Morning session notice 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 5 月 28 日星期三 早盘提示 | | | --- | 重要事项: 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料，格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 格林大华期货研究院所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制发布， 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 研究员： 吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 周二 ...

-鸡蛋期货再创新低 近期持续建议关注高空机会 2025年05月27日 > 下跌驱动分析 今日鸡蛋期货主力合约破位下跌,截至收稿盘中2507合约跌 至2889元/500千克,跌幅2.56%。 1、现货方面,近期现货价格持续走弱,昨日现货止跌。26日 河北邯郸馆陶鸡蛋价格为2.64元/斤,已跌至除2020年之外的近 五年次低点。 > 后币观点 前期重点提示关注2507合约承压后的波段做空机会,当前关 注3000压力效果,若压力有效则方向不变,反之建议前期空单 适量止盈。上周重点建议关注2508合约波段做空机会,若3600 压力有效则方向不变。亦可等待6月现货供给压力释放后的远月 合约波段做多机会。 数据米波:唐易大师、早创哈试 容员:张晓君 人业资格:F0242716 交易谷间资格:Z0011 告情品已做最新爱更,也不保证分析师做出的任何建议不会发生任何受更。在任何情况下,报告中的信息或所表达 时后思以米凉十公开觉料,花公司对这些信息的准确性及元整生个作士何保证,个标让放 联系电话0371-65617380 2、分析逻辑:短期来看,低价冷库启动叠加端午临近消费走 好,蛋价短期止跌反弹,节后能否延续反弹关注库存水平 ...

Morning session notice 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 5 月 27 日星期二 研究员： 吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 周一尿素主力合约 2509 期价下跌 21 元至 1816 元/吨，华中主流地区尿素现货价格 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 下跌 30 元至 1850 元/吨，多头持仓增加 5979 手至 17.55 万手，空头持仓增加 3862 手至 16.51 万手。 【重要资讯】 1、供应方面，尿素行业日产 20.46 万吨，较上一工作日减少 0.02 万吨，较去年同 期增加 3.12 万吨；开工 88.96%，较去年同期 80.07%提升 8.89%。 | | | | 加 | 2、库存方面，中国尿素企业总库存量 91.74 万吨，较上周增加 10.02 万吨，环比增 12.26%。尿素港口库存 20.3 万吨，环比增加 4 万吨。 ...

Morning session notice | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 昨日 SR509 合约收盘价 5835 元/吨，日涨幅 0.03%。夜盘收于 5809 元/吨。SR601 合 约收盘价 5699 元/吨，日涨幅 0.11%，夜盘收 5678 元/吨。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1.昨日英美金融市场适逢假期休市，外盘无报价。 | | | | | 2.昨日广西白糖现货成交价6069元/吨，下跌24元/吨；广西制糖集团报价6110~6190 | | | | | 元/吨，部分下调 10 元/吨；云南制糖集团报价 5890~5940 元/吨，下调 10~20 元/ | | | | | 吨；加工糖厂主流报价区间 6360~6940 元/吨，调整区间为 10~20 元/吨，涨跌不一。 | | | | | 3.美国农业部（USDA）近日发布报告，预计 2025/26 榨季全球食糖产量增长 860 万 | | | | | 吨至 1.893 亿吨，巴西和印度产量提升将抵消欧盟减产。港口等 ...

| 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 上周五国债期货主力合约开盘，2 年期和 5 年期品种平开，10 年期和 30 年期品种 低开，早盘震荡下行，午后探明当日底部后转为上涨，下午后半程横向波动，截至 收盘 30 年期国债期货主力合约 TL2509 上涨 0.04%，10 年期 T2509 上涨 0.04%，5 年期 TF2509 上涨 0.07%，2 年期 TS2509 上涨 0.04%。 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、公开市场：上周五央行开展了 1425 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作，当日有 1065 亿元 逆回购到期，当日实现净投放 360 亿元。 | | | | | 2、资金市场：上周五银行间资金市场短期利率较上一交易日上行，DR001 全天加权 平均为 1.57%，上一交易日加权平均 1.48%；DR007 全天加权平均为 1.59%，上一交 易日加权平均 1.57%。 | | 宏观与金 融 | 国债 | TL、T、 TF、TS （震荡） | 3、现券市场：上周五银行间国债现券收盘收益率较上一交易日窄幅 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a bullish rating for IH, IF, and a moderately bullish rating for IM, IC in the macro and financial sector regarding stock index futures [1]. 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term sharp drops in the stock market on Friday afternoon do not affect the long - term bullish outlook for the four major indices. The reduction of the 1 - year deposit rate below 1% is expected to drive the transfer of household savings and insurance funds to the stock market. The market style is likely to shift to the cyclical value style represented by the Shanghai 50 Index. The inflow of foreign capital in the next few quarters will be the main trading logic, and the market expects free - cash - flow and dividend - related ETFs to benefit the most [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Friday afternoon around 2 pm, the main indices of the two markets weakened suddenly, with a small intraday decline. The trading volume of the two markets was 1.15 trillion yuan, showing little change. The Shanghai 50 Index closed at 2711 points, down 21 points or - 0.80%; the CSI 300 Index closed at 3882 points, down 31 points or - 0.81%; the CSI 500 Index closed at 5653 points, down 50 points or - 0.88%; the CSI 1000 Index closed at 5989 points, down 76 points or - 1.26%. Among industry and theme ETFs, those with the highest gains were Auto ETF, Gold Stocks ETF, etc., and those with the highest losses were Fintech ETF, Gaming ETF, etc. Among the sector indices of the two markets, the top - rising ones were Controllable Nuclear Fusion, Passenger Vehicles, etc., and the top - falling ones were Industrial Internet, Sora Concept, etc. The futures of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices saw net inflows of 12, 44, 16, and 2 billion yuan respectively [1]. Important Information - The CSRC stated that it will support high - quality unprofitable technology companies to list and promote the implementation of new cases under the fifth listing standard of the Science and Technology Innovation Board, and support high - quality red - chip technology companies to return to the domestic market [1]. - The central bank conducted a 5000 - billion - yuan MLF operation on May 23, with a net injection of 3750 billion yuan after deducting the 1250 - billion - yuan maturity [1]. - The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers summarized the experience of anti - "malicious involution" work, and self - discipline has become a key word in the automotive industry [1]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange plans to improve the product system suitable for new productive forces and promote the R & D and listing of products such as cast aluminum alloy, and improve the institutional mechanism [1]. - Shipping companies such as CMA CGM and MSC plan to add a peak - season surcharge of up to $2000 per 40 - foot container from June 1, with a 156% increase in freight rates in two weeks [1]. - Huatai Securities believes that after the Hong Kong Stock Exchange reform in 2018, liquidity has improved significantly, and consumer and technology sectors account for half of the Hong Kong stock market [1]. - Some European Central Bank officials believe that the April interest - rate cut was an "advance" of the June cut, with a 90% probability of a cut next month and another cut expected this year [2]. - The US existing - home market in April was unexpectedly cold, with a 0.5% month - on - month decline in sales volume and an annualized sales volume of only 4 million units, the worst April since 2009 [2]. - Driven by new orders, the preliminary value of the US Markit Manufacturing PMI in May was 52.3, a three - month high, and the preliminary value of the Services PMI was 52.3, a two - month high [2]. - Fed Governor Christopher Waller said that if the Trump administration maintains tariffs at about 10%, the Fed may start cutting interest rates in the second half of 2025 [2]. - US President Trump plans to impose a 50% tariff on EU - imported goods starting from June 1 [2]. Market Logic - The short - term sharp drop in the stock market on Friday afternoon is not a concern. The central bank's MLF net injection and the CSRC's support for technology companies' listing, along with the 1 - year deposit rate falling below 1%, are expected to drive funds into the stock market [2]. Future Outlook - The short - term sharp drop on Friday afternoon does not affect the long - term bullish outlook for the four major indices. The decline of the 1 - year deposit rate is expected to drive funds into the stock market, and foreign capital inflow will be the main trading logic. The market style is expected to shift to the cyclical value style, and the market is expected to be dominated by the Shanghai 50 Index [2]. Trading Strategy - In stock index futures directional trading, the 1 - year deposit rate falling below 1% is expected to drive funds into the stock market, and the market style may shift to the cyclical value style. The short - term sharp drop on Friday does not affect the long - term bullish outlook for the four major indices [2]. - In stock index option trading, as the market is in a consolidation period, it is recommended to suspend the purchase of far - month deep - out - of - the - money call options [2].

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 研究员： 卫立 从业资格：F3075802 交易咨询资格：Z0018108 联系方式：010-56711700 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 铜价保持震荡；LME 期铜涨 0.34%，收至 9519.5；沪铜主连跌 0.13%，收至 77820；COMEX 铜主连跌 0.1%，收至 4.6735。 【重要资讯】 1、美国 5 月标普全球服务业 PMI 初值为 52.3，预期 50.8；5 月标普全球制造业 PMI 初 值为 52.3，预期 50.1。美国 30 年期国债收益率升至 5.15%，续刷 2023 年 10 月以来最 高水平。据 CME"美联储观察"：美联储 6 月维持利率不变的概率为 94.6%，降息 25 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 有色与贵 | 铜 | 震 荡 偏 | 个基点的概率为 5.4%。美联储 7 月维持利率不变的概率为 73.1%，累计降息 25 个基点 的概率为 25.7%，累计降息 50 个基点的概率为 1.2%。(金十数 ...

期货研究院 格林大华期货研究院专题报告 | | | | 农林畜产品研究员： | 李方磊 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F03104461 | | 交易咨询证号： | Z0021311 | | 联系方式： | 0371-65616145 | 格林大华期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1288号 成文时间：2025年5月23日星期五 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 天然橡胶压力仍存 低位震荡等待驱动 摘要： 此前因美国关税导致的全球经济衰退预期令天然橡胶期 价于清明节后一字跌停，随后便在14400-14900区间内展开了 为期一个多月的震荡整理走势。而5月12日，中美联合声明发 表后令宏观局势短暂松绑，胶价在此消息影响下有所走强，但 在主力合约触及15300上方后盘面再度转弱，截至5月22日夜盘 已跌至14785元/吨。 当前阻碍天胶上行的主要原因仍在需求端，去库难以提速 和轮胎成品走货偏慢直接反应当下天然橡胶的需求表现并不 乐观。好在目前全球天胶供应仍处过渡期，同时泰国前期宣布 延期一个月开割且近期部分产区存在降雨影响，原料价格仍相 对坚挺。但从整体来看，今年海内外天 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report is generally bullish on the four major stock index futures (IH, IF, IM, IC), with a bias towards long positions [1]. Core Viewpoints - The performance of A-share listed companies in 2024 was generally resilient, with three - quarters of companies profitable and half of them seeing profit growth. The market is expected to attract foreign capital inflows in the next few quarters. The reduction of the 1 - year deposit rate is expected to drive the transfer of savings and insurance funds to the stock market. The market style is expected to shift to the cyclical value style represented by the Shanghai 50 Index. The four major stock indices are bullish in the long - term, and short - term fluctuations can be ignored [1][2]. Summary by Directory Market Review - On Thursday, the major indices of the two markets showed a differentiated trend. Value - cycle indices were strong, while growth indices were weak. The bank ETF was close to a new high. The trading volume of the two markets was 1.10 trillion yuan, with a slight decline. The Shanghai 50 Index rose 0.19%, the CSI 300 Index fell 0.06%, the CSI 500 Index fell 0.95%, and the CSI 1000 Index fell 1.08%. Among industry and theme ETFs, game ETFs, bank ETFs, etc. led the gains, while battery ETFs, etc. led the losses. Among the sector indices of the two markets, game, small and medium - sized banks, etc. led the gains, while medical beauty, etc. led the losses. The CSI 1000, CSI 500, and Shanghai 50 Index stock index futures saw net inflows of 590 million, 160 million, and 10 million yuan respectively [1]. Important Information - The group of dynamic listed companies is rewriting the global asset allocation logic. A - share listed companies' performance in 2024 was generally resilient. UBS is optimistic about the Chinese stock market, and foreign capital inflows will be the main trading logic in the next few quarters. ETF - FOF is in a new development opportunity period. The coal industry is expected to rise. China's gold imports in April reached a new high in 11 months. OPEC+ is competing with US shale oil producers for market share. The demand for Japanese government bond auctions hit a new low, and yields soared. Amazon is not affected by consumer tightening. US retail trading volume and net buying reached new highs. US long - term government bond auctions were dismal, and yields rose. Hedge funds increased their investment in Chinese companies listed in the US in Q1 2025 [1][2]. Market Logic - The performance of A - share listed companies in 2024 was generally resilient. The reduction of the 1 - year deposit rate is beneficial to the market. Foreign capital inflows will be the main trading logic in the next few quarters [1][2]. Future Outlook - The value - based indices of the two markets continued to strengthen on Thursday. The reduction of the 1 - year deposit rate is beneficial to the market. The performance of A - share listed companies in 2024 was generally resilient. The price of Shanghai - US West Line 40 - foot containers has increased significantly. Foreign capital inflows will be the main trading logic in the next few quarters. The reduction of the 1 - year deposit rate is expected to drive the transfer of savings and insurance funds to the stock market. Free cash flow - based ETFs and dividend - based ETFs are expected to benefit the most. Overseas institutional funds will flow into the A - share market on a large scale. The market style is expected to shift to the cyclical value style represented by the Shanghai 50 Index. The four major stock indices are bullish in the long - term, and short - term fluctuations can be ignored [2]. Trading Strategies - Stock index futures directional trading: The reduction of the 1 - year deposit rate is expected to drive the transfer of savings and insurance funds to the stock market. The market style is expected to shift to the cyclical value style represented by the Shanghai 50 Index. The four major stock indices are bullish in the long - term, and short - term fluctuations can be ignored. Stock index option trading: The market is in a consolidation period to repair technical indicators. It is recommended to suspend long - term deep - out - of - the - money call options [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The Chinese economy in April maintained resilience, with industrial production and exports better than market expectations, while fixed - asset investment and consumption were slightly below expectations [1][3] - After the Sino - US economic and trade talks, there was a "rush to ship" in US - bound shipping, and after the central bank's reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate cut in May, it is unlikely to cut the reserve requirement ratio and interest rate again in the short - to - medium term [3] - The 90 - day window period reached in the Sino - US economic and trade talks brought a short - term respite to the market, but long - term uncertainties remain [3] - The prices of the main contracts of treasury bond futures continued to fluctuate horizontally on Thursday, and the short - term of treasury bond futures may continue to fluctuate [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Thursday, the main contracts of treasury bond futures opened higher across the board, fluctuated slightly downward in the morning session, and showed horizontal fluctuations in the afternoon. As of the close, the 30 - year treasury bond futures main contract TL2509 fell 0.04%, the 10 - year T2509 rose 0.01%, the 5 - year TF2509 remained flat, and the 2 - year TS2509 remained flat [1] Important Information - Open market: On Thursday, the central bank conducted 154.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 64.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, resulting in a net investment of 90 billion yuan [1] - Money market: On Thursday, the short - term interest rates in the inter - bank money market declined slightly compared with the previous trading day. The weighted average of DR001 for the whole day was 1.48% (1.51% in the previous trading day), and the weighted average of DR007 for the whole day was 1.57% (unchanged from the previous trading day) [1] - Cash bond market: On Thursday, the closing yields of inter - bank treasury bonds fluctuated narrowly compared with the previous trading day. The yield to maturity of 2 - year treasury bonds rose 0.26 BP to 1.48%, the 5 - year rose 0.02 BP to 1.56%, the 10 - year rose 0.86 BP to 1.72%, and the 30 - year rose 0.20 BP to 1.89% [1] - Eurozone: On May 22, it was announced that the preliminary value of the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI in May was 49.4 (expected 49.3, previous value 49.0); the preliminary value of the service PMI in May was 48.9, the lowest level since January 2024 (expected 50.3, previous value 50.1) [1] - US: On May 22, it was announced that the preliminary value of the US S&P Global manufacturing PMI in May was 52.3 (expected 50.1, previous value 50.2), and the preliminary value of the US S&P Global service PMI in May was 52.3 (expected 50.8, previous value 50.8) [1] Market Logic - From January to April, the national fixed - asset investment increased by 4.0% year - on - year (market expectation 4.3%, 4.2% from January to March). In April, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5.1% year - on - year (market expectation 5.5%, 5.9% in March). In April, the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 6.1% year - on - year in real terms (market expectation 5.2%, 6.5% year - on - year in the first quarter) [1] - In April, China's exports denominated in US dollars increased by 8.1% year - on - year (market forecast 2.0%, 12.4% in March). In April, China's exports to ASEAN increased by 20.8% (11.55% in March), and exports to the US decreased by 21.03% year - on - year (9.09% in March). Due to the impact of tariffs, China's exports to the US decreased significantly in April, while exports to ASEAN accelerated, possibly due to re - export factors [1] Trading Strategy - For trading - oriented investments, conduct band operations. [3]