格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 11 月 14 日星期五 研究员：李方磊 从业资格：F03104461 交易咨询资格：Z0021311 联系方式：19339940612 Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 dddddddddddd | | | | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 昨日 SR601 合约收盘价 5512 元/吨，日涨幅 0.62%。夜盘收于 5498 元/吨；SR605 | | | | | 合约收盘价 5433 元/吨，日涨幅 0.41%。夜盘收于 5426 元/吨。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1.昨日 ICE 原糖主力合约收盘价 14.43 美分/磅，日跌幅 0.96%。 | | | | | 2.据印度报业托拉斯（PTI）报道，食品部长普拉哈德・乔希表示，中央政府已决定 | | | | | 允许 2025/26 榨季出口食糖 150 万吨，低于业内人士此前要求的 200 万吨 ...

Report Summary 1. Core Views - The global economy is entering the top region due to the continuous wrong policies of the United States [2] - The US investment - grade bond issuance scale has exceeded last year's $1.496 trillion, and the global bond issuance scale has exceeded $6 trillion for the first time this year [1] - The US sub - prime borrower auto - loan delinquency rate has reached a record high, and consumer spending is slowing down [1][2] 2. Key Information by Category Macroeconomic and Financial Information - **Gold Market**: Citigroup's latest gold outlook report predicts that the gold price may reach $6000 in a specific scenario, and US investors are the main force driving the gold price increase. In 2025, the net inflow of US gold ETFs accounts for 60.9% of the global total [1] - **Federal Reserve Policy**: New York Fed President Williams said that the Fed will assess when reserves are sufficient and then start gradually buying assets to maintain sufficient reserves [1] - **US Data Center Power Demand**: Morgan Stanley's report shows that the power demand of US data centers is rising sharply, and there will be a 44 - gigawatt power gap by 2028, equivalent to the power generation of 44 nuclear power plants [1][2] - **AI Infrastructure Investment**: Anthropic plans to invest $50 billion in AI infrastructure in the US, and Microsoft's first "AI super - factory" has been put into operation [1] - **Oil Market**: OPEC's November report shows that the oil market will be slightly oversupplied in 2026 [1] - **Bond Market**: The issuance scale of US investment - grade bonds has exceeded last year, and the global bond issuance scale has reached over $6 trillion this year [1] - **Auto - loan Delinquency**: As of October, the proportion of US sub - prime borrower auto - loans overdue for more than 60 days reached 6.65%, the highest since 1994 [1] Global Economic Logic - **US Government**: The US Senate passed a temporary appropriation bill to end the government shutdown [2] - **AI Competition**: NVIDIA CEO Huang Renxun believes that China will win the AI competition due to a more favorable regulatory environment and lower energy costs [2] - **Huawei's Achievements**: Huawei announced "ten major inventions", demonstrating its strength in computing power infrastructure and storage [2] - **Stock Market Outlook**: Goldman Sachs CEO is optimistic about the stock markets in Hong Kong and the Chinese mainland [2] - **AI Data Center Investment**: Morgan Stanley estimates that the construction boom of AI data centers will require at least $5 trillion in the next five years [2] - **Labor Shortage**: There is a shortage of plumbers, HVAC contractors, mechanics, and electricians in the construction of US data centers [2] - **Consumer Spending**: US household excess savings accumulated during the pandemic have been basically exhausted, and consumer spending is slowing down, especially among middle - income groups [2] - **Corporate Layoffs**: In October, the total number of US corporate layoffs was 153,074, mainly in the technology and warehousing industries, an increase of 183% from September and almost three times that of the same period last year [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the energy and chemical sector (specifically for bottle chips) is "Oscillating Weakly" [1] Group 2: Report's Core View - The price of bottle chips has declined, with the main contract price dropping by 48 yuan to 5664 yuan/ton, and prices in East China and South China also falling. The short - term price of bottle chips will oscillate, with the main contract reference range between 5600 - 5780 yuan/ton, and the recommended trading strategy is to wait and see [1] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Market Review - On Wednesday, the main price of bottle chips fell 48 yuan to 5664 yuan/ton. The price of East China water - grade bottle chips dropped 10 yuan to 5750 yuan/ton, and the price of South China bottle chips fell 30 yuan to 5770 yuan/ton. Long - position holdings increased by 175 lots to 58,400 lots, and short - position holdings increased by 1024 lots to 58,200 lots [1] Important Information - In terms of supply, cost, and profit, the domestic polyester bottle chip production was 341,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6800 tons. The average weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic polyester bottle chips was 74.8%, a week - on - week increase of 1.49%. The production cost of polyester bottle chips was 5234 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 33 yuan/ton, and the weekly production gross profit was - 119 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 15 yuan/ton [1] - In September 2025, China's polyester bottle chip exports were 467,700 tons, a decrease of 53,000 tons from the previous month. The cumulative export volume in 2025 was 4.8091 million tons [1] - The market expects the end of the US government shutdown, which boosts demand expectations. Coupled with the instability of the geopolitical situation, international oil prices have risen. The NYMEX crude oil futures December contract rose 0.91 dollars/barrel to 61.04 dollars/barrel, a week - on - week increase of 1.51%. The ICE Brent crude oil futures January contract rose 1.10 dollars/barrel to 65.16 dollars/barrel, a week - on - week increase of 1.72%. The China INE crude oil futures 2601 contract fell 0.8 yuan to 461.8 yuan/ton, and rose 9.3 yuan to 471.1 yuan/ton at night [1] - The Federal Reserve cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.75% - 4.00%, the second consecutive meeting to cut interest rates, which is in line with market expectations and the fifth interest rate cut since September 2024 [1] Market Logic - This week, the supply of bottle chips has changed little. Downstream factories mainly make rigid restocking, and the market is cautious about the later demand expectations. The export volume of bottle chips in September decreased month - on - month. Affected by the news of the anti - involution meeting in the chemical fiber polyester industry, the price has risen, and the market is waiting for the details of the anti - involution policy to be implemented. The fundamentals may limit the upward space [1] Trading Strategy - The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see [1]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - There is no specific report industry investment rating provided in the content. Group 2: Core Views - The main indexes of the two stock markets fluctuated widely on Wednesday, with the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index showing the strongest performance. The insurance industry's premiums increased by about 520 billion yuan from January to September, and according to the mid - to long - term funds' entry plan, it can bring a net capital increment of 150 billion yuan to the stock market per month on average. The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy. The Shanghai Composite Index continues to consolidate around 4000 points, and the slow - bull market continues. The long positions of stock index futures should be mainly allocated to the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index and the CSI 300 Index for range trading [1][2][3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - On Wednesday, the main indexes of the two stock markets fluctuated widely, rising, falling, and then rising again. The Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index was the strongest. The total trading volume of the two markets was 1.94 trillion yuan, with little change. The CSI 300 Index closed at 4645, down 6 points (-0.13%); the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index closed at 3044 points, up 9 points (0.32%); the CSI 500 Index closed at 7243 points, down 48 points (-0.66%); the CSI 1000 Index closed at 7486 points, down 54 points (-0.72%). Among industry and theme ETFs, those related to innovative drugs led the gains, while those related to new energy and photovoltaic led the losses. Among the sector indexes of the two markets, oil service engineering, insurance, etc. led the gains, and photovoltaic equipment, cultivated diamonds, etc. led the losses. The settled funds of stock index futures for the CSI 1000, CSI 500, CSI 300, and Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Indexes had net inflows of 7.6 billion, 7.2 billion, 3.4 billion, and 0.6 billion yuan respectively [1]. Important Information - The central bank's "2025 Q3 China Monetary Policy Implementation Report" states that the current RMB loan balance in China has reached 270 trillion yuan, and the stock of social financing scale has reached 437 trillion yuan. As the base grows, the future decline in financial aggregate growth is natural, consistent with the shift from high - speed to high - quality economic development. The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy, keep social financing conditions relatively loose, strengthen financial support for boosting and expanding consumption, expand financial supply in the consumption field, and study and implement policies to support individuals in repairing their credit. The Fed's interest rate cut provides room for other major central banks to loosen policies, and most emerging market countries have greater room for interest rate cuts, supporting the potential returns of emerging market stocks and local currency bonds. As of November 11, the number of newly issued public funds this year reached 1371, surpassing the full - year figures of 2023 (1266) and 2024 (1143), and is close to the 2022 figure of 1424. Huawei announced its "Top Ten Inventions" achievements. SoftBank sold all its NVIDIA shares in October, cashing out $5.8 billion, and fully invested an additional $22.5 billion in OpenAI's second - round financing. AMD aims to capture a "double - digit" share in the data - center AI chip market dominated by NVIDIA in the next three to five years and achieve $100 billion in revenue in five years, with an average annual revenue growth rate of over 35% and the AI data - center business growing at a rate of up to 80%. Microsoft will invest $10 billion in building an AI data center in Portugal. Google plans to invest about $6.4 billion in Germany's computing resources and operations in the next four years. Tech giants are using off - balance - sheet financing to fund the AI arms race. The global tech bond issuance wave is spreading from the US to the world, with the US investment - grade tech bond issuance surging 115% to $211 billion. Barclays downgraded Oracle's debt rating to "underweight" due to its high debt - to - equity ratio of 500%. Non - official data shows that US inflation may have cooled sharply in October due to a 0.31% month - on - month decline in housing rent [1][2]. Market Logic - The main indexes of the two stock markets fluctuated widely on Wednesday, with the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index being the strongest. The insurance industry's premiums increased by about 520 billion yuan from January to September, and it can bring a net capital increment of 150 billion yuan to the stock market per month on average. The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy. Huawei announced its "Top Ten Inventions" achievements. The total capacity of data - center projects in the US under planning or construction exceeds 45 gigawatts, with an expected total investment of over $2.5 trillion. NVIDIA's CEO believes China will win the AI competition. Goldman Sachs' CEO is optimistic about the stock markets in Hong Kong and the Chinese mainland [1][2][3] Future Outlook - The main indexes of the two stock markets fluctuated widely on Wednesday, with the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index being the strongest. The Ministry of Science and Technology will strengthen the dominant position of enterprises in technological innovation. NVIDIA's CEO believes China will win the AI competition. Morgan Stanley reports that AI applications are moving from the conceptual to the practical stage. Goldman Sachs points out that the structural shift of Chinese capital into stocks may have begun, and China has re - entered the view of overseas investors. A stable stock market can inject more capital into the real economy and boost consumption. The insurance industry's premiums can bring a net capital increment to the stock market. The Shanghai Composite Index continues to consolidate around 4000 points, and the slow - bull market continues. Stock index futures long positions should be mainly allocated to the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index and the CSI 300 Index for range trading [1][2][3] Trading Strategies - Stock index futures directional trading: Insurance funds continue to enter the market, strengthening the high - dividend and high - yield style. The Shanghai Composite Index continues to consolidate around 4000 points, and the slow - bull market continues. Stock index futures long positions should be mainly allocated to the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index and the CSI 300 Index for range trading [3] - Stock index option trading: The stock index is in a large - scale oscillation range. For long - term deep - out - of - the - money call options of the stock index, it is advisable to observe more and trade less [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for coking coal and coke in the black sector is "Bearish and volatile" [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The coking coal market experienced a significant correction yesterday. The near - month contracts dropped by over 3%, and the far - month contracts declined by nearly 2%. The National Development and Reform Commission emphasized energy supply guarantee, which boosted coal supply and led to a bearish market sentiment. Although the spot auction prices remained strong, the short - term futures market is expected to decline due to sentiment. The coking coal should be viewed bearishly in the short term [1] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Market Review - Yesterday, the coking coal main contract Jm2601 closed at 1213.0, down 4.5% from the daytime session opening. The coke main contract J2601 closed at 1685.0, down 3.36% from the daytime session opening. In the night session, Jm2601 closed at 1216.5, up 0.29% from the daytime session close, and J2601 closed at 1691.5, up 0.39% from the daytime session close [1] 2. Important Information - The US announced a suspension of the export - control penetration rule from November 10, 2025, to November 9, 2026. The Chinese Ministry of Commerce responded that this is an important measure for the US to implement the consensus of the China - US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur. The arrangement after the one - year suspension will be further discussed [1] - The deputy director of the Investment Department of the National Development and Reform Commission said that the commission has recommended 18 private investment projects to the CSRC, 14 of which have been issued and listed, with a total fund - raising of nearly 30 billion yuan. A total of 105 infrastructure REITs projects have been recommended, and 83 have been issued and listed [1] - Henan Energy Group and Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Group signed a strategic restructuring framework agreement on November 7. Henan Energy Group will become a wholly - owned subsidiary of Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Group [1] - From January to October this year, the production and sales of new - energy vehicles reached 13.015 million and 12.943 million respectively, up 33.1% and 32.7% year - on - year. In October, the monthly sales of new - energy vehicles exceeded 50% of the total new - vehicle sales for the first time [1] 3. Market Logic - The coking coal market corrected significantly yesterday. The National Development and Reform Commission's emphasis on energy supply guarantee boosted coal supply and led to a bearish market sentiment. Although the spot auction prices were strong, the short - term futures market is expected to decline due to sentiment [1] 4. Trading Strategy - Pay attention to the support level below 1200 for the coking coal main contract. View it bearishly in the short term [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. Core View of the Report - The Tuesday decline of the major indices in the two markets was a normal technical correction, and after 14:00, the decline stopped and the market consolidated. The subsequent market is expected to oscillate and rise, continuing the slow - bull trend. The main index futures should be long - positioned with the CSI 300 index as the main focus, and conduct range trading. For index options, in the large - scale oscillation range, it is advisable to observe rather than act rashly on the far - month deep - out - of - the - money call options [1][3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Tuesday, the major indices in the two markets oscillated and declined, with a trading volume of 1.99 trillion yuan, showing a decline in volume during the correction. The CSI 300 index closed at 4652, down 42 points or - 0.91%; the SSE 50 index closed at 3034, down 19 points or - 0.63%; the CSI 500 index closed at 7291, down 52 points or - 0.71%; the CSI 1000 index closed at 7540, down 22 points or - 0.30%. Among industry and theme ETFs, the top gainers were the Science and Technology Innovation New Energy ETF, etc., and the top losers were the Communication ETF, etc. Among the sector indices in the two markets, the top gainers were the Cultured Diamond index, etc., and the top losers were the Consumer Electronics index, etc. The CSI 500, CSI 300, CSI 1000, and SSE 50 index futures saw net outflows of 35, 25, 7, and 5 billion yuan respectively in the settled funds [1]. Important Information - The State Council Information Office held a regular policy briefing, releasing a strong signal of "promoting innovation through scenarios and stimulating vitality through openness". A special action implementation plan for "AI + manufacturing" will be introduced, and the "Robot +" application action will be deeply implemented. The Ministry of Science and Technology will strengthen the dominant position of enterprises in technological innovation. Overseas asset management institutions are optimistic about China, but large - scale capital inflows still need time. The "Guidance on Promoting New Energy Consumption and Regulation" was released, aiming to basically establish a multi - level new energy consumption and regulation system by 2030. The Chinese Academy of Sciences made important progress in perovskite solar cells. Analysts estimated that there will be a huge capital gap in the construction of AI data centers in the next five years. Goldman Sachs believes that the current corporate leverage ratio is not high, and the credit spread is narrow. The correlation between the S&P 500 index and NVIDIA is higher than that with the equal - weighted index of its 500 constituent companies. The silver reserves in the London vault increased significantly in October, ending the "silver squeeze" stage. BlackRock's private debt investment in a home improvement company was re - valued at zero. Trump's "tariff rebate" plan may cost up to $600 billion, which may lead to inflation [1][2]. Market Logic - The market decline on Tuesday was a normal technical correction. The policy briefing released a positive signal, and companies such as Alibaba are increasing investment in AI infrastructure. The US is planning or building large - scale data centers, and NVIDIA's CEO is optimistic about China's AI development. Goldman Sachs is optimistic about the stock markets in Hong Kong and the Chinese mainland [2][3]. Future Outlook - The major indices in the two markets are expected to oscillate and rise, continuing the slow - bull trend. The 4000 - point level of the Shanghai Composite Index has become an important support, and it is expected to reach new highs in the oscillation. The shift of Chinese capital to stocks may have started, and China has re - entered the vision of overseas investors. Stable stock markets can boost consumption and strengthen the internal economic cycle [3]. Trading Strategy - For index futures directional trading, long - position the index futures mainly with the CSI 300 index and conduct range trading. For index option trading, when the index is in a large - scale oscillation range, observe rather than act rashly on the far - month deep - out - of - the - money call options [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel sector in the black building materials is "volatile" [1] Core Viewpoint - The supply and demand of steel coils are both weak, and the price is expected to show a volatile trend. The 3000 level of rebar still has strong resilience. It is recommended to continue holding the long positions initiated around 3000, and stop loss if it effectively breaks below 3000 [1] Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Review - Rebar and hot-rolled coils closed higher on Monday and continued to rise in the night session [1] Important Information - Starting from November 10th, affected by adverse meteorological conditions, many places in Henan may experience continuous moderate pollution weather processes, and several cities have launched orange warnings for heavy pollution weather [1] - The US Trade Representative's Office announced that it will suspend the 301 investigation and restrictive measures on China's maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding industries starting from November 10th [1] - Baowu Steel's ex-factory prices in December will remain the same as in November. The estimated tax-excluded base prices for December are 4535 yuan/ton for hot-rolled Q235B, 8431 yuan/ton for cold-rolled DC01, and 9147 yuan/ton for hot-dip galvanized DC51D+Z [1] - The US Senate passed a temporary appropriation bill to end the government "shutdown" on November 9th, local time. The bill will provide funds for the government until January 30, 2026. The government shutdown may end before this weekend [1] - According to the data from the Passenger Car Association, the retail sales of the national passenger car market in October were 2.242 million vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 0.8%. From January to October, the cumulative retail sales of the national passenger car market were 19.25 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 7.9%. The retail sales of the new energy passenger car market in October were 1.282 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 7.3% and a month-on-month decrease of 1.3%. From January to October, the cumulative retail sales were 10.151 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 21.9% [1] Market Logic - On Monday, most steel coil prices remained flat, with a few declining, and the trading volume was average. During the macro policy vacuum period, the trend of steel coils depends on the fundamentals. Last week, the production of steel coils decreased. The rebar inventory decreased, and the de-stocking speed is expected to slow down as the peak season turns to the off-season. The hot-rolled coil inventory increased, showing poor inventory performance. The apparent demand for both rebar and hot-rolled coils decreased. The demand for rebar is expected to weaken further, while the demand for hot-rolled coils may not change much in the short term. On the supply side, some blast furnaces were shut down for maintenance last week, and the capacity utilization rate of electric arc furnaces decreased. This week, many places in Hebei lifted the emergency response for heavy pollution weather, and attention should be paid to the resumption of blast furnace production. Overall, the supply of crude steel is in a downward trend, and the demand side in the off-season is still relatively weak [1] Trading Strategy - It is recommended to continue holding the long positions of rebar initiated around 3000 and stop loss if it effectively breaks below 3000 [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The negative impact of the October supply - demand data of Malaysian palm oil from MPOB has been fully digested, and the export data has increased significantly, exceeding expectations. The overall data for October is more positive than expected. The vegetable oil sector has shown a trend of bottoming out after the release of the Malaysian palm oil supply - demand report, and new long positions can be entered [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Production - Reuters expected the production in October 2025 to be 194.4 million tons (+5.6%), the actual production in October 2025 was 204.4 million tons (+11.02%), the production in September 2025 was 184.1 million tons, and the production in October 2024 was 179.7 million tons [2]. Supply - demand Data | Indicator | October 2025 (Actual) | October 2025 (Expected) | Other Data | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Production (million tons) | 204.4 (+11.02%) | 194.4 (+5.6%) | September 2025: 184.1; October 2024: 179.7 | | Import (million tons) | 3.6 (-53.73%) | 6 (-23.1%) | - | | Export (million tons) | 169.3 (+18.58%) | 148.2 (+3.8%) | - | | Ending Inventory (million tons) | 246.4 (+4.44%) | 244.4 (+3.5%) | - | [5] Market Outlook - Short - term continuous weakness in domestic palm oil futures, with an expected higher opening in the afternoon. The unusually high export volume of Malaysian palm oil in October may lead to an upward adjustment of the export forecast for November and a downward adjustment of the inventory forecast for November [3].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the given content. 2. Report's Core View - The global economic situation is complex. The US government's "shutdown" crisis is about to be resolved, with about $1 trillion of TGA funds expected to flow back into the economic system, injecting large - scale liquidity. However, the global economy is entering the top - region due to the US's continuous wrong policies. The AI application is moving from the concept to the practical stage, but there are signs that AI demand may be moderating. There are also significant capital flows and style changes in the stock market, such as US funds flowing into Japanese technology and AI sectors [1][2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro and Financial - Global Economy - **Policy and Liquidity**: The US Senate passed a temporary appropriation bill to end the government "shutdown", providing funds until January 30, 2026. About $1 trillion of TGA funds is expected to return to the economic system, and the increase in S&P 500 index futures open - interest by about $21 billion indicates new long - position entry [1]. - **AI Development**: In Q3 2025, 24% of AI - adopting enterprises have achieved quantifiable benefits. Compared with the 1999 dot - com bubble, current leading enterprises have a free cash flow yield of 3.5% (1.2% in 2000), showing fundamental support for high valuations. But the slowdown in TSMC's monthly sales growth is seen as a sign of possible easing AI demand, leading to a sell - off of tech stocks last week [1]. - **US Consumption**: Pandemic - accumulated excess savings of US households are almost exhausted, but the high ratio of household net worth to disposable income, mainly due to asset values like stocks, still supports consumption to some extent [1]. - **Stock Market Capital Flow**: US funds are flowing into Japanese technology and AI sectors at the fastest pace since "Abenomics", potentially triggering a shift from value to growth stocks. However, Citigroup warns that Japanese tech stocks are over - valued [1]. - **Fed Policy**: Powell's cautious remarks after the October rate cut suggest that December rate cut needs data support. Current alternative data shows a gradual cooling of the labor market, giving the Fed a reason to pause rate cuts [1]. 3.2 Global Economic Logic - **AI and Geopolitics**: NVIDIA CEO Huang Renxun believes China will win the AI competition due to a more favorable regulatory environment and lower energy costs [2]. - **Stock Market Outlook**: Goldman Sachs CEO is optimistic about the Hong Kong and mainland Chinese stock markets, stating that many Chinese stocks are "very attractive" with rising global valuations [2]. - **Data Center Construction**: The US is planning or building data center projects with a total capacity of over 45 gigawatts and an expected investment of over $2.5 trillion. There is a shortage of construction workers for data centers [2]. - **AI Energy Demand**: Apollo Global Management warns of a huge gap between AI's large energy demand and the current global power supply, which may not be filled in our lifetime [2]. - **US Market Valuation**: The US stock market's cyclically - adjusted price - to - earnings ratio (Shiller P/E) has reached 40 for the second time in history, similar to the 1999 dot - com bubble [2]. - **US Consumption and Employment**: Consumption in the US is slowing, especially among the 25 - 35 - year - old middle - income group. In October, US corporate layoffs reached 153,074, mainly in the tech and warehousing industries, a 183% increase from September and nearly three times that of last year, which may be an economic warning signal [2].

Group 1: Core Data - As of November 7, the Mongolian coal inventory at the Ganqimao Port was 2672500 tons, with a cumulative inventory increase of 300000 tons [1] - Inventory data and their month - on - month changes from July 10, 2025 to November 7, 2025 are presented in a table, such as on July 10, 2025, the inventory was 355 (unit not specified), with a month - on - month decrease of 2; on July 19, 2025, the inventory was 286, with a month - on - month decrease of 6; on October 7, 2025, the inventory was 200, with a month - on - month decrease of 9 [3]