing, which is a bullish sign [4]. - **Expectation**: The main contract of urea is expected to fluctuate. With the international urea price being strong and the export policy not being more liberal than expected, the domestic over - supply situation remains obvious [4]. Factors Affecting Urea Price - **Bullish Factors**: The international urea price is strong [5]. - **Bearish Factors**: The operating rate and daily production are at a high level, and domestic demand is weak [5]. - **Main Logic**: The main influencing factors are the international price and the marginal change of domestic demand [5]. Market Data - **Spot Market**: The price of the spot delivery product is 1760, unchanged; the FOB price in China is 2919 [6]. - **Futures Market**: The price of the 01 contract is 1671 (+2), the basis is 89 (-2); the price of the UR05 contract is 1719 (unchanged), and the price of the UR09 contract is 1595 (-18) [6]. - **Inventory Data**: The warehouse receipt is 8897 (unchanged), the UR comprehensive inventory is 1.41 million tons (unchanged), the UR manufacturer's inventory is 917,000 tons (unchanged), and the UR port inventory is 493,000 tons (unchanged) [6]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2018 to 2024, the urea production capacity has been increasing year - by - year, with growth rates ranging from 8.4% to 15.5%. The output, net import volume, apparent consumption, and actual consumption have also shown corresponding changes. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 49.06 million tons, with a growth rate of 11.0% [9].