交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花早报——2025年9月15日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 棉花： 1、基本面：ICAC9月报：25/26年度产量2550万吨，消费2550万吨。USDA9月报：25/26年度产 量2562.2万吨，消费2587.2万吨，期末库存1592.5万吨。海关：8月纺织品服装出口265.4亿 美元，同比下降5%。7月份我国棉花进口5万吨，同比减少73.2%；棉纱进口11万吨，同比增加 15.38%。农村部8月25/26年度：产量625万吨，进口140万吨，消费740万吨，期末库存823万 吨。中性。 2、基差：现货3128b全国均价15248，基差1388（01合约），升水期货；偏多。 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **沪镍**: The nickel price showed a strong trend last week, but spot trading remained sluggish. In the long - term, the oversupply pattern remains unchanged. The Shanghai nickel 2510 contract is expected to fluctuate, with support from the cost line below [2]. - **不锈钢**: The spot price of stainless steel remained flat. The cost line is firm, and inventory continued to decline. The stainless steel 2511 contract is expected to fluctuate widely around the 20 - day moving average [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Nickel and Stainless Steel Price Overview - **Futures Prices**: On September 12, the Shanghai nickel main contract was at 121,980 yuan, up 1,360 yuan from the previous day; the London nickel price was 15,380, up 160; the stainless steel main contract was 12,950 yuan, up 80 yuan [11]. - **Spot Prices**: SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 122,850 yuan, up 1,400 yuan; 1 Jinchuan nickel was 124,000 yuan, up 1,350 yuan; 1 imported nickel was 122,050 yuan, up 1,350 yuan; nickel beans were 124,200 yuan, up 1,350 yuan. Cold - rolled coil prices in major regions remained unchanged [11]. Nickel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - As of September 12, the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 27,500 tons, with futures inventory at 23,529 tons, an increase of 514 tons and 1,815 tons respectively. LME nickel inventory was 225,084 tons, an increase of 1,932 tons [13][14]. Stainless Steel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - On September 12, the inventory in Wuxi was 583,700 tons, in Foshan was 297,100 tons, and the national inventory was 1,012,500 tons, a decrease of 41,100 tons from the previous period. The 300 - series inventory was 623,700 tons, a decrease of 17,200 tons. The stainless steel warehouse receipts were 96,949 tons, a decrease of 605 tons [18][19]. Nickel Ore and Ferronickel Prices - On September 12, the price of red - soil nickel ore CIF with Ni1.5% was 57 US dollars/wet ton, and Ni0.9% was 29 US dollars/wet ton, both remaining unchanged. High - nickel ferronickel was 953.5 yuan/nickel point, and low - nickel ferronickel was 3,470 yuan/ton, also unchanged [22]. Stainless Steel Production Costs - The traditional production cost of stainless steel was 13,157 yuan, the scrap - steel production cost was 13,563 yuan, and the low - nickel + pure - nickel production cost was 16,882 yuan [24]. Nickel Import Cost Calculation - The converted import price was 123,836 yuan/ton [27]. Influencing Factors - **Positive Factors**: There are expectations of demand boost during the "Golden September and Silver October" period, anti - involution policies, and support from the cost line of 120,000 yuan [6]. - **Negative Factors**: Domestic production continues to increase significantly year - on - year, there are no new demand growth points, the long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged, and the installed capacity of ternary batteries is decreasing year - on - year [6].

每日观点 焦煤： 1、基本面：受安全事故影响，部分地区生产仍有所受压制，但整体产量在逐步恢复中。下游买货情绪 依然谨慎，部分矿点出货不畅，有所累库。高价煤种开始回调，竞拍市场也成交乏力，介于市场整体看 降情绪浓厚，短期煤价仍有一定回调空间；偏空 2、基差：现货市场价1130，基差-14.5；现货贴水期货；偏空 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2025-9-15） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 3、库存：钢厂库存805.8万吨，港口库存255.5万吨，独立焦企库存829.4万吨，总样本库存1890.7万吨， 较上周减少28.1万吨；偏多 利 空：1.焦钢企业对原料煤采购放缓 2.钢材价格疲软 每日观点 焦炭： 6、预期：焦炭首轮降价之后，焦企利润压缩，但盈利水平尚可，暂无减产预期，钢厂在高铁水、高日 ...

Report Summary 1. Core Viewpoints - **Threaded Steel**: The demand shows no sign of improvement, the inventory is rising from a low level, and traders' purchasing willingness remains weak. The downstream real - estate industry is still in a downward cycle. With a positive basis, the price is below the 20 - day line, and the main position is net short with an increase in short positions. Considering the weak real - estate market, cooling future demand, and domestic capacity - reduction plans, a high - level oscillation approach should be adopted [2]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Both supply and demand have weakened, inventory continues to decrease, exports are blocked, and domestic policies may take effect. With a positive basis, the price is above the 20 - day line, and the main position is net short with a decrease in short positions. Given the weakening market supply and demand, blocked exports, and domestic capacity - reduction plans, a high - level oscillation approach should be adopted [7]. 2. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 3. Other Summaries 3.1 Threaded Steel - **Fundamentals**: Negative due to poor demand, rising inventory, and a weak downstream real - estate industry [2]. - **Basis**: Positive with a basis of 93 and a spot price of 3220 [2]. - **Inventory**: Neutral. The inventory in 35 major cities is 487.23 million tons, increasing both month - on - month and year - on - year [2]. - **Disk**: Negative as the price is below the 20 - day line and the 20 - day line is downward [2]. - **Main Position**: Negative with a net short position and an increase in short positions [2]. - **Likely Influencing Factors**: Positive factors include low production, spot premium, and domestic capacity - reduction expectations; negative factors are the continuous downward cycle of the downstream real - estate industry and weak terminal demand [4]. 3.2 Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamentals**: Neutral as both supply and demand have weakened, inventory is decreasing, exports are blocked, and domestic policies may take effect [7]. - **Basis**: Positive with a basis of 36 and a spot price of 3400 [7]. - **Inventory**: Neutral. The inventory in 33 major cities is 292.44 million tons, decreasing both month - on - month and year - on - year [7]. - **Disk**: Neutral as the price is above the 20 - day line and the 20 - day line is downward [7]. - **Main Position**: Negative with a net short position and a decrease in short positions [7]. - **Likely Influencing Factors**: Positive factors include decent demand, spot premium, and domestic capacity - reduction expectations; negative factors are the seasonal off - peak of downstream demand and pessimistic expectations [8][9].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铜早报- 大越期货投资咨询部 : 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 铜: 1、基本面：冶炼企业有减产动作，废铜政策有所放开，8月份，制造业PMI升至49.4%，景气水平较上 月有所改善；中性。 2、基差：现货80990，基差-70，贴水期货； 中性。 3、库存：9月12日铜库存减225至153950吨，上期所铜库存较上周增12203吨至94054吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线上，20均线向上运行；偏多。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，多增；偏多。 6、预期：库存回升，地缘扰动仍存，等待9月旺季消费指引，目前多空矛盾不突出，铜价震荡偏强运 行 近期利多利空分析 利多： 利空： 逻辑： 全球政策宽松 和 贸易战升级 风险： 每日汇总 现货 地方 中间价 涨跌 库存 类型 总量（吨） 增 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2025-9-15 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 纯碱： 1、基本面：碱厂检修较少，供给仍处高位；下游浮法玻璃日熔量平稳，光伏日熔量延续下滑趋 势，终端需求一般，纯碱厂库处于历史同期高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1200元/吨，SA2601收盘价为1290元/吨，基差为-90元，期货 升水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存179.75万吨，较前一周减少1.35%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面疲弱，短期预计震荡偏弱运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、年内检修高峰期来临，产量预计将有所下滑。 利空： 1、23年以来，纯碱产能大 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 聚烯烃早报 2025-9-15 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述： • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，8月份，官方PMI为49.4，比上月上升0.1个百分点，财新PMI50.4，较 前月上升0.6个百分点，制造业景气度有所改善。8 月以美元计价的中国出口额为3218.1 亿美元， 同比增长4.4%，较 7 月有所回落。原油方面，原油价格震荡，近日以色列袭击卡塔尔首都引发 中东地缘政治再次动荡，美欧等欲对俄油实施二级制裁。供需端，农膜逐渐进入旺季，但整体需 求仍较往年偏弱，其余包装膜等需求有所回升。当前LL交割品现货价7180（-20），基本面整体 中性； • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2601合约基差11，升贴水比例0.2%，中性； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存54 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, the spot is relatively strong, the domestic inventory is decreasing, and the tire operating rate is at a high level. The market has support below, and short - long trading is recommended [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - The fundamentals of natural rubber show that supply is increasing, the spot is strong, domestic inventory is decreasing, and tire operating rate is high, with a neutral outlook [4]. - The basis is - 870 with a spot price of 14,950, showing a bearish signal [4]. - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange has decreased week - on - week and year - on - year; the inventory in Qingdao has decreased week - on - week but increased year - on - year, with a neutral outlook [4]. - The 20 - day line is flat, and the price is running below the 20 - day line, showing a bearish signal [4]. - The main position has a net short position with an increase in short positions, showing a bearish signal [4]. - The market has support below, and short - long trading is recommended [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand** - Supply is increasing, and downstream consumption is relatively high [4][6]. - Automobile production and sales are seasonally declining, while tire production reached a new high in the same period but declined month - on - month, and tire industry exports are recovering [23][26][29][32]. - **Price** - The spot price of 2023 full - latex (non - deliverable) increased on September 12 [8]. - The basis strengthened on September 12 [35]. - **Inventory** - The exchange inventory has changed slightly recently [14]. - The Qingdao area inventory has changed slightly recently [17]. - The import volume has rebounded [20]. 3.3 Multi - Empty Factors - **Likely Factors** - High downstream consumption [6]. - Resilient spot prices [6]. - Domestic anti - involution [6]. - **Bearish Factors** - Increasing supply [6]. - Bearish domestic economic indicators [6]. - Trade frictions [6].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2025年9月15日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 PTA 每日观点 PTA： 1、基本面：周五，下周货在01贴水70~75附近商谈成交，个别在01贴水80附近商谈，9月底在01贴水75有成交，价格商谈区间在 4550~4590附近。10月货在01贴水50成交，个别略低。今日主流现货基差在01-73。中性 2、基差：现货4565，01合约基差-83，盘面升水 偏空 3、库存：PTA工厂库存3.84天，环比减少0.06天 偏多 4、盘面：20日均线向下，收盘价收于20日均线之下 偏空 5、主力持仓：净空 空增 偏空 6、预期：近期PTA仓单持续流出，叠加个别主流供应商出货，现货市场流通性尚可，现货基差偏 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 玻璃早报 2025-9-15 每日观点 玻璃： 1、基本面：玻璃生产利润回落，行业冷修高位，开工率、产量下降至历史同期低位；下游深加工 订单整体偏弱，不及往年同期，地产终端需求疲弱；偏空 2、基差：浮法玻璃河北沙河大板现货1072元/吨，FG2601收盘价为1180元/吨，基差为-108元，期 货升水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国浮法玻璃企业库存6158.30万重量箱，较前一周减少2.33%，库存在5年均值上方运 行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线上方运行，20日线向下；中性 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：玻璃基本面疲弱，短期预计震荡偏弱运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、"反内卷"政策影响下，浮法玻璃行业存产能出清预期。 利空 ...