研究员： 张晓君 从业资格：F0242716 交易咨询资格：Z0011864 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 02 月 02 日星期一 联系方式：0371-65617380 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | 上周五夜盘玉米期货震荡整理，截至夜盘收盘主力合约 2603 合约跌幅 0.26%，收于 | | | | | 2271 元/吨。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、中国粮油商务网监测数据显示截至1月30日北方港口四港玉米库存共计约163万 | | | | | 吨，北方港口到货情况较好，晨间集港超过3万吨。广东港口玉米库存66万吨，内贸 | | | | | 玉米日均出货在4.3万吨；饲料企业备货需求减弱，执行合同为主。 | | | | | 2、中储粮2026年第5周各公司玉米竞价采购计划共计56.62万吨，实际成交15.15万 | | | | | 吨，成交率27%；竞价销售计划共计21.57万 ...

联系方式：010-56711796 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 2 月 2 日星期一 研究员： 纪晓云 从业资格： F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 Morning session notice 早盘提示 | | | | | | | 钢材: 【行情复盘】 周五螺纹热卷收跌。夜盘收跌。 【重要资讯】 1、交通运输部：2025 年预计完成交通固定资产投资超 3.6 万亿元。 2、据产业在线最新发布的三大白电排产报告显示，2026 年 2 月空冰洗排产合计总 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黑色建材 | 钢材 | 2 震荡 | 量共计 2379 万台，较去年同期生产实绩下降 22.1%。 3、Mysteel 调研 95 家独立电弧炉钢厂春节停产情况，多集中在 2 月份停产，其中 月 1 日至 2 月 8 日停产钢厂最多，为 44 家，占 47.83%，接近一半水平。剩余 9 家钢厂将于 2 月 8 日之后陆续停产，最晚停产的钢厂将于 2 月 15 日停产。 4、湖北建筑钢材钢厂冬储调研显示，锁 ...

证监许可【2011】1288 号 农林畜产品分册 2026 年度报告中国期货期权市场年度报告 养殖饲料：将求岁德成，独抱深严虑 ——2026 年重点关注养殖去产能"预期差" 格林大华期货研究院 张晓君 交易咨询资格：Z0011864 摘要 2026 年玉米品种观点及操作建议——供求格局基本平衡，全年或维持区间运行 品种观点：中短期来看，围绕新季玉米驱动展开波段交易，下有支撑、上有压力或维持宽 幅区间交易思路。长期来看，仍然维持谷物替代+种植成本的定价逻辑，重点关注产业政 策导向。交易策略：中长期维持区间交易思路，在政策粮源投放前维持低多思路，上方空 间不宜过分乐观；待政策性粮源投放落地，关注波段高空机会。期货盘面下方支撑关注 2050-2100 元/吨，上方压力关注 2300-2350 元/吨。 2026 年生猪市场观点及操作建议——弱现实强预期下交易去产能'预期差' 品种观点：从母猪存栏来看 2026 年 7 月前生猪出栏头数仍处于较高水平，今年 10 月到明 年 2 月的母猪存栏、生产效率决定了明年 8-12 月的生猪头数供给。若未来几个月能繁母 猪存栏整体稳中略降，排除疫病影响则母猪存栏下降幅度相对有限 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The global economy has passed its peak and is starting to decline due to the continuous wrong policies of the United States [4] - The return of the United States to the Monroe Doctrine will have a profound and subversive impact on major asset classes such as the global economy, US bonds, US stocks, the US dollar, precious metals, and industrial metals [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro and Financial - Global Economy - Trump nominates Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair, and Warsh may face tasks like reducing the $6.6 trillion balance - sheet, controlling inflation, and maintaining central bank independence [1] - On January 31, spot silver prices plunged 36% and spot gold prices dropped over 12%, with the new Fed chair's attitude challenging the gold bull - market logic [1] - SpaceX is applying to launch up to 1 million satellites, and its IPO valuation is expected to exceed $1.5 trillion with over $50 billion in financing [1] - US December PPI rose 0.5% month - on - month, indicating inflation pressure in the wholesale sector [1] - Japan did not actually intervene in the foreign exchange market in January, and the future of the yen is uncertain [1] - The US plans a "massive bombing" of Iran, and if Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz, it will cut off the global energy artery [1] Global Economic Logic - Bridgewater's Dalio warns of a potential US civil war and capital control risks, and the US dollar index hits a 4 - year low [2] - The New York Fed inquires about the yen exchange rate, and the "Plaza Accord 2.0" is speculated [2] - Fed uncertainties may peak from July to November 2026, leading to a "flight from US assets" [2] - The Fed cuts interest rates by 25 basis points in December and buys $40 billion in short - term bonds monthly [2] - Las Vegas gambling revenue decline is similar to the 2008 financial crisis early warning [2] - The US abandons global hegemony and will adjust economic relations with China [2] - Consumer K - type differentiation intensifies in the US [2] - TSMC's Q4 performance signals the continuation of the AI boom [2] - SpaceX aims to achieve full rocket reusability this year, reducing space access costs by 100 times [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In January 2026, the corn futures first rose and then declined, the live hog futures had small gains and large losses, and the egg futures were stronger in the near - term and weaker in the long - term. The spot prices of corn, live hogs, and eggs also showed different trends [7][8]. - For corn, the short - term spot may fluctuate weakly, the medium - term maintains a wide - range trading idea, and the long - term pricing logic is substitution + planting cost, focusing on policy guidance [16]. - For live hogs, the first quarter of 2026 may see the price first rise and then fall, the second quarter may see the supply form an inflection point, and the second half of the year is expected to strengthen but with limited upside [46][47][48]. - For eggs, the short - term price may weaken due to the end of pre - festival stocking, the medium - term may face a supply - demand imbalance after the Spring Festival, and the long - term price increase space may be limited by the continuous expansion of the breeding scale [72]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Previous Review - **Spot Review**: In January, the corn spot price fluctuated slightly stronger; the live hog price first rose and then declined; the egg price continued to rise supported by consumption [7]. - **Futures Review**: In January, the corn futures led the spot price and rose in shock; the live hog futures first rose and then fell, and the egg futures were stronger in the near - term and weaker in the long - term [8]. - **Strategy Review**: The previous strategies for corn, live hogs, and eggs were verified by the market [9]. 3.2 Corn Variety - **Macro Logic**: Internationally, the macro - drive is gradually weakening; domestically, it is mainly reflected in industrial policies [13]. - **Industry Logic**: It has entered the passive inventory - building cycle, focusing on policies such as reserve purchases, directional rice/imported corn auctions, and grain import policies [13]. - **Supply - Demand Logic**: The domestic corn supply - demand pattern in the 2025/26 period has turned to basic balance. In February 2026, the spot market may become lighter. Supply is affected by international and domestic factors, and demand is mainly from the breeding and deep - processing industries [14][15]. - **Variety View**: Short - term, the spot may fluctuate weakly; medium - term, maintain a wide - range trading idea; long - term, focus on policy orientation [16]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term, the market is weak, and the 2603 and 2605 contracts have support levels; medium - and long - term, maintain an interval trading idea [17]. 3.3 Live Hog Variety - **Macro Logic**: Pay attention to the interaction between China's CPI trend and hog prices, and focus on industrial policy orientation [43]. - **Industry Logic**: The breeding market structure may change under the guidance of capacity - reduction policies. The reduction of the sow inventory of leading group enterprises has basically been achieved, and the large - scale decline of the sow inventory in the next few months is unlikely [43]. - **Supply - Demand Logic**: Supply is affected by factors such as sow inventory, new - born piglets, production efficiency, and slaughter weight; demand is weak after the Spring Festival [44]. - **Market View**: The first quarter of 2026 may see the price first rise and then fall; the second quarter may see the supply form an inflection point; the second half of the year is expected to strengthen but with limited upside [46][47][48]. 3.4 Egg Variety - **Macro Logic**: Domestically, pay attention to raw material prices and CPI changes, and in the second half of the year, pay attention to the impact of meat and vegetable prices [69]. - **Industry Logic**: The market share of leading enterprises in the egg - laying hen breeding industry is relatively low. The industry is expected to transform from traditional decentralized breeding to intensive breeding, and the scale rate is expected to increase [70]. - **Supply - Demand Logic**: Egg prices are mainly driven by the supply side, and consumption is seasonally driven. The current capacity reduction is less than expected, and it is difficult to start a cycle - type market driven by over - culling [71]. - **Variety View**: Short - term, the price may weaken due to the end of pre - festival stocking; medium - term, the supply - demand imbalance may intensify after the Spring Festival; long - term, the price increase space may be limited by the continuous expansion of the breeding scale [72]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term, maintain a short - selling idea for near - term contracts; medium - and long - term, the capacity may be difficult to clear effectively in the first quarter, and breeding enterprises are recommended to lock in profits through far - term contracts [73].

2026年2月1日 1月30日COMEX黄金期货跌8.35%报4907.50美元/盎司，COMEX白银期货跌25.50%报85.25美元/盎司%。上周 五夜盘沪金主力合约下跌9.83%报1079.28元/克，沪银主力合约下跌17%报24832元/千克，沪银跌停。我们认为美 国总统提名美联储前理事沃什担任美联储主席仅仅是导火索，重要的是市场之前的连续大涨积累了大量的获利 盘，市场变得十分拥挤，而导火索则引发了获利回吐，并发生连锁反应，引起了市场的踩踏。期货市场是保证 金交易，如果不能及时补充保证金，则会被强制平仓，之前的多头仓位就转变成为空头的力量。为应对突然下 跌影响持有期货或期权的机构进行对冲操作，也可能助推了这次贵金属抛售。 市场快讯---金银大幅回落之后 美国总统称要求沃什降息不合适，降息无需白宫施压。沃什的专业履历有助于顺利通过美国国会的审批。 我们认为沃什虽然曾公开批评量化宽松政策的副作用，认为美联储需要与美国财政部在政策上更紧密地协作， 但并不能因此将沃什归为鹰派，沃什并不反对降息，而且美国总统经过权衡之后主动选择的人选至少不会和白 宫对着干。维护美联储的独立性，有利于市场回归有序的货币政策轨道， ...

F03087965 王子健 Z001955 联系方式：17803978037 2026年1月31日 2 格林大华期货棉花月报 3 海内外棉价走势回顾 ICE美棉03合约走势 郑棉05合约走势 数据来源：文华财经 4 5 据美国农业部（USDA）最新发布的1月份全球棉花供需预测报告，2025/26年度全球棉花 产量环比调减7.7万吨至2600.4万吨；消费环比调增6.8万吨至2589.1万吨；叠加期初库存减少， 本年度期末库存环比减少32万吨至1621.7万吨。 数据来源：USDA整理 7 税折人民币周均价与中国棉花价格指数周均价价差较前周大幅扩大5元/吨。 USDA：本年度供应调减&需求调增 期末库存下降（2026.1） 国际棉花现货周均价跌幅大于国内 内外棉价差微幅扩大 从价格表现来看， ICE期棉周均价64.08美分/磅，较前一周下跌0.75美分/磅;现货方面，Cotlook A指数周均价较前一周上涨下跌0.32美分/磅，为74.55美分/磅。 中国棉花价格指数CC Index3128B周均价为15853元/吨，较前一周下跌50元/吨;Cotlook A 1%关 美国棉花供需平衡表-美棉调降弃耕率&调降单 ...

市场快讯 -- 交易所持续严监管,多头止盈碳酸锂下行压力增加 ● 截止1月30日收盘,碳酸锂主力合约收盘价148200元 /吨跌停,日内减仓2.8万手,近三个交易日累计减 仓4.9万手,持仓量37.37万手。 基本面来看,根据市场数据,2月电池厂排产仍表现 出淡季不淡现象,根据富宝资讯,截止2026年1月29 日,当周碳酸锂产量2.24万吨,环比-0.44%,截止 2026年1月29日,碳酸锂库存10.48万吨,环增0.2% (增加约210吨),目前下游仍有备货需求,供需维 本周交易所再次发布市场风险提示函并持续进行市 场指导,调控市场过热,市场提前交易预期价格冲 高后,交易所意在平抑过度投机。叠加春节假期临 近,多头平仓离场意愿增强,盘面下行压力增加。 注意下方13.6万元/吨第一支撑位,13万元/吨第二 风险提示:春节假期临近,关注交易所政策,做好 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288号 > 碳酸锂 2026年1月30日 持紧平衡。 很支撑位。 仓位管理。 研究员:王琛 从业资格 F0276812 交易咨询:Z0021310 联系方式:wangchen@greendh.com ...

市场快讯---金银巨幅波动 注意调控风险 2026年1月30日 1月29日，COMEX黄金期货一度站上5600美元历史高位后跳水，一度较日高暴跌近9%，随后跌幅收窄； COMEX白银创下121美元的历史新高后，一度重挫超12%，然后大幅反弹。1月30日开盘至最新COMEX黄金和 COMEX白银连续下跌。1月30日沪金和沪银也大幅回落。1月28日起CME再次上调部分白银合约保证金比例，1 月29日宣布上调黄金、铜和部分铝期货的保证金水平。1月28日上期所宣布自1月30日（星期五）收盘结算时起调 整部分白银和黄金保证金比例。去年底以来交易所多次提高保证金，显示了对市场风险的担忧。之前数日黄金 和白银的连续大幅快速上涨后积累了较多的获利盘，短线大幅回调有形成短线头部的嫌疑，短线或剧烈波动。 提请投资者注意控制仓位，防控风险。 数据来源：Wind，格林大华期货 免责声明：本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证，不保证报告信息已做最新变更，也不保证分析师做出的任何建议不会发生任何变更。在任何情况下，报告中的信息或所表达的意见并不构成所述 期货品种买卖的出价或询价。在任何情况下，我公 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the copper sector is "oscillating bullish" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The core driver for copper prices breaking through historical highs is the concern about potential US tariffs on refined copper, which has led to a shift in global copper liquidity towards the US. Statements from the Fed Chair have also re - priced inflation and policy independence, benefiting metals with strong financial attributes like copper [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Quotes - The night - session closing price of the main Shanghai copper contract CU2603 was 106,900 yuan/ton, a 4.38% increase from the previous night - session closing price. The second - main contract CU2604 closed at 107,170 yuan/ton, with a 4.34% increase. As of 06:00, the COMEX copper main contract HGH26E closed at 6.282 US dollars/pound (equivalent to 96,197 yuan/ton after exchange - rate conversion), up 4.75% from the previous trading day. The LME copper main contract CA03ME closed at 13,705 US dollars/ton (equivalent to 95,195 yuan/ton after exchange - rate conversion), with a 4.73% increase [1] Important Information - Southern Copper's CFO expects the company's copper production to be 91.14 million tons in 2026, slightly over 90 million tons in 2027, lower than the 95.43 million tons in 2025 due to declining ore grades at major Peruvian mines [1] - Zambia's copper production in 2025 was about 89.03 million tons, an 8% increase from 82.55 million tons in 2024, but it failed to reach the 100 - million - ton target [1] - Deutsche Bank predicts that copper prices will reach a peak of 13,000 US dollars per ton in the second quarter and then decline in the second half of the year as production at major mines may increase [1] - A CITIC Securities research report states that the upward trend of copper - clad laminate prices is clear, with a potential gross - margin increase of over 10 percentage points, and is optimistic about the performance and stock - price elasticity of related leading companies [1] Market Logic - The fear of US tariffs on refined copper has caused a change in global copper liquidity. LME copper inventory in Europe has dropped from nearly 7 million tons to less than 1.4 million tons since April, while COMEX copper inventory has risen from less than 100,000 short tons to over 570,000 tons since April. Fed Chair Powell's statements have led to a re - pricing of inflation and policy independence, benefiting metals with strong financial attributes [1] Trading Strategy - There is currently no trading strategy provided [1]