Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The Shanghai Zinc futures are expected to experience a fluctuating downward trend, specifically for the ZN2601 contract [2][18]. Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Analysis - In September 2025, global refined zinc production was 1.1935 million tons, consumption was 1.2292 million tons, resulting in a supply shortage of 35,700 tons. From January to September, global zinc plate production was 10.3632 million tons, consumption was 10.7369 million tons, with a supply shortage of 373,700 tons. In September, global zinc ore production was 1.1633 million tons, and from January to September, it was 9.9647 million tons, indicating a bullish factor [2]. - The spot price was 22,480, with a basis of +120, also a bullish factor [2]. - On November 25th, LME zinc inventory increased by 575 tons to 48,000 tons compared to the previous day, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange zinc inventory warrants decreased by 822 to 73,819 tons, showing a neutral situation [2]. - The previous day, Shanghai Zinc showed a fluctuating trend, closing below the 20 - day moving average while the 20 - day moving average was upward, a neutral signal [2]. - The main position was net short, with short positions decreasing, a bearish factor [2]. Futures Exchange Zinc Futures Quotes on November 25th - The trading volume of zinc futures contracts on this day totaled 146,121 lots, with a total trading value of 1.63291271 billion yuan. The open interest was 190,891 lots, a decrease of 2,396 lots [3]. Domestic Main Spot Market Quotes on November 25th - The domestic zinc concentrate spot TC was 2,300 yuan/metal ton, and the imported comprehensive TC was 80 US dollars/dry ton, both remaining unchanged [4]. - The price of 0 zinc in Shanghai was in the range of 22,430 - 22,530 yuan/ton, with an average price of 22,480 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 22,250 - 22,350 yuan/ton, with an average price of 22,300 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton; in Tianjin, it was 22,350 - 22,450 yuan/ton, with an average price of 22,400 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton; in Zhejiang, it was 22,520 - 22,620 yuan/ton, with an average price of 22,570 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton [4]. National Main Market Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics (November 13 - 24, 2025) - As of November 24th, the total social inventory of zinc ingots in major Chinese markets was 1.517 million tons, a decrease of 10,700 tons compared to November 17th and a decrease of 8,200 tons compared to November 20th [5]. Futures Exchange Zinc Warrant Report on November 25th - The total zinc warrants on the Shanghai Futures Exchange on this day were 73,819 tons, a decrease of 822 tons [6]. LME Zinc Inventory Distribution and Statistics on November 25th - The total LME zinc inventory on this day was 48,000 tons, an increase of 575 tons compared to the previous day, with a registered warrant of 44,950 tons and a cancelled warrant of 3,050 tons, accounting for 6.35% [8]. National Main City Zinc Concentrate Price Summary on November 25th - The prices of 50% grade zinc concentrate in various regions remained unchanged, with prices ranging from 18,220 - 18,620 yuan/ton [9]. National Market Zinc Ingot Smelter Price Quotes on November 25th - The prices of 0 zinc ingots from various smelters increased by 20 yuan/ton, with prices ranging from 22,100 - 23,100 yuan/ton [12]. Domestic Refined Zinc Production in October 2025 - The planned production value in October was 509,600 tons, the actual production was 524,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.87%, a year - on - year increase of 18.38%, and an increase of 2.88% compared to the planned value. The capacity utilization rate was 73.33%. The planned production for November was 522,300 tons [14]. Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee Quotes on November 25th - The processing fees for 50% grade zinc concentrate in different regions ranged from 2,100 - 2,800 yuan/metal ton, and the 48% grade imported processing fee was 80 US dollars/dry ton [16]. Shanghai Futures Exchange Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking Table on November 25th - The total trading volume of members was 129,813 lots, a decrease of 26,325 lots. The total long position was 73,293 lots, an increase of 1,696 lots, and the total short position was 68,587 lots, an increase of 2,605 lots [17]. Short - Term View - The previous trading day, Shanghai Zinc showed a fluctuating trend, closing with a small阳线, with shrinking trading volume. Both long and short positions increased, with short positions increasing more. Overall, it was a shrinking - volume fluctuation. The price fluctuated, and while long positions entered actively, short positions suppressed more actively. Therefore, the market may fluctuate weakly in the short term. Technically, the price closed near the long - term moving average, with strong support from the moving average; the short - term indicator KDJ rose and operated in the weak area; the trend indicator rose, with the long - position strength increasing and the short - position strength decreasing, and the long - and short - position forces began to be in a stalemate [18].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The glass market is currently in a weak state. The production profit repair is weak, the supply contraction is less than expected, the downstream deep - processing orders are weak due to the real - estate drag, and the inventory is at a historically high level. The glass is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of glass futures increased from 1013 yuan/ton to 1014 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.10%. The spot price of Shahe Safety large - board remained at 980 yuan/ton. The main basis changed from - 33 yuan/ton to - 34 yuan/ton, a change of 3.03% [7]. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large - board in Hebei Shahe, the spot benchmark, was 980 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [12]. Fundamental Analysis - Cost Side - The production profit of glass is not clearly described in the report, but it is mentioned that the production profit repair is weak [2]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - The number of operating national float glass production lines is 222, with an operating rate of 74.85%, at a historically low level in the same period. The daily melting volume of national float glass is 158,100 tons, and the production capacity is at a historically low level in the same period [23][25]. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - In September 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.7082 million tons. The real - estate terminal demand is still weak, and the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historically low level in the same period. The capital collection in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly digesting the original glass inventory [28][5]. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 63.303 million weight boxes, an increase of 0.09% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average [41]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of float glass from 2017 to 2024E, including data on production, consumption, production growth rate, consumption growth rate, and net import ratio [42]. Influencing Factors - **Likely to be Bullish**: "Coal - to - Gas" in Shahe area and industry cold - repair leading to production loss [4]. - **Likely to be Bearish**: Weak real - estate terminal demand and low number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises; poor capital collection in the deep - processing industry and cautious attitudes of traders and processors [5]. Main Logic - The glass supply is stable at a low level, the orders of downstream deep - processing factories are dismal, and the glass factory inventory is rising. It is expected that the glass will fluctuate weakly at a low level [6].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PVC期货早报 2025年11月25日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 供给端来看，据隆众统计，2025年10月PVC产量为212.812万吨，环比增加4.79%；本周样本企业产能利 用率为78.83%，环比增加0.00个百分点；电石法企业产量34.578万吨，环比增加0.65%,乙烯法企业产 量13.466万吨，环比减少0.18%；本周供给压力有所增加；下周预计检修有所减少，预计排产少量增加 需求端来看，下游整体开工率为49.19%，环比减少0.35个百分点，高于历史平均水平；下游型材开工率 为36.3%，环比减少0.66个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游管材开工率为40.2%，环比减少0.39个百 分点，高于历史平均水平；下游薄膜开 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The supply - side shows that in November 2025, the total planned output of asphalt from local refineries is 1.312 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.5%. The capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples this week is 26.4262%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.37 percentage points. Refineries have reduced production this week, but supply pressure may increase next week. [8] - The demand - side indicates that the current demand is below the historical average level. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 is 24.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.14 percentage points; the construction asphalt开工率 is 6.6%, remaining flat month - on - month; the modified asphalt开工率 is 10.587%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.63 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt开工率 is 34%, remaining flat month - on - month; the waterproofing membrane开工率 is 34%, a month - on - month increase of 1.00 percentage point. [8] - In terms of cost, the daily asphalt processing profit is - 453.38 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.04%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 1086.84 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 18.76%. The asphalt processing loss increases, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increases. Crude oil is strengthening, and it is expected to provide short - term support. [8] - The basis on November 24 shows that the Shandong spot price is 3030 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract is - 30 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is neutral. [8] - In terms of inventory, the social inventory is 79.4 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.75%; the in - plant inventory is 64.2 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.77%; the port diluted asphalt inventory is 80 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.57%. Social and in - plant inventories are continuously decreasing, while port inventory is continuously increasing, which is neutral. [8] - The disk shows that MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closes below MA20, which is bearish. The net short position of the main contract is decreasing, which is also bearish. [8] - Overall, due to the recent production cut by refineries, the supply pressure is reduced. Affected by the off - season, the demand boost is limited, and the overall demand is lower than expected. The inventory remains flat. With the strengthening of crude oil, the cost support is expected to strengthen in the short term. It is predicted that the asphalt 2601 will fluctuate in the range of 3034 - 3086. [8] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Fundamentals**: Supply - side production shows changes, and demand is below the historical average. Cost - side profit and crude oil trends are analyzed. [8] - **Basis**: The Shandong spot price and the 01 contract basis on November 24 are presented, with the spot at a discount to the futures. [8] - **Inventory**: Social, in - plant, and port inventories show different trends of de - stocking and stocking. [8] - **Disk**: MA20 is downward, and the 01 contract futures price closes below MA20. The net short position of the main contract is decreasing. [8] - **Expectation**: The asphalt 2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 3034 - 3086 in the short term. [8] 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report presents the historical trends of the Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 to 2025. [18][20] 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - **Main Contract Spread**: The historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 are shown. [23] - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: The historical price trends of asphalt, Brent oil, and West Texas oil from 2020 to 2025 are presented. [26] - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: The historical trends of the asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent crude oil crack spreads from 2020 to 2025 are analyzed. [29][30] - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: The historical trends of the asphalt - SC price ratio and asphalt - fuel oil price ratio from 2020 to 2025 are shown. [34] 3.4 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Various Regions - The historical price trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025 is presented. [36] 3.5 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis** - **Asphalt Profit**: The historical trend of asphalt profit from 2019 to 2025 is shown. [39] - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: The historical trend of the coking - asphalt profit spread from 2020 to 2025 is presented. [43] - **Supply - Side Analysis** - **Shipment Volume**: The historical weekly shipment volume of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 to 2025 is shown. [46] - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: The historical trend of domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 is presented. [48] - **Output**: The historical weekly and monthly output trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 are shown. [51] - **Marey Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Output Trend**: The historical trends of Marey crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly output from 2018 to 2025 are presented. [56] - **Local Refinery Asphalt Output**: The historical trend of local refinery asphalt output from 2019 to 2025 is shown. [58] - **开工率**: The historical weekly asphalt capacity utilization rate from 2021 to 2025 is presented. [61] - **Maintenance Loss Estimation**: The historical trend of maintenance loss estimation from 2018 to 2025 is shown. [64] - **Inventory Analysis** - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: The historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) from 2019 to 2025 are presented. [67][68] - **Social Inventory and In - Plant Inventory**: The historical trends of social inventory (70 samples) and in - plant inventory (54 samples) from 2022 to 2025 are shown. [71] - **In - Plant Inventory Inventory Ratio**: The historical trend of the in - plant inventory inventory ratio from 2018 to 2025 is presented. [74] - **Import and Export Situation** - The historical trends of asphalt export and import from 2019 to 2025 are shown, as well as the historical trend of the South Korean asphalt import price difference from 2020 to 2025. [77][80] - **Demand - Side Analysis** - **Petroleum Coke Output**: The historical trend of petroleum coke output from 2019 to 2025 is shown. [83] - **Apparent Consumption**: The historical trend of asphalt apparent consumption from 2019 to 2025 is presented. [86] - **Downstream Demand** - **Transportation Fixed - Asset Investment in Highway Construction**: The historical trend from 2020 to 2025 is shown. [89] - **New Local Special Bond Trend**: The historical trend from 2019 to 2025 is presented. [90] - **Infrastructure Investment Completion Year - on - Year**: The historical trend from 2020 to 2024 is shown. [90] - **Downstream Machinery Demand**: The historical trends of asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly working hours, domestic excavator sales, and road roller sales are presented. [93][95] - **Asphalt开工率** - **Heavy - Traffic Asphalt开工率**: The historical trend from 2019 to 2025 is shown. [98] - **Asphalt开工率 by Use**: The historical trends of construction asphalt开工率 and modified asphalt开工率 from 2019 to 2025 are presented. [100] - **Downstream开工情况**: The historical trends of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt开工率, road - modified asphalt开工率, and waterproofing membrane modified asphalt开工率 from 2019 to 2025 are shown. [102][104] - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheets from January to November 2025 are presented, including downstream demand, port inventory, factory inventory, social inventory, export, import, and output. [107]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The overnight negotiation between the US and Ukraine on the peace agreement is still ongoing. Due to European opposition, some terms have been modified, and it is expected that the agreement will not be reached within the announced time, which partially boosts geopolitical sentiment. Another Federal Reserve governor supports further interest rate cuts, and the positive signal boosts oil prices. Overall, the oil price stabilizes at a low level. SC2601 is expected to trade in the range of 445 - 455, and long - term investors are advised to hold a wait - and - see attitude [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Prompt - **Fundamentals**: Russia's Tuapse port in the Black Sea has resumed oil product exports after a two - week suspension due to a drone attack, and local refineries have restarted crude oil processing; the US and Ukrainian officials are trying to narrow the differences in the plan to end the Ukraine war; Federal Reserve Governor Waller said the US job market is still weak, which may prompt the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at the December 9 - 10 meeting. The overall situation is neutral [3] - **Basis**: On November 24, the spot price of Oman crude oil was $63.17 per barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude oil was $62.10 per barrel, with a basis of 34.43 yuan per barrel, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price, which is bullish [3] - **Inventory**: The API crude oil inventory in the US increased by 4.448 million barrels in the week ending November 14; the EIA inventory in the week ending November 14 decreased by 3.426 million barrels, exceeding the expected decrease of 0.603 million barrels; the inventory in the Cushing area decreased by 69,800 barrels in the week ending November 14; as of November 24, the inventory of Shanghai crude oil futures remained unchanged at 3.464 million barrels, which is bullish [3] - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the price is below the moving average, which is bearish [3] - **Main Position**: As of October 7, the long position of WTI crude oil main contract decreased; as of November 18, the long position of Brent crude oil main contract increased, which is bullish [3] 3.2 Recent News - **Peace Talks between the US and Ukraine**: The US and Ukrainian officials are working hard to bridge the differences in the plan to end the Russia - Ukraine conflict. They have drafted a "refined peace framework" after the Geneva talks. Although details are not disclosed, the dialogue has been cautiously welcomed by some Ukrainian allies. There are still some differences, and no meeting between the US and Ukrainian presidents is currently planned [5] - **Federal Reserve Interest Rate Cut**: Federal Reserve Governor Waller said the US job market is still weak, which may prompt the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at the December 9 - 10 meeting. Future actions depend on a large amount of upcoming data [5] - **Crude Oil Purchase by Indian Refinery**: India's MRPL has purchased 2 million barrels of Abu Dhabi Murban crude oil for January loading through tender, continuing to avoid Russian oil. Earlier this month, it also purchased 1 million barrels of Basra Medium crude oil for delivery from January 1 to 7 [5] 3.3 Long - and Short - Term Concerns - **Bullish Factors**: Sanctions against Russia are approaching; OPEC+ will suspend production increases in the first quarter of next year [6] - **Bearish Factors**: The situation in the Middle East has eased; institutions have a relatively consistent expectation of crude oil oversupply; there may be a meeting and negotiation between the US and Russia [6] - **Market Driver**: Short - term bearish impacts are exhausted, geopolitical bullish factors are not obvious, and there is a risk of oversupply in the medium - and long - term [6] 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The settlement price of Brent crude oil increased from 62.56 to 62.72, with an increase of 0.16 and a growth rate of 0.26%; WTI crude oil increased from 58.06 to 58.84, with an increase of 0.78 and a growth rate of 1.34%; SC crude oil decreased from 453.0 to 445.6, with a decrease of 7.40 and a decline rate of 1.63%; Oman crude oil increased from 62.67 to 62.68, with an increase of 0.01 and a growth rate of 0.02% [7] - **Spot Market**: The price of UK Brent Dtd increased from 62.50 to 64.10, with an increase of 1.60 and a growth rate of 2.56%; WTI increased from 58.06 to 58.84, with an increase of 0.78 and a growth rate of 1.34%; Oman crude oil increased from 62.98 to 63.17, with an increase of 0.19 and a growth rate of 0.30%; Shengli crude oil decreased from 58.74 to 58.23, with a decrease of 0.51 and a decline rate of 0.87%; Dubai crude oil decreased from 62.97 to 62.66, with a decrease of 0.31 and a decline rate of 0.49% [9] - **API Inventory**: The API crude oil inventory in the US increased by 4.448 million barrels in the week ending November 14 [3][10] - **EIA Inventory**: The EIA inventory in the US decreased by 3.426 million barrels in the week ending November 14, exceeding the expected decrease of 0.603 million barrels [3][13] 3.5 Position Data - **WTI Crude Oil Fund Net Long Position**: As of October 7, the net long position was 74,309, a decrease of 28,991 [17] - **Brent Crude Oil Fund Net Long Position**: As of November 18, the net long position was 178,364, an increase of 13,497 [19]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The main logic of the industrial silicon market is capacity clearance, cost support, and demand increment. The main factors affecting the market include cost increase support, manufacturers' shutdown and production reduction plans, slow post - holiday demand recovery, and strong supply and weak demand in downstream polysilicon. The main risk points are the impact of shutdown, production reduction/maintenance plans, polysilicon inventory destocking, and resumption trends [11][12][13]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Daily Views Industrial Silicon - **Fundamentals**: Last week, the supply of industrial silicon was 91,000 tons, with no change compared to the previous week. The demand was 80,000 tons, at a low level, with a 4.76% week - on - week decrease. The inventory of crystalline silicon was 271,000 tons, the inventory of silicone was 56,300 tons, and the inventory of aluminum alloy ingots was 75,200 tons. The comprehensive operating rate of silicone was 72.18%, with no change compared to the previous week, and lower than the historical average. The cost support in Xinjiang has increased, showing a bearish trend [6]. - **Basis**: On November 24, the spot price of non - oxygenated silicon in East China was 9,350 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was 410 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures, showing a bullish trend [6]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory was 548,000 tons, a 0.37% week - on - week increase; the sample enterprise inventory was 177,800 tons, a 3.01% week - on - week increase; the main port inventory was 129,000 tons, a 1.57% week - on - week increase, showing a bearish trend [6]. - **Disk**: The MA20 was downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed below the MA20, showing a bearish trend [6]. - **Main Position**: The main position was net short, and the short position increased, showing a bearish trend [6]. - **Expectation**: The supply production schedule has decreased, close to the historical average level. The demand recovery is at a low level, and the cost support has increased. The industrial silicon 2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,835 - 9,045 yuan/ton [6]. Polysilicon - **Fundamentals**: Last week, the polysilicon production was 27,100 tons, a 1.11% week - on - week increase. The forecasted production schedule for November was 120,100 tons, a 10.37% month - on - month decrease. The production of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components has decreased to varying degrees, and the overall demand shows a continuous decline. The cost support has stabilized, showing a bearish trend [8]. - **Basis**: On November 24, the price of N - type dense material was 51,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 1,065 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, showing a bearish trend [8]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory was 271,000 tons, a 1.49% week - on - week increase, at a low level compared to the same period in history, showing a neutral trend [8]. - **Disk**: The MA20 was downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed below the MA20, showing a bearish trend [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position was net long, and the short position turned to long, showing a bullish trend [8]. - **Expectation**: The supply production schedule will decrease in the short term and is expected to recover in the medium term. The overall demand shows a continuous decline, and the cost support has stabilized. The polysilicon 2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 52,465 - 54,165 yuan/ton [8][9]. 2. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Overview - **Industrial Silicon**: The report provides the price, basis, inventory, production, and cost - profit data of industrial silicon contracts, as well as the price, production, and inventory data of downstream products such as silicone and aluminum alloy [15][16]. - **Polysilicon**: The report provides the price, production, inventory, and cost - profit data of polysilicon contracts, as well as the price, production, and inventory data of downstream products such as silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [17]. Other Data and Charts - The report also includes the price - basis and delivery product price difference trends of industrial silicon, the disk price trends of polysilicon, the inventory, production, and capacity utilization trends of industrial silicon, the cost trends of industrial silicon in sample regions, the weekly and monthly supply - demand balance sheets of industrial silicon, and the data and trends of downstream products of industrial silicon such as silicone, aluminum alloy, and polysilicon [19][22][25]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic methanol market is expected to fluctuate and consolidate this week, with some regions possibly experiencing price drops. The inland market may turn weak due to high开工 and low demand, while the port market will continue to bottom - out until the shutdown of Iranian plants is confirmed and port inventory is significantly reduced. The MA2601 contract is expected to trade between 2000 - 2100 yuan/ton [5]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Tips - The fundamentals show that while inland production areas have no inventory pressure, high port inventory suppresses the overall market. The inland market may return to a pattern of high - supply and weak - demand, and the port market will continue to bottom - out. The expected price range for MA2601 this week is 2000 - 2100 yuan/ton. The basis is neutral, inventory is bearish, the market trend is bearish, and the main position is net short with a decrease in short positions [5]. 3.2 Multi - and Short - Term Concerns - **Bullish factors**: Some plants have shut down, such as Yulin Kaiyue and Xinjiang Xinya; Iranian methanol production has decreased, and port inventory is at a low level; a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid plant in Jingmen has started production, and a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid plant in Xinjiang Zhonghe Hezhong is planned to be put into operation this month; northwest CTO plants are purchasing methanol externally [6]. - **Bearish factors**: Previously shut - down plants are restarting, like Inner Mongolia Donghua; there will be concentrated arrivals at ports in the second half of the month; formaldehyde has entered the traditional off - season, and MTBE operating rates have dropped significantly; coal - to - methanol has a certain profit margin and is actively selling; some plants in production areas have accumulated inventory due to poor sales [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Price data**: In the spot market, prices of various regions and varieties have different changes, with some rising and some remaining stable. In the futures market, the closing price of the main contract has increased. There are also corresponding changes in basis, import spreads, and price differences between regions [8]. - **Operating rate data**: The national weighted average operating rate is 74.90%, a decrease of 3.81% from last week. Operating rates in different regions such as East China, Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest have also decreased to varying degrees [8]. - **Inventory data**: As of November 20, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in the East and South China ports is 1243,900 tons, a decrease of 35,100 tons from the previous period. The total available and tradable methanol in coastal areas has decreased by 42,400 tons to 723,500 tons [5]. 3.4 Maintenance Status - **Domestic plants**: Many domestic methanol plants are under maintenance or have reduced production, including those in the Northwest, East China, Southwest, and Northeast regions, with different maintenance start and end times and production losses [62]. - **Overseas plants**: Some Iranian plants are in the process of restarting or have unstable operations, and plants in other countries such as Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and the United States also have different operating conditions [63]. - **Olefin plants**: Some olefin plants with methanol - to - olefin facilities are under maintenance, and others are operating stably or at different loads. For example, Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy's methanol and olefin plants are under maintenance, while some plants in Northwest, East China, Central China, Shandong, and other regions are operating normally or at reduced loads [64].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report The current silicon - manganese market presents a stalemate and game pattern of "strong cost - end and weak demand - end". Affected by the strong cost and downstream price - pressing, the adjustment of the spot market is limited. It is expected that the market will continue to fluctuate in the short term [2]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Manganese Silicon Supply - **Capacity**: The report shows the monthly capacity of Chinese silicon - manganese enterprises [6][7]. - **Annual Output**: It presents the annual output of silicon - manganese in Guangxi, Guizhou, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Yunnan, other regions, and China as a whole [8][9]. - **Weekly, Monthly Output and开工率**: The weekly and monthly output of Chinese silicon - manganese and the weekly开工率 of Chinese silicon - manganese enterprises are provided [10][11]. - **Regional Output**: It includes the monthly output of Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Guizhou, and the daily average output of Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Guizhou, and Guangxi [12][13]. Manganese Silicon Demand - **Steel Tendering Purchase Price**: The monthly purchase prices of silicon - manganese 6517 by Baoshan Iron & Steel Co., Ltd., Baowu E'gang, Chengde Jianlong, and other steel enterprises are shown [15][16]. - **Daily Average Hot Metal and Profit**: The weekly daily average output of hot metal and the weekly profitability of 247 steel enterprises in China are presented [17][18]. Manganese Silicon Import and Export The monthly import and export quantities of silicon - manganese in China are provided [19][20]. Manganese Silicon Inventory The weekly inventory of 63 sample silicon - manganese enterprises in China, the monthly average available days of silicon - manganese inventory in China, the northern region, and the eastern region are shown [21][22]. Manganese Silicon Cost - **Manganese Ore Import Volume**: The monthly import volume of manganese ore by trade method, from Gabon, southern Africa, and Australia to China is presented [23][24]. - **Manganese Ore Port Inventory and Available Days**: The weekly port inventory of manganese ore in China, Qinzhou Port, and Tianjin Port, and the weekly average available days of manganese ore inventory in China are shown [25][26]. - **High - Grade Manganese Ore Port Inventory**: The weekly port inventory of high - grade manganese ore from Australia, Gabon, and Brazil in Qinzhou Port and Tianjin Port is presented [27][28]. - **Tianjin Port Manganese Ore Price**: The daily summary prices of South African semi - carbonate manganese ore, Australian manganese ore, and Gabonese manganese ore in Tianjin Port are provided [29]. - **Regional Cost**: The daily costs of silicon - manganese in Inner Mongolia, the northern region, Ningxia, the southern region, and Guangxi are shown [30][31]. Manganese Silicon Profit The daily profits of silicon - manganese in the northern region, the southern region, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Guangxi are presented [32][33].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The report analyzes the urea market on November 25, 2025, concluding that the overall domestic urea supply exceeds demand, but the improvement in exports boosts the market sentiment. It is expected that the UR contract will fluctuate today [4]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: Current daily production and operating rate have rebounded again, and the comprehensive inventory has declined. On the demand side, agricultural demand has rebounded due to the influence of Northeast China, and industrial demand is mainly based on demand. The operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine have increased year-on-year. With the commissioning of new production capacities such as Xinjiang Zhongneng in the middle of the month, the pressure on the supply side has increased again. The large price difference between domestic and international markets for exports has improved compared with the previous period, boosting the market sentiment. The overall domestic urea supply still exceeds demand. The spot price of the delivery product is 1640 (-10), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2601 contract is 2, and the premium/discount ratio is 0.1%, which is neutral [4]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.537 million tons (-28,000), which is bearish [4]. - **Market**: The 20-day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is below the 20-day line, which is neutral [4]. - **Main Position**: The net short position of the UR main contract has decreased, which is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: For the UR main contract, industrial demand is mainly based on demand, agricultural demand has rebounded, and the improvement in exports compared with the previous period has boosted the market sentiment. The overall domestic supply still significantly exceeds demand. It is expected that the UR will fluctuate today [4]. Factors Affecting the Market - **Positive Factors**: Export improvement [5]. - **Negative Factors**: Domestic supply exceeding demand and new production capacity launch [5]. - **Main Logic**: International prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5]. Spot, Futures, and Inventory Data - **Spot**: The spot price of the delivery product is 1640 (-10), the Shandong spot price is 1640 (-10), the Henan spot price is 1650 (0), and the FOB China price is 2842 [6]. - **Futures**: The price of the UR01 contract is 1638 (-16), the UR05 contract is 1711 (-17), and the UR09 contract is 1722 (-12) [6]. - **Inventory**: The warehouse receipt is 7570 (+387), the UR comprehensive inventory is 1.537 million tons (-28,000), the UR manufacturer inventory is 1.437 million tons, and the UR port inventory is 100,000 tons [6]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2018 to 2024, the urea production capacity has been increasing year by year, with growth rates ranging from 8.4% to 15.5%. Production, net imports, apparent consumption, and actual consumption also show corresponding changes. The import dependence of PP ranges from 10.2% to 19.3%. The expected production capacity in 2025 is 49.06 million tons, with a growth rate of 11.0% [9].

重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年11月25日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 黄金 1、基本面：美联储委员再放鸽，继续助长12月降息预期，金价回升；美国三大股指 全线收涨，欧洲三大股指收盘涨跌不一；美债收益率集体下跌，10年期美债收益率 跌3.66个基点报4.027%；美元指数涨0.05%报100.20，离岸人民币对美元小幅贬值报 7.1068；COMEX黄金期货涨1.33%报4133.8美元/盎司；中性 2、基差：黄金期货927.36，现货926，基差-1.36，现货贴水期货；偏空 3、库存：黄金期货仓单90426千克，不变；偏空 4、盘面：20日均线向下，k线在20日均线下方；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多 ...