Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 2 月 3 日星期二 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料，格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 格林大华期货研究院所有 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 研究员：吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 重要事项: | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 周一夜盘瓶片主力价格下跌 88 元至 6084 元/吨。华东水瓶级瓶片价格 6170 元/吨 （-150），华南瓶片价格 6250 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The global economy has passed its peak and is starting to decline due to continuous wrong policies in the US [2] - There is significant uncertainty in the global economic situation, influenced by factors such as potential inflation resurgence, Fed policy changes, and geopolitical issues [1][2] Summary by Related Content Global Economic News - Global financial giants like BlackRock, Pimco, and Bridgewater are guarding against inflation resurgence, with the 10 - year inflation swap reaching its highest increase in a year. Some top - tier institutions warn that inflation may return above 4% by the end of the year [1] - Morgan Stanley believes that the Fed's current large balance sheet is a decision of the existing FOMC. If unemployment drops further, spending remains strong, and inflation doesn't decline, the Fed may keep interest rates unchanged this year [1] - Oracle plans to raise up to $50 billion in 2026 through bond and equity financing for cloud infrastructure expansion, but it already has $95 billion in debt [1] - Red杉 Capital partner thinks SpaceX's valuation has soared from $36 billion in 2019 to $800 billion, and Musk's business value is still underestimated [1] - Tesla will unveil the third - generation humanoid robot, with a planned annual production of 1 million units. The Model S/X production line at the Fremont factory will be converted, and mass production is expected to start by the end of 2026 [1] - The market interprets Japan's statement on "enhancing economic resilience to exchange - rate fluctuations" as a cautious downgrade of direct yen intervention. The yen faces a rising risk of a short - term decline [1] - Due to inflation stickiness and strong employment, the market is re - evaluating the Reserve Bank of Australia's policy. The probability of a 25 - basis - point rate hike this week has risen to 73%, and the 10 - year bond yield is approaching 5% [1] - Japan officially confirmed no actual intervention in the foreign - exchange market in January. The future of the yen is uncertain as the US denies coordinated action, and Japan may face stronger intervention pressure after the election [1] Global Economic Logic - Bridgewater's Dalio warns that the US is at risk of civil war, and investors should be aware of capital - control risks [2] - The expected balance - sheet reduction policy of Fed nominee chair Wash has a strong negative impact on global equity and commodity assets [2] - Geopolitical actions by the US, such as seizing Venezuelan oil and attempting to buy Greenland, bring great uncertainty to the global economy [2] - Nomura says Fed - related uncertainties may peak from July to November 2026, potentially leading to a "flight from US assets" [2] - Goldman Sachs warns that the decline in Las Vegas gambling revenue is similar to the early warning signs before the 2008 financial crisis [2] - The US is adjusting its economic relationship with China and aiming to revive its economic autonomy [2] - The Fed's Beige Book shows a K - shaped consumer spending pattern, with high - income consumers maintaining spending while low - and middle - income families cut back [2] - TSMC's Q4 performance and 2026 revenue guidance signal the continuation of the AI boom [2] - Musk hopes to achieve full rocket reusability with Starship this year, which could reduce space - entry costs by 100 times to below $100 per pound [2] - The US's return to the Monroe Doctrine will have a profound impact on major asset classes [2] - Wash's proposed combination of rate cuts and balance - sheet reduction indicates a major shift in Fed policy, creating expectations of strong liquidity contraction for equity assets [2]

市场快讯---原油跌停，化工大面积飘绿 2026年2月2日 数据来源：wind 免责声明：本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证，不保证报告信息已做最新变更，也不保证分析师做出的任何建议不会发生任何变更。在任何情况下，报告中的信息或所表达的意见并不构 成所述期货品种买卖的出价或询价。在任何情况下，我公司不就报告中的任何内容对任何投资所做出任何形式的担保，投资者据此投资，投资风险自我承担。我公司可能发出与本报告意见不一致的其他报告，本报告反映分析师本人的意见 与结论，并不代表我公司的立场。未经我公司同意，任何人不得对本报告进行任何形式的发布、复制或对本报告进行有悖原意的删节和修改。 研究员：吴志桥 从业资格 F03085283 交易咨询：Z0019267 联系方式：wuzhiqiao@greendh.com 格林大华 期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288号 2026年2月2日 数据来源：wind 免责声明：本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证，不保证报告信息已做最新变更，也不保证分析师做出的任何建议不会发生任何变更。在任何情况下， ...

Report Investment Rating for the Industry - The investment rating for the coking coal and coke sector in the black industry is "oscillating with an upward bias" [1] Core View of the Report - The market shows strong expectations for demand improvement. Although the first - round price increase of coke has been fully implemented, there is unlikely to be a second - round increase before the Spring Festival. There may be some restocking demand for coking coal after the Spring Festival. The coking coal主力合约 is trying to break through the upper pressure level of 1,200, and it is considered to be oscillating with an upward bias in the short term [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Quotes - On Friday, the coking coal主力 contract Jm2605 closed at 1,155.5 yuan/ton, a 0.82% decline compared to the daytime session opening. The coke主力 contract J2605 closed at 1,721.5 yuan/ton, a 0.09% decline compared to the daytime session opening. On Friday night, the coking coal主力 contract closed at 1,194.0 yuan/ton, a 3.33% increase compared to the daytime session closing, and the coke主力 contract closed at 1,746.0 yuan/ton, a 1.42% increase compared to the daytime session closing [1] Important News - In 2025, the national fiscal revenue was 21.6 trillion yuan, a 1.7% year - on - year decrease, and fiscal expenditure was 28.74 trillion yuan, a 1% year - on - year increase [1] - In January 2026, the national steel industry PMI was 47.4, up 2.2 percentage points from 45.2 in December 2025. It remained in the contraction range for the third consecutive month, but the recovery amplitude was significantly larger [1] - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) raised the trading margin requirements for COMEX gold and silver futures. For non - high - risk accounts, the gold futures margin will be increased from 6% to 8% of the current contract value, and for high - risk accounts, it will be raised from 6.6% to 8.8%. For silver, the non - high - risk account margin will be increased from 11% to 15%, and the high - risk account margin will be raised from 12.1% to 16.5% [1] - According to Mysteel's research, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 79%, a 0.32 - percentage - point increase compared to last week and a 1.02 - percentage - point increase compared to last year. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 85.47%, a 0.04 - percentage - point decrease compared to last week and a 0.83 - percentage - point increase compared to last year. The steel mill profitability rate was 39.39%, a 1.30 - percentage - point decrease compared to last week and a 9.53 - percentage - point decrease compared to last year. The daily average pig iron output was 2.2798 million tons, a 0.12 - million - ton decrease compared to last week and a 2.53 - million - ton increase compared to last year [1] Market Logic - Last week, macroscopically, many real - estate enterprises are no longer required by regulatory authorities to report the "three red lines" indicators monthly, which is beneficial to the real - estate and its upstream industrial chains. Fundamentally, as the Spring Festival holiday approaches, the downstream demand is expected to decline, and the auction transaction situation is average [1] - Although the first - round price increase of coke has been fully implemented today, there is unlikely to be a second - round increase before the Spring Festival. During the Spring Festival, the supply side will cut production, and coking enterprises need to maintain basic daily consumption. There may be some restocking demand for coking coal after the Spring Festival [1] Trading Strategy - The coking coal主力 contract has increased long positions and is trying to break through the upper pressure level of 1,200. It should be viewed as oscillating with an upward bias in the short term [1]

Morning session notice 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 2 月 2 日星期一 重要事项: 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料，格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 格林大华期货研究院所有 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 周五尿素主力合约 2605 价格下跌 24 元至 1790 元/吨，华中主流地区现货价格 1770 元/吨。持仓方面，多头持仓减少 14423 手至 21.67 万手，空头持仓减少 25639 手至 24.19 万手 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the methanol in the energy and chemical sector is "Oscillation" [2] Report's Core View - The uncertainty of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East is large, and crude oil fluctuates sharply. Last week, methanol at ports had a slight inventory build - up, and inventory decreased in production areas.提货 during the Spring Festival holiday may weaken, and the fundamentals lack continuous drivers. Methanol prices will continue to oscillate. Attention should be paid to the development of the Middle East situation, and high inventory may limit the upside. The reference range for the 05 contract is 2270 - 2380. The trading strategy is to wait and see [2] Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Review - On Friday night, the futures price of the main 2605 contract of methanol fell 15 yuan to 2341 yuan/ton, and the spot price of methanol in the mainstream East China region fell 12 yuan to 2270 yuan/ton. In terms of positions, long positions increased by 371 lots to 613,000 lots, and short positions increased by 44,528 lots to 739,000 lots [2] Important Information - Supply: The domestic methanol operating rate is 89.9%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.3%. The overseas methanol operating rate is 52.1%, a month - on - month decrease of 8.6% [2] - Inventory: The total inventory of methanol ports in China is 147.21 tons, an increase of 1.46 tons compared with the previous data. Among them, inventory in East China increased by 4.76 tons, and inventory in South China decreased by 3.3 tons. The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is 42.41 tons, a decrease of 1.42 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 3.24% [2] - Demand: The signed orders of northwest methanol enterprises are 11.31 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.04 tons. The pending orders of sample enterprises are 26.57 tons, an increase of 2.74 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 11.50%. The olefin operating rate is 85.1%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.7%; the methyl chloride operating rate is 74.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.5%; the acetic acid operating rate is 80.6%, a month - on - month increase of 2.2%; the formaldehyde operating rate is 34.5%, a month - on - month increase of 0.2%; the MTBE operating rate is 68.0%, a month - on - month increase of 0.4% [2] - Import: In December 2025, China's methanol import volume was 173.40 tons, a month - on - month increase of 24.56%, and the average import price was 240.61 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 7.23%. Among them, the import volume from Saudi Arabia was the largest at 60.44 tons, and the average import price was 238.74 US dollars/ton. From January to December 2025, China's cumulative methanol import volume was 1440.54 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.75% [2] - Oil Price: The US and Iran keep the option of dialogue and consultation, and the supply risk concerns caused by the tense geopolitical situation have been alleviated, and international oil prices have fallen. The NYMEX crude oil futures 03 contract is at 65.21, down 0.21 US dollars/barrel, a month - on - month decrease of 0.32%; the ICE Brent crude oil futures 03 contract is at 70.69, down 0.02 US dollars/barrel, a month - on - month decrease of 0.03%. The China INE crude oil futures 2603 contract rose 15.9 to 482.9 yuan/barrel and fell 12.9 to 470 yuan/barrel at night [2] Market Logic - The uncertainty of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East is large, and crude oil fluctuates sharply. Last week, methanol at ports had a slight inventory build - up, and inventory decreased in production areas.提货 during the Spring Festival holiday may weaken, and the fundamentals lack continuous drivers. Methanol prices will continue to oscillate. Attention should be paid to the development of the Middle East situation, and high inventory may limit the upside [2] Trading Strategy - The trading strategy is to wait and see [2]

更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 2 月 2 日星期一 研究员：李方磊 从业资格：F03104461 交易咨询资格：Z0021311 联系方式：19339940612 Morning session notice 早盘提示 ddddddddddddddddddddddddddd | | | | | 【交易策略】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 农林畜 | 红枣 | 震 偏弱 | 荡 | 【行情复盘】 周五 CJ605 合约收盘价 8950 元/吨，日涨幅 0.62%。CJ609 合约收盘价 9165 元/吨， 日涨幅 0.71%。 【重要资讯】 1.上周 36 家样本点物理库存在 13143 吨，较上周减少 925 吨。样本点库存环比下 降。 2.周五河北特级红枣批发价 9.31 元/公斤，日环比+0.01 元/公斤。 3.周五广东如意坊市场到货车辆 6 车，日环比-1 车。 4.周五红枣仓单 3317 张，日环比+4 张。 【市场逻辑】 上周红枣期价重心小幅抬升。当下红枣基本面可供交易信息有限， ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 2 月 2 日星期一 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 周五夜盘瓶片主力价格上下跌 50 元至 6274 元/吨。华东水瓶级瓶片价格 6320 元/ 吨（-65），华南瓶片价格 6350 元/吨（-50）。持仓方面，多头持仓减少 1401 手至 5.72 万手，空头持仓减少 964 手至 6.06 万手。 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 能源与化 | | | 【重要资讯】 1、供应和成本利润方面，本周国内聚酯瓶片产量为 29.9 万吨，环比-0.52 万吨。 国内聚酯瓶片产能利用率周均值为 64.6%，环比-1.1%；聚酯瓶片生产成本 5813 元， 环比+269 元/吨；聚酯瓶片周生产毛利为-48 元/吨，环比-7 元/吨。 2、2025 年 12 月中国聚酯瓶片出口 58.87 万吨，较上月增加 5.57 万吨，或+10.44%。 2025 年 1-12 ...

Morning session notice Morning session notice 早盘提示 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 2 月 2 日星期一 研究员： 刘洋 从业资格： F3063825 交易咨询资格：Z0016580 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【行情复盘】 | 上周五国债期货主力合约开盘多数持平，早盘冲高回落，午后窄幅波动，30 | 年期品 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 种跌幅较大，截至收盘 | 30 | 年期国债期货主力合约 | TL2603 | 下跌 | 0.23%，10 | 年期 | T ...

研究员： 纪晓云 从业资格： F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 Morning session notice 联系方式：010-56711796 | | | 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 2 月 2 日星期一 | 黑色建材 | 铁矿 | 铁矿: 偏多 | 【行情复盘】 周五铁矿收涨。夜盘收跌。 【重要资讯】 1、本周，五大钢材品种供应 823.17 万吨，周环比增 3.58 万吨，增幅为 0.4%；总 库存 1278.51 万吨，周环比增 21.43 万吨，增幅为 1.7%；周度表观消费量为 801.74 万吨，环比降 1.0%。 2、1月 29日，新口径 114家钢厂进口烧结粉总库存 3328.65万吨，环比上期增 239.83 万吨。进口烧结粉总日耗 115.08 万吨，环比上期减 0.91 万吨。库存消费比 28.92， 环比上期增 2.29。 3、Mysteel 调研 247 家钢厂高炉开工率 79%，环比上周增加 0.32 个百分点，同比 去年增加 1.02 个百分点；高炉炼铁产能利用率 85.4 ...