1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, the re - release of US employment data and the sharp decline of US tech stocks led to a fall in precious metal prices. The US dollar index continued to rise, and the RMB depreciated slightly. The gold and silver prices rebounded before the release of US non - farm data but dropped again after the news that the October non - farm data would not be released. The market expects no interest rate cut this year. The Fed's meeting minutes showed serious differences. The Japanese bond market was sold off, and the yen depreciated. The net long position of Shanghai gold began to rise, while that of Shanghai silver continued to decline. This week, attention should be paid to US PCE data, the progress of the US - Ukraine "28 - point plan", and the interest rate decisions of the central banks of New Zealand and South Korea. Overall, the upward momentum of gold and silver has weakened significantly, and they will mainly fluctuate [14]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Last Week's Review - **Precious Metal Price Changes**: Shanghai Gold 2602 closed down 3.65% at a minimum of 920.5 yuan/gram, COMEX Gold closed down 0.77% at a minimum of 3997.4 yuan/ounce, Shanghai Silver 2602 closed down 6.61%, and COMEX Silver closed down 2.02%. The US dollar index rose 0.87% to a maximum of 100.395, and the RMB depreciated 0.07% [4][14]. - **US Economic Data**: The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week decreased by 8,000 to 220,000, and the number of continued jobless claims reached a 4 - year high. The September non - farm employment population increased by 119,000, more than twice the expected value, but the non - farm employment numbers in July and August were revised down by a total of 33,000. The September unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.4%, the highest since October 2021. The labor participation rate unexpectedly increased, pushing up the unemployment rate. Full - time employment recovered, but industries such as manufacturing and transportation and warehousing continued to lay off workers, and wage growth slowed month - on - month. The October non - farm data will not be released, and the November report will be released after the Fed's December meeting [14][15]. - **Fed's Meeting Minutes**: There were serious differences among participants. Many thought it was not suitable to cut interest rates in December, some were worried about the disorderly decline of the stock market, some thought it might be suitable to cut interest rates in December, and many thought it might be suitable to keep interest rates unchanged this year. Most people thought that interest rate cuts might exacerbate inflation risks. Almost all supported ending the balance - sheet reduction in December, and many supported increasing the proportion of short - term bond holdings [14][16]. - **Japanese Market**: The Japanese bond market was sold off due to concerns about the large - scale fiscal expansion plan of the Kishida government. The 40 - year yield soared to a 2007 high, and the 20 - year and 30 - year yields rose by at least 4 basis points. The yen fell below the key psychological level of 155, and the Nikkei 225 index closed down 3.2%. The market expects the stimulus scale to exceed expectations, and the ruling party even pressured for a supplementary budget of 25 trillion yen [14][16]. - **Other News**: Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman visited the US for the first time in seven years and confirmed that the investment in the US would increase to $1 trillion. The investment agreement includes nearly $142 billion in US defense equipment sales [17]. 3.2 Weekly Review - This week, attention should be paid to the release of US PCE data, China's November official manufacturing PMI, the fact that Trump set November 27 as the deadline for Ukraine to accept the US "28 - point plan", and the interest rate decisions of the central banks of New Zealand and South Korea [14]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Precious Metal Price Indexes**: Data on various precious metal price indexes such as Shanghai Gold 2602, Shanghai Silver 2602, Gold 2512, Silver 2512, SGE Gold T + D, SGE Silver T + D, London Gold Spot, London Silver Spot, the US dollar index, and the US dollar against the offshore RMB are provided, including previous closing prices, highs, lows, changes, and change rates [4]. 3.4 Position Data - **Shanghai Gold Position**: The net long position of Shanghai gold began to rise, with both long and short positions increasing [14]. - **Shanghai Silver Position**: The net long position of Shanghai silver continued to decline, with both long and short positions decreasing [14]. - **CFTC Position**: As of September 23, the net long position of CFTC gold slightly increased, with both long and short positions increasing; the net long position of CFTC silver continued to increase, with both long and short positions decreasing. Due to the US government shutdown, the data has not been updated [32]. - **ETF Position**: The holdings of SPDR Gold ETF and silver ETF have both stopped falling and slightly increased [35][37]. - **Inventory Data**: The inventory of Shanghai gold continued to increase, the inventory of COMEX gold continued to decrease, the inventory of Shanghai silver stopped falling, and the inventory of COMEX silver continued to decrease [39][40][42].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PVC期货早报 2025年11月28日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 供给端来看，据隆众统计，2025年10月PVC产量为212.812万吨，环比增加4.79%；本周样本企业产能利 用率为78.83%，环比增加0.00个百分点；电石法企业产量34.578万吨，环比增加0.65%,乙烯法企业产 量13.466万吨，环比减少0.18%；本周供给压力有所增加；下周预计检修有所减少，预计排产少量增加 需求端来看，下游整体开工率为49.19%，环比减少0.35个百分点，高于历史平均水平；下游型材开工率 为36.3%，环比减少0.66个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游管材开工率为40.2%，环比减少0.39个百 分点，高于历史平均水平；下游薄膜开 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 工业硅期货早报 2025年11月28日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点——工业硅 | | | | | 供给端来看 ， | 上周工业硅供应量为9 | | . | 1万吨 ， | 环比持平 | | 。 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 需求端来看 ， | 上周工业硅需求为8万吨 | | | 环比减少4 ， | . | | 76% . | 需求持续低迷 | | 多 . | | | | | | | | 晶硅库存为27 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report - Report Date: November 28, 2025 - Analyst: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department - Contact Information: 0575 - 85226759 [2][3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The LLDPE market is expected to fluctuate today, with an overall bearish fundamental outlook due to oversupply, a decline in downstream demand, and moderately high industrial inventory. The PP market is also expected to fluctuate, with a bearish fundamental outlook as well [4][6] Summary by Category LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In October, the official PMI was 49, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing sentiment. After the China - US leaders' meeting, the US lifted some restrictions on Chinese goods, and OPEC+ adjusted the crude oil market from undersupply to oversupply in November, leading to a drop in oil prices. The demand for agricultural films has declined, and other film types are mainly driven by rigid demand. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 6770 (-40), with an overall bearish fundamental outlook [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is 71, with a premium - discount ratio of 1.1%, indicating a bullish signal [4] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 50.1 million tons (-5.3), indicating a bearish signal [4] - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, indicating a bearish signal [4] - **Main Position**: The net long position of the LLDPE main contract is increasing, indicating a bullish signal [4] - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to fluctuate, with an oversupply in fundamentals, a decline in downstream demand, and moderately high industrial inventory [4] - **Likely Influencing Factors**: Bullish factors include new sanctions on Russian oil leading to a rebound in oil prices and a phased easing of China - US relations. Bearish factors include weaker - than - expected demand and significant new production capacity coming online in the fourth quarter [5] PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the PMI declined in October, and the oil market situation changed after the China - US meeting. The demand for plastic weaving is average, while the demand for pipes has increased. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 6350 (-0), with an overall bearish fundamental outlook [6] - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is 55, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.9%, indicating a bullish signal [6] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 54.6 million tons (-4.8), considered neutral [6] - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, indicating a bearish signal [6] - **Main Position**: The net short position of the PP main contract is increasing, indicating a bearish signal [6] - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to fluctuate, with an oversupply in fundamentals, average downstream demand, and moderately high industrial inventory [6] - **Likely Influencing Factors**: Similar to LLDPE, bullish factors include oil price rebound and China - US relations easing, while bearish factors include weak demand and new production capacity in the fourth quarter [7] Spot and Futures Market Data - **LLDPE**: The spot price of the delivery product is 6770 (-40), the price of the 01 contract is 6699 (-8), the basis is 71 (-32), the import price in US dollars is 770 (0), the import - converted price is 6712 (-3), and the import spread is 58 (-37). The PE comprehensive factory inventory is 50.1 million tons (-5.3), and the social inventory is 47.1 million tons (-15) [8] - **PP**: The spot price of the delivery product is 6350 (0), the price of the 01 contract is 6295 (30), the basis is 55 (-30), the import price in US dollars is 755 (0), the import - converted price is 6584 (-3), and the import spread is - 234 (3). The PP comprehensive factory inventory is 54.6 million tons (-4.8), and the social inventory is 30.8 million tons (-13) [8] Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2023, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polyethylene generally showed an upward trend, while the import dependence gradually decreased. The production capacity in 2025E is expected to reach 4319.5 million tons [13] - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polypropylene also showed an upward trend, with a gradual decrease in import dependence. The production capacity in 2025E is expected to reach 4906 million tons [15]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PTA, recent supply reduction is more than expected, polyester load is strong, and India's BIS cancellation boosts export demand, reversing the inventory accumulation expectation and potentially leading to phased de - stocking. The spot basis is strong, but the absolute price follows the cost - end. Attention should be paid to device changes [5]. - For MEG, this week's main port arrivals are moderately low, and port inventory may slightly compress early next week. However, there are still plans for large Saudi ships to arrive in early December, and the reduction in external supply is not obvious. The price has fallen to a two - year low, putting pressure on some short - process oil chemical plants. It is expected that the price will fluctuate widely in the short term [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review No relevant content provided. 2. Daily Tips - **PTA**: - Fundamental: Futures fluctuated and closed down, spot market negotiation was average, and the spot basis loosened. Different delivery - time spot had corresponding transaction prices and basis. The current mainstream spot basis is 01 - 36 [5]. - Basis: Spot price is 4615, 01 - contract basis is - 17, and the futures price is at a premium [6]. - Inventory: PTA factory inventory is 3.78 days, a decrease of 0.03 days compared to the previous period [6]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average is upward, but the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average [6]. - Main - force position: Net long position, with long positions decreasing [5]. - Expectation: Supply reduction, strong polyester load, and increased export demand may lead to de - stocking, and the spot basis is strong. The absolute price follows the cost - end [5]. - **MEG**: - Fundamental: On Thursday, the price fluctuated and weakened, and the basis continued to decline. Spot and foreign - exchange prices had corresponding performances [8]. - Basis: Spot price is 3889, 01 - contract basis is 16, and the futures price is at a discount [8]. - Inventory: The total inventory in East China is 70.7 tons, an increase of 7.2 tons compared to the previous period [8]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average [8]. - Main - force position: Net short position, with short positions increasing [8]. - Expectation: Port arrivals are moderately low this week, and inventory may slightly decrease next week. However, there are still arrival plans in early December. The price is at a low level, and it is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [7]. 3. Today's Focus No relevant content provided. 4. Fundamental Data - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Presents PTA's production capacity, output, consumption, demand, inventory, and other data from January 2024 to December 2025, including capacity utilization, supply - demand gap, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [12]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Shows ethylene glycol's total production, new - added capacity, supply, demand, port inventory, and other data from January 2024 to December 2025, including production rate, supply - demand gap, and inventory changes [13]. - **Price**: Lists the prices of various products on November 27 and 26, 2025, including spot and futures prices of PTA, MEG, and related products, as well as processing fees and profits [14]. - **Inventory Analysis**: Displays historical inventory data of PTA, MEG, PET slices, and polyester products, including factory inventory and port inventory [44][46]. - **Polyester Upstream and Downstream Start - up Rates**: Shows the historical start - up rates of PTA, paraxylene, ethylene glycol, polyester, and related industries [56][58][60]. - **Profit Analysis**: Presents the historical profits of PTA, MEG, and polyester products, including processing fees and production profits [64][67][70].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2025-11-28） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 焦煤： 6、预期：原料端价格下跌，焦企利润进一步修复，生产较为积极。但终端需求仍旧疲软，焦钢企业均 有不同程度限产，对原料煤需求有所下降，影响下游观望情绪浓厚，对原料补库积极性不高，多谨慎按 需采购为主，预计短期焦煤价格或偏弱运行。 1、基本面：产地端煤矿复产节奏不及预期，加之近日仍有新停产煤矿，复产时间不明，短期内炼焦煤 供应仍稍显紧张。近期钢材价格震荡偏弱，钢厂利润收缩，压力向上游传导，原料价格上涨压力较大， 炼焦煤市场情绪明显走弱，市场成交逐渐冷清，线上流拍率攀升，成交价继续下挫；中性 2、基差：现货市场价1315，基差244；现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：钢厂库存781.1万吨，港口库存295万 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Gold prices are oscillating due to the glimmer of peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, the suspension of U.S. stocks, and the combined influence of the return of Fed rate - cut expectations and optimistic expectations of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks. The premium of Shanghai gold maintains an oscillation around - 3.2 yuan/gram. The support for gold prices has significantly weakened with the improvement of factors such as Fed rate cuts and Sino - U.S. tariff concerns [4]. - Silver prices are also oscillating. The premium of Shanghai silver converges to 310 yuan/gram, and the sentiment of Shanghai silver remains strong. Silver prices are mainly following gold prices, and influenced by multiple factors, they are oscillating at a high level [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - **Gold**: The U.S. dollar index dropped 0.03% to 99.55, the offshore RMB depreciated slightly against the U.S. dollar to 7.0742, and COMEX gold futures fell 0.3% to $4189.6 per ounce. The basis is - 5.26, with the spot at a discount to the futures. The inventory of gold futures warrants is 90423 kilograms, unchanged. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average. The main net position is long, and the main long position increases [4][5]. - **Silver**: The U.S. dollar index dropped 0.03% to 99.55, the offshore RMB depreciated slightly against the U.S. dollar to 7.0742, and COMEX silver futures rose 0.41% to $53.825 per ounce. The basis is - 27, with the spot at a discount to the futures. The inventory of Shanghai silver futures warrants is 546976 kilograms, with a daily increase of 15765 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average. The main net position is long, but the main long position decreases [6]. 2. Daily Tips - **Gold**: The logic is that after Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change, and the inflation expectation shifted to the economic recession expectation, making it difficult for gold prices to fall. However, the support for gold prices has weakened significantly as factors such as the Fed rate cut and Sino - U.S. tariff concerns have improved [10]. - **Silver**: Silver prices mainly follow gold prices. The tariff concern has a stronger impact on silver prices, and silver prices are prone to an enlarged increase. The factors affecting silver prices are similar to those of gold, with both positive and negative factors coexisting [14]. 3. Today's Focus - Data to be released include Japan's October unemployment rate, November Tokyo CPI, October retail sales, and industrial output preliminary value; France's Q3 GDP final value and October CPI preliminary value; Switzerland's Q3 GDP; India's Q3 GDP; Germany's November CPI preliminary value; Canada's September GDP. The U.S. stock market will close early, and China's November official manufacturing, non - manufacturing, and comprehensive PMI will be released on Sunday [16]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The basis is - 5.26, with the spot at a discount to the futures; the inventory of gold futures warrants is 90423 kilograms, unchanged [5]. - **Silver**: The basis is - 27, with the spot at a discount to the futures; the inventory of Shanghai silver futures warrants is 546976 kilograms, with a daily increase of 15765 kilograms [6]. 5. Position Data - **Gold**: On November 27, 2025, the long position volume of the top 20 in Shanghai gold decreased by 1242 to 166495, a decrease of 0.74%; the short position volume decreased by 938 to 60457, a decrease of 1.53%; the net position decreased by 304 to 106038, a decrease of 0.29% [30]. - **Silver**: On November 27, 2025, the long position volume of the top 20 in Shanghai silver increased by 27850 to 389587, an increase of 7.70%; the short position volume increased by 27026 to 296616, an increase of 10.02%; the net position increased by 824 to 92971, an increase of 0.89% [31]. - **ETF Position**: The SPDR gold ETF position shows an oscillating increase, and the silver ETF position shows an oscillating decrease but remains higher than the same period in the past two years [33][36]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The Shanghai gold warehouse receipts show a slight increase, the COMEX gold warehouse receipts continue to decrease but remain at a high level. The Shanghai silver warehouse receipts show a slight increase and are at the lowest level in the past six years, and the COMEX silver warehouse receipts continue to decrease [37][38][40].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The overall view of Shanghai Nickel is bearish, with prices oscillating around the 20 - day moving average. The fundamentals show potential supply surplus, and various indicators such as inventory and position also lean towards the bearish side [2]. - The view of stainless steel is neutral, with prices having a wide - range oscillation around the 20 - day moving average. The cost is decreasing, and the inventory is slightly rising [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel Price Overview - On November 27, the price of Shanghai Nickel's main contract was 116,900 yuan, down 360 yuan from the previous day; the price of LME Nickel was 14,840 US dollars, down 5 US dollars. The price of stainless steel's main contract was 12,410 yuan, down 45 yuan [11]. - The price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 119,000 yuan, down 850 yuan; the price of cold - rolled 304*2B stainless steel remained unchanged in multiple regions [11]. Nickel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - As of November 21, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's nickel inventory was 39,795 tons, with the futures inventory at 33,785 tons, decreasing by 778 tons and 1,242 tons respectively [13]. - On November 27, LME nickel inventory was 255,450 tons, an increase of 930 tons; Shanghai Nickel's warehouse receipts were 33,548 tons, a decrease of 396 tons; the total inventory was 288,998 tons, an increase of 534 tons [14]. Stainless Steel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - On November 21, the inventory in Wuxi was 574,000 tons, in Foshan was 353,400 tons, and the national inventory was 1,071,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12,000 tons. The inventory of the 300 - series was 658,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12,000 tons [18]. - On November 27, stainless steel warehouse receipts were 63,473 tons, a decrease of 292 tons [19]. Nickel Ore and Ferronickel Prices - On November 27, the price of laterite nickel ore CIF with Ni1.5% was 57 US dollars per wet ton, and that with Ni0.9% was 29 US dollars per wet ton, both remaining unchanged [21]. - The high - nickel ferronickel price was 884 yuan per nickel point, a decrease of 1 yuan; the low - nickel ferronickel price was 3,200 yuan per ton, remaining unchanged [21]. Stainless Steel Production Cost - The traditional production cost of stainless steel was 12,469 yuan, the production cost using scrap steel was 12,766 yuan, and the production cost using low - nickel and pure nickel was 16,213 yuan [23]. Nickel Import Cost Calculation - The converted import price of nickel was 118,914 yuan per ton [25].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The report anticipates that the Shanghai Zinc ZN2601 will experience a weakening trend in a fluctuating manner. The market's short - term outlook is also expected to be weakening due to factors such as the long - term average price support, the short - term KDJ index rising in the weak zone, and the trend indicator showing an increase in bullish power and a decrease in bearish power, with the two forces becoming more evenly matched. [2][19] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Analysis - In September 2025, the global refined zinc production was 1.1935 million tons, consumption was 1.2292 million tons, resulting in a supply shortage of 35,700 tons. From January to September, the global zinc sheet production was 10.3632 million tons, consumption was 10.7369 million tons, with a supply shortage of 373,700 tons. In September, the global zinc ore production was 1.1633 million tons, and from January to September, it was 9.9647 million tons, indicating a positive fundamental situation. [2] 2. Basis Analysis - The spot price was 22,550, with a basis of + 135, suggesting a positive situation. [2] 3. Inventory Analysis - On November 27, the LME zinc inventory increased by 875 tons to 50,800 tons compared to the previous day, while the SHFE zinc inventory warrants decreased by 2,502 tons to 69,118 tons, presenting a neutral situation. The total social inventory of zinc ingots in major domestic markets decreased from 162,400 tons on November 17 to 140,400 tons on November 27. [2][5] 4. Market Trend Analysis - The previous day, Shanghai Zinc showed a fluctuating downward trend, closing below the 20 - day moving average, with the 20 - day moving average trending upward, indicating a neutral situation. [2] 5. Main Position Analysis - The main players held a net short position, with an increase in short positions, suggesting a negative situation. [2] 6. Zinc Futures Market on November 27 - The total trading volume of zinc futures on that day was 172,956 lots, with a total trading value of 1.94385952 billion yuan. The open interest was 189,741 lots, a decrease of 329 lots. [3] 7. Domestic Spot Market on November 27 - The domestic zinc concentrate spot TC was 2,300 yuan/metal ton for domestic products and 80 US dollars/dry ton for imported products. The price of 0 zinc ingots in different regions ranged from 22,310 - 22,660 yuan/ton. [4] 8. Zinc Ingot Inventory in Major Markets from November 17 - 27 - The total inventory decreased from 162,400 tons on November 17 to 140,400 tons on November 27, a decrease of 19,400 tons compared to November 20 and 11,200 tons compared to November 24. [5] 9. SHFE Zinc Warrants Report on November 27 - The total SHFE zinc warrants were 69,118 tons, a decrease of 2,502 tons compared to the previous day. [6] 10. LME Zinc Inventory on November 27 - The LME zinc inventory was 50,800 tons, an increase of 875 tons compared to the previous day, with registered warrants of 45,325 tons and cancelled warrants of 5,475 tons, and the cancellation ratio was 10.78%. [8] 11. Domestic Refined Zinc Production in October 2025 - The actual production was 524,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.87%, a year - on - year increase of 18.38%, and a 2.88% increase compared to the planned value. The capacity utilization rate was 73.33%, and the planned production for November was 522,300 tons. [15] 12. Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee on November 27 - The processing fees for zinc concentrates with a 50% grade in different regions ranged from 2,100 - 2,800 yuan/metal ton for domestic products and 70 - 90 US dollars/dry ton for imported products. [17] 13. Shanghai Futures Exchange Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking on November 27 - The total trading volume of members was 179,536 lots, an increase of 31,801 lots. The total long position was 71,497 lots, a decrease of 406 lots, and the total short position was 71,943 lots, an increase of 1,795 lots. [18]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The global sugar market is expected to have a surplus in the 25/26 season, with different institutions having varying forecasts for the surplus volume. The domestic Zhengzhou sugar has a short - term technical rebound trend, and considering the approaching delivery of the 01 contract, trading is recommended to shift to the 05 contract, with an intraday trading idea of slightly bullish and oscillating. [4][5][9] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Previous Day's Review - Not provided in the content. 3.2 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: ISO predicts a global sugar surplus of 163 tons in the 25/26 season, DATAGRO reduces the surplus forecast to 100 tons, Czarnikow raises it to 740 tons, and StoneX predicts a surplus of 370 tons. As of the end of August 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season was 1116.21 million tons, cumulative sales were 10 million tons, and the sales rate was 89.6%. In October 2025, China imported 750,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 210,000 tons, and imported 115,500 tons of syrup and premixed powder, a year - on - year decrease of 110,500 tons. [4] - **Basis**: The Liuzhou spot price is 5610, and the basis for the 05 contract is 285, with the spot price at a premium to the futures price. [6] - **Inventory**: As of the end of August in the 24/25 season, the industrial inventory was 1.16 million tons. [6] - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average. [6] - **Main Position**: The net short position has increased, and the main trend is bearish. [6] - **Likely Influencing Factors**: Positive factors include good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, and the change of the US cola formula to use sucrose. Negative factors include increased global sugar production, a global surplus in the new season, the opening of the import profit window due to the fall of foreign sugar prices to around 14 cents per pound, and increased import impact. [7] - **Expectation**: Foreign sugar has started a short - term rebound, and domestic Zhengzhou sugar has slightly rebounded. Considering the approaching delivery of the 01 contract, trading is recommended to shift to the 05 contract, and there may be a short - term technical rebound trend, with an intraday trading idea of slightly bullish and oscillating. [5][9] 3.3 Today's Focus - Not provided in the content. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **25/26 Season Supply - Demand Forecast**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the global sugar supply - demand balance in the 25/26 season. For example, ISO predicts a surplus of 163 tons, StoneX predicts a surplus of 277 tons, Czarnikow predicts a surplus of 740 tons, and Covrig Analytics predicts a surplus of 420 tons. [4][9][34] - **China's Sugar Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: From 2024/25 to 2025/26 (November forecast), the sugar production is expected to increase from 9.96 million tons to 11.7 million tons, consumption will be around 15.7 - 15.9 million tons, and the balance will change from a deficit of 940,000 tons to a surplus of 820,000 tons. The international sugar price is predicted to be in the range of 14.0 - 18.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be between 5500 - 6000 yuan per ton. [36] - **Import Cost of Processed Raw Sugar**: In late October 2025, the average price of raw sugar was about 14.23 cents per pound, and the cost of out - of - quota imports was about 5086 yuan per ton, with considerable import profits. [42] 3.5 Position Data - Not provided in the content.