1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - As of November 15th, the coking coal inventory at the Ganqimao Port was 280.68 tons, showing a slight inventory build - up of 13 tons compared to the previous week and a reduction of 81 tons compared to after the National Day holiday [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalog Inventory Data - A table shows the inventory and its month - on - month changes from August 8, 2025, to November 15, 2025, at the Ganqimao Port. For example, on August 16, 2025, the inventory was 267 tons with a month - on - month decrease of 7 tons; on November 15, 2025, the inventory was 281 tons with a month - on - month increase of 13 tons [6]

格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 11 月 17 日星期一 研究员：吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 周五夜盘盘甲醇主力合约期货价格下跌 46 元至 2035 元/吨，华东主流地区甲醇现货 价格下跌 25 元至 2047 元/吨。持仓方面，多头持仓增加 67929 手至 85.34 万手，空 头持仓增加 104211 手至 111.94 万手。 【重要资讯】 1、供应方面，国内甲醇开工率 87%，环比-0.65%。海外甲醇开工率 73.5%，环比+1.5%。 2、库存方面，中国甲醇港口库存总量在 154.36 万吨，增加 5.65 万吨。其中，华东 | | | | | 地区累库，库存增加 6.49 万吨；华南地区去库，库存减少 0.84 万吨。中国甲醇样 | | | | | 本生产企 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for treasury bonds is "oscillation" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - China's October fixed - asset investment and export growth rates are lower than market expectations, social consumption growth slightly exceeds expectations, industrial added - value growth is lower than expected, and the real estate market continues to decline. The new social financing and credit scale in October are also lower than expected. Treasury bond futures are expected to continue to oscillate in the short - term, and the impact of stock indexes should be continuously monitored. Trading - type investors are advised to conduct band operations [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Friday, most of the main contracts of treasury bond futures opened slightly higher. After a slight decline in the morning session, they fluctuated narrowly. They once declined in the afternoon and recovered at the end. As of the close, the 30 - year treasury bond futures main contract TL2512 rose 0.03%, the 10 - year T2512 remained flat, the 5 - year TF2512 remained flat, and the 2 - year TS2512 fell 0.01% [1] 3.2 Important Information - **Open Market**: On Friday, the central bank conducted 212.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 141.7 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, resulting in a net investment of 71.1 billion yuan [1] - **Funds Market**: On Friday, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank funds market rose compared with the previous trading day. The weighted average of DR001 for the whole day was 1.37% (1.32% the previous day), and the weighted average of DR007 for the whole day was 1.47% (1.48% the previous day) [1] - **Cash Bond Market**: On Friday, the closing yields of inter - bank treasury bonds fluctuated narrowly compared with the previous trading day. The 2 - year treasury bond yield rose 0.32 BP to 1.43%, the 5 - year rose 0.33 BP to 1.58%, the 10 - year rose 0.14 BP to 1.81%, and the 30 - year fell 0.10 BP to 2.15% [1] - **Housing Market**: In October, the second - hand housing sales prices in first - tier cities decreased by 0.9% month - on - month, with the decline narrowing by 0.1 percentage points. In second - tier cities, they decreased by 0.6% month - on - month, with the decline narrowing by 0.1 percentage points. In third - tier cities, they decreased by 0.7% month - on - month, with the decline expanding by 0.1 percentage points [1] - **Investment and Consumption Data**: From January to October, the national fixed - asset investment decreased by 1.7% year - on - year (market expectation: - 0.7%, January - September: - 0.5%). In October, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 4.9% year - on - year (market expectation: 5.5%, September: 6.5%), and the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 2.9% year - on - year (market expectation: 2.7%, September: 3.0%). The national urban surveyed unemployment rate in October was 5.1%, 0.1 percentage points lower than the previous month and 0.1 percentage points higher than the same month last year [1][2] - **Policy Information**: On November 14, the State Council Executive Meeting was held to study the in - depth implementation of the "two major" construction, emphasizing strategic, forward - looking, and overall requirements, promoting the development of new - quality productivity, and guiding more private capital participation [2] 3.3 Market Logic - China's October fixed - asset investment and export growth rates are lower than market expectations, social consumption growth slightly exceeds expectations, industrial added - value growth is lower than expected, and the real estate market continues to decline. The new social financing and credit scale in October are also lower than expected. The central bank's third - quarter monetary policy implementation report points out to optimize intermediate variables and pay attention to interest rate parity relationships. The Wande All - A index fell 1.27% on Friday, and treasury bond futures fluctuated horizontally and basically closed flat. Treasury bond futures may continue to oscillate in the short - term, and the impact of stock indexes should be monitored [2] 3.4 Trading Strategy - Trading - type investors are advised to conduct band operations [2]

Morning session notice | | | | 钢材: | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 周五螺纹热卷收涨。夜盘继续收涨。 | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1、央行陶玲：约束金融行业"内卷式竞争"，保持合理的盈利空间。 | 2、国家统计局：要继续扩大国内需求、优化市场竞争环境等促进物价合理回升。 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 3、国家统计局：10 | 月中国汽车产量 | 327.9 | 万辆，同比增 | 11.2%。 | 4、 | 1-10 | 月份，全国房地产开发投资 | 73563 | 亿元，同比下降 | 14.7%。 | | | | | | | 5、2025 | 年 | 10 | 月，中国粗钢产量 | 7200 | 万吨，同比下降 | 12.1%；生铁产量 | 655 ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 重要事项: 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料，格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 2025 年 11 月 17 日星期一 研究员：纪晓云 从业资格：F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 上周焦煤主力合约收报 1192.0 元/吨，跌破 1200 元关口，周跌幅达 5.77%；焦炭主力合 | | | | | 约收报 1669.5 元/吨，周跌幅为 5.06 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Domestic vegetable oil prices are expected to be bullish, with rapeseed oil being the strongest, soybean oil being cautiously bullish, and palm oil oscillating at the bottom. For two - meal products, look for new buying points during the decline, with soybean meal waiting for a pullback and rapeseed meal having limited room for further decline [1][2][3] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Vegetable Oil Section 3.1.1 Market Review - On November 14, before the release of the US Department of Agriculture report, the vegetable oil market was under pressure. The closing prices of the main contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil all decreased compared to the previous day, with varying degrees of position changes [1] 3.1.2 Important Information - NYMEX crude oil futures rose over 2% on November 14 due to supply concerns. The US EPA approved some small refinery exemption applications. Brazil may not raise the biodiesel blending ratio from 15% to 16% by March 2026. MPOB's October palm oil data showed increased production, exports, and inventory. Malaysia's palm oil exports from November 1 - 15 decreased by 15.5% compared to the same period in October. As of the 45th week of 2025, the total domestic inventory of the three major edible oils decreased by 6.01% week - on - week [1][2] 3.1.3 Market Logic - Externally, the US soybean supply - demand report was bullish, and the Malaysian palm oil market was in a vacuum. Domestically, soybean oil followed the upward trend but had limited upside. Palm oil was weak, and rapeseed oil's short - term sharp rise might face a callback risk. The overall vegetable oil market was divided [2] 3.1.4 Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Do not chase high for rapeseed oil, hold soybean oil long positions cautiously, and do not short palm oil. Provide support and resistance levels for each contract [2] - Arbitrage: None 3.2 Two - Meal Section 3.2.1 Market Review - On November 14, before the release of the US Department of Agriculture report, the protein sector was led by soybean meal. The main contract of soybean meal rose, while the main and secondary contracts of rapeseed meal declined [2][3] 3.2.2 Important Information - The US Department of Agriculture's November supply - demand report showed a decrease in US soybean yield and production forecasts. China resumed the soybean import licenses of three US companies. Brazilian soybean planting progress was 61% as of November 10. StoneX predicted an increase in Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production. Brazil's soybean exports in October were higher than last year. There were rumors of China's purchase of Australian rapeseed. As of the 45th week of 2025, domestic imported soybean inventory increased, while domestic soybean meal inventory decreased [2][3] 3.2.3 Market Logic - Externally, the US soybean supply - demand report was bullish, but then the market was under pressure. Domestically, the supply of soybeans was sufficient, and the downstream demand was weak. Rapeseed meal had limited room for further decline due to zero raw material inventory [3] 3.2.4 Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Buy long positions in the far - month 2605 contract of soybean meal, close short positions in rapeseed meal, and look for new buying points during the decline. Provide support and resistance levels for each contract [3] - Arbitrage: None

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料，格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 格林大华期货研究院所有 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 11 月 17 日 星期一 研究员： 于军礼 从业资格： F0247894 交易咨询资格：Z0000112 | 勋称：中国将赢得人工智能竞赛，他将中国的潜在胜利归功于更有利的监管环境和 | | --- | | 更低的能源成本。华为公布"十大发明"成果，Scale-up 超节点算力平台、新一代超 | | 高容量 SSD 存储、短距光互联 ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 11 月 17 日 星期一 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 受外部市场下跌影响，周五两市主要指数低开走弱，油气板块走强。两市成交额 1.95 万亿元，稍有缩量。沪深 300 指数收 4628，跌 73 点，跌幅-1.57%；上证 50 指数收 | | | | | 3038 点，跌 35 点，跌幅-1.15%；中证 500 指数收 7235 点，跌 119 点，跌幅-1.63%； | | | | | 中证 1000 指数收 7502 点，跌 87 点，跌幅-1.16%。行业与主题 ETF 中涨幅居前的 | | | | | 是油气资源 ETF、科创板新能源 ETF、石油天然气 ETF、中药 ETF、石油 ETF，跌幅 | | | | | 居前的是中韩半导体 ETF、创业板人工智能 ETF 国泰、信创 ETF 易方达。两市板块 | | | | | 指数中 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The theme of stabilizing growth remains the main line for the macro - economy in the fourth quarter. The short - term treasury bond futures may continue to fluctuate, and the impact of the stock index should be continuously monitored. Investors are advised to consider moderately buying on dips and conduct trading - type investment in a band - trading manner [44][45]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Treasury Bond Futures Market Review - This week, the main contract of treasury bond futures showed a narrow - range horizontal fluctuation. The 30 - year treasury bond closed up 0.11% for the week, while the 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year treasury bonds fell 0.06%, 0.04%, and 0.02% respectively [4]. - As of November 14, compared with November 7, the overall change in the yield - to - maturity curve of treasury bond cash bonds was small. The 2 - year treasury bond yield remained flat at 1.43%, the 5 - year yield dropped 1 BP to 1.58%, the 10 - year yield remained flat at 1.81%, and the 30 - year yield dropped 1 BP to 2.15% [7]. Macroeconomic Data - **Investment Data**: From January to October, the national fixed - asset investment decreased by 1.7% year - on - year (market expectation: - 0.7%, - 0.5% in January - September). General infrastructure investment (including electricity) increased by 1.5% year - on - year (market expectation: 2.8%, 3.3% in January - September, 9.2% in 2024). Narrow infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) decreased by 0.1% year - on - year (1.1% in January - September, 4.4% in 2024). Manufacturing investment increased by 2.7% year - on - year (market expectation: 3.4%, 4.0% in January - September, 9.2% in 2024). Real estate development investment decreased by 14.7% year - on - year (market expectation: - 14.5%, - 13.9% in January - September, - 10.6% in 2024) [10]. - **Real Estate Data**: From January to October, the sales area of new commercial housing was 71,982 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 6.8% (- 5.5% in January - September, - 12.9% in 2024); the sales volume was 6,901.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 9.6% (- 7.9% in January - September, - 17.1% in 2024). In October, the year - on - year decline in the sales area and volume of new homes nationwide widened significantly. In October, among 70 large and medium - sized cities, the second - hand housing prices in first - tier cities decreased by 0.9% month - on - month (the decline narrowed by 0.1 percentage points), second - tier cities decreased by 0.6% (the decline narrowed by 0.1 percentage points), and third - tier cities decreased by 0.7% (the decline widened by 0.1 percentage points) [13][16]. - **Consumption Data**: In October, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 4,629.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.9% (market expectation: 2.7%, 3.0% in September). From January to October, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.3% (4.5% in January - September, 3.5% last year). From January to October, service retail sales increased by 5.3% year - on - year [19][21]. - **Service Industry Data**: In October, the national service industry production index increased by 4.6% year - on - year (a new low for the year, 5.6% in September). From January to October, it increased by 5.7% year - on - year (5.2% in 2024) [23]. - **Industrial Data**: In October, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 4.9% year - on - year (market expectation: 5.5%, 6.5% in September). From January to October, it increased by 6.1% year - on - year (5.8% in 2024) [26]. - **Employment Data**: In October, the national urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.1%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month and an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the same period last year [29]. Financial Data - **Social Financing Data**: In October, the social financing scale increased by 815 billion yuan (market expectation: 1.5 trillion yuan, 597 billion yuan less than the same period last year). The net financing of government bonds increased by 489.3 billion yuan (560.2 billion yuan less than the same period last year), and corporate bond net financing was 246.9 billion yuan (148.2 billion yuan more than the same period last year) [32]. - **Loan Data**: In October, RMB loans increased by 220 billion yuan (market expectation: 460 billion yuan, 280 billion yuan less than the same period last year). Corporate medium - and long - term loans increased by 30 billion yuan (140 billion yuan less than the same period last year), and corporate short - term loans decreased by 190 billion yuan [34]. - **Money Supply Data**: At the end of October, the balance of broad money (M2) was 335.13 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.2% (market expectation: 8.0%, 8.4% in September). The balance of narrow money (M1) was 112 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.2% (market expectation: 6.6%, 7.2% in September) [36]. - **Interest Rate Data**: This week, short - term capital interest rates rose. The weighted average of DR001 for the whole week was 1.42%, and the weighted average of DR007 was 1.49% (1.424% last week). The average issuance rate of one - year AAA inter - bank certificates of deposit remained stable at 1.636% (1.637% last week) [41].

证监许可【2011】1288号 报告 预计钢矿仍维持震荡走势 2025年11月14日 更多精彩内容 请关注 格林大华期货 官方微信 研究员：纪晓云 联系方式：010-56711796 期货从业资格证号：F3066027 期货交易咨询号：Z0011402 钢矿观点 前10月房地产投资增速继续下滑，房地产用钢指标——房屋新开工、施工和竣工指标继续下降。狭义基建 投资增速为-0.1%，2021年以来首次降为负值。制造业投资增速降为2.7%，为2021年以来的最低水平。前 10月粗钢产量同比下降，且降幅扩大。生铁产量同比下降1.8%，粗钢产量继续调控。本期螺纹供给继续下 降，库存持续去化。热卷供给增加，库存小幅下降。五大钢材产量和库存均下降，钢材需求淡季。本期铁 水日产236.88万吨，环比增加2.66万吨。预计大概率降至230万吨以下。钢厂盈利较低，主动性复产积极 性不足。钢厂盈利欠佳，成本端支撑较强。总体看，预计钢矿继续维持震荡区间。螺纹主力合约压力位 3230，支撑位3000。热卷压力位3450，支撑位3200。铁矿主力2601合约压力位833，支撑位750。 【交易策略】 维持钢矿短期震荡走势的判断。建议短线 ...