1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. 2. Core Views of the Report - For PTA, recent supply reduction exceeds expectations, polyester load remains strong, and the cancellation of India's BIS boosts export demand, reversing the inventory accumulation expectation and potentially leading to phased de - stocking. The spot basis is strong, but the absolute price still follows the cost - end. Attention should be paid to device changes [5]. - For MEG, the port arrivals this week are moderately low, and the port inventory may be slightly compressed early next week. However, there are still plans for large Saudi ships to arrive in early December, and the reduction in external supply is not obvious. The price has fallen to a two - year low, and some short - process oil - chemical plants face great production pressure. It is expected that the price will mainly fluctuate in a wide range in the short term [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Previous Day Review No relevant content found. 3.2. Daily Tips - **PTA** - Fundamentals: The PTA futures rose slightly yesterday, the spot market negotiation atmosphere was okay, and the spot basis was strong. The mainstream spot basis today is 01 - 31 [5]. - Basis: The spot price is 4647, the 01 contract basis is - 37, and the futures price is at a premium [6]. - Inventory: The PTA factory inventory is 3.81 days, a decrease of 0.16 days compared to the previous period [6]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average [6]. - Main force position: Net long, long positions increasing [5]. - Expectation: Supply reduction, strong polyester load, and increased export demand may lead to de - stocking, but the price follows the cost - end [5]. - **MEG** - Fundamentals: On Wednesday, the ethylene glycol price fluctuated and adjusted, and the market negotiation was weak. The basis was weak, and the buying was scarce [7]. - Basis: The spot price is 3910, the 01 contract basis is 14, and the futures price is at a discount [8]. - Inventory: The total inventory in East China is 63.5 tons, an increase of 1.3 tons compared to the previous period [8]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average [8]. - Main force position: Net short, short positions increasing [7]. - Expectation: Port inventory may be compressed slightly, but external supply reduction is not obvious. The price may fluctuate widely in the short term [7]. 3.3. Today's Focus No relevant content found. 3.4. Fundamental Data - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Presents PTA's supply, demand, inventory, and other data from January 2024 to December 2025, including production capacity, production, consumption, and inventory changes [12]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Shows ethylene glycol's supply, demand, inventory, and other data from January 2024 to December 2025, including production capacity utilization, production, import, and consumption [13]. - **Price and Spread Data**: Includes spot and futures prices of various products such as naphtha, PX, PTA, MEG, and polyester fibers, as well as basis, inter - month spreads, and profit data [14]. - **Inventory Analysis**: Displays inventory data of PTA, MEG, PET slices, and polyester fibers over the years [44][46][49]. - **Operating Rate Data**: Presents the operating rates of PTA, PX, MEG, and polyester industries over the years [56][58][60]. - **Profit Data**: Shows the profit data of PTA, MEG, and polyester fibers over the years [64][67][70].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - side showed that last week's lithium carbonate production was 22,130 tons, a 2.71% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. In October 2025, the production was 92,260 physical tons, and the predicted production for next month is 92,080 physical tons, a 0.19% decrease. The import volume in October 2025 was 23,881 physical tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 27,000 tons, a 13.06% increase. - On the demand - side, last week, the inventory of sample lithium iron phosphate enterprises was 102,584 tons, a 2.05% week - on - week decrease, and the inventory of sample ternary material enterprises was 19,290 tons, a 0.41% week - on - week increase. It is expected that the demand will strengthen next month, and the inventory may be reduced. - In terms of cost, the daily - average CIF price of 6% concentrate decreased, lower than the historical average. The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate was 88,499 yuan/ton, a 1.30% daily decrease, with a profit of 89 yuan/ton; the cost of purchased lithium mica was 90,365 yuan/ton, a 3.45% daily decrease, with a loss of 4,041 yuan/ton; the production cost on the recycling side was generally higher than that on the ore side, with negative production income and low production enthusiasm; the quarterly cash production cost on the salt - lake side was 31,477 yuan/ton, significantly lower than that on the ore side, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation. - The main logic is the emotional fluctuations caused by news under the tight supply - demand balance. The main risk points are the impact of shutdown, production reduction, and maintenance plans, and the start time of industry clearance. [8][9][10][13][14] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Supply and Demand Analysis**: The production of lithium carbonate showed an upward trend last week, and the predicted changes in production and import volume for next month indicate a complex supply situation. The demand - side inventory of different materials also changed differently, and overall demand is expected to strengthen. - **Cost Analysis**: Different raw material costs showed different trends, with the salt - lake side having obvious cost advantages. - **Market Outlook**: Lithium carbonate 2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 93,560 - 97,240. - **Leveraging Factors**: The shutdown and production reduction plans of lithium mica manufacturers and the decrease in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile. - **Negative Factors**: The continuous high supply on the ore/salt - lake side with limited decline. [8][9][10][11][12] 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Market Conditions Overview**: The prices of various lithium - related products, including lithium spodumene, lithium mica, lithium carbonate, and lithium hydroxide, showed different changes. The futures closing prices of lithium carbonate also had certain fluctuations, and the basis of the 05 contract indicated that the spot price was at a discount to the futures price. - **Supply - side Data**: The weekly and monthly production, import volume, and production cost of lithium - related products showed different trends. For example, the monthly production of lithium carbonate in October 2025 was 92,260 tons, a 5.73% increase. - **Demand - side Data**: The monthly production, export volume, and battery loading volume of downstream products such as lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and lithium batteries showed different degrees of growth. For example, the monthly production of lithium iron phosphate was 331,470 tons, a 6.35% increase. - **Inventory Data**: The overall inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 1.70% week - on - week, with different trends in the inventory of smelters, downstream enterprises, and other aspects. [15][17] 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore - **Price and Production**: The price of lithium ore showed a long - term change trend, and the production of lithium spodumene and lithium mica mines in China also changed over time. - **Import and Self - sufficiency Rate**: The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate and the self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore changed in different periods. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory of port traders and unsold lithium ore showed different trends in different years. [24] 3.4 Supply - Lithium Ore - Supply and Demand Balance Sheet The supply and demand balance of domestic lithium ore showed different situations in different months from 2024 to 2025, with fluctuations in demand, production, import, and export, resulting in different balance results. [26][28] 3.5 Supply - Lithium Carbonate - **Production and Capacity**: The weekly and monthly production, capacity, and production capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate from different sources (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt - lake, and recycling materials) showed different trends. - **Import**: The monthly import volume of lithium carbonate from different countries (Chile, Argentina, etc.) and the total import volume changed over time. - **Supply and Demand Balance**: The supply and demand balance of lithium carbonate showed different situations in different months from 2024 to 2025, with fluctuations in demand, production, import, and export, resulting in different balance results. [30][35] 3.6 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: The weekly capacity utilization rate, monthly production, and production capacity of domestic lithium hydroxide from different sources (smelting and causticizing) showed different trends. - **Export**: The export volume of Chinese lithium hydroxide showed different trends in different years. - **Supply and Demand Balance**: The supply and demand balance of lithium hydroxide showed different situations in different months from 2024 to 2025, with fluctuations in demand, production, import, and export, resulting in different balance results. [37][39] 3.7 Lithium Compound Cost and Profit - **Cost and Profit of Different Raw Materials**: The cost and profit of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica concentrate, and recycling materials for lithium carbonate production showed different trends. - **Processing Cost Composition**: The processing cost composition of lithium mica and lithium spodumene, including energy consumption, auxiliary materials, and miscellaneous expenses, showed different proportions. - **Profit of Different Processes**: The profit of industrial - grade lithium carbonate purification, lithium hydroxide carbonization to lithium carbonate, and other processes showed different trends. [42][44][47] 3.8 Inventory The inventory of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide in different periods (weekly and monthly) and from different sources (smelters and downstream enterprises) showed different trends. [49] 3.9 Demand - Lithium Battery - **Price and Cost**: The price and cost of lithium batteries, including power batteries and energy - storage batteries, showed different trends in different years. - **Production and Export**: The monthly production volume, export volume, and monthly cell production of lithium batteries showed different degrees of growth. [52][54] 3.10 Demand - Ternary Precursor - **Price and Cost**: The price and cost of ternary precursors, including different series (5 - series, 6 - series, 8 - series), showed different trends in different years. - **Production and Supply - Demand Balance**: The monthly production volume and supply - demand balance of ternary precursors showed different situations in different months from 2024 to 2025, with fluctuations in demand, production, import, and export, resulting in different balance results. [58][61] 3.11 Demand - Ternary Material - **Price and Cost - Profit**: The price, cost, and profit of ternary materials, including different series (5 - series, 6 - series, 8 - series), showed different trends in different years. - **Production, Inventory, and Trade**: The weekly production capacity utilization rate, weekly inventory, and import - export volume of ternary materials showed different trends. [64][66] 3.12 Demand - Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium - **Price, Cost, and Profit**: The price, cost, and profit of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium showed different trends in different years. - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: The monthly production volume, monthly capacity utilization rate, and annual production capacity of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium showed different trends. [68][71] 3.13 Demand - New Energy Vehicle - **Production, Sales, and Export**: The production volume, sales volume, and export volume of new energy vehicles showed different degrees of growth in different years. - **Penetration Rate and Zero - Batch Ratio**: The sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles and the zero - batch ratios of hybrid and pure - electric vehicles of the Passenger Car Association showed different trends. [76][80]

Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Views - The overall supply pressure of PVC is increasing, and the demand may remain weak. The cost of calcium carbide method and ethylene method is weakening, and the overall cost is also decreasing. The inventory is at a neutral level. The PVC2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4465 - 4517. The main logic is that the overall supply pressure is strong, and the domestic demand recovery is sluggish [4][6]. - The positive factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits. The negative factors include the rebound of overall supply pressure, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Views - **Fundamentals**: In October 2025, PVC production was 2.12812 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.79%. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 78.83%, with no month - on - month change. Calcium carbide method enterprise production was 345,780 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.65%, and ethylene method enterprise production was 134,660 tons, a month - on - month decrease of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 2025-11-26 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸大豆观点和策略 ✸豆粕观点和策略 豆粕M2601：3000至3060区间震荡 1.基本面：美豆震荡收涨，市场关注中国量采购美豆进展和技术性震荡整理，美豆短期回归 震荡等待中美贸易协议执行后续和南美大豆产区种植天气进一步指引。国内豆粕震荡回 升，美豆走势带动和技术性震荡整理，需求短期改善和现货价格贴水压制盘面反弹高度， 短期或维持震荡格局。中性 2.基差：现货2980（华东），基差-33，贴水期货。偏空 3.库存：油厂豆粕库存99.29万吨，上周115.3万吨，环比减少13.89%，去年同期77.86万吨， 同比增加2 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply-side production schedule has decreased and is near the historical average level. Demand recovery remains at a low level, and cost support has increased. The industrial silicon 2601 is expected to fluctuate between 8855 - 9065 [6]. - For polysilicon, the supply-side production schedule will decrease in the short term and is expected to recover in the medium term. Demand from the silicon wafer, battery cell, and component sectors continues to decline, showing overall demand recession. Cost support has stabilized. The polysilicon 2601 is expected to fluctuate between 53895 - 55565 [8]. - The main logic for the market is capacity clearance, cost support, and demand growth. The main bullish factors are rising cost support and manufacturers' plans to halt or reduce production. The main bearish factors are the slow post-festival demand recovery and the strong supply and weak demand of downstream polysilicon [11][12]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Views Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: Last week's industrial silicon supply was 91,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week [6]. - **Demand**: Last week's industrial silicon demand was 80,000 tons, a 4.76% decrease from the previous week. Demand remains persistently weak. The inventory of crystalline silicon is 271,000 tons, at a low level. Silicon wafers and battery cells are in a loss-making state, while components are profitable. The inventory of silicone is 56,300 tons, also at a low level. The production profit of silicone is 768 yuan/ton, and its comprehensive operating rate is 72.18%, unchanged from the previous week and lower than the historical average. The inventory of aluminum alloy ingots is 75,200 tons, at a high level. The import loss is 543 yuan/ton, and the freight and profit of A356 aluminum delivered to Wuxi are 672.91 yuan/ton. The operating rate of recycled aluminum is 60.6%, unchanged from the previous week and at a high level [6]. - **Cost**: The production loss of sample oxygenated 553 silicon in Xinjiang is 2,874 yuan/ton. Cost support has increased during the dry season [6]. - **Basis**: On November 25th, the spot price of non-oxygenated silicon in East China was 9,350 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was 390 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory is 548,000 tons, a 0.37% increase from the previous week. The inventory of sample enterprises is 177,800 tons, a 3.01% increase. The inventory of major ports is 129,000 tons, a 1.57% increase [6]. - **Market**: MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed below MA20 [6]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, with a decrease in short positions [6]. Polysilicon - **Supply**: Last week's polysilicon production was 27,100 tons, a 1.11% increase from the previous week. The production schedule for November is forecasted to be 120,100 tons, a 10.37% decrease from the previous month [8]. - **Demand**: Last week's silicon wafer production was 12.78GW, a 2.59% decrease from the previous week. Inventory was 187,200 tons, a 1.62% increase. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss-making state. The production schedule for November is 57.66GW, a 4.92% decrease from the previous month. In October, battery cell production was 59.27GW, a 2.78% decrease. Last week, the inventory of battery cell external sales factories was 12.05GW, a 18.02% increase. Currently, production is in a loss-making state. The production schedule for November is 58.68GW, a 0.99% decrease. In October, component production was 48.1GW, a 3.60% decrease. The estimated component production for November is 46.92GW, a 2.45% decrease. The domestic monthly inventory is 24.76GW, a 51.73% decrease. The European monthly inventory is 35.4GW, a 5.35% increase. Currently, component production is profitable [8]. - **Cost**: The average industry cost of N-type polysilicon materials is 38,920 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 12,080 yuan/ton [8]. - **Basis**: On November 25th, the price of N-type dense materials was 51,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was -2,480 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: Weekly inventory is 271,000 tons, a 1.49% increase from the previous week, and is at a historical low [8]. - **Market**: MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed above MA20 [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net long, with an increase in long positions [8]. 2. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Overview Industrial Silicon - The prices of most industrial silicon futures contracts increased slightly. The spot prices of various grades of silicon in East China remained unchanged [15]. - Social inventory, sample enterprise inventory, and major port inventory all increased to varying degrees [15]. - The production of some sample enterprises decreased, and the operating rates of some regions remained unchanged [15]. Polysilicon - The prices of most polysilicon futures contracts increased. The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remained mostly unchanged [17]. - The inventory of silicon wafers and battery cells increased, while the domestic inventory of components decreased, and the European inventory increased [17]. - The production of silicon wafers and battery cells decreased, and the production of components is expected to decrease [17]. 3. Price, Inventory, Production, and Cost Trends Industrial Silicon - **Price and Basis**: The price and basis trends of industrial silicon show certain fluctuations over time [19]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of industrial silicon in warehouses and ports, as well as the weekly inventory of sample enterprises, shows different trends over time [25]. - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: The production and capacity utilization of industrial silicon in different regions and specifications show different trends over time [28]. - **Cost**: The cost and profit trends of industrial silicon in sample regions show different trends over time [35]. Polysilicon - **Price and Basis**: The price and basis trends of polysilicon futures show certain fluctuations over time [22]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of polysilicon shows different trends over time [62]. - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: The monthly production and operating rate of polysilicon show different trends over time [62]. - **Cost**: The cost trend of the polysilicon industry shows different trends over time [62]. 4. Supply and Demand Balance Industrial Silicon - The weekly and monthly supply and demand balance of industrial silicon shows different trends over time. There are differences in production, consumption, import, and export volumes [37][40]. Polysilicon - The monthly supply and demand balance of polysilicon shows different trends over time. There are differences in supply, consumption, import, and export volumes [64]. 5. Downstream Market Trends Organic Silicon - The price, production, and inventory trends of DMC, as well as the price trends of downstream products, show different trends over time [43][45]. - The import, export, and inventory trends of DMC show different trends over time [48]. Aluminum Alloy - The price, supply, inventory, and production trends of aluminum alloy show different trends over time. The demand from the automotive and wheel hub sectors also shows different trends [51][54][56]. Polysilicon Downstream - The price, production, inventory, and demand trends of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components show different trends over time [67][70][73]. - The price, production, inventory, and import/export trends of photovoltaic accessories show different trends over time [76]. - The cost, profit, and power generation trends of photovoltaic components show different trends over time [79][80].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-11-26甲醇早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 检修状况 甲醇2601： 1、基本面：产区甲醇工厂无库存压力，但港口高库存对整体行情有压制作用，预计本周国内甲醇震荡整理，且部分地 区不排除走跌可能。内地方面来看，虽然当前产区工厂暂无库存压力，但市场消息称托县甲醇装置近期有重启计划，内 地重回高开工弱需求的供应格局，以及港口进口货源持续倒流内地，业者对后市心态谨慎，后期或震荡偏弱。港口方 面，伊朗多套装置停车兑现和港口库存明显去化，才能构成行情反转的支撑点，在此达成之前，期现货深度磨底。预计 本周港口甲醇市场延续探底，不过目前绝对价格来看，预计下方空间有限；关注伊朗装置检修实际落地节点；中性 2 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal RM2601 will fluctuate in the range of 2400 - 2460. The market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. Although the peak season for rapeseed meal spot demand has passed, low inventory supports the market. The market will maintain range - bound fluctuations in the short term, affected by soybean meal and the uncertain Sino - Canadian trade relations [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Tips - Rapeseed meal fluctuates and closes higher, driven by soybean meal and technical shock consolidation. The market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The short - term market is affected by soybean meal and maintains range - bound fluctuations [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the off - season after the long holiday, and the supply in the spot market is expected to be tight in the short term. The demand is gradually decreasing, suppressing the market. Canadian rapeseed is in the harvesting stage, but Sino - Canadian trade issues have reduced short - term exports and domestic supply expectations. - China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports has been established, and an import deposit of 75.8% has been imposed. The final ruling is still uncertain. - Global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially in Canada. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues. The reduction in Ukraine's rapeseed production and the increase in Russia's production offset each other. Geopolitical conflicts may support commodity prices [11]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns - **Likely to Rise**: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and the relatively low inventory pressure of rapeseed meal in oil mills [12]. - **Likely to Fall**: The domestic rapeseed meal demand is gradually entering the off - season, and there is still a small probability of reconciliation in the final result of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports [12]. - **Main Logic**: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the Canadian rapeseed tariff war [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Price and Basis**: The spot price is 2530, and the basis is 99, indicating a premium over the futures, which is a positive factor [9]. - **Inventory**: Rapeseed meal inventory is 1.75 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.78% and a year - on - year decrease of 20.45%, which is a positive factor [9]. - **Market**: The price is below the 20 - day moving average and moving downward, which is a negative factor [9]. - **Trading Data**: From November 17th to 25th, the average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly. The trading volume of soybean meal varied, while the trading volume of rapeseed meal was 0 [13]. 3.5 Position Data - The number of long positions of the main force has decreased, and funds have flowed out [9]. 3.6 Rapeseed Meal Futures and Spot Price Summary - From November 17th to 25th, the prices of rapeseed meal futures (both the main 2601 and the far - month 2605) and the spot price in Fujian fluctuated. The futures price generally showed a downward trend, and the spot price also fluctuated within a certain range [15]. 3.7 Rapeseed Meal Warehouse Receipt Statistics - From November 14th to 25th, the rapeseed meal warehouse receipts decreased significantly. From November 19th, the warehouse receipts decreased from 2745 to 0 [17]. 3.8 Other Information - Rapeseed meal futures have declined with fluctuations, and the spot price has followed the trend. The spot premium has fluctuated slightly. - The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal has fluctuated slightly, and the price difference of the 2601 contract has also fluctuated slightly. - There is no shipping schedule forecast for imported rapeseed in November, and the import cost is affected by tariffs. - The inventory of rapeseed in oil mills remains low, and the inventory of rapeseed meal is also at a low level. - The rapeseed crushing volume in oil mills remains at zero. - The price of aquatic fish has declined slightly, while the price of shrimp and shellfish has remained stable [18][20][23][25][27][35].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - side shows that in November 2025, the total planned output of refinery asphalt is 1.312 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.5%. The capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples is 26.4262%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.37 percentage points. Refineries have reduced production this week to ease supply pressure, but supply pressure may increase next week. [8] - The demand - side indicates that the开工 rates of heavy - traffic asphalt, building asphalt, and modified asphalt are generally lower than the historical average, with only the road - modified asphalt and waterproofing membrane开工率 slightly better. Overall, current demand is below the historical average. [8] - From the cost perspective, the daily asphalt processing profit is - 453.38 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.04%, and the weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong refineries is 1,086.84 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 18.76%. Asphalt processing losses have increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has also increased. With the strengthening of crude oil, short - term cost support is expected to strengthen. [8] - The basis shows that on November 25, the spot price in Shandong is 3,020 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract is - 48 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is bearish. [8] - In terms of inventory, social inventory is 794,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.75%; factory inventory is 642,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.77%; port diluted asphalt inventory is 800,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.57%. Social and factory inventories are continuously decreasing, while port inventory is increasing. [8] - The market trend suggests that the MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closes below the MA20. The main positions are net short, and short positions are increasing. Considering the above factors, it is expected that the asphalt 2601 will fluctuate in the range of 3,043 - 3,093 in the short term. [8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Fundamentals**: Supply - side data shows changes in production, capacity utilization, and device maintenance. Demand - side开工率s are generally low. Cost - side processing profits and profit differences have changed, and crude oil is expected to support prices. [8] - **Basis**: The spot in Shandong is at a discount to the futures, which is bearish. [8] - **Inventory**: Social and factory inventories are decreasing, while port inventory is increasing. [8] - **Market**: The MA20 is downward, and the 01 contract closes below it. The main positions are net short. [8] - **Expectation**: The asphalt 2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 3,043 - 3,093 in the short term. [8] 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report presents the historical trends of the Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 to 2025, which can help analyze the relationship between spot and futures prices. [18][19][20] 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - **Main Contract Spread**: The historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads from 2020 to 2025 are shown, which is useful for spread trading analysis. [22][23] - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: The historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and WTI crude oil from 2020 to 2025 are presented, helping to understand the relationship between asphalt and crude oil prices. [25][26] - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: The historical crack spreads of asphalt and different types of crude oil (SC, WTI, Brent) from 2020 to 2025 are shown, which is important for analyzing refining profits. [28][29][30] - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: The historical price ratio trends of asphalt, SC crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 to 2025 are presented, which can assist in relative - value analysis. [32][34] 3.4 Asphalt Spot Market - Regional Market Price Trends - The historical price trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025 is shown, which helps understand the price changes in the spot market. [35][36] 3.5 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis** - **Asphalt Profit**: The historical asphalt profit from 2019 to 2025 is presented, which is important for analyzing the profitability of asphalt production. [38][39] - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: The historical spread trend between coking and asphalt profits from 2020 to 2025 is shown, which can help understand the profit relationship between different refining products. [41][42][43] - **Supply - Side Analysis** - **Shipment Volume**: The historical weekly shipment volume of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 to 2025 is presented, which can reflect the sales situation of asphalt. [45][46] - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: The historical port inventory of diluted asphalt from 2021 to 2025 is shown, which is important for analyzing supply - side inventory changes. [47][48] - **Production Volume**: The historical weekly and monthly production volumes of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 are presented, which can help understand the overall supply situation. [50][51] - **Marey Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend**: The historical price of Marey crude oil and the monthly production of Venezuelan crude oil from 2018 to 2025 are shown, which can affect the cost and supply of asphalt. [54][56] - **Refinery Asphalt Production**: The historical production of refinery asphalt from 2019 to 2025 is presented, which is an important part of asphalt supply. [57][58] - **开工率**: The historical weekly开工率 of asphalt from 2021 to 2025 is shown, which can reflect the production activity of the asphalt industry. [60][61] - **Maintenance Loss Estimation**: The historical estimated maintenance loss volume from 2018 to 2025 is presented, which can affect the supply of asphalt. [63][64] - **Inventory Analysis** - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: The historical exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) from 2019 to 2025 are shown, which can reflect the inventory situation in the futures market. [66][67][68] - **Social and Factory Inventories**: The historical social and factory inventories of asphalt from 2022 to 2025 are presented, which are important indicators of supply - demand balance. [70][71] - **Factory Inventory - to - Stock Ratio**: The historical factory inventory - to - stock ratio from 2018 to 2025 is shown, which can help analyze the inventory management of factories. [73][74] - **Import - Export Situation** - The historical export and import trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 are presented, which can affect the domestic supply - demand balance. [76][77] - The historical import price spread trend of South Korean asphalt from 2020 to 2025 is shown, which is important for analyzing import costs. [80][81] - **Demand - Side Analysis** - **Petroleum Coke Production**: The historical production of petroleum coke from 2019 to 2025 is presented, which is related to the demand for asphalt in the refining process. [82][83] - **Apparent Consumption**: The historical apparent consumption of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 is shown, which can reflect the overall market demand. [85][86] - **Downstream Demand** - **Infrastructure - related**: The historical trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion from 2019 to 2025 are presented, which are related to the demand for asphalt in infrastructure construction. [88][90] - **Mechanical Demand**: The historical sales volume of asphalt concrete pavers, the monthly working hours of excavators, and the sales volume of domestic excavators from 2020 to 2025 are shown, which can reflect the construction activity and demand for asphalt. [92][93][95] - **Asphalt开工率** - **Heavy - Traffic Asphalt**: The historical开工率 of heavy - traffic asphalt from 2019 to 2025 is presented, which can reflect the demand for heavy - traffic asphalt. [97][98] - **By - Use Asphalt**: The historical开工率s of building asphalt and modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025 are shown, which can reflect the demand for different types of asphalt. [100] - **Downstream开工情况**: The historical开工率s of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025 are presented, which can reflect the demand for asphalt in downstream industries. [101][102][104] - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to November 2025 is presented, including downstream demand, port inventory, factory inventory, social inventory, export, import, and production, which can comprehensively reflect the supply - demand relationship of asphalt. [106][107]

Report Overview - The report is a Polyolefin Morning Report dated November 26, 2025, focusing on LLDPE and PP [2] Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Core Viewpoints - LLDPE and PP are expected to show a volatile trend today due to factors such as oversupply, weak downstream demand, and high - neutral industrial inventories [4][6] Summary by Content LLDPE Analysis - **Fundamentals**: In October, the official PMI was 49, down 0.8 points from the previous month. After the China - US leaders' meeting, some restrictions were lifted. OPEC+ adjusted the oil market from undersupply to oversupply, causing oil prices to fall. Agricultural film demand declined, and other film demands were mainly for rigid needs. The current LLDPE delivery spot price is 6840, and the overall fundamentals are bearish [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is 78, with a premium - discount ratio of 1.2%, which is bullish [4] - **Inventory**: PE comprehensive inventory is 554,000 tons, a decrease of 25,000 tons, which is bearish [4] - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4] - **Main Position**: The net long position of the LLDPE main contract is increasing, which is bullish [4] - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to be volatile today due to oversupply, falling downstream demand, and high - neutral inventory [4] - **Likely Factors**: Bullish factors include new sanctions on Russian oil leading to a rebound in oil prices and the phased easing of China - US relations; bearish factors are weak demand compared to the same period and many new production projects in the fourth quarter [5] PP Analysis - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the economic environment is affected by PMI decline and oil market adjustment. The demand for plastic weaving is average, while the demand for pipes has increased. The current PP delivery spot price is 6380, and the overall fundamentals are bearish [6] - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is 63, with a premium - discount ratio of 1.0%, which is neutral [6] - **Inventory**: PP comprehensive inventory is 594,000 tons, a decrease of 26,000 tons, which is bearish [6] - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [6] - **Main Position**: The net short position of the PP main contract is increasing, which is bearish [6] - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to be volatile today due to oversupply, average downstream demand, and high - neutral inventory [6] - **Likely Factors**: Similar to LLDPE, bullish factors are new sanctions on Russian oil and China - US relations easing; bearish factors are weak demand compared to the same period and many new production projects in the fourth quarter [7] Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polyethylene generally showed an upward trend, while the import dependence gradually decreased. The production capacity in 2025E is expected to reach 43.195 million tons, with a growth rate of 20.5% [13] - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polypropylene also showed an upward trend, and the import dependence decreased. The production capacity in 2025E is expected to reach 4.906 million tons, with a growth rate of 11.0% [15] Price and Inventory Data - **LLDPE**: The spot price of the delivery product is 6840, the price of the 01 contract is 6762, down 31. The basis is 78, and the warehouse receipt is 11,701, a decrease of 20. PE comprehensive factory inventory is 554,000 tons, and social inventory is 471,000 tons, a decrease of 15,000 tons [8] - **PP**: The spot price of the delivery product is 6380, the price of the 01 contract is 6317, down 55. The basis is 63, and the warehouse receipt is 15,668, a decrease of 65. PP comprehensive factory inventory is 594,000 tons, and social inventory is 321,000 tons [8]

重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花早报——2025年11月26日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 棉花： 1、基本面：ICAC11月报：25/26年度产量2540万吨，消费2500万吨。USDA11月报：25/26年度 产量2614.5万吨，消费2588.3万吨，期末库存1653.2万吨。海关：10月纺织品服装出口 222.62亿美元，同比下降12.63%。10月份我国棉花进口9万吨，同比减少15.6%；棉纱进口14 万吨，同比增加16.7%。农村部11月25/26年度：产量660万吨，进口140万吨，消费740万吨， 期末库存845万吨。中性。 2、基差：现货3128b全国均价14832，基差1187（01合约 ...