交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2025-11-28） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 焦煤： 6、预期：原料端价格下跌，焦企利润进一步修复，生产较为积极。但终端需求仍旧疲软，焦钢企业均 有不同程度限产，对原料煤需求有所下降，影响下游观望情绪浓厚，对原料补库积极性不高，多谨慎按 需采购为主，预计短期焦煤价格或偏弱运行。 1、基本面：产地端煤矿复产节奏不及预期，加之近日仍有新停产煤矿，复产时间不明，短期内炼焦煤 供应仍稍显紧张。近期钢材价格震荡偏弱，钢厂利润收缩，压力向上游传导，原料价格上涨压力较大， 炼焦煤市场情绪明显走弱，市场成交逐渐冷清，线上流拍率攀升，成交价继续下挫；中性 2、基差：现货市场价1315，基差244；现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：钢厂库存781.1万吨，港口库存295万 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Gold prices are oscillating due to the glimmer of peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, the suspension of U.S. stocks, and the combined influence of the return of Fed rate - cut expectations and optimistic expectations of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks. The premium of Shanghai gold maintains an oscillation around - 3.2 yuan/gram. The support for gold prices has significantly weakened with the improvement of factors such as Fed rate cuts and Sino - U.S. tariff concerns [4]. - Silver prices are also oscillating. The premium of Shanghai silver converges to 310 yuan/gram, and the sentiment of Shanghai silver remains strong. Silver prices are mainly following gold prices, and influenced by multiple factors, they are oscillating at a high level [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - **Gold**: The U.S. dollar index dropped 0.03% to 99.55, the offshore RMB depreciated slightly against the U.S. dollar to 7.0742, and COMEX gold futures fell 0.3% to $4189.6 per ounce. The basis is - 5.26, with the spot at a discount to the futures. The inventory of gold futures warrants is 90423 kilograms, unchanged. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average. The main net position is long, and the main long position increases [4][5]. - **Silver**: The U.S. dollar index dropped 0.03% to 99.55, the offshore RMB depreciated slightly against the U.S. dollar to 7.0742, and COMEX silver futures rose 0.41% to $53.825 per ounce. The basis is - 27, with the spot at a discount to the futures. The inventory of Shanghai silver futures warrants is 546976 kilograms, with a daily increase of 15765 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average. The main net position is long, but the main long position decreases [6]. 2. Daily Tips - **Gold**: The logic is that after Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change, and the inflation expectation shifted to the economic recession expectation, making it difficult for gold prices to fall. However, the support for gold prices has weakened significantly as factors such as the Fed rate cut and Sino - U.S. tariff concerns have improved [10]. - **Silver**: Silver prices mainly follow gold prices. The tariff concern has a stronger impact on silver prices, and silver prices are prone to an enlarged increase. The factors affecting silver prices are similar to those of gold, with both positive and negative factors coexisting [14]. 3. Today's Focus - Data to be released include Japan's October unemployment rate, November Tokyo CPI, October retail sales, and industrial output preliminary value; France's Q3 GDP final value and October CPI preliminary value; Switzerland's Q3 GDP; India's Q3 GDP; Germany's November CPI preliminary value; Canada's September GDP. The U.S. stock market will close early, and China's November official manufacturing, non - manufacturing, and comprehensive PMI will be released on Sunday [16]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The basis is - 5.26, with the spot at a discount to the futures; the inventory of gold futures warrants is 90423 kilograms, unchanged [5]. - **Silver**: The basis is - 27, with the spot at a discount to the futures; the inventory of Shanghai silver futures warrants is 546976 kilograms, with a daily increase of 15765 kilograms [6]. 5. Position Data - **Gold**: On November 27, 2025, the long position volume of the top 20 in Shanghai gold decreased by 1242 to 166495, a decrease of 0.74%; the short position volume decreased by 938 to 60457, a decrease of 1.53%; the net position decreased by 304 to 106038, a decrease of 0.29% [30]. - **Silver**: On November 27, 2025, the long position volume of the top 20 in Shanghai silver increased by 27850 to 389587, an increase of 7.70%; the short position volume increased by 27026 to 296616, an increase of 10.02%; the net position increased by 824 to 92971, an increase of 0.89% [31]. - **ETF Position**: The SPDR gold ETF position shows an oscillating increase, and the silver ETF position shows an oscillating decrease but remains higher than the same period in the past two years [33][36]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The Shanghai gold warehouse receipts show a slight increase, the COMEX gold warehouse receipts continue to decrease but remain at a high level. The Shanghai silver warehouse receipts show a slight increase and are at the lowest level in the past six years, and the COMEX silver warehouse receipts continue to decrease [37][38][40].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The overall view of Shanghai Nickel is bearish, with prices oscillating around the 20 - day moving average. The fundamentals show potential supply surplus, and various indicators such as inventory and position also lean towards the bearish side [2]. - The view of stainless steel is neutral, with prices having a wide - range oscillation around the 20 - day moving average. The cost is decreasing, and the inventory is slightly rising [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel Price Overview - On November 27, the price of Shanghai Nickel's main contract was 116,900 yuan, down 360 yuan from the previous day; the price of LME Nickel was 14,840 US dollars, down 5 US dollars. The price of stainless steel's main contract was 12,410 yuan, down 45 yuan [11]. - The price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 119,000 yuan, down 850 yuan; the price of cold - rolled 304*2B stainless steel remained unchanged in multiple regions [11]. Nickel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - As of November 21, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's nickel inventory was 39,795 tons, with the futures inventory at 33,785 tons, decreasing by 778 tons and 1,242 tons respectively [13]. - On November 27, LME nickel inventory was 255,450 tons, an increase of 930 tons; Shanghai Nickel's warehouse receipts were 33,548 tons, a decrease of 396 tons; the total inventory was 288,998 tons, an increase of 534 tons [14]. Stainless Steel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - On November 21, the inventory in Wuxi was 574,000 tons, in Foshan was 353,400 tons, and the national inventory was 1,071,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12,000 tons. The inventory of the 300 - series was 658,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12,000 tons [18]. - On November 27, stainless steel warehouse receipts were 63,473 tons, a decrease of 292 tons [19]. Nickel Ore and Ferronickel Prices - On November 27, the price of laterite nickel ore CIF with Ni1.5% was 57 US dollars per wet ton, and that with Ni0.9% was 29 US dollars per wet ton, both remaining unchanged [21]. - The high - nickel ferronickel price was 884 yuan per nickel point, a decrease of 1 yuan; the low - nickel ferronickel price was 3,200 yuan per ton, remaining unchanged [21]. Stainless Steel Production Cost - The traditional production cost of stainless steel was 12,469 yuan, the production cost using scrap steel was 12,766 yuan, and the production cost using low - nickel and pure nickel was 16,213 yuan [23]. Nickel Import Cost Calculation - The converted import price of nickel was 118,914 yuan per ton [25].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The report anticipates that the Shanghai Zinc ZN2601 will experience a weakening trend in a fluctuating manner. The market's short - term outlook is also expected to be weakening due to factors such as the long - term average price support, the short - term KDJ index rising in the weak zone, and the trend indicator showing an increase in bullish power and a decrease in bearish power, with the two forces becoming more evenly matched. [2][19] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Analysis - In September 2025, the global refined zinc production was 1.1935 million tons, consumption was 1.2292 million tons, resulting in a supply shortage of 35,700 tons. From January to September, the global zinc sheet production was 10.3632 million tons, consumption was 10.7369 million tons, with a supply shortage of 373,700 tons. In September, the global zinc ore production was 1.1633 million tons, and from January to September, it was 9.9647 million tons, indicating a positive fundamental situation. [2] 2. Basis Analysis - The spot price was 22,550, with a basis of + 135, suggesting a positive situation. [2] 3. Inventory Analysis - On November 27, the LME zinc inventory increased by 875 tons to 50,800 tons compared to the previous day, while the SHFE zinc inventory warrants decreased by 2,502 tons to 69,118 tons, presenting a neutral situation. The total social inventory of zinc ingots in major domestic markets decreased from 162,400 tons on November 17 to 140,400 tons on November 27. [2][5] 4. Market Trend Analysis - The previous day, Shanghai Zinc showed a fluctuating downward trend, closing below the 20 - day moving average, with the 20 - day moving average trending upward, indicating a neutral situation. [2] 5. Main Position Analysis - The main players held a net short position, with an increase in short positions, suggesting a negative situation. [2] 6. Zinc Futures Market on November 27 - The total trading volume of zinc futures on that day was 172,956 lots, with a total trading value of 1.94385952 billion yuan. The open interest was 189,741 lots, a decrease of 329 lots. [3] 7. Domestic Spot Market on November 27 - The domestic zinc concentrate spot TC was 2,300 yuan/metal ton for domestic products and 80 US dollars/dry ton for imported products. The price of 0 zinc ingots in different regions ranged from 22,310 - 22,660 yuan/ton. [4] 8. Zinc Ingot Inventory in Major Markets from November 17 - 27 - The total inventory decreased from 162,400 tons on November 17 to 140,400 tons on November 27, a decrease of 19,400 tons compared to November 20 and 11,200 tons compared to November 24. [5] 9. SHFE Zinc Warrants Report on November 27 - The total SHFE zinc warrants were 69,118 tons, a decrease of 2,502 tons compared to the previous day. [6] 10. LME Zinc Inventory on November 27 - The LME zinc inventory was 50,800 tons, an increase of 875 tons compared to the previous day, with registered warrants of 45,325 tons and cancelled warrants of 5,475 tons, and the cancellation ratio was 10.78%. [8] 11. Domestic Refined Zinc Production in October 2025 - The actual production was 524,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.87%, a year - on - year increase of 18.38%, and a 2.88% increase compared to the planned value. The capacity utilization rate was 73.33%, and the planned production for November was 522,300 tons. [15] 12. Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee on November 27 - The processing fees for zinc concentrates with a 50% grade in different regions ranged from 2,100 - 2,800 yuan/metal ton for domestic products and 70 - 90 US dollars/dry ton for imported products. [17] 13. Shanghai Futures Exchange Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking on November 27 - The total trading volume of members was 179,536 lots, an increase of 31,801 lots. The total long position was 71,497 lots, a decrease of 406 lots, and the total short position was 71,943 lots, an increase of 1,795 lots. [18]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The global sugar market is expected to have a surplus in the 25/26 season, with different institutions having varying forecasts for the surplus volume. The domestic Zhengzhou sugar has a short - term technical rebound trend, and considering the approaching delivery of the 01 contract, trading is recommended to shift to the 05 contract, with an intraday trading idea of slightly bullish and oscillating. [4][5][9] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Previous Day's Review - Not provided in the content. 3.2 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: ISO predicts a global sugar surplus of 163 tons in the 25/26 season, DATAGRO reduces the surplus forecast to 100 tons, Czarnikow raises it to 740 tons, and StoneX predicts a surplus of 370 tons. As of the end of August 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season was 1116.21 million tons, cumulative sales were 10 million tons, and the sales rate was 89.6%. In October 2025, China imported 750,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 210,000 tons, and imported 115,500 tons of syrup and premixed powder, a year - on - year decrease of 110,500 tons. [4] - **Basis**: The Liuzhou spot price is 5610, and the basis for the 05 contract is 285, with the spot price at a premium to the futures price. [6] - **Inventory**: As of the end of August in the 24/25 season, the industrial inventory was 1.16 million tons. [6] - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average. [6] - **Main Position**: The net short position has increased, and the main trend is bearish. [6] - **Likely Influencing Factors**: Positive factors include good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, and the change of the US cola formula to use sucrose. Negative factors include increased global sugar production, a global surplus in the new season, the opening of the import profit window due to the fall of foreign sugar prices to around 14 cents per pound, and increased import impact. [7] - **Expectation**: Foreign sugar has started a short - term rebound, and domestic Zhengzhou sugar has slightly rebounded. Considering the approaching delivery of the 01 contract, trading is recommended to shift to the 05 contract, and there may be a short - term technical rebound trend, with an intraday trading idea of slightly bullish and oscillating. [5][9] 3.3 Today's Focus - Not provided in the content. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **25/26 Season Supply - Demand Forecast**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the global sugar supply - demand balance in the 25/26 season. For example, ISO predicts a surplus of 163 tons, StoneX predicts a surplus of 277 tons, Czarnikow predicts a surplus of 740 tons, and Covrig Analytics predicts a surplus of 420 tons. [4][9][34] - **China's Sugar Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: From 2024/25 to 2025/26 (November forecast), the sugar production is expected to increase from 9.96 million tons to 11.7 million tons, consumption will be around 15.7 - 15.9 million tons, and the balance will change from a deficit of 940,000 tons to a surplus of 820,000 tons. The international sugar price is predicted to be in the range of 14.0 - 18.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be between 5500 - 6000 yuan per ton. [36] - **Import Cost of Processed Raw Sugar**: In late October 2025, the average price of raw sugar was about 14.23 cents per pound, and the cost of out - of - quota imports was about 5086 yuan per ton, with considerable import profits. [42] 3.5 Position Data - Not provided in the content.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, with high supply, declining terminal demand, and high inventory levels. The supply - demand mismatch in the industry has not been effectively improved. Short - term, it is expected to fluctuate and move downward mainly [2][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily View - Fundamental analysis shows that alkali plant production is at a high level, with the expected commissioning of Yuangxing Phase II before the end of the year, leading to an expected abundant supply. The daily melting volume of downstream float glass and photovoltaic glass continues to decline, and soda ash plant inventories are at historical highs, indicating a bearish outlook [2]. - The basis is - 36 yuan, with futures at a premium to spot, which is bearish [2]. - National soda ash plant inventories are 1.5874 million tons, a 3.47% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average, bearish [2]. - The price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, bearish [2]. - The net position of the main players is short, and short positions are decreasing, bearish [2]. - Overall, the short - term outlook for soda ash is expected to be mainly in a fluctuating and downward trend [2]. 3.2 Influencing Factors 3.2.1 Bullish Factors - Equipment problems have led to reduced maintenance in enterprises, and the recovery of soda ash supply is slow [3]. 3.2.2 Bearish Factors - Since 2023, soda ash production capacity has expanded significantly, and there are still large commissioning plans this year, with industry production at historical highs [4]. - The downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy soda ash has cut production, leading to a weakening demand for soda ash [4]. 3.3 Main Logic - The main logic is that soda ash supply is at a high level, terminal demand is declining, inventory is at a high level compared to the same period, and the supply - demand mismatch in the industry has not been effectively improved [5]. 3.4 Soda Ash Futures Market | Day Session | Main Contract Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Low - end Price of Heavy Soda Ash in Shahe (yuan/ton) | Main Basis (yuan/ton) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous Value | 1175 | 1140 | - 35 | | Current Value | 1176 | 1140 | - 36 | | Change Rate | 0.09% | 0.00% | 2.86% | [6] 3.5 Soda Ash Spot Market The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market is 1140 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [12]. 3.6 Fundamentals - Supply - The profit of heavy soda ash production using the North China ammonia - soda process is - 118.50 yuan/ton, and that using the East China co - production process is - 221.5 yuan/ton, at historical lows [16]. - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash is 84.80% [19]. - The weekly soda ash production is 720,900 tons, including 396,200 tons of heavy soda ash, at historical highs [21]. - From 2023 to 2025, there have been significant expansions in soda ash production capacity, with a total planned new capacity of 1.57 billion tons, and 100 million tons have been actually commissioned in 2025 [22]. 3.7 Fundamentals - Demand - The weekly soda ash production and sales rate is 100.93% [25]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass is 158,100 tons, and the operating rate is 74.85% [28]. 3.8 Fundamentals - Inventory National soda ash plant inventories are 1.5874 million tons, a 3.47% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [35]. 3.9 Fundamentals - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The historical supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash shows changes in effective capacity, production, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, and supply - demand differences from 2017 to 2024E, as well as the growth rates of various indicators [36].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The glass market has a weak fundamental situation, and it is expected to show a weak and volatile trend in the short term. The supply of glass has stabilized at a low level, downstream deep - processing factory orders are dismal, and glass factory inventories are rising [2][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily View - The fundamentals show that production profit repair is weak, supply contraction is less than expected, downstream deep - processing orders are weak due to the real estate drag, and inventory is at a historical high in the same period [2]. - The basis is - 53 yuan, with futures at a premium to spot [2]. - The national floating glass enterprise inventory is 62.362 million weight boxes, a 1.49% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average [2]. - The price is running below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward [2]. - The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing [2]. 3.2 Influence Factor Summary - **Likely to be favorable**: "Coal - to - gas" in the Shahe area and industry cold repairs lead to production losses [4]. - **Likely to be unfavorable**: Real estate terminal demand is still weak, and the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low in the same period. The capital collection of the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processing factories are cautious, mainly digesting raw glass inventories [5]. 3.3 Main Logic and Risk Points - **Main logic**: Glass supply has stabilized at a low level, downstream deep - processing factory orders are dismal, and glass factory inventories are rising, so it is expected to show a weak and volatile trend at a low level [6]. - **Risk points**: The intensity of the "anti - involution" policy exceeds expectations [6]. 3.4 Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 1041 yuan/ton, with a 0.39% increase; the spot price of Shahe Safety large - plate glass is 988 yuan/ton, with no change; the main basis is - 53 yuan, with an 8.16% increase [7]. 3.5 Glass Spot Market The market price of 5mm white glass large - plate in Hebei Shahe, the spot benchmark, is 988 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [12]. 3.6 Fundamental Analysis - **Cost side**: No detailed data is provided in the text. - **Production side**: The number of operating floating glass production lines nationwide is 222, with an operating rate of 74.85%, and the production line operating number is at a historical low in the same period. The daily melting volume is 158,100 tons, and the production capacity is at a historical low in the same period [23][25]. - **Demand side**: In September 2025, the apparent consumption of floating glass was 4.7082 million tons [28]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of national floating glass enterprises is 62.362 million weight boxes, a 1.49% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average [2][41]. - **Supply - demand balance sheet**: Data from 2017 - 2024E shows the production, consumption, production growth rate, consumption growth rate, and net import ratio of floating glass. For example, in 2024E, the production is 55.1 million tons, the consumption is 53.1 million tons, and the production growth rate is 3.94% [42].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Urea Morning Report [2] - Date: November 28, 2025 [2] - Analyst: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The current daily production and operating rate of urea have rebounded again, and the comprehensive inventory has declined. The agricultural demand has increased due to the influence of Northeast China, while the industrial demand is mainly based on demand. The operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine have increased year-on-year. With the commissioning of new production capacities such as Xinjiang Zhongneng in the middle of the month, the pressure on the supply side has increased again. The large price difference between domestic and international markets for exports has improved compared with the previous period, boosting the sentiment of the futures market. However, the domestic urea market still has an overall oversupply situation. The spot price of the delivery product is 1650 (+20), and the overall fundamentals are neutral. It is expected that the urea futures market will fluctuate today [4]. - The positive factor is the improvement in exports, while the negative factors are the domestic oversupply and the commissioning of new production capacities. The main logic lies in international prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5]. Group 4: Summary by Relevant Catalog Entries Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: Daily production and operating rate have rebounded, comprehensive inventory has declined. Agricultural demand has increased, industrial demand is based on demand. New production capacity commissioning increases supply pressure. Exports have improved, market sentiment is boosted, but overall supply exceeds demand. Spot price of delivery product is 1650 (+20), fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2601 contract is -18, and the premium/discount ratio is -1.1%, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.537 million tons (-28,000), a bearish factor [4]. - **Futures Market**: The 20-day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20-day line, a bullish signal [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, a bearish sign [4]. - **Expectation**: The urea futures market is expected to fluctuate today, with industrial demand based on demand, agricultural demand increasing, and improved exports boosting market sentiment, but the domestic oversupply situation remains obvious [4]. Spot and Futures Market Quotes | Region | Spot Price | Price Change | Futures Contract | Futures Price | Price Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Spot Delivery Product | 1650 | +20 | 01 Contract | 1668 | +14 | | Shandong Spot | 1650 | +20 | Basis | -18 | +6 | | Henan Spot | 1650 | 0 | UR01 | 1668 | +14 | | FOB China | 2833 | - | UR05 | 1727 | +9 | | - | - | - | UR09 | 1736 | +4 | [6] Supply and Demand Balance Sheet - Urea | Year | Production Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Imports | PP Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | - | 22.455 billion | - | 19.5681 billion | 4.4838 billion | 18.6% | 24.0519 billion | 236.6 million | 24.0519 billion | - | | 2019 | - | 24.455 billion | 8.9% | 22.4 billion | 4.8794 billion | 17.9% | 27.2794 billion | 378.6 million | 27.1374 billion | 12.8% | | 2020 | - | 28.255 billion | 15.5% | 25.8098 billion | 6.1912 billion | 19.3% | 32.001 billion | 378.3 million | 32.0013 billion | 17.9% | | 2021 | - | 31.485 billion | 11.4% | 29.2799 billion | 3.5241 billion | 10.7% | 32.804 billion | 357.2 million | 32.8251 billion | 2.6% | | 2022 | - | 34.135 billion | 8.4% | 29.6546 billion | 3.3537 billion | 10.2% | 33.0083 billion | 446.2 million | 32.9193 billion | 0.3% | | 2023 | - | 38.935 billion | 14.1% | 31.9359 billion | 2.9313 billion | 8.4% | 34.8672 billion | 446.5 million | 34.8669 billion | 5.9% | | 2024 | - | 44.185 billion | 13.5% | 34.25 billion | 3.6 billion | 9.5% | 37.85 billion | 514 million | 37.7825 billion | 8.4% | | 2025E | - | 49.06 billion | 11.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term demand for low - sulfur and high - sulfur fuel oil around the Singapore hub is expected to remain weak, with buying interest fluctuating. The downstream market is oversupplied, and short - term fuel oil will continue to operate at a low level. FU2601 will operate in the range of 2440 - 2480, and LU2602 will operate in the range of 3000 - 3060 [3] - The supply of Asian low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to remain healthy, but it will limit the price increase potential in the short term, especially when the downstream bunker market demand is weak. High - sulfur fuel oil spot demand is mostly still light, mainly supported by regular contract nominations [3] Summary According to the Directory 1. Daily Prompt - Futures prices: The current fuel oil futures prices show a decline. The FU main contract futures price dropped from 2497 to 2451, a decrease of 46 or 1.84%. The LU main contract futures price dropped from 3029 to 2992, a decrease of 37 or 1.22% [5] - Spot prices: The spot prices of various types of fuel oil in different regions have decreased to varying degrees. For example, the price of Zhoushan high - sulfur fuel oil decreased from 437.00 to 431.00, a decrease of 6.00 or 1.37% [6] - Price range: FU2601 is expected to operate in the range of 2440 - 2480, and LU2602 in the range of 3000 - 3060 [3] 2. Multi - and Short - term Concerns - Bullish factors: Russian fuel oil export restrictions and the cancellation of US - Russia talks and sanctions on Russian oil - related enterprises [4] - Bearish factors: The demand side optimism remains to be verified, and the upstream crude oil is under pressure [4] 3. Fundamental Data - Supply and demand: Asian low - sulfur fuel oil supply is expected to be healthy, but short - term price increase potential is limited due to weak downstream demand. High - sulfur fuel oil spot demand is light, mainly supported by contract nominations [3] - Basis: The basis of Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil is - 10 yuan/ton, and that of Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil is 59 yuan/ton, with the spot being nearly flat to the futures [3] - Inventory: Singapore fuel oil inventory in the week of November 19 was 2344.9 million barrels, an increase of 257 million barrels [3][8] - Market trend: The price is below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward [3] - Main positions: High - sulfur main positions are short, with short positions decreasing; low - sulfur main positions are long, with long positions decreasing [3] 4. Spread Data - High - and low - sulfur futures spread: The chart shows the spread between high - and low - sulfur futures, but no specific numerical analysis is provided [10] 5. Inventory Data - Singapore fuel oil inventory has changed over time. For example, on September 10, it was 2303.9 million barrels, and on November 19, it was 2344.9 million barrels, with an increase of 257 million barrels compared to the previous period [8]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-11-27甲醇早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 检修状况 甲醇2601： 1、基本面：产区甲醇工厂无库存压力，但港口高库存对整体行情有压制作用，预计本周国内甲醇震荡整理，且部分地 区不排除走跌可能。内地方面来看，虽然当前产区工厂暂无库存压力，但市场消息称托县甲醇装置近期有重启计划，内 地重回高开工弱需求的供应格局，以及港口进口货源持续倒流内地，业者对后市心态谨慎，后期或震荡偏弱。港口方面， 伊朗多套装置停车兑现和港口库存明显去化，才能构成行情反转的支撑点，在此达成之前，期现货深度磨底。预计本周 港口甲醇市场延续探底，不过目前绝对价格来看，预计下方空间有限；关注伊朗装置检修实际落地节点；中性 2 ...