Report Information - Report Title: Grease Morning Report - Date: November 25, 2025 - Analyst: Wang Mingwei - Qualification Number: F0283029 - Investment Consultation Number: Z0010442 - Tel: 0575 - 85226759 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The price of oils and fats is in a volatile consolidation. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. Sino - US relations are stalemated, the export of new US soybeans is frustrated, and the price is under pressure. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is neutral, the demand has improved, Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and the import inventory is stable [2][3][4] Summary by Category Daily Views - Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that in August, the production of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 9.8% month - on - month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% month - on - month to 1.49 million tons, and the month - end inventory decreased by 2.6% month - on - month to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, and the production cut is less than expected. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month shows a 4% month - on - month increase, and later it will enter the production - reducing season, so the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease [2] - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8362, the basis is 194, and the spot price is at a premium to the futures price, which is bullish [2] - **Inventory**: On September 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, compared with 1.16 million tons before, a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 11.7%, which is bearish [2] - **Market**: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is bearish [2] - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main contract of soybean oil are increasing, which is bullish [2] - **Expectation**: The price of soybean oil Y2601 will fluctuate in the range of 8000 - 8400 [2] Daily Views - Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, but later it will enter the production - increasing season, and the supply of palm oil will increase [3] - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 8562, the basis is 112, and the spot price is at a premium to the futures price, which is bullish [3] - **Inventory**: On September 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, compared with 570,000 tons before, a month - on - month increase of 10,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 34.1%, which is bullish [3] - **Market**: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is bearish [3] - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main contract of palm oil are increasing, which is bullish [3] - **Expectation**: The price of palm oil P2601 will fluctuate in the range of 8250 - 8650 [3] Daily Views - Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil [4] - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10156, the basis is 378, and the spot price is at a premium to the futures price, which is bullish [4] - **Inventory**: On September 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, compared with 550,000 tons before, a month - on - month increase of 10,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 3.2%, which is bearish [4] - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward, which is bullish [4] - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main contract of rapeseed oil are increasing, which is bullish [4] - **Expectation**: The price of rapeseed oil OI2601 will fluctuate in the range of 9600 - 10000 [4] Recent利多利空 Analysis - **Likely Positive Factors**: The inventory - to - sales ratio of US soybeans remains around 4%, indicating tight supply [5] - **Likely Negative Factors**: The price of oils and fats is at a relatively high historical level, and the domestic inventory of oils and fats is continuously increasing; the macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of relevant oils and fats is high [5] - **Current Main Logic**: The global fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively loose [5] Supply - Related - **Imported Soybean Inventory**: Report mentions it but no specific data analysis [6] - **Soybean Oil Inventory**: On September 22, it was 1.18 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 11.7% [2] - **Soybean Meal Inventory**: Data presented in graphical form from 2015 - 2025 [9][10] - **Oil Mill Soybean Pressing**: Data presented in graphical form from 2015 - 2025 [11][12] - **Palm Oil Inventory**: On September 22, it was 580,000 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 10,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 34.1% [3] - **Rapeseed Oil Inventory**: On September 22, it was 560,000 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 10,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 3.2% [4] - **Rapeseed Inventory**: Data presented in graphical form from 2015 - 2025 [21][22] - **Domestic Total Oil Inventory**: Data presented in graphical form from 2015 - 2019 [23][24] Demand - Related - **Soybean Oil Apparent Consumption**: Data presented in graphical form from 2015 - 2025 [13][14] - **Soybean Meal Apparent Consumption**: Data presented in graphical form from 2015 - 2025 [15][16]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-11-25锰硅早报 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 锰硅2601： 1.基本面：当前硅锰市场呈现"成本端坚挺、需求端疲软"的僵持博弈格局，受坚挺的成本以及下游压价影响，现货市场 调整有限；中性。 2.基差：现货价5650元/吨，01合约基差20/吨，现货升水期货。偏多。 3.库存：全国63家独立硅锰企业样本库存221800吨；全国50家钢厂库存平均可用天数15.49天。中性。 4.盘面：MA20向下，01合约期价收于MA20下方。偏空。 5.主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减。偏空。 2 -2000元/吨 0元/吨 2000元/吨 4000元/吨 6000元/吨 8000元/吨 10000元/吨 12000元/吨 14000元/吨 2020-01-01 2020- ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 玻璃早报 2025-11-25 每日观点 玻璃： 1、基本面：生产利润修复乏力但供给收缩不及预期；地产拖累下游深加工订单偏弱，库存同期历 史高位；偏空 2、基差：浮法玻璃河北沙河大板现货980元/吨，FG2601收盘价为1013元/吨，基差为-33元，期货 升水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国浮法玻璃企业库存6330.30万重量箱，较前一周增加0.09%，库存在5年均值上方运 行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：玻璃基本面疲弱，短期预计震荡偏弱运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、沙河地区"煤改气" ，行业冷修，产量损失。 利空： 1、地产终端需求依然疲弱，玻璃深加工企业订单 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **沪镍**: The overall outlook for Shanghai nickel is bearish. It is expected to oscillate in a low - level range, and investors are advised to sell on rebounds in the medium - to - long term [2]. - **不锈钢**: The stainless - steel market is under downward pressure and is expected to operate weakly [4]. 3. Summary by Directory **沪镍 Daily View** - **Fundamentals**: External prices are rebounding towards the 20 - day moving average. Some production capacities have cut output, leading to tight supply from companies like GEM. Nickel ore prices are firm, sea freight has a slight increase, and the 2026 RKAB quota in Indonesia is expected to be 3.19 billion tons, indicating ample supply. Nickel - iron prices continue to decline, and the cost - line center has dropped further. Stainless - steel inventory has a slight increase, and the demand remains weak. Refined nickel inventory is at a high level, and the oversupply situation persists. The new - energy vehicle production and sales data are good, but the overall boost to nickel demand is limited [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 117,750, and the basis is 2,220, which is bullish [2]. - **Inventory**: LME inventory is 253,482 (- 468), and the Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts are 34,493 (+ 708), which is bearish [2]. - **Market**: The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is bearish [2]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions are decreasing, which is bearish [2]. - **Conclusion**: Shanghai nickel 2601 will oscillate in a low - level range, and investors should sell on rebounds in the medium - to - long term [2]. **不锈钢 Daily View** - **Fundamentals**: The spot stainless - steel price has a slight decline. In the short term, nickel ore prices are firm, sea freight has a slight increase, nickel - iron prices are falling, the cost line continues to decline, and stainless - steel inventory has a slight increase [4]. - **Basis**: The average stainless - steel price is 13,275, and the basis is 940, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: The futures warehouse receipts are 64,382 (- 542), which is neutral [4]. - **Market**: The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is bearish [4]. - **Conclusion**: Stainless - steel 2601 is under downward pressure and will operate weakly [4]. **Price Overview** - **沪镍**: The Shanghai nickel main contract rose from 114,050 on November 21 to 115,530 on November 24, an increase of 1,480. LME nickel rose from 14,620 to 14,730, an increase of 110. Spot prices of various nickel products also increased to varying degrees [11]. - **不锈钢**: The stainless - steel main contract rose from 12,290 on November 21 to 12,335 on November 24, an increase of 45. Spot stainless - steel prices were relatively stable, with some showing slight declines [11]. **Inventory Situation** - **沪镍**: As of November 24, LME nickel inventory was 253,482 (- 468), and Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 34,493 (+ 708). The total inventory increased by 240 [14]. - **不锈钢**: As of November 21, the national stainless - steel inventory was 107.17 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.12 million tons. The 300 - series inventory was 65.88 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.12 million tons. As of November 24, the futures warehouse receipts were 64,382 (- 542) [18][19]. **Price of Nickel Ore and Nickel - Iron** - **Nickel Ore**: The prices of red - soil nickel ore CIF with Ni1.5% and Ni0.9% remained unchanged at 57 and 29 US dollars per wet ton respectively from November 21 to November 24. Sea freight from the Philippines to Lianyungang and Tianjin Port also remained unchanged [21]. - **Nickel - Iron**: The price of high - nickel wet tons (8 - 12) decreased from 891 to 889.5 yuan per nickel point, while the price of low - nickel wet tons (below 2) remained unchanged at 3,200 yuan per ton [21]. **Stainless - Steel Production Cost** - The traditional production cost is 12,461, the scrap - steel production cost is 12,761, and the low - nickel + pure - nickel production cost is 16,148 [23]. **Nickel Import Cost** The calculated import price is 118,139 yuan per ton [25].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - ISO, StoneX, and Czarnikow predict a surplus in the global sugar market for the 25/26 season, with estimates of 163, 277, and 740 million tons respectively [4][9][35] - As of the end of August 2025, China's cumulative sugar production for the 24/25 season was 1.11621 billion tons, and cumulative sugar sales were 1 billion tons, with a sales rate of 89.6% [4] - In October 2025, China imported 750,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 210,000 tons; imports of syrup and premixes totaled 115,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 110,500 tons [4][9] - The sugar futures main contract 01 has recently declined to a new low. Considering the approaching delivery, trading is recommended to shift to the 05 contract. After a short - term rapid decline, there may be a technical rebound, and it is recommended to partially take profits on short positions [5][9] Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review No relevant content provided. 2. Daily Tips - Fundamentals: Multiple institutions predict a surplus in the global sugar market for the 25/26 season, which is bearish. In 2025, China's sugar imports increased in October, while imports of syrup and premixes decreased. The cumulative sugar production and sales in the 24/25 season are as mentioned above [4] - Basis: The Liuzhou spot price is 5,610 yuan, with a basis of 240 yuan for the 01 contract, indicating a premium over futures, which is bullish [6] - Inventory: As of the end of August in the 24/25 season, the industrial inventory was 1.16 million tons, which is neutral [6] - Market: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [6] - Main Position: The net short position is decreasing, and the main trend is bearish, which is bearish [6] - Expectation: The sugar futures main contract 01 has recently declined to a new low. Considering the approaching delivery, trading is recommended to shift to the 05 contract. After a short - term rapid decline, there may be a technical rebound, and it is recommended to partially take profits on short positions [5][9] 3. Today's Focus No relevant content provided. 4. Fundamental Data - Supply and demand: Multiple institutions' predictions for the 25/26 season show a global sugar surplus. China's sugar production, sales, and import data for relevant periods are as described above. The tariff on imported syrup has increased since January 2025 [4][9] - Price: The international sugar price has been falling, and the import profit is considerable. The domestic sugar price range for the 25/26 season is predicted to be 5,500 - 6,000 yuan/ton [9][37] - Consumption: Domestic consumption is good, and inventory has decreased. The US cola changing its formula to use sucrose is a long - term positive factor [7][9] 5. Position Data No relevant content provided.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the 01 contract showed a downward trend. It is expected that next week, the demand recovery will be limited, supply will decrease, cost support will weaken, and the market may experience a bearish oscillatory adjustment [5][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Review and Outlook - **Market Performance**: The 01 contract declined this week, with an opening price of 3,048 yuan/ton on Monday and a closing price of 3,009 yuan/ton on Friday, representing a weekly decline [5] - **Supply Side**: In November 2025, the total planned production of asphalt by local refineries was 1.312 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.5%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples was 26.4262%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.37 percentage points. The national sample enterprises' shipment was 245,550 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15.28%. The sample enterprises' output was 441,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14.20%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprises' equipment was 958,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.59%. Refineries reduced production this week, but supply pressure may increase next week [5] - **Demand Side**: The开工率 of heavy - traffic asphalt was 24.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.14 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The开工率 of building asphalt was 6.6%, flat month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The开工率 of modified asphalt was 10.587%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.63 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The开工率 of road - modified asphalt was 34%, flat month - on - month, higher than the historical average. The开工率 of waterproofing membranes was 34%, a month - on - month increase of 1.00 percentage point, lower than the historical average. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [5] - **Cost Side**: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 453.38 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 1,086.84 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 18.76%. Asphalt processing losses increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. With the weakening of crude oil, the short - term support is expected to weaken [6] - **Inventory Side**: The social inventory was 794,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.75%. The in - plant inventory was 642,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.77%. The port diluted asphalt inventory was 800,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.57%. Social and in - plant inventories continued to decline, while port inventory continued to accumulate [6] 3.2 Technical Analysis - This week, the main 01 contract showed a downward trend, and it is expected to experience a bearish oscillatory adjustment next week [107]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Cotton prices continued to fluctuate around 13,500 this week. With cost support from the spot market, the downside is limited. It presents an opportunity for mid - to long - term long positions to enter the market at low prices and target distant contracts [4][5]. - The textile industry is in the off - season, but short - term benefits from China - US negotiations have led to a 10% reduction in export tariffs to the US [5]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include a slight increase in seed cotton purchase prices, a year - on - year decrease in commercial inventory, and a 10% reduction in export tariffs to the US. Negative factors are a decline in overall foreign trade orders, an increase in inventory, the upcoming large - scale listing of new cotton, and the traditional consumption off - season [6][7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review - This week, cotton prices fluctuated around 13,500. The ICAC November report forecasts a 2025/26 production of 25.4 million tons and consumption of 25 million tons. The USDA November report predicts a 2025/26 production of 26.145 million tons, consumption of 25.883 million tons, and an ending inventory of 16.532 million tons. In October, textile and clothing exports were $22.262 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 12.63%. China imported 90,000 tons of cotton in October, a year - on - year decrease of 15.6%, and 140,000 tons of cotton yarn, a year - on - year increase of 16.7%. The Ministry of Agriculture's November 2025/26 forecast shows production of 6.6 million tons, imports of 1.4 million tons, consumption of 7.4 million tons, and ending inventory of 8.45 million tons [4]. 3.2 Daily Hints - The textile industry is in the off - season. Short - term benefits from China - US negotiations have led to a 10% reduction in export tariffs to the US. Domestic new cotton picking is almost finished. With cost support, the downside of futures prices is limited, and it's a good time for mid - to long - term long positions to enter the market at low prices and target distant contracts [5]. 3.3 Today's Focus Not provided in the report. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **USDA Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: In 2025/26, global production is expected to be 26.145 million tons, consumption 25.883 million tons, and ending inventory 16.532 million tons. Different countries have different trends in production, consumption, imports, and exports [11][12]. - **ICAC Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: In 2025/26, the area is 30.41385 million hectares, yield per hectare is 835.13 kg, production is 25.39956 million tons, consumption is 25.00778 million tons, and ending inventory is 16.22785 million tons [14]. - **China Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: In 2025/26, production is 6.6 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.4 million tons, and ending inventory is 8.45 million tons. The domestic average price of cotton 3128B is expected to be between 14,000 - 16,000 yuan/ton, and the Cotlook A index is expected to be between 75 - 100 cents/pound [15]. - **Other Data**: There are also data on polyester fiber prices, spinning mill profits, cotton yarn imports, cotton yarn production start - up rates, and weaving mill start - up rates [18][20][25]. 3.5 Position Data Not provided in the report.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel and ore markets moved sideways this week with little overall fluctuation [62]. - The current operating logic of the black industrial chain lies in weak terminal consumption, with the slump in the real - estate industry being the core factor. The negative feedback mechanism in the industrial chain is transmitted upwards, and different links are affected differently according to their industry status. Overall, weak demand suppresses prices [62]. - On Monday, prices rose due to the influence of rumors, and market expectations for policies are a key factor in price fluctuations. However, the probability of substantial policy introduction is low in the current environment [62]. - The report maintains the previous view that the fundamentals are bearish, and the overall steel and ore markets will remain in a weak pattern [62]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Raw Material Market Condition Analysis 3.1.1 One - Week Data Changes - **Iron Ore Spot Prices**: PB powder price increased from 783 yuan/wet ton to 790 yuan/wet ton, and Bar - mixed powder price rose from 820 yuan/wet ton to 831 yuan/wet ton [6]. - **Iron Ore Import Profits**: PB powder's spot landing profit decreased from - 5.41 yuan/wet ton to - 12.08 yuan/wet ton, while Bar - mixed powder's increased from 18.38 yuan/wet ton to 21.87 yuan/wet ton [6]. - **Iron Ore Shipment Volumes**: Australia's shipments to China increased from 1454.2 million tons to 1812.1 million tons, and Brazil's shipments rose from 725.7 million tons to 847.9 million tons [6]. - **Iron Ore Port Inventories and Related Data**: Imported iron ore port inventory decreased by 77.99 million tons to 15734.85 million tons, the arrival volume decreased by 399.4 million tons to 2369.9 million tons, the port clearance volume increased by 3.11 million tons to 343.39 million tons, the daily port trading volume decreased by 10.5 million tons to 91.6 million tons, the average daily hot - metal output decreased by 0.6 million tons to 236.28 million tons, and the steel - enterprise profitability rate decreased by 1.3 percentage points to 37.66% [6]. 3.2 Market Status Analysis 3.2.1 One - Week Data Changes - **Steel Product Prices**: Shanghai rebar price increased from 3190 yuan/ton to 3220 yuan/ton, and Shanghai hot - rolled coil price rose from 3260 yuan/ton to 3270 yuan/ton [33]. - **Steel - Making Furnace Operating Rates**: The blast - furnace operating rate decreased by 0.62 percentage points to 82.19%, and the electric - furnace operating rate increased by 1 percentage point to 69.13% [33]. - **Steel Product Profits**: Rebar blast - furnace profit decreased by 1 yuan/ton to - 30 yuan/ton, hot - rolled coil blast - furnace profit decreased by 16 yuan/ton to - 57 yuan/ton, and rebar electric - furnace profit increased by 42 yuan/ton to - 114 yuan/ton [33]. - **Steel Production Volumes**: Rebar weekly output increased by 7.96 million tons to 207.96 million tons, and hot - rolled coil weekly output rose by 2.35 million tons to 316.01 million tons [33]. 3.2.2 Another Set of One - Week Data Changes - **Steel Inventories**: Rebar's weekly social inventory decreased by 15.73 million tons to 400.02 million tons, and its weekly enterprise inventory dropped by 7.1 million tons to 153.32 million tons. Hot - rolled coil's weekly social inventory decreased by 8.91 million tons to 324.09 million tons, and its weekly enterprise inventory increased by 0.5 million tons to 78.02 million tons [35]. - **Steel Apparent Consumption**: Rebar's weekly apparent consumption increased by 14.42 million tons to 230.79 million tons, and hot - rolled coil's weekly apparent consumption rose by 10.83 million tons to 324.42 million tons [35]. - **Building Material Trading Volume**: The building material trading volume decreased by 9111 tons to 95010 tons [35]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Data Analysis - **Operating Rates**: The blast - furnace and electric - furnace operating rates are important indicators for steel production capacity utilization [41]. - **Steel Production Volumes**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil production volumes in China are presented over different time periods, showing trends in production [43][45]. - **Steel Profits**: The average profit of electric - furnace steel for construction use in China is shown over time, reflecting the profitability of the steel - making process [50]. - **Steel Inventories**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil inventories in social and enterprise warehouses in China are presented, which are important for analyzing supply - demand relationships [51][52]. - **Steel Trading Volumes**: The trading volume of building - use steel by mainstream traders in China is shown, indicating market activity [54]. - **Steel Apparent Consumption**: The weekly apparent consumption changes of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different years are presented, helping to understand market demand [56]. - **Steel Exports**: The monthly export volume of steel in China is shown, which is related to the international market demand for Chinese steel [57]. - **Real - Estate Indicators**: The year - on - year cumulative investment completion of residential buildings by real - estate development enterprises, the year - on - year cumulative sales area of commercial housing, the year - on - year cumulative new construction, construction, and completion areas of houses, and the manufacturing PMI are presented, which are related to the demand for steel in the real - estate and manufacturing industries [58][59][61].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, crude oil showed a first-rising-then-falling trend, and fuel oil prices followed the downward trend. The market structure of low-sulfur fuel oil remained stable, while that of high-sulfur fuel oil strengthened slightly. High-sulfur fuel oil closed at 2,487 yuan/ton, down 3.91% for the week, and low-sulfur fuel oil closed at 3,038 yuan/ton, down 6.23% for the week [4]. - The estimated arrival volume of low-sulfur fuel oil from the Western market in Singapore in November is 2.9 - 3 billion tons, higher than 2.5 - 2.6 billion tons in October. However, high freight rates may lead to a tightening of arrivals in December. Affected by the expected supply tightening, the price of low-sulfur marine fuel oil has gradually risen, and the spot spread has changed from a discount to a premium. But due to sufficient immediate supply, there is limited room for the low-sulfur fuel oil fundamentals to rise significantly in the short term [4]. - The Asian high-sulfur fuel oil market has been strongly supported by the downstream marine fuel demand. Some Chinese refineries are purchasing high-sulfur fuel oil as raw materials, and the demand in the Chinese market remains relatively stable. International crude oil prices are expected to remain volatile, and fuel oil prices are also expected to continue to fluctuate weakly. Operationally, high-sulfur fuel oil should be traded in the range of 2,450 - 2,650 yuan/ton, and low-sulfur fuel oil in the range of 2,950 - 3,150 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Weekly View - Crude oil showed a first-rising-then-falling trend last week, and fuel oil prices followed the downward trend. The market structure of low-sulfur fuel oil remained stable, and that of high-sulfur fuel oil strengthened slightly. High-sulfur fuel oil closed at 2,487 yuan/ton, down 3.91% for the week, and low-sulfur fuel oil closed at 3,038 yuan/ton, down 6.23% for the week [4]. - The estimated arrival volume of low-sulfur fuel oil from the Western market in Singapore in November is 2.9 - 3 billion tons, higher than 2.5 - 2.6 billion tons in October. High freight rates may lead to a tightening of arrivals in December. Affected by the expected supply tightening, the price of low-sulfur marine fuel oil has gradually risen, and the spot spread has changed from a discount to a premium. But due to sufficient immediate supply, there is limited room for the low-sulfur fuel oil fundamentals to rise significantly in the short term [4]. - The Asian high-sulfur fuel oil market has been strongly supported by the downstream marine fuel demand. Some Chinese refineries are purchasing high-sulfur fuel oil as raw materials, and the demand in the Chinese market remains relatively stable. International crude oil prices are expected to remain volatile, and fuel oil prices are also expected to continue to fluctuate weakly. Operationally, high-sulfur fuel oil should be traded in the range of 2,450 - 2,650 yuan/ton, and low-sulfur fuel oil in the range of 2,950 - 3,150 yuan/ton [4]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Prices**: The previous value of the FU main contract was 2,655 yuan/ton, the current value is 2,546 yuan/ton, down 109 yuan/ton or 4.10%. The previous value of the LU main contract was 3,255 yuan/ton, the current value is 3,207 yuan/ton, down 48 yuan/ton or 1.49% [5]. - **Spot Prices**: The previous value of Zhoushan high-sulfur fuel oil was 456 yuan/ton, the current value is 445 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton or 2.41%. The previous value of Zhoushan low-sulfur fuel oil was 465 yuan/ton, the current value is 455 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton or 2.15%. The previous value of Singapore high-sulfur fuel oil was 345.51 yuan/ton, the current value is 341.53 yuan/ton, down 3.98 yuan/ton or 1.15%. The previous value of Singapore low-sulfur fuel oil was 441.50 yuan/ton, the current value is 426.35 yuan/ton, down 15.15 yuan/ton or 3.43%. The previous value of Middle East high-sulfur fuel oil was 314.22 yuan/ton, the current value is 310.98 yuan/ton, down 3.24 yuan/ton or 1.03%. The previous value of Singapore diesel was 711.50 yuan/ton, the current value is 696.05 yuan/ton, down 15.44 yuan/ton or 2.17% [6]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Consumption Data**: Data on Singapore fuel oil consumption, Chinese fuel oil consumption, and Shandong fuel oil coking profit margins are presented in the form of charts, showing the consumption and profit margin trends from 2021 - 2025 [7][8][9]. 3.4 Inventory Data - **Singapore Fuel Oil Inventory**: As of November 19, the inventory was 23.449 billion barrels, an increase of 2.57 billion barrels [10]. 3.5 Spread Data - The chart of the high - low sulfur futures spread shows the spread trend [15].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, sugar prices in China started a catch - up decline, with spot prices dropping significantly due to the impact of imported sugar. The full - tariff price of imported sugar is around 5100 - 5200, and there is still room for the futures price to fall. After a rapid decline, there may be a rebound. It's advisable to be cautiously bearish, avoid chasing short positions, and consider reducing profitable short positions taken earlier [5]. - Different institutions have different forecasts for the global sugar supply surplus in the 25/26 season, with estimates ranging from 100,000 to 740,000 tons [5]. - The external sugar market is weak, and the profit margin for out - of - quota imported sugar is large, leading to a significant increase in imports in October. The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton 01 has recently caught up with the decline and reached a new low. Considering the approaching delivery, it is recommended to shift trading to the 05 contract. After a short - term rapid decline, a technical rebound is possible, and short - term short positions can be partially reduced for profit [5]. - There are both bullish and bearish factors in the sugar market. Bullish factors include good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, and the change in the US cola formula to use sucrose. Bearish factors are the increase in global sugar production and the expected supply surplus in the new season, as well as the opening of the import profit window due to the fall of external sugar prices to around 14 cents per pound [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review No information provided. 3.2 Daily Prompt - For SR2601, the price is 5353, the basis is 317, the import price difference is - 246, and the state reserve inventory is about 7 million tons. For SR2605, the price is 5302, with a change of - 60, the import price after processing of raw sugar (50% tariff) is 5107, the basis is 368, the import price difference is - 195, and the import quota is 1.945 million tons. For SR2609, the price in Liuzhou is 5321, the basis is 349, and the import price difference is - 214. In October 2025, China imported 750,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 210,000 tons, and imported 115,500 tons of syrup and premixed powder, a year - on - year decrease of 110,500 tons [8]. - Mid - term view: The domestic sugar supply - demand balance sheet shows a gap, but the gap is decreasing in the medium - to - long - term. The average domestic sugar spot sales price is around 5700. Since January 2025, the tariff on imported syrup has increased, approaching the out - of - quota import tariff of raw sugar. The long - term view is bullish on sugar due to the approval of the cola formula change [8]. - Short - term view: Bullish on sugar. Different institutions have different forecasts for the global sugar supply surplus in the 25/26 season [8]. 3.3 Today's Focus No information provided. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Global sugar supply and demand forecasts for the 25/26 season from different institutions: ISO predicts a surplus of 163,000 tons; StoneX predicts a surplus of 277,000 tons; Czarnikow has raised the surplus forecast to 740,000 tons; DATAGRO has revised the surplus forecast down from 280,000 to 100,000 tons [5][8]. - As of the end of August 2025, in the 24/25 season, the cumulative sugar production in China was 1.11621 million tons, the cumulative sugar sales were 1 million tons, and the sales rate was 89.6%. In October 2025, China imported 750,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 210,000 tons, and imported 115,500 tons of syrup and premixed powder, a year - on - year decrease of 110,500 tons [5][8]. - China's sugar supply - demand balance sheet: In the 25/26 season (November forecast), the sugarcane planting area is 1.439 million hectares, the sugar production is 1.17 million tons, the import volume is 500,000 tons, the consumption is 1.57 million tons, and the export volume is 18,000 tons. The international sugar price is expected to be between 14.0 - 18.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be between 5500 - 6000 yuan per ton [36]. 3.5 Position Data No information provided.