煤焦数据快讯-2025年10月原煤产量数据 11月14日 2020-2025年中国原煤月度累计产量(亿吨) 2020-2025年中国原煤月度产量(亿吨) 47.6 5.00 50. 0 45.0 39.7 40. 0 4. 50 35.0 4. 12 4. 07 30. 0 4. 00 25.0 20. 0 15.0 3. 91 3.50 3.81 · 10. 0 5.0 3.00 0.0 2. 50 5月 7月 8月 11月 3月 4月 6月 9月 10月 12月 ■2023年 ■2024年 ■2025年 =2022年 =2021年 =2021年 2022年 2023年 ·2024年 -- 2025年 国家统计数据显示，10月原煤生产保持较高水平。10月份，规上工业原煤产量1.1亿吨。同比下降2.3%，日均产量1312万吨。1—10月份，规上工业原煤产 量39.7亿吨,同比增长1.5%。 格林大华0351团队点评：自7月反内卷政策公布以来，原煤产量同比保持下降。随着11月2025年度中央安全生产考核巡查正式工作启动，预计11-12月原媒 产量同比仍可能保持保持回落,能否完成年初国家能源局预定的48亿吨产量, ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of Shanghai silver has reached a new high, and silver inventories are continuously decreasing [2][42][48] - The U.S. government has resumed operation, and trillions of dollars in funds from the fiscal general account will flow into the market, equivalent to four interest rate cuts [4][43] - The U.S. employment boom is declining, and the number of corporate lay - offs in October has increased significantly compared to September and the same period last year [14] - China's commodity competitiveness has increased, and the U.S. import volume from China in August has increased by nearly 40% month - on - month [17] - The U.S. manufacturing industry is accelerating its return, and "re - industrialization" is speeding up [26] - U.S. consumption remains strong, as shown by the data of wholesalers' sales and retail and food sales [29][32] - The eurozone's manufacturing PMI remained flat in October, while the service industry PMI accelerated its expansion [35] - India's manufacturing and service industries have continued to expand for more than three years [37] - Japan's long - term government bond yields are on an upward trend [40] - The Shanghai Composite Index continues to consolidate at 4000 points, and stock index futures long positions should be mainly allocated to the CSI 300 Index and the SSE 50 Index for range trading [43][46] - London spot gold prices are higher than New York futures gold prices, and gold is moving towards physical shortage [57] - Copper prices are rising moderately due to AI infrastructure and power construction [59] Summary by Related Catalogs Global Economic Outlook - The U.S. government shutdown has ended, and trillions of dollars in funds from the Treasury general account will flow into the market [12] - NVIDIA CEO Huang Renxun believes that China will win the AI competition due to a more favorable regulatory environment and lower energy costs [12] - Huawei has announced "ten major inventions" including key technologies such as the Scale - up super - node computing platform [12] - Goldman Sachs CEO is optimistic about the stock markets in Hong Kong and the Chinese mainland, and many Chinese stocks seem "very attractive" [12] - Morgan Stanley predicts that there will be a 44 - gigawatt power gap in U.S. data centers by 2028 [12] - More companies report a slowdown in consumption, and the weakness has spread to the middle - income group [12] - In October, the total number of U.S. corporate lay - offs was 153,074, mainly driven by the technology and warehousing industries, an increase of 183% from September and almost three times that of the same period last year [12][14] - The U.S. employment boom is declining [14] - After the U.S. imposed reciprocal tariffs on various countries, China's commodity competitiveness increased, and the U.S. import volume from China in August increased by nearly 40% month - on - month [17] - The U.S. ISM services PMI in October was 52.4, continuing to expand [20] - In August, the U.S. manufacturing backlog of orders was at a record high, with a year - on - year increase of 7.1%, indicating high prosperity [23] - In August, the U.S. capital goods import amount was $91.9 billion, still at a high level, with a year - on - year growth rate of 10.5%, indicating that the U.S. manufacturing industry is accelerating its return [26] - In August, U.S. wholesalers' sales reached a record high of $711.3 billion, with a year - on - year increase of 6.2%, indicating strong consumption [29] - In August, the total U.S. retail and food sales increased by 0.6% month - on - month, exceeding expectations, indicating strong consumption [32] - The eurozone's manufacturing PMI remained flat in October, while the service industry PMI accelerated its expansion [35] - India's manufacturing and service industries in October continued to expand and have been expanding for more than three years [37] - Japan's long - term government bond yields are on an upward trend [40] Big - Asset Allocation - The U.S. government has resumed operation, and trillions of dollars in funds from the fiscal general account will flow into the market, equivalent to four interest rate cuts [43] - The Shanghai Composite Index has reached a new high again, insurance funds are continuously entering the market with an average monthly inflow of 150 billion yuan, the market style has temporarily shifted to high - dividend and bonus stocks, and the SSE 50 Index has strengthened [43][44] - The Shanghai Composite Index continues to consolidate at 4000 points, and stock index futures long positions should be mainly allocated to the CSI 300 Index and the SSE 50 Index for range trading [43][46] - The price of Shanghai silver has reached a new high, and silver inventories are continuously decreasing. The Shanghai Gold Exchange has only 822 tons left, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange has only 584 tons left [42][43][51] - London spot gold prices are higher than New York futures gold prices, and gold is moving towards physical shortage [57] - Copper prices are rising moderately due to AI infrastructure and power construction [59]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The Shanghai Composite Index is likely to continue consolidating around 4000 points, and there is a possibility of retesting the upper edge of the previous trading range by the end of the year [19]. - Amid the unclear outlook for the Fed's interest rates, U.S. stocks are shifting from expensive growth stocks to more defensive sectors, intensifying the market style rotation [19]. - Consumption has become the main driving force for economic growth in the fourth quarter, while exports, manufacturing investment, infrastructure investment, and real estate investment are facing challenges [51][52]. Summary by Related Catalogs Policy and Industry Trends - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology plans to accelerate the cultivation of application scenarios in five key areas, including "5G+", "Artificial Intelligence+", "Robot+", "Industrial Internet+", and "Beidou+" [6][7]. - XPeng Motors launched a hyper - anthropomorphic robot named IRON on November 5th [16]. Market Conditions - The Shanghai Composite Index reached a new high on Thursday (hourly chart) and fell below 4000 points again on Friday [11]. - Insurance funds are continuously flowing into the market, with an average monthly inflow of 150 billion yuan. The market style has temporarily shifted towards high - dividend and high - yield stocks, and the SSE 50 Index is strong [14]. - The NASDAQ Composite Index tumbled due to mixed signals on interest rate cuts and overvalued technology stocks, and U.S. stocks have turned defensive [8]. Macroeconomic Data - In October, the year - on - year growth rate of core CPI was 1.2%, the real interest rate turned negative, and the month - on - month growth rate of PPI was positive [21]. - In October, the year - on - year growth rate of M1 was 6.2%, and that of M2 was 8.2% [24]. - In October, non - bank financial institutions had an additional RMB deposit of 1.85 trillion yuan, indicating a continued shift of household savings to the stock market [27]. - In October, household loans decreased by 36.04 billion yuan month - on - month, and corporate medium - and long - term loans had almost zero growth [30]. - The balance of margin trading in the two markets remained stable at around 2.5 trillion yuan, and 2.3 million new A - share accounts were opened in October [33]. Economic Indicators - In October, China's export value was 305.3 billion US dollars, with a year - on - year growth rate of - 1.1%, indicating a slowdown in exports [36]. - In October, the export value of mechanical and electrical products was 190.3 billion US dollars, with a year - on - year growth rate of 1.2%, showing a significant slowdown [39]. - In October, the monthly value of fixed - asset investment in the manufacturing industry was 2.78 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth rate of - 6.6%, indicating a slowdown in manufacturing investment [42]. - In October, the monthly value of infrastructure investment was 2.08 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth rate of - 12.1%, reflecting the financial difficulties of local governments [45]. - In October, the year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment was - 23.2%, and the monthly value of newly started housing area reached a new low [48]. - In October, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 4.62 trillion yuan, a record high, with a year - on - year growth rate of 2.9% [51]. - In October, the monthly power generation was 800.2 billion kWh, with a year - on - year growth rate of 9.4%, a two - year high [55]. - In October, the monthly output of industrial robots was 57,858 units, with a year - on - year growth rate of 13.6% [58]. - In October, the monthly output of integrated circuits was 5.94 billion pieces, with a year - on - year growth rate of 16.5% [61]. Trading Strategies - For futures trading, long positions in stock index futures should be mainly allocated to the CSI 300 Index and the SSE 50 Index, with range - bound trading [19][64]. - Since the stock index is in a large - scale trading range, investors should take a cautious approach towards long - dated deep - out - of - the - money call options on the stock index [20][66].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - In October, the growth rates of fixed - asset investment and exports were lower than market expectations, while the growth of total retail sales of consumer goods slightly exceeded expectations. The year - on - year actual growth of added value of large - scale industries was lower than expected, and the year - on - year growth rate of the service industry production index declined compared with September. Domestic real estate sales volume and housing prices continued to decline year - on - year in October, and the data in early November also showed the same trend. As of the end of October, 500 billion yuan of new policy - based financial instruments had been fully invested, but their effectiveness was not obvious in October's investment data. The physical work volume may be more reflected in the remaining two months of this year and the first quarter of next year. After the China - US economic and trade teams reached a consensus in Kuala Lumpur at the end of October, the decline in the growth rate of exports to the US in the remaining two months of this year will probably slow down, and exports to the US will recover next year [4][18]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fixed - Asset Investment - From January to October, the national fixed - asset investment decreased by 1.7% year - on - year, lower than the market expectation of a 0.7% decline. General infrastructure investment (including electricity) increased by 1.5% year - on - year, lower than the market expectation of 2.8%. Narrow - sense infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) decreased by 0.1% year - on - year. Manufacturing investment increased by 2.7% year - on - year, lower than the market expectation of 3.4%. Real estate development investment decreased by 14.7% year - on - year. Private fixed - asset investment decreased by 4.5% year - on - year. In October, manufacturing investment decreased by 6.7% year - on - year, and narrow - sense infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) decreased by 8.9% year - on - year. The national fixed - asset investment decreased by 1.62% month - on - month [1][5]. 3.2 Real Estate - From January to October, the sales area of newly built commercial housing decreased by 6.8% year - on - year, and the sales volume decreased by 9.6% year - on - year. In October, the year - on - year decline in the sales area and sales volume of new homes nationwide widened significantly. The average daily transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities decreased year - on - year in each quarter, and the decline in October and November expanded. The prices of second - hand residential properties in first - tier, second - tier, and third - tier cities continued to bottom out. In October, the funds in place for real estate development enterprises decreased by 21.4% year - on - year. The new construction area of houses decreased by 29% year - on - year, and the completed area decreased by 28% year - on - year [7][9][10]. 3.3 Industrial Added Value - In October, the actual year - on - year growth of added value of large - scale industries was 4.9%, lower than the market expectation of 5.5%. High - tech manufacturing continued to maintain relatively fast growth. The product sales rate of large - scale industrial enterprises was 96.4%, 0.9 percentage points lower year - on - year [2][11]. 3.4 Foreign Trade - In October, China's export amount in US dollars decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, lower than the expected growth of 3.2%. Imports increased by 1.0% year - on - year, lower than the expected growth of 4.1%. In the first 10 months, the overall export growth rate was 5.3%, exceeding the 5.2% of the same period last year, thanks to export diversification. In the remaining two months of this year, China's exports may have single - digit growth year - on - year [2][12]. 3.5 Consumption - In October, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 2.9% year - on - year, slightly exceeding market expectations. By consumption type, commodity retail sales increased by 2.8% year - on - year, and catering revenue increased by 3.8% year - on - year. Among the retail sales of commodities of units above the designated size, categories such as gold and silver jewelry, communication equipment, and cultural office supplies had relatively fast year - on - year growth, while categories such as household appliances and audio - visual equipment, construction and decoration materials, and automobiles had year - on - year declines [3][14][15]. 3.6 Service Industry and Unemployment - In October, the national service industry production index increased by 4.6% year - on - year, reaching a new low this year. From January to October, it increased by 5.7% year - on - year. The national urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.1%, 0.1 percentage points lower than the previous month and 0.1 percentage points higher than the same period last year [17].

格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 11 月 14 日星期五 研究员：李方磊 从业资格：F03104461 交易咨询资格：Z0021311 联系方式：19339940612 Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 dddddddddddd | | | | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 昨日 SR601 合约收盘价 5512 元/吨，日涨幅 0.62%。夜盘收于 5498 元/吨；SR605 | | | | | 合约收盘价 5433 元/吨，日涨幅 0.41%。夜盘收于 5426 元/吨。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1.昨日 ICE 原糖主力合约收盘价 14.43 美分/磅，日跌幅 0.96%。 | | | | | 2.据印度报业托拉斯（PTI）报道，食品部长普拉哈德・乔希表示，中央政府已决定 | | | | | 允许 2025/26 榨季出口食糖 150 万吨，低于业内人士此前要求的 200 万吨 ...

Report Summary 1. Core Views - The global economy is entering the top region due to the continuous wrong policies of the United States [2] - The US investment - grade bond issuance scale has exceeded last year's $1.496 trillion, and the global bond issuance scale has exceeded $6 trillion for the first time this year [1] - The US sub - prime borrower auto - loan delinquency rate has reached a record high, and consumer spending is slowing down [1][2] 2. Key Information by Category Macroeconomic and Financial Information - **Gold Market**: Citigroup's latest gold outlook report predicts that the gold price may reach $6000 in a specific scenario, and US investors are the main force driving the gold price increase. In 2025, the net inflow of US gold ETFs accounts for 60.9% of the global total [1] - **Federal Reserve Policy**: New York Fed President Williams said that the Fed will assess when reserves are sufficient and then start gradually buying assets to maintain sufficient reserves [1] - **US Data Center Power Demand**: Morgan Stanley's report shows that the power demand of US data centers is rising sharply, and there will be a 44 - gigawatt power gap by 2028, equivalent to the power generation of 44 nuclear power plants [1][2] - **AI Infrastructure Investment**: Anthropic plans to invest $50 billion in AI infrastructure in the US, and Microsoft's first "AI super - factory" has been put into operation [1] - **Oil Market**: OPEC's November report shows that the oil market will be slightly oversupplied in 2026 [1] - **Bond Market**: The issuance scale of US investment - grade bonds has exceeded last year, and the global bond issuance scale has reached over $6 trillion this year [1] - **Auto - loan Delinquency**: As of October, the proportion of US sub - prime borrower auto - loans overdue for more than 60 days reached 6.65%, the highest since 1994 [1] Global Economic Logic - **US Government**: The US Senate passed a temporary appropriation bill to end the government shutdown [2] - **AI Competition**: NVIDIA CEO Huang Renxun believes that China will win the AI competition due to a more favorable regulatory environment and lower energy costs [2] - **Huawei's Achievements**: Huawei announced "ten major inventions", demonstrating its strength in computing power infrastructure and storage [2] - **Stock Market Outlook**: Goldman Sachs CEO is optimistic about the stock markets in Hong Kong and the Chinese mainland [2] - **AI Data Center Investment**: Morgan Stanley estimates that the construction boom of AI data centers will require at least $5 trillion in the next five years [2] - **Labor Shortage**: There is a shortage of plumbers, HVAC contractors, mechanics, and electricians in the construction of US data centers [2] - **Consumer Spending**: US household excess savings accumulated during the pandemic have been basically exhausted, and consumer spending is slowing down, especially among middle - income groups [2] - **Corporate Layoffs**: In October, the total number of US corporate layoffs was 153,074, mainly in the technology and warehousing industries, an increase of 183% from September and almost three times that of the same period last year [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the energy and chemical sector (specifically for bottle chips) is "Oscillating Weakly" [1] Group 2: Report's Core View - The price of bottle chips has declined, with the main contract price dropping by 48 yuan to 5664 yuan/ton, and prices in East China and South China also falling. The short - term price of bottle chips will oscillate, with the main contract reference range between 5600 - 5780 yuan/ton, and the recommended trading strategy is to wait and see [1] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Market Review - On Wednesday, the main price of bottle chips fell 48 yuan to 5664 yuan/ton. The price of East China water - grade bottle chips dropped 10 yuan to 5750 yuan/ton, and the price of South China bottle chips fell 30 yuan to 5770 yuan/ton. Long - position holdings increased by 175 lots to 58,400 lots, and short - position holdings increased by 1024 lots to 58,200 lots [1] Important Information - In terms of supply, cost, and profit, the domestic polyester bottle chip production was 341,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6800 tons. The average weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic polyester bottle chips was 74.8%, a week - on - week increase of 1.49%. The production cost of polyester bottle chips was 5234 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 33 yuan/ton, and the weekly production gross profit was - 119 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 15 yuan/ton [1] - In September 2025, China's polyester bottle chip exports were 467,700 tons, a decrease of 53,000 tons from the previous month. The cumulative export volume in 2025 was 4.8091 million tons [1] - The market expects the end of the US government shutdown, which boosts demand expectations. Coupled with the instability of the geopolitical situation, international oil prices have risen. The NYMEX crude oil futures December contract rose 0.91 dollars/barrel to 61.04 dollars/barrel, a week - on - week increase of 1.51%. The ICE Brent crude oil futures January contract rose 1.10 dollars/barrel to 65.16 dollars/barrel, a week - on - week increase of 1.72%. The China INE crude oil futures 2601 contract fell 0.8 yuan to 461.8 yuan/ton, and rose 9.3 yuan to 471.1 yuan/ton at night [1] - The Federal Reserve cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.75% - 4.00%, the second consecutive meeting to cut interest rates, which is in line with market expectations and the fifth interest rate cut since September 2024 [1] Market Logic - This week, the supply of bottle chips has changed little. Downstream factories mainly make rigid restocking, and the market is cautious about the later demand expectations. The export volume of bottle chips in September decreased month - on - month. Affected by the news of the anti - involution meeting in the chemical fiber polyester industry, the price has risen, and the market is waiting for the details of the anti - involution policy to be implemented. The fundamentals may limit the upward space [1] Trading Strategy - The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see [1]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - There is no specific report industry investment rating provided in the content. Group 2: Core Views - The main indexes of the two stock markets fluctuated widely on Wednesday, with the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index showing the strongest performance. The insurance industry's premiums increased by about 520 billion yuan from January to September, and according to the mid - to long - term funds' entry plan, it can bring a net capital increment of 150 billion yuan to the stock market per month on average. The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy. The Shanghai Composite Index continues to consolidate around 4000 points, and the slow - bull market continues. The long positions of stock index futures should be mainly allocated to the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index and the CSI 300 Index for range trading [1][2][3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - On Wednesday, the main indexes of the two stock markets fluctuated widely, rising, falling, and then rising again. The Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index was the strongest. The total trading volume of the two markets was 1.94 trillion yuan, with little change. The CSI 300 Index closed at 4645, down 6 points (-0.13%); the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index closed at 3044 points, up 9 points (0.32%); the CSI 500 Index closed at 7243 points, down 48 points (-0.66%); the CSI 1000 Index closed at 7486 points, down 54 points (-0.72%). Among industry and theme ETFs, those related to innovative drugs led the gains, while those related to new energy and photovoltaic led the losses. Among the sector indexes of the two markets, oil service engineering, insurance, etc. led the gains, and photovoltaic equipment, cultivated diamonds, etc. led the losses. The settled funds of stock index futures for the CSI 1000, CSI 500, CSI 300, and Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Indexes had net inflows of 7.6 billion, 7.2 billion, 3.4 billion, and 0.6 billion yuan respectively [1]. Important Information - The central bank's "2025 Q3 China Monetary Policy Implementation Report" states that the current RMB loan balance in China has reached 270 trillion yuan, and the stock of social financing scale has reached 437 trillion yuan. As the base grows, the future decline in financial aggregate growth is natural, consistent with the shift from high - speed to high - quality economic development. The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy, keep social financing conditions relatively loose, strengthen financial support for boosting and expanding consumption, expand financial supply in the consumption field, and study and implement policies to support individuals in repairing their credit. The Fed's interest rate cut provides room for other major central banks to loosen policies, and most emerging market countries have greater room for interest rate cuts, supporting the potential returns of emerging market stocks and local currency bonds. As of November 11, the number of newly issued public funds this year reached 1371, surpassing the full - year figures of 2023 (1266) and 2024 (1143), and is close to the 2022 figure of 1424. Huawei announced its "Top Ten Inventions" achievements. SoftBank sold all its NVIDIA shares in October, cashing out $5.8 billion, and fully invested an additional $22.5 billion in OpenAI's second - round financing. AMD aims to capture a "double - digit" share in the data - center AI chip market dominated by NVIDIA in the next three to five years and achieve $100 billion in revenue in five years, with an average annual revenue growth rate of over 35% and the AI data - center business growing at a rate of up to 80%. Microsoft will invest $10 billion in building an AI data center in Portugal. Google plans to invest about $6.4 billion in Germany's computing resources and operations in the next four years. Tech giants are using off - balance - sheet financing to fund the AI arms race. The global tech bond issuance wave is spreading from the US to the world, with the US investment - grade tech bond issuance surging 115% to $211 billion. Barclays downgraded Oracle's debt rating to "underweight" due to its high debt - to - equity ratio of 500%. Non - official data shows that US inflation may have cooled sharply in October due to a 0.31% month - on - month decline in housing rent [1][2]. Market Logic - The main indexes of the two stock markets fluctuated widely on Wednesday, with the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index being the strongest. The insurance industry's premiums increased by about 520 billion yuan from January to September, and it can bring a net capital increment of 150 billion yuan to the stock market per month on average. The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy. Huawei announced its "Top Ten Inventions" achievements. The total capacity of data - center projects in the US under planning or construction exceeds 45 gigawatts, with an expected total investment of over $2.5 trillion. NVIDIA's CEO believes China will win the AI competition. Goldman Sachs' CEO is optimistic about the stock markets in Hong Kong and the Chinese mainland [1][2][3] Future Outlook - The main indexes of the two stock markets fluctuated widely on Wednesday, with the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index being the strongest. The Ministry of Science and Technology will strengthen the dominant position of enterprises in technological innovation. NVIDIA's CEO believes China will win the AI competition. Morgan Stanley reports that AI applications are moving from the conceptual to the practical stage. Goldman Sachs points out that the structural shift of Chinese capital into stocks may have begun, and China has re - entered the view of overseas investors. A stable stock market can inject more capital into the real economy and boost consumption. The insurance industry's premiums can bring a net capital increment to the stock market. The Shanghai Composite Index continues to consolidate around 4000 points, and the slow - bull market continues. Stock index futures long positions should be mainly allocated to the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index and the CSI 300 Index for range trading [1][2][3] Trading Strategies - Stock index futures directional trading: Insurance funds continue to enter the market, strengthening the high - dividend and high - yield style. The Shanghai Composite Index continues to consolidate around 4000 points, and the slow - bull market continues. Stock index futures long positions should be mainly allocated to the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index and the CSI 300 Index for range trading [3] - Stock index option trading: The stock index is in a large - scale oscillation range. For long - term deep - out - of - the - money call options of the stock index, it is advisable to observe more and trade less [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for coking coal and coke in the black sector is "Bearish and volatile" [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The coking coal market experienced a significant correction yesterday. The near - month contracts dropped by over 3%, and the far - month contracts declined by nearly 2%. The National Development and Reform Commission emphasized energy supply guarantee, which boosted coal supply and led to a bearish market sentiment. Although the spot auction prices remained strong, the short - term futures market is expected to decline due to sentiment. The coking coal should be viewed bearishly in the short term [1] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Market Review - Yesterday, the coking coal main contract Jm2601 closed at 1213.0, down 4.5% from the daytime session opening. The coke main contract J2601 closed at 1685.0, down 3.36% from the daytime session opening. In the night session, Jm2601 closed at 1216.5, up 0.29% from the daytime session close, and J2601 closed at 1691.5, up 0.39% from the daytime session close [1] 2. Important Information - The US announced a suspension of the export - control penetration rule from November 10, 2025, to November 9, 2026. The Chinese Ministry of Commerce responded that this is an important measure for the US to implement the consensus of the China - US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur. The arrangement after the one - year suspension will be further discussed [1] - The deputy director of the Investment Department of the National Development and Reform Commission said that the commission has recommended 18 private investment projects to the CSRC, 14 of which have been issued and listed, with a total fund - raising of nearly 30 billion yuan. A total of 105 infrastructure REITs projects have been recommended, and 83 have been issued and listed [1] - Henan Energy Group and Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Group signed a strategic restructuring framework agreement on November 7. Henan Energy Group will become a wholly - owned subsidiary of Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Group [1] - From January to October this year, the production and sales of new - energy vehicles reached 13.015 million and 12.943 million respectively, up 33.1% and 32.7% year - on - year. In October, the monthly sales of new - energy vehicles exceeded 50% of the total new - vehicle sales for the first time [1] 3. Market Logic - The coking coal market corrected significantly yesterday. The National Development and Reform Commission's emphasis on energy supply guarantee boosted coal supply and led to a bearish market sentiment. Although the spot auction prices were strong, the short - term futures market is expected to decline due to sentiment [1] 4. Trading Strategy - Pay attention to the support level below 1200 for the coking coal main contract. View it bearishly in the short term [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. Core View of the Report - The Tuesday decline of the major indices in the two markets was a normal technical correction, and after 14:00, the decline stopped and the market consolidated. The subsequent market is expected to oscillate and rise, continuing the slow - bull trend. The main index futures should be long - positioned with the CSI 300 index as the main focus, and conduct range trading. For index options, in the large - scale oscillation range, it is advisable to observe rather than act rashly on the far - month deep - out - of - the - money call options [1][3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Tuesday, the major indices in the two markets oscillated and declined, with a trading volume of 1.99 trillion yuan, showing a decline in volume during the correction. The CSI 300 index closed at 4652, down 42 points or - 0.91%; the SSE 50 index closed at 3034, down 19 points or - 0.63%; the CSI 500 index closed at 7291, down 52 points or - 0.71%; the CSI 1000 index closed at 7540, down 22 points or - 0.30%. Among industry and theme ETFs, the top gainers were the Science and Technology Innovation New Energy ETF, etc., and the top losers were the Communication ETF, etc. Among the sector indices in the two markets, the top gainers were the Cultured Diamond index, etc., and the top losers were the Consumer Electronics index, etc. The CSI 500, CSI 300, CSI 1000, and SSE 50 index futures saw net outflows of 35, 25, 7, and 5 billion yuan respectively in the settled funds [1]. Important Information - The State Council Information Office held a regular policy briefing, releasing a strong signal of "promoting innovation through scenarios and stimulating vitality through openness". A special action implementation plan for "AI + manufacturing" will be introduced, and the "Robot +" application action will be deeply implemented. The Ministry of Science and Technology will strengthen the dominant position of enterprises in technological innovation. Overseas asset management institutions are optimistic about China, but large - scale capital inflows still need time. The "Guidance on Promoting New Energy Consumption and Regulation" was released, aiming to basically establish a multi - level new energy consumption and regulation system by 2030. The Chinese Academy of Sciences made important progress in perovskite solar cells. Analysts estimated that there will be a huge capital gap in the construction of AI data centers in the next five years. Goldman Sachs believes that the current corporate leverage ratio is not high, and the credit spread is narrow. The correlation between the S&P 500 index and NVIDIA is higher than that with the equal - weighted index of its 500 constituent companies. The silver reserves in the London vault increased significantly in October, ending the "silver squeeze" stage. BlackRock's private debt investment in a home improvement company was re - valued at zero. Trump's "tariff rebate" plan may cost up to $600 billion, which may lead to inflation [1][2]. Market Logic - The market decline on Tuesday was a normal technical correction. The policy briefing released a positive signal, and companies such as Alibaba are increasing investment in AI infrastructure. The US is planning or building large - scale data centers, and NVIDIA's CEO is optimistic about China's AI development. Goldman Sachs is optimistic about the stock markets in Hong Kong and the Chinese mainland [2][3]. Future Outlook - The major indices in the two markets are expected to oscillate and rise, continuing the slow - bull trend. The 4000 - point level of the Shanghai Composite Index has become an important support, and it is expected to reach new highs in the oscillation. The shift of Chinese capital to stocks may have started, and China has re - entered the vision of overseas investors. Stable stock markets can boost consumption and strengthen the internal economic cycle [3]. Trading Strategy - For index futures directional trading, long - position the index futures mainly with the CSI 300 index and conduct range trading. For index option trading, when the index is in a large - scale oscillation range, observe rather than act rashly on the far - month deep - out - of - the - money call options [3].